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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 55 records · Page 3

Sensor System Performance Evaluation and Benefits from the NPOESS Airborne Sounder Testbed-Interferometer (NAST-I)

Advanced satellite sensors are tasked with improving global-scale measurements of the Earth's atmosphere, clouds, and surface to enable enhancements in weather prediction, climate monitoring, and environmental change detection. Validation of the entire measurement system is crucial to achieving this goal and thus maximizing research and operational utility of resultant data. Field campaigns employing satellite under-flights with well-calibrated FTS sensors aboard high-altitude aircraft are an essential part of this validation task. The National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) Airborne Sounder Testbed-Interferometer (NAST-I) has been a fundamental contributor in this area by providing coincident high spectral/spatial resolution observations of infrared spectral radiances along with independently-retrieved geophysical products for comparison with like products from satellite sensors being validated. This paper focuses on some of the challenges associated with validating advanced atmospheric sounders and the benefits obtained from employing airborne interferometers such as the NAST-I. Select results from underflights of the Aqua Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder (AIRS) and the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) obtained during recent field campaigns will be presented.

Larar, A.↗

SHIELD and HZETRN Comparisons of Pion Production Cross Sections

A program of comparing American (NASA) and Russian (ROSCOSMOS) space radiation transport codes has recently begun, and the rst paper directly comparing the NASA and ROSCOSMOS space radiation transport codes, HZETRN and SHIELD respectively has recently appeared. The present work represents the second time that NASA and ROSCOSMOS calculations have been directly compared, and the focus here is on models of pion production cross sections used in the two transport codes mentioned above. It was found that these models are in overall moderate agreement with each other and with experimental data. Disagreements that were found are discussed.

John W Norbury↗

Comparison of Fission Product Release Predictions using PARFUME with Results from the AGR-2 Irradiation Experiment

The PARFUME (PARticle FUel ModEl) code was used to predict fission product release from tristructural isotropic (TRISO) coated fuel particles and compacts during the second irradiation experiment (AGR-2) of the Advanced Gas Reactor Fuel Development and Qualification Program. The PARFUME model for the Advanced Gas reactor (AGR)GR-2 experiment used the fuel compact volume average temperature for each of the 560 days of irradiation to calculate the release of fission products of silver, cesium, and strontium from a representative particle for a select number of AGR -2 compacts. In addition, safety tests were performed on 15 compacts ranging from 1500 to 1800°C to determine fission product release at temperatures that bound reactor accident conditions. PARFUME was used to calculate the fission product release of silver, cesium, strontium, and krypton during these safety tests. Post-irradiation examination (PIE) measurements provided the data on release of fission products from the fuel compacts and fuel particles, and retention of fission products in the compacts outside the silicon carbide (SiC) layer. The predicted fraction release from PARFUME was then compared to PIE measurements.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Comparison of Fission Product Release Predictions using PARFUME and BISON with Results from the AGR-3/4 Irradiation Experiment

The PARFUME (PARticle Fuel ModEl) fuel performance modeling code and the BISON nuclear fuel performance application built on the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) finite element library were used to predict the fission product release from tristructural isotropic (TRISO) coated fuel particles and compacts during the third and fourth irradiation experiment of the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR-3/4) Fuel Development and Qualification Program. The fuel performance modeling codes PARFUME and BISON modeled the AGR-3/4 irradiation experiment using the fuel compact time-averaged volume averaged (TAVA) daily temperatures for a total irradiation duration of 369.1 effective full power days (EFPD) to predict the release fraction of the fission product silver (Ag-110m) from a representative TRISO-coated fuel particle from AGR-3/4 compacts. Post-irradiation examination (PIE) measurements provided data on the release of these fission products in the compacts outside of the silicon carbide (SIC) layer. The PARFUME and BISON results were then compared to the silver release measured from compact gamma scanning. The results showed good agreement between PARFUME and BISON but both codes under-predicted the silver release fraction for all the compacts. In addition, BISON was used to model and predict the fission product concentration radial profile outside of the compacts in capsules’ inner and outer rings. These rings were either comprised of matrix and/or structural graphite. To obtain the concentration profiles of silver, cesium, and strontium, a sorption isotherm model was developed in BISON to capture the effects of fission product transport across the gaps between the concentric rings. The general shape of the concentration radial profiles as calculated by BISON were similar in the inner ring (IR) but varied in the outer ring (OR) depending on the fission product of interest or capsule temperature. Using this methodology and model, BISON now has the capability to aid in developing new fission product diffusion coefficients for matrix or structural graphite materials.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Numerical simulation of the hot-tail runaway electron production mechanism using CQL3D and comparison with Smith–Verwichte analytical model

