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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2025

Long-Duration Energy Storage Grid Integration-Valuation Framework and Incentive Gaps

Given these challenges and current modeling gaps on Long Duration Energy Storage (LDES), enhancing the structure and design of existing planning, operations, and organized wholesale markets can better characterize the value of LDES to the power system. To more thoroughly assess the gaps and barriers to LDES investment and readiness for integration into a future grid, we conducted stakeholder outreach through an online survey, interviews with individual independent system operators/regional transmission organizations, and a literature review. Based on this assessment, we identified a set of opportunities for LDES focused development, including a framework to quantify the contributions of LDES on resource adequacy, reliability, and resiliency. Specifically, we identify the potential demand for and benefits of an open-source, LDES-centric evaluation framework that can guide future planning, operations, market design, and policy reforms.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

BETO 2021 Peer Review - Analytical Development & Support WBS 2.5.1.101

The objective of the Analytical Development and Support (ADS) Project is to produce and maintain the critical analytical methods and tools that enable evaluation of emerging biofuels R&D at NREL and in the broader biofuels research community. Our project is divided into two tasks: one task to develop novel analytical techniques and improve existing methods and one task to maintain existing analytical capabilities at NREL and provide outreach to the wider community. The ADS Project is world-recognized for our Laboratory Analytical Procedures (LAPS) which provide detailed procedures for compositional analysis of biomass and have been adopted as the de facto standards within the biofuels community largely due to the transparency of the methods and the high reputation of NREL's research. Our dialog with stakeholders allows us to provide robust, precise, accurate, and publicly available analytical procedures for better valuation of scientific tools such as our recent accomplishment in developing a cellulose assay to support the EPA and industry in calculation of converted cellulose during starch ethanol production. We continue to develop analytical capabilities to support BETO's directives to research cost advantaged fuels such as animal wastes and novel bioproducts like 2,3-Butane-diol.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Valuing Residential Energy Efficiency: Analysis for a Prototypical Southeastern Utility [Slides]

The increasing amount of variable renewable energy resources and shifts towards more end-use and vehicle electrification suggests profound changes to power system planning and operation. Specifically, renewable energy is expected to shift net peak demand from late afternoon to early evening and end-use electrification may significantly increase winter peak demand. Residential energy efficiency is likely to align well with these shifts as it tends to produce savings in the early evening (e.g., from lighting measures) and coincident with heating loads (e.g., from envelope and space conditioning measures). Despite the opportunity to decrease system costs and emissions, residential energy efficiency is often limited by static valuation methods and its economic potential is considerably less than its technical potential. Using hourly residential energy efficiency characterizations, utility program cost data, and a capacity expansion model, we estimate the benefits of residential energy efficiency for a prototypical, summer-peaking utility in the Southeastern region. We first establish the cost-effective residential energy efficiency portfolio through “competition” with supply-side resources in a forward-looking capacity expansion model. Importantly, we then evaluate several scenarios intended to drive an increasing amount of cost-effective residential energy efficiency through measure cost reductions, increased customer adoption, policy goals (e.g., carbon price), and delivery of an integrated package of measures. The results quantify total system cost and emissions reductions, fossil-fuel plant retirements, and peak demand reductions. Results suggest the design and prioritization of policies and programs to access the untapped amount of cost-effective residential energy efficiency.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Energy Storage Financing: Project and Portfolio Valuation

This study investigates the issues and challenges surrounding energy storage project and portfolio valuation and provide insights in to improving visibility into the process for developers, capital providers, and customers so they can make more informed choices. Energy storage project valuation methodology is typical of power sector projects through evaluating various revenue and cost assumptions in a project economic model. The difference is that energy storage projects have many more design and operational variables to incorporate, and the governing market rules that control these variables are still evolving. This makes project valuation for energy storage more difficult. As the number of operating projects grow, portfolios of these projects are being developed, garnering the interest of larger investors. Valuation challenges of these portfolios can be even more challenging as market role and geographical diversity can actually exacerbate the variability, not mitigate it. By proposing additional visibility of key factors and drivers for industry participants, the US DOE can reduce investment risk, expanding both the number and types of investors, plus helping emerging energy storage technology into sustained commercialization.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Rooftop Photovoltaics and Electric Vehicle Co-Adoption: Attitudes, Norms, Diffusion, and Economics

