Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “random processes”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 55 records · Page 3

A Bayesian Approach for Estimating Uncertainty in Stochastic Economic Dispatch considering Wind Power Penetration

The increasing penetration of renewable energy resources in power systems, represented as random processes, converts the traditional deterministic economic dispatch problem into a stochastic one. To estimate the uncertainty in this stochastic economic dispatch problem for forecasting purposes, the conventional Monte-Carlo method is prohibitively time-consuming for practical applications. To overcome this problem, here we propose a novel Gaussian-process-emulator-based approach to quantify the uncertainty in the stochastic economic dispatch considering wind power penetration. Facing high-dimensional real-world data representing the correlated uncertainties from wind generation, a manifold-learning-based Isomap algorithm is proposed to efficiently represent the low-dimensional hidden probabilistic structure of the data. In this low-dimensional latent space, with Latin hypercube sampling as the computer experimental design, a Gaussian-process emulator is used, for the first time, to serve as a nonparametric, surrogate model for the original complicated stochastic economic dispatch model. This reduced-order representative allows us to evaluate the economic dispatch solver at sampled values with a negligible computational cost while maintaining a desirable accuracy. Simulation results conducted on the IEEE 118-bus test system reveal the impressive performance of the proposed method.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Models of the Dynamics of Spatially Separated Broadband Electromagnetic Fields Interacting with Resonant Atoms

The Markov model of spontaneous emission of an atom localized in a spatial region with a broadband electromagnetic field with zero photon density is considered in the conditions of coupling of the electromagnetic field with the broadband field of a neighboring space. The evolution operator of the system and the kinetic equation for the atom are obtained. It is shown that the field coupling constant affects the rate of spontaneous emission of the atom, but is not manifested in the atomic frequency shift. The analytic expression for the radiative decay constant for the atom is found to be analogous in a certain sense to the expression for the decay constant for a singly excited localized ensemble of identical atoms in the conditions when the effect of stabilization of its excited state by the Stark interaction with the vacuum broadband electromagnetic field is manifested. The model is formulated based on quantum stochastic differential equations of the non- Wiener type and the generalized algebra of the Ito differential of quantum random processes.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Non-Wiener Dynamics of Open Systems for Nonzero Number Density of Surrounding Photons

We propose a collective decay model for a localized ensemble of identical atoms in a vacuum broadband electromagnetic field with a nonzero photon number density considering second-order terms in the atom–field interaction constant. The model is based on the stochastic differential equation for the evolution operator for the atomic ensemble and surroundings, which is controlled by the main quantum random processes and independent classical Wiener processes. It is shown that in some cases, nonzero photon number density does not influence the suppression of collective emission of atoms, and its existence is manifested as an additional mechanism of redistribution of atoms over collective sublevels.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

Theoretical Analysis of the EPR Spectrum Saturation Effect with Account for Spectral Diffusion in a System with a Gaussian Distribution of Spin Resonance Frequencies

We have analyzed the effect of saturation of the EPR spectrum for the model situation when a set of resonance frequencies of spin packets is described by a Gaussian distribution and spectral diffusion, which is a random process without correlation, exists. We have obtained the form of the spectrum for arbitrary values of magnetic–resonant parameters: relaxation times for the longitudinal and transverse components of the magnetization vector of the system, the spectral diffusion rate, the dispersion of the Gaussian distribution of resonance frequency, and the magnetic induction of the microwave field. We have derived an analytic expression for the saturation curve of the EPR spectrum. Detailed analysis of the dependence of the spectrum saturation curve on the spin system parameters is performed for the optimal case when the microwave field frequency coincides with the average frequency of the Gaussian distribution for resonance frequencies. The value of the microwave field induction at which the peak of the saturation curve is attained has been determined for arbitrary values of the paramagnetic relaxation time, spectral diffusion rate, and dispersion of the Gaussian spin frequency distribution. We have formulated the algorithm for determining the spin–lattice relaxation time using the experimentally determined microwave field induction for which the saturation curve passes through the peak. It should be noted that numerical calculations have been performed for parameters typical of EPR spectroscopy. The general analytic expression derived for the shape of the spectrum in the saturation conditions and qualitative conclusions concerning the effect of spectral diffusion on the saturation of stationary spectra obtained in this study can also be used in other fields of spectroscopy.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Fluctuations of Induced Charge in Hemispherical Detectors

