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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2015

Addressing Interdependency in a Multimodel Ensemble by Interpolation of Model Properties

The diverse set of Earth system models used to conduct the CMIP5 ensemble can partly sample the uncertainties in future climate projections. However, combining those projections is complicated by the fact that models developed by different groups share ideas and code and therefore biases. The authors propose a method for combining model results into single or multivariate distributions that are more robust to the inclusion of models with a large degree of interdependency. This study uses a multivariate metric of present-day climatology to assess both model performance and similarity in two recent model intercomparisons, CMIP3 and CMIP5. Model characteristics can be interpolated and then resampled in a space defined by independent climate properties. A form of weighting can be applied by sampling more densely in the region of the space close to the projected observations, thus taking into account both model performance and interdependence. Furthermore, the choice of the sampling distribution’s parameters is a subjective decision that should reflect the researcher’s prior assumptions as to the acceptability of different model errors.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

A Representative Democracy to Reduce Interdependency in a Multimodel Ensemble

The collection of Earth system models available in the archive of phase 5 of CMIP (CMIP5) represents, at least to some degree, a sample of uncertainty of future climate evolution. The presence of duplicated code as well as shared forcing and validation data in the multiple models in the archive raises at least three potential problems: biases in the mean and variance, the overestimation of sample size, and the potential for spurious correlations to emerge in the archive because of model replication. Analytical evidence is presented to demonstrate that the distribution of models in the CMIP5 archive is not consistent with a random sample, and a weighting scheme is proposed to reduce some aspects of model codependency in the ensemble. A method is proposed for selecting diverse and skillful subsets of models in the archive, which could be used for impact studies in cases where physically consistent joint projections of multiple variables (and their temporal and spatial characteristics) are required.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Role of CO 2 , climate and land use in regulating the seasonal amplitude increase of carbon fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems: A multimodel analysis

We examined the net terrestrial carbon flux to the atmosphere (F TA ) simulated by nine models from the TRENDY dynamic global vegetation model project for its seasonal cycle and amplitude trend during 1961-2012. While some models exhibit similar phase and amplitude compared to atmospheric inversions, with spring drawdown and autumn rebound, others tend to rebound early in summer. The model ensemble mean underestimates the magnitude of the seasonal cycle by 40g% compared to atmospheric inversions. Global F TA amplitude increase (19 ± 8%) and its decadal variability from the model ensemble are generally consistent with constraints from surface atmosphere observations. However, models disagree on attribution of this long-term amplitude increase, with factorial experiments attributing 83 ± 56%, -3 ± 74 and 20 ± 30% to rising CO 2 , climate change and land use/cover change, respectively. Seven out of the nine models suggest that CO 2 fertilization is the strongest control -with the notable exception of VEGAS, which attributes approximately equally to the three factors. Generally, all models display an enhanced seasonality over the boreal region in response to high-latitude warming, but a negative climate contribution from part of the Northern Hemisphere temperate region, and the net result is a divergence over climate change effect. Six of the nine models show that land use/cover change amplifies the seasonal cycle of global < i > F TA : some are due to forest regrowth, while others are caused by crop expansion or agricultural intensification, as revealed by their divergent spatial patterns. We also discovered a moderate cross-model correlation between < i > F TA amplitude increase and increase in land carbon sink ( < i > R 2 Combining double low line 0.61). Our results suggest that models can show similar results in some benchmarks with different underlying mechanisms; therefore, the spatial traits of CO 2 fertilization, climate change and land use/cover changes are crucial in determining the right mechanisms in seasonal carbon cycle change as well as mean sink change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Multimodel simulation of vertical gas transfer in a temperate lake

