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At least 55 records · Page 3

Characterizing How Meteorological Forcing Selection and Parameter Uncertainty Influence Community Land Model Version 5 Hydrological Applications in the United States

Despite the increasing use of large-scale Land Surface Models (LSMs) in predicting hydrological responses in extreme conditions, there's a critical gap in understanding the uncertainties in these predictions. This study addresses this gap through a detailed diagnostic evaluation of the uncertainties arising from meteorological forcing selection and model parametrization in hydrological simulations of the Community Land Model version 5 (CLM5). CLM5 is configured at a spatial scale of about 12-km to simulate runoff processes for 464 headwater watersheds, selected from the Catchment Attributes for Large-Sample Studies (CAMELS) dataset to be representative of physiographic and climatic gradients across the conterminous United States. For each watershed, CLM5 is driven by five commonly used gridded forcing datasets in combination with a large ensemble (> 1200) of key CLM5 hydrologic parameters. Our results suggest that uncertainty in CLM5 runoff simulations resulting from both forcing and parametric sources is markedly higher in arid regions, e.g., Great Plains and Midwest regions. Uncertainty in low flow is dominated by parametric uncertainty, while the selection of meteorological forcing contributes more dominantly to high flow and seasonal flows during fall and spring. Our analysis also demonstrates that the selection of forcing datasets and the metrics used to calibrate CLM5 significantly impact the model’s predictive accuracy in extreme event severity for both floods and droughts. Overall, the results from this study highlight the need to understand and account for forcing and parametric uncertainties in CLM5 simulations, particularly for hazard and risk assessments addressing hydrologic extremes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Optimization Through Multi-Fidelity Modeling

We present a novel method for optimizing parameter selection for simulations with an evaluation budget. We start with an existing method for building a multi-fidelity model out of many low-fidelity simulations and few high-fidelity simulations. We propose a novel method to simplify parameter selection without sacrificing performance. We verify these results and compare with existing literature. Next, we propose a novel algorithm which uses this difference model to suggest new points in the parameter design space to simulate. We add each point we simulate to the model to improve its quality for the next iteration. The algorithm trades off reducing the uncertainty of the existing model with optimization of the objective. The first is more useful when a large fraction of the computation budget remains. The second is more useful when a small fraction of the computation budget remains. Our method converges to the optimum by using a high-fidelity evaluation for just 16 of the 427 points. Our method is general enough to work if there is no low-fidelity model. Furthermore, it is agnostic to the underlying physics of the problem. Therefore, both the low-fidelity and high-fidelity models can be generated by any arbitrary function, including simulations and physical experiments.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

The Effect of Turbulence Modeling on the Mixing Characteristics of Several Fuel Injectors at Hypervelocity Flow Conditions

CFD analysis is presented on the effects of turbulence modeling choices on the mixing characteristics and performance of three fuel injectors at hypervelocity flow conditions. The analyses were carried out with the VULCAN-CFD solver using Reynolds-Averaged Simulations (RAS). The hypervelocity flow conditions match the high Mach number flow of the experiments conducted as a part of the Enhanced Injection and Mixing Project (EIMP) at the NASA Langley Research Center. The three injectors are the baseline configurations used in the experiments and represent three categories of injectors typically considered individually or in combination for fueling high-speed propulsive devices. The current work discusses the impact of the turbulence model and the turbulent Schmidt number on the mixing flow field behavior and the mixing performance as described by the one-dimensional values of the Mach number, total pressure recovery, and the mixing efficiency. Because planar laser induced fluorescence (PLIF) images are available from the EIMP experiments, the sensitivity of the synthetic LIF signal to turbulence modeling choices is also examined to determine whether PLIF can be extended beyond its intended qualitative visualization purpose and used to guide CFD turbulence model and parameter selections. It is found that the mixing performance, as quantified using mixing efficiency, exhibits a strong sensitivity to both turbulence model choice and turbulent Schmidt number value. However, the synthetic LIF signal only demonstrates a modest level of sensitivity, which suggests that PLIF is of limited use for guiding CFD turbulence model and parameter selections.

Drozda, Tomasz G.

Optimal Asteroid Mass Determination from Planetary Range Observations: A Study of a Simplified Test Model

Mars ranging observations are available over the past 10 years with an accuracy of a few meters. Such precise measurements of the Earth-Mars distance provide valuable constraints on the masses of the asteroids perturbing both planets. Today more than 30 asteroid masses have thus been estimated from planetary ranging data (see [1] and [2]). Obtaining unbiased mass estimations is nevertheless difficult. Various systematic errors can be introduced by imperfect reduction of spacecraft tracking observations to planetary ranging data. The large number of asteroids and the limited a priori knowledge of their masses is also an obstacle for parameter selection. Fitting in a model a mass of a negligible perturber, or on the contrary omitting a significant perturber, will induce important bias in determined asteroid masses. In this communication, we investigate a simplified version of the mass determination problem. Instead of planetary ranging observations from spacecraft or radar data, we consider synthetic ranging observations generated with the INPOP [2] ephemeris for a test model containing ~25000 asteroids. We then suggest a method for optimal parameter selection and estimation in this simplified framework.

