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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS2017

Implicitly Coordinated Detect and Avoid Capability for Safe Autonomous Operation of Small UAS

As the airspace becomes increasingly shared by autonomous small Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS), there would be a pressing need for coordination strategies so that aircraft can safely and independently maneuver around obstacles, geofences, and traffic aircraft. Explicitly coordinating resolution strategies for small UAS would require additional components such as a reliable vehicle-to-vehicle communication infrastructure and standardized protocols for information exchange that could significantly increase the cost of deploying small UAS in a shared airspace. This paper explores a novel approach that enables multiple aircraft to implicitly coordinate their resolution maneuvers. By requiring all aircraft to execute the proposed approach deterministically, it is possible for all of them to implicitly agree on the region of airspace each will be occupying in a given time interval. The proposed approach lends itself to the construction of a suitable feedback mechanism that enables the real-time execution of an implicitly conflict-free path in a closed-loop manner dealing with uncertainties in aircraft speed. If a network infrastructure is available, the proposed approach can also exploit the benefits of explicit information.

Balachandran, Swee↗
NASA NTRS1991

Expert networks in CLIPS

Rule-based expert systems may be structurally and functionally mapped onto a special class of neural networks called expert networks. This mapping lends itself to adaptation of connectionist learning strategies for the expert networks. A parsing algorithm to translate C Language Integrated Production System (CLIPS) rules into a network of interconnected assertion and operation nodes has been developed. The translation of CLIPS rules to an expert network and back again is illustrated. Measures of uncertainty similar to those rules in MYCIN-like systems are introduced into the CLIPS system and techniques for combining and hiring nodes in the network based on rule-firing with these certainty factors in the expert system are presented. Several learning algorithms are under study which automate the process of attaching certainty factors to rules.

Hruska, S. I.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Retrieval Assimilation and Modeling of Atmospheric Water Vapor from Ground- and Space-Based GPS Networks: Investigation of the Global and Regional Hydrological Cycles

Uncertainty over the response of the atmospheric hydrological cycle (particularly the distribution of water vapor and cloudiness) to anthropogenic forcing is a primary source of doubt in current estimates of global climate sensitivity, which raises severe difficulties in evaluating its likely societal impact. Fortunately, a variety of advanced techniques and sensors are beginning to shed new light on the atmospheric hydrological cycle. One of the most promising makes use of the sensitivity of the Global Positioning System (GPS) to the thermodynamic state, and in particular the water vapor content, of the atmosphere through which the radio signals propagate. Our strategy to derive the maximum benefit for hydrological studies from the rapidly increasing GPS data stream will proceed in three stages: (1) systematically analyze and archive quality-controlled retrievals using state-of-the-art techniques; (2) employ both currently available and innovative assimilation procedures to incorporate these determinations into advanced regional and global atmospheric models and assess their effects; and (3) apply the results to investigate selected scientific issues of relevance to regional and global hydrological studies. An archive of GPS-based estimation of total zenith delay (TZD) data and water vapor where applicable has been established with expanded automated quality control. The accuracy of the GPS estimates is being monitored; the investigation of systematic errors is ongoing using comparisons with water vapor radiometers. Meteorological packages have been implemented. The accuracy and utilization of the TZD estimates has been improved by implementing a troposphere gradient model. GPS-based gradients have been validated as real atmospheric moisture gradients, establishing a link between the estimated gradients and the passage of weather fronts. We have developed a generalized ray tracing inversion scheme that can be used to analyze occultation data acquired from space- or land-based receivers. The National Center for Atmospheric Research mesoscale model (version MM5) has been adapted for Southern California, and assimilation studies are underway. Additional information is contained in the original.

Dickey, Jean O.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Adaptive Control for Microgravity Vibration Isolation System

Most active vibration isolation systems that try to a provide quiescent acceleration environment for space science experiments have utilized linear design methods. In this paper, we address adaptive control augmentation of an existing classical controller that employs a high-gain acceleration feedback together with a low-gain position feedback to center the isolated platform. The control design feature includes parametric and dynamic uncertainties because the hardware of the isolation system is built as a payload-level isolator, and the acceleration Sensor exhibits a significant bias. A neural network is incorporated to adaptively compensate for the system uncertainties, and a high-pass filter is introduced to mitigate the effect of the measurement bias. Simulations show that the adaptive control improves the performance of the existing acceleration controller and keep the level of the isolated platform deviation to that of the existing control system.

