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At least 55 records · Page 3

Mesospheric Dynamical Changes Induced by the Solar Proton Events in October-November 2003

The very large solar storms in October-November 2003 caused solar proton events (SPEs) at the Earth that impacted the upper atmospheric polar cap regions. The Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Electrodynamic General Circulation Model (TIME-GCM) was used to study the atmospheric dynamical influence of the solar protons that occurred in Oct-Nov 2003, the fourth largest period of SPEs measured in the past 40 years. The highly energetic solar protons caused ionization, as well as dissociation processes, and ultimately produced odd hydrogen (HOx) and odd nitrogen (NOy). Significant short-lived ozone decreases (10-70%) followed these enhancements of HOx and NOy and led to a cooling of most of the lower mesosphere. This cooling caused an atmospheric circulation change that led to adiabatic heating of the upper mesosphere. Temperature changes up to plus or minus 2.6 K were computed as well as wind (zonal, meridional, vertical) perturbations up to 20-25% of the background winds as a result of 22 the solar protons. The solar proton-induced mesospheric temperature and wind perturbations diminished over a period of 4-6 weeks after the SPEs. The Joule heating in the mesosphere, induced by the solar protons, was computed to be relatively insignificant for these solar storms with most of the temperature and circulation perturbations caused by ozone depletion in the sunlit hemisphere.

Jackman, Charles H.↗

Ozone Change from 1992 to 1993 as Observed from SSBUV on the ATLAS-1 and ATLAS-2 Missions

The Shuttle SBUV (SSBUV) conducted its fourth and fifth flights in late March 1992 and early April 1993 along with the ATLAS-1 and ATLAS-2 Shuttle missions, respectively. The two successive SSBUV flights yielded ozone data nearly one year apart. An analysis of the meteorological conditions, namely temperature and winds, during the two flight periods indicate that the conditions in the stratosphere were very similar. The temperatures had significantly warmed from winter throughout most of the stratosphere and the circulation was approaching normal summertime conditions for both periods. SSBUV-4, flown in 1992, measured ozone from approximately 30S to 60N while SSBUV-5, flown in 1993, measured ozone from approximately 55S to 60N. Zonal average column ozone amounts were derived from the two flights and compared to determine if a systematic change in ozone could be detected despite the fact that only a few days from each year were sampled. The comparison indicates that in the latitude range 30N to 60N total ozone was lower in 1993 than in 1992 by about 12%. This change is larger than the observational errors and the expected interannual variations. This result verifies similar data taken from ground and satellites.

Hilsenrath, E.↗

Ozone Budgets from a Global Chemistry/ Transport Model and Comparison to Observations from POLARIS

The objective of the Photochemistry of Ozone Loss in the Arctic Region in Summer (POLARIS) field mission was to obtain data to better characterize the summertime seasonal decrease of ozone at mid to high latitudes. The decrease in ozone occurs mainly in the lower stratosphere and is expected to result from in situ chemical destruction. Instrumented balloons and aircraft were used in POLARIS, along with satellites, to measure ozone and chemical species which are involved with stratospheric ozone chemistry. In order to close the seasonal ozone budget, however, ozone transport must also be estimated. Comparison to a global chemistry and transport model (CTM) of the stratosphere indicates how well the summertime ozone loss processes are simulated and thus how well we can predict the ozone response to changing amounts of chemical source gases. Moreover, the model gives insight into the possible relative magnitude of transport contributions to the seasonal ozone decline. Initial comparison to the Goddard CTM, which uses transport winds and temperatures from meteorological data assimilation, shows a high ozone bias in the model and an attenuated summertime ozone loss cycle. Comparison of the model chemical partitioning, and ozone catalytic loss rates to those derived from measurements shows fairly close agreement both at ER-2 altitudes (20 km) and higher. This suggests that the model transport is too active in resupplying ozone to the high latitude region, although chemistry failings cannot be completely ruled out. Comparison of ozone and related species will be shown along with a full diagnosis of the model ozone budget and its possible sources of error.

