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DOE OSTI2024

Atomically precise engineering of spin–orbit polarons in a kagome magnetic Weyl semimetal

Atomically precise defect engineering is essential to manipulate the properties of emerging topological quantum materials for practical quantum applications. However, this remains challenging due to the obstacles in modifying the typically complex crystal lattice with atomic precision. Here, we report the atomically precise engineering of the vacancy-localized spin–orbit polarons in a kagome magnetic Weyl semimetal Co 3 Sn 2 S 2 , using scanning tunneling microscope. We achieve the step-by-step repair of the selected vacancies, leading to the formation of artificial sulfur vacancies with elaborate geometry. We find that that the bound states localized around these vacancies undergo a symmetry dependent energy shift towards Fermi level with increasing vacancy size. As the vacancy size increases, the localized magnetic moments of spin–orbit polarons become tunable and eventually become itinerantly negative due to spin–orbit coupling in the kagome flat band. These findings provide a platform for engineering atomic quantum states in topological quantum materials at the atomic scale.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2025

Feasibility of Algal Biochar, a Byproduct of Biofuel Production, as a Supplemental Cementitious Material

Algal biochar, as the solid residue of biofuel production from algal biomass, is reported to explore disposition options, aiming to lessen the liability or obstacles to biofuel production processes. However, landfills and open combustion lead to adverse environmental impacts. One way to add value to such wastes is to use them as admixtures in cementitious construction materials. This study aims to investigate the feasibility of algae-derived biochar as supplementary cementitious materials (SCM) at different water contents and mixture ratios. Algal biochar-cement composites were prepared with different algal biochar content as well as different water-to-cement (w/c) ratios, and the surface area, morphology, elemental, and mineralogical composition were characterized. To compensate for the high-water absorption of algal biochar, a small concentration of a superplasticizer was used since higher w/c ratios negatively impact strength. The mechanical performance of algal biochar-cement composites is compared with control composites using commercial silica fume as a typical commercial SCM. The findings suggest that algal biochar is a promising candidate to replace commercial SCM, like silica fume, since algal biochar-cement composites can reach comparable compressive strength and Young’s modulus to commercial pozzolan-cement materials with the same w/c ratio, though at later curing times, 33 days. Although the tensile strength of algal biochar-cement composites is statistically similar at 7 days, it is significantly lower at later curing times, and further investigation is required to improve this property. Algal biochar-based cement binders showed comparable embodied carbon to silica fume-based cement binders based on a cradle-to-gate lifecycle analysis. However, the ability of algal biochar to absorb large volumes of CO 2 over short periods of time, as measured in this study, makes this novel SCM an excellent alternative to reduce the embodied carbon of concrete structures cradle-to-grave at 1/10 of the cost. In conclusion, valorization of algae-derived solid waste provides great potential to reduce embodied carbon and brings credit to biofuel production and concrete-based construction.

algae-derived↗

DOE OSTI2026

Electrostatic Superlattices Beyond 1:1 Stoichiometry

ABSTRACT Exotic nanoparticle superstructures can be accessed by harnessing nanoparticle softness and charge regulation, features often viewed as obstacles to structural control. Here, we show that regulated charge mismatch in polymer‐grafted nanoparticles enables the assembly of high‐stoichiometry cubic superlattices. By co‐tuning grafting density, particle size, and bulk composition, we realize ionic‐lattice analogues, such as and , as well as single‐component and superlattices without atomic counterparts. The superlattice has recently been identified theoretically as a photonic band‐gap lattice. These phases emerge from a 1:1 “parent” lattice when local charge neutrality cannot be satisfied, driving either progressive interstitial filling or reorganization into a larger basis. For instance, the systematic occupation of ZnS tetrahedral sites yields , while ligand‐swapping symmetry breaking converts CsCl into . Upon heating, the assemblies exhibit reversible lattice contraction and pronounced negative thermal expansion. Furthermore, the energetic penalty for defects increases with nanoparticle size, facilitating the scalable production of high‐quality, open superlattices for photonic applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Enzyme interactions on lignocellulosic biomass structure

