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At least 55 records · Page 3

Numerically Testing Conceptual Models of the Utah FORGE Reservoir Using July 2024 Circulation Test Data

Over the past several years, many new data sets have become available regarding the characterization of the Utah FORGE reservoir. These include, but are not limited to, the stimulation of Well 16A, the drilling and completion of Well 16B, and interwell circulation confirmatory testing. As part of the characterization efforts, conceptual models of the reservoir are re-examined as new data become available. As part of the planning for FORGE activities, numerical models are often used to predict the reservoir response to the planned testing. Stochastic methods are often employed to bound uncertainty and allow for evaluation of comprehensive ranges of key reservoir parameters. For the most recent interwell circulation confirmatory testing (July 2023), a priori numerical model predictions did bound the observed behavior (Xinj et al., 2023), but key deviations from expected behavior prompted the FORGE team to reevaluate our conceptual model of the reservoir. In early October 2023, key members of the development, testing, and monitoring teams met for 2 days to review newly collected data and discuss ‘interesting’ or ‘key’ observations. From these discussions, 15 Key Observations were documented, with several significant ones being that the discrete fracture network developed from the 16A stimulation data may not be appropriate and that the early time pressure data obtained during the summer 2023 reservoir testing were best described using radial solutions. In July 2023, two campaigns of interwell confirmatory testing were conducted, the first set of tests occurred on July 4-5 and the second set on July 18-19. The second set of circulation tests conducted at the Utah FORGE site between the injection well 16A(78)-32 and production well 16B(78)-32 on July 18 and 19, 2023 are used to calibrate material properties in a thermal-hydraulic-mechanical (THM) simulation of the discrete fracture network connecting the wells. The spatially and temporally varying reservoir properties are calibrated to match the time dependent pressure and production profiles from the circulation tests. In future work, this calibrated model will be coupled to the native state THM model of the FORGE reservoir to predict surface deformation and strains resulting from pumping schedules.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Remote isotope detection and quantification using femtosecond filament-laser ablation molecular isotopic spectrometry

We demonstrate the detection and quantification of isotopes from solid samples remotely at a distance of 36 m. This was accomplished through the combination of femtosecond filaments and laser ablation molecular isotopic spectrometry (F 2 -LAMIS). Isotopically enriched graphite samples with varying 13 C concentration were used and the F 2 -LAMIS emission was measured remotely using a portable spectrometer system. A standardless quantification approach was used to determine the corresponding isotopic ratios. The use of F 2 -LAMIS for the detection and quantification of isotopes at atmospheric pressure without the use of calibration standards opens the possibility to implement this technology for remote sensing of isotopes in field applications

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

Fault Slip and Fluid Flow: Seismic Source Analysis to Assess Role of Multiple Slip Patches in Fault Permeability

The relationship between fault reactivation, microearthquakes (MEQs), and permeability evolution during fluid injection plays a critical role in energy harvesting and waste disposal. Recent studies have demonstrated the possibility of predicting fault permeability using cumulative seismic moments of MEQs quantitatively. To understand the underlying physical processes, we conduct fault reactivation experiments using Utah FORGE granitoid and analyze acoustic emission (AE) signals generated during stepwise increases in fluid injection pressure. Frequency analysis of thousands of calibrated AE signals reveals that fault reactivation produces multiple AE source patches with millimeter-scale radii—smaller than the sample fault radius. The cumulative area of the reactivated patches covers the fault multiple times over (∼10x–50x area) for each pressure step. These findings provide mechanistic insight that measured permeability enhancement is not driven by a single large slip event, but by the sequential and interacting activation of multiple slip patches that create a continuous flow pathway.

