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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS2019

Optical Telescope Assembly Cost Estimating Model

Parametric cost models can be used by designers and project managers to compare cost between major architectural cost drivers and allow high-level design trades; enable cost-benefit analysis for technology development investment; and, provide a basis for estimating total project cost between related concepts. The NASA Marshall Space Flight Center has developed a 5- parameter cost model that explains 93% (Adjusted R2) of the cost variation in a database of 46 total ground and space telescope assemblies. This model can be used to estimate the most probably cost for the Habitable Exoplanet Telescope Assembly.

Stahl, H Philip↗
NASA NTRS2020

Parametric Cost Model for Ground and Space Telescopes

Parametric cost models can be used by designers and project managers to compare cost between major architectural cost drivers and allow high-level design trades; enable cost-benefit analysis for technology development investment; and, provide a basis for estimating total project cost between related concepts. The NASA Marshall Space Flight Center has developed a 5-parameter first-article optical telescope assembly cost model OTA$ (FY17) = $20M x 30(S/G)x D(1.7)x λ(-0.5)x T(-0.25)x e(-0.028) (Y-1960)Where S/G = 1 for space and 0 for ground telescopes, D = diameter, λ= diffraction limited wavelength, T = operating temperature and Y = year of development. The model explains 92% (Adjusted R2) of the cost variation in a database of 47 total ground and space telescope assemblies (OTA). The MSFC model estimates the most likely cost for only the OTA. Where an OTA is defined as the subsystem which collects electromagnetic radiation and focuses it (focal) or concentrates it (afocal) into the science instruments. An OTA consists of the primary mirror, secondary mirror, auxiliary optics and support structure (such as optical bench or truss structure, primary support structure, secondary support structure or spiders, straylight baffles, mechanisms for adjusting the optical components, electronics or power systems for operating these mechanisms, etc.). Finally, duplication only reduces cost for the manufacture of identical systems(i.e. multiple aperture sparse arrays or interferometers). And, while duplication does reduce the cost of manufacturing the mirrors of segmented primary mirror, this cost savings does not appear to manifest itself in the final primary mirror assembly(presumably because the structure for a segmented mirror is more complicated than for a monolithic mirror).

Space Telescope Cost Model, Parametric Cost Model↗
NASA NTRS2010

Parametric Cost Models for Space Telescopes

Multivariable parametric cost models for space telescopes provide several benefits to designers and space system project managers. They identify major architectural cost drivers and allow high-level design trades. They enable cost-benefit analysis for technology development investment. And, they provide a basis for estimating total project cost. A survey of historical models found that there is no definitive space telescope cost model. In fact, published models vary greatly [1]. Thus, there is a need for parametric space telescopes cost models. An effort is underway to develop single variable [2] and multi-variable [3] parametric space telescope cost models based on the latest available data and applying rigorous analytical techniques. Specific cost estimating relationships (CERs) have been developed which show that aperture diameter is the primary cost driver for large space telescopes; technology development as a function of time reduces cost at the rate of 50% per 17 years; it costs less per square meter of collecting aperture to build a large telescope than a small telescope; and increasing mass reduces cost.

Stahl, H. Philip↗
NASA NTRS2017

Parametric Structural Model for a Mars Entry Concept

This paper outlines the process of developing a parametric model for a vehicle that can withstand Earth launch and Mars entry conditions. This model allows the user to change a variety of parameters ranging from dimensions and meshing to materials and atmospheric entry angles to perform finite element analysis on the model for the specified load cases. While this work focuses on an aeroshell for Earth launch aboard the Space Launch System (SLS) and Mars entry, the model can be applied to different vehicles and destinations. This specific project derived from the need to deliver large payloads to Mars efficiently, safely, and cheaply. Doing so requires minimizing the structural mass of the body as much as possible. The code developed for this project allows for dozens of cases to be run with the single click of a button. The end result of the parametric model gives the user a sense of how the body reacts under different loading cases so that it can be optimized for its purpose. The data are reported in this paper and can provide engineers with a good understanding of the model and valuable information for improving the design of the vehicle. In addition, conclusions show that the frequency analysis drives the design and suggestions are made to reduce the significance of normal modes in the design.

