SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “probability of initiation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 55 records · Page 3

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

NASA NTRS1993

Thermal stress analysis of composites in the space environment

A finite element micromechanics approach was utilized to investigate the thermally induced stress fields in continuous fiber reinforced polymer matrix composites at temperatures typical of spacecraft operating environments. The influence of laminate orientation was investigated with a simple global/local formulation. Thermal stress calculations were used to predict probable damage initiation locations, and the results were compared to experimentally observed damage in several epoxy matrix composites. The influence of an interphase region on the interfacial stress states was investigated.

Bowles, David E.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Electrodynamics of the Inner Magnetosphere Observed in the Dusk Sector by CRRES and DMSP during the Magnetic Storm of June 4-6, 1991

We compare equatorward/earthward boundaries of convection electric fields and auroral/plasma sheet electrons detected by the DMSP F8 and CRRES satellites during the June 1991 magnetic storm. Measurements come from the dusk magnetic local time sector where the ring current penetrates closest to the Earth. The storm was triggered by a rapid increase in the solar wind dynamic pressure accompanied by a southward turning of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). Satellite data show the following: (1) all particle and field boundaries moved equatorward/earthward during the initial phase, probably in response to the strong southward IMF turning; (2) electric field boundaries were either at lower magnetic L shells or close to the inner edge of ring current ions throughout the main and early recovery phases. Penetration earthward of the ring current occurred twice as the polar cap potential increased rapidly; (3) electric potentials at subauroral latitudes were large fractions of the total potentials in the afternoon cell, twice exceeding 60 kV; and (4) the boundaries of auroral electron precipitation were more variable than those of electric fields and mapped to lower L shells than where CRRES encountered plasma sheet electrons. Observations qualitatively agree with predictions of empirical models for auroral electron and electric field boundaries.

Bruke, W. J.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Neocytolysis: physiological down-regulator of red-cell mass

It is usually considered that red-cell mass is controlled by erythropoietin-driven bone marrow red-cell production, and no physiological mechanisms can shorten survival of circulating red cells. In adapting to acute plethora in microgravity, astronauts' red-cell mass falls too rapidly to be explained by diminished red-cell production. Ferrokinetics show no early decline in erythropolesis, but red cells radiolabelled 12 days before launch survive normally. Selective destruction of the youngest circulating red cells-a process we call neocytolysis-is the only plausible explanation. A fall in erythropoietin below a threshold is likely to initiate neocytolysis, probably by influencing surface-adhesion molecules. Recognition of neocytolysis will require re-examination of the pathophysiology and treatment of several blood disorders, including the anaemia of renal disease.

Review, Tutorial↗

NASA NTRS1995

Increase in ubiquitin-protein conjugates concomitant with the increase in proteolysis in rat skeletal muscle during starvation and atrophy denervation

The rapid loss of skeletal-muscle protein during starvation and after denervation occurs primarily through increased rates of protein breakdown and activation of a non-lysosomal ATP-dependent proteolytic process. To investigate whether protein flux through the ubiquitin (Ub)-proteasome pathway is enhanced, as was suggested by related studies, we measured, using specific polyclonal antibodies, the levels of Ub-conjugated proteins in normal and atrophying muscles. The content of these critical intermediates had increased 50-250% after food deprivation in the extensor digitorum longus and soleus muscles 2 days after denervation. Like rates of proteolysis, the amount of Ub-protein conjugates and the fraction of Ub conjugated to proteins increased progressively during food deprivation and returned to normal within 1 day of refeeding. During starvation, muscles of adrenalectomized rats failed to increase protein breakdown, and they showed 50% lower levels of Ub-protein conjugates than those of starved control animals. The changes in the pools of Ub-conjugated proteins (the substrates for the 26S proteasome) thus coincided with and can account for the alterations in overall proteolysis. In this pathway, large multiubiquitinated proteins are preferentially degraded, and the Ub-protein conjugates that accumulated in atrophying muscles were of high molecular mass (> 100 kDa). When innervated and denervated gastrocnemius muscles were fractionated, a significant increase in ubiquitinated proteins was found in the myofibrillar fraction, the proteins of which are preferentially degraded on denervation, but not in the soluble fraction. Thus activation of this proteolytic pathway in atrophying muscles probably occurs initially by increasing Ub conjugation to cell proteins. The resulting accumulation of Ub-protein conjugates suggests that their degradation by the 26S proteasome complex subsequently becomes rate-limiting in these catabolic states.

