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At least 55 records · Page 3

Characteristics of Precipitation, Cloud, and Latent Heating Associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation

This study investigates the evolution of cloud and rainfall structures associated with Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) using Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data. Two complementary indices are used to define MJO phases. Joint probability distribution functions (PDFs) of cloud-top temperature and radar echo-top height are constructed for each of the eight MJO phases. The genesis stage of MJO convection over the western Pacific (phases 1 and 2) features a bottom-heavy PDF, characterized by abundant warm rain, low clouds, suppressed deep convection, and higher sea surface temperature (SST). As MJO convection develops (phases 3 and 4), a transition from the bottom-heavy to top-heavy PDF occurs. The latter is associated with the development of mixed-phase rain and middle-to-high clouds, coupled with rapid SST cooling. At the MJO convection peak (phase 5), a top-heavy PDF contributed by deep convection with mixed-phase and ice-phase rain and high echo-top heights (greater than 5 km) dominates. The decaying stage (phases 6 and 7) is characterized by suppressed SST, reduced total rain, increased contribution from stratiform rain, and increased nonraining high clouds. Phase 7, in particular, signals the beginning of a return to higher SST and increased warm rain. Phase 8 completes the MJO cycle, returning to a bottom-heavy PDF and SST conditions similar to phase 1. The structural changes in rain and clouds at different phases of MJO are consistent with corresponding changes in derived latent heating profiles, suggesting the importance of a diverse mix of warm, mixed-phase, and ice-phase rain associated with low-level, congestus, and high clouds in constituting the life cycle and the time scales of MJO.

Lau, K-M.↗

The Inland Maintenance and Reintensification of Tropical Storm Bill (2015). Part II: Precipitation Microphysics

Tropical Storm Bill produced over 400 mmof rainfall to portions of southern Oklahoma from 16-20 June 2015, adding to the catastrophic urban and river flooding that occurred throughout the region in the month prior to landfall. The unprecedented excessive precipitation event that occurred across Oklahoma and Texas during May and June 2015 resulted in anomalously high soil moisture and latent heat fluxes over the region, acting to increase the available boundary layer moisture. Tropical Storm Bill progressed inland over the region of anomalous soil moisture and latent heat fluxes which helped maintain polarimetric radar signatures associated with tropical, warm rain events. Vertical profiles of polarimetric radar variables such as Z(H), Z(DR), K(DP), and ρ(hv) were analyzed in time and space over Texas and Oklahoma. The profiles suggest that Tropical Storm Bill maintained warm rain signatures and collision-coalescence processes as it tracked hundreds of kilometers inland away from the landfall point consistent with tropical cyclone precipitation characteristics. Dual-frequency precipitation radar observations from the NASA GPM DPR were also analyzed post-landfall and showed similar signatures of collision-coalescence while Bill moved over north Texas, southern Oklahoma, eastern Missouri, and western Kentucky.

Noah S. Brauer↗

Laser powder bed fusion of ODS Fe–Cr–Al (0.3Zr, 0.3Y 2 O 3 ): Unveiling processing-microstructure- mechanical property relationships

Here, this study investigates the fabrication of oxide dispersion strengthened (ODS) Fe-Cr-Al alloys via laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) with strategic additions of 0.3 wt% Zr and 0.3 wt% Y 2 O 3 for enhanced mechanical performance in nuclear applications. Systematic processing parameter optimization yielded three distinct conditions: one low-density product with significant defects and two near-full-density materials with improved consolidation. Comprehensive characterization confirmed single-phase α-ferrite matrix formation with successful incorporation of Y-, Zr-, O-, and C-rich precipitates characteristic of ODS alloys. However, precipitate density remained low (∼10 7 cm −3 ), resulting in sink strength values substantially below optimal levels for radiation resistance. Microhardness values (mid-200s HV) correlated inversely with grain size following the Hall-Petch relationship, indicating grain boundary strengthening as the dominant mechanism rather than precipitation strengthening. The optimized processing conditions achieved excellent mechanical properties with room temperature yield strength of approximately 500 MPa and 30 % elongation, demonstrating superior strength-ductility synergy compared to other additively manufactured ODS materials and performance consistent with literature values for LPBF-processed ODS-FeCrAl alloys. This investigation reveals both the potential and limitations of LPBF processing for ODS Fe-Cr-Al alloys. While successful defect-free fabrication was achieved, results highlight the critical need for systematic optimization of processing parameters and post-processing heat treatments to enhance precipitate density for effective dispersion strengthening and radiation resistance while maintaining additive manufacturing advantages.

