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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 55 records · Page 3

Quantifying the propagation of parametric uncertainty on flux balance analysis

Flux balance analysis (FBA) and associated techniques operating on stoichiometric genome-scale metabolic models play a central role in quantifying metabolic flows and constraining feasible phenotypes. At the heart of these methods lie two important assumptions: (i) the biomass precursors and energy requirements neither change in response to growth conditions nor environmental/genetic perturbations, and (ii) metabolite production and consumption rates are equal at all times (i.e., steady-state). Despite the stringency of these two assumptions, FBA has been shown to be surprisingly robust at predicting cellular phenotypes. In this paper, we formally assess the impact of these two assumptions on FBA results by quantifying how uncertainty in biomass reaction coefficients, and departures from steady-state due to temporal fluctuations could propagate to FBA results. In the first case, conditional sampling of parameter space is required to re-weigh the biomass reaction so as the molecular weight remains equal to 1 g mmol –1 , and in the second case, metabolite (and elemental) pool conservation must be imposed under temporally varying conditions. Results confirm the importance of enforcing the aforementioned constraints and explain the robustness of FBA biomass yield predictions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

A strong loss-of-function mutation in RAN1 results in constitutive activation of the ethylene response pathway as well as a rosette-lethal phenotype

A recessive mutation was identified that constitutively activated the ethylene response pathway in Arabidopsis and resulted in a rosette-lethal phenotype. Positional cloning of the gene corresponding to this mutation revealed that it was allelic to responsive to antagonist1 (ran1), a mutation that causes seedlings to respond in a positive manner to what is normally a competitive inhibitor of ethylene binding. In contrast to the previously identified ran1-1 and ran1-2 alleles that are morphologically indistinguishable from wild-type plants, this ran1-3 allele results in a rosette-lethal phenotype. The predicted protein encoded by the RAN1 gene is similar to the Wilson and Menkes disease proteins and yeast Ccc2 protein, which are integral membrane cation-transporting P-type ATPases involved in copper trafficking. Genetic epistasis analysis indicated that RAN1 acts upstream of mutations in the ethylene receptor gene family. However, the rosette-lethal phenotype of ran1-3 was not suppressed by ethylene-insensitive mutants, suggesting that this mutation also affects a non-ethylene-dependent pathway regulating cell expansion. The phenotype of ran1-3 mutants is similar to loss-of-function ethylene receptor mutants, suggesting that RAN1 may be required to form functional ethylene receptors. Furthermore, these results suggest that copper is required not only for ethylene binding but also for the signaling function of the ethylene receptors.

NASA Discipline Plant Biology↗

Predicting stress response and improved protein overproduction in Bacillus subtilis

Abstract Bacillus subtilis is a well-characterized microorganism and a model for the study of Gram-positive bacteria. The bacterium can produce proteins at high densities and yields, which has made it valuable for industrial bioproduction. Like other cell factories, metabolic modeling of B. subtilis has discovered ways to optimize its metabolism toward various applications. The first genome-scale metabolic model (M-model) of B. subtilis was published more than a decade ago and has been applied extensively to understand metabolism, to predict growth phenotypes, and served as a template to reconstruct models for other Gram-positive bacteria. However, M-models are ill-suited to simulate the production and secretion of proteins as well as their proteomic response to stress. Thus, a new generation of metabolic models, known as metabolism and gene expression models (ME-models), has been initiated. Here, we describe the reconstruction and validation of a ME model of B. subtilis , i JT964-ME. This model achieved higher performance scores on the prediction of gene essentiality as compared to the M-model. We successfully validated the model by integrating physiological and omics data associated with gene expression responses to ethanol and salt stress. The model further identified the mechanism by which tryptophan synthesis is upregulated under ethanol stress. Further, we employed i JT964-ME to predict amylase production rates under two different growth conditions. We analyzed these flux distributions and identified key metabolic pathways that permitted the increase in amylase production. Models like i JT964-ME enable the study of proteomic response to stress and the illustrate the potential for optimizing protein production in bacteria.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Understanding protein-complex assembly through grand canonical maximum entropy modeling