Kawa, S. Randy↗

Ozone Budgets from a Global Chemistry/Transport Model and Comparison to Observations from POLARIS

The objective of the Photochemistry of Ozone Loss in the Arctic Region in Summer (POLARIS) field mission was to obtain data to better characterize the summertime seasonal decrease of ozone at mid to high latitudes. The decrease in ozone occurs mainly in the lower stratosphere and is expected to result from in situ chemical destruction. Instrumented balloons and aircraft were used in POLARIS, along with satellites, to measure ozone and chemical species which are involved with stratospheric ozone chemistry. In order to close the seasonal ozone budget, however, ozone transport must also be estimated. Comparison to a global chemistry and transport model (CTM) of the stratosphere indicates how well the summertime ozone loss processes are simulated and thus how well we can predict the ozone response to changing amounts of chemical source gases. Moreover, the model gives insight into the possible relative magnitude of transport contributions to the seasonal ozone decline. Initial comparison to the Goddard CTM, which uses transport winds and temperatures from meteorological data assimilation, shows a high ozone bias in the model and an attenuated summertime ozone loss cycle. Comparison of the model chemical partitioning and ozone catalytic loss rates to those derived from measurements shows fairly close agreement both at ER-2 altitudes (20 km) and higher. This suggests that the model transport is too active in resupplying ozone to the high latitude region, although chemistry failings cannot be completely ruled out. Comparison of ozone and related species will be shown along with a full diagnosis of the model ozone budget and its possible sources of error.

Kawa, S. Randolph↗

Regional Changes in the Sea Ice Cover and Ice Production in the Antarctic

Coastal polynyas around the Antarctic continent have been regarded as sea ice factories because of high ice production rates in these regions. The observation of a positive trend in the extent of Antarctic sea ice during the satellite era has been intriguing in light of the observed rapid decline of the ice extent in the Arctic. The results of analysis of the time series of passive microwave data indicate large regional variability with the trends being strongly positive in the Ross Sea, strongly negative in the Bellingshausen/Amundsen Seas and close to zero in the other regions. The atmospheric circulation in the Antarctic is controlled mainly by the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and the marginal ice zone around the continent shows an alternating pattern of advance and retreat suggesting the presence of a propagating wave (called Antarctic Circumpolar Wave) around the circumpolar region. The results of analysis of the passive microwave data suggest that the positive trend in the Antarctic sea ice cover could be caused primarily by enhanced ice production in the Ross Sea that may be associated with more persistent and larger coastal polynyas in the region. Over the Ross Sea shelf, analysis of sea ice drift data from 1992 to 2008 yields a positive rate-of-increase in the net ice export of about 30,000 km2 per year. For a characteristic ice thickness of 0.6 m, this yields a volume transport of about 20 km3/year, which is almost identical, within error bars, to our estimate of the trend in ice production. In addition to the possibility of changes in SAM, modeling studies have also indicated that the ozone hole may have a role in that it causes the deepening of the lows in the western Antarctic region thereby causing strong winds to occur offthe Ross-ice shelf.

Comiso, Josefino C.↗

NASA/MSFC FY92 Earth Science and Applications Program Research Review

A large amount of attention has recently been given to global issues such as the ozone hole, tropospheric temperature variability, etc. A scientific challenge is to better understand atmospheric processes on a variety of spatial and temporal scales in order to predict environmental changes. Measurement of geophysical parameters such as wind, temperature, and moisture are needed to validate theories, provide analyzed data sets, and initialize or constrain numerical models. One of NASA's initiatives is the Mission to Planet Earth Program comprised of an Earth Observation System (EOS) and the scientific strategy to analyze these data. This work describes these efforts in the context of satellite data analysis and fundamental studies of atmospheric dynamics which examine selected processes important to the global circulation.

