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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Two-epoch Orbit Estimation for Wide Binaries Resolved in Hipparcos and Gaia

The Hipparcos catalog and its Double and Multiple System Annex (DMSA) lists 4099 components with individual proper motions and coordinates on the epoch 1991.25. Many of these long-period binary stars are also present in Gaia Data Release 2 (DR2). Using the available relative positions and proper motions separated by 24.25 yr, the equations of relative orbital motion can be solved for the two epoch eccentric anomalies, orbital period, and eccentricity. This method employs elimination of the linear Thiele–Innes unknowns and nonlinear optimization of the remaining condition equations. The quality of these solutions is compromised by the insufficient condition and modest precision of the Hipparcos astrometric data, as revealed by Monte Carlo simulations with artificially perturbed data points. The presence of multiple systems and optical pairs can also perturb the results. Limited experiments with artificial data indicate that useful estimates can be obtained with a 25 yr epoch difference for wide binaries with orbital periods up to ~500 yr. The prospects of this method dramatically improve with the proposed next-generation space astrometry missions such as Gaia-NIR and Theia, especially when additional conditions are included from astrometric or spectroscopic measurements. An ancillary catalog of cross-identification and astrometric information for 1295 double-star pairs cross-matched in Gaia DR2 and Hipparcos is also published.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Runaway Eccentricity Growth: A Pathway for Binary Black Hole Mergers in AGN Disks

Binary black holes (BBHs) embedded within the accretion disks that fuel active galactic nuclei (AGN) are promising progenitors for the source of gravitational wave (GW) events detected by LIGO/VIRGO. Several recent studies have shown that when these binaries form, they are likely to be highly eccentric and retrograde. However, many uncertainties remain concerning the orbital evolution of these binaries as they either inspiral toward merger or disassociate. Previous hydrodynamical simulations exploring their orbital evolution have been predominantly two-dimensional or have been restricted to binaries on nearly circular orbits. We present the first high-resolution, three-dimensional local shearing-box simulations of both prograde and retrograde eccentric BBHs embedded in AGN disks. We find that retrograde binaries shrink several times faster than their prograde counterparts and exhibit significant orbital eccentricity growth, the rate of which monotonically increases with binary eccentricity. Our results suggest that retrograde binaries may experience runaway orbital eccentricity growth, which may bring them close enough together at pericenter for GW emission to drive them to coalescence. Although their eccentricity is damped, prograde binaries shrink much faster than their orbital eccentricity decays, suggesting they should remain modestly eccentric as they contract toward merger. Finally, binary precession driven by the AGN disk may dominate over precession induced by the supermassive black hole depending on the binary accretion rate and its location in the AGN disk, which can subdue the evection resonance and von Ziepel–Lidov–Kozai cycles.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Lyapunov and Clearing Timescales in Planetary Chaotic Zones

Debris disks in planetary systems are known to possess gaps “opened” by planets in their close-to-coorbital neighborhoods; the gaps are free from low-mass material such as planetesimals. We consider the escape process of the initially zero-eccentric particles from the gap zone in a scenario consisting of two basic consequent stages: (1) the particle orbit's eccentricity is inflated, while its specific energy is relatively constant, and (2) the particle orbit's semimajor axis is inflated, while its specific angular momentum is relatively constant. During the first stage, the chaotic transport (diffusion) proceeds along the “staircase” of (p + 1):p (with integer p ≫ 1) overlapping particle–planet resonances, and during the second stage, it proceeds along the p:1 particle–planet resonance staircase. A specialized two-dimensional area-preserving map (a “tokamap” version) is derived to describe the first stage, while a multiharmonic Kepler map theory is used to describe the second stage. We derive the μ (mass parameter) scaling for the clearing timescale in the planetary chaotic zone. At small μ, it turns out to be inverse-quadratic in μ. The μ scaling for the Lyapunov timescale inside the gap is also derived. The derived scalings are in qualitative agreement with available numerical-experimental data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Milky Way’s middle-aged inner ring

