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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Bayesian sparse learning with preconditioned stochastic gradient MCMC and its applications

Deep neural networks have been successfully employed in an extensive variety of research areas, including solving partial differential equations. Despite its significant success, there are some challenges in effectively training DNN, such as avoiding overfitting in over-parameterized DNNs and accelerating the optimization in DNNs with pathological curvature. Here, we propose a Bayesian type sparse deep learning algorithm. The algorithm utilizes a set of spike-and-slab priors for the parameters in the deep neural network. The hierarchical Bayesian mixture will be trained using an adaptive empirical method. That is, one will alternatively sample from the posterior using preconditioned stochastic gradient Langevin Dynamics (PSGLD), and optimize the latent variables via stochastic approximation. The sparsity of the network is achieved while optimizing the hyperparameters with adaptive searching and penalizing. A popular SG-MCMC approach is Stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics (SGLD). However, considering the complex geometry in the model parameter space in nonconvex learning, updating parameters using a universal step size in each component as in SGLD may cause slow mixing. To address this issue, we apply a computationally manageable preconditioner in the updating rule, which provides a step-size parameter to adapt to local geometric properties. Moreover, by smoothly optimizing the hyperparameter in the preconditioning matrix, our proposed algorithm ensures a decreasing bias, which is introduced by ignoring the correction term in the preconditioned SGLD. According to the existing theoretical framework, we show that the proposed algorithm can asymptotically converge to the correct distribution with a controllable bias under mild conditions. Numerical tests are performed on both synthetic regression problems and learning solutions of elliptic PDE, which demonstrate the accuracy and efficiency of the present work.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

An adaptive Hessian approximated stochastic gradient MCMC method

Bayesian approaches have been successfully integrated into training deep neural networks. One popular family is stochastic gradient Markov chain Monte Carlo methods (SG-MCMC), which have gained increasing interest due to their ability to handle large datasets and the potential to avoid overfitting. Although standard SG-MCMC methods have shown great performance in a variety of problems, they may be inefficient when the random variables in the target posterior densities have scale differences or are highly correlated. Here, we present an adaptive Hessian approximated stochastic gradient MCMC method to incorporate local geometric information while sampling from the posterior. The idea is to apply stochastic approximation (SA) to sequentially update a preconditioning matrix at each iteration. The preconditioner possesses second-order information and can guide the random walk of a sampler efficiently. Instead of computing and saving the full Hessian of the log posterior, we use limited memory of the samples and their stochastic gradients to approximate the inverse Hessian-vector multiplication in the updating formula. Moreover, by smoothly optimizing the preconditioning matrix via SA, our proposed algorithm can asymptotically converge to the target distribution with a controllable bias under mild conditions. To reduce the training and testing computational burden, we adopt a magnitude-based weight pruning method to enforce the sparsity of the network. Our method is user-friendly and demonstrates better learning results compared to standard SG-MCMC updating rules. The approximation of inverse Hessian alleviates storage and computational complexities for large dimensional models. Numerical experiments are performed on several problems, including sampling from 2D correlated distribution, synthetic regression problems, and learning the numerical solutions of heterogeneous elliptic PDE. The numerical results demonstrate great improvement in both the convergence rate and accuracy.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Neural chaos: A spectral stochastic neural operator

Building surrogate models for operators with uncertainty quantification capabilities is essential for many engineering applications where randomness–such as variability in material properties, boundary conditions, and initial conditions–is unavoidable. Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) is widely recognized as a go-to method for constructing stochastic surrogates in both intrusive and non-intrusive ways, and it has recently been used in the context of operator learning. However, its application becomes challenging for complex or high-dimensional processes, as achieving accuracy requires higher-order polynomials, which can increase computational demand and/or the risk of overfitting. Furthermore, PCE requires specialized treatments to manage random variables that are not independent, and these treatments may be problem-dependent or may fail with increasing complexity. Here, in this work, we adopt the same formalism as the spectral expansion used in PCE; however, we replace the classical polynomial basis functions with neural network (NN) basis functions to leverage their expressivity. To achieve this, we propose an algorithm that identifies NN-parameterized basis functions in a purely data-driven manner, without any prior assumptions about the joint distribution of the random variables involved, whether independent or dependent, or about their marginal distributions. The proposed algorithm identifies each NN-parameterized basis function sequentially, ensuring they are orthogonal with respect to the data distribution. The basis functions are constructed directly on the joint stochastic variables without requiring a tensor product structure or assuming independence of the random variables. This approach may offer greater flexibility for complex stochastic models, while simplifying implementation compared to the tensor product structures typically used in PCE to handle random vectors. This is particularly advantageous given the current state of open-source packages, where building and training neural networks can be done with just a few lines of code and extensive community support. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed scheme through several numerical examples of varying complexity and provide comparisons with classical PCE.