Arnold, James E.↗

Radicals and Reservoirs in the GMI Chemistry and Transport Model: Comparison to Measurements

We have used a three-dimensional chemistry and transport model (CTM), developed under the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI), to carry out two simulations of the composition of the stratosphere under changing halogen loading for 1995 through 2030. The two simulations differ only in that one uses meteorological fields from a general circulation model while the other uses meteorological fields from a data assimilation system. A single year's winds and temperatures are repeated for each 36-year simulation. We compare results from these two simulations with an extensive collection of data from satellite and ground-based measurements for 1993-2000. Comparisons of simulated fields with observations of radical and reservoir species for some of the major ozone-destroying compounds are of similar quality for both simulations. Differences in the upper stratosphere, caused by transport of total reactive nitrogen and methane, impact the balance among the ozone loss processes and the sensitivity of the two simulations to the change in composition.

Douglass, Anne R.↗

Dynamical Changes Induced by the Very Large Solar Proton Events in October-November 2003

The very large solar storms in October-November 2003 caused solar proton events (SPEs) at the Earth and impacted the upper atmospheric polar cap regions. The Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Electrodynamic General Circulation Mode (TIME-GCM) was used to study the atmospheric dynamical influence of the solar protons that occurred in Oct-Nov 2003, the fourth largest period of SPEs measured in the past 40 years. The highly energetic solar protons caused ionization and changes in the electric field, which led to Joule heating of the mesosphere and lower thermosphere. This heating led to temperature increases up to 4K in the upper mesosphere. The solar proton-induced ionization, as well as dissociation processes, led to the production of odd hydrogen (HO(x)) and odd nitrogen (NO(y)). Substantial (>40%) short-lived ozone decreases followed these enhancements of HO(x) and NO(y) and led to a cooling of the mesosphere and upper stratosphere. This cooling led to temperature decreases up to 2.5K. The solar proton-caused temperature changes led to maximum meridional and zonal wind variations of +/- 2 m/s on background winds up to +/- 30 m/s. The solar proton-induced wind perturbations were computed to taper off over a period of several days past the SPEs. Solar cycle 23 was accompanied by ten very large SPEs between 1998 and 2005, along with numerous smaller events. These solar proton-driven atmospheric variations need to be carefully considered when examining other polar changes.

Jackman, Charles H.↗

Faster Tropical Upper Stratospheric Upwelling Drives Changes in Ozone Chemistry

Tropospheric trends in long-lived source gases N2O and the chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) cause trends in O3 through changes in their reactive product gases. Transport affects the product gases because it controls the distribution of the long-lived source gases. We find that large changes in tropical upwelling 10-5 hPa since 2012 have strengthened the northern branch of the upper stratospheric (UpS) transport circulation, dramatically altering the abundances of N2O and its odd nitrogen product gases, NOx and HNO3. Increased upwelling is connected to stronger and more frequent Quasi-Biennial Oscillation easterly winds at 10 hPa and above. We use simulations with and without time varying MERRA2 meteorology to quantify the impact of dynamical changes on O3 loss via the NOx and ClOx cycles. We find that dynamical impacts on these cycles explain the mid-stratospheric tropical O3 increase and Arctic UpS O3 decrease since 2005.

Middle atmosphere chemistry and composition↗

Impact of Regional Northern Hemisphere Mid-latitude Anthropogenic Sulfur Dioxide Emissions on Local and Remote Tropospheric Oxidants

