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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2019

Citywide Impacts of E-Commerce: Does Parcel Delivery Travel Outweigh Household Shopping Travel Reductions?

E-commerce has facilitated online ordering of goods by households in recent years. This technological advancement has disrupted shopping related transportation. While the National Household Travel Survey (NHTS [1]) finds that household shopping frequency has declined in the last 10-20 years, deliveries by parcel delivery trucks and vans [2] have increased. However, the net effect of these phenomena on overall trip making, vehicle-miles traveled (VMT) and fuel consumption has not been quantified. From a regional planning perspective, understanding the net effect is important for informing city policies--for example, in regards to land use and transportation planning. The objective of this research is to address this gap. In this study, the net regional impact of e-commerce on transportation and fuel consumption is evaluated. The approach relies on a powerful, agent-based modeling framework (POLARIS [3]) that models decisions made by individual household and commercial agents. E-commerce demand is modeled for each household using a bilevel multinomial probit structure that evaluates e-commerce participation and ordering frequency. Last-mile delivery tours were constructed using GIS-based tools and information from a major parcel delivery company [4]. After integrating the resulting supply and demand models with all other passenger and commercial traffic within POLARIS, a traffic simulation was performed and subsequently VMT and energy consumption were analyzed. The study finds that while e-commerce has generated an increase in parcel truck delivery trips, the net effect of e-commerce is a reduction in VMT and fuel consumption due major reductions in these quantities via shopping trip reductions.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Characterizing the Spread of COVID-19 from Human Mobility Patterns and SocioDemographic Indicators

Mobility is an indicator of human movement through space and time. With the increasing availability of geolocated data (from GPS, accelerometers, etc.), it is now possible to examine individual as well as group human mobility patterns. Human mobility is influenced by both intrinsic (i.e. personal motivations) and extrinsic (i.e., events like natural hazards or a pandemic like the COVID-19) factors. However, the intricate relationships between human mobility patterns and sociodemographic characteristics in the context of a pandemic are yet to be fully explored. Our goal is to overcome this gap by using human mobility data at the census block group level from mobile phones and combining those with social vulnerability indicators to examine the overall spread of COVID-19 at local spatial scales. We used 585,878 weekly visits to 37,871 points of interests (POIs) from Safegraph to quantify mobility indices and social distancing metrics in 2,820 census block groups in the city of Los Angeles (LA) - before and during lockdown as well as during the phase1 and phase 2 reopening. Finally, using supervised machine learning algorithms, we classified the census block groups in LA into High, Medium and Low categories that represented the vulnerability of these block groups based on the cumulative number of occurrences of COVID-19 cases till July 24, 2020. Our results indicate that the tree-based classifiers performed well in comparison to the Support Vector Machines and Multinomial Logit models. Gradient Boosting had the highest classification accuracy of 97.4% COVID-19 with an AUC score of 0.987. The block groups with high COVID-19 cases also had a high concentration of socially vulnerable populations, high human mobility index and a low social distancing index.

Roy, Avipsa↗
DOE OSTI2025

Misclassification in Workers’ Telecommuting Frequency Choices Using a Generalized Extreme Value Model

Telecommuting frequency is a response variable collected in travel surveys and is, therefore, prone to errors leading to mismeasurements or misclassification. Misclassification of explanatory variables is a common risk when using statistical modeling techniques. We define “misclassification” as a response reported or recorded in the wrong category; for example, a variable is recorded as a 1 when it should be 0. Here, in this context, this study aims to develop a statistical model to analyze telecommuting data which accounts for potential misclassification errors by building on existing literature in econometrics. The empirical analysis was undertaken using the 2017 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) and the general extreme value (GEV) models available in the literature. Specifically, the frequency of telecommuting days was analyzed using the negative binomial (NB) model recast as the multinomial logit (MNL) model. By nature—and consistent with other studies—NHTS data are prone to errors that can be classified as intentional or unintentional misinformation provided by the person being interviewed. Ignoring these errors while modeling telecommuting frequencies using standard discrete count models can result in biased parameter estimates. The misclassification parameter was calculated for both over-reporting and under-reporting scenarios. The misclassification errors can be as high as 14% over-reported and 10% under-reported, particularly for the neighboring values. Statistical fit comparison between the models shows that models that ignore misclassification have worse data fit and biased parameter estimates with significant policy implications.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2019

Intrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma: Socioeconomic Discrepancies, Contemporary Treatment Approaches and Survival Trends from the National Cancer Database

Objective: The aim of this study was to evaluate socioeconomic discrepancies in current treatment approaches and survival trends among patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC). Methods: The 2004–2015 National Cancer Database was retrospectively analyzed for histopathologically proven ICC. Treatment predictors were evaluated using multinomial logistic regression and overall survival via multivariable Cox models. Results: Overall, 12,837 ICC patients were included. Multiple factors influenced treatment allocation, including age, education, comorbidities, cancer stage, grade, treatment center, and US state region (multivariable p < 0.05). The highest surgery rates were observed in the Middle Atlantic (28.7%) and lowest rates were observed in the Mountain States (18.4%). Decreased ICC treatment likelihood was observed for male African Americans with Medicaid insurance and those with low income (multivariable p < 0.05). Socioeconomic treatment discrepancies translated into decreased overall survival for patients of male sex (vs. female; hazard ratio [HR] 1.21, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.16–1.26, p < 0.001), with low income (< $37,999 vs. ≥ $63,000 annually; HR 1.07, 95% CI 1.01–1.14, p = 0.032), and with Medicaid insurance (vs. private insurance; HR 1.13, 95% CI 1.04–1.23, p = 0.006). Both surgical and non-surgical ICC management showed increased survival compared with no treatment, with the longest survival for surgery (5-year overall survival for surgery, 33.5%; interventional oncology, 11.8%; radiation oncology/chemotherapy, 4.4%; no treatment, 3.3%). Among non-surgically treated patients, interventional oncology yielded the longest survival versus radiation oncology/chemotherapy (HR 0.73, 95% CI 0.65–0.82, p < 0.001). Conclusions: ICC treatment allocation and outcome demonstrated a marked variation depending on socioeconomic status, demography, cancer factors, and US geography. Healthcare providers should address these discrepancies by providing surgery and interventional oncology as first-line treatment to all eligible patients, with special attention to the vulnerable populations identified in this study.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2014

Simulating Metabolism with Statistical Thermodynamics

Kinetic probabilities of state are usually based on empirical measurements, while thermodynamic state probabilities are based on the assumption that chemical species are distributed to according to a multinomial Boltzmann distribution. While the use of kinetic simulations is desirable, obtaining all the mass action rate constants necessary to carry out kinetic simulations is an overwhelming challenge. Here, the kinetic probability of a state is compared in depth to the thermodynamic probability of a state for sets of coupled reactions. The entropic and energetic contributions to thermodynamic stable states are described and compared to entropic and energetic contributions of kinetic steady states. It is shown that many kinetic steady states are possible for a system of coupled reactions depending on the relative values of the mass action rate constants, but only one of these corresponds to a thermodynamically stable state. Furthermore, the thermodynamic stable state corresponds to a minimum free energy state. The use of thermodynamic simulations of state to model metabolic processes is attractive, since metabolite levels and energy requirements of pathways can be evaluated using only standard free energies of formation as parameters in the probability distribution. In chemical physics, the assumption of a Boltzmann distribution is the basis of transition state theory for modeling transitory species. Application to stable species, such as those found in metabolic processes, is a less severe assumption that would enable the use of simulations of state.

