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DOE OSTI2026

Building the Business Case with JUSTIFI: Quantifying Multiple Benefits in the Automotive Industry

The Michigan State University Industrial Training and Assessment Center (MSU ITAC) conducted a pilot study at an automotive parts manufacturer in Michigan. The study identified energy-productivity enhancements through the application of the JUSTIFI software. Key recommendations included replacing six inefficient rooftop units (RTUs) with a new air rotational unit. By quantifying operational savings for this project, the expected payback period went from 6.6 years to 1.4 years. Additionally, the installation of variable frequency drives (VFDs) on condenser tower motors was suggested. By including all operational benefits, the payback period was reduced from 8.2 years to 1.3 years. This comprehensive analysis aims to bolster the manufacturer's goals of reducing energy while enhancing overall operational efficiency.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2021

Economic risk analysis for the capture of a distributed energy resource using modular chemical process intensification

Recent advances in the chemical process industry have allowed for the intensification of reactors and unit operations, by enhancing heat and mass transfer or combining multiple unit operations. Process intensification can enable chemical plants to be constructed in a more compact, modular fashion, offering improvements over conventional on-site approaches to capital construction, operations and maintenance. This modular chemical process intensification (MCPI) offers several benefits over conventional stick-built (CSB) plant construction in terms of reduced footprint, reduced energy consumption, lower cost, less waste and improved safety and quality control. However, acceptance of MCPI over CSB construction practices within the chemical industry can be impeded by the uncertain risks associated with investing in new technology. Furthermore, the work here documents a case study during the development of a modular chemical plant for capturing distributed energy resources within chemical production. This MCPI approach to plant construction is contrasted with a CSB approach for producing the same chemical product. Data collection tools were developed, based on a literature review, and data was collected from the technology developer to understand the process technology. Sensitivity analysis was then conducted to analyze the business rationale for the application of MCPI over CSB across several market scenarios. It was found that MCPI would be better suited for capacities up to 150 000 metric tons per year, but that improvement in payback period was needed. Additionally, for MCPI approach to achieve acceptable payback periods, efforts are needed to reduce the cost of capital equipment and compress the schedule for ramping up modular production.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2017

Efficiency and Risk of Investments in Nuclear Power

It is shown that together with the reduced cost of electricity it is also necessary to examine other efficiency criteria for investments in NPP – the internal profitability norm and the discounted payback time of investments – and their impact on the primary profitability criterion of an NPP project – the pure discounted income. The analytical interconnection of the pure discounted income, internal profitability norm of a project, and the discounted payback time of investments, which is obtained using an exponential discounting function for the expected cash flows, is shown. The requirements of the engineering and economic parameters of NPP that make NPP competitive on the world market are formulated from an analysis of the interrelation of investment efficiency criteria. The NPP investment risk evaluated by the Monte Carlo method with prescribed uncertainty of prediction of cash flows during construction and operation of NPP is presented.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Techno-economic and life cycle analyses for a supercritical biodiesel production process from waste cooking oil for a plant located in the Midwest United States

Existing literature lacks detailed techno-economic and environmental life cycle analyses (TEA-LCA) focused on supercritical biodiesel production pathways produced via waste products. Therefore, in this work, the TEA-LCA was conducted to generate supercritical biodiesel from waste cooking oil for plants located in the Midwest region of USA having annual production capacities of 10,600 and 128,000 t using Aspen Plus and GREET softwares. Here, two plant production capacities were chosen to capture the economies of scale impact on biodiesel manufacture cost. In the supercritical process, methanol and propane were used as a cosolvent to synthesize biodiesel from waste cooking oil (WCO) at 280 °C and 128 bar at a residence time of 8.4 min and a WCO conversion rate of 97%. Economic analysis revealed that the supercritical process was an economically attractive pathway with a 2-year payback period for the 10,600 t/year capacity along with a break-even selling price of $\$$ 2.42/gal of diesel. In case of the larger plant (128,000 t/year capacity), the payback period and the breakeven selling price were considerably lower at values of 0.4 years and $1.31/gal of diesel, respectively, due to economies of scale impact. The generated biodiesel from supercritical process for the both the plant capacities met European (EN14214) and US (ASTM D6751) fuel quality standards while the obtained commercially valuable side product, i.e., glycerol, adhered to a pharmaceutical grade of 99.7%. Cradle to gate life cycle analysis using GREET revealed that supercritical process possessed 17% lower CO2 emissions than alkali-catalyzed process and 4% lower CO2 emissions than the conventional diesel production process. Other biodiesel production pathways in the literature were also compared to the results of the TEA-LCA of supercritical biodiesel production pathway.

