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The goal of the proposal is to determine the present motion of the main tectonic plates from the Doppler data of the Doppler Orbitography and Radiopositioning Integrated by Satellite (DORIS) orbitography system, which includes in its final configuration about 50 tracking stations with a world-wide distribution.
The current motions of the African, Eurasian, and North American plates are examined. The problems addressed include whether there is resolvable motion of a Spitsbergen microplate, the direction of motion between the African and North American plates, whether the Gloria fault is an active transform fault, and the implications of plate circuit closures for rates of intraplate deformation. Marine geophysical data and magnetic profiles are used to construct a model which predicts about 4 mm/yr slip across the Azores-Gibraltar Ridge, and west-northwest convergence near Gibraltar. The analyzed data are consistent with a rigid plate model with the Gloria fault being a transform fault.
The state of Pacific-North America plate interaction is updated using newest VLBI measurements and newly developed rigid plate tectonic models. Particular attention is given to examining the extent of relative motion between the Pacific plate and the North America plate as measured from their stable interiors, the evidence of Pacific plate deformation off the central California coast, and the distribution of path integrated deformaton east of the San Andreas fault. The information obtained on these questions is discussed in the framework of implications for lithospheric rheology and earthquake hazard.
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The NUVEL-1 model of current global relative plate velocities is presently incorporated into HS2-NUVEL1, a global model for plate velocities relative to hotspots; the results thus obtained are compared with those of the AM1-2 model of hotspot-relative plate velocities. While there are places in which plate velocities relative to the hotspots differ between HS2-NUVEL1 and AM1-2 by tens of degrees in direction and 15 mm/yr in speed, the hotspot Euler vectors differ with 95 percent confidence only for the Arabian and Indian plates. Plates attached to subducting slabs move faster relative to the hotspots than do plates without slabs.
Convergence rates between the Juan de Fuca and North American plates are calculated by means of their relative, present-day pole of rotation. A method of calculating the propagation of errors in addition to the instantaneous poles of rotation is also formulated and applied to determine the Euler pole for Pacific-Juan de Fuca. This pole is vectorially added to previously published poles for North America-Pacific and 'hot spot'-Pacific to obtain North America-Juan de Fuca and 'hot spot'-Juan de Fuca, respectively. The errors associated with these resultant poles are determined by propagating the errors of the two summed angular velocity vectors. Under the assumption that hot spots are fixed with respect to a mantle reference frame, the average absolute velocity of the Juan de Puca plate is computed at approximately 15 mm/yr, thereby making it the slowest-moving of the oceanic plates.
During the last century, three different ways of interpreting the tectonic evolution of the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean have been proposed, taking into account the Bailey Willis School of a permanent pre-Jurassic deep sea basin, the Edward Suess School of a subsided continental terrain, and the Alfred Wegener School of continental separation. The present investigation is concerned with an outline of an interpretation which follows that of Pindell and Dewey (1982). An attempt is made to point out ways in which the advanced hypotheses can be tested. The fit of Africa, North America, and South America is considered along with aspects of relative motion between North and South America since the early Jurasic. Attention is given to a framework for reconstructing Caribbean plate evolution, the evolution of the Caribbean, the plate boundary zones of the northern and southern Caribbean, and the active deformation of the Caribbean plate.
The rate-of-slip vector on the San Andreas fault in central California estimated from geodetic and Holocene geological data is inconsistent with the prediction of rigid plate models such as RM2. This well-known 'San Andreas discrepancy' is diagnostic of plate deformation distributed both east of the fault in the Basin and Range and west of the fault along the California continental margin. Constraints on the integrated deformation rates across these two regions consistent with: (1) the kinematical boundary conditions imposed by the rigid plate model; (2) neotectonic and paleoseismic estimates of deformation rates; (3) ground-based geodetic measurements; and (4) rates of change observed by very long baseline interferometry along seven baselines to western U.S. sites are constructed. The space-geodetic data on Basin and Range extension taken over a 4-year interval are compatible with geological observations averaged over the Holocene; the best estimate of its integrated deformation rate, provided by the joint inversion of both data types, is 9.7 + or - 2.1 mm/yr, N 56 deg W + or - 10 deg, too small and in the wrong direction to account entirely for the San Andreas discrepancy. The integral of this deformation, estimated by subtracting the Basin and Range contribution from the discrepancy vector, requires significant right-lateral shear parallel to the San Andreas (13 + or - 5 mm/yr) and some compression perpendicular to it (9 + or - 3 mm/yr).
