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NASA NTRS2003

Archetypal TRMM Radar Profiles Identified Through Cluster Analysis

It is widely held that identifiable 'convective regimes' exist in nature, although precise definitions of these are elusive. Examples include land / Ocean distinctions, break / monsoon beahvior, seasonal differences in the Amazon (SON vs DJF), etc. These regimes are often described by differences in the realized local convective spectra, and measured by various metrics of convective intensity, depth, areal coverage and rainfall amount. Objective regime identification may be valuable in several ways: regimes may serve as natural 'branch points' in satellite retrieval algorithms or data assimilation efforts; one example might be objective identification of regions that 'should' share a similar 2-R relationship. Similarly, objectively defined regimes may provide guidance on optimal siting of ground validation efforts. Objectively defined regimes could also serve as natural (rather than arbitrary geographic) domain 'controls' in studies of convective response to environmental forcing. Quantification of convective vertical structure has traditionally involved parametric study of prescribed quantities thought to be important to convective dynamics: maximum radar reflectivity, cloud top height, 30-35 dBZ echo top height, rain rate, etc. Individually, these parameters are somewhat deficient as their interpretation is often nonunique (the same metric value may signify different physics in different storm realizations). Individual metrics also fail to capture the coherence and interrelationships between vertical levels available in full 3-D radar datasets. An alternative approach is discovery of natural partitions of vertical structure in a globally representative dataset, or 'archetypal' reflectivity profiles. In this study, this is accomplished through cluster analysis of a very large sample (0[107) of TRMM-PR reflectivity columns. Once achieved, the rainconditional and unconditional 'mix' of archetypal profile types in a given location and/or season provides a description of the local convective spectrum which retains vertical structure information. A further cluster analysis of these 'mixes' can identify recurrent convective spectra. These are a first step towards objective identification of convective regimes, and towards answering the question: 'What are the most convectively similar locations in the world?'

Boccippio, Dennis J.↗
NASA NTRS2003

The Impact of a Amazonian Deforestation on Dry-Season Rainfall

Many modeling studies have concluded that widespread deforestation of Amazonia would lead to decreased rainfall. We analyze geosynchronous infrared satellite data with respect to percent cloudiness, and analyze rain estimates from microwave sensors aboard the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission satellite. We conclude that in the dry-season, when the effects of the surface are not overwhelmed by synoptic-scale weather disturbances, shallow cumulus cloudiness, deep convective cloudiness, and rainfall occurrence all are larger over the deforested and non-forested (savanna) regions than over areas of dense jungle. This difference is in response to a local circulation initiated by the differential heating of the region s varying forestation. Analysis of the diurnal cycle of cloudiness reveals a shift in the onset of convection toward afternoon hours in the deforested and towards the morning hours in the savanna regions when compared to the neighboring forested regions. Analysis of 14 years of monthly estimates from the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager data revealed that in only in August was there a pattern of higher monthly rainfall amounts over the deforested region.

Negri, Andrew J.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Various Numerical Applications on Tropical Convective Systems Using a Cloud Resolving Model

In recent years, increasing attention has been given to cloud resolving models (CRMs or cloud ensemble models-CEMs) for their ability to simulate the radiative-convective system, which plays a significant role in determining the regional heat and moisture budgets in the Tropics. The growing popularity of CRM usage can be credited to its inclusion of crucial and physically relatively realistic features such as explicit cloud-scale dynamics, sophisticated microphysical processes, and explicit cloud-radiation interaction. On the other hand, impacts of the environmental conditions (for example, the large-scale wind fields, heat and moisture advections as well as sea surface temperature) on the convective system can also be plausibly investigated using the CRMs with imposed explicit forcing. In this paper, by basically using a Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model, three different studies on tropical convective systems are briefly presented. Each of these studies serves a different goal as well as uses a different approach. In the first study, which uses more of an idealized approach, the respective impacts of the large-scale horizontal wind shear and surface fluxes on the modeled tropical quasi-equilibrium states of temperature and water vapor are examined. In this 2-D study, the imposed large-scale horizontal wind shear is ideally either nudged (wind shear maintained strong) or mixed (wind shear weakened), while the minimum surface wind speed used for computing surface fluxes varies among various numerical experiments. For the second study, a handful of real tropical episodes (TRMM Kwajalein Experiment - KWAJEX, 1999; TRMM South China Sea Monsoon Experiment - SCSMEX, 1998) have been simulated such that several major atmospheric characteristics such as the rainfall amount and its associated stratiform contribution, the Qlheat and Q2/moisture budgets are investigated. In this study, the observed large-scale heat and moisture advections are continuously applied to the 2-D model. The modeled cloud generated from such an approach is termed continuously forced convection or continuous large-scale forced convection. A third study, which focuses on the respective impact of atmospheric components on upper Ocean heat and salt budgets, will be presented in the end. Unlike the two previous 2-D studies, this study employs the 3-D GCE-simulated diabatic source terms (using TOGA COARE observations) - radiation (longwave and shortwave), surface fluxes (sensible and latent heat, and wind stress), and precipitation as input for the Ocean mixed-layer (OML) model.