Yang, Bong-Jun↗
NASA NTRS2019

Potential Improvements in Global Carbon Flux Estimates from a Network of Laser Heterodyne Radiometer Measurements of Column Carbon Dioxide

We present observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) to evaluate the impact of a proposed network of ground-based miniaturized laser heterodyne radiometer (mini-LHR) instruments that measure atmospheric column-averaged carbon dioxide (XCO2) with a 1 ppm precision. A particular strength of this passive measurement approach is its insensitivity to clouds and aerosols due to its direct sun pointing and narrow field of view (0.2°). Developed at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), these portable, low-cost mini-LHR instruments were designed to operate in tandem with the sun photometers used by the AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET). This partnership allows us to leverage the existing framework of AERONET's global ground network of more than 500 sites as well as providing simultaneous measurements of aerosols that are known to be a major source of error in retrievals of XCO2 from passive nadir-viewing satellite observations. We show, using the global 3-D GEOS-Chem chemistry transport model, that a deployment of 50 mini-LHRs at strategic (but not optimized) AERONET sites significantly improves our knowledge of global and regional land-based CO2 fluxes. This improvement varies seasonally and ranges 58%–81% over southern lands, 47%–76% over tropical lands, 71%–92% over northern lands, and 64%–91% globally. We also show significant added value from combining mini-LHR instruments with the existing ground-based NOAA flask network. Collectively, these data result in improved a posteriori CO2 flux estimates on spatial scales of ∼10 km2, especially over North America and Europe, where the ground-based networks are densest. Our studies suggest that the mini-LHR network could also play a substantive role in reducing carbon flux uncertainty in Arctic and tropical systems by filling in geographical gaps in measurements left by ground-based networks and space-based observations. A realized network would also provide necessary data for the quinquennial global stock takes that form part of the Paris Agreement.

Palmer, Paul I.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Optical production systems using neural networks and symbolic substitution

Two optical implementations of production systems are advanced. The production systems operate on a knowledge base where facts and rules are encoded as formulas in propositional calculus. The first implementation is a binary neural network. An analog neural network is used to include reasoning with uncertainties. The second implementation uses a new optical symbolic substitution correlator. This implementation is useful when a set of similar situations has to be handled in parallel on one processor.

Botha, Elizabeth↗
NASA NTRS1989

Proceedings of the NASA Conference on Space Telerobotics, volume 1

The theme of the Conference was man-machine collaboration in space. Topics addressed include: redundant manipulators; man-machine systems; telerobot architecture; remote sensing and planning; navigation; neural networks; fundamental AI research; and reasoning under uncertainty.

Rodriguez, Guillermo↗
NASA NTRS2001

A Hybrid Neural Network-Genetic Algorithm Technique for Aircraft Engine Performance Diagnostics

In this paper, a model-based diagnostic method, which utilizes Neural Networks and Genetic Algorithms, is investigated. Neural networks are applied to estimate the engine internal health, and Genetic Algorithms are applied for sensor bias detection and estimation. This hybrid approach takes advantage of the nonlinear estimation capability provided by neural networks while improving the robustness to measurement uncertainty through the application of Genetic Algorithms. The hybrid diagnostic technique also has the ability to rank multiple potential solutions for a given set of anomalous sensor measurements in order to reduce false alarms and missed detections. The performance of the hybrid diagnostic technique is evaluated through some case studies derived from a turbofan engine simulation. The results show this approach is promising for reliable diagnostics of aircraft engines.