Inside a cell, heterotypic proteins assemble in inhomogeneous, crowded systems where the abundance of these proteins vary with cell types. While some protein complexes form putative structures that can be visualized with imaging, there are far more protein complexes that are yet to be solved because of their dynamic associations with one another. Nevertheless, it is possible to infer these protein complexes through a physical model. However, it is often not clear to physicists what kind of data from biology is necessary for such a modeling endeavor. Here, we aim to model these clusters of coarse-grained protein assemblies from multiple subunits through the constraints of interactions among the subunits and the chemical potential of each subunit. We obtained the constraints on the interactions among subunits from the known protein structures. We inferred the chemical potential that dictates the particle number distribution of each protein subunit from the knowledge of protein abundance from experimental data. Guided by the maximum entropy principle, we formulated an inverse statistical mechanical method to infer the distribution of particle numbers from the data of protein abundance as chemical potentials for a grand canonical multicomponent mixture. Using grand canonical Monte Carlo simulations, we captured a distribution of high-order clusters in a protein complex of succinate dehydrogenase with four known subunits. The complexity of hierarchical clusters varies with the relative protein abundance of each subunit in distinctive cell types such as lung, heart, and brain. When the crowding content increases, we observed that crowding stabilizes emergent clusters that do not exist in dilute conditions. We, therefore, proposed a testable hypothesis that the hierarchical complexity of protein clusters on a molecular scale is a plausible biomarker of predicting the phenotypes of a cell.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Leveraging hyperspectral phenotyping for accurate, non-destructive prediction of metabolite profiles in poplar under drought stress

Accurately predicting drought tolerance in woody perennial bioenergy crops is critical for sustainable biomass production under fluctuating precipitation. Hyperspectral imaging (HSI) in the visible-near-infrared (VNIR) and shortwave-infrared (SWIR) ranges offers a promising approach for predicting plant biochemical traits, yet its application in metabolite profiling remains underexplored. We integrated VNIR+SWIR HSI with untargeted metabolomics to investigate drought-induced metabolic shifts in Populus leaves from eight Populus genotypes. Metabolite profiling identified 127 compounds, with 73 showing significant drought responses spanning amino acids (AA), carbohydrates (CHO), phenolic glycosides (PG), organic acids (OA), fatty acids and alcohols (FA), terpenes (T), phenolic metabolites (P), and unclassified metabolites. Spectral analysis revealed consistently higher reflectance across VNIR and SWIR wavelengths in drought-stressed plants, corresponding with increased accumulation of AA and reduced CHO and PG levels. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression modeling identified robust spectral predictors of metabolite concentrations, associating VNIR wavelengths (500–700 nm) predominantly with AA and P, whereas SWIR wavelengths (1680–1700 nm) reliably predicted CHO, OA, and T. Several stable spectral-metabolite associations persisted across the two watering regimes (drought vs. well-watered), highlighting their potential as spectral biomarkers for non-destructive stress monitoring. Minimal genotype-specific variation suggests that observed spectral and metabolic responses were driven primarily by environmental factors, likely reflecting limited genetic diversity among the commercial Populus genotypes examined. This work establishes VNIR+SWIR hyperspectral imaging as a powerful, non-destructive phenotyping tool for precision monitoring and targeted improvement of drought resilience in bioenergy crops.

Biochemical trait prediction↗

A genomic data resource for predicting antimicrobial resistance from laboratory-derived antimicrobial susceptibility phenotypes

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a major global health threat that affects millions of people each year. Funding agencies worldwide and the global research community have expended considerable capital and effort tracking the evolution and spread of AMR by isolating and sequencing bacterial strains and performing antimicrobial susceptibility testing (AST). For the last several years, we have been capturing these efforts by curating data from the literature and data resources and building a set of assembled bacterial genome sequences that are paired with laboratory-derived AST data. This collection currently contains AST data for over 67 000 genomes encompassing approximately 40 genera and over 100 species. In this paper, we describe the characteristics of this collection, highlighting areas where sampling is comparatively deep or shallow, and showing areas where attention is needed from the research community to improve sampling and tracking efforts. In addition to using the data to track the evolution and spread of AMR, it also serves as a useful starting point for building machine learning models for predicting AMR phenotypes. Further, we demonstrate this by describing two machine learning models that are built from the entire dataset to show where the predictive power is comparatively high or low.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Integrating crop growth models with remote sensing for predicting biomass yield of sorghum