Nurshal, M. E. M. [Pennsylvania State University, ↗

Strength of porous α-SiO 2 in a shock loaded environment: Calibration via Richtmyer–Meshkov instability and validation via Mach lens

The strength of brittle porous media is of concern in numerous applications, for example, earth penetration, crater formation, and blast loading. Thus, it is of importance to possess techniques that allow for constitutive model calibration within the laboratory setting. The goal of the current work is to demonstrate an experimental technique allowing for strength assessment of porous media subjected to shock loading, which can be implemented into pressure-dependent yield surfaces within numerical simulation schemes. As a case study, the deviatoric response of distended α-SiO 2 has been captured in a tamped Richtmyer–Meshkov instability (RMI) environment at a pressure regime of 4–10 GPa. Hydrocode simulations were used to interpret RMI experimental data, and a resulting pressure-dependent yield surface akin to the often employed modified Drucker–Prager model was calibrated. Simulations indicate that the resulting jet length generated by the RMI is sensitive to the porous media strength, thereby providing a feasible experimental platform capable of capturing the pressurized granular deviatoric response. Furthermore, in efforts to validate the RMI-calibrated strength model, a set of Mach-lens experiments was performed and simulated with the calibrated pressure-dependent yield surface. Excellent agreement between the resulting Mach-lens length in experiment and simulation provides additional confidence to the RMI yield-surface calibration scheme.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Utilizing Environmental Tracers to Reduce Groundwater Flow and Transport Model Parameter Uncertainties

Abstract Non‐uniqueness in groundwater model calibration is a primary source of uncertainty in groundwater flow and transport predictions. In this study, we investigate the ability of environmental tracer information to constrain groundwater model parameters. We utilize a pilot point calibration procedure conditioned to subsets of observed data including: liquid pressures, tritium ( 3 H), chlorofluorocarbon‐12 (CFC‐12), and sulfur hexafluoride (SF 6 ) concentrations; and groundwater apparent ages inferred from these environmental tracers, to quantify uncertainties in the heterogeneous permeability fields and infiltration rates of a steady‐state 2‐D synthetic aquifer and a transient 3‐D model of a field site located near Riverton, Wyoming (USA). To identify the relative data worth of each observation data type, the post‐calibration uncertainties of the optimal parameters for a given observation subset are compared to that from the full observation data set. Our results suggest that the calibration‐constrained permeability field uncertainties are largest when liquid pressures are used as the sole calibration data set. We find significant reduction in permeability uncertainty and increased predictive accuracy when the environmental tracer concentrations, rather than apparent groundwater ages, are used as calibration targets in the synthetic model. Calibration of the Riverton field site model using environmental tracer concentrations directly produces infiltration rate estimates with the lowest uncertainties, however; permeability field uncertainties remain similar between the environmental tracer concentration and apparent groundwater age calibration scenarios. This work provides insight on the data worth of environmental tracer information to calibrate groundwater models and highlights potential benefits of directly assimilating environmental tracer concentrations into model parameter estimation procedures.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Scatter Removal using Black Body Grids and Determining the Minimum Resolvable Hydrogen Concentration at MARS

This dataset was used to develop and validate a scatter-correction pipeline for neutron radiographs acquired at the MARS beamline, based on the methodology of Carminati et al. (2019). Scatter removal was performed using 36 gadolinium black bodies to characterize and remove the spatially varying neutron scatter field that cannot be eliminated by conventional open-beam normalization. The dataset comprises eight samples - four single-crystal nickel and four polycrystalline austenitic 316L stainless steel. Within each material system, samples were pre-charged with hydrogen gas at four charging pressures (1.5, 5, 12.5, and 20 kpsi). Following scatter correction, the pipeline was applied to all radiographs to recover quantitative attenuation maps. After subtracting the known attenuation contribution of the metal matrix, spatial maps of the hydrogen attenuation coefficient were obtained for each sample. This data was then used to construct a calibration curve relating hydrogen attenuation to hydrogen concentration and to determine the minimum resolvable hydrogen concentration at the MARS beamline. The resulting dataset provides a pressure-resolved calibration standard for quantitative hydrogen mapping using neutron radiography.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Improvements to CTF Closure Models for Modelling of Two-Phase Flow

This report documents the efforts to improve the CTF prediction of void fraction and two-phase pressure drop by improving two-phase closure models. Previous validation activities have revealed that CTF tends to overpredict void fraction and two-phase pressure drop. In response to this, two approaches were taken to improve CTF’s predictive capabilities. Based on findings that the interfacial drag and subcooled boiling models significantly impact void prediction, alternative closure models for these physical effects were found and implemented into the code. An extensive assessment was performed by using the existing and newly added two-phase experimental data, which showed that void prediction, wall temperature, and two-phase pressure-drop results are improved by using the newly implemented models. A second approach for improving CTF modeling accuracy involved the use of a Bayesian calibration process that uses CTF validation data to optimize selected modeling coefficients and closure model multipliers to achieve a more accurate prediction of experimental results. A similar assessment was performed with calibrated models that improved the void and pressure-drop prediction for test cases that were both included and not included in the calibration dataset. Results of this study will be used to change the models used in CTF to achieve more accurate BWR analyses moving forward. This study also identified opportunities for improving additional closure models and other opportunities to use calibration techniques to improve CTF.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Quarterly Management Document – FY20, 2nd Quarter, Physics-based Creep Simulations of Thick Section Welds in High Temperature and Pressure Applications