Polynomial chaos expansion↗
DOE OSTI2019

Information content of spatially distributed ground-based measurements for hydrologic-parameter calibration in mixed rain-snow mountain headwaters

Parameters in hydrologic models used in mixed rain-snow regions are often uncertain to calibrate and overfitted on streamflow. To contribute addressing these challenges, we used an algorithm that assesses modeling performances through time (Dynamic Identifiability Analysis) to quantify the information content of spatially distributed ground-based measurements for identifying optimal parameter values in the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) model. Including spatially distributed ground-based measurements in Identifiability Analysis allowed us to unambiguously estimate more parameter values than only using streamflow (seven parameters instead of two out of a pool of thirty-three). Peaks in information gain were obtained when using dew-point temperature to identify precipitation phase-partitioning parameters. Multi-attribute identifiability analysis also yielded optimal parameter values that were temporally less variable than those estimated using streamflow alone. Overall, identifying parameter values using ground-based measurements improved the simulation of key drivers of the surface-water budget, such as air temperature and precipitation-phase partitioning. However, parameters simulating surface-to-subsurface mass fluxes like snow accumulation and melt or evapotranspiration were poorly identified by any attribute and so emerged as key sources of predictive uncertainty for this distributed-parameter hydrologic model. In conclusion, this work demonstrates the value of expanded ground-based measurements for identifying parameters in distributed-parameter hydrologic models and so diagnosing their conceptual uncertainty across the water budget.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

A deep learning-based workflow for fast prediction of 3D state variables in geological carbon storage: A dimension reduction approach

Deep learning (DL) models are extensively used as surrogate models for high-fidelity simulations of multiphase fluid flow in porous media at large scales, enabling fast forecasts of the spatial–temporal evolution of three-dimensional (3D) state variables in geological carbon storage (GCS). However, training these models in high-dimensional space remains computationally demanding and prone to overfitting because of limited training data. This paper presents a novel workflow to address these challenges by integrating dimension reduction (DR) methods. Here, the proposed workflow employed pre-trained DR models to extract the latent variables of geological models and state variables and utilized the multi-layer perceptron (MLP) for constructing mapping functions between the input and output variables in latent spaces. Subsequently, the pre-trained reconstruction models converted the MLP-predicted latent state variables to their original high-dimensional form. Furthermore, we proposed a novel strategy for the DR and reconstruction of 3D saturation fields to account for the unique data characteristics of sparsity, nonuniformity, and discontinuity. The proposed strategy applied PCA and inverse PCA for 2D average saturation fields and developed a DL-based 3D reconstruction model, leveraging three 2D average saturation fields as input to produce a 3D saturation field as output. The pre-training of DR and reconstruction models and training of MLP models were conducted on 84 Gulf of Mexico (GoM) simulations and evaluated on 12 testing simulations. Each simulation contained 720 monthly time steps, with the first 360 months as the injection period and the rest as the post-injection period. The proposed workflow, incorporating DR and DL models, accurately predicts the normalized 3D pressure fields, achieving mean square error (MSE) of 2.92 × 10 -7 compared to the ground truth obtained from a full-physics simulator. Furthermore, the proposed strategy outperformed PCA and convolutional autoencoder (CAE) models on 3D saturation fields, resulting in minor workflow prediction errors with an MSE of 2.93 × 10 -5 . The results suggest the proposed workflow provides sufficient predictive fidelity across temporal and spatial scales, and enables a speedup of 160 times compared to the full-physics simulator, facilitating improved decision-making and risk assessment for large-scale GCS management in real-time scenarios.

