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DOE OSTI2024

Climate change-resilient snowpack estimation in the Western United States

Abstract In the 21st century, warmer temperatures and changing atmospheric circulation will likely produce unprecedented changes in Western United States snowfall 1–3 , with impacts on the timing, amount, and spatial patterns of snowpack 4–7 . The ~900 snow pillow stations are indispensable to water resource management by measuring snow-water equivalent (SWE) 8,9 in strategic but fixed locations 10,11 . However, this network may not be impacted by climate change in the same way as the surrounding area 12 and thus fail to accurately represent unmeasured locations; climate change thereby threatens our ability to measure the effects of climate change on snow. In this work, we show that maintaining the current peak SWE estimation skill is nonetheless possible. We find that explicitly including spatial correlations—either from gridded observations or learned by the model—improves skill at predicting distributed snowpack from sparse observations by 184%. Existing artificial intelligence methods can be useful tools to harness the many available sources of snowpack information to estimate snowpack in a nonstationary climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1983

The peak electromagnetic power radiated by lightning return strokes

Estimates of the peak electromagnetic (EM) power radiated by return strokes have been made by integrating the Poynting vector of measured fields over an imaginary hemispherical surface that is centered on the lightning source, assuming that ground losses are negligible. Values of the peak EM power from first and subsequent strokes have means and standard deviations of 2 + or - 2 x 10 to the 10th and 3 + or - 4 x 10 to the 9th W, respectively. The average EM power that is radiated by subsequent strokes, at the time of the field peak, is about 2 orders of magnitude larger than the optical power that is radiated by these strokes in the wavelength interval from 0.4 to 1.1 micron; hence an upper limit to the radiative efficiency of a subsequent stroke is of the order of 1 percent or less at this time.

Krider, E. P.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Elucidating microstructural evolution and hardness variation across friction self-piercing riveted Al-7055 using synchrotron X-ray scattering and advanced microscopy techniques

Friction self-piercing riveting (FSPR) is a unique hybrid joining technique that combines the advantages of mechanical interlocking, frictional heat, and solid-state joining (if metallurgically compatible) to produce crack free joints in high strength and/or low-ductility alloys at room temperature. Here, in the current study, Al-7055 sheets were joined using FSPR for lightweight automotive applications and significant microhardness variations were observed across the joint cross-section. A detailed microstructural characterization at multiple length scales was carried out using advanced electron microscopy and X-ray scattering techniques to provide a fundamental understanding of the process-structure-property relationships. The relative contributions of microstructural characteristics at various length scales (i.e., grain size, dislocation density, solute concentration, precipitate nature) to strengthening were estimated using existent formulations (i.e., Hall-Petch, Taylor, precipitate bypass/shear equations) and correlated to the observed microhardness values across different regions. Small-angle X-ray scattering and scanning transmission electron microscopy revealed significant changes in the size and volume fraction of precipitate species, i.e., GP-I Zones, η′, and Mg/Zn solute co-clusters, depending on the process region. It was observed that the dissolution of the small η′/GP-I zones (T ∼ 150–200 °C) in the heat-affected zone were the key reason for the hardness drop. Further, it was shown that solid-solution, dislocation, grain size and solute co-cluster strengthening played a key role in the thermo-mechanically affected zone and grain-refined zone (GRZ). Finally, these observations were leveraged along with the Zener-Holloman relationship and grain size in the GRZ to estimate the peak joining temperature of the GRZ (∼ 350 °C) near the steel rivet.

aluminum 7xxx alloy↗

NASA NTRS1975

Utilization of LANDSAT monitoring capabilities for snowcover depletion analysis

LANDSAT images for three snowmelt seasons were utilized to map and analyze snowcover depletion on a small river basin in southeastern Wyoming. Results indicate that snowcover-runoff curves established from repetitive LANDSAT coverage may be used in conjunction with streamflow data to provide low-cost seasonal runoff forecasts having a high degree of accuracy. Additionally, detectable variations within a snowpack might provide temporal estimates of peak flows.

