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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2014

Using Ensemble Short-Term Initialized Coupled NASA GEOS5 Climate Model Integrations to Study Convective Bias Growth

The representation of convective processes, particularly deep convection in the tropics, remains a persistent problem in climate models. In fact structural biases in the distribution of tropical rainfall in the CMIP5 models is hardly different than that of the CMIP3 versions. Given that regional climate change at higher latitudes is sensitive to the configuration of tropical forcing, this persistent bias is a major issue for the credibility of climate change projections. In this study we use model output from integrations of the NASA Global Earth Observing System Five (GEOS5) climate modeling system to study the evolution of biases in the location and intensity of convective processes. We take advantage of a series of hindcast experiments done in support of the US North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) initiative. For these experiments a nine-month forecast using a coupled model configuration is made approximately every five days over the past 30 years. Each forecast is started with an updated analysis of the ocean, atmosphere and land states. For a given calendar month we have approximately 180 forecasts with daily means of various quantities. These forecasts can be averaged to essentially remove "weather scales" and highlight systematic errors as they evolve. Our primary question is to ask how the spatial structure of daily mean precipitation over the tropics evolves from the initial state and what physical processes are involved. Errors in parameterized convection, various water and energy fluxes and the divergent circulation are found to set up on fast time scales (order five days) compared to errors in the ocean, although SST changes can be non-negligible over that time. For the month of June the difference between forecast day five versus day zero precipitation looks quite similar to the difference between the June precipitation climatology and that from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). We focus much of our analysis on the influence of SST gradients, associated PBL baroclinicity enabled by turbulent mixing, the ensuing PBL moisture convergence, and how changes in these processes relate to convective precipitation bias growth over this short period.

Cohen, Charlie↗
NASA NTRS2016

Assessment of Arctic and Antarctic Sea Ice Predictability in CMIP5 Decadal Hindcasts

This paper examines the ability of coupled global climate models to predict decadal variability of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice. We analyze decadal hindcasts/predictions of 11 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models. Decadal hindcasts exhibit a large multimodel spread in the simulated sea ice extent, with some models deviating significantly from the observations as the predicted ice extent quickly drifts away from the initial constraint. The anomaly correlation analysis between the decadal hindcast and observed sea ice suggests that in the Arctic, for most models, the areas showing significant predictive skill become broader associated with increasing lead times. This area expansion is largely because nearly all the models are capable of predicting the observed decreasing Arctic sea ice cover. Sea ice extent in the North Pacific has better predictive skill than that in the North Atlantic (particularly at a lead time of 3-7 years), but there is a reemerging predictive skill in the North Atlantic at a lead time of 6-8 years. In contrast to the Arctic, Antarctic sea ice decadal hindcasts do not show broad predictive skill at any timescales, and there is no obvious improvement linking the areal extent of significant predictive skill to lead time increase. This might be because nearly all the models predict a retreating Antarctic sea ice cover, opposite to the observations. For the Arctic, the predictive skill of the multi-model ensemble mean outperforms most models and the persistence prediction at longer timescales, which is not the case for the Antarctic. Overall, for the Arctic, initialized decadal hindcasts show improved predictive skill compared to uninitialized simulations, although this improvement is not present in the Antarctic.

sea ice↗
NASA NTRS1990

Modeling reality

Although powerful computers have allowed complex physical and manmade hardware systems to be modeled successfully, we have encountered persistent problems with the reliability of computer models for systems involving human learning, human action, and human organizations. This is not a misfortune; unlike physical and manmade systems, human systems do not operate under a fixed set of laws. The rules governing the actions allowable in the system can be changed without warning at any moment, and can evolve over time. That the governing laws are inherently unpredictable raises serious questions about the reliability of models when applied to human situations. In these domains, computers are better used, not for prediction and planning, but for aiding humans. Examples are systems that help humans speculate about possible futures, offer advice about possible actions in a domain, systems that gather information from the networks, and systems that track and support work flows in organizations.

Denning, Peter J.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Evaluation of ACCMIP Outgoing Longwave Radiation from Tropospheric Ozone Using TES Satellite Observations.