This chapter shows that, although well studied over the years, the cellulose enzymatic hydrolysis process has still many obstacles to be overcome or minimized. High enzyme loading and relatively long incubation periods are generally required for effective cellulose saccharification to be achieved. These limitations make the process unattractive from an economic perspective. Most studies show that the conversion rate of cellulose hydrolysis decreases over reaction time due to several factors that may inhibit, deactivate, or slow the work of enzymes. Some of these factors are inhibition by the product generated; inhibition/deactivation of enzymes by by-products generated during pretreatment (PT); limitation of mass transfer; shear stress by high stirring; air–liquid interfacial area; and unproductive adsorption on lignin or other compounds present in the biomass. The interaction between cellulases and the lignin present in these biomasses has a major negative impact on the process, with the source of the raw material and the type of PT used having a strong influence on it. Finally, the use of nonenzymatic proteins seems to be the best way to mitigate this problem.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Is selfing a reproductive assurance promoting polyploid establishment? Reduced fitness, leaky self‐incompatibility and lower inbreeding depression in neotetraploids

Premise Newly formed polyploids face significant obstacles to persistence and population establishment because of fitness costs of intercytotype mating. Selfing provides the opportunity to escape mate limitation, enabling production of new individuals and increasing the likelihood of fixation of new polyploid lineages. Still, association between self‐compatibility and polyploidy is not always clear. We compared self‐incompatibility and inbreeding depression in neotetraploids and their diploid progenitor to explore the direct effects of whole genome duplications on self‐incompatibility and the implications of ploidy‐driven changes for polyploid establishment. Methods Outcross and self‐pollinations were performed in diploids and synthetic neotetraploids of Jasione maritima var. maritima , and reproductive success was measured through fruit and seed production and seed germination. Self‐ and outcross offspring were grown under controlled conditions, and plant performance was measured through several fitness parameters. Results Neotetraploids showed an overall lower performance than diploids. Reproductive success was negatively affected by selfing in both cytotypes. However, greater variation in the expression of self‐incompatibility was observed in neotetraploids; additionally, developmental and physiological parameters were not affected by selfing on neotetraploids, with an overall similar fitness of outcrossed and selfed individuals, resulting in lower inbreeding depression indexes. Conclusions Neotetraploids might have benefited from selfing at initial stages after their formation. Genome duplications resulted in leaky self‐incompatibility, enabling the production of offspring under minority cytotype disadvantage with similar fitness as outcrossed offspring. Our results support theoretical assumptions that selfing might be important for neopolyploid establishment, although changes in self‐incompatibility might not be abrupt.

Siopa, Catarina↗

NASA NTRS1994

An evaluation of criteria that may be used to identify species surviving a mass extinction

One of the most difficult obstacles to establishing a causal connection between mass extinctions and large body impacts is the existence of what appear to be many more KT survivor species than previously suspected. Though interpretations of 'Cretaceous' faunal elements in lowermost Danian sediments differ, this enigmatic fauna has not been recovered from every biozone-complete boundary section, including the El Kef stratotype. In terms of their potential for providing constraints on scenarios seeking to account for the KT extinction event, the significance of such observations cannot be overstated. Owing to the consistency with which these observations have been made over the last several years, the possibility of widespread trans-KT biotic survivorship can no longer be dismissed. Rather, the survivorship hypothesis must be tested alongside its alternative (the reworking hypothesis) to determine which explains the available data in the most complete yet parsimonious manner. Moreover, valid tests for survivorship cannot be based on negative evidence or on the assumption that only a small cohort of species could have survived the KT boundary event. Several authors have recently proposed various criteria that might be used to test alternative interpretations for this aspect lowermost Danian biotic record.

Macleod, N.↗

NASA NTRS2021

Spatio-Temporal Patterns of Optimal Landsat Data for Burn Severity Index Calculations: Implications for High Northern Latitudes Wildfire Research

Satellite remote sensing has been widely used for the evaluation of wildfire burn severity in various ecosystems. While a variety of remote sensing-based burn severity indices have been developed, the Landsat-based differ-enced Normalized Burn Ratio (dNBR) presents the most widely-used approach to burn severity assessment for fire research and management. Although dNBR-based approaches have been continuously updated, including the development of the relative dNBR (RdNBR) and the Relativized Burn Ratio (RBR), one key obstacle for the reliable applications of the burn severity indices in the high northern latitudes has not been adequately addressed. Specifically, optimal Landsat image pairs are very rarely available for the calculation of the burn severity indices in certain regions of the high northern latitudes (HNL), resulting in the burn severity index outputs calculated for a large number of wildfires being considerably affected by non-fire-related factors. The suboptimal selection of image pairs may have partially contributed to the lack of consistency in the performance of the burn severity indices in the HNL regions. In this paper, we systematically evaluated the impacts of sub-optimal image pairs on signal stability through two sets of analyses conducted at different spatial scales. First, at the regional scale, we examined the burn severity indices calculated for a selection of wildfires in Alaska. Here, we demonstrate the inconsistent performance of the same index calculated based on Landsat data that are typically considered as “optimal”. In addition, we show that the calculated indices may be more prone to the negative impacts of these inconsistencies, thus leading to reduced reliability, when there is limited Landsat data availability. Second, at the continental scale, we show that certain areas in the HNL, especially Alaska during the pre-2000 era, are subject to the potentially strong negative impact associated with the limited data availability. Through systematically analyzing this issue, we hope to not only divert more attention to it but also to provide potential solutions, based on which further improvements that may be of particular importance for research on Arctic wildfires could be made.