Kobayashi, Takahisa↗
NASA NTRS2013

Validation and Uncertainty Estimates for MODIS Collection 6 "Deep Blue" Aerosol Data

The "Deep Blue" aerosol optical depth (AOD) retrieval algorithm was introduced in Collection 5 of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) product suite, and complemented the existing "Dark Target" land and ocean algorithms by retrieving AOD over bright arid land surfaces, such as deserts. The forthcoming Collection 6 of MODIS products will include a "second generation" Deep Blue algorithm, expanding coverage to all cloud-free and snow-free land surfaces. The Deep Blue dataset will also provide an estimate of the absolute uncertainty on AOD at 550 nm for each retrieval. This study describes the validation of Deep Blue Collection 6 AOD at 550 nm (Tau(sub M)) from MODIS Aqua against Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) data from 60 sites to quantify these uncertainties. The highest quality (denoted quality assurance flag value 3) data are shown to have an absolute uncertainty of approximately (0.086+0.56Tau(sub M))/AMF, where AMF is the geometric air mass factor. For a typical AMF of 2.8, this is approximately 0.03+0.20Tau(sub M), comparable in quality to other satellite AOD datasets. Regional variability of retrieval performance and comparisons against Collection 5 results are also discussed.

MODIS collection 6↗
NASA NTRS1991

Experiments on neural network architectures for fuzzy logic

The use of fuzzy logic to model and manage uncertainty in a rule-based system places high computational demands on an inference engine. In an earlier paper, the authors introduced a trainable neural network structure for fuzzy logic. These networks can learn and extrapolate complex relationships between possibility distributions for the antecedents and consequents in the rules. Here, the power of these networks is further explored. The insensitivity of the output to noisy input distributions (which are likely if the clauses are generated from real data) is demonstrated as well as the ability of the networks to internalize multiple conjunctive clause and disjunctive clause rules. Since different rules with the same variables can be encoded in a single network, this approach to fuzzy logic inference provides a natural mechanism for rule conflict resolution.

Keller, James M.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Multistroke cloud-to-ground strike to the NASA F-106B airplane

An analysis of electromagnetic waveform records and video images of a multistroke cloud-to-ground (CG) strike to the NASA F-106B instrumented airplane is presented. The CG flash started as a lightning strike triggered by the airplane and later produced multiple return strokes to the ground (the ground strike network registered six return strokes). Although there are some uncertainties in data interpretation resulting from lack of independent measurements with other than the airborne instruments, recoil streamers and eight sequences of dart leaders followed by return strokes (two more than were indicated by the ground network) were identified in the airborne data. At least three of the subsequent return strokes were attached to the airplane. The analysis provides evidence that formation of recoil streamers and dart leaders is accompanied by a surge in continuous current. This feature is similar to that observed in the bidirectional leader development during lightning initiation on the airplane.

Mazur, Vladislav↗
NASA NTRS2000

Qualitative Discovery in Medical Databases

Implication rules have been used in uncertainty reasoning systems to confirm and draw hypotheses or conclusions. However a major bottleneck in developing such systems lies in the elicitation of these rules. This paper empirically examines the performance of evidential inferencing with implication networks generated using a rule induction tool called KAT. KAT utilizes an algorithm for the statistical analysis of empirical case data, and hence reduces the knowledge engineering efforts and biases in subjective implication certainty assignment. The paper describes several experiments in which real-world diagnostic problems were investigated; namely, medical diagnostics. In particular, it attempts to show that: (1) with a limited number of case samples, KAT is capable of inducing implication networks useful for making evidential inferences based on partial observations, and (2) observation driven by a network entropy optimization mechanism is effective in reducing the uncertainty of predicted events.

Maluf, David A.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Near Rectilinear Halo Orbit Determination with Simulated DSN Observations

This paper presents the results of a high-fidelity simulation of spacecraft orbit determination in a near rectilinear halo orbit (NRHO). Others in the literature have examined this problem with linear covariance analysis, but the highly-nonlinear dynamics of this orbit challenge the assumptions underlying such analyses. The present work builds on similar analysis performed by other authors to contribute a fuller understanding of the operational requirements for NRHO navigation. The present work serves as a check to the assumptions of previous studies and an independent verification of those results. The results from the literature are extended by quantifying the space of orbital states from which a spacecraft with given control authority can safely return to the nominal path. Spacecraft state uncertainty estimates are evaluated as a function of time. Simulated range and range-rate measurements with the Deep Space Network (DSN) ground stations are used to model orbit determination accuracy. Orbit maintenance maneuvers are performed using both short-horizon and long-horizon stationkeeping targeting. Monte Carlo analysis of orbit determination and stationkeeping is performed. This paper quantifies the achievable state uncertainty with deep space network (DSN)-only range and range-rate observations. This paper also addresses requirements on the frequency of DSN observation periods and correlates ground contact frequency with navigation accuracy. The results of several related studies are presented and discussed: the effect of missing ground station passes, the effect of missing stationkeeping maneuvers, the sensitivity of the spacecraft state estimate to realistic error sources, and stationkeeping propellant budget.