Biodiesel production↗

DOE OSTI2019

Study of optimal sizing for residential sorption heat pump system

Gas-driven sorption heat pumps (GDSHP) show significant potential to reduce primary energy use, associated emissions and energy costs for space heating and domestic hot water production in residential applications. This study considered a bivalent heating system consisting of a sorption heat pump and a condensing boiler, and focuses on the optimal heating capacity of each of these components relative to each other. Two bivalent systems were considered: one based on a solid chemisorption cycle (GDSHPA), and one based on a resorption cycle (GDSHPB). Simulations of year-round space heating loads for two single-family houses, one in New York and the other Minnesota, were carried out and the seasonal gas coefficient of performance (SGCOP) calculated. The sorption heat pump’s design heating capacity as a fraction of the bivalent system’s total heating capacity was varied from 0 to 100%. Results show that SGCOP was effectively constant for sorption heat pump design capacity greater than 41% of the peak bivalent GDSHPA design capacity in Minnesota, and 32% for GDSHPB. In New York, these values were 42% and 34% for GDSHPA and GDSHPB respectively. The payback period was also evaluated based on postulated sorption heat pump component costs. The fastest payback was achieved with sorption heat pump design capacity between 22 and 44%.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Long-term impact of electrification and retrofits of the U.S residential building in diverse locations

The U.S. buildings sector contributes 30% of operational carbon emissions, with residential buildings accounting for 56%. Reducing residential carbon emissions is crucial for achieving net-zero carbon goal. While many studies examine energy efficiency retrofit (EER) and electrification, few explore their long-term impacts across diverse climates and dynamic grid clean energy penetrations, as well as their economic effects on households. Here, this study proposes a method to assess how EER and electrification affect long-term decarbonization and economics across different climates, focusing on carbon emissions, energy burden (the percentage of household income spent on energy), and payback period in four locations: Tampa, San Diego, Denver, and Great Falls. The study also introduces the concept of implicit energy burden by considering investment costs. Results show that while electrification can reduce long-term emissions with increased clean energy penetration, it may not always achieve decarbonization due to mismatches between clean energy availability and demand. In cooling-dominant locations, electrification lowers energy burden and peak demand, but in heating-dominant locations, it increases energy burden to 8.24%, raises peak demand by 632.78%, and shifts it from summer to winter. After integrating investment costs, the implicit energy burden can reach 8.35% in cold climates. For already highly electrified buildings in Denver and Great Falls, the payback period of EER measures can be shortened by up to 48.98%. The study highlights a tradeoff between decarbonization and energy burden alleviation, showing that while EER measures can reduce the energy burden, they only achieve one-quarter of the carbon emission reduction of electrification.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2026

Intelligent industrial demand response to increase grid flexibility and reliability: A review