Abstract Plant phenotypes are often descriptive, rather than predictive of crop performance. As a result, extensive testing is required in plant breeding programmes to develop varieties aimed at performance in the target environments. Crop models can improve this testing regime by providing a predictive framework to (i) augment field phenotyping data and derive hard-to-measure phenotypes and (ii) estimate performance across geographical regions using historical weather data. The goal of this study was to parameterize the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) crop growth models with remote-sensing and ground-reference data to predict variation in phenology and yield-related traits in 18 commercial grain and biomass sorghum hybrids. Genotype parameters for each hybrid were estimated using remote-sensing measurements combined with manual phenotyping in West Lafayette, IN, in 2018. The models were validated in hybrid performance trials in two additional seasons at that site and against yield trials conducted in Bushland, TX, between 2001 and 2018. These trials demonstrated that (i) maximum plant height, final dry biomass and radiation use efficiency (RUE) of photoperiod-sensitive and -insensitive forage sorghum hybrids tended to be higher than observed in grain sorghum, (ii) photoperiod-sensitive sorghum hybrids exhibited greater biomass production in longer growing environments and (iii) the parameterized and validated models perform well in above-ground biomass simulations across years and locations. Crop growth models that integrate remote-sensing data offer an efficient approach to parameterize larger plant breeding populations.

Yang, Kai-Wei↗

Machine learning-enabled computer vision for plant phenotyping: a primer on AI/ML and a case study on stomatal patterning

Abstract Artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) can be used to automatically analyze large image datasets. One valuable application of this approach is estimation of plant trait data contained within images. Here we review 39 papers that describe the development and/or application of such models for estimation of stomatal traits from epidermal micrographs. In doing so, we hope to provide plant biologists with a foundational understanding of AI/ML and summarize the current capabilities and limitations of published tools. While most models show human-level performance for stomatal density (SD) quantification at superhuman speed, they are often likely to be limited in how broadly they can be applied across phenotypic diversity associated with genetic, environmental, or developmental variation. Other models can make predictions across greater phenotypic diversity and/or additional stomatal/epidermal traits, but require significantly greater time investment to generate ground-truth data. We discuss the challenges and opportunities presented by AI/ML-enabled computer vision analysis, and make recommendations for future work to advance accelerated stomatal phenotyping.

Plant Sciences↗

Bridging Time-series Image Phenotyping and Functional–Structural Plant Modeling to Predict Adventitious Root System Architecture

Root system architecture (RSA) is an important measure of how plants navigate and interact with the soil environment. However, current methods in studying RSA must make tradeoffs between precision of data and proximity to natural conditions, with root growth in germination papers providing accessibility and high data resolution. Functional–structural plant models (FSPMs) can overcome this tradeoff, though parameterization and evaluation of FSPMs are traditionally based in manual measurements and visual comparison. Here, we applied a germination paper system to study the adventitious RSA and root phenology of Populus trichocarpa stem cuttings using time-series image-based phenotyping augmented by FSPM. We found a significant correlation between timing of root initiation and thermal time at cutting collection (P value = 0.0061, R 2 = 0.875), but little correlation with RSA. We also present a use of RhizoVision [1] for automatically extracting FSPM parameters from time series images and evaluating FSPM simulations. A high accuracy of the parameterization was achieved in predicting 2D growth with a sensitivity rate of 83.5%. This accuracy was lost when predicting 3D growth with sensitivity rates of 38.5% to 48.7%, while overall accuracy varied with phenotyping methods. Despite this loss in accuracy, the new method is amenable to high throughput FSPM parameterization and bridges the gap between advances in time-series phenotyping and FSPMs.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Knowledge Graph of RB-Tnseq Data from Fitness Browser (KP-DP1)