Dong Chen↗

DOE OSTI2023

Unraveling the core of fuel cell performance: engineering the ionomer/catalyst interface

The biggest obstacle to the widespread implementation of polymer electrolyte membrane fuel cells (PEMFCs) is their cost, primarily due to the use of platinum catalysts. The high intrinsic catalyst activity exhibited on a rotating disk electrode (RDE) is rarely realized in a membrane electrode assembly (MEA), which is a long-standing challenge for PEMFCs and a cause of low catalyst utilization. To translate the high RDE performance of a catalyst into a MEA, the design of an ideal ionomer/catalyst interface is proposed: a thin, conformal ionomer film covers the maximum surface of a Pt nanoparticle and thus simultaneously maximizes catalyst utilization, (i.e., high mass activity and electrochemically active surface area) and O 2 diffusion rate (i.e., high current density performance) without compromising proton conduction. Building such an interface is a long-standing challenge due to the lack of interaction between the ionomer and catalyst particles, resulting in large ionomer agglomerates and inhomogeneous ionomer coverage over the catalyst nanoparticle, with consequent poor fuel cell performance. In this work, this ionomer/catalyst interface has been engineered, utilizing the electrostatic attraction between positively charged catalyst and negatively charged ionomer particles in a catalyst ink and preserved in a solid catalyst layer. As a result, this interface leads to previously unachieved proton exchange membrane fuel cell performance in terms of both catalyst utilization (75% vs. 45%) and peak/rated power density (i.e., 1.430/0.930 W cm -2 , H 2 /air, cathode Pt loading: 0.1 mgPt cm -2 ) for pure Pt catalysts, even better than those of Pt alloy catalysts. This work demonstrates the formation of an interface in the liquid phase (using ultra-small-angle X-ray scattering in combination with cryo-TEM, isothermal–titration–calorimetry) and the preservation of the interface in the solid catalyst layer (using TEM) and estimates the effective coverage and thickness of the ionomer film (using limiting current density, RDE and fuel cell performance).

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

NASA NTRS1993

Nonlinear rescaling of control values simplifies fuzzy control

Traditional control theory is well-developed mainly for linear control situations. In non-linear cases there is no general method of generating a good control, so we have to rely on the ability of the experts (operators) to control them. If we want to automate their control, we must acquire their knowledge and translate it into a precise control strategy. The experts' knowledge is usually represented in non-numeric terms, namely, in terms of uncertain statements of the type 'if the obstacle is straight ahead, the distance to it is small, and the velocity of the car is medium, press the brakes hard'. Fuzzy control is a methodology that translates such statements into precise formulas for control. The necessary first step of this strategy consists of assigning membership functions to all the terms that the expert uses in his rules (in our sample phrase these words are 'small', 'medium', and 'hard'). The appropriate choice of a membership function can drastically improve the quality of a fuzzy control. In the simplest cases, we can take the functions whose domains have equally spaced endpoints. Because of that, many software packages for fuzzy control are based on this choice of membership functions. This choice is not very efficient in more complicated cases. Therefore, methods have been developed that use neural networks or generic algorithms to 'tune' membership functions. But this tuning takes lots of time (for example, several thousands iterations are typical for neural networks). In some cases there are evident physical reasons why equally space domains do not work: e.g., if the control variable u is always positive (i.e., if we control temperature in a reactor), then negative values (that are generated by equal spacing) simply make no sense. In this case it sounds reasonable to choose another scale u' = f(u) to represent u, so that equal spacing will work fine for u'. In the present paper we formulate the problem of finding the best rescaling function, solve this problem, and show (on a real-life example) that after an optimal rescaling, the un-tuned fuzzy control can be as good as the best state-of-art traditional non-linear controls.