In recent decades, several lake models of varying complexity have been developed and incorporated in numerical weather prediction systems and climate models. To foster enhanced forecasting ability and verification, improvement of these lake models remains essential. This especially applies to the limited simulation capabilities of biogeochemical processes in lakes and greenhouse gas exchanges with the atmosphere. Here we present multi-model simulations of physical variables and dissolved gas dynamics in a temperate lake (Harp Lake, Canada). The five models (ALBM, FLake, LAKE, LAKEoneD, MTCR-1) considered within this most recent round of the Lake Model Intercomparison Project (LakeMIP) all captured the seasonal temperature variability well. In contrast, none of the models is able to reproduce the exact dates of ice-cover and ice-off, leading to considerable errors in the simulation of eddy diffusivity around those dates.We then conducted an additional modeling experiment with a diffusing passive tracer to isolate the effect of the eddy diffusivity on gas concentration. Remarkably, sophisticated k -" models do not demonstrate a significant difference in the vertical diffusion of a passive tracer compared to models with much simpler turbulence closures. All models simulate less intensive spring overturn compared to autumn. Reduced mixing in the models consequently leads to the accumulation of the passive tracer distribution in the water column. The lake models with a comprehensive biogeochemical module, such as ALBM and LAKE, predict dissolved oxygen dynamics adequate to the observed data. However, for the surface carbon dioxide concentration the correlation between modeled (ALBM, LAKE) and observed data is weak (~0.3). Overall our results indicate the need to improve the representation of physical and biogeochemical processes in lake models, thereby contributing to enhanced weather prediction and climate projection capabilities.

Guseva, Sofya↗
NASA NTRS2010

Multimodel Assessment of the Factors Driving Stratospheric Ozone Evolution over the 21st Century

The evolution of stratospheric ozone from 1960 to 2100 is examined in simulations from 14 chemistry-climate models, driven by prescribed levels of halogens and greenhouse gases. There is general agreement among the models that total column ozone reached a minimum around year 2000 at all latitudes, projected to be followed by an increase over the first half of the 21st century. In the second half of the 21st century, ozone is projected to continue increasing, level off, or even decrease depending on the latitude. Separation into partial columns above and below 20 hPa reveals that these latitudinal differences are almost completely caused by differences in the model projections of ozone in the lower stratosphere. At all latitudes, upper stratospheric ozone increases throughout the 21st century and is projected to return to 1960 levels well before the end of the century, although there is a spread among models in the dates that ozone returns to specific historical values. We find decreasing halogens and declining upper atmospheric temperatures, driven by increasing greenhouse gases, contribute almost equally to increases in upper stratospheric ozone. In the tropical lower stratosphere, an increase in upwelling causes a steady decrease in ozone through the 21st century, and total column ozone does not return to 1960 levels in most of the models. In contrast, lower stratospheric and total column ozone in middle and high latitudes increases during the 21st century, returning to 1960 levels well before the end of the century in most models.

Oman, L. D.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Multimodel Estimates of Atmospheric Lifetimes of Long-lived Ozone-Depleting Substances: Present and Future

We have diagnosed the lifetimes of long-lived source gases emitted at the surface and removed in the stratosphere using six three-dimensional chemistry-climate models and a two-dimensional model. The models all used the same standard photochemical data. We investigate the effect of different definitions of lifetimes, including running the models with both mixing ratio (MBC) and flux (FBC) boundary conditions. Within the same model, the lifetimes diagnosed by different methods agree very well. Using FBCs versus MBCs leads to a different tracer burden as the implied lifetime contained in the MBC value does not necessarily match a model's own calculated lifetime. In general, there are much larger differences in the lifetimes calculated by different models, the main causes of which are variations in the modeled rates of ascent and horizontal mixing in the tropical midlower stratosphere. The model runs have been used to compute instantaneous and steady state lifetimes. For chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) their atmospheric distribution was far from steady state in their growth phase through to the 1980s, and the diagnosed instantaneous lifetime is accordingly much longer. Following the cessation of emissions, the resulting decay of CFCs is much closer to steady state. For 2100 conditions the model circulation speeds generally increase, but a thicker ozone layer due to recovery and climate change reduces photolysis rates. These effects compensate so the net impact on modeled lifetimes is small. For future assessments of stratospheric ozone, use of FBCs would allow a consistent balance between rate of CFC removal and model circulation rate

CFC↗
NASA NTRS2014

Sources, Sinks, and Transatlantic Transport of North African Dust Aerosol: A Multimodel Analysis and Comparison With Remote Sensing Data

