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DOE OSTI2023

Estimating and Calibrating DER Model Parameters Using Levenberg–Marquardt Algorithm in Renewable Rich Power Grid

The proliferation of inverter-based distributed energy resources (IBDERs) has increased the number of control variables and dynamic interactions, leading to new grid control challenges. For stability analysis and designing appropriate protection controls, it is important that IBDER models are accurate. This paper focuses on the accurate estimation and parameter calibration of DER_A, a recently proposed aggregated IBDER model. In particular, we focus on the parameters of the reactive power–voltage regulation module. We formulate the problem of parameter tuning as a non-linear least square minimization problem and solve it using the Levenberg–Marquardt (LM) method. The LM method is primarily chosen due to its flexibility in adaptively selecting between the steepest descent and Gauss–Newton methods through a damping parameter. The LM approach is used to minimize the error between the actual measurements and the estimated response of the model. Further, the computational challenges posed by the numerical calculation of the Jacobian are tackled using a quasi-Newton root-finding approach. The proposed method is validated on a real feeder model in the northeastern part of the United States. The feeder is modeled in OpenDSS and the measurements thus obtained are fed to the DER_A model for calibration. The simulation results indicate that our approach is able to successfully calibrate the relevant model parameters quickly and with high accuracy, with a total sum of square error of 3.57 × 10 –7 .

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Microbial communities in the liver and brain are informative for postmortem submersion interval estimation in the late phase of decomposition: A study in mouse cadavers recovered from freshwater

Introduction Bodies recovered from water, especially in the late phase of decomposition, pose difficulties to the investigating authorities. Various methods have been proposed for postmortem submersion interval (PMSI) estimation and drowning identification, but some limitations remain. Many recent studies have proved the value of microbiota succession in viscera for postmortem interval estimation. Nevertheless, the visceral microbiota succession and its application for PMSI estimation and drowning identification require further investigation. Methods In the current study, mouse drowning and CO 2 asphyxia models were developed, and cadavers were immersed in freshwater for 0 to 14 days. Microbial communities in the liver and brain were characterized via 16S rDNA high-throughput sequencing. Results Only livers and brains collected from 5 to 14 days postmortem were qualified for sequencing. There was significant variation between microbiota from liver and brain. Differences in microbiota between the cadavers of mice that had drowned and those only subjected to postmortem submersion decreased over the PMSI. Significant successions in microbial communities were observed among the different subgroups within the late phase of the PMSI in livers and brains. Eighteen taxa in the liver which were mainly related to Clostridium_sensu_stricto and Aeromonas , and 26 taxa in the brain which were mainly belonged to Clostridium_sensu_stricto , Acetobacteroides , and Limnochorda , were selected as potential biomarkers for PMSI estimation based on a random forest algorithm. The PMSI estimation models established yielded accurate prediction results with mean absolute errors ± the standard error of 1.282 ± 0.189 d for the liver and 0.989 ± 0.237 d for the brain. Conclusions The present study provides novel information on visceral postmortem microbiota succession in corpses submerged in freshwater which sheds new light on PMSI estimation based on the liver and brain in forensic practice.

Wang, Linlin↗

DOE OSTI2026

Queue wait time prediction in high performance computing (HPC) systems

High Performance Computing (HPC) systems are critical enablers for groundbreaking scientific research across various domains. Efficient resource allocation, facilitated by job scheduling, is paramount for maximizing the utilization of HPC systems. However, the variability in wait times for queued jobs poses challenges for users, necessitating accurate job wait time estimation. This paper explores the influence of job characteristics, including job size (the number of nodes requested and walltime), the queue to which the job is submitted and other resource requirements, on job wait times in leadership-class HPC systems. Focusing on the Theta Cray XC40 and Polaris machines at Argonne National Laboratory, the study evaluates the performance of different supervised learning algorithms in predicting job wait times. It also evaluates the impact of data preprocessing, including outlier detection, Principal Component Analysis (PCA), and feature selection, on the performance of wait time prediction models. The findings reveal insights into the relationship between job characteristics and wait times, offering a foundation for optimizing resource allocation and enhancing user experience. The methodologies and tools developed in this study are adaptable to other leadership-class HPC systems, providing a valuable contribution to the broader HPC community aiming to improve job scheduling efficiency and user satisfaction.