The rapid transition toward renewable energy has introduced challenges in grid stability due to the intermittency of non-dispatchable sources like solar and wind. Industrial Demand Response (IDR) offers a promising, cost-effective solution that adjusts energy consumption patterns to align with supply, increases renewable utilization, and reduces costs. This review provides an updated analysis of IDR, sorting technologies into five categories: energy storage, scheduled energy usage, operational flexibility, on-site generation, and intelligent operations. Energy storage solutions, while requiring little flexibility, often have the longest payback periods. While slightly better, on-site generation also has longer payback periods, ranging from 5 to 20 years or more. Scheduled energy usage, operational flexibility, and intelligent operations allow significant peak reduction at lower capital costs but require greater flexibility. While 15–20 % peak reduction is within the range of all five categories, scheduled energy use and on-site energy generation are shown to have reductions of up to 70–80 % in select scenarios. Combining multiple IDR strategies from these five categories maximizes both financial and operational benefits. Synergistic approaches are shown to enhance grid stability while reducing costs. As the grid evolves, IDR will enable a more flexible, renewable-powered future that will benefit industrial facilities and the broader energy system.

Demand flexibility↗

DOE OSTI2025

IoT-based retrofit information diffusion in future smart communities

Community-scale building retrofits are not merely scaled-up versions of single-building retrofits. They involve complex challenges, such as reconciling individual interests with collective goals and managing the dynamic interplay between buildings through mechanisms like power grids and social connections. Internet of Things (IoT) connectivity holds the potential to leverage these interplays to balance individual and collective interests effectively in smart communities. One critical aspect of this interplay is information diffusion, which shapes how retrofit decisions spread among neighbors, influencing individual choices and ultimately impacting community-level retrofit outcomes. In other words, IoT-based smart devices automatically push tailored retrofit notifications to homeowners, which completely changes the format of information diffusion in the future. To investigate this influence by such information diffusion, the study used CityBES to simulate energy performance for different retrofits and applied an information diffusion model to analyze how decisions spread in a networked community of 192 buildings. The diffusion process was modeled on a weighted, directed network, capturing the dynamics of information flow and decision-making across 16 scenarios. Individual retrofit benefits were evaluated through payback years, while community-level retrofit outcomes were assessed using greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions. The results demonstrate that easier information diffusion among neighbors encourages households to prioritize retrofit measures that align with the majority’s optimal choices, even at the expense of individual financial benefits. In this case, such collective prioritization enhanced community-level retrofit performance, increasing GHG emission reductions by up to 29.4 %. However, this improvement came with trade-offs, as the average payback period for households extended by approximately 1.74 years. These findings highlight the potential of IoT-based information diffusion in future smart communities to coordinate individual interests with collective goals, ultimately accelerating community-level building retrofits.

Shu, Lei↗

DOE OSTI2020

Energy, economic, and environmental analysis of integration of thermal energy storage into district heating systems using waste heat from data centres

Data centres produce waste heat, which can be utilized in district heating systems. However, the mismatch between data centres’ heat supply and district heating systems’ heat demands limits its utilization. Further, high peak loads increase the operation cost of district heating systems. This study aimed to solve these problems by introducing thermal energy storages. A water tank and a borehole thermal energy storage system were selected as the short-term and long-term thermal energy storage, respectively. Energy, economic, and environmental indicators were introduced to evaluate different solutions. The case study was a campus district heating system in Norway. Results showed that the water tank could shave the peak load by 31% and save the annual energy cost by 5%. The payback period was lower than 15 years when the storage efficiency remained higher than 80%. However, it had no obvious benefits in terms of mismatch relieving and CO emissions reduction. In contrast, the borehole thermal energy storage increased the waste heat utilization rate to 96% and reduced the annual CO emissions by 8%. However, the payback period was more than 17 years. These results provide guidelines for the retrofit of district heating systems, where data centres’ waste heat is available.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Energy savings and life cycle cost analysis of advanced double skin facade system applied to old apartments in South Korea