This study evaluates model-simulated dust aerosols over North Africa and the North Atlantic from five global models that participated in the Aerosol Comparison between Observations and Models phase II model experiments. The model results are compared with satellite aerosol optical depth (AOD) data from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Multiangle Imaging Spectroradiometer (MISR), and Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor, dust optical depth (DOD) derived from MODIS and MISR, AOD and coarse-mode AOD (as a proxy of DOD) from ground-based Aerosol Robotic Network Sun photometer measurements, and dust vertical distributions/centroid height from Cloud Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization and Atmospheric Infrared Sounder satellite AOD retrievals. We examine the following quantities of AOD and DOD: (1) the magnitudes over land and over ocean in our study domain, (2) the longitudinal gradient from the dust source region over North Africa to the western North Atlantic, (3) seasonal variations at different locations, and (4) the dust vertical profile shape and the AOD centroid height (altitude above or below which half of the AOD is located). The different satellite data show consistent features in most of these aspects; however, the models display large diversity in all of them, with significant differences among the models and between models and observations. By examining dust emission, removal, and mass extinction efficiency in the five models, we also find remarkable differences among the models that all contribute to the discrepancies of model-simulated dust amount and distribution. This study highlights the challenges in simulating the dust physical and optical processes, even in the best known dust environment, and stresses the need for observable quantities to constrain the model processes.

Africa↗
NASA NTRS2016

Fast and Slow Precipitation Responses to Individual Climate Forcers: A PDRMIP Multimodel Study

Precipitation is expected to respond differently to various drivers of anthropogenic climate change. We present the first results from the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP), where nine global climate models have perturbed CO2, CH4, black carbon, sulfate, and solar insolation. We divide the resulting changes to global mean and regional precipitation into fast responses that scale with changes in atmospheric absorption and slow responses scaling with surface temperature change. While the overall features are broadly similar between models, we find significant regional intermodel variability, especially over land. Black carbon stands out as a component that may cause significant model diversity in predicted precipitation change. Processes linked to atmospheric absorption are less consistently modeled than those linked to top-of-atmosphere radiative forcing. We identify a number of land regions where the model ensemble consistently predicts that fast precipitation responses to climate perturbations dominate over the slow, temperature-driven responses.

environment effects↗
NASA NTRS2014

Multimodel Estimates of Atmospheric Lifetimes of Long-Lived Ozone-Depleting Substances: Present and Future

We have diagnosed the lifetimes of long-lived source gases emitted at the surface and removed in the stratosphere using six three-dimensional chemistry-climate models and a two-dimensional model. The models all used the same standard photochemical data. We investigate the effect of different definitions of lifetimes, including running the models with both mixing ratio (MBC) and flux (FBC) boundary conditions. Within the same model, the lifetimes diagnosed by different methods agree very well. Using FBCs versus MBCs leads to a different tracer burden as the implied lifetime contained in theMBC value does not necessarilymatch a model's own calculated lifetime. In general, there are much larger differences in the lifetimes calculated by different models, the main causes of which are variations in the modeled rates of ascent and horizontal mixing in the tropical midlower stratosphere. The model runs have been used to compute instantaneous and steady state lifetimes. For chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) their atmospheric distribution was far from steady state in their growth phase through to the 1980s, and the diagnosed instantaneous lifetime is accordingly much longer. Following the cessation of emissions, the resulting decay of CFCs is much closer to steady state. For 2100 conditions the model circulation speeds generally increase, but a thicker ozone layer due to recovery and climate change reduces photolysis rates. These effects compensate so the net impact on modeled lifetimes is small. For future assessments of stratospheric ozone, use of FBCs would allow a consistent balance between rate of CFC removal and model circulation rate.

CH3CCl3↗
NASA NTRS2019

Multimodel Analysis of Future Land Use and Climate Change Impacts on Ecosystem Functioning

Land use and climate changes both affect terrestrial ecosystems. Here, we used three combinations of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP1xRCP26, SSP3xRCP60, and SSP5xRCP85) as input to three dynamic global vegetation models to assess the impacts and associated uncertainty on several ecosystem functions: terrestrial carbon storage and fluxes, evapotranspiration, surface albedo, and runoff. We also performed sensitivity simulations in which we kept either land use or climate (including atmospheric CO2) constant from year 2015 on to calculate the isolated land use versus climate effects. By the 2080–2099 period, carbon storage increases by up to 87 ± 47 Gt (SSP1xRCP26) compared to present day, with large spatial variance across scenarios and models. Most of the carbon uptake is attributed to drivers beyond future land use and climate change, particularly the lagged effects of historic environmental changes. Future climate change typically increases carbon stocks in vegetation but not soils, while future land use change causes carbon losses, even for net agricultural abandonment (SSP1xRCP26). Evapotranspiration changes are highly variable across scenarios, and models do not agree on the magnitude or even sign of change of the individual effects. A calculated decrease in January and July surface albedo (up to −0.021 ± 0.007 and −0.004 ± 0.004 for SSP5xRCP85) and increase in runoff (+67 ± 6 mm/year) is largely driven by climate change. Overall, our results show that future land use and climate change will both have substantial impacts on ecosystem functioning. However, future changes can often not be fully explained by these two drivers and legacy effects have to be considered.