Cannon, William R.↗
DOE OSTI2014

A National Survey of Skin Infections, Care Behaviors and MRSA Knowledge in the United States

A nationally representative sample of approximately 2000 individuals was surveyed to assess SSTI infections over their lifetime and then prospectively over six-months. Knowledge of MRSA, future likelihood to self-treat a SSTI and self-care behaviors was also queried. Chi square tests, linear and multinomial regression were used for analysis. About 50% of those with a reported history of a SSTI typical of MRSA had sought medical treatment. MRSA knowledge was low: 28% of respondents could describe MRSA. Use of protective self-care behaviors that may reduce transmission, such as covering a lesion, differed with knowledge of MRSA and socio-demographics. Those reporting a history of a MRSA-like SSTI were more likely to respond that they would self-treat than those without such a history (OR 2.05 95% CI 1.40, 3.01; p<0.001). Since half of respondents reported not seeking care for past lesions, incidence determined from clinical encounters would greatly underestimate true incidence. MRSA knowledge was not associated with seeking medical care, but was associated with selfcare practices that may decrease transmission.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

A Geographic Mosaic of Climate Change Impacts on Terrestrial Vegetation: Which Areas Are Most at Risk?

Changes in climate projected for the 21st century are expected to trigger widespread and pervasive biotic impacts. Forecasting these changes and their implications for ecosystem services is a major research goal. Much of the research on biotic responses to climate change has focused on either projected shifts in individual species distributions or broad-scale changes in biome distributions. Here, we introduce a novel application of multinomial logistic regression as a powerful approach to model vegetation distributions and potential responses to 21st century climate change. We modeled the distribution of 22 major vegetation types, most defined by a single dominant woody species, across the San Francisco Bay Area. Predictor variables included climate and topographic variables. The novel aspect of our model is the output: a vector of relative probabilities for each vegetation type in each location within the study domain. The model was then projected for 54 future climate scenarios, spanning a representative range of temperature and precipitation projections from the CMIP3 and CMIP5 ensembles. We found that sensitivity of vegetation to climate change is highly heterogeneous across the region. Surprisingly, sensitivity to climate change is higher closer to the coast, on lower insolation, north-facing slopes and in areas of higher precipitation. While such sites may provide refugia for mesic and cool-adapted vegetation in the face of a warming climate, the model suggests they will still be highly dynamic and relatively sensitive to climate-driven vegetation transitions. The greater sensitivity of moist and low insolation sites is an unexpected outcome that challenges views on the location and stability of climate refugia. Projections provide a foundation for conservation planning and land management, and highlight the need for a greater understanding of the mechanisms and time scales of potential climate-driven vegetation transitions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Final LDRD Report: Using Linkography of Cyber Attack Patterns to Inform Honeytoken Placement

The war to establish cyber supremacy continues, and the literature is crowded with strictly technical cyber security measures. We present the results of a three year LDRD project using Linkography, a methodology new to the field of cyber security, we establish the foundation necessary to track and profile the microbehavior of humans attacking cyber systems. We also propose ways to leverage this understanding to influence and deceive these attackers. We studied the science of linkography, applied it to the cyber security domain, implemented a software package to manage linkographs, generated the preprocessing blocks necessary to ingest raw data, produced machine learning models, created ontology refinement algorithms and prototyped a web application for researchers and practitioners to apply linkography. Machine learning produced some of our key results: We trained and validated multinomial classifiers with a real world data set and predicted the attacker's next category of action with 86 to 98% accuracy; dimension reduction techniques indicated that the linkography-based features were among the most powerful. We also discovered ontology refinement algorithms that advanced the state of the art in linkography in general and cyber security in particular. We conclude that linkography is a viable tool for cyber security; we look forward to expanding our work to other data sources and using our prediction results to enable adversary deception techniques.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Automated System-wide Event Detection and Classification Using Machine Learning on Synchrophasor Data

