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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Initial Integration of a Conflict Probabilities Service for Upper Class E Traffic Management

This paper outlines the development and integration of a conflict probability calculation-based service designed for Upper Class E Airspace operations. A key aspect of this effort is the integration of the conflict probability calculation algorithm into a simulated situational awareness client application. This application serves as a tool for flight operators to submit operations for Upper Class E Airspace within a simulated environment. The focus is on validating the effectiveness of the service through simulated intentional conflicting scenarios. The paper delves into the practicalities of integrating the conflict probability service into the user interface of the simulated situational awareness client application. This integration aims to enhance the decision-making capabilities of ETM operators within the simulated environment. The experiments and observations conducted in this simulated facility provide insights into the operational effectiveness of the proposed approach. In conclusion, this paper emphasizes the development, integration, and simulation-based validation of a conflict probability calculation service for Upper Class E Airspace. The findings underscore the potential impact of our approach on decision-making within a simulated setting, contributing to the understanding of its practical applications in operational scenarios.

Upper Class E Traffic Management↗
NASA NTRS2003

Quantum Dynamics Scattering Study of AB+CDE Reactions: A Seven Dimensional Treatment for the H2+C2H Reaction

A time-dependent wave-packet approach is presented for the quantum dynamics study of the AB+CDE reaction system for zero total angular momentum. A seven-degree-of-freedom calculation is employed to study the chemical reaction of H2+C2H yields H + C2H2 by treating C2H as a linear molecule. Initial state selected reaction probabilities are presented for various initial ro-vibrational states. This study shows that vibrational excitation of H2 enhances the reaction probability, whereas the excitation of C2H has only a small effect on the reactivity. An integral cross section is also reported for the initial ground states of H2 and C2H. The theoretical and experimental results agree with each other very well when the calculated seven dimensional results are adjusted to account for the lower transition state barrier heights found in recent ab initio calculations.

Wang, Dunyou↗
NASA NTRS1975

A method for the evaluation of damage on the surface of carbon-carbon ablation samples

The effect of weave geometry on the onset of transition from laminar to turbulent flow around a sample of an orthogonally woven fine weave carbon-carbon material tested in an arc-jet is investigated. Seventeen post-test models which had undergone only partial transition around the circumference were examined as to location of turbulent regions relative to the weave axes. It was statistically shown that the weave axes had the lowest probability of being a position of initial transition onset. The probability generally increased with distance from a major axis, with some rays, notably the 45 deg rays, showing better transition resistance than the adjacent rays. The incidence of initial transition onset correlated well with the number of X or Y fibers that the flow passes over from stagnation point to the shoulder.

Heinonen, E. W.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Stochastic modeling of crack initiation and short-crack growth under creep and creep-fatigue conditions

A simplified stochastic model is proposed for crack initiation and short-crack growth under creep and creep-fatigue conditions. Material inhomogeneity provides the random nature of crack initiation and early growth. In the model, the influence of microstructure is introduced by the variability of: (1) damage accumulation along grain boundaries, (2) critical damage required for crack initiation or growth, and (3) the grain-boundary length. The probabilities of crack initiation and growth are derived by using convolution integrals. The model is calibrated and used to predict the crack density and crack-growth rate of short cracks of 304 stainless steel under creep and creep-fatigue conditions. The mean-crack initiation lives are predicted to be within an average deviation of about 10 percent from the experimental results. The predicted cumulative distributions of crack-growth rate follow the experimental data closely. The applicability of the simplified stochastic model is discussed and the future research direction is outlined.

Kitamura, Takayuki↗
NASA NTRS1992

Stochastic modeling of crack initiation and short-crack growth under creep and creep-fatigue conditions

A simplified stochastic model is proposed for crack initiation and short-crack growth under creep and creep-fatigue conditions. Material inhomogeneity provides the random nature of crack initiation and early growth. In the model, the influence of microstructure is introduced by the variability of: (1) damage accumulation along grain boundaries, (2) critical damage required for crack initiation or growth, and (3) the grain-boundary length. The probabilities of crack initiation and growth are derived by using convolution integrals. The model is calibrated and used to predict the crack density and crack-growth rate of short cracks of 304 stainless steel under creep and creep-fatigue conditions. The mean-crack initiation lives are predicted to be within an average deviation of about 10 percent from the experimental results. The predicted comulative distributions of crack-growth rate follow the experimental data closely. The applicability of the simplified stochastic model is discussed and the future research direction is outlined.