Krause, A.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Impacts of Varying Concentrations of Cloud Condensation Nuclei On Deep Convective Cloud Updrafts – A Multimodel Assessment

This study presents results from a model intercomparison project, focusing on the range of responses in deep convective cloud updrafts to varying cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations amongst seven, state-of-the-art, cloud-resolving models. Simulations of scattered convective clouds near Houston, Texas are conducted, after being initialized with both relatively low and high CCN concentrations. Deep convective updrafts are identified, and trends in the updraft intensity and frequency are assessed. The factors contributing to the vertical velocity tendencies are examined to identify the physical processes associated with the CCN-induced, updraft changes. The models show several consistent trends. In general, the changes between the High- CCN and Low-CCN simulations in updraft magnitudes throughout the depth of the troposphere are within 15% for all of the models. All models produce stronger (~+5-15%) mean updrafts from ~4–7 km above ground level (AGL) in the High-CCN simulations, followed by a waning response up to ~8 km AGL in most of the models. Thermal buoyancy was more sensitive than condensate loading to varying CCN concentrations in most of the models and more impactful in the mean updraft responses. However, there are also differences between the models. The change in the amount of deep convective updrafts varies significantly. Furthermore, approximately half the models demonstrate neutral-to-weaker (~-5-0%) updrafts above ~8 km AGL, while the other models show stronger (~+10%) updrafts in the High-CCN simulations. The combination of the CCN-induced impacts on the buoyancy and vertical perturbation pressure gradient terms better explains these middle- and upper-tropospheric updraft trends than the buoyancy terms alone.

deep convective cloud updrafts↗
NASA NTRS2019

Multimodel Analysis of Future Land Use and Climate Change Impacts on Ecosystem Functioning

Land use and climate changes both affect terrestrial ecosystems. Here, we used three combinations of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP1xRCP26, SSP3xRCP60, and SSP5xRCP85) as input to three dynamic global vegetation models to assess the impacts and associated uncertainty on several ecosystem functions: terrestrial carbon storage and fluxes, evapotranspiration, surface albedo, and runoff. We also performed sensitivity simulations in which we kept either land use or climate (including atmospheric CO2) constant from year 2015 on to calculate the isolated land use versus climate effects. By the 2080–2099 period, carbon storage increases by up to 87 ± 47 Gt (SSP1xRCP26) compared to present day, with large spatial variance across scenarios and models. Most of the carbon uptake is attributed to drivers beyond future land use and climate change, particularly the lagged effects of historic environmental changes. Future climate change typically increases carbon stocks in vegetation but not soils, while future land use change causes carbon losses, even for net agricultural abandonment (SSP1xRCP26). Evapotranspiration changes are highly variable across scenarios, and models do not agree on the magnitude or even sign of change of the individual effects. A calculated decrease in January and July surface albedo (up to −0.021 ± 0.007 and −0.004 ± 0.004 for SSP5xRCP85) and increase in runoff (+67 ± 6 mm/year) is largely driven by climate change. Overall, our results show that future land use and climate change will both have substantial impacts on ecosystem functioning. However, future changes can often not be fully explained by these two drivers and legacy effects have to be considered.

land use change↗
NASA NTRS2022

A Multimodel Investigation of Asian Summer Monsoon UTLS Transport Over the Western Pacific

The Asian summer monsoon (ASM) as a chemical transport system is investigated using a suite of models in preparation for an airborne field campaign over the Western Pacific. Results show that the dynamical process of anticyclone eddy shedding in the upper troposphere rapidly transports convectively uplifted Asian boundary layer air masses to the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere over the Western Pacific. The models show that the transported air masses contain significantly enhanced aerosol loading and a complex chemical mixture of trace gases that are relevant to ozone chemistry. The chemical forecast models consistently predict the occurrence of the shedding events, but the predicted concentrations of transported trace gases and aerosols often differ between models. The airborne measurements to be obtained in the field campaign are expected to help reduce the model uncertainties. Furthermore, the large-scale seasonal chemical structure of the monsoon system is obtained from modeled carbon monoxide, a tracer of the convective transport of pollutants, which provides a new perspective of the ASM circulation, complementing the dynamical characterization of the monsoon.

Laura L. Pan↗