NASA Discipline Number 40-40↗

NASA NTRS2005

The Hurricane-Flood-Landslide Continuum

In August 2004, representatives from NOAA, NASA, the USGS, and other government agencies convened in San Juan, Puerto Rim for a workshop to discuss a proposed research project called the Hurricane-Flood-Landslide Continuum (HFLC). The essence of the HFLC is to develop and integrate tools across disciplines to enable the issuance of regional guidance products for floods and landslides associated with major tropical rain systems, with sufficient lead time that local emergency managers can protect vulnerable populations and infrastructure. All three lead agencies are independently developing precipitation-flood-debris flow forecasting technologies, and all have a history of work on natural hazards both domestically and overseas. NOM has the capability to provide tracking and prediction of storm rainfall, trajectory and landfall and is developing flood probability and magnTtude capabilities. The USGS has the capability to evaluate the ambient stability of natural and man-made landforms, to assess landslide susceptibilities for those landforms, and to establish probabilities for initiation of landslides and debris flows. Additionally, the USGS has well-developed operational capacity for real-time monitoring and reporting of streamflow across distributed networks of automated gaging stations (http://water.usgs.gov/waterwatch/). NASA has the capability to provide sophisticated algorithms for satellite remote sensing of precipitation, land use, and in the future, soil moisture. The Workshop sought to initiate discussion among three agencies regarding their specific and highly complimentary capabilities. The fundamental goal of the Workshop was to establish a framework that will leverage the strengths of each agency. Once a prototype system is developed for example, in relatively data-rich Puerto Rim, it could be adapted for use in data-poor, low-infrastructure regions such as the Dominican Republic or Haiti. This paper provides an overview of the Workshop s goals, presentations and recommendations with respect to the development of the HFLC.

Negri, Andrew J.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Monte Carlo Technique Used to Model the Degradation of Internal Spacecraft Surfaces by Atomic Oxygen

Atomic oxygen is one of the predominant constituents of Earth's upper atmosphere. It is created by the photodissociation of molecular oxygen (O2) into single O atoms by ultraviolet radiation. It is chemically very reactive because a single O atom readily combines with another O atom or with other atoms or molecules that can form a stable oxide. The effects of atomic oxygen on the external surfaces of spacecraft in low Earth orbit can have dire consequences for spacecraft life, and this is a well-known and much studied problem. Much less information is known about the effects of atomic oxygen on the internal surfaces of spacecraft. This degradation can occur when openings in components of the spacecraft exterior exist that allow the entry of atomic oxygen into regions that may not have direct atomic oxygen attack but rather scattered attack. Openings can exist because of spacecraft venting, microwave cavities, and apertures for Earth viewing, Sun sensors, or star trackers. The effects of atomic oxygen erosion of polymers interior to an aperture on a spacecraft were simulated at the NASA Glenn Research Center by using Monte Carlo computational techniques. A two-dimensional model was used to provide quantitative indications of the attenuation of atomic oxygen flux as a function of the distance into a parallel-walled cavity. The model allows the atomic oxygen arrival direction, the Maxwell Boltzman temperature, and the ram energy to be varied along with the interaction parameters of the degree of recombination upon impact with polymer or nonreactive surfaces, the initial reaction probability, the reaction probability dependence upon energy and angle of attack, degree of specularity of scattering of reactive and nonreactive surfaces, and the degree of thermal accommodation upon impact with reactive and non-reactive surfaces to be varied to allow the model to produce atomic oxygen erosion geometries that replicate actual experimental results from space. The degree of erosion of various interior locations was compared with the erosion that would occur external to the spacecraft. Results of one cavity model indicate that, at depths into a two-dimensional cavity that are equal to 10 cavity widths, the erosion on the walls of the cavity is less than that on the top surface by over 2 orders of magnitude. Wall erosion near the surface of a cavity depends on which wall is receiving direct atomic oxygen attack. However, deep in the cavity little difference is present. Testing of various cavity models such as these gives spacecraft designers an indication of the level of threat to sensitive interior surfaces for different geometries. Even though the Monte Carlo model is two-dimensional, it can be used to provide qualitative information about spacecraft openings that are three-dimensional by offering reasonable insight as to the nature of the attenuation of damage that occurs within a spacecraft in low Earth orbit. As shown, there is more erosion on the side seeing direct atomic oxygen attack until a depth of approximately 5 times the width of the opening, where the erosion is the same on both sides.