Thompson, A. G.↗

NASA NTRS1976

Heat-transfer distributions on a 0.013-scale shuttle solid rocket booster at Mach 3.70 and angles of attack from 0 deg to 180 deg

An experimental investigation was conducted in the Langley Unitary Plan wind tunnel to estimate the peak aerodynamic heating on the space shuttle solid rocket booster during the descent phase of its flight. Heat transfer measurements were obtained using 0.013 scale models instrumented with thermocouples at a Mach number of 3.70, Reynolds number per meter of 11.48 million, and angles of attack from 0 to 180 deg. At angles of attack of 0 and 180 deg, heat transfer measurements on the cylindrical section of the model between the conical nose and ring interaction region were in good agreement with flat plate strip theory for laminar and turbulent flow. At angles of attack up to 30 deg, measurements on this section of the model were in good agreement with laminar swept-cylinder theory, whereas at angles of attack from 120 to 180 deg, the measurements were in good agreement with turbulent swept-cylinder theory. The good agreement with turbulent theory indicated that large flow disturbances created by the nozzle and afterbody flare at these large angles of attack influenced the downstream heating primarily by promoting boundary layer transition. Measurements obtained at 90 deg angle of attack were indicative of laminar flow.

Lamb, M.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Thunderstorm vertical velocities and mass flux estimated from satellite data

Infrared geosynchronous satellite data with an interval of five minutes between images are used to estimate thunderstorm top ascent rates on two case study days. A mean vertical velocity of 3.5/ms for 19 clouds is calculated at a height of 8.7 km. This upward motion is representative of an area of approximately 10km on a side. Thunderstorm mass flux of approximately 2x10 to the 11th power/gs is calculated, which compares favorably with previous estimates. There is a significant difference in the mean calculated vertical velocity between elements associated with severe weather reports (w bar=4.6/ms) and those with no such reports (2.5/ms). Calculations were made using a velocity profile for an axially symmetric jet to estimate the peak updraft velocity. For the largest observed w value of 7.8/ms the calculation indicates a peak updraft of approximately 50/ms.

Adler, R. F.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Thunderstorm vertical velocities estimated from satellite data

Infrared geosynchronous satellite data with an interval of 5 min between images are used to estimate thunderstorm top ascent rates on two case study days. A mean vertical velocity of 3.4 m/sec for 23 clouds is calculated at a height of 8.7 km. This upward motion is representative of an area of approximately 10 km on a side. Thunderstorm mass flux of approximately 2 times 10 to the 8th power kg/sec is calculated, which compares favorably with previous estimates. There is a significant difference in the mean calculated vertical velocity between elements associated with severe weather reports (omega = 4.9 m/sec) and those with no such reports (2.4 m/sec). Calculations were made using a velocity profile for an axially symmetric jet to estimate the peak updraft velocity. For the largest observed omega value of 7.8 m/sec the calculation indicates a peak updraft of approximately 50 m/sec.

Adler, R. F.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Elastic body dynamics

Most of the structural dynamics resources allocated to the Space Shuttle are concentrated on the flight events which result in critical structural loads and/or minimum control stability margins. Since these events are primarily sub-orbital, the data base of interest to those involved in orbital experimentation is somewhat limited. A brief discussion of available data is given. Although estimates of peak acceleration levels and the associated frequency spectrum in the payload bay due to thrusting of the various control system thrusters were made, the actual levels and time histories must be based on updated structural math models and a detailed knowledge of the input forcing functions.