The unintended consequences of reductions in regional anthropogenic sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions implemented to protect human health are poorly understood. SO2 decreases began in the 1970s in the US and Europe and are expected to continue into the future, while recent emissions decreases in China are also projected to continue. In addition to the well-documented climate effects (warming) from reducing aerosols, tropospheric oxidation is impacted via aerosol modification of photolysis rates and radical sinks. Impacts on the hydroxyl radical and other trace constituents directly affect climate and air quality metrics such as surface ozone levels. We use the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Atmospheric Model version 3 nudged towards National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis wind velocities to estimate the impact of SO2 emissions from the US, Europe, and China by differencing a control simulation with an otherwise identical simulation in which 2015 anthropogenic SO2 emissions are set to zero over one of the regions. Springtime sulfate aerosol changes occur both locally to the emission region and also throughout the Northern Hemispheric troposphere, including remote oceanic regions and the Arctic. Hydroperoxy (HO2) radicals are directly removed via heterogeneous chemistry on aerosol surfaces, including sulfate, in the model, and we find that sulfate aerosol produced by SO2 emissions from the three individual northern mid-latitude regions strongly reduces both HO2 and hydroxyl (OH) by up to 10 % year-round throughout most of the troposphere north of 30∘ N latitude. Regional SO2 emissions significantly increase nitrogen oxides (NOx) by about 5 %–8 % throughout most of the free troposphere in the Northern Hemisphere by increasing the NOx lifetime as the heterogeneous sink of HO2 on sulfate aerosol declines. Despite the NOx increases, tropospheric ozone decreases at northern mid-latitudes by 1 %–4 % zonally averaged and by up to 5 ppbv in summertime surface air over China, where the decreases in HO2 and OH suppress O3 production. Since 2015 anthropogenic SO2 emissions in China exceed those in the US or Europe, the oxidative response is greatest for the China perturbation simulation. Chemical effects of aerosols on oxidation (reactive uptake) dominate over radiative effects (photolysis rates), the latter of which are only statistically significant locally for the large perturbation over China. We find that the SO2 emissions decrease in China, which has yet to be fully realized, will have the largest impact on oxidants and related species in the Northern Hemisphere free troposphere compared to future decreases in Europe or the US. Our results bolster previous calls for a multipollutant strategy for air pollution mitigation to avoid the unintended consequence of aerosol removal leading to surface ozone increases that offset or mask surface ozone gains achieved by regulation of other pollutants, especially in countries where current usage of high-sulfur emitting fuels may be phased out in the future.

anthropogenic sulfur dioxide emissions↗

Interannual Variability in the Equatorial Stratosphere: Comparison of 2D Model Simulations with Satellite Constituent Data

Satellite observations from UARS and TOMS have provided unique data sets for studying seasonal and interannual stratospheric constituent variability during the 1990's. The corresponding meteorological variability is also well represented by the partly satellite-based UKMO assimilation winds and temperatures. In this study, we use the UKMO meteorological fields to derive zonal mean transport components (residual circulation, horizontal eddy diffusion) for each year, 1992-1998. These fields are then used in our GSFC two-dimensional chemistry and transport model to simulate the year to year changes in ozone and long lived tracers in the equatorial stratosphere due to interannual dynamical variability. The resulting model simulation of ozone and CH4 compares reasonably well with UARS data in reproducing a dominant QBO signal in the lower stratosphere, and a dominant semiannual signature in the upper stratosphere which appears to be modulated by the lower stratospheric QBO. The model also compares well with TOMS data in simulating the phase of the QBO in total ozone, although the model QBO amplitude is somewhat underestimated relative to TOMS. These comparisons illustrate that the general zonal mean transport characteristics in the equatorial stratosphere can be reasonably well simulated using an empirically-based residual circulation.

Fleming, Eric L.↗

Stratospheric ozone changes during the first year of SBUV observations

Synoptic analyses of solar backscattered ultraviolet (SBUV) ozone data have been performed on a daily basis for the first year of Nimbus 7 operation, November 1978 through October 1979, at the standard pressure levels: 30, 10, 5, 2, 1, and 0.4 mbar. By combining these data with the daily NMC meteorological analyses of temperature and geostrophic wind at the same levels, elements of the ozone-temperature relationship as well as the horizontal eddy transports are examined. In particular, the existence of an upper stratospheric high-latitude ozone minimum in winter is discussed, and the eddy fluxes are found to play a significant role in this feature, mainly associated with stratospheric warming pulses. At the same time, monthly average quantities are examined, and standing eddy components are related.