As the number of phasor measurement units (PMUs) deployed in a power system increases, and their data volume streamed to the control canter intensifies, operators are facing challenges related to the analysis of such data, which need to be observed and responded to as the measurements are displayed in the Control Room. Humans are generally unable to process such large amount of data efficiently and rapidly. There is an apparent need for automated ways to analyze the data, extract actionable information about occurrence of specific events, and characterize the events quickly and cost effectively. This paper discusses the use of machine learning (ML) to facilitate such tasks by providing automated, highly computationally efficient, and cost-effective ways of extracting actionable information from synchrophasor big data in real-time. We developed Big Data Smart (BDSmart) ML-based prototype tool for the Control Room use that automatically analyses data properties from synchrophasor system measurements taken across the three grid Interconnections in the USA (Western, Eastern and ERCOT). The data collected from several hundreds of PMUs located across the Interconnections over a period of two years have been made available for our extensive study. As a result, we were able to identify a number of big data properties that influence how ML methodology is applied to select, develop, train and test the data models that can eventually be used for the tool implementation. The resulting set of candidate algorithms spans unsupervised, supervised, semi-supervised and transfer-learning approaches. Many ML techniques, such as decision trees, multinomial logistic regression, feed-forward neural networks, K-nearest neighbor, multiclass support vector machine, and single and multi-channel convolutional neural networks, are implemented, and their performance is examined. We offer the results from testing the data models. The novelty of our study is in the approaches for bad data detection and mitigation, selection of a simplified feature for event detection, and data label improvements. As a result, we came up with a list of recommendations for the utilities on how to improve the PMU recording practices to cater to the future ML applications aimed at automating the analysis of synchrophasor data.

Synchrophasors, Machine Learning, System-wide Even↗
DOE OSTI2021

Applying novel analytical tools for analyzing multidimensional secondary organic aerosol measurements

In the atmosphere, secondary organic aerosols (SOA) are often the major components of fine particulate matter and interact with clouds and radiation. SOA comprises a mixture of thousands of organic compounds. There is tremendous complexity and uncertainty in understanding SOA formation, since it is formed by oxidation and gas to particle conversion of a variety of sources: natural biogenic, anthropogenic (vehicles, cooking coal combustion) and biomass burning. The Aerosol Mass Spectrometer (AMS) produces multidimensional chemical information about SOA but analyzing this data to understand SOA sources relies on time consuming analyses (~months to years) such as the positive matrix factorization (PMF). PMF also becomes difficult for aircraft data where signal to noise ratio is weaker. There is a critical need to develop fast machine learning techniques that can analytically provide information about SOA sources using AMS data on the same timescales as the data is being collected (~minutes). We apply a machine learning supervised classification approach: the multinomial logistic regression to rapidly classify AMS data obtained from aircraft measurements.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Grid Event Signature Library Analytics Report: Signature Matching Tool Development Efforts

This report describes the purpose and features of the Signature Matching Tool (SMT), employed in the Department of Energy (DOE) Grid Event Signature Library (GESL). The SMT supports a user of GESL to identify snippets of electric signatures, usually from sensor devices measuring electric characteristics such as phase voltages and currents, frequency, etc., suspected to represent certain events in the power grid but are not known to the user. The SMT uses a classification method to identify an event of the unknown signature, using the repository of known and labeled signatures in the GESL. The classifier applies a local binary classifier per node (LCN) approach to the unique event tag taxonomy used in the GESL, where training phases are separated based on the Primary labels in the taxonomy, sensor type, and voltage level. Results show that this method helps with computing time during training, in comparison to a flat, multinomial classifier, and produces acceptable average accuracy of 83% across all Primary labels. The report concludes with planned future work including integration to the web interface and API.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Statistical and Machine Learning Approaches to Analyzing Pipeline Incidents in the United States (2010–2024)

This study applies machine learning methods to analyze natural gas pipeline incidents in the United States using the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA) Gas Distribution Incident Dataset (2010–2024). The dataset includes over 600 variables describing incident characteristics, infrastructure attributes, and contributing factors associated with unintentional gas releases. The objective is to assess whether these features can reliably predict the underlying cause of pipeline failures. Multinomial logistic regression and Random Forest models were developed to classify incident causes, including excavation damage, corrosion, equipment failure, and natural forces. Results show that excavation damage is both the most frequent and most predictable cause, with models achieving strong performance for this category. However, when excavation damage is excluded, model accuracy declines significantly, with some models performing near random levels. Across all approaches, severe class imbalance and limited variability in key predictors constrain predictive performance. Pipeline age and diameter emerge as the most influential variables, but they provide insufficient discriminatory power to distinguish among less frequent failure types. These findings indicate that non-excavation-related incidents are rare, heterogeneous, and weakly represented in the dataset, limiting the effectiveness of machine learning classification. Overall, this study highlights the structural limitations of the PHMSA dataset for predictive modeling and underscores the need for improved data balance and feature enrichment. The results reinforce excavation damage prevention as the most impactful strategy for reducing pipeline incidents.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2025