Aims. We investigate the metallicity, age, and orbital anatomy of the inner Milky Way, specifically focussing on the outer bar region. Methods. We integrated a sample of APOGEE DR16 inner Galaxy stars in a state of the art bar-bulge potential with a slow pattern speed and investigated the link between the resulting orbits and their [Fe/H] and ages. By superimposing the orbits, we built density, [Fe/H], and age maps of the inner Milky Way, which we divided further using the orbital parameters eccentricity, |Xmax|, and |Zmax|. Results. We find that at low heights from the Galactic plane, the Galactic bar gradually transitions into a radially thick, vertically thin, elongated inner ring with average solar [Fe/H]. This inner ring is mainly composed of stars with AstroNN ages between 4 and 9 Gyr with a peak in age between 6 and 8 Gyr, making the average age of the ring ~6 Gyr. The vertical thickness of the ring decreases markedly towards younger ages. We also find very large L4 Lagrange orbits that have average solar to super-solar metallicities and intermediate ages. Lastly, we confirm a clear X-shape in the [Fe/H] and density distributions at large Galactic heights. Conclusions. The orbital structure obtained for the APOGEE stars reveals that the Milky Way hosts an inner ring-like structure between the planar bar and corotation. This structure is on average metal rich, intermediately aged, and enhances the horizontal metallicity gradient along the bar’s major axis.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Primeval very low-mass stars and brown dwarfs – VIII. The first age benchmark L subdwarf, a wide companion to a halo white dwarf

ABSTRACT We report the discovery of five white dwarf + ultracool dwarf systems identified as common proper motion wide binaries in the Gaia Catalogue of Nearby Stars. The discoveries include a white dwarf + L subdwarf binary, VVV 1256−62AB, a gravitationally bound system located 75.6$^{+1.9}_{-1.8}$ pc away with a projected separation of 1375$^{+35}_{-33}$ au. The primary is a cool DC white dwarf with a hydrogen dominated atmosphere, and has a total age of $10.5^{+3.3}_{-2.1}$ Gyr, based on white dwarf model fitting. The secondary is an L subdwarf with a metallicity of [M/H] = $-0.72^{+0.08}_{-0.10}$ (i.e. [Fe/H] = $-0.81\pm 0.10$) and $T_{\rm eff}$ = 2298$^{+45}_{-43}$ K based on atmospheric model fitting of its optical to near infrared spectrum, and likely has a mass just above the stellar/substellar boundary. The subsolar metallicity of the L subdwarf and the system’s total space velocity of 406 km s−1 indicates membership in the Galactic halo, and it has a flat eccentric Galactic orbit passing within 1 kpc of the centre of the Milky Way every $\sim$0.4 Gyr and extending to 15–31 kpc at apogal. VVV 1256−62B is the first L subdwarf to have a well-constrained age, making it an ideal benchmark of metal-poor ultracool dwarf atmospheres and evolution.

Zhang, Z. H. (ORCID:000000033047607X)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Sifting for a Stream: The Morphology of the $300S$ Stellar Stream

Stellar streams are sensitive laboratories for understanding the small-scale structure in our Galaxy’s gravitational field. Here, we analyze the morphology of the $300S$ stellar stream, which has an eccentric, retrograde orbit and thus could be an especially powerful probe of both baryonic and dark substructures within the Milky Way. Due to extensive background contamination from the Sagittarius stream (Sgr), we perform an analysis combining Dark Energy Camera Legacy Survey photometry, $Gaia$ DR3 proper motions, and spectroscopy from the Southern Stellar Stream Spectroscopic Survey (S 5 ). We redetermine the stream coordinate system and distance gradient, then apply two approaches to describe $300S$ ’s morphology. In the first, we analyze stars from $Gaia$ using proper motions to remove Sgr. In the second, we generate a simultaneous model of $300S$ and Sgr based purely on photometric information. Both approaches agree within their respective domains and describe the stream over a region spanning 33° . Overall, $300S$ has three well-defined density peaks and smooth variations in stream width. Furthermore, $300S$ has a possible gap of ~4.7 and a kink. Dynamical modeling of the kink implies that $300S$ was dramatically influenced by the Large Magellanic Cloud. This is the first model of $300S$ ’s morphology across its entire known footprint, opening the door for deeper analysis to constrain the structures of the Milky Way.