Abstract The hot-tail mechanism of runaway electron (RE) production (Harvey et al 2000 Phys. Plasmas 7 4590) is the primary source of RE in the case of rapidly cooling tokamak plasma. Quantifying this mechanism is very important as it can provide most of the post-thermal-quench (TQ) current, or a seed current for the secondary source of RE through the avalanche mechanism. An analytic model which omits pitch-angle scattering is often used in literature for estimating the hot-tail RE density (Smith and Verwichte 2008 Phys. Plasmas 15 072502). In the present study, we use the CQL3D bounce-averaged Fokker–Planck code (Harvey and McCoy 1992 Proc. IAEA Technical Committee Meeting on Advances in Simulation and Modeling of Thermonuclear Plasmas p 527) to test the limits of validity of the model. In particular, we examine the cases of Z = 1 and Z = 18 ions, for sets of different initial temperature, density, electric field and the characteristic time of temperature decay. We show that for Z = 1 plasma, the ratio of RE density computed by CQL3D to that estimated from the model is within 0.6–6.0 in studied cases. For the Z = 18 case, this factor is systematically a much smaller number, typically 0.02–0.6. We suggest a simple correction to the model that narrows down the range of this ratio to 0.3–3.8 in all of the cases, including Z = 1 and Z = 18 plasmas.

Physics↗

MISR Aerosol Product Attributes and Statistical Comparisons with MODIS

In this paper, Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) aerosol product attributes are described, including geometry and algorithm performance flags. Actual retrieval coverage is mapped and explained in detail using representative global monthly data. Statistical comparisons are made with coincident aerosol optical depth (AOD) and Angstrom exponent (ANG) retrieval results from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument. The relationship between these results and the ones previously obtained for MISR and MODIS individually, based on comparisons with coincident ground-truth observations, is established. For the data examined, MISR and MODIS each obtain successful aerosol retrievals about 15% of the time, and coincident MISR-MODIS aerosol retrievals are obtained for about 6%-7% of the total overlap region. Cloud avoidance, glint and oblique-Sun exclusions, and other algorithm physical limitations account for these results. For both MISR and MODIS, successful retrievals are obtained for over 75% of locations where attempts are made. Where coincident AOD retrievals are obtained over ocean, the MISR-MODIS correlation coefficient is about 0.9; over land, the correlation coefficient is about 0.7. Differences are traced to specific known algorithm issues or conditions. Over-ocean ANG comparisons yield a correlation of 0.67, showing consistency in distinguishing aerosol air masses dominated by coarse-mode versus fine-mode particles. Sampling considerations imply that care must be taken when assessing monthly global aerosol direct radiative forcing and AOD trends with these products, but they can be used directly for many other applications, such as regional AOD gradient and aerosol air mass type mapping and aerosol transport model validation. Users are urged to take seriously the published product data-quality statements.

Kahn, Ralph A.↗

Cradle-to-Gate greenhouse gas emissions of the production of ethylene from U.S. Corn ethanol and comparison to fossil-derived ethylene production

Conventional ethylene production heavily depends on fossil-derived feedstocks via steam cracking, a very energy- and emission-intensive process. Researchers have been exploring alternatives to reduce CO 2 emissions including producing ethylene from biobased feedstocks. This paper evaluates the cradle-to-gate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of bioethylene produced from U.S. corn ethanol. The analysis includes different pathways for the dehydration of corn ethanol to ethylene and co-processing routes via fluid catalytic cracking (FCC) processes. For the FCC co-processing route carbon-14 analysis is used to determine bioethanol yields. A 127% reduction in life cycle GHG emissions of bioethylene is estimated compared to fossil-derived ethylene for the base case. Additional case studies are also discussed to understand the reduction of GHG emissions due to sustainable corn farming and renewable power use, biogenic carbon capture, and fuel switch with biofuels at the ethanol plant, and its impact on bioethylene GHG emissions.