Okafor, Nwamaka↗

DOE OSTI2020

Binding Affinity Prediction by Pairwise Function Based on Neural Network

In this paper, we present a new approach to estimate the binding affinity from given three-dimensional poses of protein–ligand complexes. In this scheme, every protein–ligand atom pair makes an additive free-energy contribution. The sum of these pairwise contributions then gives the total binding free energy or the logarithm of the dissociation constant. The pairwise contribution is calculated by a function implemented via a neural network that takes the properties of the two atoms and their distance as input. The pairwise function is trained using a portion of the PDBbind 2018 data set. The model achieves good accuracy for affinity predictions when evaluated with PDBbind 2018 and with the CASF-2016 benchmark, comparing favorably to many scoring functions such as that of AutoDock Vina. The framework here may be extended to incorporate other factors to further improve its accuracy and power.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

FCC-ee interaction region backgrounds

The FCC-ee machine induced backgrounds on the two proposed detectors (CLD and IDEA) have been studied in detail. Synchrotron Radiation (SR) considerations dictate the Interaction Region (IR) optimization. An asymmetric IR design limits the final bend critical energy to 100 keV. Masks placed before the final focus quadrupole protect the detector from direct hits, and a shield placed around the beam pipe from secondary particles, keeping the effect of SR on the detector to negligible levels. The most important source of background is expected to be the Incoherent Pair Creation (IPC). Its effect has been studied in full simulation and reconstruction, and it was shown that it will not pose a problem for the detector, even if conservative estimations for the time resolution of the detector sensors are assumed. Moreover, the γγ → hadrons, radiative Bhabhas and beam-gas interaction induced backgrounds were studied. All were found to have small to negligible effect on the detector. Finally overall, the FCC–ee interaction region backgrounds are not expected to compromise the detector performance.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2026

Hyporheic‐Zone Processes and Stream Oxygen Dynamics: Insights From a Multiscale Reactive Transport Model

Aquatic ecosystem metabolism encapsulates the daily fixation (gross primary production, GPP d ) and mineralization (ecosystem respiration, ER d ) of organic carbon. In fluvial systems, these are commonly estimated by inverse solutions to field observations using a model that describes oxygen concentrations varying in the water column in response to metabolic fluxes and air‐water gas exchange controlled by a rate coefficient (K 600 ). The most common conceptual model is the single‐station metabolism (SSM) model. The simplicity and flexibility of this conceptualization make it attractive; however, it implicitly assumes that all the processes that consume oxygen in fluvial systems can be lumped into a bulk estimate of respiration with poorly understood consequences for estimates of GPP d , ER d , and K 600 . Here, we focus on the implications of using SSM conceptualization when estimating metabolic fluxes from oxygen dynamics in channels where hyporheic exchange occurs. We use a new multiscale numerical model for reactive transport in streams that represents hyporheic exchange and streambed heterotrophic respiration. Nondimensionalization of this model reveals dimensionless groups that collectively control oxygen dynamics. Numerical experiments offer a mechanistic understanding of the impacts of hyporheic exchange on diel oxygen dynamics revealing that potential biases arise from neglecting mass transfer limitations. Specifically, we found that hyporheic exchange significantly affects diel oxygen dynamics, even for nonreactive streambed sediments. Moreover, while the SSM performs well in many situations, we find conditions where significant bias is produced by hyporheic exchange, even when oxygen data are well‐fitted. These situations pose a major challenge in the interpretation of metabolism assessment estimates.