Nathan L Parrish↗
NASA NTRS2004

Time Changes of the European Gravity Field from GRACE: A Comparison with Ground Measurements from Superconducting Gravimeters and with Hydrology Model Predictions

We investigate the time-variable gravity changes in Europe retrieved from the initial GRACE monthly solutions spanning a 18 month duration from April 2002 to October 2003. Gravity anomaly maps are retrieved in Central Europe from the monthly satellite solutions we compare the fields according to various truncation levels (typically between degree 10 and 20) of the initial fields (expressed in spherical harmonics to degree 120). For these different degrees, an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) decomposition of the time-variable gravity field leads us to its main spatial and temporal characteristics. We show that the dominant signal is found to be annual with an amplitude and a phase both in agreement with predictions in Europe modeled using snow and soil-moisture variations from recent hydrology models. We compare these GRACE gravity field changes to surface gravity observations from 6 superconducting gravimeters of the GGP (Global Geodynamics Project) European sub-network, with a special attention to loading corrections. Initial results suggest that all 3 data sets (GRACE, hydrology and GGP) are responding to annual changes in near-surface water in Europe of a few microGal (at length scales of approx.1000 km) that show a high value in winter and a summer minimum. We also point out that the GRACE gravity field evolution seems to indicate that there is a trend in gravity between summer 2002 and summer 2003 which can be related to the 2003 heatwave in Europe and its hydrological consequences (drought). Despite the limited time span of our analysis and the uncertainties in retrieving a regional solution from the network of gravimeters, the calibration and validation aspects of the GRACE data processing based on the annual hydrology cycle in Europe are in progress.

Hinderer, J.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Space Shuttle RTOS Bayesian Network

With shrinking budgets and the requirements to increase reliability and operational life of the existing orbiter fleet, NASA has proposed various upgrades for the Space Shuttle that are consistent with national space policy. The cockpit avionics upgrade (CAU), a high priority item, has been selected as the next major upgrade. The primary functions of cockpit avionics include flight control, guidance and navigation, communication, and orbiter landing support. Secondary functions include the provision of operational services for non-avionics systems such as data handling for the payloads and caution and warning alerts to the crew. Recently, a process to selection the optimal commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) real-time operating system (RTOS) for the CAU was conducted by United Space Alliance (USA) Corporation, which is a joint venture between Boeing and Lockheed Martin, the prime contractor for space shuttle operations. In order to independently assess the RTOS selection, NASA has used the Bayesian network-based scoring methodology described in this paper. Our two-stage methodology addresses the issue of RTOS acceptability by incorporating functional, performance and non-functional software measures related to reliability, interoperability, certifiability, efficiency, correctness, business, legal, product history, cost and life cycle. The first stage of the methodology involves obtaining scores for the various measures using a Bayesian network. The Bayesian network incorporates the causal relationships between the various and often competing measures of interest while also assisting the inherently complex decision analysis process with its ability to reason under uncertainty. The structure and selection of prior probabilities for the network is extracted from experts in the field of real-time operating systems. Scores for the various measures are computed using Bayesian probability. In the second stage, multi-criteria trade-off analyses are performed between the scores. Using a prioritization of measures from the decision-maker, trade-offs between the scores are used to rank order the available set of RTOS candidates.