Kitamura, Takayuki↗
NASA NTRS2008

Potential Use of a Bayesian Network for Discriminating Flash Type from Future GOES-R Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) data

Continuous monitoring of the ratio of cloud flashes to ground flashes may provide a better understanding of thunderstorm dynamics, intensification, and evolution, and it may be useful in severe weather warning. The National Lighting Detection Network TM (NLDN) senses ground flashes with exceptional detection efficiency and accuracy over most of the continental United States. A proposed Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) aboard the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-R) will look at the western hemisphere, and among the lightning data products to be made available will be the fundamental optical flash parameters for both cloud and ground flashes: radiance, area, duration, number of optical groups, and number of optical events. Previous studies have demonstrated that the optical flash parameter statistics of ground and cloud lightning, which are observable from space, are significantly different. This study investigates a Bayesian network methodology for discriminating lightning flash type (ground or cloud) using the lightning optical data and ancillary GOES-R data. A Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) is set up with lightning as a "root" and data observed by GLM as the "leaves." This allows for a direct calculation of the joint probability distribution function for the lighting type and radiance, area, etc. Initially, the conditional probabilities that will be required can be estimated from the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) and the Optical Transient Detector (OTD) together with NLDN data. Directly manipulating the joint distribution will yield the conditional probability that a lightning flash is a ground flash given the evidence, which consists of the observed lightning optical data [and possibly cloud data retrieved from the GOES-R Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) in a more mature Bayesian network configuration]. Later, actual GLM and NLDN data can be used to refine the estimates of the conditional probabilities used in the model; i.e., the Bayesian network is a learning network. Methods for efficient calculation of the conditional probabilities (e.g., an algorithm using junction trees), finding data conflicts, goodness of fit, and dealing with missing data will also be addressed.

Solakiewiz, Richard↗
NASA NTRS1973

Rate of reaction between molecular hydrogen and molecular oxygen

The shock tube data of Jachimowski and Houghton were rigorously analyzed to obtain rate constants for the candidate initiation reactions H2 + O2 yields H + HO2, H2 + O2 yields H2O + O, and H2 + O2 yields OH + OH. Reaction (01) is probably not the initiation process because the activation energy obtained is less than the endothermicity and because the derived rates greatly exceed values inferred in the literature from the reverse of reaction (01). Reactions (02) and (03) remain as possibilities, with reaction (02) slightly favored on the basis of steric and statistical considerations. The solution of the differential equations is presented in detail to show how the kinetics of other ignition systems may be solved.

Brokaw, R. S.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Architecture for Integrated Medical Model Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment

Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a modeling tool used to predict potential outcomes of a complex system based on a statistical understanding of many initiating events. Utilizing a Monte Carlo method, thousands of instances of the model are considered and outcomes are collected. PRA is considered static, utilizing probabilities alone to calculate outcomes. Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment (dPRA) is an advanced concept where modeling predicts the outcomes of a complex system based not only on the probabilities of many initiating events, but also on a progression of dependencies brought about by progressing down a time line. Events are placed in a single time line, adding each event to a queue, as managed by a planner. Progression down the time line is guided by rules, as managed by a scheduler. The recently developed Integrated Medical Model (IMM) summarizes astronaut health as governed by the probabilities of medical events and mitigation strategies. Managing the software architecture process provides a systematic means of creating, documenting, and communicating a software design early in the development process. The software architecture process begins with establishing requirements and the design is then derived from the requirements.

Probability Theory↗
NASA NTRS2003

Reactive Resonances in N+N2 Exchange Reaction

Rich reactive resonances are found in a 3D quantum dynamics study of the N + N2 exchange reaction using a recently developed ab initio potential energy surface. This surface is characterized by a feature in the interaction region called Lake Eyring , that is, two symmetric transition states with a shallow minimum between them. An L2 analysis of the quasibound states associated with the shallow minimum confirms that the quasibound states associated with oscillations in all three degrees of freedom in Lake Eyring are responsible for the reactive resonances in the state-to-state reaction probabilities. The quasibound states, mostly the bending motions, give rise to strong reasonance peaks, whereas other motions contribute to the bumps and shoulders in the resonance structure. The initial state reaction probability further proves that the bending motions are the dominating factors of the reaction probability and have longer life times than the stretching motions. This is the first observation of reactive resonances from a "Lake Eyring" feature in a potential energy surface.

Wang, Dunyou↗
NASA NTRS1985

Activated recombinative desorption: A potential component in mechanisms of spacecraft glow

The concept of activated recombination of atomic species on surfaces can explain the production of vibrationally and translationally excited desorbed molecular species. Equilibrium statistical mechanics predicts that the molecular quantum state distributions of desorbing molecules is a function of surface temperature only when the adsorption probability is unity and independent of initial collision conditions. In most cases, the adsorption probability is dependent upon initial conditions such as collision energy or internal quantum state distribution of impinging molecules. From detailed balance, such dynamical behavior is reflected in the internal quantum state distribution of the desorbing molecule. This concept, activated recombinative desorption, may offer a common thread in proposed mechanisms of spacecraft glow. Using molecular beam techniques and equipment available at Los Alamos, which includes a high translational energy 0-atom beam source, mass spectrometric detection of desorbed species, chemiluminescence/laser induced fluorescence detection of electronic and vibrationally excited reaction products, and Auger detection of surface adsorbed reaction products, a fundamental study of the gas surface chemistry underlying the glow process is proposed.

