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Climate change signal in global agriculture emerges earlier in new generation of climate and crop models

Potential climate-related impacts on future crop yield are a major societal concern first surveyed in a harmonized multi-model effort in 2014. We report here on new 21st-century projections using ensembles of latest-generation crop and climate models. Results suggest markedly more pessimistic yield responses for maize, soybean, and rice compared to the original ensemble. Mean end-of-century maize productivity is shifted from +5 to -6% (SSP126) and +1 to -24% (SSP585) — explained by warmer climate projections and improved crop model sensitivities. In contrast, wheat shows stronger gains (+9 shifted to +18%, SSP585), linked to higher CO2 concentrations and expanded high-latitude gains. The ‘emergence’ of climate impacts — when the change signal emerges from the noise — consistently occurs earlier in the new projections for several main producing regions before 2040. While future yield estimates remain uncertain, these results suggest that major breadbasket regions will face distinct anthropogenic climatic risks sooner than previously anticipated.

climate change↗

NASA NTRS2010

Ares I-X: First Flight of a New Generation

The Ares I-X suborbital development flight test demonstrated NASA s ability to design, develop, launch and control a new human-rated launch vehicle (Figure 14). This hands-on missions experience will provide the agency with necessary skills and insights regardless of the future direction of space exploration. The Ares I-X team, having executed a successful launch, will now focus on analyzing the flight data and extracting lessons learned that will be used to support the development of future vehicles.

Davis, Stephan R.↗

DOE OSTI2023

New Generation Resources: Advanced Reactors, Fusion, Hydrogen

Decarbonization of the global economy in the near term necessarily focuses on current energy options for industrial and consumer applications. In addition, new carbon-free energy resources with higher power density are essential for a full energy transition and continued energy evolution (Smil 2021). In this article we examine opportunities and challenges to be addressed for advanced nuclear, hydrogen, and fusion energy.

McCarthy, Kathryn A.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Climate impacts on global agriculture emerge earlier in new generation of climate and crop models

Potential climate-related impacts on future crop yield are a major societal concern. Previous projections of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project’s Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 identified substantial climate impacts on all major crops, but associated uncertainties were substantial. Here we report new twenty-first-century projections using ensembles of latest-generation crop and climate models. Results suggest markedly more pessimistic yield responses for maize, soybean and rice compared to the original ensemble. Mean end-of-century maize productivity is shifted from +5% to -6% (SSP126) and from +1% to -24% (SSP585)—explained by warmer climate projections and improved crop model sensitivities. In contrast, wheat shows stronger gains (+9% shifted to +18%, SSP585), linked to higher CO2 concentrations and expanded high-latitude gains. The ‘emergence’ of climate impacts consistently occurs earlier in the new projections—before 2040 for several main producing regions. While future yield estimates remain uncertain, these results suggest that major breadbasket regions will face distinct anthropogenic climatic risks sooner than previously anticipated.

Jagermeyr, Jonas↗

NASA NTRS2021

Climate Impacts on Global Agriculture Emerge Earlier in New Generation of Climate and Crop Models

Potential climate-related impacts on future crop yield are a major societal concern. Previous projections of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project’s Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 identified substantial climate impacts on all major crops, but associated uncertainties were substantial. Here we report new twenty-first-century projections using ensembles of latest-generation crop and climate models. Results suggest markedly more pessimistic yield responses for maize, soybean and rice compared to the original ensemble. Mean end-of-century maize productivity is shifted from +5% to −6% (SSP126) and from +1% to −24% (SSP585)—explained by warmer climate projections and improved crop model sensitivities. In contrast, wheat shows stronger gains (+9% shifted to +18%, SSP585), linked to higher CO 2 concentrations and expanded high-latitude gains. The ‘emergence’ of climate impacts consistently occurs earlier in the new projections—before 2040 for several main producing regions. While future yield estimates remain uncertain, these results suggest that major breadbasket regions will face distinct anthropogenic climatic risks sooner than previously anticipated.