Banks, Bruce A.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Adsorption of Water on Simulated Moon Dust Samples

A lunar regolith simulant dust sample (JSC-1a) supported on a silica wafer (SiO2/Si(111)) has been characterized by scanning electron microscopy (SEM), energy dispersive x-ray spectroscopy (EDX), and Auger electron spectroscopy (AES). The adsorption kinetics of water has been studied primarily by thermal desorption spectroscopy (TDS) and also by collecting isothermal adsorption transients. The support has been characterized by water TDS. JSC-1a consists mostly of aluminosilicate glass and other minerals containing Fe, Na, Ca, and Mg. The particle sizes span the range from a few microns up to 100 microns. At small exposures, H2O TDS is characterized by broad (100 to 450 K) structures; at large exposures distinct TDS peaks emerge that are assigned to amorphous solid water (145 K) and crystalline ice (165 K). Water dissociates on JSC-1a at small exposures but not on the bare silica support. It appears that rather porous condensed ice layers form at large exposures. At thermal impact energies, the initial adsorption probability amounts to 0.92+/-0.05.

Goering, John P.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Initial Integration of a Conflict Probabilities Service for Upper Class E Traffic Management

This paper outlines the development and integration of a conflict probability calculation-based service designed for Upper Class E Airspace operations. A key aspect of this effort is the integration of the conflict probability calculation algorithm into a simulated situational awareness client application. This application serves as a tool for flight operators to submit operations for Upper Class E Airspace within a simulated environment. The focus is on validating the effectiveness of the service through simulated intentional conflicting scenarios. The paper delves into the practicalities of integrating the conflict probability service into the user interface of the simulated situational awareness client application. This integration aims to enhance the decision-making capabilities of ETM operators within the simulated environment. The experiments and observations conducted in this simulated facility provide insights into the operational effectiveness of the proposed approach. In conclusion, this paper emphasizes the development, integration, and simulation-based validation of a conflict probability calculation service for Upper Class E Airspace. The findings underscore the potential impact of our approach on decision-making within a simulated setting, contributing to the understanding of its practical applications in operational scenarios.

Upper Class E Traffic Management↗

NASA NTRS2003

Quantum Dynamics Scattering Study of AB+CDE Reactions: A Seven Dimensional Treatment for the H2+C2H Reaction

A time-dependent wave-packet approach is presented for the quantum dynamics study of the AB+CDE reaction system for zero total angular momentum. A seven-degree-of-freedom calculation is employed to study the chemical reaction of H2+C2H yields H + C2H2 by treating C2H as a linear molecule. Initial state selected reaction probabilities are presented for various initial ro-vibrational states. This study shows that vibrational excitation of H2 enhances the reaction probability, whereas the excitation of C2H has only a small effect on the reactivity. An integral cross section is also reported for the initial ground states of H2 and C2H. The theoretical and experimental results agree with each other very well when the calculated seven dimensional results are adjusted to account for the lower transition state barrier heights found in recent ab initio calculations.

Wang, Dunyou↗

DOE OSTI2023

Data-Driven Transition Path Analysis Yields a Statistical Understanding of Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events in an Idealized Model

Abstract Atmospheric regime transitions are highly impactful as drivers of extreme weather events, but pose two formidable modeling challenges: predicting the next event (weather forecasting) and characterizing the statistics of events of a given severity (the risk climatology). Each event has a different duration and spatial structure, making it hard to define an objective “average event.” We argue here that transition path theory (TPT), a stochastic process framework, is an appropriate tool for the task. We demonstrate TPT’s capacities on a wave–mean flow model of sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) developed by Holton and Mass, which is idealized enough for transparent TPT analysis but complex enough to demonstrate computational scalability. Whereas a recent article (Finkel et al. 2021) studied near-term SSW predictability, the present article uses TPT to link predictability to long-term SSW frequency. This requires not only forecasting forward in time from an initial condition, but also backward in time to assess the probability of the initial conditions themselves. TPT enables one to condition the dynamics on the regime transition occurring, and thus visualize its physical drivers with a vector field called the reactive current . The reactive current shows that before an SSW, dissipation and stochastic forcing drive a slow decay of vortex strength at lower altitudes. The response of upper-level winds is late and sudden, occurring only after the transition is almost complete from a probabilistic point of view. This case study demonstrates that TPT quantities, visualized in a space of physically meaningful variables, can help one understand the dynamics of regime transitions.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2026

