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Boundary layer simulator improvement

Boundary Layer Integral Matrix Procedure (BLIMPJ) has been identified by the propulsion community as the rigorous boundary layer program in connection with the existing JANNAF reference programs. The improvements made to BLIMPJ and described herein have potential applications in the design of the future Orbit Transfer Vehicle engines. The turbulence model is validated to include the effects of wall roughness and a way is devised to treat multiple smooth-rough surfaces. A prediction of relaminarization regions is examined as is the combined effects of wall cooling and surface roughness on relaminarization. A turbulence model to represent the effects of constant condensed phase loading is given. A procedure is described for thrust decrement calculation in thick boundary layers by coupling the T-D Kinetics Program and BLIMPJ and a way is provided for thrust loss optimization. Potential experimental studies in rocket nozzles are identified along with the required instrumentation to provide accurate measurements in support of the presented new analytical models.

Praharaj, Sarat C.↗

Comparison of Human Exploration Architecture and Campaign Approaches

As part of an overall focus on space exploration, National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) continues to evaluate potential approaches for sending humans beyond low Earth orbit (LEO). In addition, various external organizations are studying options for beyond LEO exploration. Recent studies include NASA's Evolvable Mars Campaign and Design Reference Architecture (DRA) 5.0, JPL's Minimal Mars Architecture; the Inspiration Mars mission; the Mars One campaign; and the Global Exploration Roadmap (GER). Each of these potential exploration constructs applies unique methods, architectures, and philosophies for human exploration. It is beneficial to compare potential approaches in order to better understand the range of options available for exploration. Since most of these studies were conducted independently, the approaches, ground rules, and assumptions used to conduct the analysis differ. In addition, the outputs and metrics presented for each construct differ substantially. This paper will describe the results of an effort to compare and contrast the results of these different studies under a common set of metrics. The paper will first present a summary of each of the proposed constructs, including a description of the overall approach and philosophy for exploration. Utilizing a common set of metrics for comparison, the paper will present the results of an evaluation of the potential benefits, critical challenges, and uncertainties associated with each construct. The analysis framework will include a detailed evaluation of key characteristics of each construct. These will include but are not limited to: a description of the technology and capability developments required to enable the construct and the uncertainties associated with these developments; an analysis of significant operational and programmatic risks associated with that construct; and an evaluation of the extent to which exploration is enabled by the construct, including the destinations visited and the exploration capabilities provided at those destinations. Based upon the comparison of constructs, the paper will identify trends and lessons learned across all of the candidate studies.

Goodliff, Kandyce↗

Risk Trade-Space Analysis for Safe Human Expeditions to Mars

We assessed the integrated safety, health, and performance risk to crews on long-duration missions, specifically to Mars. Using a systems approach rather than one focused on individual countermeasures, we examined the trade space around several such risks to identify high-potential risk mitigation strategies and characterize aspects of Mars mission architectures that could lower aggregated risk. Current Mars Design Reference missions would require durations well over two years and would increase crew exposure to radiation and microgravity well beyond ISS levels, likely resulting in significantly reduced performance beyond our current capability to mitigate that could jeopardize mission success. A “fast Mars transit” round-trip mission concept was studied using an innovative flight dynamics approach to quantify the minimum total mission energy required for a Mars transit with total mission duration less than 400 days. This approach holds promise for sending humans to Mars and returning them safely with acceptable, potentially mitigatable, exposure to microgravity and radiation using current or near-term technologies. The fast transit concept would also result in fewer time-driven vehicle failures and enable sustainable deployment of humans and infrastructure to Mars on a regular cadence, allowing steady exploration and colonization of Mars. Finally, we conclude that reliance on the Low Earth Orbit (LEO) mission operations paradigm – i.e., one of near-complete real-time dependence on experts at Mission Control to manage the combined state of the mission, vehicle, and crew – is high risk given the communication delays and limited resupply of any Mars mission, and this risk is not eliminated by the shorter missions durations of fast transit scenarios. Based on historical trends, it is highly likely that the crew will face a high-consequence problem of uncertain origin during Mars transit when ground support will be greatly reduced. While it may be possible to reduce anomaly rates through improved reliability analysis and testing, and to reduce anomaly impacts through added robustness, such mitigations address only known failure modes and known uncertainties. Therefore, a radical shift in the Human-Systems Integration Architecture (HSIA) that defines the operational paradigm, systems design, and human-systems interactions is required to improve the risk posture to an acceptable level regardless of mission duration.