Lane, Brittney M.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Brayton Power Conversion System Parametric Design Modelling for Nuclear Electric Propulsion

The parametrically based closed Brayton cycle (CBC) computer design model was developed for inclusion into the NASA LeRC overall Nuclear Electric Propulsion (NEP) end-to-end systems model. The code is intended to provide greater depth to the NEP system modeling which is required to more accurately predict the impact of specific technology on system performance. The CBC model is parametrically based to allow for conducting detailed optimization studies and to provide for easy integration into an overall optimizer driver routine. The power conversion model includes the modeling of the turbines, alternators, compressors, ducting, and heat exchangers (hot-side heat exchanger and recuperator). The code predicts performance to significant detail. The system characteristics determined include estimates of mass, efficiency, and the characteristic dimensions of the major power conversion system components. These characteristics are parametrically modeled as a function of input parameters such as the aerodynamic configuration (axial or radial), turbine inlet temperature, cycle temperature ratio, power level, lifetime, materials, and redundancy.

Ashe, Thomas L.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Preliminary Parametric Cost Model for X-Ray Grazing Incidence Optics for Space Flight

Parametric cost models offer a lot of utility in planning and comparing different missions and concepts. Furthermore, they have a significant advantage over other estimating methodologies as they can be quickly and easily replicated. The cost model presented in this paper focuses on estimating the most likely cost for the X-ray Mirror Assembly (XMA) of space-based X-ray telescopes with grazing incidence optics. The authors recognize the complexities of generating a single cost model that covers multiple fabrication techniques, so they have limited this preliminary study to techniques used on previous and current missions, such as direct polished glass full shell, replicated, and foil optics

Space Telescope Cost Model↗
NASA NTRS1988

Developing integrated parametric planning models for budgeting and managing complex projects

The applicability of integrated parametric models for the budgeting and management of complex projects is investigated. Methods for building a very flexible, interactive prototype for a project planning system, and software resources available for this purpose, are discussed and evaluated. The prototype is required to be sensitive to changing objectives, changing target dates, changing costs relationships, and changing budget constraints. To achieve the integration of costs and project and task durations, parametric cost functions are defined by a process of trapezoidal segmentation, where the total cost for the project is the sum of the various project cost segments, and each project cost segment is the integral of a linearly segmented cost loading function over a specific interval. The cost can thus be expressed algebraically. The prototype was designed using Lotus-123 as the primary software tool. This prototype implements a methodology for interactive project scheduling that provides a model of a system that meets most of the goals for the first phase of the study and some of the goals for the second phase.

Etnyre, Vance A.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Update on Multi-Variable Parametric Cost Models for Ground and Space Telescopes

Parametric cost models can be used by designers and project managers to perform relative cost comparisons between major architectural cost drivers and allow high-level design trades; enable cost-benefit analysis for technology development investment; and, provide a basis for estimating total project cost between related concepts. This paper reports on recent revisions and improvements to our ground telescope cost model and refinements of our understanding of space telescope cost models. One interesting observation is that while space telescopes are 50X to 100X more expensive than ground telescopes, their respective scaling relationships are similar. Another interesting speculation is that the role of technology development may be different between ground and space telescopes. For ground telescopes, the data indicates that technology development tends to reduce cost by approximately 50% every 20 years. But for space telescopes, there appears to be no such cost reduction because we do not tend to re-fly similar systems. Thus, instead of reducing cost, 20 years of technology development may be required to enable a doubling of space telescope capability. Other findings include: mass should not be used to estimate cost; spacecraft and science instrument costs account for approximately 50% of total mission cost; and, integration and testing accounts for only about 10% of total mission cost.

Stahl, H. Philip↗
NASA NTRS2016

Towards a Multi-Variable Parametric Cost Model for Ground and Space Telescopes

Parametric cost models can be used by designers and project managers to perform relative cost comparisons between major architectural cost drivers and allow high-level design trades; enable cost-benefit analysis for technology development investment; and, provide a basis for estimating total project cost between related concepts. This paper hypothesizes a single model, based on published models and engineering intuition, for both ground and space telescopes: OTA Cost approximately (X) D(exp (1.75 +/- 0.05)) lambda(exp(-0.5 +/- 0.25) T(exp -0.25) e (exp (-0.04)Y). Specific findings include: space telescopes cost 50X to 100X more ground telescopes; diameter is the most important CER; cost is reduced by approximately 50% every 20 years (presumably because of technology advance and process improvements); and, for space telescopes, cost associated with wavelength performance is balanced by cost associated with operating temperature. Finally, duplication only reduces cost for the manufacture of identical systems (i.e. multiple aperture sparse arrays or interferometers). And, while duplication does reduce the cost of manufacturing the mirrors of segmented primary mirror, this cost savings does not appear to manifest itself in the final primary mirror assembly (presumably because the structure for a segmented mirror is more complicated than for a monolithic mirror).