Structural Aspects of Neutron Survival Probabilities

The neutron survival probability (and related quantities including probabilities of extinction and initiation) is a central element of the broader stochastic theory of neutron populations and finds application in fields including reactor start-up, analysis of reactor power bursts and criticality accidents, and safeguards. In a full neutron transport formulation, the equation governing the single-neutron survival probability is a backward or adjoint-like integro-partial differential equation with the added complexity of being highly nonlinear. Analogous formulations of this equation exist in the context of many approximate theories of neutron transport, with the point kinetics formulation having received significant theoretical attention since the 1940s. This work continues this tradition by providing a novel analysis of the single-neutron survival probability equation using the tools of boundary layer theory. The analysis reveals that the “fully dynamic” solution of the single-neutron survival probability equation—and some key probability distributions derived from it—may be cast as a singular perturbation around the underlying quasi-static single-neutron probability of initiation. In this perturbation solution, the expansion parameter is the ratio of the neutron generation time to a macroscopic time scale characterizing the overall system evolution; this interpretation illuminates some of the fundamental structural aspects of neutron survival phenomena.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1975

A method for the evaluation of damage on the surface of carbon-carbon ablation samples

The effect of weave geometry on the onset of transition from laminar to turbulent flow around a sample of an orthogonally woven fine weave carbon-carbon material tested in an arc-jet is investigated. Seventeen post-test models which had undergone only partial transition around the circumference were examined as to location of turbulent regions relative to the weave axes. It was statistically shown that the weave axes had the lowest probability of being a position of initial transition onset. The probability generally increased with distance from a major axis, with some rays, notably the 45 deg rays, showing better transition resistance than the adjacent rays. The incidence of initial transition onset correlated well with the number of X or Y fibers that the flow passes over from stagnation point to the shoulder.

Heinonen, E. W.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Stochastic modeling of crack initiation and short-crack growth under creep and creep-fatigue conditions

A simplified stochastic model is proposed for crack initiation and short-crack growth under creep and creep-fatigue conditions. Material inhomogeneity provides the random nature of crack initiation and early growth. In the model, the influence of microstructure is introduced by the variability of: (1) damage accumulation along grain boundaries, (2) critical damage required for crack initiation or growth, and (3) the grain-boundary length. The probabilities of crack initiation and growth are derived by using convolution integrals. The model is calibrated and used to predict the crack density and crack-growth rate of short cracks of 304 stainless steel under creep and creep-fatigue conditions. The mean-crack initiation lives are predicted to be within an average deviation of about 10 percent from the experimental results. The predicted cumulative distributions of crack-growth rate follow the experimental data closely. The applicability of the simplified stochastic model is discussed and the future research direction is outlined.

Kitamura, Takayuki↗

NASA NTRS1992

Stochastic modeling of crack initiation and short-crack growth under creep and creep-fatigue conditions

A simplified stochastic model is proposed for crack initiation and short-crack growth under creep and creep-fatigue conditions. Material inhomogeneity provides the random nature of crack initiation and early growth. In the model, the influence of microstructure is introduced by the variability of: (1) damage accumulation along grain boundaries, (2) critical damage required for crack initiation or growth, and (3) the grain-boundary length. The probabilities of crack initiation and growth are derived by using convolution integrals. The model is calibrated and used to predict the crack density and crack-growth rate of short cracks of 304 stainless steel under creep and creep-fatigue conditions. The mean-crack initiation lives are predicted to be within an average deviation of about 10 percent from the experimental results. The predicted comulative distributions of crack-growth rate follow the experimental data closely. The applicability of the simplified stochastic model is discussed and the future research direction is outlined.