Holder, B. W.↗

NASA NTRS1983

On the shock cell structure and noise of supersonic jets

A linear solution modeling the shock cell structure of an axisymmetric supersonic jet operated at off-design conditions is developed by the method of multiple-scales. The model solution takes into account the gradual spatial change of the mean flow in the downstream direction. Turbulence in the mixing layer of the jet has the tendency of smoothing out the sharp velocity and density gradients induced by the shocks. To simulate this effect, eddy viscosity terms are incorporated in the model. It is known that the interaction between the quasi-periodic shock cells and the downstream propagating large turbulence structures in the mixing layer of the jet is responsible for the generation of broadband shock associated noise. Experimentally, the dominant part of this noise has been found to originate from the part of the jet near the end of the potential core. Calculated shock cell spacing at the end of the jet core according to the present model is used to estimate the peak frequencies of the shock associated noise for a range of observation angles. Very favorable agreement with experimental measurements is found.

Tam, C. K. W.↗

NASA NTRS1984

A blade loss response spectrum for flexible rotor systems

A shock spectrum procedure is developed to estimate the peak displacement response of linear flexible rotor-bearing systems sugjected to a step change in unbalance (i.e., a blade loss). A progressive and a retrograde response spectrum are established. These blade loss response spectra are expressed in a unique non-dimensional form and are functions of the modal damping ratio and the ratio of rotor spin speed to modal damped whirl speed. Modal decomposition using complex modes is utilized to make use of the unique feature of the spectra for the calculation of the peak blade loss displacement response of the rotor system. The procedure is applied to three example systems using several modal superposition strategies. The results of each are compared to true peak displacement obtained by a separate transient response program.

Nelson, H. D.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Variability in the high energy gamma ray emission from Cyg X-3 over a two-year period (1983 - 1984) at E 4 x 10(11) eV

Cygnus X-3 is observed to emit gamma rays with energies in excess of 4 x 10 to the 11th power eV during two out of 9 observational categories over an 18 month time span. The emissions are observed at the 0.6 phase of the characteristic 4.8 hr light curve for this binary system. We estimate a peak flux at phase 0.6 of 5 x 10 to the minus 10th power photons cm-2s-1 at a software threshold of 8 x 10 to the 11th power eV for Oct/Nov 1983. A flux for the June 84 effect cannot be reliably calculated at present due to lack of Monte Carlo simulations for the energy range and spectral region. For the other 7 observational categories the observations are consistent with zero source emission. The light curve would appear to be variable on a time scale of a couple of weeks at these categories. Selection of compact images in accordance with Monte Carlo simulations combined with empirical optimization techniques have led to an enriched gamma ray light curve for the Oct/Nov 1983 data. Selection on the basis of shower orientation, however, has not led to any notable enhancement of the gamma ray content. Individual Cherenko images can be reliably sorted on an event by event basis into either proton-induced or photon-induced showers.

Cawley, M. F.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Pyroxene thermobarometry in LL-group chondrites and implications for parent body metamorphism

Geothermometry based on the compositions of clinopyroxenes in type 6 and 7 LL chondrites gives coherent results, but the estimated temperatures from coexisting orthopyroxenes are consistently lower than for clinopyroxenes. Orthopyroxene thermometry is suspect because of compositional effects of polymorphic inversions and/or unknown kinetic factors. Lack of clinopyroxene equilibration precludes accurate estimation of peak metamorphic temperatures for type 4 and 5 chondrites. There is no apparent correlation between Al content (a pressure-dependent variable) and equilibration temperature in chondritic pyroxenes. This finding, which is at variance with a previously published conclusion that temperature and pressure are correlated in metamorphosed chondrites, may have important implications for asteroid thermal models.

Mcsween, Harry Y., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1994

New jovian ring?

We follow the orbital evolution of small dust particles generated from the break up of comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 (SL9). In addition to the usual perturbations, we also consider electrostatic charging and the consequent magnetospheric effects. We show, that in about ten years following the break up, a small fraction of the dust will settle into orbits well inside the magnetosphere. The forming ring will be comprised of dust particles with radii in the range of 1.5 less than alpha less than 2.5 micrometers that follow retrograde orbits in the radial range of 4.5 less than r less than 6 R(sub J). We estimate the peak optical depth of this new ring in the range of 10(exp -8) less than tau(sub max) less than 2 x 10(exp -6).