Gomez‐Velez, Jesus D. [Oak Ridge National Laborato↗

DOE OSTI2025

Hardware-Efficient Quantum Phase Estimation via Local Control

Quantum phase estimation plays a central role in quantum simulation as it enables the study of spectral properties of many-body quantum systems. Most variants of the phase estimation algorithm require the application of the global unitary evolution conditioned on the state of one or more auxiliary qubits, posing a significant challenge for current quantum devices. In this work, we present an approach to quantum phase estimation that uses only locally controlled operations, resulting in a significantly reduced circuit depth. At the heart of our approach are efficient routines to measure the complex phase of the expectation value of the time-evolution operator, the so-called Loschmidt echo, for both circuit dynamics and Hamiltonian dynamics. By tracking changes in the phase during the dynamics, the routines trade circuit depth for increased sampling cost and classical postprocessing. Our approach does not rely on reference states and is applicable to any efficiently preparable state, regardless of its correlations. We provide a comprehensive analysis of the sample complexity and illustrate the results with numerical simulations. Our methods offer a practical pathway for measuring spectral properties in large many-body quantum systems using current quantum devices.

Schiffer, Benjamin F. [Max Planck Institute of Qua↗

DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian learning with Gaussian processes for low-dimensional representations of time-dependent nonlinear systems

This work presents a data-driven method for learning low-dimensional time-dependent physics-based surrogate models whose predictions are endowed with uncertainty estimates. We use the operator inference approach to model reduction that poses the problem of learning low-dimensional model terms as a regression of state space data and corresponding time derivatives by minimizing the residual of reduced system equations. Standard operator inference models perform well with accurate training data that are dense in time, but producing stable and accurate models when the state data are noisy and/or sparse in time remains a challenge. Another challenge is the lack of uncertainty estimation for the predictions from the operator inference models. Our approach addresses these challenges by incorporating Gaussian process surrogates into the operator inference framework to (1) probabilistically describe uncertainties in the state predictions and (2) procure analytical time derivative estimates with quantified uncertainties. The formulation leads to a generalized least-squares regression and, ultimately, reduced-order models that are described probabilistically with a closed-form expression for the posterior distribution of the operators. The resulting probabilistic surrogate model propagates uncertainties from the observed state data to reduced-order predictions. Furthermore, we demonstrate the method is effective for constructing low-dimensional models of two nonlinear partial differential equations representing a compressible flow and a nonlinear diffusion–reaction process, as well as for estimating the parameters of a low-dimensional system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations representing compartmental models in epidemiology.

Data-driven model reduction↗

DOE OSTI2020

An Inductor Current Estimation Approach for DC/DC Converters Based on Bisection Method

The trends toward higher power density and efficiency for the DC/DC converters has posed more strict requirements for inductors. The inductor current in turn affect the operating characteristics of the converters significantly and thus needs to be accurately estimated. In this paper, a new bisection-method-based inductor current estimation approach considering the variation of inductance is proposed. The proposed approach can be adapted and applied for various DC/DC converters, including the widely used buck and boost converters and etc. Comparing to the conventional estimation method using constant inductance, the proposed method can obtain more precise estimations of both the inductor current waveform and the power loss. Experimental results on a buck converter with a ferrite-core inductor are presented to validate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

Zhao, Zhe↗

DOE OSTI2023

Machine learning models for estimating contamination across different curbside collection strategies

Contaminated recyclables, which are frequently discarded as waste, pose a significant challenge to the implementation of a circular economy. These contaminated recyclables impede the circulation of resources, resulting in higher processing costs at material recovery facilities (MRFs). Over the past few decades, machine learning (ML) models such as linear regression (LR), support vector machine (SVM), and random forest (RF) have evolved to provide new methods for predicting inbound contamination rates in addition to traditional statistical models. In this study, we applied ML models to predict inbound contamination rates using demographic features from 15 counties in the U.S. with different curbside collection strategies. In general, we found that ML models outperformed linear mixed models. Specifically, SVM models had the highest performance (R 2 = 0.75; mean absolute error (MAE) = 0.06), which may be due to their ability to model nonlinear relationships between features and inbound contamination rates. Further, the key predictor was population, with poverty rate being positively correlated and median age negatively correlated with inbound contamination rates. To improve the management of contamination and enhance the implementation of a circular economy, better models are needed to understand and estimate inbound contamination rates as well as identify critical factors in the present and future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Identifying snowfall elevation patterns by assimilating satellite-based snow depth retrievals