3D reconstruction model↗
DOE OSTI2022

Generalizability analysis of tool condition monitoring ensemble machine learning models

Tool condition monitoring (TCM) is an essential research area for the optimization and automation of metal machining processes, and could help manufacturers reduce costs, production time, machine downtime, energy use, and part scrappage. However, TCM systems developed in prior studies have struggled to reach the high level of generalizability which is necessary for industrial applications. This study addresses TCM system generalizability to new machining conditions, how variations in machining and environmental conditions may be used to improve model generalizability, and ensemble machine learning techniques for TCM. Further, milling tool life experiments were conducted using various machining conditions, and the processes' sound, spindle power, and axial load signals were collected. Different machine learning models were evaluated for the prediction of tool wear levels, including four individual models and five ensemble models. Changes in cutting speed were found to display a large effect on model performance, while the chip load showed some effect, and the feed rate had little effect. A simulated noise data augmentation technique for model improvement is applied within TCM for the first time, and resulted in increased model generalizability and reduced overfitting. Across several performance metrics the extremely randomized trees ensemble machine learning model generally performed the best for this application, achieving a leave-one-group-out cross validation accuracy score of 92.4 %, a 10-fold cross validation score of 98.9 %, and an averaged accuracy across 11 generalizability tests of 87.3 %.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Polyconvex neural network models of thermoelasticity

Machine-learning function representations such as neural networks have proven to be excellent constructs for constitutive modeling due to their flexibility to represent highly nonlinear data and their ability to incorporate constitutive constraints, which also allows them to generalize well to unseen data. Here, in this work, we extend a polyconvex hyperelastic neural network framework to (isotropic) thermo-hyperelasticity by specifying the thermodynamic and material theoretic requirements for an expansion of the Helmholtz free energy expressed in terms of deformation invariants and temperature. Different formulations which a priori ensure polyconvexity with respect to deformation and concavity with respect to temperature are proposed and discussed. The physics-augmented neural networks are furthermore calibrated with a recently proposed sparsification algorithm that not only aims to fit the training data but also penalizes the number of active parameters, which prevents overfitting in the low data regime and promotes generalization. The performance of the proposed framework is demonstrated on synthetic data, which illustrate the expected thermomechanical phenomena, and existing temperature-dependent uniaxial tension and tension-torsion experimental datasets.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

Encoding nonlinear and unsteady aerodynamics of limit cycle oscillations using nonlinear sparse Bayesian learning

This article investigates the applicability of a recently proposed, nonlinear sparse Bayesian learning (NSBL) algorithm to identify and estimate the complex aerodynamics of limit cycle oscillations. NSBL provides a semi-analytical framework for determining the data-optimal sparse model nested within a (potentially) over-parameterized model. This is particularly relevant to nonlinear dynamical systems where modelling approaches involve the use of physics-based and data-driven components. In such cases, the data-driven components, where analytical descriptions of the physical processes are not readily available, are often prone to overfitting, meaning that the empirical aspects of these models will often involve the calibration of an unnecessarily large number of parameters. While an overparameterized model may fit the observed data well, such models may be inadequate for making predictions in regimes that are different from those wherein the data were recorded. In view of this, it is desirable to not only calibrate the model parameters, but also identify the optimal compromise between data fit and model complexity. In this article, we exhibit the optimal model discovery for an aeroelastic system wherein the structural dynamics are well-known and described by a differential equation model, coupled with a semi-empirical aerodynamic model for laminar separation flutter, resulting in low-amplitude limit cycle oscillations (LCO). To illustrate the performance of the algorithm, in this article, we use synthetic data and demonstrate the ability of the algorithm to correctly rediscover the optimal model and model parameters, given a known data-generating model. The synthetic data are generated from a forward simulation of a known differential equation model with parameters selected so as to mimic the dynamics observed in wind-tunnel experiments. Subsequently, we demonstrate the performance of the algorithm for model selection using noisy LCO data from wind tunnel experiments. As there is no ground truth available for the experimental data case, we provide a comparison between NSBL and Bayesian model selection to validate the results, and demonstrate the use of NSBL as an efficient alternative to traditional methods.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Local modeling for FRF estimation with noisy input measurements

The frequency response function (FRF) is an essential means by which dynamic systems are qualified. In recent years, local modeling approaches have been extensively researched and shown to significantly outperform traditional FRF estimators. However, the standard local modeling approach assumes a perfectly-known system input, which results in biased FRF estimates in the presence of input noise. This paper derives a simple adjustment that can be used to improve FRF estimation for systems subjected to random excitation with noisy input data. This improvement can be implemented with little modification to standard local modeling algorithms and with little additional computational burden. The adjustment is coupled with a model selection procedure to avoid underfitting and overfitting. In conclusion, the methods presented in this paper are validated on a simulation, and they are shown to reduce bias due to input noise.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Generating synthetic signaling networks for in silico modeling studies