The overall objectives of the project were to (1) Identify personal and social norms, peer effects, demographics and contextual factors (such as household energy expenditures, experience with outages, charging infrastructure availability) that may facilitate or hinder Solar-EV co-adoption; (2) outline strategies for the design of programs and practices that will enable reasoned RPV and EV adoption and their co-adoption; and (3) assemble a dataset comprised of survey responses of RPV-EV co-adopters, RPV-only adopters, EV-only adopters, and non-adopters. These objectives were only partially fulfilled given the decision to terminate the project. The research team was able to complete the semi-structured interviews, the core BY1 task and summarize the results below. As well, once the team learned of the research project’s fate, it sought and obtained the DOE SETO Technical Manager’s approval to repurpose funds for BY2 tasks to the extent feasible. Rather than invest further resources in expanding the pool of potential survey respondents and having no budget to survey, the research team repurposed funds subject and undertook a more limited (geographically) survey, but also expanded to it to include contingent valuation questions. The analysis of the survey data will necessarily be delayed given the lack of budget support, although some information on the respondent sample is in the results. Given a lack of attention to co-adoption previously, the insights generated in this project should assist decision-makers and industry actors in the development of programs and practices that enable reasoned RPV adoption and EV adoption and their co-adoption.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Managing Solar Photovoltaic Integration in the Western United States: Resource Adequacy Considerations

This study examines the impact of reserve margin-based reliability assessment, as commonly used in capacity expansion models, on planning resource-adequate power systems under high penetrations of solar photovoltaics (PV). As a generation resource, PV is operationally different from the conventional dispatchable resources for which most capacity expansion models were designed. The question this study attempts to answer is whether large amounts of PV on a system (in this case, the Western Interconnection of North America) would bias the results of conventional reserve margin-based capacity expansion modeling towards an over- or under-provisioning of resource adequacy. This analysis used NREL’s Resource Planning Model (RPM) for capacity expansion modeling and NREL’s Probabilistic Resource Adequacy Suite (PRAS) for resource adequacy assessment. RPM uses a reserve margin requirement to enforce resource adequacy. PRAS, a collection of tools for studying the resource adequacy of power systems and the adequacy contributions of individual resources on a probabilistic basis, was used to compute multiple resource adequacy metrics across a number of simulated scenarios and system representations with differing regional detail. In all cases, including high PV penetrations (up to 33% annual generation from PV, interconnection-wide), RPM was able to produce resource-adequate systems as measured by normalized expected unserved energy and loss-of-load expectation results from PRAS. The accuracy of reserve margin approaches depends heavily on the underlying assumptions informing the capacity credit assigned to variable and energy-limited resources, particularly when such resources are abundant in the modeled system. RPM’s standard methodology for estimating variable and flexible resources’ capacity contributions, which is based on the top 100 hours of net load, did not appear to systematically undervalue or overvalue variable generation relative to a more rigorous equivalent firm capacity assessment using PRAS, although both over- and under-valuations were observed in specific scenarios. In the worst cases, the top 100 hour method underestimated the equivalent firm capacity of PV by two percentage points, and overestimated the equivalent firm capacity of PV by five percentage points. Calculating capacity contributions based on the top 10 hours of net load systematically underestimated equivalent firm capacities at more modest PV penetrations, but was often a better approximation of equivalent firm capacity than the existing 100-hour approach in scenarios with higher PV penetrations.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Techno-Economic, Feasibility, and Life Cycle Analysis of Renewable Propane: 2025 Update