Vanlangingham, H.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Hybrid Electric Drivetrain Testing and Design (CRADA CRD-17-00699 Final Report)

Hybrid electric drivetrains have recently become of a great interest in the medium and heavy-duty vehicle market as it enables substantial reduction of petroleum use, vehicle level fuel use and criteria pollutant emissions. These vehicle performance improvements are not only economically beneficial for business operations relying on large fleets of vehicles, they are also paramount for curbing energy use and the negative effects of vehicle operations on the environment. Efficient Drivetrains, Inc. (EDI), acquired in July 2018 by Cummins, Inc., is a small company focused on development of medium and heavy-duty hybrid electric drivetrains. EDI has already developed the general hardware architecture of their drivetrain system, but there is still a significant effort to be done on optimizing the system in terms of control strategies and component sizing in order to maximize the benefits of the hybrid drivetrain. Historically, hybrid electric systems have proven to deliver better fuel economy in certain applications than their conventional counterparts. Particular areas of advantageous applications are vocations with kinetically intensive transient duty cycles and operations requiring some sort of power take off whose power demand is not well matched to the size of the vehicle’s main engine, thus forcing it to operate in extremely inefficient operating modes. Hybrid drivetrains can be at a disadvantage when pressed into duty cycle operation consisting of extensive steady state highway cruise due to various design compromises optimized for more transient operation. This can also lead to increase in vehicle emissions if the system is not optimized properly. Ample opportunity for extensive optimization is needed to overcome these obstacles.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Hybrid Electric Drivetrain Testing and Design (CRADA CRD-17-00699 Final Report)

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

NASA NTRS1998

Incompressible Turbulent Wing-Body Junction Flow

The overall objective of this study is to contribute to the optimized design of fan bypass systems in advanced turbofan engines. Increasing the engine bypass ratios have provided a major boost in engine performance improvement over the last fifty years. An engine with high bypass ratio (11-16:1) such as the Advanced Ducted Propulsion (ADP) is being developed and is expected to provide an additional 25% improvement in overall efficiency over the early turbofans. Such significant improvements in overall efficiency would reduce the cost per seat mile, which is a major government and Industry challenge for the 21th century. The research is part of the Advanced Subsonic Technology (AST) program that involves a NASA, U.S. Industry and FAA partnership with the goal of a safe and highly productive global air transportation system. The immediate objective of the study is to perform numerical simulation of duct-strut interactions to elucidate the loss mechanisms associated with this configuration that is typical of advanced turbofan engines such as ADP. However, at present experimental data for a duct-strut configuration are not available. Thus, as a first step a wing-body junction flow would be studied and is the specific objective of the present study. At the outset it is to be recognized that while duct-strut interaction flow is similar to that of wing-body junction flows, there are some differences owing to the presence of a wall at both ends of the strut. Likewise, some differences are due to the sheared inflow (as opposed to a uniform inflow) velocity profile. It is however expected that some features of a wing-body junction flow would persist. Next, some of the salient aspects of the complex flow near a wing-body junction, as revealed by various studies reported in the literature will be reviewed. One of the principle characteristics of the juncture flow, is the presence of the mean flow components in a plane perpendicular to the direction of the oncoming free-stream flow. The lateral curvature of the wing/strat causes the oncoming turbulent layer to skew about am axis (x-axis) parallel to the plane (xz-plane) of the mean shear. This is the principle mechanism for the generation of secondary flow. Such skew-induced secondary flows are slow to be attenuated by Reynolds stresses. Additional contribution to the generation of secondary flow comes from anisotropies in Reynolds stresses. Upstream of the strut, the mean-vorticity is directed span wise (along the y-direction). The presence of secondary flow in the vicinity of the strut causes the vorticity to stretch around the obstacle in a horse-shoe shape, with each leg having a vorticity of the opposite sense. The blockage effect of the strut imposes a severe adverse pressure gradient on the oncoming turbulent shear layer, causing boundary layer separation ahead of the leading edge, resulting in a vortex that rolls up and flows downstream into the juncture region. The separation vortices trailing in the wake of the wing can alter the lift or drag characteristics of the surfaces downstream of the wing-body juncture. Likewise, on submarines, the wake flow behind the appendage can degrade the performance of the propeller located downstream. The complex nature of this flow is caused by the presence of all six components of Reynolds stresses. Devenport and Simpson report that in the vicinity of the horse-shoe vortex there is intense recirculation with turbulent stresses being much larger than those normally observed in turbulent flows. These features contribute to making this flow a challenge to predict numerically. Some of the past studies provide useful insights into this flow that would guide our numerical efforts. In measurements reported by Shabaka and Bradshaw, the eddy viscosity tensor is seen to be non-isotropic and has negative components in certain regions. In an effort to evaluate the closure assumptions of various turbulence models, Devenport and Simpson used their own extensive measurements in juncture flows around the nose of a wing-body junction. Measured values of mean-velocity and/or turbulence kinetic energy was used to predict the magnitude of the shear stress vector. Algebraic stress models performed the best followed by Cebeci-Smith eddy viscosity model. The flow is reported to be dominated by a pressure field produced by the wing and the velocity field generated by the horseshoe vortex that is wrapped around the junction between the wing and wall. Kubendran et al. conclude from an experimental study that the shape of leading edge of the wing as characterized by its slenderness ratio is a major factor in determining the flow fields in the juncture region. The more thinner the leading edge of the juncture, the weaker the horseshoe vortex is. Also, with a slender leading edge, the secondary flow in the juncture would be due mainly to the cross-stream gradients of Reynolds stresses rather than due to a lateral skewing of the shear layer.