Progress made due to Lageos tracking and the participation of over 20 countries in the acquisition and analysis of precise range measurements is reviewed. Results of both the observed global and regional plate kinematics are presented. Mission accomplishments include the following: (1) laser technology advancements of more than an order of magnitude in single point range precision over the last ten years, (2) station positioning at the few centimeter accuracy level for annual solutions, and (3) the emergence of a global picture of plate kinematics.
The very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) measurements made in the western U.S. since 1979 provide discrete samples of the temporal and spatial deformation field. The interpretation of the VLBI derived rates of deformation requires an examination of geologic information and more densely sampled ground based geodetic data. Triangulation and trilateration data measured on two regional networks, one in the central Mojave Desert and one in the Coast Ranges east of the San Andreas fault, were processed. At the spatial scales spanned by these local geodetic networks, auxiliary geologic and geophysical data were utilized to examine the relation between measured incremental strain and the accommodation of strain seen in local geologic structures, strain release in earthquakes, and principal stress directions inferred from in situ measurements. VLBI data was also processed from stations distributed across the Pacific-North America plate boundary zone in the western U.S. The VLBI data were used to constrain the integrated rate of deformation across portions of the continental plate boundary in California and to provide a tectonic framework to interpret regional geodetic and geologic studies.
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Analysis of 211 very long baseline interferometry observing sessions carried out between November 1979 and August 1984 has yielded estimates of the distances between various radio telescopes located in North America and Europe. The average rate of change of the distances between four radio telescopes in North America (Haystack Observatory, Massachusetts; Westford Radio Telescope, Massachusetts; George R. Agassiz Station, Texas; and Owens Valley Radio Observatory, California) and one in Europe (Onsala Space Observatory, Sweden) obtained from the analysis of these data is 19 + or 10 mm/yr, where the (68 percent confidence interval) standard deviation is for the estimate of the rate of change of the Haystack-Onsala baseline length, the one determined most accurately from these data. This estimate of the standard deviation is dominated by the effects of correlated systematic errors due mostly to errors in the model used for the atmospheric delay which introduces errors in each baseline length estimate of 40 mm standard deviation and 60 days correlation time. (By contrast the statistical standard deviation is only 2 mm/yr). The estimated geologic rates of change of these baseline lengths, averaged over 10 to the 6th years, are 15 to 17 + or - 3 mm/yr for the various North American sites to Ondala.
An analysis of geodetic data in the vicinity of the Crustal Dynamics Program (CDP) site at Vandenberg Air Force Base (VNDN) is presented. The utility of space-geodetic data in the monitoring of transient strains associated with earthquakes in tectonically active areas like California is investigated. Particular interest is in the possibility that space-geodetic methods may be able to provide critical new data on deformations precursory to large seismic events. Although earthquake precursory phenomena are not well understood, the monitoring of small strains in the vicinity of active faults is a promising technique for studying the mechanisms that nucleate large earthquakes and, ultimately, for earthquake prediction. Space-geodetic techniques are now capable of measuring baselines of tens to hundreds of kilometers with a precision of a few parts in 108. Within the next few years, it will be possible to record and analyze large-scale strain variations with this precision continuously in real time. Thus, space-geodetic techniques may become tools for earthquake prediction. In anticipation of this capability, several questions related to the temporal and spatial scales associated with subseismic deformation transients are examined.
Satellite laser ranging (SLR) observed baseline rates of change were measured and compared with rates determined from sea floor spreading rates and directions, and earth-quake solutions. With the number of years of observation now over six for many of the baselines, the inaccuracy of determining baseline rates of change has diminished so that in some cases it is less than a few mm per year. Thus, a direct comparison between baseline rates of change and rates of change established using geophysical information (called geological rates) is now feasible. In most cases, there is good agreement between the rates determined from SLR and geological rates, but in some cases there appear to be discrepancies. These discrepancies involve many of the data for which one end of the baseline is either Quincy (California), Huahine (French Polynesia), or Simosato (Japan). A method for looking at the discrepancies for these SLR observatories has been devised which makes it possible to calculate the motion not modeled by the geologic information.
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We use geodetic data taken over four years with the Global Positioning System (GPS) to estimate.
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The Crustal Dynamics Project has been developing, deploying, and operating very-long-baseline interferometry (VLBI) systems and satellite laser ranging (SLR) systems for highly accurate geodetic measurements of global plate motion, plate stability, regional crustal deformation, and earth rotation/polar motion. Over the past 10 years, the measurement accuracies of these systems have been improved by a factor of 10 to the cm level. Plans are to continue these developments to reach mm level accuracies. The present deployment of the VLBI systems is primarily in the Northern Hemisphere. This network has produced measurements of the relative plate motion between the North American, Eurasian, and Pacific plates; the stability of the same plates; and the regional deformation at the North American/Pacific plate boundary in California and Alaska.