Predictive models of signaling pathways have proven to be difficult to develop. Reasons include the uncertainty in the number of species, the complexity in species’ interactions, and the sparseness and uncertainty in experimental data. Traditional approaches to developing mechanistic models rely on collecting experimental data and fitting a single model to that data. This approach works for simple systems but has proven unreliable for complex systems such as biological signaling networks. For example, uncertainty and sparseness of the data often result in overfitted models that have little predictive value beyond recapitulating the experimental data itself. Thus, there is a need to develop new approaches to create predictive mechanistic models of complex systems. However, to determine the effectiveness of any new algorithm, a baseline model is needed to test its performance. To meet this need, we developed a method for generating artificial synthetic networks that are reasonably realistic and thus can be treated as ground truth models. These synthetic models can then be used to generate synthetic data for developing and testing algorithms designed to recover the underlying network topology and associated parameters. Here, we describe a simple approach for generating synthetic signaling networks that can be used for this purpose.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Synergistic learning with multi-task DeepONet for efficient PDE problem solving

Multi-task learning (MTL) is an inductive transfer mechanism designed to leverage useful information from multiple tasks to improve generalization performance compared to single-task learning. It has been extensively explored in traditional machine learning to address issues such as data sparsity and overfitting in neural networks. In this work, we apply MTL to problems in science and engineering governed by partial differential equations (PDEs). However, implementing MTL in this context is complex, as it requires task-specific modifications to accommodate various scenarios representing different physical processes. To this end, we present a multi-task deep operator network (MT-DeepONet) to learn solutions across various functional forms of source terms in a PDE and multiple geometries in a single concurrent training session. We introduce modifications in the branch network of the vanilla DeepONet to account for various functional forms of a parameterized coefficient in a PDE. Additionally, we handle parameterized geometries by introducing a binary mask in the branch network and incorporating it into the loss term to improve convergence and generalization to new geometry tasks. Our approach is demonstrated on three benchmark problems: (1) learning different functional forms of the source term in the Fisher equation; (2) learning multiple geometries in a 2D Darcy Flow problem and showcasing better transfer learning capabilities to new geometries; and (3) learning 3D parameterized geometries for a heat transfer problem and demonstrate the ability to predict on new but similar geometries. Finally, our MT-DeepONet framework offers a novel approach to solving PDE problems in engineering and science under a unified umbrella based on synergistic learning that reduces the overall training cost for neural operators.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Sentiment analysis of the United States public support of nuclear power on social media using large language models

This study utilized large language models (LLMs) to analyze public sentiment in the United States (US) regarding nuclear power on social media, focusing on X/Twitter, considering climate change challenges and advancements in nuclear power technology. Approximately, 1.26 million nuclear tweets from 2008–2023 were examined to fine-tune LLMs for sentiment classification. We found the crucial role of accurate data labeling for model performance, with potential implications for a 15% improvement, achieved through high-confidence labels. LLMs demonstrated better performance compared to traditional machine learning classifiers, with reduced susceptibility to overfitting and up to 96% classification accuracy. LLMs are used to segment the US public tweets into policy and energy-related categories, revealing that 68% are politically themed. Policy tweets tended to convey negative sentiment, often reflecting opposing political perspectives and focusing on nuclear deals and international relations. Energy-related tweets covered diverse topics with predominantly neutral to positive sentiment, indicating broad support for nuclear power in 48 out of 50 US states. The US public positive sentiments toward nuclear power stemmed from its high power density, reliability regardless of weather conditions, environmental benefits, application versatility, and recent innovations and advancements in both fission and fusion technologies. Negative sentiments primarily focused on waste management, high capital costs, and safety concerns. The neutral campaign highlighted global nuclear facts and advancements, with varying tones leaning towards positivity or negativity. An interesting neutral theme was the advocacy for the combined use of renewable and nuclear energy to attain net-zero goals.