To clarify the current and future landscape for renewable propane (RP) production, this work evaluates the value proposition of recovering RP from existing and planned hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids (HEFA) biorefineries and surveys emerging technologies under development or deployment. HEFA biorefineries co-produce a propane-rich fuel gas stream, normally used to meet HEFA process heat requirements, from which propane can be recovered and sold to create an additional revenue stream alongside liquid transportation fuels such as renewable diesel (RD) and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). This report updates and extends a 2022 analysis of RP recovery from HEFA facilities by escalating capital and operating costs to 2024 prices, incorporating recent policy developments (including the Section 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit), evaluating RP recovery for both RD- and SAF-focused HEFA facilities at two scales (3,000 and 75,000 barrels per day of feedstock), and quantifying the impact of RP recovery on HEFA liquid-fuel carbon intensity (CI) and associated tax credits using the 45ZCF-GREET model. For a 3,000 BPD RD-focused HEFA facility, approximately 3.5 million gallons per year (MGPY) of RP can be recovered; in this base case, the estimated payback period is 18 months based on the total installed cost of the RP recovery equipment and 36 months based on the total capital investment for the entire RP recovery project. The payback period is slightly shorter for the analogous SAF-focused configuration (approximately 4.3 MGPY RP). Sensitivity analysis shows that CAPEX magnitude, RP recovery plant scale, and CI-driven tax credit valuations are the dominant determinants of project viability. RP recovery may increase the CI of HEFA liquid fuels, which can reduce liquid-fuel tax credits (a key revenue stream for the HEFA biorefinery) and lengthen payback periods. However, RP recovery generally remains economically favorable across a wide range of plausible scenarios and market conditions. The report also summarizes emerging pathways that could expand future RP supply.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Understanding Resilience Valuation for Energy Systems: An Overview of the NREL-NYSERDA Research Collaboration

Energy resilience has become a national priority as Americans experience more power outages attributed to climate change, extreme weather, and cyber events. Energy system owners and operators recognize that they must prepare differently for outages today than they did in the past. Decision makers at all levels face unique challenges and opportunities in effectively and equitably executing a transition to more resilient power systems. The New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) recently added resilience to its mission statement. The authority engaged with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) in a collaborative effort to: 1) understand options for measuring and valuing resilience investment benefits, and 2) inform how resilience could be operationalized across NYSERDA initiatives and program areas.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Multifunctional landscapes for dedicated bioenergy crops lead to low-carbon market-competitive biofuels

Switchgrass is a promising feedstock for cellulosic biorefineries, due to its ability to maintain comparatively high biomass yields across a wide range of soil and climatic conditions. However, there is an incomplete understanding of the economic and environmental tradeoffs associated with cultivating switchgrass on low-productivity land for conversion to biofuels. This study surveys prior literature and demonstrates a new integrated assessment framework, including agroecosystem, ecosystem services valuation, technoeconomic, and life-cycle assessment models, to quantify and contextualize the economic and environmental impacts of switchgrass cultivation on marginal land with downstream conversion to biofuels. Monetizing and incorporating the value of ecosystem services, such as improved water quality benefits from nitrate and sediment reductions, climate change mitigation benefits from CO 2 emission reduction, and recreational and pollination benefits from increased biodiversity, the modeled multifunctional landscape reduces the ethanol production cost by 33.3–58.9 cents/$\scriptsize{L}$-gasoline-equivalent ($\$$1.3–2.2/gge). Planting switchgrass in low productivity land improves soil health, resulting in the carbon footprint reduction credit of 12.8–20.2 gCO 2e /MJ. For an improved switchgrass-to-ethanol conversion pathway with the maximum benefits from ecosystem services, the minimum ethanol selling price and carbon footprint of ethanol, respectively, could reach to 31 cents/$\scriptsize{L}$-gasoline-equivalent (47% reduction relative to average gasoline price) and 3 gCO 2e /MJ (97% reduction relative to gasoline). In conclusion, this low carbon renewable ethanol leads to substantial State and/or Federal policy incentives (~$\$$1/$\scriptsize{L}$-gasoline-equivalent) providing a large benefit to biorefinery operators, farmers, and the public as a whole.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Storage Futures Study: Distributed Solar and Storage Outlook: Methodology and Scenarios