crop model↗

DOE OSTI2023

Ga 4 C-family crystals, a new generation of star thermoelectric materials, achieved by band degeneracies, valley anisotropy, and strong phonon scattering among others

Using density functional theory combined with the Boltzmann transport equation, we uncover a new class of high-performance thermoelectric materials, i.e., supertetrahedral Ga 4 C-family materials characterized by an ultrahigh thermoelectric figure of merit (ZT), which is produced both by a large power factor and ultralow lattice thermal conductivity. The former is contributed by multiple electronic band degeneracies, flat bands and valley anisotropy, while the latter is contributed both by strong phonon scattering and low phonon group velocity. Furthermore, we find that tensile strain engineering may further suppress lattice thermal conductivity, while well retaining the multi-band degeneracies, valley anisotropy and flat bands. In addition to the band degeneracy, the scattering mechanism of the system can also dominate the power factor in the process of strain implementation. Consequently, a novel thermoelectric phenomenon, i.e., a high thermoelectric figure of merit, is observed in Ca 4 C with a ZT value larger than 4.4 under a small strain ratio (0.75%). In conclusion, our theoretical studies not only uncover a new class of high-performance thermoelectric materials integrating multiple effective mechanisms, but also establish a realistic material plateau to investigate the competitive effect of multiple factors on enhancing the thermoelectric figure of merit.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRS1993

SCOS2: ESA's new generation of mission control systems

The paper describes the next generation Spacecraft Control System infrastructure (SCOSII) which is being developed at the Operations Centre (ESOC) of the European Space Agency (ESA). The objectives of the new system and selected areas of the proposed hardware and software approach are described.

Kaufeler, J. F.↗

NASA NTRS2000

A New Generation of Telecommunications for Mars: The Reconfigurable Software Radio

Telecommunications is a critical component for any mission at Mars as it is an enabling function that provides connectivity back to Earth and provides a means for conducting science. New developments in telecommunications, specifically in software - configurable radios, expand the possible approaches for science missions at Mars. These radios provide a flexible and re-configurable platform that can evolve with the mission and that provide an integrated approach to communications and science data processing. Deep space telecommunication faces challenges not normally faced by terrestrial and near-earth communications. Radiation, thermal, highly constrained mass, volume, packaging and reliability all are significant issues. Additionally, once the spacecraft leaves earth, there is no way to go out and upgrade or replace radio components. The reconfigurable software radio is an effort to provide not only a product that is immediately usable in the harsh space environment but also to develop a radio that will stay current as the years pass and technologies evolve.

Adams, J.↗

NASA NTRS1994

SCOSII: ESA's new generation of mission control systems: The user's perspective

In 1974 ESOC decided to develop a reusable Mission Control System infrastructure for ESA's missions operated under its responsibility. This triggered a long and successful product development line, which started with the Multi Mission Support System (MSSS) which entered in service in 1977 and is still being used today by the MARECS and ECS missions; it was followed in 1989 by a second generation of systems known as SCOS-I, which was/is used by the Hipparcos, ERS-1 and EURECA missions and will continue to support all future ESCO controlled missions until approximately 1995. In the meantime the increasing complexity of future missions together with the emergence of new hardware and software technologies have led ESOC to go for the development of a third generation of control systems, SCOSII, which will support their future missions up to at least the middle of the next decade. The objective of the paper is to present the characteristics of the SCOSII system from the perspective of the mission control team; i.e. it will concentrate on the improvements and advances in the performance, functionality and work efficiency of the system.