Precipitation in mountain regions is highly variable and poorly measured, posing important challenges to water resource management. Traditional methods to estimate precipitation include in-situ gauges, Doppler weather radars, satellite radars and radiometers, numerical modeling and reanalysis products. Each of these methods is unable to adequately capture complex orographic precipitation. Here, we propose a novel approach to characterize orographic snowfall over mountain regions. We use a particle batch smoother to leverage satellite information from Sentinel-1 derived snow depth retrievals and to correct various gridded precipitation products. This novel approach is tested using a simple snow model for an alpine basin located in Trentino Alto Adige, Italy. Here, we quantify the precipitation biases across the basin and found that the assimilation method (i) corrects for snowfall biases and uncertainties, (ii) leads to cumulative snowfall elevation patterns that are consistent across precipitation products, and (iii) results in overall improved basin-wide snow variables (snow depth and snow cover area) and basin streamflow estimates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Fertilizer management for global ammonia emission reduction

Crop production is a large source of atmospheric ammonia (NH 3 ), which poses risks to air quality, human health and ecosystems. However, estimating global NH 3 emissions from croplands is subject to uncertainties because of data limitations, thereby limiting the accurate identification of mitigation options and efficacy. In this report we develop a machine learning model for generating crop-specific and spatially explicit NH 3 emission factors globally (5-arcmin resolution) based on a compiled dataset of field observations. We show that global NH 3 emissions from rice, wheat and maize fields in 2018 were 4.3 ± 1.0 Tg N yr -1 , lower than previous estimates that did not fully consider fertilizer management practices. Furthermore, spatially optimizing fertilizer management, as guided by the machine learning model, has the potential to reduce the NH3 emissions by about 38% (1.6 ± 0.4 Tg N yr -1 ) without altering total fertilizer nitrogen inputs. Specifically, we estimate potential NH3 emissions reductions of 47% (44–56%) for rice, 27% (24–28%) for maize and 26% (20–28%) for wheat cultivation, respectively. Under future climate change scenarios, we estimate that NH3 emissions could increase by 4.0 ± 2.7% under SSP1–2.6 and 5.5 ± 5.7% under SSP5–8.5 by 2030–2060. However, targeted fertilizer management has the potential to mitigate these increases.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Local models for scatter estimation and descattering in polyenergetic X-ray tomography

We propose a new modeling approach for scatter estimation and descattering in polyenergetic X-ray computed tomography (CT) based on fitting models to local neighborhoods of a training set. X-ray CT is widely used in medical and industrial applications. X-ray scatter, if not accounted for during reconstruction, creates a loss of contrast in CT reconstructions and introduces severe artifacts including cupping, shading, and streaks. Even when these qualitative artifacts are not apparent, scatter can pose a major obstacle in obtaining quantitatively accurate reconstructions. Our approach to estimating scatter is, first, to generate a training set of 2D radiographs with and without scatter using particle transport simulation software. To estimate scatter for a new radiograph, we adaptively fit a scatter model to a small subset of the training data containing the radiographs most similar to it. We compared local and global (fit on full data sets) versions of several X-ray scatter models, including two from the recent literature, as well as a recent deep learning-based scatter model, in the context of descattering and quantitative density reconstruction of simulated, spherically symmetrical, single-material objects comprising shells of various densities. Our results show that, when applied locally, even simple models provide state-of-the-art descattering, reducing the error in density reconstruction due to scatter by more than half.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Bayesian Neural Network Variational Autoencoder Inverse Mapper (BNN-VAIM) and its application in Compton Form Factors extraction

Abstract We extend the Variational Autoencoder Inverse Mapper (VAIM) framework for the inverse problem of extracting Compton Form Factors (CFFs) from deeply virtual exclusive reactions, such as the unpolarized Deeply virtual exclusive scattering (DVCS) cross section. VAIM is an end-to-end deep learning framework to address the solution ambiguity issue in ill-posed inverse problems, which comprises of a forward mapper and a backward mapper to simulate the forward and inverse processes, respectively. In particular, we incorporate Bayesian Neural Network (BNN) into the VAIM architecture (BNN-VAIM) for uncertainty quantification. By sampling the weights and biases distributions of the BNN in the backward mapper of the VAIM, BNN-VAIM is able to estimate prediction uncertainty associated with each individual solution obtained for an ill-posed inverse problem. We first demonstrate the uncertainty quantification capability of BNN-VAIM in a toy inverse problem. Then, we apply BNN-VAIM to the inverse problem of extracting 8 CFFs from the unpolarized DVCS cross section.