Shie, C.-L.↗
NASA NTRS2002

A Downscaling Analysis of the Urban Influence on Rainfall: TRMM Satellite Component AMS Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography

A recent publication by Shepherd et al. (2002) demonstrated the feasibility of using TRMM precipitation radar (PR) estimates to identify precipitation anomalies caused by urbanization. The approach is particularly useful for investigating this global process because TRMM data span large portions of the globe and comprise an extended temporal dataset. Recent literature suggests that urbanized regions of Houston, Texas may be influencing lightning and precipitation formation over and downwind of the city. Possible mechanisms include: (1) enhanced convergence through interactions between the sea breeze, Galveston bay breeze, and urban heat island circulations, (2) enhanced convergence due to increased surface roughness over the city and/or destabilization of the boundary layer by the UHI, or (3) enhanced cloud condensation nuclei due to urban and industrial aerosol sources. In this study, a downscaling analysis of spatial and temporal trends in rainfall around the Houston Area is being conducted. The downscaling analysis concept involves identifying and quantifying urban rainfall anomalies at progressively smaller spatial and temporal scales using the TRMM satellite, ground-based radar, and a dense network of rain gauges. The goal is to test the hypothesis that the Houston urban district and regions in the climatological downwind region of the city exhibit enhanced rainfall amounts relative to the climatological upwind regions. TRMM was launched in 1997 and currently operates in a low-inclination (35 deg), non-sun-synchronous orbit at an altitude of 402 km (350 km prior to August 2001). The satellite analysis follows the methodologies described in Shepherd et al. (2002). Nearly five years of TRMM PR-derived mean monthly rainfall estimates are utilized to produce annual and warm season isohyetal analyses around Houston. Early results indicate that rainfall rates (mm/h) for the entire period are largest within 100 km northeast and east of Houston (e.g. the "hypothesized downwind region"). The mean rainfall rate over the Houston urban center is 30.5% larger than the upwind control region. The mean rainfall rate in the downwind region is 34.4% larger than the upwind region. An analysis of a parameter called the urban rainfall ratio (URR) illustrates that 65% (88%) of the satellite-derived rainfall rates in the downwind (upwind control) region are greater (less) than the mean background rainfall rate of the entire study region. When the data is stratified by summer months from 1998 to 2001 (June-August), even greater influence over and downwind of the urban area is observed in the statistics. This result is consistent with published reports of urban-generated rainfall being more prevalent in the warm season. The research demonstrates that the evolving TRMM satellite climatology is a credible way to detect mesoscale precipitation signatures that may be linked to urbanization. Early results also corroborate recent findings on Houston-induced convection/drainfall anomalies. Burian and Shepherd will report on other aspects of the downscaling analysis in future forums, but early rain gauge results are consistent with the satellite-based observations.

Shepherd, J. Marshall↗
NASA NTRS2004

Relationship between Precipitating Convection and Easterly Wave Dynamics in the Western Central Pacific

The main proposed goal of this research was a synthesis of radiosonde and radar time series from the TRMM validation experiment KWAJEX (Jul. 23 - Sep. 14 1999) with satellite datasets and forecast model based analyses, in order to characterize synoptic-scale disturbances passing through the Kwajalein (9 deg N 168 deg W) region on the north edge of the central Pacific ITCZ. The Sobel et al. paper summarizes our methodology and findings. A classic paper of Reed and Recker had documented the steady pulse of easterly waves modulating meridional wind, clouds and precipitation in and west of this region in a set of observations in boreal fall. Our study found easterly waves were much less organized and intense during KWAJEX, and only weakly correlated with daily area-averaged radar-derived precipitation and IR brightness temperature. Instead, we focused on three disturbances associated with the highest daily-averaged rainfall amounts during the period. We found by looking at NCEP reanalyses that only one was an easterly wave, while the other two corresponded to an equatorial Kelvin wave and a mixed Rossby-gravity wave, respectively. The contrast with Reed and Recker may be sampling variability, but the timing of KWAJEX, earlier in the year, and during suppressed (weak La Nina) conditions may also contribute to our different conclusions.