Additive manufacturing↗

Assessment of WRF (v 4.2.1) dynamically downscaled precipitation on subdaily and daily timescales over CONUS

Abstract. This study analyzes the quality of simulated historical precipitation across the contiguous United States (CONUS) in a 12 km Weather Research and Forecasting model version 4.2.1 (WRF v 4.2.1)-based dynamical downscaling of the fifth-generation ECMWF atmospheric reanalysis (ERA5). This work addresses the following questions. First, how well are the 3 and 24 h precipitation characteristics (diurnal and annual cycles, precipitation frequency, annual and seasonal mean and maximum precipitation, and distribution of seasonal maximum precipitation) represented in the downscaled simulation, compared to ERA5? And second, how does the performance of the simulated WRF precipitation vary across seasons, regions, and timescales? Performance is measured against the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/Environmental Modeling Center (NCEP/EMC) 4 km Stage IV and Oregon State University Parameter-Elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) data on 3 and 24 h timescales, respectively. Our analysis suggests that the 12 km WRF exhibits biases typically found in other WRF simulations, including those at convection-permitting scales. In particular, WRF simulates both the timing and magnitude of the summer diurnal precipitation peak as well as ERA5 over most of the CONUS, except for a delayed diurnal peak over the Great Plains. As compared to ERA5, both the month and the magnitude of the precipitation peak annual cycle are remarkably improved in the downscaled WRF simulation. WRF slightly overestimates 3 and 24 h precipitation maximum over the CONUS, in contrast to ERA5, which generally underestimates these quantities mainly over the eastern half of the CONUS. Notably, WRF better captures the probability density distribution (PDF) of 3 and 24 h annual and seasonal maximum precipitation. WRF exhibits seasonally dependent precipitation biases across the CONUS, while ERA5's biases are relatively consistent year round over most of the CONUS. These results suggest that dynamical downscaling to a higher resolution improves upon some precipitation metrics but is susceptible to common regional climate model biases. Consequently, if used as input data for domain-specific models, we suggest moderate bias correction be applied to the dynamically downscaled product.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Classification of auroral precipitation fluxes by characteristic parameters and their effects on the coupling of the precipitation to the ambient ionosphere

The spectral shapes of the precipitating auroral electron flux spectra are quantified by an automated fitting procedure which represents each flux spectrum as a superposition of Maxwellian and Gaussian partial fluxes. This makes it possible to represent each spectrum by a set of characteristic parameters which describe the shape of that spectrum. A set of inverted-V events observed by the Low-Energy Plasma Instrument on Dynamics Explorer 2 near the fall 1981 equinox, has been analyzed. The distribution of the peak inverted-V energies in magnetic local time and invariant latitude (IL) has been obtained, and it is shown that by far the highest peak energies occur in the range of IL between 65 and 70 and MLT between 18 and 24 hrs. It is also shown how the difference in spectral characteristics of the precipitation fluxes between the cusp and the nighttime auroral zone determines the thermal coupling of the precipitation to the ambient ionosphere.

Fontheim, E. G.↗

Precipitation of radiation belt electrons by man-made waves A comparison between theory and measurement

The temporal and spectral shape and the absolute flux level of particle pulses precipitated by a VLF transmitter are examined from a theoretical point of view. A test-particle model of the gyroresonant wave-particle interaction is applied to the parameters of the observed cases for calculating the precipitation characteristics. The temporal shapes of the precipitation pulses are found to be controlled (1) by the pitch angle dependence of the particle distribution near the edge of the loss cone and (2) by the multiple interaction of the particles with the waves due to significant atmospheric backscatter.