Instruments & Instrumentation↗

DOE OSTI2023

Certifiably Correct Range-Aided SLAM

We present the first algorithm capable of efficiently computing certifiably optimal solutions to range-aided simultaneous localization and mapping (RA-SLAM) problems. Robotic navigation systems are increasingly incorporating point-to-point ranging sensors, leading state estimation which takes the form of RA-SLAM. However, the RA-SLAM problem is more difficult to solve than traditional pose-graph SLAM; ranging sensor models introduce additional non-convexity, unlike pose-pose or pose-landmark measurements, a single range measurement does not uniquely determine the relative transform between the involved sensors, and RA-SLAM inference is highly sensitive to initial estimates. Our approach relaxes the RA-SLAM problem to a semidefinite program (SDP), which we show how to solve efficiently using the Riemannian staircase methodology. The solution of this SDP provides a high-quality initialization for our original RA-SLAM problem, which is subsequently refined via local optimization, as well as a lower-bound on the RA-SLAM problem's optimal value. Our algorithm, named certifiably correct RA-SLAM (CORA), applies to problems comprised of arbitrary pose-pose, pose-landmark, and ranging measurements. Evaluation on simulated and real-world marine examples shows that our algorithm frequently produces certifiably optimal RA-SLAM solutions; moreover, even suboptimal estimates are typically within 1-2\% of the optimal value.

Papalia, Alan↗

DOE OSTI2025

Thermal-Fluid and Thermal-Structural Response of the T-Tube Modular Divertor to Spatiotemporally Varying Heat Loads

Tungsten (W) is the leading candidate for divertor target plates because of its high melting point (>3000°C), thermal conductivity, and ultimate tensile stress. While W and its alloys are the only solid materials that can survive the high heat fluxes incident on the divertor, W’s low-ductility high ductile-to-brittle transition temperature of ~600°C and relatively low recrystallization temperature (RT) of ~1300°C pose structural (among other) challenges. The objective of this work is to estimate the thermal-fluid and thermal-structural performance of the helium (He)-cooled T-tube divertor, which was originally developed by the Advanced Reactor Innovation and Evaluation Study (ARIES) using numerical simulations. Here, predictions of temperature distributions across the plasma-facing structural component and surface pressures from computational fluid dynamics simulations are used to determine stress distributions using commercial structural finite element modeling software over a range of fusion-relevant conditions. The maximum allowable incident heat fluxes are determined based on the temperature limits imposed by the ITER elastic Structural Design Criteria for In-vessel Components (SDC-IC) and the maximum RT over a range of He mass flow rates and presented in the form of performance design charts. Our recent work found that thermal- structural criteria accounting for the low ductility of W in a finger-type modular divertor constrain the maximum incident heat fluxes to values well below the ITER specifications, and those based on considering only the RT demonstrate that integrated thermal-fluid and elastic structural performance evaluation are required for accurate assessment of divertor performance. This novel analysis of the T-tube considers how nonuniform and transient incident heat fluxes affect its thermal-fluid and thermal-structural performance, as well as the effect of volumetric heating, which can be as great as 27% of the power incident on the divertor surface. The W tile of the T-tube, with its relatively large plasma-facing area of ~15 cm 2 , will likely experience significant spatial variations in incident heat flux. This work therefore assesses whether steady-state incident heat flux profiles with a peak of 10 MW/m 2 and maximum heat flux gradients of 200 MW/m 2 per m exceed the structural limits imposed by the ITER elastic SDC-IC and the maximum RT over a range of fusion-relevant conditions. The effect of transient heat fluxes typical of plasma detachment and reattachment from the target plate due, for example, to gas injection are also evaluated