During the 2nd quarter of FY20, calibration of the creep model was made using experimental creep data on base metal at temperatures between 700-800 C. The model simulated primary and secondary creep behavior at these temperatures but tended to over estimate creep strain in the tertiary regime at 700 C while underestimating it at higher temperatures. Additional issues were also discovered and will be looked at in greater detail in the 3rd quarter of FY20.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Confirmation of PNNL Quantitative Infrared Cross-Sections for Isobutane

The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) gas-phase database is a compilation of quantitative experimental (5, 25, 50 °C) infrared spectra of ca. 500 molecules, designed for in situ, standoff or remote sensing of gases and vapors at or near atmospheric pressure. The data are characterized by calibration on both the wavenumber and intensity axes. Recent papers have called into question the PNNL intensity values for isobutane, (2-methylpropane, HC(CH 3 ) 3 ) suggesting discrepancies of 30 to 40%. In this study we re-measure and re-examine the intensity values of isobutane using both similar and alternate methods to those used to generate the original PNNL database spectra. Here, indirect confirmation from literature data of homologous molecules and direct confirmation from new results confirm that for many band integrals across the isobutane spectrum, the original PNNL data are indeed accurate to within the reported 3% experimental uncertainty.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Synopsis of SURF and SURFplus

Developed by Menikoff and Shaw, the SURF reactive burn model builds on the Ignition and Growth concept by incorporating the lead shock pressure directly into the volumetric hot-spot burn rate. The plus-extension augments the model with a late time surface burn rate due to carbon clustering. Together, SURF and SURFplus allow for robust modeling of both conventional and insensitive high explosives. Practically, the SURF burn models require shock detection and the advection of the lead shock pressure as an additional material field. Calibrated parameters for given equations of state and thermodynamic closure are dependent on initial temperature and density. An implementation in Python is given.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Drifting Hydrophone Development - Spar2

Oregon State University (OSU) is requesting technical assistance for design configuration, assembly, and bench testing of 4 state-of-the-art drifting hydrophone systems per OSU technical specification and aligned with IEC TS 62600 -40 Acoustic Characterization of Marine Energy Converters. The technical assistance objective of this request will bring online another state-of-the-art drifting hydrophone technology where there is limited availability for these systems for use at marine energy projects. The objectives of the technical assistance will significantly advance OSU’s existing drifting hydrophone technology and enable them to provide important state of the art hydrophone sensors and platforms for monitoring devices in support of marine energy testing activities across the industry. Leveraging the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory’s (PNNL) TEAMER facility expertise will provide significant improvements to this new drifting hydrophone technology with additional added value through hardware and sensor integration, wireless communication, commercial pressure housing modifications, bench testing and calibration.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Micromachined Piezoresistive-sensed Diaphragms for Infrasonic Monitoring

Micromachined, piezoresistive-sensed diaphragms are designed and fabricated specifically for infrasound sensing applications. Relatively large diaphragms, up to 6 mm × 6 mm, are fabricated to meet the high sensitivity requirements of infrasonic monitoring. A double-stack SOI wafer process is used, resulting in a streamlined two-mask process without the need for doping or ion-implantation. Pressure-sensitivities of diaphragms are studied using a custom static calibration set-up. Here, the piezoresistance of longitudinal and transverse resistors are studied over a large pressure range of ±5,500 Pa so that the linear and nonlinear response regions of diaphragms are observed. Measurements are compared against a nonlinear finite element simulation—shown to accurately predict the sensor’s behavior over a large response range.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Waste Control Specialists Technical Review Team Report