South Korea is one of the most densely populated countries in the world, and the population density in urban areas is much higher among others. Apartments are the most common form of residential buildings due to their high population density. More than 60% of domestic residential buildings are apartments, with more than 10 million households. The high population density is a problem that has long plagued South Korea because more than 45% of apartments are old apartments that are more than 20 years old. Old apartment buildings have low thermal performance that results in lots of energy consumption. Balconies, which worked as a thermal buffer, are also being removed by residents to expand indoor space. According to the green remodeling project supported by the Korean government, the typical retrofitting method is replacing external windows with the high-efficiency window in old apartments in South Korea. Here, this paper proposes a retrofitting method using an extended double-skin façade (DSF) system that replaces exterior windows and acts as a thermal buffer. The simulation model is developed with the EnergyPlus simulation program to conduct energy performance analyses. The simulation model has been calibrated using actual experimental data collected between October 1, 2019, and January 15, 2020. Results show that the cooling, heating, and lighting energy can be reduced up to 44.1% by fully utilizing electric energy generated by solar PV panels integrated with the DSF system. The payback period is about 15 years based on the energy price provided by the utility company. Although the payback period is long, it has great potential of energy savings and CO 2 emission reductions. The DSF system should be considered as a way of renovation, considering other factors such as increased real estate values and energy cost increases in the future.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2025

Techno-economic assessment of residential PV system tariff policies in Jordan

This study assesses the economic and technical performance of four energy policy scenarios for Jordan's residential photovoltaic (PV) systems: net metering, net billing, zero-export with battery storage, and sell-all-buy-all. With the recent introduction of time-of-use (TOU) tariffs and policies addressing the “duck curve” effect, the research focuses on optimizing PV system sizing across different regulatory frameworks. A detailed techno-economic analysis evaluates these scenarios based on energy production, cost savings, payback periods, and energy self-sufficiency. The findings indicate that net metering and net billing offer the highest cost savings and the shortest payback periods (∼3 years). While the zero-export strategy with battery storage enhances energy self-sufficiency by up to 70%, it requires a higher upfront investment. The sell-all-buy-all scenario supports larger system sizes, achieving a low levelized cost of electricity (0.0696 USD/kWh) and a net present value of 619 USD. Additionally, the study identifies a critical feed-in tariff threshold of 0.055 USD/kWh, at which net billing becomes as financially attractive as net metering. Here, these insights offer valuable recommendations for policymakers to optimize net billing rates and TOU tariffs, promoting the expansion of Jordan's renewable energy sector.

Battery storage↗

DOE OSTI2025

Techno-economic analysis of sugarcane bagasse and straw conversion into cellulosic ethanol via consolidated bioprocessing

Cellulosic biofuels offer a sustainable alternative to fossil fuels and a means to mitigate climate change. Consolidated bioprocessing (CBP) featuring engineered thermophilic bacteria, combined with mechanical disruption during fermentation (cotreatment), has potential to lower production costs compared to featuring thermochemical pretreatment and added cellulase. A techno-economic analysis was conducted (230 million L ethanol/year) from sugarcane bagasse and straw at stand-alone facilities generating electricity from residues. Three scenarios were evaluated: Conventional, featuring hydrothermal pretreatment, fungal cellulase, and yeast fermentation (current commercial standard); Mid-term CBP, relying on bagasse solubilization without pretreatment or cotreatment; and Mature CBP, incorporating cotreatment but no pretreatment. Results for these scenarios in this order were: fixed capital investment (CapEx) $\$$589M, $\$$658M, and $\$$472M; net annual revenue (EBITDA) $\$$56M, $\$$96M, and $\$$94M; and minimum ethanol selling price 0.73, 0.61, and 0.48 US$\$$/L. Payback periods were 10.5, 6.9, and 5.1 years, while all scenarios showed <5 years at European prices for scales >100M L/year. Sensitivity and risk analysis highlighted ethanol price as the most critical variable. It is notable that Mid-term CBP had shorter payback times and better overall economic feasibility compared to Conventional. Our results underscore opportunities for research-driven innovation on low-cost cellulosic ethanol technologies in Brazil and elsewhere.