We use simultaneous observations of tropospheric ozone and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) sensitivity to tropospheric ozone from the Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) to evaluate model tropospheric ozone and its effect on OLR simulated by a suite of chemistry-climate models that participated in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). The ensemble mean of ACCMIP models show a persistent but modest tropospheric ozone low bias (5-20 ppb) in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) and modest high bias (5-10 ppb) in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) relative to TES ozone for 2005-2010. These ozone biases have a significant impact on the OLR. Using TES instantaneous radiative kernels (IRK), we show that the ACCMIP ensemble mean tropospheric ozone low bias leads up to 120mW/ sq. m OLR high bias locally but zonally compensating errors reduce the global OLR high bias to 39+/- 41mW/ sq. m relative to TES data. We show that there is a correlation (Sq. R = 0.59) between the magnitude of the ACCMIP OLR bias and the deviation of the ACCMIP preindustrial to present day (1750-2010) ozone radiative forcing (RF) from the ensemble ozone RF mean. However, this correlation is driven primarily by models whose absolute OLR bias from tropospheric ozone exceeds 100mW/ sq. m. Removing these models leads to a mean ozone radiative forcing of 394+/- 42mW/ sq. m. The mean is about the same and the standard deviation is about 30% lower than an ensemble ozone RF of 384 +/- 60mW/ sq. m derived from 14 of the 16 ACCMIP models reported in a companion ACCMIP study. These results point towards a profitable direction of combining satellite observations and chemistry-climate model simulations to reduce uncertainty in ozone radiative forcing.

troposphere↗
NASA NTRS1999

Data Assimilation in the Presence of Forecast Bias: The GEOS Moisture Analysis

We describe the application of the unbiased sequential analysis algorithm developed by Dee and da Silva (1998) to the GEOS DAS moisture analysis. The algorithm estimates the persistent component of model error using rawinsonde observations and adjusts the first-guess moisture field accordingly. Results of two seasonal data assimilation cycles show that moisture analysis bias is almost completely eliminated in all observed regions. The improved analyses cause a sizable reduction in the 6h-forecast bias and a marginal improvement in the error standard deviations.

Dee, Dick P.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Eddy Compensation Dampens Southern Ocean Sea Surface Temperature Response to Westerly Wind Trends

Anthropogenic influences have led to a strengthening and poleward shift of westerly winds over the Southern Ocean (SO), especially during austral summer. We use observations, an idealized eddy‐resolving ocean‐sea ice channel model, and a global coupled model to explore the SO response to a step‐change in westerly winds. Previous work hypothesized a two timescale response for sea surface temperature. Initially, Ekman transport cools the surface before sustained upwelling causes warming on decadal timescales. The fast response is robust across our models and the observations: we find Ekman‐driven cooling in the mixed layer, mixing‐driven warming below the mixed layer, and a small upwelling‐driven warming at the temperature inversion. The long‐term response is inaccessible from observations. Neither of our models shows a persistent upwelling anomaly, or long‐term, upwelling‐driven subsurface warming. Mesoscale eddies act to oppose the anomalous wind‐driven upwelling, through a process known as eddy compensation, thereby preventing long‐term warming.

Southern Annular Mode↗
NASA NTRS2019

Magnetars as Astrophysical Laboratories of Extreme Quantum Electrodynamics: The Case for a Compton Telescope

A next generation of Compton and pair telescopes that improve MeV-band detection sensitivity by more than a decade beyond current instrumental capabilities will open up new insights into a variety of astrophysical source classes. Among these are magnetars, the most highly magnetic of the neutron star zoo, which will serve as a prime science target for a new mission surveying the MeV window. This paper outlines the core questions pertaining to magnetars that can be addressed by such a technology. These range from global magnetar geometry and population trends, to incisive probes of hard X-ray emission locales, to providing cosmic laboratories for spectral and polarimetric testing of exotic predictions of QED, principally the prediction of the splitting of photons and magnetic pair creation. Such fundamental physics cannot yet be discerned in terrestrial experiments. State of the art modeling of the persistent hard X-ray tail emission in magnetars is presented to outline the case for powerful diagnostics using Compton polarimeters. The case highlights an inter-disciplinary opportunity to seed discovery at the interface between astronomy and physics.

Wadiasingh, Zorawar↗
NASA NTRS2020

Forecasting Global Fire Emissions on Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Time Scales

Fire emissions of gases and aerosols alter atmospheric composition and have substantial impacts on climate, ecosystem function, and human health. Warming climate and human expansion in fire‐prone landscapes exacerbate fire impacts and call for more effective management tools. Here we developed a global fire forecasting system that predicts monthly emissions using past fire data and climate variables for lead times of 1 to 6 months. Using monthly fire emissions from the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED) as the prediction target, we fit a statistical time series model, the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model with eXogenous variables (ARIMAX), in over 1,300 different fire regions. Optimized parameters were then used to forecast future emissions. The forecast system took into account information about region‐specific seasonality, long‐term trends, recent fire observations, and climate drivers representing both large‐scale climate variability and local fire weather. We cross‐validated the forecast skill of the system with different combinations of predictors and forecast lead times. The reference model, which combined endogenous and exogenous predictors with a 1 month forecast lead time, explained 52% of the variability in the global fire emissions anomaly, considerably exceeding the performance of a reference model that assumed persistent emissions during the forecast period. The system also successfully resolved detailed spatial patterns of fire emissions anomalies in regions with significant fire activity. This study bridges the gap between the efforts of near‐real‐time fire forecasts and seasonal fire outlooks and represents a step toward establishing an operational global fire, smoke, and carbon cycle forecasting system.