Mars↗

Simply Fabricatable Reference Electrode for Studying Li Metal Interfaces Operando

Reference electrodes are essential for studying Li metal interfaces, yet their integration into coin cells remains challenging due to geometric constraints and assembly complexity. Here, we present a simple three-electrode coin cell design in which a thin Cu film is evaporated directly onto a trilayer PP/PE/PP separator, forming a conductive and flexible in situ current collector. The microporous Cu preserves separator porosity and pressure uniformity, avoiding artifacts introduced by wire- or mesh-type references. It is easily activated by Li plating and provides stable potentials for over 10 days in ether-based electrolytes without affecting Coulombic efficiency (>99%) or Li deposition morphology. Operando measurements using this design reveal electrode-specific impedance evolution and voltage responses otherwise obscured in two-electrode setups, uncovering a correlation between the SEI resistance and electrolyte ionic conductivity. This microporous Cu reference electrode offers a robust and accessible platform for characterizing reactive interfaces under realistic cycling conditions.

Sacci, Robert [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000200735221)↗

Preliminary Study of the Fuel Saving Potential of Regenerative Turbofans for Commercial Subsonic Transports

The fuel savings potential of regenerative turbofans was calculated and compared with that of a reference turbofan. At the design altitude of 10.67 km and Mach 0.80, the turbine-inlet-temperature of the regenerative turbofan was fixed at 1700 K while the overall pressure ratio was varied from 10 to 20. The fan pressure ratio was fixed at 1.6 and the bypass ratio varied from 8 to 10. The heat exchanger design parameters such as pressure drop and effectiveness varied from 4 to 8 percent and from 0.80 to 0.90, respectively. Results indicate a fuel savings due to regeneration of 4.1 percent and no change in takeoff gross weight.

Kraft, G. A.↗

Development and application of the Manned Maneuvering Unit, work restraint system, stowage container and return line tether

The Manned Maneuvering Unit (MMU), a self-contained zero-gravity backpack designed for astronaut extravehicular activity, is discussed with reference to the system requirements and characteristics, and potential near-term and future uses. Attention is given to the MMU man-machine interfaces, propulsion capability, attitude control, crew restraint hardware, donning, doffing, activation, and deactivation. Specific applications discussed include: spacecraft inspection and servicing, assembly of large space systems, payload deployment/retrieval, and crew rescue.

Bergonz, F. H.↗

Exoskeletal Engine Concept: Feasibility Studies for Medium and Small Thrust Engines

The exoskeletal engine concept is one in which the shafts and disks are eliminated and are replaced by rotating casings that support the blades in spanwise compression. Omission of the shafts and disks leads to an open channel at the engine centerline. This has immense potential for reduced jet noise and for the accomodation of an alternative form of thruster for use in a combined cycle. The use of ceramic composite materials has the potential for significantly reduced weight as well as higher working temperatures without cooling air. The exoskeletal configuration is also a natural stepping-stone to complete counter-rotating turbomachinery. Ultimately this will lead to reductions in weight, length, parts count and improved efficiency. The feasibility studies are in three parts. Part I-Systems and Component Requirements addressed the mechanical aspects of components from a functionality perspective. This effort laid the groundwork for preliminary design studies. Although important, it is not felt to be particularly original, and has therefore not been included in the current overview. Part 2-Preliminary Design Studies turned to some of the cycle and performance issues inherent in an exoskeletal configuration and some initial attempts at preliminary design of turbomachinery were described. Twin-spoon and single-spool 25.800-lbf-thrust turbofans were used as reference vehicles in a mid-size commercial subsonic category in addition to a single-spool 5,000-lbf-thrust turbofan that represented a general aviation application. The exoskeletal engine, with its open centerline, has tremendous potential for noise suppression and some preliminary analysis was done which began to quantify the benefits. Part 3-Additional Preliminary Design Studies revisited the design of single-spool 25,800-lbf-thrust turbofan configurations, but in addition to the original FPR = 1.6 and BPR = 5.1 reference engine, two additional configurations used FPR = 2.4 and BPR = 3.0 and FPR = 3.2 and BPR = 2.0 were investigated. The single-spool 5,000-lbf-thrust turbofan was refined and the small engine study was extended to include a 2,000-lbf-thrust turbojet. More attention was paid to optimizing the turbomachinery. Turbine cooling flows were eliminated, in keeping with the use of uncooled CMC material in exoskeletal engines. The turbine performance parameters moved much closer to the nominal target values, demonstrating the great benefits to the cycle of uncooled turbines.