Consolidated bioprocessing↗

DOE OSTI2024

Techno-economic analysis of renewable energy generation at the South Pole

Transitioning from fossil-fuel power generation to renewable energy generation and energy storage in remote locations has the potential to reduce both carbon emissions and cost. Here, this study presents a techno-economic analysis for implementation of a hybrid renewable energy system at the South Pole in Antarctica, which currently hosts several high-energy physics experiments with nontrivial power needs. A tailored model of resource availability and economics for solar photovoltaics, wind turbine generators, lithium-ion energy storage, and long-duration energy storage at this site is explored in different combinations with and without existing diesel energy generation. The Renewable Energy Integration and Optimization (REopt) platform is used to determine the optimal system component sizing and the associated system economics and environmental benefit. We find that the least-cost system includes all three energy generation sources and lithium-ion energy storage. For an example steady-state load of 170 kW, this hybrid system includes 180 kW-DC of photovoltaic panels, 570 kW of wind turbines, and a 3.4 MWh lithium-ion battery energy storage system. This system reduces diesel consumption by 95% compared to an all -diesel configuration, resulting in approximately 1200 metric tons of carbon footprint avoided annually. Over the course of a 15-year analysis period the reduced diesel usage leads to a net savings of 57 million United States dollars, with a time to payback of approximately two years. All the scenarios modeled show that the transition to renewables is highly cost effective under the unique economics and constraints of this extremely remote site.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2018

Thermoeconomic analysis of residential rooftop photovoltaic systems with integrated energy storage and resulting impacts on electrical distribution networks

This paper investigates residential rooftop photovoltaic (PV) systems for long-term thermoeconomic benefits from PV homeowners’ perspectives and for impacts on the electrical distribution network from grid operators’ perspectives. The costs of generating electricity from grid-connected PV systems are studied with and without energy storage at the PV homeowners’ sites. Three selling scenarios for excess PV energy conversion are considered: net metering, wholesale pricing, and no payback. PV systems in Utah are utilized as case studies in this analysis. The presence of PV systems gives homeowners economic benefits such as reduced annual electricity bills. However, the levelized costs of electricity are considerably higher than the weighted electricity price in Utah. Currently, the addition of energy storage only benefits customers in Utah under the no payback policy. The impacts of PV systems toward electrical distribution networks are then studied on a distribution test system. Excess PV generation from residential PV systems causes voltage rise in the electrical distribution network. The results from this paper can educate consumers about the lifetime benefit of integrating solar energy into their homes. For grid operators, residential PV systems with energy storage can reduce the negative impacts on the grid compared with high PV penetration alone.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2014

An easy-to-fabricate low-temperature TiO{sub 2} electron collection layer for high efficiency planar heterojunction perovskite solar cells

Organometal trihalide perovskite solar cells arguably represent the most auspicious new photovoltaic technology so far, as they possess an astonishing combination of properties. The impressive and brisk advances achieved so far bring forth highly efficient and solution processable solar cells, holding great promise to grow into a mature technology that is ready to be embedded on a large scale. However, the vast majority of state-of-the-art perovskite solar cells contains a dense TiO{sub 2} electron collection layer that requires a high temperature treatment (>450 °C), which obstructs the road towards roll-to-roll processing on flexible foils that can withstand no more than ∼150 °C. Furthermore, this high temperature treatment leads to an overall increased energy payback time and cumulative energy demand for this emerging photovoltaic technology. Here we present the implementation of an alternative TiO{sub 2} layer formed from an easily prepared nanoparticle dispersion, with annealing needs well within reach of roll-to-roll processing, making this technology also appealing from the energy payback aspect. Chemical and morphological analysis allows to understand and optimize the processing conditions of the TiO{sub 2} layer, finally resulting in a maximum obtained efficiency of 13.6% for a planar heterojunction solar cell within an ITO/TiO{sub 2}/CH{sub 3}NH{sub 3}PbI{sub 3-x}Cl{sub x}poly(3-hexylthiophene)/Ag architecture.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Leaving in the lead: Priorities for perovskite photovoltaics