Energy & Fuels↗
DOE OSTI2021

Improving Prediction of Surface Solar Irradiance Variability by Integrating Observed Cloud Characteristics and Machine Learning

A 5-year, 1-minute resolution observational dataset of clouds and solar radiation was produced that includes two metrics of the variability in surface solar irradiance due to cloud type and fractional sky cover. Multiple regression models were trained to fit observations of surface solar irradiance variability from those two cloud property predictors. We found that ensemble tree-based methods, Random Forest and Gradient Boosting Machine, have the least overfitting issues and showed the best performance with an R2 of 0.42. While the observational data trained in this study was only from one site, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) site in Oklahoma, initial comparisons of the seasonality of the statistics suggest that these results are relatively weather regime independent; the generality of such a finding across sites will be tested in future work. The observational data and developed machine learning model are being used to create a numerical weather prediction model parameterization to enable day-ahead solar variability prediction in a computationally efficient way. This is a first step towards creating a new paradigm of predicting day-ahead variability with the potential to provide a new tool to improve grid operation, planning, and resilience.

Riihimaki, Laura↗
DOE OSTI2024

A comparative study on deep learning models for condition monitoring of advanced reactor piping systems

Advanced nuclear reactors offer innovative applications due to their portability, reliability, resiliency, and high capacity factors. To operate them on a wider scale, reducing maintenance life-cycle costs while ensuring their integrity is essential. Autonomous operations in advanced nuclear reactors using augmented Digital Twin (DT) technology can serve as a cost-effective solution by increasing awareness about the system’s health. A key component of nuclear DT frameworks is the condition monitoring of safety systems, such as piping-equipment systems, which involves acquiring and monitoring the plant’s sensor data. Here, this research proposes a condition monitoring methodology utilizing deep learning algorithms, such as multilayer perceptions (MLP) and convolutional neural networks (CNNs), to detect degradation and its severity in nuclear piping-equipment systems. Sensor signals are processed to obtain the power spectral density and the Short-Time Fourier transform, and feature extraction methodologies are proposed to develop degradation-sensitive data repositories. The performance of MLP, one-dimensional (1D) CNN, and 2D CNN within the proposed condition monitoring framework is compared using a finite element model of a 3D piping system subjected to seismic loads as the application case study. Various approaches, such as dropout, k-Fold validation, regularization, and early stopping of training the network, are investigated to avoid overfitting the models to the input sensor data. The predictive capability and computational capacity of the deep learning algorithms are also compared to detect degradation in the Z-pipe system of the Experimental Breeder Reactor II (EBRII). The Z-pipe system is subjected to harmonic excitations that represent normal operating loads, such as pump-induced vibrations. The findings of the study indicate that the proposed artificial intelligence (AI)-driven condition monitoring framework demonstrates superior prediction accuracies with a 2D CNN, whereas the MLP exhibits higher computational efficiency.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Deep learning to generate in silico chemical property libraries and candidate molecules for small molecule identification in complex samples

Comprehensive and unambiguous identification of small molecules in complex samples will revolutionize our understanding of the role of metabolites in biological systems. Existing and emerging technologies have enabled measurement of chemical properties of molecules in complex mixtures and, in concert, are sensitive enough to resolve even stereoisomers. Despite these experimental advances, small molecule identification is inhibited by (i) chemical reference libraries (e.g. mass spectra, collision cross section, and other measurable property libraries) representing <1% of known molecules, limiting the number of possible identifications, and (ii) the lack of a method to generate candidate matches directly from experimental features (i.e. without a library). To this end, we developed a variational autoencoder (VAE) to learn a continuous numerical, or latent, representation of molecular structure to expand reference libraries for small molecule identification. We extended the VAE to include a chemical property decoder, trained as a multitask network, in order to shape the latent representation such that it assembles according to desired chemical properties. The approach is unique in its application to metabolomics and small molecule identification, with its focus on properties that can be obtained from experimental measurements (m/z, CCS) paired with its training paradigm, which involved a cascade of transfer learning iterations. First, molecular representation is learned from a large dataset of structures with m/z labels. Next, in silico property values are used to continue training, as experimental property data is limited. Finally, the network is further refined by being trained with the experimental data. This allows the network to learn as much as possible at each stage, enabling success with progressively smaller datasets without overfitting. Once trained, the network can be used to predict chemical properties directly from structure, as well as generate candidate structures with desired chemical properties. Our approach is orders of magnitude faster than first-principles simulation for CCS property prediction. Additionally, the ability to generate novel molecules along manifolds, defined by chemical property analogues, positions DarkChem as highly useful in a number of application areas, including metabolomics and small molecule identification, drug discovery and design, chemical forensics, and beyond.