Krishnamurthy, R.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Wire Detection Algorithms for Navigation

In this research we addressed the problem of obstacle detection for low altitude rotorcraft flight. In particular, the problem of detecting thin wires in the presence of image clutter and noise was studied. Wires present a serious hazard to rotorcrafts. Since they are very thin, their detection early enough so that the pilot has enough time to take evasive action is difficult, as their images can be less than one or two pixels wide. Two approaches were explored for this purpose. The first approach involved a technique for sub-pixel edge detection and subsequent post processing, in order to reduce the false alarms. After reviewing the line detection literature, an algorithm for sub-pixel edge detection proposed by Steger was identified as having good potential to solve the considered task. The algorithm was tested using a set of images synthetically generated by combining real outdoor images with computer generated wire images. The performance of the algorithm was evaluated both, at the pixel and the wire levels. It was observed that the algorithm performs well, provided that the wires are not too thin (or distant) and that some post processing is performed to remove false alarms due to clutter. The second approach involved the use of an example-based learning scheme namely, Support Vector Machines. The purpose of this approach was to explore the feasibility of an example-based learning based approach for the task of detecting wires from their images. Support Vector Machines (SVMs) have emerged as a promising pattern classification tool and have been used in various applications. It was found that this approach is not suitable for very thin wires and of course, not suitable at all for sub-pixel thick wires. High dimensionality of the data as such does not present a major problem for SVMs. However it is desirable to have a large number of training examples especially for high dimensional data. The main difficulty in using SVMs (or any other example-based learning method) is the need for a very good set of positive and negative examples since the performance depends on the quality of the training set.

Kasturi, Rangachar↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Probabilistic Modeling of a Three-Stage Human Landing System Architecture