vapor pressure↗
NASA NTRS2010

Concepts and Challenges for Environmentally Friendly En Route Operations

A flight trajectory optimization algorithm with fuel and contrails models, which develops alternative flight paths, provides policy makers the necessary data to make tradeoffs between persistent contrails mitigation and aircraft fuel consumption. This study develops an algorithm that calculates wind-optimal trajectories for cruising aircraft while avoiding the regions of airspace prone to persistent contrails formation. The optimal trajectory is derived using Singular Perturbation Method. The regions of airspace favorable to persistent contrails formation are modeled as high-risk areas that aircraft should avoid and are adjustable. The tradeoffs between persistent contrails formation and additional travel time are investigated for wind-optimal trajectories and various contrails-avoidance trajectories at 10 different cruising altitudes for flights departing from Chicago and San Diego to New York. The additional travel times required for avoiding 100% persistent contrails formation at various flight altitudes ranged from approximately 0% to 4.3% for flights from Chicago to New York. For flights between San Diego and New York, additional traveling times vary between 1.3% and 5% depending on the cruise altitude and the percentage of contrail avoidance. Talk will present the results of aircraft fuel consumptions that are proportional to the travel time for cruising aircraft.

Sridhar, Banavar↗
NASA NTRS1977

Evolution of open magnetic structures on the sun - The Skylab period

High-resolution harmonic analysis of the measured photospheric magnetic field of the sun is used to construct models of open magnetic structures over a period of 11 solar rotations. The models successfully reproduce the surface location and topology of all coronal holes during the Skylab period. In addition, there is persistent evidence in the models that open field lines are associated with active regions in a systematic way. These associations are listed for the period studied; they suggest that open field lines are a basic feature of solar magnetism. Specific examples of the evolution of coronal holes and of calculated open structures are presented. Quantitative study of the measured field strength within and neighboring a hole confirms the fact that coronal hole regions are indistinguishable by local magnetic properties. However, the calculated field strengths at the footpoints of open field lines within coronal holes show distinct evolutionary patterns and may indicate that, at least in young coronal holes, a significant amount of magnetic flux is closed. Problems of studying magnetic field divergence by using these models are discussed.

Levine, R. H.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Toward large eddy simulation of turbulent flow over an airfoil

The flow field over an airfoil contains several distinct flow characteristics, e.g. laminar, transitional, turbulent boundary layer flow, flow separation, unstable free shear layers, and a wake. This diversity of flow regimes taxes the presently available Reynolds averaged turbulence models. Such models are generally tuned to predict a particular flow regime, and adjustments are necessary for the prediction of a different flow regime. Similar difficulties are likely to emerge when the large eddy simulation technique is applied with the widely used Smagorinsky model. This model has not been successful in correctly representing different turbulent flow fields with a single universal constant and has an incorrect near-wall behavior. Germano et al. (1991) and Ghosal, Lund & Moin have developed a new subgrid-scale model, the dynamic model, which is very promising in alleviating many of the persistent inadequacies of the Smagorinsky model: the model coefficient is computed dynamically as the calculation progresses rather than input a priori. The model has been remarkably successful in prediction of several turbulent and transitional flows. We plan to simulate turbulent flow over a '2D' airfoil using the large eddy simulation technique. Our primary objective is to assess the performance of the newly developed dynamic subgrid-scale model for computation of complex flows about aircraft components and to compare the results with those obtained using the Reynolds average approach and experiments. The present computation represents the first application of large eddy simulation to a flow of aeronautical interest and a key demonstration of the capabilities of the large eddy simulation technique.

Choi, Haecheon↗
NASA NTRS2021

Photospheric Radius Expansion and a Double-peaked Type-I X-Ray Burst from GRS 1741.9-2853