Cross, J. B.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Predicting Lightning Initiation using Deep Learning

Lightning occurrence presents safety challenges to people and property. The main challenge with lightning safety is that the majority of guidance is reactive. In other words, lightning has to have already occurred nearby before a person will respond and take shelter. Further, most injuries or fatalities occur as the storm approaches, or as it's moving away, when rainfall may not be present at the time of the flash. Thus, this project develops a physically-based deep learning model to produce lightning probabilities out to 15 minutes. The deep learning model combines a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) with a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network to capture both the spatial and temporal evolution of storms to predict the probability that lightning initiation will occur in the next 15 minutes. The model combines radar reflectivity, correlation coefficient and differential reflectivity to inferred storm hydrometer type and precipitation phase, which aids in the identification of electrification processes. The model is trained with data from the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM), which is a near infrared sensor onboard the GOES-R series of satellites that measures optical brightness from lightning. This presentation will provide an overview of the project.

Andrew T White↗
NASA NTRS1993

The early ultraviolet spectral evolution of Nova Cygni 1992

We report on the high resolution ultraviolet line profile evolution of Nova Cygni 1992 using the International Ultraviolet Explorer (IUE) satellite and the Goddard High Resolution Spectrograph (GHRS) on the Hubble Space Telescope (HST). Our observations cover the period from discovery in 1992 February through 1993 April. The initial expansion velocity, derived from P Cyg profiles on Mg II and other resonance lines, was about 4500 km/s. All resonance transitions displayed P Cyg profiles around the time of UV maximum. We first discuss the spectral development as the initially optically thick atomic absorption curtain became optically thin. We then present the interpretation of the nebular spectral stage. The high resolution line profiles show that the shell rapidly developed nearly symmetric knots, or filaments, of emission. The optically thin transitions show an emission weighted expansion velocity of about 1800 km/s, consistent with the velocity inferred from the radio and infrared data. The emission lines display a symmetric set of filaments that appeared as soon as the line profiles became optically thin. The GHRS observations demonstrate that the filaments were located in the inner, slower moving parts of the ejecta. These probably record an initial low wave number instability imposed on the ejecta at the time of outburst. We suggest that the likely cause is a Rayleigh-Taylor instability. The emission at later stages is dominated by the filaments and, since this phenomenon is seen in virtually all novae, nebular line formation codes will have to account for the density inhomgeneities in order to adequately determine abundances for nove ejecta.

Shore, Steven N.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Initialization and Restart in Stochastic Local Search: Computing a Most Probable Explanation in Bayesian Networks

For hard computational problems, stochastic local search has proven to be a competitive approach to finding optimal or approximately optimal problem solutions. Two key research questions for stochastic local search algorithms are: Which algorithms are effective for initialization? When should the search process be restarted? In the present work we investigate these research questions in the context of approximate computation of most probable explanations (MPEs) in Bayesian networks (BNs). We introduce a novel approach, based on the Viterbi algorithm, to explanation initialization in BNs. While the Viterbi algorithm works on sequences and trees, our approach works on BNs with arbitrary topologies. We also give a novel formalization of stochastic local search, with focus on initialization and restart, using probability theory and mixture models. Experimentally, we apply our methods to the problem of MPE computation, using a stochastic local search algorithm known as Stochastic Greedy Search. By carefully optimizing both initialization and restart, we reduce the MPE search time for application BNs by several orders of magnitude compared to using uniform at random initialization without restart. On several BNs from applications, the performance of Stochastic Greedy Search is competitive with clique tree clustering, a state-of-the-art exact algorithm used for MPE computation in BNs.

Mengshoel, Ole J.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Structural and stratigraphic features and ERS 1 synthetic aperture radar backscatter characteristics of ice growing on shallow lakes in NW Alaska, winter 1991-1992