Kaufeler, P.↗

NASA NTRS1997

The 1997 HST Calibration Workshop with a New Generation of Instruments

The Second Servicing mission in early 1997 has brought major changes to the Hubble Space Telescope (HST). Two of the original instruments, Faint Object Spectrograph (FOS) and Goddard High Resolution Spectrograph (GHRS), were taken out, and replaced by completely new instruments, the Space Telescope Imaging Spectrograph (STIS) and the Near Infrared Camera Multi-Object Spectrograph (NICMOS). Two new types of detectors were installed, and for the first time, HST gained infrared capabilities. A new Fine Guidance Sensor (FGS) was installed, with an alignment mechanism that could improve substantially both guiding and astrometric capabilities. With all these changes come new challenges. The characterization of the new instruments has required a major effort, both by their respective Investigation Definition Teams and at the Space Telescope Science Institute. All necessary final calibrations for the retired spectrographs needed to be carried out, and their properties definitively characterized. At the same time, work has continued to improve our understanding of the instruments that have remained on board. The results of these activities were discussed in the 1997 HST (Hubble Space Telescope) Calibration Workshop. The main focus of the Workshop was to provide users with the tools and the understanding they need to use HST's instruments and archival data to the best of their possibilities. This book contains the written record of the Workshop. As such, it should provide a valuable tool to all interested in using existing HST data or in proposing for new observations.

Casertano, S.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Interstellar PAH in the Laboratory and in Space. What have we Learned from the New Generation of Laboratory and Observational Studies?

Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) are an important and ubiquitous component of carbon-bearing materials in space. PAHs are the best-known candidates to account for the IR emission bands (UIR bands) and PAH spectral features are now being used as new probes of the ISM. PAHs are also thought to be among the carriers of the diffuse interstellar absorption bands (DIBs). In the model dealing with the interstellar spectral features, PAHs are present as a mixture of radicals, ions and neutral species. PAH ionization states reflect the ionization balance of the medium while PAH size, composition, and structure reflect the energetic and chemical history of the medium. A major challenge for laboratory astrophysics is to reproduce (in a realistic way) the physical conditions that exist in the emission and/or absorption interstellar zones. An extensive laboratory program has been developed at NASA Ames to assess the physical and chemical properties of PAHs in such environments and to describe how they influence the radiation and energy balance in space and the interstellar chemistry. In particular, laboratory experiments provide measurements of the spectral characteristics of interstellar PAH analogs from the ultraviolet and visible range to the infrared range for comparison with astronomical data. This paper will focus on the recent progress made in the laboratory to measure the direct absorption spectra of neutral and ionized PAHs in the gas phase in the near-UV and visible range in astrophysically relevant environments. These measurements provide data on PAHs and nanometer-sized particles that can now be directly compared to astronomical observations. The harsh physical conditions of the IS medium - characterized by a low temperature, an absence of collisions and strong VUV radiation fields - are simulated in the laboratory by associating a molecular beam with an ionizing discharge to generate a cold plasma expansion. PAH ions are formed from the neutral precursors in an isolated environment at low temperature (of the order of 100 K). The spectra of neutral and ionized PAHs are measured using the high sensitivity methods of cavity ring down spectroscopy (CRDS). These experiments provide unique information on the spectra of free, cold large carbon molecules and ions in the gas phase. Intrinsic band profiles and band positions of cold gas-phase PAHs can now be measured with high-sensitivity spectroscopy and directly compared to the astronomical data. The electronic bands measured for ionized PAH are found to be intrinsically broad (about 20 cm(sup -1)) while the bands associated with the neutral precursors are narrower (of the order of 2 - 10 cm(sup -1)). The laboratory data are discussed and compared with recent astronomical spectra of large and narrow DIBs and with the spectra of circumstellar environments of selected carbon stars and the implications for the interstellar PAH population are derived. Preliminary results also show that carbon nanoparticles are formed during the short residence time of the precursors in the plasma.

Salama, Farid↗

NASA NTRS2005

PAHs and the Diffuse Interstellar Bands. What have we Learned from the New Generation of Laboratory and Observational Studies?

Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) are an important and ubiquitous component of carbon-bearing materials in space. PAHs are the best-known candidates to account for the IR emission bands (UIR bands) and PAH spectral features are now being used as new probes of the ISM. PAHs are also thought to be among the carriers of the diffuse interstellar absorption bands (DIBs). In the model dealing with the interstellar spectral features, PAHs are present as a mixture of radicals, ions and neutral species. PAH ionization states reflect the ionization balance of the medium while PAH size, composition, and structure reflect the energetic and chemical history of the medium. A major challenge for laboratory astrophysics is to reproduce (in a realistic way) the physical conditions that exist in the emission and/or absorption interstellar zones, An extensive laboratory program has been developed at NASA Ames to characterize the physical and chemical properties of PAHs in astrophysical environments and to describe how they influence the radiation and energy balance in space and the interstellar chemistry. In particular, laboratory experiments provide measurements of the spectral characteristics of interstellar PAH analogs from the ultraviolet and visible range to the infrared range for comparison with astronomical data. This paper will focus on the recent progress made in the laboratory to measure the direct absorption spectra of neutral and ionized PAHs in the gas phase in the near-W and visible range in astrophysically relevant environments. These measurements provide data on PAHs and nanometer-sized particles that can now be directly compared to astronomical observations. The harsh physical conditions of the IS medium - characterized by a low temperature, an absence of collisions and strong V W radiation fields - are simulated in the laboratory by associating a molecular beam with an ionizing discharge to generate a cold plasma expansion. PAH ions are formed from the neutral precursors in an isolated environment at low temperature (of the order of 100 K). The spectra of neutral and ionized PAHs are measured using the high sensitivity methods of cavity ring down spectroscopy (CRDS). These experiments provide unique information on the spectra of free, cold large carbon molecules and ions in the gas phase. Intrinsic band profiles and band positions of cold gas-phase PAHs can now be measured with high- sensitivity spectroscopy and directly compared to the astronomical data. The electronic bands measured for ionized PAH are found to be intrinsically broad (about 20/cm) while the bands associated with the neutral precursors are narrower (of the order of 2 - 10/cm).

Salama, Farid↗

NASA NTRS1990

Task reports on developing techniques for scattering by 3D composite structures and to generate new solutions in diffraction theory using higher order boundary conditions

There are two tasks described in this report. First, an extension of a two dimensional formulation is presented for a three dimensional body of revolution. With the introduction of a Fourier expansion of the vector electric and magnetic fields, a coupled two dimensional system is generated and solved via the finite element method. An exact boundary condition is employed to terminate the mesh and the fast fourier transformation is used to evaluate the boundary integrals for low O(n) memory demand when an iterative solution algorithm is used. Second, the diffraction by a material discontinuity in a thick dielectric/ferrite layer is considered by modeling the layer as a distributed current sheet obeying generalized sheet transition conditions (GSTC's).

Volakis, John L.↗

NASA NTRS1995

New generation of plasma-sprayed mullite coatings on silicon carbide

Mullite is promising as a protective coating for silicon-based ceramics in aggressive high-temperature environments. Conventionally plasma-sprayed mullite on SiC tends to crack and debond on thermal cycling. It is shown that this behavior is due to the presence of amorphous mullite in the conventionally sprayed mullite. Heating the SiC substrate during the plasma spraying eliminated the amorphous phase and produced coatings with dramatically improved properties. The new coating exhibits excellent adherence and crack resistance under thermal cycling between room temperature and 1000 to 1400 C. Preliminary tests showed good resistance to Na2CO3-induced hot corrosion.

Lee, Kang N.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Involving the new generations in Fermilab endeavors