Motivation: Predicting microbial gene fitness across environmental conditions remains a central challenge for predictive phenomics and autonomous experimentation. Fitness assays generate large volumes of genotype–phenotype measurements difficult to integrate with experimental metadata and biological function in a form that supports mechanistic reasoning. Knowledge graphs offer a semantic framework for unifying modalities and enabling context-aware inference. Results: We build GIMME (Graph Inference for Microbial Metabolism Exploration), a semantically grounded knowledge graph that unifies gene fitness measurements spanning 10 Pseudomonas species with experimental metadata and biological context. Media are decomposed into chemical components and experiments carry structured links to natural-language descriptions. The resulting graph supports two inference modes: (1) symbolic graph traversal to surface candidate gene–environment and gene–chemical associations, and (2) learned inference using heterogeneous graph neural networks that propagate information across neighborhoods. We formulate link regression over (gene, media, experiment) triplets, combining learned gene embeddings with pretrained LLM sourced text embeddings of node descriptions to predict gene fitness. We then augment a baseline MLP with an auxiliary message-passing encoder (GraphSAGE/GAT) that propagates information over gene–protein–function and media–chemical subgraphs, and fuse the two pathways with a gated residual connection. This approach produces strong agreement with held-out fitness measurements (GraphSAGE Pearson r 0.74) while also highlighting inference challenges in extreme-fitness regimes. We aggregate GAT edge-attention weights by relation type and layer to estimate which biological and environmental relations most influence fitness predictions. Conclusion: This work explores using knowledge graphs as “context graphs” for microbial phenotype prediction. They provide a rich substrate which enables explainable retrieval of supporting evidence, and provides a natural bridge to autonomous workflows that prioritize the next experiment.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Accurate flux predictions using tissue-specific gene expression in plant metabolic modeling

The accurate prediction of complex phenotypes such as metabolic fluxes in living systems is a grand challenge for systems biology and central to efficiently identifying biotechnological interventions that can address pressing industrial needs. The application of gene expression data to improve the accuracy of metabolic flux predictions using mechanistic modeling methods such as flux balance analysis (FBA) has not been previously demonstrated in multi-tissue systems, despite their biotechnological importance. We hypothesized that a method for generating metabolic flux predictions informed by relative expression levels between tissues would improve prediction accuracy. Relative gene expression levels derived from multiple transcriptomic and proteomic datasets were integrated into FBA predictions of a multi-tissue, diel model of Arabidopsis thaliana’s central metabolism. This integration dramatically improved the agreement of flux predictions with experimentally based flux maps from 13 C metabolic flux analysis compared with a standard parsimonious FBA approach. Disagreement between FBA predictions and MFA flux maps was measured using weighted averaged percent error values, and for parsimonious FBA this was 169%–180% for high light conditions and 94%–103% for low light conditions, depending on the gene expression dataset used. This fell to 10%-13% and 9%-11% upon incorporating expression data into the modeling process, which also substantially altered the predicted carbon and energy economy of the plant.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Application of Cell Painting for chemical hazard evaluation in support of screening-level chemical assessments

‘Cell Painting’ is an imaging-based high-throughput phenotypic profiling (HTPP) method in which cultured cells are fluorescently labeled to visualize subcellular structures (i.e., nucleus, nucleoli, endoplasmic reticulum, cytoskeleton, Golgi apparatus / plasma membrane and mitochondria) and to quantify morphological changes in response to chemicals or other perturbagens. HTPP is a high-throughput and cost-effective bioactivity screening method that detects effects associated with many different molecular mechanisms in an untargeted manner, enabling rapid in vitro hazard assessment for thousands of chemicals. Here, 1201 chemicals from the ToxCast library were screened in concentration-response up to ~100 μM in human U-2 OS cells using HTPP. A phenotype altering concentration (PAC) was estimated for chemicals active in the tested range. PACs tended to be higher than lower bound potency values estimated from a broad collection of targeted high-throughput assays, but lower than the threshold for cytotoxicity. In vitro to in vivo extrapolation (IVIVE) was used to estimate administered equivalent doses (AEDs) based on PACs for comparison to human exposure predictions. AEDs for 18/412 chemicals overlapped with predicted human exposures. Phenotypic profile information was also leveraged to identify putative mechanisms of action and group chemicals. Of 58 known nuclear receptor modulators, only glucocorticoids and retinoids produced characteristic profiles; and both receptor types are expressed in U-2 OS cells. Thirteen chemicals with profile similarity to glucocorticoids were tested in a secondary screen and one chemical, pyrene, was confirmed by an orthogonal gene expression assay as a novel putative GR modulating chemical. Most active chemicals demonstrated profiles not associated with a known mechanism-of-action. However, many structurally related chemicals produced similar profiles, with exceptions such as diniconazole, whose profile differed from other active conazoles. Overall, the present study demonstrates how HTPP can be applied in screening-level chemical assessments through a series of examples and brief case studies.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