Space Policy Directive-1 has led to NASA partnerships with commercial entities on procurement which includes the development of the Human Landing System (HLS) [1]. With the goal of delivering human crew to the lunar surface by 2024, system uncertainties become an important obstacle to the maturation of multiple new, driving technologies and mission concepts of the HLS program. As unmitigated uncertainties have previously led to failed development programs, these risks and their impacts must be understood and handled to ensure program success [2]. Sources of uncertainty include novel engine designs and configurations, increased reliance on cryogenic fluid management(CFM), and refueling technologies—which propagate as high-level performance metrics such as overall propellant mass and engine performance. Also, the occurrence of operational uncertainties—e.g. launch conditions or need to abort during the mission—can cause cascading effects on the rest of the mission that are difficult to definitively quantify, and are outside the scope of control. These concrete examples and other occurrences can be categorized as either epistemic or aleatory uncertainties.Epistemic uncertainty arises due to a lack of knowledge and can be alleviated with design and program maturation. Aleatory uncertainty is due to the inherent randomness of the system and cannot be directly reduced, unlike epistemic uncertainty. Robust design and probabilistic methods can compensate for aleatory effects. A taxonomy of uncertainty is referred to for this work [3]. In this paper, a probabilistic methodology to handle uncertainties has been demonstrated on a three-element HLS concept [1, 4], which allows tracking of current best estimates of the concept and assessment of concept design robustness against uncertainties. A sample case has been completed for this abstract, and an expansion on the methodology will be included in the final paper. This methodology has two key parts: first, the creation of a dynamic architecture model of a three-element HLS concept; and second, its use with surrogate modeling and range estimating techniques to capture and propagate uncertainties. This abstract will cover the basics of the approach used, and further details and justifications will be in the final paper.The mission profile associated with this three-element concept (Fig 1) was modeled as a set of mission events that facilitated mass changes, idles, or spacecraft maneuvers. The mission profile scope starts with each element’s NRHO orbit insertion and aggregation and ends at post-sortie rendezvous with Orion. More detail on the mission profile will be in the final paper. The DYnamic Rocket EQuation Tool (DYREQT), a space systems synthesis and sizing framework used by NASA, was used as the physics framework to model the HLS architecture for applying the probabilistic methodology [5, 6]. Specifically, a parametric representation of the lander, ascent, and transfer elements and the mission profile of each element was established, with vehicle and mission parameters available as inputs to allow for a dynamic model. Each vehicle stage was modeled with high-level performance metrics, using Isp and propellant mass fraction (PMF) to remain parametric. For the probabilistic analysis, uncertainties of interest within the HLS concept were enumerated and represented as parameters within the DYREQT model as inputs for vehicle stages or mission profile events. These parameters were frozen at their nominal values for the purposes of baselining architecture performance and sizing the vehicle appropriately based on reference documentation [1]. Range estimating—a probabilistic method that combines Monte Carlo sampling, focus on critical parameters, and heuristics to assess risk and opportunities—is traditionally used with Mass Equipment Lists (MELs), but has been adapted with operational parameters as well as vehicle parameters in theDYREQT model to capture mission uncertainty alongside vehicle uncertainty [7, 3]. This method was selected due to its application and insight on a system from a bottom-up perspective, independence from historical rules of thumb, and ability to generate sensitivities based on design decisions and uncertainties. As a sample case for the abstract, the boiloff rates of the vehicle elements and the loiter times during the mission (simulating launch time variations and changing window of opportunities) were used with range estimating to provide preliminary results. To perform the range estimation portion of this methodology (depicted in Fig. 3, further details in final paper), the DYREQT model was sampled using a Design of Experiments (DoE) to efficiently explore the architecture design space with respect to the sample set of uncertainty parameters; 5,000 cases via Latin Hypercube Sampling were computed on the DYREQT architecture model. Then, the results were used to create surrogate models, multivariate regressions that can visualize hypercube trends in the design space, of the architecture with respect to the uncertainty parameters. Range estimating was applied to the surrogates instead of the actual models, which saves computational expense due to the bulk of cases needed for the Monte Carlo simulation as part of range estimating. Uncertainty parameters were sampled independently from triangular distributions using the DoE ranges as ‘min’ and ‘max’, and the nominal value as ‘most likely’. Based engineering intuition, some uncertainty parameters are correlated—e.g. if the main propellant has a high boil-off rate, the oxidizer should follow suit as both are related to CFM technology.While a Monte Carlo simulation samples all inputs as independent, the results would show model correlations; thus, it is efficient to sample the inputs as correlated. Using a correlation matrix constructed for the uncertainty parameters, previously independent samples were transformed to perform a Correlated Monte Carlo. A table for the DoE ranges and probability distribution parameters is shown in Table 1, and more details on Correlated Monte Carlo Simulations will be discussed in the final paper. The model’s resulting DoE showed that multivariate polynomial equations fit via least squares method captured its behavior accurately for the sample case. For the Correlated Monte Carlo Simulation, a positive correlation between fuel and oxidizer boiloff rates was used as a demonstration. 10,000 cases were computed with the surrogates and the launched masses for each vehicle element was collated. The results can be displayed in a probability density function (PDF), showing the impact of the uncertainty parameters chosen. Integrating the PDFs will yield a cumulative distribution function (CDF) that shows the cumulative probability of a given value on the x-axis. For the sample case, the elements’ launch mass margin was calculated and represented in as CDFs, as a demonstrated representation of figures of merit for the HLS concept. For the lander and ascent elements, the NRHO mass insertion limit is 16t; the transfer element has a limit of 30t [1]. It can be seen with Figure 2 that this probabilistic methodology can provide insight into mass margin with respect to the uncertainties being modeled. Currently, the results show that the lander (descent) vehicle element has the most restrictive design space; it is the only element to show a 10% probability of negative margin. Further analysis on the Monte Carlo results will show sensitivities for driving constraints and parameters for architecture feasibility, which can lead to establishing potential mission rules.The combination of range estimating with a parametric architecture model for HLS demonstrated the capability of this probabilistic methodology in a sample case. As the HLS development progresses, this methodology has the potential for keeping current best estimates of architecture performance for awarded concepts due to the flexibility in DYREQT’s modeling framework and its parametric nature. Concept maturation and increased epistemic knowledge can be injected into the model probabilistic modeling, and thus continue to track probability of mission success.