Halliwell, Ian↗

Reference Site Conditions for Floating Wind Arrays in the United States

Floating offshore wind farm design is highly site-specific, requiring detailed information about the specific conditions of a project area for realistic design studies. Unfortunately, publicly available site condition data for potential floating offshore wind project sites in the United States is scarce. To support U.S. offshore wind research, we developed reference site condition datasets, including metocean and seabed information, for four potential floating wind project areas in the U.S.: Humboldt Bay, Morro Bay, the Gulf of Maine, and the Gulf of Mexico. These datasets were compiled using publicly available data. Our metocean analysis, covering wind, waves, and surface currents, utilized measurement data from 2000 to 2020. Sources included the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s National Offshore Wind Dataset for wind data, National Data Buoy Center buoys for wave data, and the High Frequency Radar Network for surface currents. These data were integrated into hourly time series used to compute extreme return periods up to 500 years, monthly statistics, and joint probability clusters for fatigue analysis. Soil conditions were evaluated using the usSEABED database and bathymetry grids were interpolated from the NCEI Digital Elevation Model Global Mosaic. In addition to providing curated reference site condition datasets for four U.S. areas, our assessment highlights the need for more publicly available metocean and soil condition data.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Exoskeletal Engine Concept: Feasibility Studies for Medium and Small Thrust Engines

The exoskeletal engine concept is one in which the shafts and disks are eliminated and are replaced by rotating casings that support the blades in spanwise compression. Omission of the shafts and disks leads to an open channel at the engine centerline. This has immense potential for reduced jet noise and for the accommodation of an alternative form of thruster for use in a combined cycle. The use of ceramic composite materials has the potential for significantly reduced weight as well as higher working temperatures without cooling air. The exoskeletal configuration is also a natural stepping-stone to complete counter-rotating turbomachinery. Ultimately this will lead to reductions in weight, length, parts count and improved efficiency. The feasibility studies are in three parts. Part 1: Systems and Component Requirements addressed the mechanical aspects of components from a functionality perspective. This effort laid the groundwork for preliminary design studies. Although important, it is not felt to be particularly original, and has therefore not been included in the current overview. Part 2: Preliminary Design Studies turned to some of the cycle and performance issues inherent in an exoskeletal configuration and some initial attempts at preliminary design of turbomachinery were described. Twin-spoon and single-spool 25,800-lbf-thrust turbofans were used as reference vehicles in a mid-size commercial subsonic category in addition to a single-spool 5,000-lbf-thrust turbofan that represented a general aviation application. The exoskeletal engine, with its open centerline, has tremendous potential for noise suppression and some preliminary analysis was done which began to quantify the benefits. Part 3: Additional Preliminary Design Studies revisited the design of single-spool 25,800-lbf-thrust turbofan configurations, but in addition to the original FPR = 1.6 and BPR = 5.1 reference engine. two additional configurations used FPR = 2.4 and BPR = 3.0 and FPR = 3.2 and BPR = 2.0 were investigated. The single-spool 5.000-lbf-thrust turbofan was refined and the small engine study was extended to include a 2,000-lbf-thrust turbojet. More attention was paid to optimizing the turbomachinery. Turbine cooling flows were eliminated, in keeping with the use of uncooled CMC materials in exoskeletal engines. The turbine performance parameters moved much closer to the nominal target values, demonstrating the great benefits to the cycle of uncooled turbines.

Halliwell, Ian↗

Reference Site Condition Datasets for Floating Wind Arrays in the United States

Floating offshore wind farm design is highly site-specific, requiring detailed information about the specific conditions of a project area for realistic design studies. Unfortunately, publicly available site condition data for potential floating offshore wind project sites in the United States is scarce. To support U.S. offshore wind research, we developed reference site condition datasets, including metocean and seabed information, for four potential floating wind project areas in the U.S.: Humboldt Bay, Morro Bay, the Gulf of Maine, and the Gulf of Mexico. These datasets were compiled using publicly available data. Our metocean analysis, covering wind, waves, and surface currents, utilized measurement data from 2000 to 2020. Sources included the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s National Offshore Wind Dataset for wind data, National Data Buoy Center buoys for wave data, and the High Frequency Radar Network for surface currents. These data were integrated into hourly time series used to compute extreme return periods up to 500 years, monthly statistics, and joint probability clusters for fatigue analysis. Soil conditions were evaluated using the usSEABED database and bathymetry grids were interpolated from the NCEI Digital Elevation Model Global Mosaic. Further information on the datasets and how they were created can be found in: Biglu, M., M. Hall, E. Lozon, S. Housner. 2024. Reference Site Conditions for Floating Wind Arrays in the United States. Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). NREL/TP-5000-89897. The data are also available at: https://github.com/FloatingArrayDesign/SiteConditions The content of each dataset is as follows: _NOW23_wind.txt: Hourly NOW-23 wind data up to a height of 400 meter. _metocean_1hr.txt: Hourly time series including wind, wave, surface current and temperature data. _Summary.xlsx: Metocean data, including extreme values, joint probability distributions and monthly statistics. _usSEABED_soil.csv: Extract of the usSEABED database for this specific site. _bathymetry_200m.txt (and 500m, 1000m): Gridded seabed depth data.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Middeck Active Control Experiment (MACE), phase A