Kitamura, Takayuki↗

NASA NTRS2008

Potential Use of a Bayesian Network for Discriminating Flash Type from Future GOES-R Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) data

Continuous monitoring of the ratio of cloud flashes to ground flashes may provide a better understanding of thunderstorm dynamics, intensification, and evolution, and it may be useful in severe weather warning. The National Lighting Detection Network TM (NLDN) senses ground flashes with exceptional detection efficiency and accuracy over most of the continental United States. A proposed Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) aboard the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-R) will look at the western hemisphere, and among the lightning data products to be made available will be the fundamental optical flash parameters for both cloud and ground flashes: radiance, area, duration, number of optical groups, and number of optical events. Previous studies have demonstrated that the optical flash parameter statistics of ground and cloud lightning, which are observable from space, are significantly different. This study investigates a Bayesian network methodology for discriminating lightning flash type (ground or cloud) using the lightning optical data and ancillary GOES-R data. A Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) is set up with lightning as a "root" and data observed by GLM as the "leaves." This allows for a direct calculation of the joint probability distribution function for the lighting type and radiance, area, etc. Initially, the conditional probabilities that will be required can be estimated from the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) and the Optical Transient Detector (OTD) together with NLDN data. Directly manipulating the joint distribution will yield the conditional probability that a lightning flash is a ground flash given the evidence, which consists of the observed lightning optical data [and possibly cloud data retrieved from the GOES-R Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) in a more mature Bayesian network configuration]. Later, actual GLM and NLDN data can be used to refine the estimates of the conditional probabilities used in the model; i.e., the Bayesian network is a learning network. Methods for efficient calculation of the conditional probabilities (e.g., an algorithm using junction trees), finding data conflicts, goodness of fit, and dealing with missing data will also be addressed.

Solakiewiz, Richard↗

DOE OSTI2022

Monte Carlo event generator for initial conditions of conserved charges in nuclear geometry

At top collider energies where baryon stopping is negligible, the initial state of heavy-ion collisions is overall charge neutral and predominantly composed of gluons. Nevertheless, there can also be significant local fluctuations of the baryon number, strangeness, and electric charge densities about zero, perturbatively corresponding to the production of quark/antiquark pairs. These previously ignored local charge fluctuations can permit the study of charge diffusion in the quark-gluon plasma (QGP), even at top collider energies. In this paper we present a new model denoted ICCING (initial conserved charges in nuclear geometry) which can reconstruct the initial conditions of conserved charges in the QGP by sampling a (g→q¯q) splitting probability over the initial energy density. We find that the new charge distributions generally differ from the bulk energy density; in particular, the strangeness distribution is significantly more eccentric than standard bulk observables and appears to be associated with the geometry of hot spots in the initial state. The new information provided by these conserved charges opens the door to studying a wealth of new charge- and flavor-dependent correlations in the initial state and ultimately the charge transport parameters of the QGP.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1973

Rate of reaction between molecular hydrogen and molecular oxygen

The shock tube data of Jachimowski and Houghton were rigorously analyzed to obtain rate constants for the candidate initiation reactions H2 + O2 yields H + HO2, H2 + O2 yields H2O + O, and H2 + O2 yields OH + OH. Reaction (01) is probably not the initiation process because the activation energy obtained is less than the endothermicity and because the derived rates greatly exceed values inferred in the literature from the reverse of reaction (01). Reactions (02) and (03) remain as possibilities, with reaction (02) slightly favored on the basis of steric and statistical considerations. The solution of the differential equations is presented in detail to show how the kinetics of other ignition systems may be solved.

Brokaw, R. S.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Architecture for Integrated Medical Model Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment

Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a modeling tool used to predict potential outcomes of a complex system based on a statistical understanding of many initiating events. Utilizing a Monte Carlo method, thousands of instances of the model are considered and outcomes are collected. PRA is considered static, utilizing probabilities alone to calculate outcomes. Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment (dPRA) is an advanced concept where modeling predicts the outcomes of a complex system based not only on the probabilities of many initiating events, but also on a progression of dependencies brought about by progressing down a time line. Events are placed in a single time line, adding each event to a queue, as managed by a planner. Progression down the time line is guided by rules, as managed by a scheduler. The recently developed Integrated Medical Model (IMM) summarizes astronaut health as governed by the probabilities of medical events and mitigation strategies. Managing the software architecture process provides a systematic means of creating, documenting, and communicating a software design early in the development process. The software architecture process begins with establishing requirements and the design is then derived from the requirements.

Probability Theory↗