Inan, U. S.↗

Eastern Pacific Cloud Aerosol Precipitation Experiment (EPCAPE) Science Plan

Coastal cities provide the opportunity to characterize marine clouds and the substantial effects of manmade particles on cloud properties and processes. La Jolla lies to the north of San Diego, California, but it is often about a day directly downwind of the major pollution sources located in the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. The large dynamic range of aerosol particle concentrations combined with the multi-hour to multi-day persistence of stratocumulus cloud layers makes the site ideal for investigating the seasonal changes in cloud and aerosol properties as well as the quantitative relationships between cloud and aerosol properties. The focus of the Eastern Pacific Cloud Aerosol Precipitation Experiment (EPCAPE) is to characterize the extent, radiative properties, aerosol interactions, and precipitation characteristics of stratocumulus clouds in the Eastern Pacific across all four seasons at a coastal location, the Scripps Pier and the Scripps Mt. Soledad sites in La Jolla. An important enhancement to this study will be the collection of simultaneous in-cloud aerosol and droplet measurements to investigate the differences in these cloud properties during regional polluted and clean marine conditions. The combined observations will provide an unprecedented set of constraints for the following questions: 1. Cloud and Aerosol Climatology: What are the seasonal and diurnal cycles of marine stratocumulus cloud and aerosol properties on the northeastern Pacific coast? 2. Cloud Radiative Fluxes: How do cloud properties, including the ratio of direct-to-diffuse radiation, change as coastal clouds are advected inland? 3. Aerosol-Cloud Interactions: Will retrieved cloud properties reflect the regional signatures of aerosol?

Eastern Pacific Cloud Aerosol Precipitation Experi↗

Evaluating Precipitation Events Using GPM IMERG 30-Minute Near Real-Time Precipitation Estimates

Accurately detecting and estimating precipitation at near–real time (NRT) is of utmost importance for the early detection and monitoring of hydrometeorological hazards. The precipitation product, Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (IMERG), provides NRT 0.1° and 30-min precipitation estimates across the globe with only a 4-h latency. This study was an evaluation of the GPM IMERG version 6 level-3 early run 30-min precipitation product for precipitation events from 2014 through 2020. The purpose of this research was to identify when, where, and why GPM IMERG misidentified and failed to detect precipitation events in California, Nevada, Arizona, and Utah in the United States. Precipitation events were identified based on 15-min precipitation from gauges and 30-min precipitation from the IMERG multisatellite constellation. False-positive and false-negative precipitation events were identified and analyzed to determine their characteristics. Precipitation events identified by gauges had longer duration and had higher cumulative precipitation than those identified by GPM IMERG. GPM IMERG had many false event detections during the summer months, suggesting possible virga event detection, which is when precipitation falls from a cloud but evaporates before it reaches the ground. The frequency and timing of the merged passive microwave (PMW) product and forward propagation were responsible for IMERG overestimating cumulative precipitation during some precipitation events and underestimating others. This work can inform experts that are using the GPM IMERG NRT product to be mindful of situations where GPM IMERG–estimated precipitation events may not fully resolve the hydrometeorological conditions driving these hazards.

Jessica R P Sutton↗

Summer mean and extreme precipitation over the Mid-Atlantic region: climatological characteristics and contributions from different precipitation types

Based on a long-term observational dataset from the tracking of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), isolated deep convection (IDC), and tropical cyclones (TCs), we examine the climatological characteristics of summer mean and extreme precipitation during 2004 – 2017 and their respective contributions from MCS, IDC, TC, and non-convective (NC) systems and the local vs. remote influence of MCS and IDC over the MAR. On average, MCS, IDC, TC, and NC contribute 22%, 29%, 4%, and 45% to the total summer mean precipitation in the region. While MCS and TC precipitation primarily occurs in the coastal areas east of the Appalachian Mountains, IDC precipitation is more concentrated in the southern MAR and near the mountain windward slopes. Each summer, ~41 MCSs with an average lifetime of 19.6 hours influence the MAR, with 80% initiated outside and traveling on average 10 hours to the region. Around 13 MCSs initiated in the Great Plains and Midwest propagate across the Appalachian Mountains and contribute 20-40% to summer MCS precipitation in the central Mid-Atlantic coastal areas. In contrast, more than 2000 IDCs with an average lifetime of 2.0 hours influence the MAR each summer, and 77% are initiated locally. MCS, IDC, TC, and NC contribute 31% (30%), 26% (31%), 18% (7%), and 26% (32%) to the top 1% (5%) extreme daily precipitation, respectively. Considering extreme hourly precipitation, however, the IDC contributions increase to 41% (top 1%) and 38% (top 5%) due to the shorter duration of IDC events than the other precipitation types.