A rationale to determine which structural experiments are sufficient to verify the design of structures employing Controlled Structures Technology was derived. A survey of proposed NASA missions was undertaken to identify candidate test articles for use in the Middeck Active Control Experiment (MACE). The survey revealed that potential test articles could be classified into one of three roles: development, demonstration, and qualification, depending on the maturity of the technology and the mission the structure must fulfill. A set of criteria was derived that allowed determination of which role a potential test article must fulfill. A review of the capabilities and limitations of the STS middeck was conducted. A reference design for the MACE test article was presented. Computing requirements for running typical closed-loop controllers was determined, and various computer configurations were studied. The various components required to manufacture the structure were identified. A management plan was established for the remainder of the program experiment development, flight and ground systems development, and integration to the carrier. Procedures for configuration control, fiscal control, and safety, reliabilty, and quality assurance were developed.

Crawley, Edward F.↗

Preliminary Design of Nuclear Reactor Heat Delivery Systems: Integration with Reference Oil Refinery, Methanol Synthesis, and Hydrogen Production

The Department of Energy’s (DOE) Integrated Energy Systems (IES) program is generating comprehensive analyses validating the opportunity for using nuclear energy in a variety of applications including future clean grids, providing heat for direct use, and providing heat to help reduce emissions in chemical commodities. This work focuses on the preliminary designs of thermal delivery systems that can integrate heat produced from a nuclear core to industrial processes. The key research question that needs to be answered is: what is the prospective method for integrating nuclear generated heat energy into non-electric applications that can facilitate combined heat and power operations by advanced nuclear reactor systems? This research is a composition of case studies showing preliminary conceptual designs for thermal delivery systems integrating advanced nuclear systems with a few industrial systems including high temperature steam electrolysis, a reference oil refinery, and potential future methanol systems that supplant some natural gas use with nuclear energy. Piping and instrumentation diagrams have been developed to show the conceptual integration of nuclear systems with representative industrial systems. Different features of the configurations are dependent on the specific integration requirements including energy source conditions, demand quantity, and require energy application conditions. Design concepts are validated using thermodynamic balance calculations to verify system performance including calculating system losses during transport. Key components: pumps and compressors, heat exchangers, and network piping are reported with key design information and sizing.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

NASA's Next Generation Space Geodesy Program

Requirements for the ITRF have increased dramatically since the 1980s. The most stringent requirement comes from critical sea level monitoring programs: a global accuracy of 1.0 mm, and 0.1mm/yr stability, a factor of 10 to 20 beyond current capability. Other requirements for the ITRF coming from ice mass change, ground motion, and mass transport studies are similar. Current and future satellite missions will have ever-increasing measurement capability and will lead to increasingly sophisticated models of these and other changes in the Earth system. Ground space geodesy networks with enhanced measurement capability will be essential to meeting the ITRF requirements and properly interpreting the satellite data. These networks must be globally distributed and built for longevity, to provide the robust data necessary to generate improved models for proper interpretation of the observed geophysical signals. NASA has embarked on a Space Geodesy Program with a long-range goal to build, deploy and operate a next generation NASA Space Geodetic Network (SGN). The plan is to build integrated, multi-technique next-generation space geodetic observing systems as the core contribution to a global network designed to produce the higher quality data required to maintain the Terrestrial Reference Frame and provide information essential for fully realizing the measurement potential of the current and coming generation of Earth Observing spacecraft. Phase 1 of this project has been funded to (1) Establish and demonstrate a next-generation prototype integrated Space Geodetic Station at Goddard's Geophysical and Astronomical Observatory (GGAO), including next-generation SLR and VLBI systems along with modern GNSS and DORIS; (2) Complete ongoing Network Design Studies that describe the appropriate number and distribution of next-generation Space Geodetic Stations for an improved global network; (3) Upgrade analysis capability to handle the next-generation data; (4) Implement a modern survey system to measure inter-technique vectors for co-location; and (5) Develop an Implementation Plan to build, deploy and operate a next-generation integrated NASA SGN that will serve as NASA's contribution to the international global geodetic network. An envisioned Phase 2 (which is not currently funded) would include the replication of up to ten such stations to be deployed either as integrated units or as a complement to already in-place components provided by other organizations. This talk will give an update on the activities underway and the plans for completion.