Stephanie Y Zhu↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Machine Learning Approach to Improve Air Traffic Management Initiatives

Collaborating closely with commercial air carriers and related organizations, the Federal Aviation Administration(FAA) regulates air traffic and ensures the safety and efficiency of air operations. Air traffic controllers make strategic decisions, such as delaying, rerouting, or canceling flights, partly based on guidance provided by the FAA’s Air TrafficControl System Command Center (ATCSCC). The guidance includes, among other things, control measures known asTraffic Management Initiatives (TMIs) designed to enhance safety and improve operational efficiency. TMIs play a crucial role in managing the demand and capacity within the U.S. National Airspace System (NAS). Two major TMIs that are routinely used (primarily to mitigate the adverse effects of bad weather) are Ground Delay Programs (GDPs) andGround Stops (GSs). In a GDP, flights destined for airports facing thunderstorm activity experience delays at their origin airports. This proactive approach minimizes the risk of routing aircraft through hazardous weather conditions and also replaces (fuel burning) airborne delays with ground delays. In a GS, a temporary restriction is imposed on the departure or arrival of aircraft at a specific airport or within a designated airspace. Although other TMIs (e.g., miles-in-trail) are also implemented as part of (air) traffic flow management in the NAS, the focus of this work is on GDPs and GSs. Since TMIs, by design, lead to flight delays or cancellations, it is crucial to put in place the right set of parameters(e.g., scope and duration of the GDP). For example, when the end time of a GDP extends beyond what is necessary, it imposes unnecessary delays on departing flights. This situation could occur as a result of inaccurate prediction of the(required) duration of the GDP based on the weather forecast. On the other hand, if a GDP ends prematurely before the underlying capacity constraints are resolved at the destination airport, it may result in airborne holding. The delicate balance lies in matching the termination of the GDP precisely with the resolution of capacity constraints, avoiding both the imposition of unnecessary ground delays and the need for airborne holding due to premature program termination.Failing to specify the right parameters for TMIs also leads to flight delays, creating a significant obstacle in managing the increasing traffic volumes causing increased work load for the controllers. To address this issue, we propose the integration of Machine Learning (ML) models in the traffic flow management(TFM) pipeline. In current operations, decisions are made by human experts based on extensive training, historical patterns, available traffic and weather data. Since we have an abundance of data from past events that tell us the likely impact of various TMIs, by ingesting historical data, properly trained ML models can offer valuable insights and aid human decision-making. With the FAA increasingly exploring advanced analytics, ML emerges as a focal point for enhancing TFM within the National Airspace System (NAS). As a first step, this study aims to provide traffic controllers with decision-making support for the issuance and adjustment of TMIs. Data analytics and machine learning have been previously employed to address some of the challenges associated with TMIs. Numerous studies have concentrated on various facets of TMI issuance, exploring factors influencing TMI parameters, including arrival rate, airport capacity, and delay prediction. For example, using weather forecasts, several statistical methods were used to produce probabilistic capacity profiles which in conjunction with deterministic models provided insights into the GDP planning process [1–4]. The downside of using deterministic models is that they rely on fixed inputs and predetermined rules, which lack the ability to account for the inherent uncertainty and variability present in real-world scenarios. In a separate series of studies, researchers aimed to predict the occurrences of GDPs and GSs. The majority of these studies utilized various supervised learning methods, including Decision Trees, Naive Bayes, Support VectorMachines, and Random Forests to analyze the influence of weather conditions and arrival demand on TMI incidents[5–8]. However, these studies primarily focused on predicting the incidence of TMIs without explicitly addressing the scope of TMIs, including their duration and their geographical coverage. Furthermore, the emphasis of these studies was largely on GDPs, given their higher frequency and longer duration when compared to GSs. A limited number of studies focused on predicting the parameters of TMIs, specifically addressing their duration and extent. In one such study focusing on optimizing the TMI parameters at San Francisco International Airport (SFO),the authors utilized a probabilistic forecast of fog [9]. They simulated various capacity scenarios based on the (fog)burn-off forecasts, selecting GDP parameters that minimized airborne and overall ground delays. However, this approach exclusively emphasizes stratus (fog) burn-off as the primary determinant of GDP and GS, neglecting other influential factors like severe weather events, runway closures, lower capacity than traffic demand, and other important variables. Given the complexity of predicting the TMI and determining its scope, we seek a more holistic approach. We aim to consider all significant factors that could impact TMIs and their parameters. What sets this research apart is the fusion of all data sources relevant to the