Changes in Earth Remote-Sensing Satellite (ERS) 1 C band synthetic aperture radar (SAR) backscatter intensity (sigma(exp 0)) from ice growing on shallow tundra lakes at three locations in NW Alaska are described. Ice core analysis shows that all lakes on the coast at Barrow the ice, whether floating or frozen to the bottom, includes an inclusion-free layer overlying a layer of ice with tubular bubbles oriented parallel to the direction of growth. The clear ice may also be overlain by a discontinuous layer of bubbly snow ice. Backscatter is low (-16 to -22 dB) at the time of initial ice formation, probably due to the specular nature of the upper and lower ice surfaces causing the radar pulse to be reflected away from the radar. As the ice thickens during the autumn, backscatter rises steadily. Once the ice freezes to the lake bottom, regardless of the presence of foward scattering tubular bubbles, low backscatter values of -17 to -18 dB are caused by absorption of the radar signal in the lake bed. For ice that remains afloat all winter the ice-water interface and the tubular bubbles combine, presumably via an incoherent double-bounce mechanism, to cause maximum backscatter values of the order of -6 to -7 dB. The sigma(exp 0) saturates at -6 to -7 dB before maximum ice thickness and tubular bubble content are attained. A simple ice growth model suggests that the layer of ice with tubular bubbles need be only a few centimeters thick midway through the growth season to cause maximum backscatter from floating ice. During the spring thaw a previously unreported backscatter reversal is observed on the floating and grounded portions of the coastal lakes but not on the lakes farther inland. This reversal may be related to the ice surface topography and wetness plus the effects of a longer, cooler melt period by the coast. Time series of backscatter variations from shallow tundra lakes are a record of (1) the development of tubular bubbles in the ice and, by association, changes in the gas content of the underlying water and (2) the freezing of ice to the bottoms of the lakes and therefore lake bathymetry and water availability. SAR is also able to detect the onset of lake ice growth in autumn and the initiation of the spring thaw and thus has potential for monitoring high-altitude lake ice growth and decay processes in relation to climate variability.

Jeffries, M. O.↗
NASA NTRS1977

Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics and Optimum Fracture Control Analytical Procedures for a Reusable Solid Rocket Motor Case

A methodology for the reliability analysis of a reusable solid rocket motor case is discussed. The analysis is based on probabilistic fracture mechanics and probability distribution for initial flaw sizes. The developed reliability analysis is used to select the structural design variables of the solid rocket motor case on the basis of minimum expected cost and specified reliability bounds during the projected design life of the case. Effects of failure prevention plans such as nondestructive inspection and the material erosion between missions are also considered in the developed procedure for selection of design variables. The reliability-based procedure can be modified to consider other similar structures of reusable space vehicle systems with different failure prevention plans.

Hanagud, S.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Solution to a gene divergence problem under arbitrary stable nucleotide transition probabilities

A nucleic acid chain, L nucleotides in length, with the specific base sequence B(1)B(2) ... B(L) is defined by the L-dimensional vector B = (B(1), B(2), ..., B(L)). For twelve given constant non-negative transition probabilities that, in a specified position, the base B is replaced by the base B' in a single step, an exact analytical expression is derived for the probability that the position goes from base B to B' in X steps. Assuming that each base mutates independently of the others, an exact expression is derived for the probability that the initial gene sequence B goes to a sequence B' = (B'(1), B'(2), ..., B'(L)) after X = (X(1), X(2), ..., X(L)) base replacements. The resulting equations allow a more precise accounting for the effects of Darwinian natural selection in molecular evolution than does the idealized (biologically less accurate) assumption that each of the four nucleotides is equally likely to mutate to and be fixed as one of the other three. Illustrative applications of the theory to some problems of biological evolution are given.

Holmquist, R.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Reusable solid rocket motor case - Optimum probabilistic fracture control

A methodology for the reliability analysis of a reusable solid rocket motor case is discussed in this paper. The analysis is based on probabilistic fracture mechanics and probability distribution for initial flaw sizes. The developed reliability analysis can be used to select the structural design variables of the solid rocket motor case on the basis of minimum expected cost and specified reliability bounds during the projected design life of the case. Effects on failure prevention plans such as nondestructive inspection and the material erosion between missions can also be considered in the developed procedure for selection of design variables. The reliability-based procedure that has been discussed in this paper can easily be modified to consider other similar structures of reusable space vehicle systems with different fracture control plans.

Hanagud, S.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Schiaparelli Basin, Mars - Morphology, Tectonics and infilling history

Schiaparelli Basin (an elliptical basin 460 x 400 km in diameter) is the best preserved large impact structure on Mars. Multiple periods of basin infilling by lava and eolian material can be recognized. Numerous ridges within the basin show a strong northwest-southeast orientation, consistent with a regional stress field induced by the loading of the lithosphere by Tharsis. Ridge location is, however, apparently dominated by a buried peak ring. Earth-based radar measurements of Schiaparelli indicate that the ejecta deposits are best preserved on topographic highs southeast of the basin, while eolian materials have preferentially accumulated in the lower (western) side of the basin. Lyot (215 km diameter) is believed to be a good analogue to the pre-infilled Schiaparelli, and indicates that Schiaparelli probably had an initially hummocky floor topography and both ballistic and ground-flow ejecta deposits.

Mouginis-Mark, P. J.↗