This report is one in a series of NREL’s Storage Futures Study (SFS) publications. The SFS is a multiyear research project that explores the role and impact of energy storage in the evolution and operation of the U.S. power sector. The SFS is designed to examine the potential impact of energy storage technology advancement on the deployment of utility-scale storage and the adoption of distributed storage, and the implications for future power system infrastructure investment and operations. The research findings and supporting data will be published as a series of reports, with each report being released on its completion. The table below lists the specific research topics planned for examination under the SFS and the associated publication formats. This report, the fourth in the SFS series, provides a set of scenarios for cost-effectiveness and customer adoption for a range of scenarios that include future technology costs and valuation of backup power. The SFS series provides data and analysis in support of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Storage Grand Challenge, a comprehensive program to accelerate the development, commercialization, and utilization of next-generation energy storage technologies and sustain American global leadership in energy storage. The Energy Storage Grand Challenge employs a use case framework to ensure storage technologies can cost-effectively meet specific needs, and it incorporates a broad range of technologies in several categories: electrochemical, electromechanical, thermal, flexible generation, flexible buildings, and power electronics. More information, any supporting data associated with this report, links to other reports in the series, and other information about the broader study are available at https://www.nrel.gov/analysis/storage-futures.html.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
NASA NTRS2021

Future carbon emissions from global mangrove forest loss

Mangroves have among the highest carbon densities of any tropical forest. These ‘blue carbon’ ecosystems can store large amounts of carbon for long periods, and their protection reduces greenhouse gas emissions and supports climate change mitigation. Incorporating mangroves into Nationally Determined Contributions to the Paris Agreement and their valuation on carbon markets requires predicting how the management of different land-uses can prevent future greenhouse gas emissions and increase CO2 sequestration. We integrated comprehensive global datasets for carbon stocks, mangrove distribution, deforestation rates, and land-use change drivers into a predictive model of mangrove carbon emissions. We project emissions and foregone soil carbon sequestration potential under ‘business as usual’ rates of mangrove loss. Emissions from mangrove loss could reach 2391 Tg CO2 eq by the end of the century, or 3392 Tg CO2 eq when considering foregone soil carbon sequestration. The highest emissions were predicted in southeast and south Asia (West Coral Triangle, Sunda Shelf, and the Bay of Bengal) due to conversion to aquaculture or agriculture, followed by the Caribbean (Tropical Northwest Atlantic) due to clearing and erosion, and the Andaman coast (West Myanmar) and north Brazil due to erosion. Together, these six regions accounted for 90% of the total potential CO2 eq future emissions. Mangrove loss has been slowing, and global emissions could be more than halved if reduced loss rates remain in the future. Notably, the location of global emission hotspots was consistent with every dataset used to calculate deforestation rates or with alternative assumptions about carbon storage and emissions. Our results indicate the regions in need of policy actions to address emissions arising from mangrove loss and the drivers that could be managed to prevent them.

Maria F. Adame↗
DOE OSTI2022

Case Study of the City of Reno: Resilience Valuation and Planning for Solar and Storage on Critical Infrastructure

This case study report documents the City of Reno's efforts to quantify the value of resilience and the entrepreneurial ways through which the City approached the questions of what role solar and storage could play in their resilience efforts and how to value and pay for solar-plus-storage systems. It documents how and why the City of Reno came to the specific conclusion to integrate solar and storage into their Public Safety Center retrofit project and apply for Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities (BRIC) funding. This report provides an overview for other local governments to draw inspiration from when considering how to prioritize community values and pursue multi-stakeholder dialogue around resilient energy solutions. The City of Reno's experience can serve as a starting point for other communities interested in valuing the resilience benefits of solar and storage.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Resilience Valuation and Planning for Solar and Storage on Critical Infrastructure