Milky Way galaxy↗
DOE OSTI2023

Hydrodynamical Simulations of Black Hole Binary Formation in AGN Disks

Abstract We study close encounters between two single black holes (BHs) embedded in an AGN disk using a series of global 2D hydrodynamics simulations. We find that when the disk density is sufficiently high, bound BH binaries can be formed by the collision of their circum-single disks. Our analysis demonstrates that, after a BH pair passes the pericenter of their relative trajectory, post-collision gas drag may slow down the BHs, possibly forcing the two BHs to stay tightly bound. A binary formed by a close encounter can have a compact semimajor axis, large eccentricity, and retrograde orbital angular momentum. We provide a fitting formula that can accurately predict whether a close encounter can form a binary based on the gas mass and the incoming energy of the encounter. This fitting formula can be easily implemented in other long-term simulations that study the dynamical evolution of BHs in active galactic nucleus disks.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

TOI–757 b: an eccentric transiting mini–Neptune on a 17.5–d orbit

ABSTRACT We report the spectroscopic confirmation and fundamental properties of TOI$-$757 b, a mini$-$Neptune on a 17.5$-$d orbit transiting a bright star ($V\, =\, 9.7$ mag) discovered by the TESS mission. We acquired high$-$precision radial velocity measurements with the HARPS, ESPRESSO, and PFS spectrographs to confirm the planet detection and determine its mass. We also acquired space$-$borne transit photometry with the CHEOPS space telescope to place stronger constraints on the planet radius, supported with ground$-$based LCOGT photometry. WASP and KELT photometry were used to help constrain the stellar rotation period. We also determined the fundamental parameters of the host star. We find that TOI$-$757 b has a radius of $R_{\mathrm{p}} = 2.5 \pm 0.1 R_{\oplus }$ and a mass of $M_{\mathrm{p}} = 10.5^{+2.2}_{-2.1} M_{\oplus }$, implying a bulk density of $\rho _{\text{p}} = 3.6 \pm 0.8$ g cm$^{-3}$. Our internal composition modelling was unable to constrain the composition of TOI$-$757 b, highlighting the importance of atmospheric observations for the system. We also find the planet to be highly eccentric with e = 0.39$^{+0.08}_{-0.07}$, making it one of the very few highly eccentric planets among precisely characterized mini$-$Neptunes. Based on comparisons to other similar eccentric systems, we find a likely scenario for TOI$-$757 b’s formation to be high eccentricity migration due to a distant outer companion. We additionally propose the possibility of a more intrinsic explanation for the high eccentricity due to star$-$star interactions during the earlier epoch of the Galactic disc formation, given the low metallicity and older age of TOI$-$757.

Alqasim, A. (ORCID:0000000151025505)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Constraining the Nature of the PDS 70 Protoplanets with VLTI/GRAVITY

We present K-band interferometric observations of the PDS 70 protoplanets along with their host star using VLTI/GRAVITY. We obtained K-band spectra and 100 μas precision astrometry of both PDS 70 b and c in two epochs, as well as spatially resolving the hot inner disk around the star. Rejecting unstable orbits, we found a nonzero eccentricity for PDS 70 b of 0.17 ± 0.06, a near-circular orbit for PDS 70 c, and an orbital configuration that is consistent with the planets migrating into a 2:1 mean motion resonance. Enforcing dynamical stability, we obtained a 95% upper limit on the mass of PDS 70 b of 10 M {sub Jup}, while the mass of PDS 70 c was unconstrained. The GRAVITY K-band spectra rules out pure blackbody models for the photospheres of both planets. Instead, the models with the most support from the data are planetary atmospheres that are dusty, but the nature of the dust is unclear. Any circumplanetary dust around these planets is not well constrained by the planets’ 1–5 μm spectral energy distributions (SEDs) and requires longer wavelength data to probe with SED analysis. However with VLTI/GRAVITY, we made the first observations of a circumplanetary environment with sub-astronomical-unit spatial resolution, placing an upper limit of 0.3 au on the size of a bright disk around PDS 70 b.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Prospects for measuring the time variation of astrophysical neutrino sources at dark matter detectors