The relationship between below average cognitive ability at age 5 years and the child’s experience of school at age 9

Background At age 5, while only embarking on their educational journey, substantial differences in children’s cognitive ability will already exist. The aim of this study was to examine the causal association between below average cognitive ability at age 5 years and child-reported experience of school and self-concept, and teacher-reported class engagement and emotional-behavioural function at age 9 years. Methods This longitudinal cohort study used data from 7,392 children in the Growing Up in Ireland Infant Cohort, who had completed the Picture Similarities and Naming Vocabulary subtests of the British Abilities Scales at age 5. Principal components analysis was used to produce a composite general cognitive ability score for each child. Children with a general cognitive ability score more than 1 standard deviation (SD) below the mean at age 5 were categorised as ‘Below Average Cognitive Ability’ (BACA), and those scoring above this as ‘Typical Cognitive Development’ (TCD). The outcomes of interest, measured at age 9, were child-reported experience of school, child’s self-concept, teacher-reported class engagement, and teacher-reported emotional behavioural function. Binary and multinomial logistic regression models were used to examine the association between BACA and these outcomes. Results Compared to those with TCD, those with BACA had significantly higher odds of never liking school [Adjusted odds ratio (AOR) 1.82, 95% CI 1.37–2.43, p < 0.001], of being picked on (AOR 1.27, 95% CI 1.09–1.48) and of picking on others (AOR 1.53, 95% CI 1.27–1.84). They had significantly higher odds of experiencing low self-concept (AOR 1.20, 95% CI 1.02–1.42) and emotional-behavioural difficulties (AOR 1.34, 95% CI 1.10–1.63, p = 0.003). Compared to those with TCD, children with BACA had significantly higher odds of hardly ever or never being interested, motivated and excited to learn (AOR 2.29, 95% CI 1.70–3.10). Conclusion Children with BACA at school-entry had significantly higher odds of reporting a negative school experience and low self-concept at age 9. They had significantly higher odds of having teacher-reported poor class engagement and problematic emotional-behavioural function at age 9. The findings of this study suggest BACA has a causal role in these adverse outcomes. Early childhood policy and intervention design should be cognisant of the important role of cognitive ability in school and childhood outcomes.

Bowe, Andrea K.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Relationships between Vehicle Pricing and Features: Data Driven Analysis of the Chinese Vehicle Market

A full-scale understanding of the dynamics of the Chinese vehicle market can benefit stakeholders with respect to rational decision-making and effective long-term investment. This study attempts to discover the common vehicle pricing patterns in the Chinese market by quantifying statistical correlations among critical vehicle features from intrinsic powertrain systems to extrinsic market positioning. The data samples involve almost all passenger vehicle models sold in 2013 to 2019. After comparing multiple statistical methodologies, a log-transformation variant of the multinomial linear regression model was found to be the best one, and the goodness of fit shows that this model can offer stable estimates, which were validated using 2019 market data. The insights achieved are: (1) The price and major performance features of SUVs/crossovers are similar to those of sedans; (2) If all other explicit features remain the same, the price of a Japanese midsize sedan is 62% higher than that of a Chinese midsize sedan, and European midsize vehicles have the highest prices overall. (3) The incremental price of fuel consumption varies by vehicle class and fuel economy. For example, from 30 to 50 MPG, the vehicle price increases by $119 for a Chinese brand sedan vehicle, by $69 for a Chinese brand SUV.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2015