Li, Jianfeng↗

Effect of the Grell-Freitas Deep Convection Scheme in Quasi-Uniform and Variable-Resolution Aquaplanet CAM Simulations

The Grell-Freitas deep convection scheme (GF) has been implemented in the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) with the nonhydrostatic Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) dynamical core. Aquaplanet simulations have been performed with a global quasi-uniform resolution mesh with ~120 km grid spacing and a variable resolution mesh employing a circular refined region with ~30 km grid spacing centering at the equator and ~120 km elsewhere. GF produces overall patterns of the general circulations comparable to those of other aquaplanet experiments, including those produced using the default Zhang-McFarlane convection scheme (ZM) in CAM Version 5.4. GF alleviates the overestimated occurrence of weak intensity precipitation characteristic of ZM due to GF’s different closure methods and deep-convection trigger conditions. Compared to ZM, the GF characteristics of the equatorial Kelvin waves are closer to observations. GF also better simulates precipitation at variable resolution, with no unrealistic wave distortion by the refinement. Overall, GF shows less sensitivity of convective precipitation and heating/moistening tendencies to changes in horizontal resolution compared to ZM. However, vertically-overlapped total cloud fraction simulated with GF in the tropics is more sensitive to the resolution than ZM due to the larger resolution-sensitivity of high-level cloud fraction in the tropics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Sampling problems: The small scale structure of precipitation

The quantitative measurement of precipitation characteristics for any area on the surface of the Earth is not an easy task. Precipitation is rather variable in both space and time, and the distribution of surface rainfall data given location typically is substantially skewed. There are a number of precipitation process at work in the atmosphere, and few of them are well understood. The formal theory on sampling and estimating precipitation appears considerably deficient. Little systematic attention is given to nonsampling errors that always arise in utilizing any measurement system. Although the precipitation measurement problem is an old one, it continues to be one that is in need of systematic and careful attention. A brief history of the presently competing measurement technologies should aid us in understanding the problem inherent in this measurement task.

Crane, R. K.↗

Evaluation of Modeled Precipitation in Oceanic Extratropical Cyclones Using IMERG

Using the high spatial and temporal resolution precipitation dataset Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG), extratropical cyclone precipitation is evaluated in two reanalyses and two climate models. Based on cyclone-centered composites, all four models overestimate precipitation in the western subsiding and dry side of the cyclones, and underestimate the precipitation in the eastern ascending and moist side. By decomposing the composites into frequency of occurrence and intensity (mean precipitation rate when precipitating), the analysis reveals a tendency for all four models to overestimate frequency and underestimate intensity, with the former issue dominating in the western half and the latter in the eastern half of the cyclones. Differences in frequency are strongly dependent on cyclone environmental moisture, while the differences in intensity are strongly impacted by the strength of ascent within the cyclone. There are some uncertainties associated with the observations: IMERG might under-report frozen precipitation and possibly exaggerate rates in vigorously ascending regions. Nevertheless, the analysis suggests that all models produce extratropical cyclone precipitation too often and too lightly. These biases have consequences when evaluating the changes in precipitation characteristics with changes in cyclone properties: the models disagree on the magnitude of the change in precipitation intensity with a change in environmental moisture and in precipitation frequency with a change in cyclone strength. This complicates accurate predictions of precipitation changes in a changing climate.

Catherine M Naud↗

Polarization Difference - The Scientific Story Behind One Variable and Its Practical Applications

Cloud ice and snow microphysical characteristics play an important role in determining cloud radiative effect. They are also closely connected to the details of surface precipitation characteristics. Ice orientation is one microphysical property that is traditionally believed to have trivial impact on the weather systems/climate, and it is hard to measure from space. In this presentation, I will show how many scientific stories can be told from one variable – the brightness temperature difference between vertically-polarized and horizontally-polarized 166 GHz measurements from the Global Precipitation Measurement Microwave Imager (GPM-GMI). Through scrutinizing collocated CloudSat, GMI and GPM radar observations together with the aid of radiative transfer model simulations, we can not only tell apart the particle size, shape and orientation, but also understand the precipitation regime as well as the life stage of a a precipitation system. In the second half of my talk, I will showcase how this variable can be used for predicting precipitation flags and separating mixed-phase cloud from liquid and ice with the powerful machine learning/artificial intelligence (ML/AI) technique.

cloud ice and snow microphysical characteristics↗

Mesoscale Convective Systems During SCSMEX: Simulations with a Regional Climate Model and a Cloud-Resolving Model