Horanyi, Mihaly↗

NASA NTRS2004

Activities of NASA's Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) in the Assessment of Subsonic Aircraft Impact

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimated a peak increase in ozone ranging from 7-12 ppbv (zonal and annual average, and relative to a baseline with no aircraft), due to the subsonic aircraft in the year 2015, corresponding to aircraft emissions of 1.3 TgN/year. This range of values presumably reflects differences in model input (e.g., chemical mechanism, ground emission fluxes, and meteorological fields), and algorithms. The model implemented by the Global Modeling Initiative allows testing the impact of individual model components on the assessment calculations. We present results of the impact of doubling the 1995 aircraft emissions of NOx, corresponding to an extra 0.56 TgN/year, utilizing meteorological data from NASA's Data Assimilation Office (DAO), the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), and the Middle Atmosphere Community Climate Model, version 3 (MACCM3). Comparison of results to observations can be used to assess the model performance. Peak ozone perturbations ranging from 1.7 to 2.2 ppbv of ozone are calculated using the different fields. These correspond to increases in total tropospheric ozone ranging from 3.3 to 4.1 Tg/Os. These perturbations are consistent with the IPCC results, due to the difference in aircraft emissions. However, the range of values calculated is much smaller than in IPCC.

Rodriquez, J. M.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Dust Production of Comet 21P/Giacobini-Zinner using Broadband Photometry

Presented here are results from photometric analysis on broadband images taken of Comet 21P/Giacobini-Zinner from May 24, 2011 to October 24, 2011. As the parent body of the Draconids, a meteor shower known for outbursting, 21P was studied for its dust production activity, Afrho, focusing on how it changes with heliocentric distance. An expected increase in dust production with a decrease in heliocentric distance was observed. The comet went from heliocentric distance of 3.05 AU to 1.77 AU during the observed time that corresponded to an apparent magnitude of 19.61 to 15.72 and Afrho of 16.48 cm to 284.17 cm. These values can be extrapolated to estimate a peak Afrho value at perihelion of 3824 cm. The images were obtained using a 0.5-meter f/8.1 Ritchey-Chretien telescope located in Mayhill, New Mexico.

Blaauw, Rhiannon C.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Parametric Thermal Soak Model for Earth Entry Vehicles

The analysis and design of an Earth Entry Vehicle (EEV) is multidisciplinary in nature, requiring the application many disciplines. An integrated tool called Multi Mission System Analysis for Planetary Entry Descent and Landing or M-SAPE is being developed as part of Entry Vehicle Technology project under In-Space Technology program. Integration of a multidisciplinary problem is a challenging task. Automation of the execution process and data transfer among disciplines can be accomplished to provide significant benefits. Thermal soak analysis and temperature predictions of various interior components of entry vehicle, including the impact foam and payload container are part of the solution that M-SAPE will offer to spacecraft designers. The present paper focuses on the thermal soak analysis of an entry vehicle design based on the Mars Sample Return entry vehicle geometry and discusses a technical approach to develop parametric models for thermal soak analysis that will be integrated into M-SAPE. One of the main objectives is to be able to identify the important parameters and to develop correlation coefficients so that, for a given trajectory, can estimate the peak payload temperature based on relevant trajectory parameters and vehicle geometry. The models are being developed for two primary thermal protection (TPS) materials: 1) carbon phenolic that was used for Galileo and Pioneer Venus probes and, 2) Phenolic Impregnated Carbon Ablator (PICA), TPS material for Mars Science Lab mission. Several representative trajectories were selected from a very large trade space to include in the thermal analysis in order to develop an effective parametric thermal soak model. The selected trajectories covered a wide range of heatload and heatflux combinations. Non-linear, fully transient, thermal finite element simulations were performed for the selected trajectories to generate the temperature histories at the interior of the vehicle. Figure 1 shows the finite element model that was used for the simulations. The results indicate that it takes several hours for the thermal energy to soak into the interior of the vehicle and achieve maximum payload temperatures. In addition, a strong correlation between the heatload and peak payload container temperature is observed that will help establishing the parametric thermal soak model.