asteroids

Study of Material Consolidation at Higher Throughput Parameters in Selective Laser Melting of Inconel 718

Selective Laser Melting (SLM) is a powder bed fusion additive manufacturing process used increasingly in the aerospace industry to reduce the cost, weight, and fabrication time for complex propulsion components. SLM stands poised to revolutionize propulsion manufacturing, but there are a number of technical questions that must be addressed in order to achieve rapid, efficient fabrication and ensure adequate performance of parts manufactured using this process in safety-critical flight applications. Previous optimization studies for SLM using the Concept Laser M1 and M2 machines at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center have centered on machine default parameters. The objective of this work is to characterize the impact of higher throughput parameters (a previously unexplored region of the manufacturing operating envelope for this application) on material consolidation. In phase I of this work, density blocks were analyzed to explore the relationship between build parameters (laser power, scan speed, hatch spacing, and layer thickness) and material consolidation (assessed in terms of as-built density and porosity). Phase II additionally considers the impact of post-processing, specifically hot isostatic pressing and heat treatment, as well as deposition pattern on material consolidation in the same higher energy parameter regime considered in the phase I work. Density and microstructure represent the "first-gate" metrics for determining the adequacy of the SLM process in this parameter range and, as a critical initial indicator of material quality, will factor into a follow-on DOE that assesses the impact of these parameters on mechanical properties. This work will contribute to creating a knowledge base (understanding material behavior in all ranges of the AM equipment operating envelope) that is critical to transitioning AM from the custom low rate production sphere it currently occupies to the world of mass high rate production, where parts are fabricated at a rapid rate with confidence that they will meet or exceed all stringent functional requirements for spaceflight hardware. These studies will also provide important data on the sensitivity of material consolidation to process parameters that will inform the design and development of future flight articles using SLM.

Prater, Tracie

Finite Element Thermal Model for Ultrasonic Welding of Thermoplastic Composites

Ultrasonic welding, UW, is a fast and energy-efficient technique for joining thermoplastic composites. It involves the use of high-frequency mechanical vibrations and a static welding force to melt and join adherends. Ultrasonic welding is an enabling technology to reduce the cost and complexity of in-space construction because lightweight thermoplastic composite components can be packaged compactly for launch and then efficiently assembled using supervised autonomous robotic technologies on site. However, the temperatures in space present challenges to UW, and it is critical that the efficacy of process parameters selected for manufacturing in space is understood prior to launch. To this end, a three-dimensional finite element model is presented in this technical presentation. The model incorporates equations for effects of viscoelastic heating and heat transfer on the welding process. The proposed model is applied to predict the temperature distribution in single lap shear, SLS, samples composed of AS4/PEEK (TC1200) composite that were welded using a terrestrial machine as part of a comprehensive weldability study. Thermocouple and infrared spot sensor data from the SLS samples provide empirical temperature measurements for calibration and validation of the UW thermal model. Calibration and validation of the model is an important step given the significant uncertainties in material properties such as the loss modulus and necessary assumptions in the physics implementations which allow the model to converge in an acceptable amount of time. The validated thermal model can be used to simulate the process for the space environment. Future validation sample testing is planned in a vacuum chamber. The result will be a model capable of guiding process parameter selection to ensure acceptable weld bonds when manufacturing in space.

Josh Fody

Design study of a feedback control system for the Multicyclic Flap System rotor (MFS)

The feasibility of automatically providing higher harmonic control to a deflectable control flap at the tip of a helicopter rotor blade through feedback of selected independent parameter was investigated. Control parameters were selected for input to the feedback system. A preliminary circuit was designed to condition the selected parameters, weigh limiting factors, and provide a proper output signal to the multi-cyclic control actuators. Results indicate that feedback control for the higher harmonic is feasible; however, design for a flight system requires an extension of the present analysis which was done for one flight condition - 120 kts, 11,500 lbs gross weight and level flight.

Weisbrich, R.

A preliminary assessment of the accuracy of selected meteorological parameters determined from Nimbus 6 satellite profile data

Published rms errors in rawinsonde data and discrepancies between satellite and rawinsonde profile data for temperature, dewpoint temperature, mixing ratio, and wind speed. Satellite rms errors were found to be 2 to 3 times as large as those for rawinsonde data. Gradients of the preceding parameters were computed for both rawinsonde and satellite data and compared with means and near extreme values computed from the AVE 2 and AVE 4 experiments. In all cases, it was found that satellite data can be used to determine with relatively good accuracy the near extreme gradients but not those whose value does not exceed the average. Synoptic charts were prepared to show that patterns of temperature could be determined with relatively good accuracy, while those of dew point were not as good as those for temperature. Winds represented by cloud motion vectors (satellite winds) were compared with rawinsonde winds, and it was found that large gaps exist in satellite values for a given pressure level and that errors in the satellite determined concluded that satellite profile data are very useful in synoptic analysis, particularly in data sparse regions as well as regions where near extreme gradients exist in the measured parameters.