We present an analysis of two type-I X-ray bursts observed by NuSTAR originating from the very faint transient neutron star (NS) low-mass X-ray binary GRS 1741.9–2853 during a period of outburst in 2020 May. We show that the persistent emission can be modeled as an absorbed, Comptonized blackbody in addition to Fe Kα emission, which can be attributed to relativistic disk reflection. We measure a persistent bolometric, unabsorbed luminosity of L(bol) = 7.03(+0.04, -0.05) x 10^(36) erg/s, assuming a distance of 7 kpc, corresponding to an Eddington ratio of 4.5%. This persistent luminosity combined with light-curve analysis leads us to infer that the bursts were the result of pure He burning rather than mixed H/He burning. Time-resolved spectroscopy reveals that the bolometric flux of the first burst exhibits a double-peaked structure, placing the source within a small population of accreting NSs that exhibit multiple-peaked type-I X-ray bursts. We find that the second, brighter burst shows evidence for photospheric radius expansion (PRE) and that at its peak, this PRE event had an unabsorbed bolometric flux of F(peak)= 2.94 (+0.28, -0.26) 10^(-8) erg/sq.cm s. This yields a new distance estimate of d = 9.0 ± 0.5 kpc, assuming that this corresponds to the Eddington limit for pure He burning on the surface of a canonical NS. Additionally, we performed a detailed timing analysis that failed to find evidence for quasi-periodic oscillations or burst oscillations, and we place an upper limit of 16% on the rms variability around 589 Hz, the frequency at which oscillations have previously been reported.

Sean N. Pike↗
NASA NTRS2002

Predictability Associated with Land Surface Moisture States: Studies with the NSIPP System

Hydrologists have long speculated that soil moisture information can be used to increase skill in monthly to seasonal forecast systems. For this to be true, though, three conditions must be satisfied: (1) an imposed initial soil moisture anomaly in the forecast system must have some memory, so that it persists into the forecast period; (2) the modeled atmosphere must respond in a predictable way to the persisted anomaly; and (3) the forecast model must correctly represent both the soil moisture memory and the atmospheric response as they occur in nature. In this short paper, we review some recent work at NSIPP (NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project) that addresses all three conditions.

Koster, R. D.↗
NASA NTRS1984

A flying superconducting magnet and cryostat for magnetic suspension of wind-tunnel models

The engineering practicality of a persistent high-field superconducting solenoid cryostat as a magnetic suspension and balance system (MSBS) for wind-tunnel testing of aircraft and missile models is examined. The test apparatus is a simple solenoid of filamentary NbTi superconductor with a cupronickel matrix. The apparatus, with a length-to-diameter ratio of 6 to 1 and a radius of 32 mm, used a 0.25 mm wire with a critical current of 27 A in an external field of 6 T. The total heat inleak of 150 mW was achieved. Helium boiloff rates were tested over a range of operating conditions, including pitch attitudes from 10 deg nose down to 90 deg nose up; the rate was estimated as low, but the aerodynamic acceptability of venting gaseous helium has not been determined. It is shown that the effectiveness of the concept increases with increasing scale, and performance in excess of that of conventional ferromagnets is achievable with reduction in size and costs, and with aptness to transonic wind-tunnel testing. Detailed specifications and schematics are included.

Britcher, C.↗
NASA NTRS1987

A survey of the cosmic ray diurnal variation during 1973-1979. I - Persistence of solar diurnal variation. II - Application of diffusion-convection model to diurnal anisotropy data

An analysis of data obtained with the vertical underground muon telescope at Embudo, NM shows that the solar diurnal variation in cosmic ray intensity is a persistent phenomenon over the 1973-1979 period. Assuming that the daily fluctuations in the amplitude and phase of the diurnal variation are random perturbations about the mean vector, the relative magnitude of the random component is determined. In the second part, the Diffusion-Convection model of cosmic ray transport is applied to high rigidity particles detected at the earth in order to deduce the behavior of the heliospheric transport parameters between 1973 and 1979. It is suggested that the diurnal variation observed at Embudo during 1979 may require a contribution from the charged particle drifts.

Riker, J. F.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Kepler Mission's Focal Plane Characterization Models Implementation

The Kepler Mission photometer is an unusually complex array of CCDs. A large number of time-varying instrumental and systemic effects must be modeled and removed from the Kepler pixel data to produce light curves of sufficiently high quality for the mission to be successful in its planet-finding objective. After the launch of the spacecraft, many of these effects are difficult to remeasure frequently, and various interpolations over a small number of sample measurements must be used to determine the correct value of a given effect at different points in time. A library of software modules, called Focal Plane Characterization (FC) Models, is the element of the Kepler Science Data Pipeline (hereafter "pipeline") that handles this. FC, or products generated by FC, are used by nearly every element of the SOC processing chain. FC includes Java components: database persistence classes, operations classes, model classes, and data importers; and MATLAB code: model classes, interpolation methods, and wrapper functions. These classes, their interactions, and the database tables they represent, are discussed. This paper describes how these data and the FC software work together to provide the pipeline with the correct values to remove non-photometric effects caused by the photometer and its electronics from the Kepler light curves. The interpolation mathematics is reviewed, as well as the special case of the sky-to-pixel,pixel-to-sky coordinate transformation code, which incorporates a compound model that is unique in the SOC software.

mission↗