Bretherton, Christopher S.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Interannual Rainfall Variability in the Tropical Atlantic Region

Rainfall variability on seasonal and interannual-to-interdecadal time scales in the tropical Atlantic is quantified using a 25-year (1979-2003) monthly rainfall dataset from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). The ITCZ measured by monthly rainfall between 15-37.5 deg W attains its peak as moving to the northernmost latitude (4-10 deg N) during July-September in which the most total rainfall is observed in the tropical Atlantic basin (17.5 deg S-22.5 deg N, 15 deg-37.5 deg W); the ITCZ becomes weakest during January-February with the least total rainfall as it moves to the south. In contrast, rainfall variability on interannual to interdecadal time scales shows a quite different seasonal preference. The most intense interannual variability occurs during March-May when the ITCZ tends to be near the equator and becomes weaker. Significant, negative correlations between the ITCZ strength and latitude anomalies are observed during boreal spring and early summer. The ITCZ strength and total rainfall amount in the tropical Atlantic basin are significantly modulated by the Pacific El Nino and the Atlantic equatorial mode (or Atlantic Nino) particularly during boreal spring and summer; whereas the impact of the Atlantic interhemispheric mode is considerably weaker. Regarding the anomalous latitudes of the ITCZ, the influence can come from both local, i.e., the Atlantic interhemispheric and equatorial modes, and remote forcings, i. e., El Nino; however, a direct impact of El Nino on the latitudes of the ITCZ can only be found during April-July, not in winter and early spring in which the warmest SST anomalies are usually observed in the equatorial Pacific.

Gu, Guojun↗
NASA NTRS2009

Detecting Anthropogenic Impacts on Lightning: Is There an Obvious Signal?

Bell et al. inferred the presence of increased (decreased) summer rainfall and storm heights over the southern tier (off the east coast) of the continental U.S. (CONUS) during the midweek. Amongst other data sources, the Bell et al. study employed Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) passive microwave and precipitation radar data to reach these conclusions. Importantly, to explain the midweek increases in rainfall and storm echo top heights Bell et al. invoked the presence of anthropogenic influences via increased aerosol loading present in the middle of the work week. Conversely, Schultz et al. argue against the Bell et al. findings, noting that no significant trend in rainfall (amount or occurrence) can be detected in rain gauge data collected from 219 surface observing stations over a 42 year period. Based on previously suggested impacts of enhanced aerosol concentrations on precipitation microphysics and in particular, the ice phase, the results of Bell et al. suggest that in addition to the rainfall signal there may be a detectable response in lightning frequency (to the extent that the aerosol hypothesis invoked is valid). This study examines TRMM Lightning Imaging Sensor observations to detect both daily increases and decreases of lightning over the CONUS and neighboring ocean regions and further examines the possibility (through observations) of systematic direct impacts on lightning activity associated with large city locations.

Petersen, Walter A.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Systematic Anomalies in Rainfall Intensity Estimates Over the Continental U.S.

Rainfall intensities during extreme events over the continental U.S. are compared for several advanced radar products. These products include: 1) TRMM spaceborne radar (PR) near surface estimates; 2) NOAA Next-Generation Quantitative Precipitation Estimation (QPE) very high-resolution (1 km) radar-only national mosaics (Q2); 3) very high-resolution instantaneous gauge adjusted radar national mosaics, which we have developed by applying gauge correction on the Q2 instantaneous radar-only products; and 4) several independent C-band dual-polarimetric radar-estimated rainfall samples collected with the ARMOR radar in northern Alabama. Though accumulated rainfall amounts are often similar, we find the satellite and the ground radar rain rate pdfs to be quite different. PR pdfs are shifted towards lower rain rates, implying a much larger stratiform/convective rain ratio than do ground radar products. The shift becomes more evident during strong continental convective storms and much less during tropical storms. Resolving the continental/maritime regime behavior and other large discrepancies between the products presents an important challenge. A challenge to improve our understanding of the source of the discrepancies, to determine the uncertainties of the estimates, and to improve remote-sensing estimates of precipitation in general.