The need for moving electricity generation to a sustainable model requires the development of low cost ubiquitous photovoltaics (PVs) to harvest the planet’s primary energy source, the Sun. Building upon the successes of Si-based and CdTe-based PV technologies, PVs with lower-embodied energy and requiring lower carbon dioxide equivalent to produce will be required to meet long-term sustainability goals. In particular, thin-film technologies, such as high-efficiency metal halide perovskite (MHP) PV modules, provide avenues to reduced embodied energy, lower energy payback times, and enabling energy-dense tandems [H. M. Wikoff et al., Joule 6(7), 1710–1725 (2022) and V. Fthenakis, Renewable Sustainable Energy Rev. 13(9), 2746–2750 (2009)]. The ability to improve efficiency and lower energy payback time of next generation thin-film PV modules is a critical foundation for green H2 and electrification more broadly. In this regard, Pb-based MHP-PVs have separated themselves as a result of the high-efficiencies that can be realized across a range of electronic gaps. Questions regarding Pb-based MHP-PVs that are often asked, as the challenges of efficiency and reliability are met, revolve around the “problem” of the Pb content. Specifically, “does Pb toxicity preclude MHP-PV modules from being deployed at the TW scale?” To provide this sense of scale, in 2021, the United States burned 10.5 quads of coal, with 90% of that used for electricity generation. Given the energy content of coal of 29 MJ/kg and a residual lead content in that coal of 30 mg/kg, electricity generation from coal resulted in more lead emitted into the atmosphere than what would be required to produce over 2 TW of MHP-PV name plate capacity (assuming a 20% module efficiency and an ∼700 nm active layer). This amounts to more PV power than has been deployed across all PV technologies and geographies to date. This only includes US coal consumption; the rest of the world would be much larger. This example illustrates the scale of the material usage relative to the energy production. Imagine a power-generation technology that offsets these Pb emissions from coal and essentially sequesters this Pb content between two sheets of impermeable glass. Why should we let Pb’s history of misuse prevent it from being included in next generation PV modules that can enable a sustainable energy future?

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Techno-economic assessment of electricity market potential for co-located hydro-floating PV systems

Abstract—Harnessing renewable energy from diverse sources is paramount for sustainable power systems. Recently, co-located floating PV (FPV) systems present an intriguing prospect in this context. These hybrid systems, blending hydro and solar power, may offer a more consistent electricity output and potential economic advantages. Yet, assessing their actual potential requires a comprehensive techno-economic assessment. In addition, probabilistic price forecasting has recently gained attention in electricity market because decisions based on such predictions can yield significantly higher profits than those made with point forecasts alone. To this end, this paper embarks on a journey to elucidate the electricity market potential of co-located hydro-FPV systems in a probabilistic fashion to investigate the technological merits and economic viability of co-located hydro-FPV under different market structures. Our preliminary findings suggest that LCOE and payback metrics are sensitive not only to different markets but also to different solar incentives. Concurrently, we also observe that the payback period is generally faster with a production tax credit (PTC) than an investment tax credit (ITC). This assessment serves as a cornerstone for understanding the future prospects of co-located hydro-FPV systems in modern electricity markets.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Energy, Exergy, and Emission Analysis on Industrial Air Compressors

Abstract Air compressors, a key fluid power technology, play an essential role in industrial plants and office buildings, hospitals, and other types of facilities. The efficient use of the air compressor is crucial. By controlling unnecessary inefficiencies, high energy consumption can be reduced. This study aims to provide energy and exergy analysis on air compressors for different industries. Detailed case studies were also analyzed. The case study focuses on the energy and exergy analyses of the compressed air system of foundry industries. The results indicate that applying the six improvement recommendations yields significant amounts of energy and cost savings and significant improvements in the system's overall performance. The payback periods for different recommendations are economically feasible and worthwhile to use. The suggested improvement methods can provide cost savings with a low payback period.

Energy & Fuels↗