Space Mirror Technology↗
NASA NTRS2011

Parametric Mass Modeling for Mars Entry, Descent and Landing System Analysis Study

This paper provides an overview of the parametric mass models used for the Entry, Descent, and Landing Systems Analysis study conducted by NASA in FY2009-2010. The study examined eight unique exploration class architectures that included elements such as a rigid mid-L/D aeroshell, a lifting hypersonic inflatable decelerator, a drag supersonic inflatable decelerator, a lifting supersonic inflatable decelerator implemented with a skirt, and subsonic/supersonic retro-propulsion. Parametric models used in this study relate the component mass to vehicle dimensions and mission key environmental parameters such as maximum deceleration and total heat load. The use of a parametric mass model allows the simultaneous optimization of trajectory and mass sizing parameters.

Samareh, Jamshid A.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Multivariable Parametric Cost Model for Ground Optical: Telescope Assembly

A parametric cost model for ground-based telescopes is developed using multi-variable statistical analysis of both engineering and performance parameters. While diameter continues to be the dominant cost driver, diffraction limited wavelength is found to be a secondary driver. Other parameters such as radius of curvature were examined. The model includes an explicit factor for primary mirror segmentation and/or duplication (i.e. multi-telescope phased-array systems). Additionally, single variable models based on aperture diameter were derived.

Stahl, H. Philip↗
NASA NTRS2005

Multivariable Parametric Cost Model for Ground Optical Telescope Assembly

A parametric cost model for ground-based telescopes is developed using multivariable statistical analysis of both engineering and performance parameters. While diameter continues to be the dominant cost driver, diffraction-limited wavelength is found to be a secondary driver. Other parameters such as radius of curvature are examined. The model includes an explicit factor for primary mirror segmentation and/or duplication (i.e., multi-telescope phased-array systems). Additionally, single variable models Based on aperture diameter are derived.

Stahl, H. Philip↗
NASA NTRS2014

Parametric System Model for a Stirling Radioisotope Generator

A Parametric System Model (PSM) was created in order to explore conceptual designs, the impact of component changes and power level on the performance of Stirling Radioisotope Generator (SRG). Using the General Purpose Heat Source (GPHS approximately 250 watt thermal) modules as the thermal building block around which a SRG is conceptualized, trade studies are performed to understand the importance of individual component scaling on isotope usage. Mathematical relationships based on heat and power throughput, temperature, mass and volume were developed for each of the required subsystems. The PSM uses these relationships to perform component and system level trades.

Modules↗
NASA NTRS2015

Parametric System Model for a Stirling Radioisotope Generator

A Parametric System Model (PSM) was created in order to explore conceptual designs, the impact of component changes and power level on the performance of the Stirling Radioisotope Generator (SRG). Using the General Purpose Heat Source (GPHS approximately 250 Wth) modules as the thermal building block from which a SRG is conceptualized, trade studies are performed to understand the importance of individual component scaling on isotope usage. Mathematical relationships based on heat and power throughput, temperature, mass, and volume were developed for each of the required subsystems. The PSM uses these relationships to perform component- and system-level trades.

Heat Transfer↗
NASA NTRS2010

Parametric Cost Models for Space Telescopes

A study is in-process to develop a multivariable parametric cost model for space telescopes. Cost and engineering parametric data has been collected on 30 different space telescopes. Statistical correlations have been developed between 19 variables of 59 variables sampled. Single Variable and Multi-Variable Cost Estimating Relationships have been developed. Results are being published.

Stahl, H. Philip↗
NASA NTRS1993

Parametric uncertainty modeling for application to robust control

Viewgraphs and a paper on parametric uncertainty modeling for application to robust control are included. Advanced robust control system analysis and design is based on the availability of an uncertainty description which separates the uncertain system elements from the nominal system. Although this modeling structure is relatively straightforward to obtain for multiple unstructured uncertainties modeled throughout the system, it is difficult to formulate for many problems involving real parameter variations. Furthermore, it is difficult to ensure that the uncertainty model is formulated such that the dimension of the resulting model is minimal. A procedure for obtaining an uncertainty model for real uncertain parameter problems in which the uncertain parameters can be represented in a multilinear form is presented. Furthermore, the procedure is formulated such that the resulting uncertainty model is minimal (or near minimal) relative to a given state space realization of the system. The approach is demonstrated for a multivariable third-order example problem having four uncertain parameters.

Belcastro, Christine M.↗