We study the prospects for measuring the time variation of solar and atmospheric neutrino fluxes at future large-scale xenon and argon dark matter detectors. For solar neutrinos, a yearly time variation arises from the eccentricity of Earth’s orbit and, for charged current interactions, from a smaller energy-dependent day-night variation due to flavor regeneration as neutrinos travel through Earth. For a 100-ton xenon detector running for ten years with a xenon-136 fraction of ≲ 0.1 % , in the electron recoil channel a time-variation amplitude of about 0.8% is detectable with a power of 90% and the level of significance of 10%. This is sufficient to detect time variation due to eccentricity, which has amplitude of ∼ 3 % . In the nuclear recoil channel, the detectable amplitude is about 10% under current detector resolution and efficiency conditions, and this generally reduces to about 1% for improved detector resolution and efficiency, the latter of which is sufficient to detect time variation due to eccentricity. Our analysis assumes both known and unknown periods. We provide scalings to determine the sensitivity to an arbitrary time-varying amplitude as a function of detector parameters. Identifying the time variation of the neutrino fluxes will be important for distinguishing neutrinos from dark matter signals and other detector-related backgrounds and extracting properties of neutrinos that can be uniquely studied in dark matter experiments. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Zhuang, Yi (ORCID:0000000277138724)↗
DOE OSTI2020

EXPRES. I. HD 3651 as an Ideal RV Benchmark

The next generation of exoplanet-hunting spectrographs should deliver up to an order of magnitude improvement in radial velocity (RV) precision over the standard 1 m s{sup −1} state-of-the-art spectrographs. This advance is critical for enabling the detection of Earth-mass planets around Sun-like stars. New calibration techniques such as laser frequency combs and stabilized etalons ensure that the instrumental stability is well characterized. However, additional sources of error include stellar noise, undetected short-period planets, and telluric contamination. To understand and ultimately mitigate error sources, the contributing terms in the error budget must be isolated to the greatest extent possible. Here, we introduce a new high-cadence RV program, the Extreme Precision Spectrograph (EXPRES) 100 Earths Survey, which aims to identify rocky planets around bright, nearby G and K dwarfs. We also present a benchmark case: the 62 day orbit of a Saturn-mass planet orbiting the chromospherically quiet star, HD 3651. The combination of high eccentricity (0.6) and a moderately long orbital period ensures significant dynamical clearing of any inner planets. Our Keplerian model for this planetary orbit has a residual rms of 58 cm s{sup −1} over a ∼6 month time baseline. By eliminating significant contributors to the RV error budget, HD 3651 serves as a standard for evaluating the long-term precision of extreme precision RV programs.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evidence of Nonlinear Seismic Effects in the Earth from Downhole Distributed Acoustic Sensors

Seismic velocities and elastic moduli of rocks are known to vary significantly with applied stress, which indicates that these materials exhibit nonlinear elasticity. Monochromatic waves in nonlinear elastic media are known to generate higher harmonics and combinational frequencies. Such effects have the potential to be used for broadening the frequency band of seismic sources, characterization of the subsurface, and safety monitoring of civil engineering infrastructure. However, knowledge on nonlinear seismic effects is still scarce, which impedes the development of their practical applications. To explore the potential of nonlinear seismology, we performed three experiments: two in the field and one in the laboratory. The first field experiment used two vibroseis sources generating signals with two different monochromatic frequencies. The second field experiment used a surface orbital vibrator with two eccentric motors working at different frequencies. In both experiments, the generated wavefield was recorded in a borehole using a fiber-optic distributed acoustic sensing cable. Both experiments showed combinational frequencies, harmonics, and other intermodulation products of the fundamental frequencies both on the surface and at depth. Laboratory experiments replicated the setup of the field test with vibroseis sources and showed similar nonlinear combinations of fundamental frequencies. Amplitudes of the nonlinear signals observed in the laboratory showed variation with the saturating fluid. These results confirm that nonlinear components of the wavefield propagate as body waves, are likely to generate within rock formations, and can be potentially used for reservoir fluid characterization.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