Nagatani, R. M.↗

Photochemistry in planetary atmospheres

Widely varying paths of evolutionary history, atmospheric processes, solar fluxes, and temperatures have produced vastly different planetary atmospheres. The similarities and differences between the earth atmosphere and those of the terrestrial planets (Venus and Mars) and of the Jovian planets are discussed in detail; consideration is also given to the photochemistry of Saturn, Uranus, Pluto, Neptune, Titan, and Triton. Changes in the earth's ancient atmosphere are described, and problems of interest in the earth's present troposphere are discussed, including the down wind effect, plume interactions, aerosol nucleation and growth, acid rain, and the fate of terpenes. Temperature fluctuations in the four principal layers of the earth's atmosphere, predicted decreases in the ozone concentration as a function of time, and spectra of particles in the earth's upper atmosphere are also presented. Finally, the vertical structure of the Venus cloud system and the thermal structure of the Jovian planets are shown graphically.

Levine, J. S.↗

Ozone Loss From Quasi-Conservative Coordinate Mapping During the 1999-2000 SOLVE Campaign

During the winter of 1999-2000, the Sage III Ozone Loss and Validation Experiment (SOLVE) field experiment took place in Kiruna, Sweden. The purpose of SOLVE was to examine ozone depletion mechanisms in the Arctic stratosphere (from about 10 to 50 km altitude) during the winter and early spring, when a band of strong winds (the 'polar vortex') circle the pole. Measurements of stratospheric ozone were made by several different kinds of instruments in different meteorological situations. We analyzed these data using the 'quasi-conservative coordinate mapping' technique, in which the measurements are analyzed in terms of meteorological properties ('potential temperature' and 'potential vorticity') which tend not to change very much over a few days. This technique reduces or removes the changes that are associated with the polar vortex moving around. Over longer time periods, potential temperature and potential vorticity change as air cools and descends within the polar vortex. We account for these changes by calculating the trajectories of air parcels, and this enables us to extend the analysis over a ten-week period from January 10 to March 17, 2000. Using data from the NASA ER-2 aircraft, from the DIAL and AROTEL laser sounders on the NASA DC-8 aircraft, and balloon-borne ozonesondes, our analysis reveals changes in ozone which, because we have removed the effects of polar vortex motion and the descending air, indicate chemical destruction of ozone in early 2000. We find a peak decline rate of approximately 0.03 ppmv/day near 470 K of potential temperature (near 20 km) in mid-January which sinks in altitude to around 440 K (near 18 km) in mid-March.

Lait, L. R.↗

The Dynamical Role of the Chesapeake Bay on the Local Ozone Pollution Using Mesoscale Modeling—A Case Study

This study investigated the dynamic influence of the Chesapeake Bay (CB) on local ozone (O3) concentration and distribution using a weather forecasting model. The Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF–Chem) was employed to simulate O3 production and transportation near the CB. Baseline (water) as well as sensitivity (nowater) model experiments of bay circulation were carried out with and without bay water by changing the water surface from water to land (loam). First, the model performance simulating O3 was evaluated using the baseline experiment results and AirNow surface wind and O3 observations. The results showed that the model overestimates surface O3 by up to 20–30%. Further, the comparisons of the baseline and sensitivity experiments revealed higher O3 mixing ratios, primarily due to the resulting bay breeze circulation. These increases, after considering model overestimation, represent a mean bay dynamics circulation-induced contribution of up to 10% at night and 5% during the day. Furthermore, the boundary layer over northern CB, where it is at its narrowest width, was higher (by 1.2 km on average) during daytime due to higher surface temperatures observed. The boundary layer depth difference between the northern, central, and southern regions of the bay leads to a differential in the role of bay circulation dynamics in the observed O3 increase. The relatively wider swath of water surface over southern CB resulted in a lower boundary layer depth and stronger breeze circulation and this circulation contributed to O3 concentrations. Moreover, since the case selected has a minimal bay breeze circulation, the associated surface ozone enhancements represent what is expected at least at a minimum.