The South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX) was conducted in May-June 1998. One of its major objectives is to better understand the key physical processes for the onset and evolution of the summer monsoon over Southeast Asia and southern China. Multiple observation platforms (e.g., upper-air soundings, Doppler radar, ships, wind profilers, radiometers, etc.) during SCSMEX provided a first attempt at investigating the detailed characteristics of convection and circulation changes associated with monsoons over the South China Sea region. SCSMEX also provided precipitation derived from atmospheric budgets and comparison to those obtained from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). In this paper, a regional scale model (with grid size of 20 km) and Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model (with 1 km grid size) are used to perform multi-day integration to understand the precipitation processes associated with the summer monsoon over Southeast Asia and southern China. The regional climate model is used to understand the soil-precipitation interaction and feedback associated with a flood event that occurred in and around China's Yantz River during SCSMEX Sensitivity tests on various land surface models, sea surface temperature (SST) variations, and cloud processes are performed to understand the precipitation processes associated with the onset of the monsoon over the S. China Sea during SCSMEX. These tests have indicated that the land surface model has a major impact on the circulation over the S. China Sea. Cloud processes can effect the precipitation pattern while SST variation can effect the precipitation amounts over both land and ocean. The exact location (region) of the flooding can be effected by the soil-rainfall feedback. The GCE-model results captured many observed precipitation characteristics because it used a fine grid size. For example, the model simulated rainfall temporal variation compared quite well to the sounding-estimated rainfall. The results show there are more latent heat fluxes prior to the onset of the monsoon. However, more rainfall was simulated after the onset of the monsoon. This modeling study indicates the latent heat fluxes (or evaporation) have more of an impact on precipitation processes and rainfall in the regional climate model simulations than in the cloud-resolving model simulations. Research is underway to determine if the difference in the grid sizes or the moist processes used in these two models is responsible for the differing influence of surface fluxes an precipitation processes.

Tao, W.-K.↗

Assessment of Storm-Associated Precipitation and Its Extremes Using Observational Data Sets and Climate Model Short-Range Hindcasts

Heavy precipitation, often associated with weather phenomena such as tropical cyclones, extratropical cyclones (ETCs), atmospheric rivers (ARs), and mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), can cause significant socio-economic loss. Here, in this study, we apply atmospheric feature trackers to quantify the contributions of these storm types in observational data sets and climate model short-range hindcasts. We generate a global hourly storm data set at 0.25° spatial resolution covering 2006–2020, based on the tracking results from TempestExtremes and Python FLEXible object TRacKeR. Our analyses show that these four storm types account for 67% of global annual mean precipitation and 82% of top 1% precipitation extremes, with MCSs mainly over the tropics, and ARs and ETCs over the midlatitudes. The percentage of precipitation contributions from these storms also show strong seasonality over many geographical locations. We further apply the tracking results to the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) short-range hindcasts and evaluate how well these storms are simulated. The evaluation show that E3SM, with ∼1° resolution, significantly underestimates storm-associated precipitation totals and extremes, especially for MCSs in the tropics. Our analysis also suggests that model fails to capture the correct mean diurnal phases and amplitude of MCS precipitation. This phenomenon-based approach provides a better understanding of precipitation characteristics and can lead to enhanced model evaluation by revealing underlying problems in model physics related to precipitation processes associated with the heavy-precipitating storms.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Factors leading to the formation of arc cloud complexes

A total of 12 mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) were investigated. The duration of the gust front, produced by each MCS, was used to classify the MCSs. Category 1 MCSs were defined as ones that produced a gust front and the gust front lasted for more than 6 h. There were 7 category 1 MCSs in the sample. Category 2 MCSs were defined as ones that produced a gust front and the gust front lasted for 6 h or less. There were 4 category 2 MCSs. The MCS of Case 12 was not categorized because the precipitation characteristics were similar to a squall line, rather than an MCS. All of the category 1 MCSs produced arc cloud complexes (ACCs), while only one of the category 2 MCSs produced an ACC. To determine if there were any differences in the characteristics between the MCSs of the two categories, composite analyses were accomplished. The analyses showed that there were significant differences in the characteristics of category 1 and 2 MCSs. Category 1 MCSs, on average, had higher thunderstorm heights, greater precipitation intensities, colder cloud top temperatures and produced larger magnitudes of surface divergence than category 2 MCSs.

Welshinger, Mark John↗