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Linking climate change and human systems: a case study of Arctic pipelines

This case study estimates the potential economic risk from permafrost thaw on oil and gas pipelines in the Russian Arctic as part of a larger effort to better understand complex interactions between human and earth systems in the Arctic. Pan-Arctic simulations of permafrost thaw-depth from the Community Land Model version 4.5 and ground ice characteristics were used to generate ground subsidence projections over the period 2020 to 2040 with a quantification of uncertainty. Russian oil and gas transmission pipeline networks were then overlaid on the permafrost thaw projections in ArcGIS to identify pipelines vulnerable to damage from permafrost thaw. Recent pipeline construction costs were used to estimate the total replacement costs for at-risk pipelines under several thaw scenarios. The results indicate that permafrost thaw poses a major threat to pipeline infrastructure, especially gas pipelines, in the Russian Arctic. Over the twenty-year study period, total replacement costs for oil and gas pipelines were estimated at $\$$110 billion in 2020 USD. Reduced economic viability of pipelines under climate change will likely trigger major shifts in the Russian oil and gas industry, which would have impacts on markets, emissions, and geopolitics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

ZTF-SEDm Type Ia supernova sample for Twins Embedding spectrophotometric standardization

Aims. This paper has two aims: the first aim is to build a large homogeneous spectrophotometric sample of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) from the second data release of the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF DR2). We used the spectrum sample from the low-resolution ( R ∼ 100) SEDmachine (SEDm) Integral Field Spectrograph (IFS) that gathered 3069 spectra. This is one of the largest samples of such collections that can attempt to reproduce the Twins Embedding (TE) spectrophotometric standardization method. This is our second objective. The method was developed based on high-quality spectra from 200 SNe Ia of the Nearby Supernova factory (SNfactory) and led to an exceptionally low value of 0.073 mag for the intrinsic scatter. Methods. As the SEDm is not designed as a spectrophotometric instrument, we first improved the flux-calibration accuracy of the SN Ia spectrum sample using the ZTF photometric data, which were calibrated at the percent level. We corrected the spectra for second-order polynomials, fitted by comparing the synthetic photometry in the ZTF g , r , i filters with the light-curve (LC) data. We then applied the three steps of the TE parameterization to a subset of 783 ZTF SN spectra near maximum light while comparing results from SNfactory and ZTF. We finally analyzed the standardization methods based on the TE parameters. Results. The precision of the phase-correction model, which is the first step of the TE, is estimated at 0.01 mag in g band based on ZTF data. Despite the challenge posed by the spectrum-extraction pipeline associated with the SEDm (flux calibration, leftover host signal, low signal-to-noise ratio, and low resolution), we applied a first standardization in color based on the second step of the TE, called read between the lines (RBTL), to the ZTF sample. We reached a Hubble residual scatter of 0.153 mag, all in normalized median absolute deviation, which is to be compared to the ∼0.11 mag obtained with the SNfactory data. The SALT color and stretch standardization reaches a scatter of 0.164 mag for the same ZTF SN Ia sample, and its host steps are ∼0.1 mag and zero for RBTL. When considering the scatter due to the redshift error and flux calibration error, we estimated a RBTL scatter of ∼0.129 mag for this ZTF sample as an upper limit because we identified an additional contribution from a systematic error in color. We tested the standardization based on the nonlinear TE parameters, and, as expected from the low spectrum quality, it did not improve the overall dispersion. Conclusions. We release 1897 flux calibrated spectra of 1607 SNe Ia with an estimated photometric accuracy of 0.07 mag. We further demonstrate that some amount of spectrophotometric SN Ia standardization can be done with limited-quality spectra. The RBTL standardization is more efficient than that of SALT with one parameter less, and the resulting host steps are consistent with zero. This makes it less prone to astrophysical bias. For future spectroscopic surveys, targeting the extraction pipeline for a thorough flux calibration and good signal-to-noise ratio would enable us to compute the full TE standardization, which would further reduce the scatter in the distance estimate.

Ganot, C↗