carbon footprint↗

Small Lunar Base Camp and in Situ Resource Utilization Oxygen Production Facility Power System Comparison

This report examines the power requirements for operating an in situ resource utilization (ISRU) oxygen production system on the lunar surface and a small six-person base camp. The baseline ISRU system produced 1.63 kg/h for a total day and night production rate of 1,154 kg. It was estimated that this plant would require 25.83 kW of power to operate. The base camp power includes auxiliary equipment as well as a communications system. The required power estimate for the base camp was 28.05 kW. This estimation was used to size a power system and determine its mass for meeting these requirements. Three types of power systems were considered: a solar photovoltaic (PV) array system using batteries for energy storage, a PV array system using a regenerative fuel cell (RFC) for energy storage, and a modular 10-kW electrical output power Kilopower reactor system. Three separate cases were examined: a stand-alone ISRU oxygen production system, a base camp, and a combined ISRU oxygen production system and base camp. For the PV array-based system, the RFC energy storage method had a mass advantage over a battery- based energy storage system. For higher power nighttime power operation for all three cases, the RFC system’s specific energy was just over 830 Wh/kg. For the lower power nighttime “keep-alive” level used as part of the Case 1 analysis, the specific energy for the RFC was 456 Wh/kg. Both of these levels are significantly above the specific energy of 200 Wh/kg for the battery. Because of this higher specific energy, the RFC-based system provided significant mass advantages over the battery-based energy storage system. The baseline reactor system utilized shielding and separation distance to meet the desired maximum radiation dose level of 5 rem/yr for personnel operating within the vicinity of the power loads, base camp, and oxygen production facility. There are methods that could potentially be utilized to reduce the shielding requirements and separation distance. Implementing these would reduce the overall system mass for the reactor. Also, optimizing the reactor output to a specific mission would provide benefits in mass at the expense of modularity. The results of the power system comparison between a solar PV array-based system and a Kilopower reactor-based system has shown that for missions required to operate throughout the lunar night at power levels comparable to those used during the day, the reactor-based system provides a significant mass advantage. However, for applications that can meet their mission requirements while only having to operate during the daytime with minimal power required to survive the nighttime, the PV array-based system provides a mass advantage.

Colozza, Anthony J.↗

Sensitivity of depth of maximum and absorption depth of EAS to hadron production mechanism

Comparison of experimental data on depth of extensive air showers (EAS) development maximum in the atmosphere, T sub M and path of absorption, lambda, in the lower atmosphere of EAS with fixed particle number in the energy region eV with the results of calculation show that these parameters are sensitive mainly to the inelastic interaction cross section and scaling violation in the fragmentation and pionization region. The data are explained in a unified manner within the framework of a model in which scaling is violated slightly in the fragmentation region and strongly in the pionization region at primary cosmic rays composition close to the normal one and a permanent increase of inelastic interaction cross section. It is shown that, while interpreting the experimental data, disregard of two methodical points causes a systematic shift in T sub M: (1) shower selection system; and (2) EAS electron lateral distribution when performing the calculations on basis of which the transfer is made from the Cerenkov pulse FWHM to the depth of shower maximum, T sub M.

Antonov, R. A.↗

Comparison of TRMM 2A25 Products Version 6 and Version 7 with NOAA/NSSL Ground Radar-Based National Mosaic QPE

Characterization of the error associated to satellite rainfall estimates is a necessary component of deterministic and probabilistic frameworks involving spaceborne passive and active microwave measurements for applications ranging from water budget studies to forecasting natural hazards related to extreme rainfall events. We focus here on the error structure of Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Radar (PR) quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) at ground. The problem was addressed in a previous paper by comparison of 2A25 version 6 (V6) product with reference values derived from NOAA/NSSL's ground radar-based National Mosaic and QPE system (NMQ/Q2). The primary contribution of this study is to compare the new 2A25 version 7 (V7) products that were recently released as a replacement of V6. This new version is considered superior over land areas. Several aspects of the two versions are compared and quantified including rainfall rate distributions, systematic biases, and random errors. All analyses indicate V7 is an improvement over V6.