A single genomic region controls primocane fruiting in tetraploid blackberry

The fresh-market blackberry ( Rubus subgenus Rubus ) industry has expanded dramatically in the past 2 decades, driven in part by improved cultivars. Introgression of the primocane-fruiting (PF; annual flowering) trait into elite germplasm has enabled dual cropping in a single year, season extension, and cultivation in tropical and subtropical regions. Despite its economic performance, the genetic basis of PF is not well understood. It has been proposed that the PF trait is controlled by a major recessive locus, but its genomic location is unclear. Here, a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of 365 tetraploid blackberry genotypes identified a single genomic region on chromosome Ra03 (∼33 Mb) strongly associated with PF. Genetic linkage analysis in a biparental population confirmed that the same interval (32–35 Mb) was linked to the PF phenotype. Ten putative candidate genes were identified in this region. Allele mining using whole-genome resequencing of 17 genotypes highlighted 2 high-priority candidates: a CCCH-type zinc finger gene and an ubiquitin-specific protease gene. Use of an improved Rubus argutus “Hillquist” genome annotation (v1.2) enabled refined variant interpretation, including identification of regulatory 3′ UTR polymorphisms in the zinc finger homolog. Two diagnostic KASP markers (PF1 and PF2), designed from the most significant GWAS SNPs, predicted the PF phenotype with over 96% accuracy in a validation panel of 494 tetraploid blackberries from multiple breeding programs. Together, these results provide the first high-resolution mapping of the PF locus in blackberry, identify candidate genes for flowering regulation in Rubus , and deliver diagnostic markers that can be immediately deployed in breeding programs.

GWAS↗

Human XPG nuclease structure, assembly, and activities with insights for neurodegeneration and cancer from pathogenic mutations

Xeroderma pigmentosum group G (XPG) protein is both a functional partner in multiple DNA damage responses (DDR) and a pathway coordinator and structure-specific endonuclease in nucleotide excision repair (NER). Different mutations in the XPG gene ERCC5 lead to either of two distinct human diseases: Cancer-prone xeroderma pigmentosum (XP-G) or the fatal neurodevelopmental disorder Cockayne syndrome (XP-G/CS). To address the enigmatic structural mechanism for these differing disease phenotypes and for XPG’s role in multiple DDRs, here we determined the crystal structure of human XPG catalytic domain (XPGcat), revealing XPG-specific features for its activities and regulation. Furthermore, XPG DNA binding elements conserved with FEN1 superfamily members enable insights on DNA interactions. Notably, all but one of the known pathogenic point mutations map to XPGcat, and both XP-G and XP-G/CS mutations destabilize XPG and reduce its cellular protein levels. Mapping the distinct mutation classes provides structure-based predictions for disease phenotypes: Residues mutated in XP-G are positioned to reduce local stability and NER activity, whereas residues mutated in XP-G/CS have implied long-range structural defects that would likely disrupt stability of the whole protein, and thus interfere with its functional interactions. Combined data from crystallography, biochemistry, small angle X-ray scattering, and electron microscopy unveil an XPG homodimer that binds, unstacks, and sculpts duplex DNA at internal unpaired regions (bubbles) into strongly bent structures, and suggest how XPG complexes may bind both NER bubble junctions and replication forks. Collective results support XPG scaffolding and DNA sculpting functions in multiple DDR processes to maintain genome stability.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Catabolic pathway acquisition by rhizosphere bacteria readily enables growth with a root exudate component but does not affect root colonization