This case study report documents the City's project evolution and the entrepreneurial ways through which the City approached the questions of how solar and storage could support their resilience efforts and how to value and pay for solar-plus-storage systems. This report documents how and why the City of Reno came to the specific conclusion to integrate solar and storage into their Public Safety Center retrofit project and apply for Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities (BRIC) funding. (The City of Reno applied for and was awarded FEMA BRIC funding in January 2021; leveraging work that was underway in this project.) This report provides an overview for other local governments to draw inspiration from when considering how to prioritize community values and pursue multi-stakeholder dialogue around resilient energy solutions. The City of Reno's experience can serve as a starting point for other communities interested in valuing the resilience benefits of solar and storage.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Distributed Wind Energy Futures Study [Slides]

To better understand distributed wind opportunities in the United States, researchers at the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) National Renewable Energy Laboratory explored cost, performance, and valuation benchmarks necessary for distributed wind to achieve widespread commercial viability in the United States by 2035. Building on DOE's prior benchmark report "Assessing the Future of Distributed Wind: Opportunities for Behind-the-Meter Projects", the new Distributed Wind Futures Study employs higher-resolution data and new modeling techniques to highlight geographic trends in technical and economic potential and to compare the cost and performance of distribution-connected, megawatt-scale wind applications (referred to as "front-of-the-meter" applications) and behind-the-meter systems, thereby informing the case for investment. The report identifies the best locations and sectors for behind-the-meter and front-of-the-meter applications and provides data to inform the trade-offs consumers face when deciding between distributed wind and solar photovoltaic (PV).

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Pumped Storage Hydropower FAST Commissioning Technical Analysis

This report is designed to address barriers and solutions to modern pumped storage hydropower (PSH) development by establishing baseline project development knowledge, defining key aspects of project development, and identifying opportunities to reduce project timelines, costs, and risks. This report’s scope includes post-licensing activities and excludes factors related to permitting or licensing. The U.S. PSH fleet is composed of 43 projects providing the majority (95%) of utility-scale electricity storage in the US. However, only one new PSH facility has become operational in the past 20 years. Several factors contribute to diminishing PSH growth in the US, including the magnitude of project costs and financing interest during development and construction; the length of time from project investment until project revenue; permitting challenges and construction risks; competition from other storage technologies; and unrecognized energy storage valuation. Although innovative PSH concepts (including underground, small, and modular systems) have been investigated, widespread application has yet to occur. In short, the time, cost, and risk associated with modern PSH development has resulted in limited recent growth in the United States, despite the rising energy storage demand from increased deployment of variable renewable technologies. To address these challenges, the US Department of Energy’s (DOE) Water Power Technologies Office initiated the PSH Furthering Advancements to Shorten Time to (FAST) Commissioning project, aimed at catalyzing new solutions, designs, and strategies to accelerate PSH development. This report uses available data from previous license applications, ongoing project cost data, and other global PSH project information based on a typical closed-loop PSH project.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Supply analysis of preferential market incentive for energy crops

This analysis explores the valuation of feedstock quality attributes of switchgrass and miscanthus – two energy crops poised for future expansion – and compares the relative economic availability of these two crops under two scenarios: (i) uniform price assumptions (i.e., no incentive for quality), and (ii) a scenario of a price premium based on convertibility (i.e., an incentive for quality). Given data on cellulose content, hemicellulose content, and their relative convertibility, miscanthus is expected to be 11% more efficient at conversion to biofuels than switchgrass under the biochemical conversion route. Based on this scenario of improved conversion efficiency and associated profit, we simulate an 11% price premium for miscanthus over other feedstocks in a base-case scenario. By adding this price premium, supplies of miscanthus increase over the base case by about 4 million (44%), 94 million (64%), and 166 million (94%) tons in year 0, 10, and 20 after simulated contracts for production are initiated respectively. These results emphasize that custom simulations are needed to quantify feedstock availability if supplies are intended to reflect grower response to industry demands for feedstock quality specifications. Farmers can grow ‘peas or carrots’, and price signals from biorefineries will influence what energy crops they produce. Recognizing that the energy crop mix is tractable according to quality characteristics is relevant both for near-term and long-term biofuels research and development. Here, we recommend accounting for market preferences for quality attributes when estimating potential future supplies of energy crops.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Empirical Indicators of Transmission Value in the Southeast United States

