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Results for “optimization under uncertainty”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1995

A Case Study of View-Factor Rectification Procedures for Diffuse-Gray Radiation Enclosure Computations

The view factors which are used in diffuse-gray radiation enclosure calculations are often computed by approximate numerical integrations. These approximately calculated view factors will usually not satisfy the important physical constraints of reciprocity and closure. In this paper several view-factor rectification algorithms are reviewed and a rectification algorithm based on a least-squares numerical filtering scheme is proposed with both weighted and unweighted classes. A Monte-Carlo investigation is undertaken to study the propagation of view-factor and surface-area uncertainties into the heat transfer results of the diffuse-gray enclosure calculations. It is found that the weighted least-squares algorithm is vastly superior to the other rectification schemes for the reduction of the heat-flux sensitivities to view-factor uncertainties. In a sample problem, which has proven to be very sensitive to uncertainties in view factor, the heat transfer calculations with weighted least-squares rectified view factors are very good with an original view-factor matrix computed to only one-digit accuracy. All of the algorithms had roughly equivalent effects on the reduction in sensitivity to area uncertainty in this case study.

Robert P Taylor↗
DOE OSTI2026

Digital Twin Based Condition Monitoring of LCC-LCC Inductive Power Transfer Systems

Inductive power transfer (IPT) systems provide a flexible, hands-free charging opportunity to electric vehicles (EV). The resonant network components and the transmitter and receiver coils are often subjected to high voltages or currents. Component aging in the compensation network and coils of resonant IPT systems is detrimental to the reliability and power transfer efficiency of the IPT system. Monitoring the component health of such multi-element complex systems requires robust optimization algorithms. This paper discusses condition monitoring of a resonant IPT system for an EV charger using a digital twin model. A hybrid estimation algorithm based on genetic algorithms and adaptive particle swarm optimization is developed to estimate the parameters of the digital twin model. Simulation results are used to verify the monitoring capabilities of the developed algorithm under various operating conditions of the IPT system.

Weldehawaryat, Lidya Mussie [graduate research ass↗
NASA NTRS2026

Deep RL for Fast Long-Horizon Operations Scheduling on NASA's Carruthers Geocorona Observatory Mission

Spacecraft operations scheduling is a highly constrained, long-horizon combinatorial optimization problem that traditionally relies on heuristics, constraint programming, or manual planning. We present a scalable deep reinforcement learning framework developed and deployed for NASA’s Carruthers Geocorona Observatory mission. Our framework introduces a macro-action abstraction known as activity blocks coupled with dynamic action-masking to navigate the intractably large search space and strictly enforce complex power, thermal, and instrument constraints. The resulting architecture generates globally feasible schedules with overwhelming probability, establishes operational trust, and executes a full training cycle in under six hours, circumventing the need for policy robustness by enabling rapid, on-demand retraining. Further, resulting schedules outperform baseline heuristics in scheduled science quality. The deep reinforcement learning framework was deployed as the default operational scheduler for the Carruthers Geocorona Observatory mission from the outset of the mission, demonstrating that deep reinforcement learning can be trusted for real spacecraft operations under complex, evolving constraints.

Geocorona↗
DOE OSTI2026

Jumpstart Opportunities to Unleash Leadership in Energy Storage (JOULES)

Current-generation Li-ion batteries with cobalt- and nickel-containing cathodes and graphite anodes are approaching performance and cost limits. In this program, 24M Technologies, Inc. (24M) is teaming with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and University of Michigan (UM) to develop low cost and fast charging sodium metal batteries with good low-temperature performance and high energy density, building upon previous work performed under ARPA-E programs. Key achievements include optimization of solid electrolyte and anode current collector, optimized cathode active materials, development of high-performance electrolyte formulations, and integration of these components into full cells. The cell design incorporates (1) an ultra-thick cathode (>9 mAh/cm 2 ) comprising advanced cobalt-free, sodium cathode active material, (2) advanced fast-charging electrolyte (up to 12 mS/cm) developed using machine learning and automated high-throughput screening technology by UM, and (3) ceramic modified separator that enable smooth Na transport and deposition, developed at MIT, enabling a high-energy density anode-free configuration and maximizing the energy density of sodium batteries. The team has successfully combined these approaches to sodium chemistry and paved the way to meeting the fast-charging, high-energy density, and low-cost requirements of next-generation drone, electric vertical take-off and -landing, and electric vehicle batteries. Performance for anode-free sodium cells developed under this program is more powerful than the commercial Li-ion batteries. The final deliverable cell design has achieved over 300 Wh/kg and volumetric energy density above 800 Wh/L (Table 1). Additionally, the team has achieved over (1) a lifetime of 340 cycles, (2) 80% capacity retention at -20 °C (compared 25 °C), and (3) the ability to fast charge to 80% SOC in 20 minutes.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Robust Heat-Flux Sensors for Coal-Fired Boiler Extreme Environments