Horizontal gene transfer (HGT) is a fundamental evolutionary process that plays a key role in bacterial evolution. The likelihood of a successful transfer event is expected to depend on the precise balance of costs and benefits resulting from pathway acquisition. Most experimental analyses of HGT have focused on phenotypes that have large fitness benefits under appropriate selective conditions, such as antibiotic resistance. However, many examples of HGT involve phenotypes that are predicted to provide smaller benefits, such as the ability to catabolize additional carbon sources. We have experimentally simulated the consequences of one such HGT event in the laboratory, studying the effects of transferring a pathway for catabolism of the plant-derived aromatic compound salicyl alcohol between rhizosphere isolates from the Pseudomonas genus. We find that pathway acquisition enables rapid catabolism of salicyl alcohol with only minor disruptions to the existing metabolic and regulatory networks of the new host. However, this new catabolic potential does not confer a measurable fitness advantage during competitive growth in the rhizosphere. We conclude that the phenotype of salicyl alcohol catabolism is readily transferable but is selectively neutral under environmentally relevant conditions. We propose that this condition is common and that HGT of many pathways will be self-limiting because the selective benefits are small.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Mixed heavy metal stress induces global iron starvation response

Abstract Multiple heavy metal contamination is an increasingly common global problem. Heavy metals have the potential to disrupt microbially mediated biogeochemical cycling. However, systems-level studies on the effects of combinations of heavy metals on bacteria are lacking. For this study, we focused on the Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR; Oak Ridge, TN, USA) subsurface which is contaminated with several heavy metals and high concentrations of nitrate. Using a native Bacillus cereus isolate that represents a dominant species at this site, we assessed the combined impact of eight metal contaminants, all at site-relevant concentrations, on cell processes through an integrated multi-omics approach that included discovery proteomics, targeted metabolomics, and targeted gene-expression profiling. The combination of eight metals impacted cell physiology in a manner that could not have been predicted from summing phenotypic responses to the individual metals. Exposure to the metal mixture elicited a global iron starvation response not observed during individual metal exposures. This disruption of iron homeostasis resulted in decreased activity of the iron-cofactor-containing nitrate and nitrite reductases, both of which are important in biological nitrate removal at the site. We propose that the combinatorial effects of simultaneous exposure to multiple heavy metals is an underappreciated yet significant form of cell stress in the environment with the potential to disrupt global nutrient cycles and to impede bioremediation efforts at mixed waste sites. Our work underscores the need to shift from single- to multi-metal studies for assessing and predicting the impacts of complex contaminants on microbial systems.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Allometric Trophic Networks From Individuals to Socio-Ecosystems: Consumer–Resource Theory of the Ecological Elephant in the Room

A well-known parable is that of the blind men studying an elephant each of which assert the elephant is the part they first hold in their hands, e.g., “rope!” says the tail holder while the leg holder asserts “tree!” The various subdisciplines of ecology appear similar in that we each engage in our enthusiastic but at least somewhat myopic study with remarkably limited agreement or even discussion about the overall system which we all study. Allometric trophic network (ATN) theory offers a path out of this dilemma by integrating across scales, taxa, habitats and organizational levels from physiology to ecosystems based on consumer-resource interactions among co-existing organisms. The network architecture and the metabolic and behavioral processes that determine the structure and dynamics of these interactions form the first principles of ATN theory, which in turn provides a synthetic overview and powerfully predictive framework for ecology from organisms to ecosystems. Beyond ecology, ATN theory also synthesizes eco-evolutionary and socio-ecological research still largely based on consumer-resource mechanisms but respectively integrated with different processes including natural selection and market mechanisms. This paper briefly describes foundations, advances, and future directions of ATN theory including predicting an ecosystem’s phenotype from its community’s genotype in order to accelerate more predictive and unified understanding of the complex systems studied by ecologists and other environmental scientists.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A robust and interpretable machine learning approach using multimodal biological data to predict future pathological tau accumulation

The early stages of Alzheimer’s disease (AD) involve interactions between multiple pathophysiological processes. Although these processes are well studied, we still lack robust tools to predict individualised trajectories of disease progression. Here, we employ a robust and interpretable machine learning approach to combine multimodal biological data and predict future pathological tau accumulation. In particular, we use machine learning to quantify interactions between key pathological markers (β-amyloid, medial temporal lobe atrophy, tau and APOE 4) at mildly impaired and asymptomatic stages of AD. Using baseline non-tau markers we derive a prognostic index that: (a) stratifies patients based on future pathological tau accumulation, (b) predicts individualised regional future rate of tau accumulation, and (c) translates predictions from deep phenotyping patient cohorts to cognitively normal individuals. Our results propose a robust approach for fine scale stratification and prognostication with translation impact for clinical trial design targeting the earliest stages of AD.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