Agrawal, Parul↗

NASA NTRS2013

Dust in the Solar System - Properties and Origins

Interplanetary dust pervades the inner Solar System, giving rise to a prominent glow above the horizon at sunrise and sunset known as the zodiacal light. This dust derives from the disintegration of comets as they approach the Sun and from collisions among main-belt asteroids. The Earth accretes roughly 4x10(exp 6) kg/year of 1 - 1,000 micron dust particles as they spiral into the Sun under the influence of Poynting-Robertson drag and solar wind drag. Samples of these grains have been collected from deep sea sediments, Antarctic ice and by high-altitude aircraft and balloon flights. Interplanetary dust particles (IDPs) collected in the stratosphere have been classified by their IR spectra into olivine, pyroxene, and hydrated silicate-dominated classes. Most IDPs have bulk major and minor element abundances that are similar to carbonaceous chondrite meteorites. Hydrated silicate-rich IDPs are thought to derive from asteroids based on their mineralogy and low atmospheric entry velocities estimated from peak temperatures reached during atmospheric entry. Anhydrous IDPs are typically aggregates of 0.1 - approx. 1 micron Mg-rich olivine and pyroxene, amorphous silicates (GEMS), Fe, Nisulfides and rare spinel and oxides bound together by carbonaceous material. These IDPs are often argued to derive from comets based on compositional similarities and high atmospheric entry velocities that imply high eccentricity orbits. Infrared spectra obtained from anhydrous IDPs closely match remote IR spectra obtained from comets. The most primitive (anhydrous) IDPs appear to have escaped the parent-body thermal and aqueous alteration that has affected meteorites. These samples thus consist entirely of grains that formed in the ancient solar nebula and pre-solar interstellar and circumstellar environments. Isotopic studies of IDPs have identified silicate stardust grains that formed in the outflows of red giant and asymptotic giant branch stars and supernovae]. These stardust grains include both amorphous and crystalline silicates. The organic matter in these samples also exhibits highly anomalous H, C, and N isotopic compositions that are consistent with formation in low temperature environments at the outermost regions of the solar nebula or presolar cold molecular cloud. The scientific frontiers for these samples include working toward a better understanding of the origins of the solar system amorphous and crystalline grains in IDPs and the very challenging task of determining the chemical composition of sub-micron organic grains. Laboratory studies of ancient and present-day dust in the Solar System thus reveal in exquisite detail the chemistry, mineralogy and isotopic properties of materials that derive from a range of astrophysical environments. These studies are an important complement to astronomical observations that help to place the laboratory observations into broader context.

Messenger, Scott↗

NASA NTRS2015

Deriving Snow-Cover Depletion Curves for Different Spatial Scales from Remote Sensing and Snow Telemetry Data

During the melting of a snowpack, snow water equivalent (SWE) can be correlated to snow-covered area (SCA) once snow-free areas appear, which is when SCA begins to decrease below 100%. This amount of SWE is called the threshold SWE. Daily SWE data from snow telemetry stations were related to SCA derived from moderate-resolution imaging spectro radiometer images to produce snow-cover depletion curves. The snow depletion curves were created for an 80,000 sq km domain across southern Wyoming and northern Colorado encompassing 54 snow telemetry stations. Eight yearly snow depletion curves were compared, and it is shown that the slope of each is a function of the amount of snow received. Snow-cover depletion curves were also derived for all the individual stations, for which the threshold SWE could be estimated from peak SWE and the topography around each station. A stations peak SWE was much more important than the main topographic variables that included location, elevation, slope, and modelled clear sky solar radiation. The threshold SWE mostly illustrated inter-annual consistency.

snow depletion curves↗