Colby, Sean M.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Coarse-Grained Density Functional Theory Predictions via Deep Kernel Learning

Scalable electronic predictions are critical for soft materials design. Recently, the Electronic Coarse-Graining (ECG) method was introduced to renormalize all-atom quantum chemical (QC) predictions to coarse-grained (CG) resolutions using deep neural networks (DNNs). While DNNs can learn complex representations that prove challenging for kernel-based methods, they are susceptible to overfitting and the overconfidence of uncertainty estimations. Here, we develop ECG within a GPU-accelerated Deep Kernel Learning (DKL) framework to enable CG QC predictions using range-separated hybrid density functional theory (DFT), obtaining a 107 speedup relative to naive all-atom QC. By treating the predicted electronic properties as random Gaussian Processes, DKL incorporates CG mapping degeneracy by learning the distribution of electronic energies as a function of CG configuration. DKL-ECG accurately reproduces molecular orbital energies from range-separated DFT while facilitating efficient training via active learning using the uncertainties provided by DKL. Further, we show that while active learning algorithms enable efficient sampling of a more diverse configurational space relative to random sampling, all explored query methods exhibit comparable performance for the examined system. We attribute this result to the significant overlap of the feature space and output property distributions across multiple temperatures.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Machine Learning Model for Predicting Composition of Catalytic Coprocessing Products from Molecular Beam Mass Spectra

Demand for the development of an automated and integrated refining process for biofuels has increased in recent years due to the lack of generalized process inspection tools. In bio-oil upgrading processes, all process variables are maintained based on the offline specification of intermediates and products. A lack of real-time product specifications in batch-wise monitoring can cause process failure and wasted resources. Therefore, there is a need for a fast and accurate intermediates/product specification tool that can be used for real-time specification to reduce waste and mitigate the risk of process failure. Here, to address this gap, we developed a machine learning (ML) model for predicting speciated bio-oil composition, including paraffin, iso-paraffins, olefins, naphthene, and aromatics. The model is trained using the mass spectra from upgraded products collected in the vapor phase before condensation and predicts the composition of the condensed product. Training ML models using raw mass spectra is challenging due to numerous overlapped peaks originating from different parent compounds. With this in mind, we propose a protocol that (i) transforms raw mass spectra to chemistry-inspired predefined features and (ii) trains decision tree-based models using these features. Our results show that the random forest model was robust against overfitting and had the highest accuracy compared to other models. Moreover, a stochastic ablation method determined the eight most significant features while maximizing the accuracy. Our protocol facilitates real-time compositional analysis of upgraded bio-oils and thus real-time process monitoring. Additionally, this protocol enables the rational design of efficient catalysts and the determination of optimal process conditions.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Short–Term Forecasting of Wind Gusts at Airports Across CONUS Using Machine Learning

Short–term forecasting of wind gusts, particularly those of higher intensity, is of great societal importance but is challenging due to the presence of multiple gust generation mechanisms. Wind gust observations from eight high–passenger–volume airports across the continental United States (CONUS) are summarized and used to develop predictive models of wind gust occurrence and magnitude. These short–term (same hour) forecast models are built using multiple logistic and linear regression, as well as artificial neural networks (ANNs) of varying complexity. A suite of 19 upper–air predictors drawn from the ERA5 reanalysis and an autoregressive (AR) term are used. Stepwise procedures instruct predictor selection, and resampling is used to quantify model stability. All models are developed separately for the warm (April–September) and cold (October–March) seasons. Results show that ANNs of 3–5 hidden layers (HLs) generally exhibit higher hit rates than logistic regression models and also improve skill with respect to wind gust magnitudes. However, deeper networks with more HLs increase false alarm rates in occurrence models and mean absolute error in magnitude models due to model overfitting. For model skill, inclusion of the AR term is critical while the majority of the remaining skill derives from wind speeds and lapse rates. A predictive ceiling is also clearly demonstrated, particularly for the strong and damaging gust magnitudes, which appears to be partially due to ERA5 predictor characteristics and the presence of mixed wind climates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