issuance and adjustment of TMIs and it represents the first comprehensive attempt to optimize TMIs in this manner. Since this comprehensive solution involves various aspects, we break down the problem into smaller components and input all parameters into a unified model called the “TMI Adjuster”. Figure 1 shows the overall framework and the list of datasets used in each model. The objective of the TMI Adjuster module is to deliver reliable, consistent and expedited recommendations for the progression, adjustment, and termination of TMIs. The ML solution entails developing a pipeline capable of predicting the necessity of a TMI (e.g., GS or GDP) along with its various parameters. For example, in the case of a GS, this includes the scope of the GS either in terms of distance from the destination airport or based on pre-defined airspace sectors. Here, scope refers to those regions and departing airports that are subject to the GS. In this paper, we concentrate on the issuance of GSs in the three major airports in the New York area — LaGuardia(LGA), John F. Kennedy International (JFK), and Newark Liberty International (EWR). We fuse traffic, weather and other relevant aviation data from years 2017 to 2019 to train and validate the ML models. In particular, we use the following datasets: •Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF): meteorological forecasts specific to each airport, issued four times a day, covering predefined time periods. •TMI data: includes all GSs and GDPs along with their respective parameters. •Aviation System Performance Metrics (ASPM): includes traffic related data such as aircraft delays, arrival, and departure rates. •Notices to Airmen (NOTAMs): utilized to extract runway closure data and manage interdependencies between terminals in close proximity. •Flight cancellation data •Airspace Flow Programs (AFP): includes information on flight airborne holdings caused by TMIs. The data preprocessing entails transforming ASPM, TMI, AFP, NOTAMs, and weather data into an hourly format and consolidating all datasets by merging them based on date and time as the primary key. The TMI Adjuster framework comprises two parallel models: one dedicated to GS and a second model focused on GDP. As previously mentioned, our specific focus is on the GS model as a multi-classification problem. In this framework, each data point of the GS model input summarizes ten hours of data. Specifically, the data loader for the GS model generates the input and output of the model as follows: at a given time step, the input includes the actual traffic, weather, and TMI data from the two-hour window before the time step, alongside the weather forecast and scheduled traffic for the next 8 hours starting from the time step. Based on this information, the output of the GS model for each time interval consists of three dimensions. The first dimension represents a binary decision on whether there should be a GS in place for the next hour or not. The second dimension is related to the scope of the GS in the United States, and the third dimension is related to the scope of the GS in Canada (i.e., to determine if the GS impacts airports in Canada).One of the challenges with TMI modeling is the sparsity of TMI events, particularly regarding its scope. To address this challenge in the scope of the GS model output, we implement grouping. The GS scope for the US region is defined based on a list of centers that should be included when the GS is in place. With 20 centers in the US, we utilized historical data to group them into 4 categories. In particular, we summarized our historical data in a graph format where nodes represent centers, and link weights are defined based on the co-occurrence of centers in the scope parameter ofTMIs. By identified strongly connected components in this graph, we were able to partition the centers into four groups. We consider two model structures for the GS Model. Firstly, a hierarchical classification model [10], where the human decision-making for a GS is of hierarchical nature. The decision-maker first decides whether there is a need fora GS, and if the answer is yes, determines the scope. A hierarchical classification model organizes the problem into a class hierarchy, typically a tree or a Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) structure, and considers the dependency of the decision in the previous step to the next component [10]. Here, we employ the local classifier per level approach, which involves training one multi-class classifier for each level of the class hierarchy. The second structure is the independent structure. In this setting, as the name suggests, we do not consider the dependency of the decisions in the different dimensions of the output of the model. Instead, for each dimension, we train a multi-class classifier independently. Table 1 summarizes GS model statistics for training, validation and testing. The table documents the effect of limiting data to the time steps when there was actually a TMI in place or when a TMI had just terminated. This resulted in a more balanced distribution of the GS class(GS positive class)versus “No GS”(GS negative class), which might help the training process. While JFK and LGA follow very similar distributions, with 40% and 42% GS positive class respectively, EWR has proportionally fewer GS incidents at 28%. Our subsequent phase involves evaluating the performance of both hierarchical structure and independent structure using different state-of-the-art multi-class classifier models such as Random Forest, Decision Trees, K-nearest Neighbors, and Logistic Regression and forecast the duration and scope of the GSs.

Farzan Masrour Shalmani↗