Amitai, Eyal↗
NASA NTRS2011

Observed Recent Trends in Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Over Major Ocean Basins

In this study, we use Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) rainfall data together with historical storm track records to examine the trend of tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall in major ocean basins during recent decades (1980-2007). We find that accumulated total rainfall along storm tracks for all tropical cyclones shows a weak positive trend over the whole tropics. However, total rainfall associated with weak storms, and intense storms (Category 4-5) both show significant positive trends, while total rainfall associated with intermediate storms (Category1-3) show a significant negative trend. Storm intensity defined as total rain produced per unit storm also shows increasing trend for all storm types. Basin-wide, from the first half (1980-1993) to the second half (1994-2007) of the data period, the North Atlantic shows the pronounced increase in TC number and TC rainfall while the Northeast Pacific shows a significant decrease in all storm types. Except for the Northeast Pacific, all other major basins (North Atlantic, Northwest Pacific, Southern Oceans, and Northern Indian Ocean) show a significant increase in total number and rainfall amount in Category 4-5 storms. Overall, trends in TC rainfall in different ocean basins are consistent with long-term changes in the ambient large-scale environment, including SST, vertical wind shear, sea level pressure, mid-tropospheric humidity, and Maximum Potential Intensity (MPI). Notably the pronounced positive (negative) trend of TC rainfall in the North Atlantic (Northeast Pacific) appears to be related to the most (least) rapid increase in SST and MPI, and the largest decrease (increase) in vertical wind shear in the region, relative to other ocean basins.

Lau, K. M.↗
NASA NTRS2012

The Role of Aerosols on Precipitation Processes: Cloud Resolving Model Simulations

Cloud microphysics is inevitably affected by the smoke particle (CCN, cloud condensation nuclei) size distributions below the clouds. Therefore, size distributions parameterized as spectral bin microphysics are needed to explicitly study the effects of atmospheric aerosol concentration on cloud development, rainfall production, and rainfall rates for convective clouds. Recently, a detailed spectral-bin microphysical scheme was implemented into the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model. The formulation for the explicit spectral bin microphysical processes is based on solving stochastic kinetic equations for the size distribution functions of water droplets (i.e., cloud droplets and raindrops), and several types of ice particles [i.e. pristine ice crystals (columnar and plate-like), snow (dendrites and aggregates), graupel and frozen drops/hail]. Each type is described by a special size distribution function containing many categories (i.e., 33 bins). Atmospheric aerosols are also described using number density size-distribution functions. The model is tested by studying the evolution of deep cloud systems in the west Pacific warm pool region, the sub-tropics (Florida) and midlatitudes using identical thermodynamic conditions but with different concentrations of CCN: a low "clean" concentration and a high "dirty" concentration. Results indicate that the low CCN concentration case produces rainfall at the surface sooner than the high CeN case but has less cloud water mass aloft. Because the spectral-bin model explicitly calculates and allows for the examination of both the mass and number concentration of species in each size category, a detailed analysis of the instantaneous size spectrum can be obtained for these cases. It is shown that since the low (CN case produces fewer droplets, larger sizes develop due to greater condensational and collection growth, leading to a broader size spectrum in comparison to the high CCN case. Sensitivity tests were performed to identify the impact of ice processes, radiation and large-scale influence on cloud-aerosol interactive processes, especially regarding surface rainfall amounts and characteristics (i.e., heavy or convective versus light or stratiform types). In addition, an inert tracer was included to follow the vertical redistribution of aerosols by cloud processes. We will also give a brief review from observational evidence on the role of aerosol on precipitation processes.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗
NASA NTRS2017

So, How Much of the Earth's Surface Is Covered by Rain Gauges?

The measurement of global precipitation, both rainfall and snowfall, is critical to a wide range of users and applications. Rain gauges are indispensable in the measurement of precipitation, remaining the de facto standard for precipitation information across Earths surface for hydrometeorological purposes. However, their distribution across the globe is limited: over land their distribution and density is variable, while over oceans very few gauges exist and where measurements are made, they may not adequately reflect the rainfall amounts of the broader area. Critically, the number of gauges available, or appropriate for a particular study, varies greatly across the Earth owing to temporal sampling resolutions, periods of operation, data latency, and data access. Numbers of gauges range from a few thousand available in near real time to about 100,000 for all official gauges, and to possibly hundreds of thousands if all possible gauges are included. Gauges routinely used in the generation of global precipitation products cover an equivalent area of between about 250 and 3,000 sq m. For comparison, the center circle of a soccer pitch or tennis court is about 260 sq m. Although each gauge should represent more than just the gauge orifice, autocorrelation distances of precipitation vary greatly with regime and the integration period. Assuming each Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) available gauge is independent and represents a surrounding area of 5-km radius, this represents only about 1% of Earths surface. The situation is further confounded for snowfall, which has a greater measurement uncertainty.