Scoggins, J. R.

A pilot modeling technique for handling-qualities research

A brief survey of the more dominant analysis techniques used in closed-loop handling-qualities research is presented. These techniques are shown to rely on so-called classical and modern analytical models of the human pilot which have their foundation in the analysis and design principles of feedback control. The optimal control model of the human pilot is discussed in some detail and a novel approach to the a priori selection of pertinent model parameters is discussed. Frequency domain and tracking performance data from 10 pilot-in-the-loop simulation experiments involving 3 different tasks are used to demonstrate the parameter selection technique. Finally, the utility of this modeling approach in handling-qualities research is discussed.

Hess, R. A.

Experiment K305: Quantitative analysis of selected bone parameters

The skeletal alterations induced by space flight were determined to be a reduced rate of periosteal bone formation in tibial and humeral diaphyses, a decreased trabecular bone volume, and an increased fat content of the bone marrow in the proximal tibial metaphysis. An increased incidence of arrest lines in flight animals suggested that periosteal bone formation may have ceased during space flight. Endosteal bone resorption was not affected markedly.

Wrongski, T. J.

Experiment K305: Quantitative analysis of selected bone parameters. Supplement 1: Effects of weightlessness on osteoblast differentiation in rat molar periodontium

The morphometric analysis of periodontal ligament (PDL), the osteogenic interface between tooth and bone, is described. Immediately post-flight, PDL width and total cell number were decreased. Frequency distributions of nuclear volume revealed that presumptive preosteoblasts were particularly depressed. Depleted numbers of preosteoblasts may be an important factor in the mechanism of inhibited bone formation during weightlessness.

Roberts, W. E.

Experiment K305: Quantitative analysis of selected bone parameters. Supplement 2: Bone elongation rate and bone mass in metaphysis of long bones

The proximal humeral metaphysis of rats from time periods recovery plus zero days (R+0), recovery plus six days (R+6), and recovery plus twenty nine days (R+29) was analyzed. The volume of calcified cartilage and bone in flight and synchronous controls was reduced in groups R+0 and R+6, but was normal in group R+29. The number of functional bone cells (osteoblasts and osteoclasts) was decreased in proportion to the amount of bone in the early groups, and was normal in the last group. The fatty marrow volume was increased only in flight animals of groups R+0 and R+6, but was normal in the R+29 group. Accumulation of excess fatty marrow was seen only in flight animals. The decreased amount of bone and calcified cartilage is believed to be the result of a temporarily slowed or arrested production of calcified cartilage as a substrate for bone formation. This would have resulted from slowed bone elongation during flight and synchronous control conditions. Bone elongation returned to normal by twenty nine days after return.

Jee, W. S. S.

Experiment K305: Quantitative analysis of selected bone parameters. Supplement 3A: Trabecular spacing and orientation in the long bones

Values of mean trabecular spacing computed from optical diffraction patterns of 1:1 X-ray micrographs of tibial metaphysis and those obtained by standard image digitization techniques show excellent agreement. Upper limits on values of mean trabecular orientation deduced from diffraction patterns and the images are also in excellent agreement. Values of the ratio of mean trabecular spatial density in a region of 300 micrometers distal to the downwardly directed convexity in the cartilage growth plate to the value adjacent to the plate determined for flight animals sacrificed at recovery were significantly smaller than values for vivarium control animals. No significant differences were found in proximal regions. No significant differences in mean trabecular orientation were detected. Decreased values of trabecular spatial density and of both obsteoblastic activity and trabecular cross-sectional area noted in collateral researches suggest decreased modeling activity under weightlessness.

Judy, M. M.

Experiment K305: Quantitative analysis of selected bone parameters. Supplement 3B: Mineralization in the long bones

Electron microscope and optical birefringent studies of growth plates and metaphyseal trabeculae are described. The type and functional state of bone cells were investigated and the zone of calcification of the cartilagenous growth plate, particularly the presence and condition of matrix vesicles, was characterized. Trabecular number, size, and orientation were assessed. Comparisons with a control group, indicating changes resulting from a zero gravity situation, are presented.

Matthews, J. L.

Trend analysis for large solid rocket motors - A program level approach

This paper defines a program-level trend analysis effort that can be applied to large solid rocket motors. The effort is especially applicable to large segmented rocket motors such as the Space Transportation System's solid rocket boosters. Five types of trend analysis are discussed for different aspects of a rocket motor program, (performance, reliability, problem, supportability, and programmatic). Ideas are offered for implementing and performing a program-level trend analysis effort by giving suggestions for selecting computer capabilities, choosing parameters, selecting statistical processes, routine screening for trends, analyzing significant trends (for example, looking for related trends and determining if adverse trends are resolved), and reporting results of trend analysis. The use of program-level trending allows for the ability to easily transfer data between organizations and easily use the data to correlate trends from the various organizations to find causal relationships. Efficiency is enhanced from upper level management to the shop floor at vendor locations by using the same trend analysis software and methodology at all organizations.

Babbitt, Norman E., III