Chesapeak Bay↗

Quasi-biennial oscillation in total ozone: Global behaviour derived from ground-based measurements

The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in total ozone (TO) is studied on the basis of TO measurements at the world ground-ased ozone network during 1972-1988. The TO content is on the whole greater in the tropical belt and smaller in high latitudes during the westerly phase of the QBO of the equatorial stratospheric 50 mb wind than during the easterly phase in all seasons. The appropriate TO difference (westerly category minus easterly category) displays certain space structures changing during a year. There are regions with the peculiar annual evolution of this difference, particularly in the Arctic and Antarctic. Spectral analysis reveals bimodality of TO power spectra in the frequency range of QBO periods, with spectral maxima corresponding to 17-23 months and 28-35 months. The large period oscillations are predominant on the whole. The small period oscillations are likely the consequence of interaction between an annual cycle and QBO.

Gruzdev, Alexander N.↗

Impacts, processes and projections of the quasi-biennial oscillation

In the tropical stratosphere, deep layers of eastward and westward winds encircle the globe and descend regularly from the upper stratosphere to the tropical tropopause. With a complete cycle typically lasting almost 2.5 years, this quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is arguably the most predictable mode of atmospheric variability that is not linked to the changing seasons. Here, the QBO affects climate phenomena outside the tropical stratosphere, including ozone transport, the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Madden–Julian Oscillation, and its high predictability could enable better forecasts of these phenomena if models can accurately represent the coupling processes. Climate and forecasting models are increasingly able to simulate stratospheric oscillations resembling the QBO, but exhibit common systematic errors such as weak amplitude in the lowermost tropical stratosphere. Uncertainties about the waves that force the oscillation, particularly the momentum fluxes from small-scale gravity waves excited by deep convection, make its simulation challenging. Improved representation of the processes governing the QBO is expected to lead to better forecasts of the oscillation and its impacts, increased understanding of unusual events such as the two QBO disruptions observed since 2016, and more reliable future projections of QBO behaviour under climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Separating the Chemical and Dynamical Contributions to the Ozone Change

Statistical analysis is used to extract the sensitivity of ozone to changes in stratospheric chlorine due to emissions of chlorofluorcarbons from the observed ozone record. The statistical analysis relies on a model that accounts for natural variations in ozone including the seasonal cycle, the solar cycle, variations in aerosols due to volcanic eruption, and the quasi- biennial oscillation, A noise term includes contributions to ozone variability due to inter-annual variability in the stratospheric circulation not due to the quasi-biennial oscillation, The residual circulation varies due to variability in planetary wave forcing, and studies using meteorological analyses show that the build-up of ozone over the winter is correlated with the planetary wave Eliassen-Palm flux. This variability in the residual circulation is not included in the statistical model, and contributes to the apparent ozone sensitivity to chlorine derived from observations for 1979 - 2000. We have investigated these relationships using multi-decadal simulations of our off-line chemistry and transport model (CTM). Our simulations use meteorological fields output from a 50 year simulation of a general circulation model (GCM). A 50 climatology specifies the sea surface temperatures to produce the GCM simulation. The CTM was used with these winds to produce two simulations, one in which the boundary conditions for chlorofluorcarbons and other source gases vary as specified for 1973-2022 by the Scenario A2 of the World Meteorological Organization ozone assessment, and the second with source gases fixed to their 1979 values. The same statistical analysis used to derive trends from observations is applied to the CTM output. When applied to the difference between the two simulations the statistical analysis provides a more precise measure of the ozone sensitivity to chlorine change. We are testing ways of including the interannual variability in the residual circulation in the statistical model so that we can derive the same result from the Scenario A2 simulation as is obtained when the statistical analysis is applied to the difference between the two simulations. This should provide direction as to how to account for the changes in ozone due to interannual variability in the residual circulation in the statistical model that is applied to the observed data record.

Douglass, Anne R.↗