Merkowitz, S. M.↗

NASA's Next Generation Space Geodesy Program

Requirements for the ITRF have increased dramatically since the 1980s. The most stringent requirement comes from critical sea level monitoring programs: a global accuracy of 1.0 mm, and 0.1mm/yr stability, a factor of 10 to 20 beyond current capability. Other requirements for the ITRF coming from ice mass change, ground motion, and mass transport studies are similar. Current and future satellite missions will have ever-increasing measurement capability and will lead to increasingly sophisticated models of these and other changes in the Earth system. Ground space geodesy networks with enhanced measurement capability will be essential to meeting the ITRF requirements and properly interpreting the satellite data. These networks must be globally distributed and built for longevity, to provide the robust data necessary to generate improved models for proper interpretation of the observed geophysical signals. NASA has embarked on a Space Geodesy Program with a long-range goal to build, deploy and operate a next generation NASA Space Geodetic Network (SGN). The plan is to build integrated, multi-technique next-generation space geodetic observing systems as the core contribution to a global network designed to produce the higher quality data required to maintain the Terrestrial Reference Frame and provide information essential for fully realizing the measurement potential of the current and coming generation of Earth Observing spacecraft. Phase 1 of this project has been funded to (1) Establish and demonstrate a next-generation prototype integrated Space Geodetic Station at Goddard s Geophysical and Astronomical Observatory (GGAO), including next-generation SLR and VLBI systems along with modern GNSS and DORIS; (2) Complete ongoing Network Design Studies that describe the appropriate number and distribution of next-generation Space Geodetic Stations for an improved global network; (3) Upgrade analysis capability to handle the next-generation data; (4) Implement a modern survey system to measure inter-technique vectors for co-location; and (5) Develop an Implementation Plan to build, deploy and operate a next-generation integrated NASA SGN that will serve as NASA s contribution to the international global geodetic network. An envisioned Phase 2 (which is not currently funded) would include the replication of up to ten such stations to be deployed either as integrated units or as a complement to already in-place components provided by other organizations. This talk will give an update on the activities underway and the plans for completion.

Pearlman, M. R.↗

Results from study of potential early commercial MHD power plants and from recent ETF design work

The study deals with different 'moderate technology' entry-level commercial MHD power plants. Two of the reference plants are based on combustion of coal with air preheated in a high-temperature regenerative air heater separately fired with a low-BTU gas produced in a gasifier integrated with the power plant. The third reference plant design is based on the use of oxygen enriched combustion air. Performance calculations show that an overall power plant efficiency of the order of 44% can be reached with the use of oxygen enrichment.