In this project, robust heat-flux measurement systems were developed. The heat-flux sensors utilize thermoelectric effects to directly transduce the heat-flux inputs to analog electrical voltage signals. They were constructed from dedicated materials that can withstand temperatures of at least 1000°C and maintain adequate performance at these conditions for prolonged periods of time. The proposed approaches took into account numerous considerations, including system cost, sensor head resilience, sensor footprint, data accuracy, response time, and maintenance requirements. Through modern thermoelectric materials design, methodical materials selection and rigorous testing in materials characterization labs and medium-scale fire research facilities, we have demonstrated functioning laboratory prototypes, upon which one could base industrial heat-flux sensing platforms capable of operating in the challenging high-temperature, corrosive environments of the boilers of coal-fired power plants. A distributed sensor array for heat-flux measurements throughout the furnace water-wall, the superheater area and the economizer coils can provide critical data for the power plant control systems to increase efficiency, improve safety and reduce down times. For example, the combined heat-flux sensor/control systems can contribute to the optimization of burner and boiler operations under flexible loads, the optimization of heat-exchange conditions and overall reduction of heat rate and emissions, the prediction of imminent overheating conditions, and the optimization of the soot-blowing protocols.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2021

AI-Batt (Autonomous Identification of Battery Life Models) [SWR 21-36]

Autonomous Identification of Battery Life Models (AI-Batt) AI-Batt is a MATLAB code base for developing lifetime models for batteries from accelerated aging data. The code base provides many functions for processing, visualizing, and modeling battery aging data, making the data processing, exploration, and modeling workflow substantially faster. These tools are tailored for working with battery aging data sets, which usually consist of many separate time-series for each cell, with many test conditions and possible replicates at each condition, which makes it difficult to simply process or visualize the data set. Complex modeling tasks, such as cross-validation, sensitivity analysis, and uncertainty quantification have been implemented to enable thorough statistical investigation of model predictions. Additionally, several machine-learning algorithms are implemented to autonomously identify suitable models via symbolic regression. Data processing functions automatically cast data from the struct data type, which is commonly used to store experimental data, but is not an acceptable input for most algorithms, to the table data type, which can be easily used as input to any optimization algorithm. Also, the data can be separated into time-invariant and time-variant data tables, which is helpful for exploring the data set as well as developing separate models for time-variant and time-invariant aging mechanisms. For example, in aging tests with constant temperature, temperature is a time-invariant experimental condition. Visualization tools enable plotting of data, model fits, and model simulations possible with single-line function calls, empowering data exploration of complex data sets with both time-varying and time-invariant trends. Plots can be automatically generated for the whole data set, or separated by data group (groups of test replicates) or individual data series. Data points or data series can be automatically colored by the value of a variable with a variety of color maps, and model predictions can also be colored by the value of a fit statistic. Comparisons between data sets and the predictions/simulations of different models on the same data set can be easily plotted as well. Distributions of parameter values from bootstrap resampling can be plotted to visualize the reliability of parameter estimation, or determine any correlations between parameters. Modeling tools handle the complex task of creating and parsing symbolic equations for modeling battery lifetime. Equations are parsed to grab relevant data variables, parameter values, or specified sub-models for input into optimization, evaluation, or simulation functions. Models can be optimized locally (one set of parameters for each data series), bi-level (some parameters shared across the data set), or globally (single set of parameters for all data). Functions implementing symbolic regression algorithms help users to discover effective model equations, even in poorly sampled, high-dimensional data.