Concurrent differences in energy price between different parts of the electric grid are a key indicator of the value of additional transmission. In areas without a wholesale electricity market, such as the Southeast, an alternative indicator to price is the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s (FERC) system lambda data. This economic metric represents the minimized marginal production costs of thermal generators, including fuel and other variable operation and maintenance expenses. Balancing Authorities report a single system lambda for their entire balancing area. Most Southeastern lambdas exhibit sufficient price variation to support a transmission valuation analysis, although incomplete accounting of congestion costs or scarcity rents during peak load hours may underestimate the true value of transmission capacity. With transmission value defined as the annual average hourly absolute price difference between two regions and FERC’s system lambda data used as a price proxy, we find the following results in the Southeast region during 2012-2023 (reported in $\$2024$/MWh): Intra‐regional findings: Annual averages historically span $\$2$–$\$28$/MWh and average $\$12$/MWh in SERTP and span $\$4$–$\$19$/MWh and average $\$9$/MWh in FRCC, disregarding transmission value driven by anomalous data. The ranges of transmission value reported here are large, spanning an order of magnitude in some cases. Much of this variation is driven by year-to-year changes, with 2022 having a particularly high intra-regional transmission value due to elevated natural gas prices. Inter‐regional corridors: Annual average transmission values across three broader regions range from $\$6$ to $\$28$/MWh with a long-term average of $\$11$/MWh. Much of the transmission value is concentrated in a small portion of hours. Across all regions, severe weather—particularly polar vortex events in January 2018, February 2021, and December 2022—drives the largest price spreads. Seasonal patterns also emerge, with summer afternoons and fall mornings contributing consistently to transmission value, as for example between MISO and SOCO in 2023.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Distribution System Operator with Transactive (DSO+T) Study

The Distribution System Operator with Transactive (DSO+T) study investigates the engineering and economic performance of a transactive energy retail market coordinating a high penetration of customer-side flexible energy assets. The study seeks to answer whether such an implementation is cost effective for customers, recovers sufficient revenue for DSOs, and is equally applicable and beneficial to a range of flexible asset types, renewable generation scenarios, and market assumptions. Using a highly interdisciplinary co-simulation and valuation framework, this assessment encompasses the entire electrical delivery system from bulk system generation and transmission, through the distribution system, to the modeling of individual customer buildings and flexible assets (including heating, ventilation, and air conditioning [HVAC] units, water heaters, batteries, and electric vehicles). The study exercises a transactive energy retail market coordination scheme designed to integrate with an existing day-ahead and real-time competitive wholesale electricity market. Software decision-making agents are designed for the retail market operator as well as various price-responsive flexible assets. The engineering and economic performance of the transactive energy scheme is studied for two separate flexible asset deployments: flexible loads (HVAC units and residential water heaters) and behind-the-meter batteries. The results of each transactive case are compared to a business-as-usual case. These cases are subject to two different renewable generation scenarios, a moderate renewable generation scenario, representative of current levels of renewable generation deployment, and a future high renewables scenario, including the increased deployment of rooftop solar photovoltaic and electric vehicles. The transactive coordination scheme is shown to produce effective and stable control and decrease peak loads 9–15%. The resulting annual demand flexibility provides net economic savings of $3.3–5.0B per year for a region the size of Texas. Detailed analysis shows that net benefits were seen for a range of distribution system operator, customer, and flexible asset types. Both participating customer (with transactive flexible assets) and nonparticipating customers (with nonflexible assets) see reductions in annual utility bills and net annual energy expenses in the range of 10–16%.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