ADOPT: A Historically Validated Light Duty Vehicle Consumer Choice Model

The Automotive Deployment Option Projection Tool (ADOPT) is a light-duty vehicle consumer choice and stock model supported by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Vehicle Technologies Office. It estimates technology improvement impacts on U.S. light-duty vehicles sales, petroleum use, and greenhouse gas emissions. ADOPT uses techniques from the multinomial logit method and the mixed logit method estimate sales. Specifically, it estimates sales based on the weighted value of key attributes including vehicle price, fuel cost, acceleration, range and usable volume. The average importance of several attributes changes nonlinearly across its range and changes with income. For several attributes, a distribution of importance around the average value is used to represent consumer heterogeneity. The majority of existing vehicle makes, models, and trims are included to fully represent the market. The Corporate Average Fuel Economy regulations are enforced. The sales feed into the ADOPT stock model. It captures key aspects for summing petroleum use and greenhouse gas emissions This includes capturing the change in vehicle miles traveled by vehicle age, the creation of new model options based on the success of existing vehicles, new vehicle option introduction rate limits, and survival rates by vehicle age. ADOPT has been extensively validated with historical sales data. It matches in key dimensions including sales by fuel economy, acceleration, price, vehicle size class, and powertrain across multiple years. A graphical user interface provides easy and efficient use. It manages the inputs, simulation, and results.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2012

Analyzing Data for Systems Biology: Working at the Intersection of Thermodynamics and Data Analytics

Many challenges in systems biology have to do with analyzing data within the framework of molecular phenomena and cellular pathways. How does this relate to thermodynamics that we know govern the behavior of molecules? Making progress in relating data analysis to thermodynamics is essential in systems biology if we are to build predictive models that enable the field of synthetic biology. This report discusses work at the crossroads of thermodynamics and data analysis, and demonstrates that statistical mechanical free energy is a multinomial log likelihood. Applications to systems biology are presented.

Environmental Molecular Sciences Laboratory↗
DOE OSTI2017

On the Bayesian calibration of computer model mixtures through experimental data, and the design of predictive models

For many real systems, several computer models may exist with different physics and predictive abilities. To achieve more accurate simulations/predictions, it is desirable for these models to be properly combined and calibrated. Here, we propose the Bayesian calibration of computer model mixture method which relies on the idea of representing the real system output as a mixture of the available computer model outputs with unknown input dependent weight functions. The method builds a fully Bayesian predictive model as an emulator for the real system output by combining, weighting, and calibrating the available models in the Bayesian framework. Moreover, it fits a mixture of calibrated computer models that can be used by the domain scientist as a mean to combine the available computer models, in a flexible and principled manner, and perform reliable simulations. It can address realistic cases where one model may be more accurate than the others at different input values because the mixture weights, indicating the contribution of each model, are functions of the input. Inference on the calibration parameters can consider multiple computer models associated with different physics. The method does not require knowledge of the fidelity order of the models. We provide a technique able to mitigate the computational overhead due to the consideration of multiple computer models that is suitable to the mixture model framework. We implement the proposed method in a real-world application involving the Weather Research and Forecasting large-scale climate model.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2013

Bioenergy market competition for biomass: A system dynamics review of current policies

There is growing interest in the United States and abroad to increase the use of biomass as an energy source due to environmental and energy security benefits. In the United States, the biofuel and biopower industries are regulated by different policies and different agencies and have different drivers, which impact the maximum price the industries are willing to pay for biomass. This article describes a dynamic computer simulation model that analyzes future behavior of bioenergy feedstock markets based on varying policy and technical options. The model simulates the long-term dynamics of these markets by treating advanced biomass feedstocks as a commodity and projecting the total demand of each industry, as well as the market price over time. The model is used for an analysis of the United States bioenergy feedstock market that projects supply, demand, and market price given three independent buyers: domestic biopower, domestic biofuels, and foreign exports. With base-case assumptions, the biofuels industry is able to dominate the market and meet the federal Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) targets for advanced biofuels. Further analyses suggest that United States bioenergy studies should include estimates of export demand for biomass in their projections, and that GHG-limiting policy would partially shield both industries from export dominance.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