Smith, Kandler [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NR↗
NASA NTRS2026

Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME) Capability Maturity Levels for Ecosystems Enabling Digital Transformation

Digital engineering (DE) and integrated computational materials engineering (ICME) are widely recognized as critical enablers of faster, more affordable, and more reliable aerospace systems. However, many organizations have struggled to realize the promised return on investment (ROI) from digital initiatives. A primary reason is the absence of a shared, decision-focused framework that distinguishes simple digitization of existing workflows from true digital transformation that fundamentally changes how engineering decisions are made. This paper introduces an ICME capability maturity framework that fills this gap. The framework defines six cumulative ICME capability maturity levels (CMLs), explicitly tied to decision authority, engineering integration, optimization, and uncertainty management across material, process, structure, and performance scales. It is designed to complement established readiness metrics such as technology readiness levels (TRLs), manufacturing readiness levels (MRLs), and integration readiness levels (IRLs), by addressing a missing dimension: the conditions required for model-informed decision authority across scales. A unifying figure and capability table illustrate the six-level ICME Capability Maturity Framework, showing how organizations progress from digitization—with limited or negative ROI—to true digital transformation, where ICME-enabled workflows deliver measurable improvements in decision quality, cycle time, risk reduction, and reuse. The framework is intended for both technical practitioners and executive leadership, providing a common language to assess current state, guide roadmaps, align software ecosystem investments, and set realistic expectations for digital transformation outcomes. A regulatory-relevant statement clarifying the relationship between ICME capability and existing certification frameworks is provided.

ICME↗
DOE OSTI2026

Integral Nuclear Data and Benchmarking Needs for Fusion Energy Systems

Fusion energy systems are currently being designed and optimized using radiation transport codes. To deal with the unique environment inside a fusion-based system, many of these designs incorporate novel materials able to withstand the high radiation fields, ensure adequate cooling and thermal protection, and produce tritium. Validation plays a vital role in building trust in the predictive power of these models and computational methods. Validation of a code consists of modeling documented real-world experiments and comparing the code-predicted response to the measured response. Adequate validation requires measured responses from real-world experiments, also known as integral data, that mimic the system being designed, including materials, impinging radiation, and temperature, among other variables. The most trusted integral data are experimental responses that have been through a rigorous benchmarking process that develops a recommended computational model and evaluates all experimental uncertainties. Finally, there are a few research groups around the world that have been producing integral data for fusion applications, but a substantial investment is needed to address the unique validation needs of the fusion community.

Fusion↗
DOE OSTI2025

Electronic structure prediction of medium and high entropy alloys across composition space

We propose machine learning (ML) models to predict the electron density — the fundamental unknown of a material’s ground state — across the composition space of concentrated alloys. From this, other physical properties can be inferred, enabling accelerated exploration. A significant challenge is that the number of descriptors and sampled compositions required for accurate prediction grows rapidly with species. To address this, we employ Bayesian Active Learning (AL), which minimizes training data requirements by leveraging uncertainty quantification capabilities of Bayesian Neural Networks. Compared to the strategic tessellation of the composition space, Bayesian-AL reduces the number of training data points by a factor of 2.5 for ternary (SiGeSn) and 1.7 for quaternary (CrFeCoNi) systems. We also introduce easy-to-optimize, body-attached-frame descriptors, which respect physical symmetries while keeping descriptor-vector size nearly constant as alloy complexity increases. Our ML models demonstrate high accuracy and generalizability in predicting both electron density and energy across composition space.

materials science↗
NASA NTRS2026

Incremental Learning for Passive Microwave Precipitation Retrievals using Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder

Spaceborne passive microwave (PMW) radiometry is central to global precipitation monitoring, yet retrieval uncertainties remain substantial, particularly for cross-track sounders whose variable footprints and channel configurations are optimized for atmospheric temperature and moisture profiling rather than precipitation. Consequently, existing operational products often exhibit angular-dependent biases, limited effective swath utilization, unrealistic rainfall probability distributions, and systematic misclassification of precipitation phase. These limitations are further compounded by the scarcity of globally accurate and representative precipitation observations, as training data from the Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) and the Cloud Profiling Radar (CPR) are spatially sparse, lack uniform global coverage, and exhibit heterogeneous error characteristics across precipitation regimes. To address these challenges, this study presents a supervised retrieval algorithm that incrementally trains an ensemble of extreme gradient-boosted decision trees by augmenting base learners with pre-training on reanalysis data and post-training on coincident DPR and CPR observations matched with the Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS). By transferring prior information from reanalysis to posterior constraints from radar observations and adopting a sequential detection–estimation strategy for precipitation phase and rate retrieval, the proposed approach yields retrievals across the full ATMS swath that are largely free from persistent deficiencies in current Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) passive microwave operational products. In particular, the method resolves bimodal artifacts in rainfall retrievals and mitigates systematic high-latitude snowfall biases, including overestimation across the Arctic and underestimation across the Antarctic. Validation against independent Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) data over the Contiguous United States (CONUS) further demonstrates improved performance in precipitation phase detection and rate estimation relative to both reanalysis and current GPM PMW products.