TOI-1338: TESS’ First Transiting Circumbinary Planet

We report the detection of the first circumbinary planet (CBP) found by Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS). The target, a known eclipsing binary, was observed in sectors 1 through 12 at 30 minute cadence and in sectors 4 through 12 at 2 minute cadence. It consists of two stars with masses of 1.1 M {sub ⊙} and 0.3 M {sub ⊙} on a slightly eccentric (0.16), 14.6 day orbit, producing prominent primary eclipses and shallow secondary eclipses. The planet has a radius of ∼6.9 R {sub ⊕} and was observed to make three transits across the primary star of roughly equal depths (∼0.2%) but different durations—a common signature of transiting CBPs. Its orbit is nearly circular (e ≈ 0.09) with an orbital period of 95.2 days. The orbital planes of the binary and the planet are aligned to within ∼1°. To obtain a complete solution for the system, we combined the TESS photometry with existing ground-based radial-velocity observations in a numerical photometric-dynamical model. The system demonstrates the discovery potential of TESS for CBPs and provides further understanding of the formation and evolution of planets orbiting close binary stars.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Kepler-1661 b: A Neptune-sized Kepler Transiting Circumbinary Planet around a Grazing Eclipsing Binary

We report the discovery of a Neptune-sized (R{sub p}=3.87±0.06R{sub ⊕}) transiting circumbinary planet, Kepler-1661 b, found in the Kepler photometry. The planet has a period of ∼175 days and its orbit precesses with a period of only 35 yr. The precession causes the alignment of the orbital planes to vary, and the planet is in a transiting configuration only ∼7% of the time as seen from Earth. As with several other Kepler circumbinary planets, Kepler-1661 b orbits close to the stability radius, and is near the (hot) edge of the habitable zone. The planet orbits a single-lined, grazing eclipsing binary, containing a 0.84 M{sub ⊙} and 0.26 M{sub ⊙} pair of stars in a mildly eccentric (e = 0.11), 28.2 day orbit. The system is fairly young, with an estimated age of ∼1–3 Gyr, and exhibits significant starspot modulations. The grazing eclipse configuration means the system is very sensitive to changes in the binary inclination, which manifests itself as a change in the eclipse depth. The starspots contaminate the eclipse photometry, but not in the usual way of inducing spurious eclipse timing variations. Rather, the starspots alter the normalization of the light curve, and hence the eclipse depths. This can lead to spurious eclipse depth variations, which are then incorrectly ascribed to binary orbital precession.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Gas and dust dynamics in γ Cephei-type disks

Context. Giant planets are observed orbiting the primary stars of close binary systems. Such planets may have formed in compact circumprimary disks, which once surrounded these stars, under conditions much different than those encountered around single stars. Aims. In order to quantify the effects of the strong gravitational perturbations exerted on circumprimary disk material, the three-dimensional (3D) dynamics of gas and dust in orbit around the primary star of a compact and eccentric binary system was modeled by applying the stellar and orbital parameters of γ Cephei, a well-known system that can be representative of a class of close binaries. Methods. Circumprimary gas was approximated as an Eulerian viscous and compressible fluid and modeled by means of 3D hydrodynamical simulations, assuming locally isothermal conditions in the medium around the primary star. Dust grains were modeled as Lagrangean particles, subjected to gravity and aerodynamic drag forces. Models that include a giant planet were also considered. Results. Models indicate that spiral density waves excited around pericenter passage propagate toward the inner boundary of the disk, through at least a few pressure scale-heights from the mid-plane, inducing radial and vertical mixing in the gas. However, perturbations imparted to gas, both in terms of eccentricity and precession, are far weaker than previously estimated by two-dimensional (2D) simulations. Models predict small eccentricities, ≲0.03, and slow retrograde precession. The addition of a giant planet does not change the low eccentricity state of the disk. The parameters applied to the disk would lead to the formation of a massive planet, many times the mass of Jupiter, in agreement with some observations. Micron to mm-size dust grains are well coupled to the gas, resulting in similar dynamics and statistically similar distributions of orbital elements. The planet only affects the dust distributions locally. In agreement with outcomes of recent 2D models, the lifetime of an isolated circumprimary disk would be brief, ~10 5 years, because of its compact nature, requiring a long-term external supply of mass to allow for the in situ formation of a giant planet.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Dynamical Mass Estimates of the β Pictoris Planetary System through Gaussian Process Stellar Activity Modeling