1. Modeling of Drum 68660 and the WCS Drums: A calibrated model of Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) Drum 68660 indicates that pressurization of the drum by restriction of drum venting could have led to the thermal runaway reaction at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) in 2014, supporting the hypothesis that the contents of the drum were not fundamentally different from the overall remediated nitrate salt (RNS) waste stream. 2. Nitric Acid Reactions and Aging of the Waste: The stability of the WCS RNS waste with respect to autocatalytic thermal runaway due to nitric acid chemistry should increase over time as the nitric acid is depleted from chemical reactions in the drum. However, this cannot be confirmed because of the lack of long-term experimental data on the impact of aging on the reactivity of RNS waste. The calibrated model indicates that the waste drums retain most of their reactive components, metal nitrate salts and sWheat Scoop ® , even after eight years. 3. Pressure Effects and Runaway Reactions: The calibrated model indicates that if the drums and standard waste boxes (SWBs) are not allowed to pressurize during transport or storage and they are stored at historical WIPP repository temperatures, then an autocatalytic thermal runaway event is not expected to occur. Since the cause of Drum 68660 pressurization is not known, decision makers are not able to tailor mitigating strategies to the initiating event. Consequently, mitigating strategies must consider all feasible internal and external events that could lead to the pressurization of the drums. 4. Temperature Effects and Runaway Reactions: Temperature also has a strong influence on the stability of the waste. The calibrated model indicates that cooling the drums or SWBs can reduce the possibility of autocatalytic thermal runaway reactions. Simulations suggest that for a drum with a plugged vent, the probability of thermal runaway may be reduced or eliminated if wastes are maintained at or below 43 °F through active cooling measures from the initiation of transport until emplacement at WIPP.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Cookoff of Black Powder and Smokeless Powder

We have completed a series of both vented and sealed cookoff experiments of black powder and smokeless powder in our Sandia Instrumented Thermal Ignition (SITI) apparatus at bulk densities of 1078 and 729 kg/m 3 , respectively. The confining aluminum cylinder was ramped from room temperature to a set point temperature and then held at the setpoint temperature until ignition. The setpoint temperatures varied between 495 to 523 K for the black powder and 401 to 412 K for the more sensitive smokeless powder. The vented experiments show a significant delay in thermal ignition, indicating that the ignition is dependent on pressure. Post experimental debris shows greater violence for our smokeless powder experiments than our black powder experiments. A simplified universal cookoff model (UCM) was calibrated using the black powder and smokeless powder SITI data and used to predict pressurization and thermal ignition. The current work presents the first calibration of the UCM with a double base propellant. Finally, this work also presents the first pressure-dependent cookoff model for black powder and smokeless powder.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Atmospheric H 2 observations from the NOAA Cooperative Global Air Sampling Network

Abstract. The NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory (GML) measures atmospheric hydrogen (H2) in grab samples collected weekly as flask pairs at over 50 sites in the Cooperative Global Air Sampling Network. Measurements representative of background air sampling show higher H2 in recent years at all latitudes. The marine boundary layer (MBL) global mean H2 was 552.8 ppb in 2021, 20.2 ± 0.2 ppb higher compared to 2010. A 10 ppb or more increase over the 2010–2021 average annual cycle was detected in 2016 for MBL zonal means in the tropics and in the Southern Hemisphere. Carbon monoxide measurements in the same-air samples suggest large biomass burning events in different regions likely contributed to the observed interannual variability at different latitudes. The NOAA H2 measurements from 2009 to 2021 are now based on the World Meteorological Organization Global Atmospheric Watch (WMO GAW) H2 mole fraction calibration scale, developed and maintained by the Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry (MPI-BGC), Jena, Germany. GML maintains eight H2 primary calibration standards to propagate the WMO scale. These are gravimetric hydrogen-in-air mixtures in electropolished stainless steel cylinders (Essex Industries, St. Louis, MO), which are stable for H2. These mixtures were calibrated at the MPI-BGC, the WMO Central Calibration Laboratory (CCL) for H2, in late 2020 and span the range 250–700 ppb. We have used the CCL assignments to propagate the WMO H2 calibration scale to NOAA air measurements performed using gas chromatography and helium pulse discharge detector instruments since 2009. To propagate the scale, NOAA uses a hierarchy of secondary and tertiary standards, which consist of high-pressure whole-air mixtures in aluminum cylinders, calibrated against the primary and secondary standards, respectively. Hydrogen at the parts per billion level has a tendency to increase in aluminum cylinders over time. We fit the calibration histories of these standards with zero-, first-, or second-order polynomial functions of time and use the time-dependent mole fraction assignments on the WMO scale to reprocess all tank air and flask air H2 measurement records. The robustness of the scale propagation over multiple years is evaluated with the regular analysis of target air cylinders and with long-term same-air measurement comparison efforts with WMO GAW partner laboratories. Long-term calibrated, globally distributed, and freely accessible measurements of H2 and other gases and isotopes continue to be essential to track and interpret regional and global changes in the atmosphere composition. The adoption of the WMO H2 calibration scale and subsequent reprocessing of NOAA atmospheric data constitute a significant improvement in the NOAA H2 measurement records.