Mahyar Garshasbi↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Power Optimal Control Allocation for Distributed Electric Propulsion in a Series/Parallel Hybrid Powertrain

This paper describes a thrust allocation scheme that minimizes power consumption in an electrified powertrain with Distributed Electric Propulsion. It takes advantage of an observation about component efficiency maps, that efficiency is often highest at high torque/high speed conditions. This optimal approach is demonstrated to satisfy total thrust and net yaw axis torque requirements, making it suitable for utilizing differential thrust for maneuvering.

electrified aircraft propulsion↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Power Optimal Control Allocation for Distributed Electric Propulsion in a Series/Parallel Hybrid Powertrain

This paper describes a thrust allocation scheme that minimizes power consumption in an electrified powertrain with Distributed Electric Propulsion. It takes advantage of an observation about component efficiency maps, that efficiency is often highest at high torque/high speed conditions. This optimal approach is demonstrated to satisfy total thrust and net yaw axis torque requirements, making it suitable for utilizing differential thrust for maneuvering.

electrified aircraft propulsion↗
NASA NTRS2026

Power Optimal Control Allocation for Distributed Electric Propulsion in a Series/Parallel Hybrid Powertrain

This paper describes a thrust allocation scheme that minimizes power consumption in an electrified powertrain with Distributed Electric Propulsion. It takes advantage of an observation about component efficiency maps, that efficiency is often highest at high torque/high speed conditions. This optimal approach is demonstrated to satisfy total thrust and net yaw axis torque requirements, making it suitable for utilizing differential thrust for maneuvering.

electrified aircraft propulsion↗
NASA NTRS1994

Crystal Growth of Selected II-VI Semiconducting Alloys By Directional Solidification

A Hg 0.84 Zn 0.16 Te alloy crystal was back-melted and partially resolidified during the first United States Microgravity Laboratory (USML-1) mission in the Marshall Space Flight Center's Crystal Growth Furnace. The experiment was inadvertently terminated at about 30% of planned completion. Nonetheless, it was successfully demonstrated that HgZnTe alloy ingots partially grown and quenched on the ground can be back-melted and regrown in space under nearly steady state growth conditions. An identical 'ground-truth' experiment was performed following the mission. Preliminary results are presented for both crystals, as well as for a series of other crystals grown prior to the mission for the purposes of optimizing in-flight growth conditions.

S L Lehoczky↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Turbomachinery Simulation Impact on Design, Understanding, and Optimization

This presentation shows the impact of Turbomachinery Simulation from simple analytical simulation to high fidelity CFD and Finite Element Analysis on the design of turbomachinery and the understanding of flow physics that is then used to improve design approaches. The impact of Optimization is also presented. The best approach for the tool development is to work with a compressor, fan, or turbine designer or to work on the design process directly. The presentation represents the work and impact of the author over his 45-year career and provides insight for both new and experienced engineers. The presentation explores applications of distortion from a downstream fan frame, the first uses of 3D CFD for fan, compressor and turbine design, and approaches to optimization for performance and structures.

optimization↗
NASA NTRS1965

Computation of Optimal Interplanetary Low-Thrust Trajectories With Bounded Thrust Magnitude By Means of the Generalized Newton-Raphson Method

The generalized Newton-Raphson method, an iterative procedure for solving nonlinear operator equations, has been extended in application to variational problems with bounded control variables. A minimum fuel interplanetary low thrust orbital transfer problem is worked out in detail to demonstrate the practical aspects of the algorithm as well as its computational effectiveness. The control variables are the thrust magnitude, limited from zero to some prescribed maximum value, and the thrust steering angle.

Computation↗