Nearly 15 yr of radial velocity (RV) monitoring and direct imaging enabled the detection of two giant planets orbiting the young, nearby star β Pictoris. The δ Scuti pulsations of the star, which overwhelm planetary signals, need to be carefully suppressed. In this work, we independently revisit the analysis of the RV data following a different approach than available in the literature to model the activity of the star. We show that a Gaussian process (GP) with a stochastically driven damped harmonic oscillator kernel can model the δ Scuti pulsations. It provides similar results to parametric models but with a simpler framework, using only three hyperparameters. It also enables us to model poorly sampled RV data that were excluded from previous analyses, hence extending the RV baseline by nearly five years. Altogether, the orbit and mass of both planets can be constrained from RV only, which was not possible with the parametric modeling. To characterize the system more accurately, we also perform a joint fit of all available relative astrometry and RV data. Our orbital solutions for β Pic b favor a low eccentricity of 0.029$_{−0.024}^{+0.061}$ and a relatively short period of 21.1$_{−0.8}^{+2.0}$ yr. The orbit of β Pic c is eccentric with 0.206$_{−0.063}^{+0.074}$ with a period of 3.36 ± 0.03 yr. We find model-independent masses of 11.7 ± 1.4 and 8.5 ± 0.5 M Jup for β Pic b and c, respectively, assuming coplanarity. The mass of β Pic b is consistent with the hottest start evolutionary models, at an age of 25 ± 3 Myr. A direct detection of β Pic c would provide a second calibration measurement in a coeval system.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

MJO in Different Orbital Regimes: Role of the Mean State in the MJO’s Amplitude during Boreal Winter

Abstract The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) exhibits pronounced seasonality, with one of the key unanswered questions being the following: what controls the maximum in MJO precipitation variance in the Southern Hemisphere during boreal winter? In this study, we examine a set of global climate model simulations in which the eccentricity and precession of Earth’s orbit are altered to change the boreal winter mean state in an attempt to reveal the processes that are responsible for the MJO’s amplitude in the boreal winter. In response to the forced insolation changes, the north–south asymmetry in sea surface temperature is amplified in boreal fall, which intensifies the Hadley circulation in boreal winter. The stronger Hadley circulation yields higher mean precipitation and stronger mean lower-tropospheric westerlies in the southern part of the Indo-Pacific warm pool. The MJO precipitation variability increases significantly where the mean precipitation and lower-tropospheric westerlies strengthen. In the column-integrated moisture budget of the simulated MJO, only surface latent heat flux feedback shows a trend that is consistent with the MJO’s amplitude, suggesting an important role for the surface latent heat flux feedback in the MJO’s amplitude during the boreal winter. An analysis of the moisture–precipitation relationship in the simulations shows that the increase in the mean precipitation lowers the convective moisture adjustment time scale, leading to the increase in precipitation variance. Our results suggest that the mean-state precipitation plays a critical role in the maintenance mechanism of the MJO.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2020

An Updated Visual Orbit of the Directly Imaged Exoplanet 51 Eridani b and Prospects for a Dynamical Mass Measurement with Gaia

We present a revision to the visual orbit of the young, directly imaged exoplanet 51 Eridani b using four years of observations with the Gemini Planet Imager. The relative astrometry is consistent with an eccentric (e=0.53{sub -0.13}{sup +0.09}) orbit at an intermediate inclination (i=136{sub -11}{sup +10} °), although circular orbits cannot be excluded due to the complex shape of the multidimensional posterior distribution. We find a semimajor axis of 11.1{sub -1.3}{sup +4.2} au and a period of 28.1{sub -4.9}{sup +17.2} yr, assuming a mass of 1.75 M{sub ⊙} for the host star. We find consistent values with a recent analysis of VLT/SPHERE data covering a similar baseline. We investigate the potential of using the absolute astrometry of the host star to obtain a dynamical mass constraint for the planet. The astrometric acceleration of 51 Eri derived from a comparison of the Hipparcos and Gaia catalogs was found to be inconsistent at the 2σ–3σ level with the predicted reflex motion induced by the orbiting planet. Potential sources of this inconsistency include a combination of random and systematic errors between the two astrometric catalogs and the signature of an additional companion within the system interior to current detection limits. We also explored the potential of using Gaia astrometry alone for a dynamical mass measurement of the planet by simulating Gaia measurements of the motion of the photocenter of the system over the course of the extended 8 yr mission. We find that such a measurement is only possible (>98% probability) given the most optimistic predictions for the Gaia scan astrometric uncertainties for bright stars and a high mass for the planet (≳3.6 M {sub Jup}).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