Since 1984 the Italian groups of the Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare (INFN) and Italian Universities, collaborating with the DOE laboratory of Fermilab (US) have been running a two-month summer training program for Italian university students. While in the first year the program involved only four physics students of the University of Pisa, in the following years it was extended to engineering students. This extension was very successful and the engineering students have been since then extremely well accepted by the Fermilab Technical, Accelerator, and Scientific Computing Division groups. Over the many years of its existence, this program has proven to be the most effective way to engage new students in Fermilab endeavors. Many students have extended their collaboration with Fermilab with their Master’s Thesis and PhD. Since 2004 the program has been supported in part by DOE in the frame of an exchange agreement with INFN. Over its almost 40 years of history, the program has grown in scope and size and has involved more than 550 Italian students from more than 20 Italian Universities, Several Institutes of Research, including ASI and INAF in Italy, and the ISSNAF Foundation in the US, have provided additional financial support. Since the program does not exclude appropriately selected non-Italian students, a handful of students from European and non-European Universities were also accepted over the years. Each intern is supervised by a Fermilab Mentor responsible for performing the training program. Training programs spanned from Tevatron, CMS, Muon (g-2), Mu2e, and Short Baseline Neutrino Experiments and DUNE design and experimental data analysis, development of particle detectors (silicon trackers, calorimeters, drift chambers, neutrino and dark matter detectors), design of electronic and accelerator components, development of infrastructures and software for exascale data handling, research on superconductive elements and on accelerating cavities, and theory of particle accelerators. Since 2010, within an extended program supported by the Italian Space Agency and the Italian National Institute of Astrophysics, a total of 30 students in physics, astrophysics, and engineering have been hosted for two months in the summer at US space science Research Institutes and laboratories. In 2015 the University of Pisa included these programs within its educational programs. Accordingly, Summer School students are enrolled at the University of Pisa for the duration of the internship and are identified and ensured as such. At the end of the internship, the students are required to write summary reports on their achievements. After positive evaluation by a University Examining Board, interns are acknowledged credits for their Diploma Supplement. The program was canceled in 2020 and 2021 due to the pandemic but restarted successfully in 2022. We believe this program can be taken as a model and easily adopted by interested institutions.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

NASA NTRS2019

Earth Observations from a New Generation of Geostationary Satellites

The latest generation of geostationary satellites carry sensors such as the Advanced Baseline Imager (GOES-16/17) and the Advanced Himawari Imager (Himawari-8/9) that closely mimic the spatial and spectral characteristics of widely used polar orbiting sensors such as EOS/MODIS. More importantly, they provide observations at 1-5-15 minute intervals, instead of twice a day from MODIS, offering unprecedented opportunities for monitoring large parts of the Earth. In addition to serving the needs of weather forecasting, these observations offer new and exciting opportunities in managing solar power, fighting wildfires, and tracking air pollution. Creation of actionable information in near real-time from these data streams is a challenge that is best addressed through collaborative efforts among the industry, academia and government agencies.

Nemani, Ramakrishna R.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Earth Observations from a New Generation of Geostationary Satellites

Nemani, Ramakrishna R.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Towards a new generation long trace profiler LTP-2020: optical design of pencil beam interferometry sensor

Improvements in the quality of synchrotron beamline x-ray optics required for next-generation light sources (e.g. the ALS Upgrade project) drive the need to improve the performance of the metrology instrumentation used to measure these components. The Long Trace Profiler (LTP) that is in use at many synchrotron metrology laboratories around the world has some known issues that affect the accuracy of its measurements. The main error source is optical path difference (OPD) phase error introduced into the probe beam by inhomogeneities in the glass components used in the optical head. We have developed a new optical head design, LTP-2020, that replaces the cube polarizing beamsplitter (PBS) with a thin wedge plate polarizing beamsplitter (WPBS) and replaces the cemented doublet lens with an aspheric singlet. Both of these components significantly reduce the glass volume traversed by the laser probe beam. Careful attention to ghost ray interference produced by back reflection from optical surfaces is necessary to minimize distortion in the primary image that translates into systematic error in the slope angle measurement. We make extensive use of a commercial raytracing program to model the back reflections and adjust component parameters as necessary to minimize distortion. Deliberate misalignment of components is necessary to make the system perform correctly. Stringent requirements are placed on the 45◦ incidence coatings on the WPBS and on the normal incidence coatings on the lens and camera window elements. We encourage our colleagues who wish to upgrade their current LTP systems to join us in the procurement of these custom optical components.

Takacs, Peter Z.↗