Kirstetter, Pierre-Emmanuel↗

Al-26 production profile and model comparisons in Canyon Diablo

The large preatmospheric size of the Canyon Diablo meteorite, a radius of about 15 m, makes it especially suitable for systematic studies of cosmogenic nuclide production rates of iron objects in a 2 pi geometry. To reconstruct the exposure history of the meteoroid, Heymann et al. investigated several fragments recovered from known geographic locations around the crater for their shock features and cosmogenic nobel gases. They applied the Signer-Nier noble gas production rate model to establish the preatmospheric depth of the specimens in the meteoroid. Cosmic ray exposure ages suggested a multi-episodic irradiation, with 170 or 540 Ma being inferred for most of the samples studied while two anomalous specimens indicated a possible third exposure age at 940 Ma. Be-10 and Cl-36 have been measured in a number of these same samples by accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS), with use being made of the preatmospheric depths determined in Heymann et al. to construct production profiles. The present study extends the cosmogenic radionuclide data to Al-26 and compares the results with both the production rate model of Reedy and Arnold and production rates determined from the cross sections used by the Reedy-Arnold model (for the major nuclear reactions making Al-26) in combination with differential fluxes calculated using the Los Alamos High Energy Transport (LAHET) Code System. Model calculations for Be-10 and Cl-36 have also been obtained.

Michlovich, E.↗

Soil Moisture Active Passive Mission L4_SM Data Product Assessment (Version 2 Validated Release)

During the post-launch SMAP calibration and validation (Cal/Val) phase there are two objectives for each science data product team: 1) calibrate, verify, and improve the performance of the science algorithm, and 2) validate the accuracy of the science data product as specified in the science requirements and according to the Cal/Val schedule. This report provides an assessment of the SMAP Level 4 Surface and Root Zone Soil Moisture Passive (L4_SM) product specifically for the product's public Version 2 validated release scheduled for 29 April 2016. The assessment of the Version 2 L4_SM data product includes comparisons of SMAP L4_SM soil moisture estimates with in situ soil moisture observations from core validation sites and sparse networks. The assessment further includes a global evaluation of the internal diagnostics from the ensemble-based data assimilation system that is used to generate the L4_SM product. This evaluation focuses on the statistics of the observation-minus-forecast (O-F) residuals and the analysis increments. Together, the core validation site comparisons and the statistics of the assimilation diagnostics are considered primary validation methodologies for the L4_SM product. Comparisons against in situ measurements from regional-scale sparse networks are considered a secondary validation methodology because such in situ measurements are subject to up-scaling errors from the point-scale to the grid cell scale of the data product. Based on the limited set of core validation sites, the wide geographic range of the sparse network sites, and the global assessment of the assimilation diagnostics, the assessment presented here meets the criteria established by the Committee on Earth Observing Satellites for Stage 2 validation and supports the validated release of the data. An analysis of the time average surface and root zone soil moisture shows that the global pattern of arid and humid regions are captured by the L4_SM estimates. Results from the core validation site comparisons indicate that "Version 2" of the L4_SM data product meets the self-imposed L4_SM accuracy requirement, which is formulated in terms of the ubRMSE: the RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) after removal of the long-term mean difference. The overall ubRMSE of the 3-hourly L4_SM surface soil moisture at the 9 km scale is 0.035 cubic meters per cubic meter requirement. The corresponding ubRMSE for L4_SM root zone soil moisture is 0.024 cubic meters per cubic meter requirement. Both of these metrics are comfortably below the 0.04 cubic meters per cubic meter requirement. The L4_SM estimates are an improvement over estimates from a model-only SMAP Nature Run version 4 (NRv4), which demonstrates the beneficial impact of the SMAP brightness temperature data. L4_SM surface soil moisture estimates are consistently more skillful than NRv4 estimates, although not by a statistically significant margin. The lack of statistical significance is not surprising given the limited data record available to date. Root zone soil moisture estimates from L4_SM and NRv4 have similar skill. Results from comparisons of the L4_SM product to in situ measurements from nearly 400 sparse network sites corroborate the core validation site results. The instantaneous soil moisture and soil temperature analysis increments are within a reasonable range and result in spatially smooth soil moisture analyses. The O-F residuals exhibit only small biases on the order of 1-3 degrees Kelvin between the (re-scaled) SMAP brightness temperature observations and the L4_SM model forecast, which indicates that the assimilation system is largely unbiased. The spatially averaged time series standard deviation of the O-F residuals is 5.9 degrees Kelvin, which reduces to 4.0 degrees Kelvin for the observation-minus-analysis (O-A) residuals, reflecting the impact of the SMAP observations on the L4_SM system. Averaged globally, the time series standard deviation of the normalized O-F residuals is close to unity, which would suggest that the magnitude of the modeled errors approximately reflects that of the actual errors. The assessment report also notes several limitations of the "Version 2" L4_SM data product and science algorithm calibration that will be addressed in future releases. Regionally, the time series standard deviation of the normalized O-F residuals deviates considerably from unity, which indicates that the L4_SM assimilation algorithm either over- or under-estimates the actual errors that are present in the system. Planned improvements include revised land model parameters, revised error parameters for the land model and the assimilated SMAP observations, and revised surface meteorological forcing data for the operational period and underlying climatological data. Moreover, a refined analysis of the impact of SMAP observations will be facilitated by the construction of additional variants of the model-only reference data. Nevertheless, the “Version 2” validated release of the L4_SM product is sufficiently mature and of adequate quality for distribution to and use by the larger science and application communities.