Morris, A. Terry↗
NASA NTRS2023

The Impact and Estimation of Uncertainty Correlation for Multi-Angle Polarimetric Remote Sensing of Aerosols and Ocean Color

Multi-angle polarimetric (MAP) measurements contain rich information for characterization of aerosol microphysical and optical properties that can be used to improve atmospheric correction in ocean color remote sensing. Advanced retrieval algorithms have been developed to obtain multiple geophysical parameters in the atmosphere-ocean system, although uncertainty correlation among measurements is generally ignored due to lack of knowledge on its strength and characterization. In this work, we provide a practical framework to evaluate the impact of the angular uncertainty correlation from retrieval results and a method to estimate correlation strength from retrieval fitting residuals. The Fast Multi-Angular Polarimetric Ocean coLor (FastMAPOL) retrieval algorithm, based on neural network forward models, is used to conduct the retrievals and uncertainty quantification. In addition, we also discuss a flexible approach to include a correlated uncertainty model in the retrieval algorithm. The impact of angular correlation on retrieval uncertainties is discussed based on synthetic AirHARP and HARP2 measurements using a Monte Carlo uncertainty estimation method. Correlation properties are estimated using auto-correlation functions based on the fitting residuals from both synthetic AirHARP and HARP2 data and real AirHARP measurement, with the resulting angular correlation parameters found to be larger than 0.9 and 0.8 for reflectance and DoLP, respectively, which correspond to correlation angles of 10° and 5°. Although this study focuses on angular correlation from HARP instruments, the methodology to study and quantify uncertainty correlation is also applicable to other instruments with angular, spectral, or spatial correlations, and can help inform laboratory calibration and characterization of the instrument uncertainty structure.

PACE↗
NASA NTRS2015

The Role of Margin in Link Design and Optimization

Link analysis is a system engineering process in the design, development, and operation of communication systems and networks. Link models that are mathematical abstractions representing the useful signal power and the undesirable noise and attenuation effects (including weather effects if the signal path transverses through the atmosphere) that are integrated into the link budget calculation that provides the estimates of signal power and noise power at the receiver. Then the link margin is applied which attempts to counteract the fluctuations of the signal and noise power to ensure reliable data delivery from transmitter to receiver. (Link margin is dictated by the link margin policy or requirements.) A simple link budgeting approach assumes link parameters to be deterministic values typically adopted a rule-of-thumb policy of 3 dB link margin. This policy works for most S- and X-band links due to their insensitivity to weather effects. But for higher frequency links like Ka-band, Ku-band, and optical communication links, it is unclear if a 3 dB link margin would guarantee link closure. Statistical link analysis that adopted the 2-sigma or 3-sigma link margin incorporates link uncertainties in the sigma calculation. (The Deep Space Network (DSN) link margin policies are 2-sigma for downlink and 3-sigma for uplink.) The link reliability can therefore be quantified statistically even for higher frequency links. However in the current statistical link analysis approach, link reliability is only expressed as the likelihood of exceeding the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) threshold that corresponds to a given bit-error-rate (BER) or frame-error-rate (FER) requirement. The method does not provide the true BER or FER estimate of the link with margin, or the required signalto-noise ratio (SNR) that would meet the BER or FER requirement in the statistical sense. In this paper, we perform in-depth analysis on the relationship between BER/FER requirement, operating SNR, and coding performance curve, in the case when the channel coherence time of link fluctuation is comparable or larger than the time duration of a codeword. We compute the "true" SNR design point that would meet the BER/FER requirement by taking into account the fluctuation of signal power and noise power at the receiver, and the shape of the coding performance curve. This analysis yields a number of valuable insights on the design choices of coding scheme and link margin for the reliable data delivery of a communication system - space and ground. We illustrate the aforementioned analysis using a number of standard NASA error-correcting codes.

Cheung, K.↗
NASA NTRS2022

Look-up Table Approach for Uncertainty Determination for Operational Vicarious Calibration of Earth Imaging Sensors

Understanding the uncertainty of a vicarious calibration is essential for any application to Earth imaging sensors. The Radiometric Calibration Network provides SI-traceable spectral top-of-atmosphere (TOA) reflectance from a network of ground sites and uses a look-up table (LUT) approach for uncertainty determination. The uncertainty LUT was derived using Monte Carlo techniques applied to the relevant solar geometry, surface, and atmospheric variables. While surface reflectance is typically the dominant uncertainty source, atmospheric contributions do play an important role, depending upon the exact scenario and conditions. This approach allows knowledge of TOA reflectance uncertainty to within 0.5%.

Brian N. Wenny↗