Rain gauge↗
NASA NTRS2020

Convection Parametrization and Multi-Nesting Dependence of a Heavy Rainfall Event over Namibia with Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model

Namibia is considered as one of the countries that are most vulnerable to climate change due to its generally dry climate and the percentage of its population that rely on subsistence agriculture for their livelihoods. Early warning systems are an important aspect of adapting to climate change. Weather forecasting relies on the use of numerical weather prediction models and these need to be configured properly. In this study we investigate the effects of using multi-nests and a convection scheme on the simulation of a heavy rainfall event over the Northwestern region of Kunene, Namibia. The event which was associated with a cut-off low system, was short-lived and resulted in over 45 mm of rainfall in one hour. For the multi-nest, a 9 km grid length parent domain is nested within the Global Forecast System (GFS) simulations, which in turn forces a 3 km grid spacing child domain. A different set of simulations are produced using a single nest of 3 km grid spacing, nested directly inside the GFS data. The simulations are produced with the convection scheme switched on and off. The impact of a single versus multi nest is found to be small in general, with slight differences in the location of high rainfall intensity. Switching off the convection schemes results in high rainfall intensity and increased detail in the simulations, including when a grid spacing of 9 km mis used. Using a grid spacing of 3 km with the convection scheme on, results in a loss of detail in the simulations as well as lower rainfall amounts. The study shows a need for different configurations to be tested before an optimum configuration can be selected for operational forecasting. We recommend further tests with different synoptic forcing to be conducted to identify a suitable configuration for Namibia.

flooding↗
NASA NTRS2021

Daily Rainfall Estimate by Emissivity Temporal Variation from 10 Satellites

Rainfall retrieval algorithms for passive microwave radiometers often exploit the brightness temperature depression due to ice scattering at high-frequency channels (≥85 GHz) over land. This study presents an alternate method to estimate the daily rainfall amount using the emissivity temporal variation (i.e., Δe) under rain-free conditions at low-frequency channels (19, 24, and 37 GHz). Emissivity is derived from 10 passive microwave radiometers, including the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Microwave Imager (GMI), the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2), three Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounders (SSMIS), the Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS), and four Advanced Microwave Sounding Units-A (AMSU-A). Four different satellite combination schemes are used to derive the Δe for daily rainfall estimates. They are all 10 satellites, 5 imagers, 6 satellites with very different equator crossing times, and GMI only. Results show that Δe from all 10 satellites has the best performance with a correlation of 0.60 and RMSE of 6.52 mm, compared with the Integrated Multisatellite Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) Final run product. The 6-satellites scheme has comparable performance with the all-10-satellites scheme. The 5-imagers scheme performs noticeably worse with a correlation of 0.49 and RMSE of 7.28 mm, while the GMI-only scheme performs the worst with a correlation of 0.25 and RMSE of 11.36 mm. The inferior performance from the 5-imagers and GMI-only schemes can be explained by the much longer revisit time, which cannot accurately capture the emissivity temporal variation.

Yalei You↗
NASA NTRS2022

Global Assessment of the Capability of Satellite Precipitation Products to Retrieve Landslide-Triggering Extreme Rainfall Events

Rainfall-induced landsliding is a global and systemic hazard that is likely to increase with the projections of increased frequency of extreme precipitation with current climate change. However, our ability to understand and mitigate landslide risk is strongly limited by the availability of relevant rainfall measurements in many landslide prone areas. In the last decade, global satellite multisensor precipitation products (SMPP) have been proposed as a solution, but very few studies have assessed their ability to adequately characterize rainfall events triggering landsliding. Here, we address this issue by testing the rainfall pattern retrieved by two SMPPs (IMERG and GSMaP) and one hybrid product [Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation (MSWEP)] against a large, global database of 20 comprehensive landslide inventories associated with well-identified storm events. We found that, after converting total rainfall amounts to an anomaly relative to the 10-yr return rainfall R*, the three products do retrieve the largest anomaly (of the last 20 years) during the major landslide event for many cases. However, the degree of spatial collocation of R* and landsliding varies from case to case and across products, and we often retrieved R* > 1 in years without reported landsliding. In addition, the few (four) landslide events caused by short and localized storms are most often undetected. We also show that, in at least five cases, the SMPP’s spatial pattern of rainfall anomaly matches landsliding less well than does ground-based radar rainfall pattern or lightning maps, underlining the limited accuracy of the SMPPs. We conclude on some potential avenues to improve SMPPs’ retrieval and their relation to landsliding.

Extreme events↗