SMAP L4_SM↗

Utilizing Multiple Datasets for Snow Cover Mapping

Snow-cover maps generated from surface data are based on direct measurements, however they are prone to interpolation errors where climate stations are sparsely distributed. Snow cover is clearly discernable using satellite-attained optical data because of the high albedo of snow, yet the surface is often obscured by cloud cover. Passive microwave (PM) data is unaffected by clouds, however, the snow-cover signature is significantly affected by melting snow and the microwaves may be transparent to thin snow (less than 3cm). Both optical and microwave sensors have problems discerning snow beneath forest canopies. This paper describes a method that combines ground and satellite data to produce a Multiple-Dataset Snow-Cover Product (MDSCP). Comparisons with current snow-cover products show that the MDSCP draws together the advantages of each of its component products while minimizing their potential errors. Improved estimates of the snow-covered area are derived through the addition of two snow-cover classes ("thin or patchy" and "high elevation" snow cover) and from the analysis of the climate station data within each class. The compatibility of this method for use with Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data, which will be available in 2000, is also discussed. With the assimilation of these data, the resolution of the MDSCP would be improved both spatially and temporally and the analysis would become completely automated.

Tait, Andrew B.↗

Multi-scale fission product release model with comparison to AGR data

TRistructural ISOtropic (TRISO) particle fuel is central to several advanced, high-temperature reactor designs. Each particle consists of a fuel kernel encapsulated by three layers of carbon and ceramics that prevent the release of fission products and ensure physical integrity. Despite outstanding retention properties, fission product release has been observed from intact particles. To better understand and quantify fission product release from TRISO particles, a multiscale, mechanistic model of fission product transport is being developed by the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program. Previous work focused on silver (Ag) transport and improved Ag release predictions. The work described in this report builds on this experience to better understand cesium (Cs) transport in silicon carbide (SiC), the main barrier to the release of fission products. Atomistic simulations provide bulk and grain boundary (GB) Cs diffusivities in SiC, which are used by phase field simulations in the mesoscale code Marmot to determine the temperature, microstructure, and irradiation-dependent Cs diffusivity at the mesoscale in SiC. This approach attributes the different temperature regimes experimentally observed for Cs diffusivities in SiC to a transition from bulk-dominated diffusivity at high temperatures to a GB-dominated regime at low temperatures, providing new insight. The multiscale, mechanistic effective diffusivity is then implemented in the fuel performance code BISON and further validated by comparing Cs release predictions from Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR)-1 and AGR-2 post-irradiation measurements. The new model improves BISON’s predictability. This document also reports improvements made on Ag transport modeling by accounting for different GB types having different diffusivities. Moreover, this report details preliminary efforts to model palladium (Pd) attack of the SiC at the mesoscale using a phase field approach. Pd attack and its impact on accelerated Ag transport remains a misunderstood phenomenon, and we use the model to demonstrate that the formation of lamellae that has been observed in experiments can be explained by the reaction of Pd with SiC to form alternating layers of graphite and Pd 2 Si. This effort aims to improve our understanding of the reaction and eventually provide a model for BISON to account for Pd penetration and its effects on fission product release.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Satellite to Ground-based LIDAR Comparisons using MPLNET Data Products