Hals, F.↗

Potential Advantages of Conducting Short Duration Visits to the Martian Surface

Recent NASA concepts for human missions to Mars, including the Evolvable Mars Campaign and Design Reference Architecture 5.0, have focused on the conduct of missions with long duration stays on the Martian surface. The decision to focus on long duration missions (typically to a single site) is driven by a desire to increase the perceived sustainability of the human Mars campaign, predicated on the assumption that sustainability is best achieved by maximizing the level of activity on the surface, providing for continuous growth in operations, and promoting pioneering of Mars. However, executing a series of long duration missions to a single site is not the only option for human exploration of Mars that has been proposed. Other architectures have been evaluated that focus on missions with short duration surface stays, with each mission visiting a separate site on the surface. This type of architecture is less efficient in that elements are not typically reused from one mission to the next but requires a far less complex surface architecture. There are potentially valid arguments to be made that a short duration, multiple site approach could result in different types of advantages when compared to the long duration, single site approach to Mars exploration, particularly for initial human missions to Mars. These arguments revolve around four areas: Achieved Value, Risk Mitigation, Developmental Affordability, and Operational Affordability & Flexibility. The question of Achieved Value relates to the prioritization of goals for Martian exploration. As discussed, goals related to pioneering and expanding human presence are often referenced as justifications for the long duration approach. However, there are other competing goals, including science and exploration. While there is not a clear consensus among planetary scientists, many have argued that the value of being able to visit multiple sites could outweigh the value of continually visiting a single site. Risk Mitigation is a major concern for initial human missions to Mars. There are a number of hazards related to operating on the Martian surface that are not well characterized. It may be desirable to conduct a series of short duration missions to better understand the nature of these risks prior to committing to a long duration mission. Developmental Affordability relates to the ability of NASA and its partners to develop and deploy the proposed architecture. Any human missions to Mars will be among the most complex endeavors ever undertaken. The capabilities that must be developed to enable any human Mars missions are extremely challenging. The total design, development, test, and evaluation (DDT&E) budget required to develop just the essential capabilities alone will be substantial. If additional surface capabilities are required to support long duration surface stays, the development effort could be unaffordable. Operational Affordability & Flexibility relates to the continued costs to execute the Mars campaign. Long duration missions, even with some amount of in-situ resource utilization, require a significant level of resupply for every mission. This requires additional launches and in-space transportation assets, increasing the operational complexity and total operational cost. This paper will explore each of the four potential advantages of short duration missions in detail. The authors will present comparisons between proposed long duration and short duration architectures through an evaluation of relevant performance, cost, and risk metrics.

Stromgren, Chel↗

The Exploration of Mars Launch and Assembly Simulation

Advancing human exploration of space beyond Low Earth Orbit, and ultimately to Mars, is of great interest to NASA, other organizations, and space exploration advocates. Various strategies for getting to Mars have been proposed. These include NASA's Design Reference Architecture 5.0, a near-term flyby of Mars advocated by the group Inspiration Mars, and potential options developed for NASA's Evolvable Mars Campaign. Regardless of which approach is used to get to Mars, they all share a need to visualize and analyze their proposed campaign and evaluate the feasibility of the launch and on-orbit assembly segment of the campaign. The launch and assembly segment starts with flight hardware manufacturing and ends with final departure of a Mars Transfer Vehicle (MTV), or set of MTVs, from an assembly orbit near Earth. This paper describes a discrete event simulation based strategic visualization and analysis tool that can be used to evaluate the launch campaign reliability of any proposed strategy for exploration beyond low Earth orbit. The input to the simulation can be any manifest of multiple launches and their associated transit operations between Earth and the exploration destinations, including Earth orbit, lunar orbit, asteroids, moons of Mars, and ultimately Mars. The simulation output includes expected launch dates and ascent outcomes i.e., success or failure. Running 1,000 replications of the simulation provides the capability to perform launch campaign reliability analysis to determine the probability that all launches occur in a timely manner to support departure opportunities and to deliver their payloads to the intended orbit. This allows for quantitative comparisons between alternative scenarios, as well as the capability to analyze options for improving launch campaign reliability. Results are presented for representative strategies.

Cates, Grant↗

The Exploration of Mars Launch and Assembly Simulation

Advancing human exploration of space beyond Low Earth Orbit, and ultimately to Mars, is of great interest to NASA, other organizations, and space exploration advocates. Various strategies for getting to Mars have been proposed. These include NASA's Design Reference Architecture 5.0, a near-term flyby of Mars advocated by the group Inspiration Mars, and potential options developed for NASA's Evolvable Mars Campaign. Regardless of which approach is used to get to Mars, they all share a need to visualize and analyze their proposed campaign and evaluate the feasibility of the launch and on-orbit assembly segment of the campaign. The launch and assembly segment starts with flight hardware manufacturing and ends with final departure of a Mars Transfer Vehicle (MTV), or set of MTVs, from an assembly orbit near Earth. This paper describes a discrete event simulation based strategic visualization and analysis tool that can be used to evaluate the launch campaign reliability of any proposed strategy for exploration beyond low Earth orbit. The input to the simulation can be any manifest of multiple launches and their associated transit operations between Earth and the exploration destinations, including Earth orbit, lunar orbit, asteroids, moons of Mars, and ultimately Mars. The simulation output includes expected launch dates and ascent outcomes i.e., success or failure. Running 1,000 replications of the simulation provides the capability to perform launch campaign reliability analysis to determine the probability that all launches occur in a timely manner to support departure opportunities and to deliver their payloads to the intended orbit. This allows for quantitative comparisons between alternative scenarios, as well as the capability to analyze options for improving launch campaign reliability. Results are presented for representative strategies.

Cates, Grant↗