Pétron, Gabrielle↗

Quantifying uncertainty in analysis of shockless dynamic compression experiments on platinum. II. Bayesian model calibration

Dynamic shockless compression experiments provide the ability to explore material behavior at extreme pressures but relatively low temperatures. Typically, the data from these types of experiments are interpreted through an analytic method called Lagrangian analysis. Here, in this work, alternative analysis methods are explored using modern statistical methods. Specifically, Bayesian model calibration is applied to a new set of platinum data shocklessly compressed to 570 GPa. Several platinum equation-of-state models are evaluated, including traditional parametric forms as well as a novel non-parametric model concept. The results are compared to those in Paper I obtained by inverse Lagrangian analysis. The comparisons suggest that Bayesian calibration is not only a viable framework for precise quantification of the compression path, but also reveals insights pertaining to trade-offs surrounding model form selection, sensitivities of the relevant experimental uncertainties, and assumptions and limitations within Lagrangian analysis. The non-parametric model method, in particular, is found to give precise unbiased results and is expected to be useful over a wide range of applications. The calibration results in estimates of the platinum principal isentrope over the full range of experimental pressures to a standard error of 1.6%, which extends the results from Paper I while maintaining the high precision required for the platinum pressure standard.

Brown, Justin Lee↗

The equation of state and shock-driven decomposition of polymethylmethacrylate (PMMA)

We present new equations of state (EOS) for polymethylmethacrylate and its shock-driven decomposition products, generated in both tabular form and as linear U S – u p fits to all previously available shock data. Different approaches are taken for materials shocked above and below the apparent threshold for chemical reactions at pressures P ≈ 30 GPa. Both EOSs are calibrated to and compared with a broad array of experimental results, as well as new ab initio molecular dynamics simulations presented here. Comparisons are good in most cases, and we focus our particular attention on those observables that test the distinction between reactants and products.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

The Simons Observatory: science goals and forecasts for the enhanced Large Aperture Telescope

We describe updated scientific goals for the wide-field, millimeter-wave survey that will be produced by the Simons Observatory (SO). Significant upgrades to the 6-meter SO Large Aperture Telescope (LAT) are expected to be complete by 2028, and will include a doubled mapping speed with 30,000 new detectors and an automated data reduction pipeline. In addition, a new photovoltaic array will supply most of the observatory's power. The LAT survey will cover about 60% of the sky at a regular observing cadence, with five times the angular resolution and ten times the map depth of the Planck satellite. The science goals are to: (1) determine the physical conditions in the early universe and constrain the existence of new light particles; (2) measure the integrated distribution of mass, electron pressure, and electron momentum in the late-time universe, and, in combination with optical surveys, determine the neutrino mass and the effects of dark energy via tomographic measurements of the growth of structure at redshifts z ≲ 3; (3) measure the distribution of electron density and pressure around galaxy groups and clusters, and calibrate the effects of energy input from galaxy formation on the surrounding environment; (4) produce a sample of more than 30,000 galaxy clusters, and more than 100,000 extragalactic millimeter sources, including regularly sampled AGN light-curves, to study these sources and their emission physics; (5) measure the polarized emission from magnetically aligned dust grains in our Galaxy, to study the properties of dust and the role of magnetic fields in star formation; (6) constrain asteroid regoliths, search for Trans-Neptunian Objects, and either detect or eliminate large portions of the phase space in the search for Planet 9; and (7) provide a powerful new window into the transient universe on time scales of minutes to years, concurrent with observations from the Vera C. Rubin Observatory of overlapping sky.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