The Micro-Pulse Lidar Network (MPLNET) is a network of ground-based lidar systems that provide continuous long-term observations of aerosol and cloud properties at approximately 10 different locations around the globe. Each site in the network uses an elastic scattering lidar co-located with a sunphotometer to provide data products of aerosol optical physical properties. Data products from sites are available on a next-day basis from the MPLNET website. Expansion of the network is based on partnering with research groups interested in joining MPLNET. Results have contributed to a variety of studies including aerosol transport studies and satellite calibration and validation efforts. One of the key motivations for MPLNET is to contribute towards the calibration and validation of satellite-based lidars such as GLAS/ICESAT and CALIPSO. MPLNET is able to provide comparison to several of the key aerosol and cloud CALIPSO data products including: layer height and thickness, optical depth, backscatter and extinction profiles, and the extinction-to-backscatter ratio.

Berkoff, T.A.↗

Technical Report Series on Global Modeling and Data Assimilation: Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) Project Assessment Report for the Beta-Release L4_SM Data Product - Volume 40

During the post-launch SMAP calibration and validation (Cal/Val) phase there are two objectives for each science data product team: 1) calibrate, verify, and improve the performance of the science algorithm, and 2) validate the accuracy of the science data product as specified in the science requirements and according to the Cal/Val schedule. This report provides an assessment of the SMAP Level 4 Surface and Root Zone Soil Moisture Passive (L4_SM) product specifically for the product's public beta release scheduled for 30 October 2015. The primary objective of the beta release is to allow users to familiarize themselves with the data product before the validated product becomes available. The beta release also allows users to conduct their own assessment of the data and to provide feedback to the L4_SM science data product team. The assessment of the L4_SM data product includes comparisons of SMAP L4_SM soil moisture estimates with in situ soil moisture observations from core validation sites and sparse networks. The assessment further includes a global evaluation of the internal diagnostics from the ensemble-based data assimilation system that is used to generate the L4_SM product. This evaluation focuses on the statistics of the observation-minus-forecast (O-F) residuals and the analysis increments. Together, the core validation site comparisons and the statistics of the assimilation diagnostics are considered primary validation methodologies for the L4_SM product. Comparisons against in situ measurements from regional-scale sparse networks are considered a secondary validation methodology because such in situ measurements are subject to upscaling errors from the point-scale to the grid cell scale of the data product. Based on the limited set of core validation sites, the assessment presented here meets the criteria established by the Committee on Earth Observing Satellites for Stage 1 validation and supports the beta release of the data. The validation against sparse network measurements and the evaluation of the assimilation diagnostics address Stage 2 validation criteria by expanding the assessment to regional and global scales.

ubRMSE↗

Projected Climate Impacts to South African Maize and Wheat Production in 2055: A Comparison of Empirical and Mechanistic Modeling Approaches

Crop model-specific biases are a key uncertainty affecting our understanding of climate change impacts to agriculture. There is increasing research focus on intermodel variation, but comparisons between mechanistic (MMs) and empirical models (EMs) are rare despite both being used widely in this field. We combined MMs and EMs to project future (2055) changes in the potential distribution (suitability) and productivity of maize and spring wheat in South Africa under 18 downscaled climate scenarios (9 models run under 2 emissions scenarios). EMs projected larger yield losses or smaller gains than MMs. The EMs' median-projected maize and wheat yield changes were 3.6% and 6.2%, respectively, compared to 6.5% and 15.2% for the MM. The EM projected a 10% reduction in the potential maize growing area, where the MM projected a 9% gain. Both models showed increases in the potential spring wheat production region (EM = 48%, MM = 20%), but these results were more equivocal because both models (particularly the EM) substantially overestimated the extent of current suitability. The substantial water-use efficiency gains simulated by the MMs under elevated CO2 accounted for much of the EMMM difference, but EMs may have more accurately represented crop temperature sensitivities. Our results align with earlier studies showing that EMs may show larger climate change losses than MMs. Crop forecasting efforts should expand to include EMMM comparisons to provide a fuller picture of crop-climate response uncertainties.

DSSAT↗