Detectors with hemispherical geometry are used to eliminate the contribution from the hole component to the signal of a detector based on a compound semiconductor operating at room temperature. In this work, the random process of charge induction on electrodes of a detector with hemispherical geometry is theoretically considered with allowance for capture of electrons by traps. Formulas are obtained for the first two moments of the distribution function for the induced charge on the detector electrodes. These formulas help analyze the contribution of the electron transport in detectors with hemispherical geometry.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Broadening of Cloud Droplet Spectra through Eddy Hopping: Turbulent Entraining Parcel Simulations

This paper discusses the effects of cloud turbulence, turbulent entrainment, and entrained cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) activation on the evolution of the cloud droplet size spectrum. We simulate an ensemble of idealized turbulent cloud parcels that are subject to entrainment events modeled as a random process. Entrainment events, subsequent turbulent mixing inside the parcel, supersaturation fluctuations, and the resulting stochastic droplet activation and growth by condensation are simulated using a Monte Carlo scheme. Quantities characterizing the turbulence intensity, entrainment rate, CCN concentration, and the mean fraction of environmental air entrained in an event are all specified as independent external parameters. Cloud microphysics is described by applying Lagrangian particles, the so-called superdroplets. These are either unactivated CCN or cloud droplets that grow from activated CCN. The model accounts for the addition of environmental CCN into the cloud by entraining eddies at the cloud edge. Turbulent mixing of the entrained dry air with cloudy air is described using the classical linear relaxation to the mean model. We show that turbulence plays an important role in aiding entrained CCN to activate, and thus broadening the droplet size distribution. These findings are consistent with previous large-eddy simulations (LESs) that consider the impact of variable droplet growth histories on the droplet size spectra in small cumuli. Lastly, the scheme developed in this work is ready to be used as a stochastic subgrid-scale scheme in LESs of natural clouds.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Quantification and prediction of error in MIMO tests

Dynamic testing of systems is most realistic of real-world conditions when multiple input and multiple output (MIMO) techniques are used. To replicate measured environmental conditions, a series of desired outputs (responses) on the system must be realized by inverting the frequency response functions (FRF) matrix for input estimation. System identification is dependent on the number of inputs and outputs, which affect the type of solutions. In input estimation, the auto spectra of the determined inputs are affected by both the auto spectra and cross spectra of the desired outputs. This research evaluates errors and investigates two sources in an experimental setting. The first significant error source is test-to-test variability in FRFs from system identification tests, quantified by magnitude variability from long-duration tests. The second significant error source is the realization of time histories from frequency domain inputs. The spectral content of the realized random process deviates from the desired content and is also quantified. The structure is a linear three-story frame fixed at the base; two inputs are provided uniaxially with the use of suspended electrodynamic shakers. The proposed model for error sources was found to be effective in predicting errors in a SISO (single-input single-output) and a square (2-input 2-output) MIMO test.

Yousef, Odey↗

Predicting kinase inhibitors using bioactivity matrix derived informer sets

Prediction of compounds that are active against a desired biological target is a common step in drug discovery efforts. Virtual screening methods seek some active-enriched fraction of a library for experimental testing. Where data are too scarce to train supervised learning models for compound prioritization, initial screening must provide the necessary data. Commonly, such an initial library is selected on the basis of chemical diversity by some pseudo-random process (for example, the first few plates of a larger library) or by selecting an entire smaller library. These approaches may not produce a sufficient number or diversity of actives. An alternative approach is to select an informer set of screening compounds on the basis of chemogenomic information from previous testing of compounds against a large number of targets. We compare different ways of using chemogenomic data to choose a small informer set of compounds based on previously measured bioactivity data. We develop this Informer-Based-Ranking (IBR) approach using the Published Kinase Inhibitor Sets (PKIS) as the chemogenomic data to select the informer sets. We test the informer compounds on a target that is not part of the chemogenomic data, then predict the activity of the remaining compounds based on the experimental informer data and the chemogenomic data. Through new chemical screening experiments, we demonstrate the utility of IBR strategies in a prospective test on three kinase targets not included in the PKIS.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Semi-Analytical Hierarchical Bayesian Inference of Nonlinear Model Structure in Stochastic Dynamics: Applied to Compartmental Models of Infectious Diseases

A Bayesian computational framework for parsimonious inference in stochastic nonlinear dynamical systems is presented. This framework enables the concurrent estimation of system states, time-varying parameters, time-invariant parameters, and the optimal sparsity structure of the model parameters. Because differential equation-based models are often simplified mechanistic or phenomenological representations, robust inference from noisy measurement data requires explicit treatment of model error and uncertainty. Model error and time-varying parameters can be represented as random processes, enabling inference while making minimal assumptions about the underlying sources of discrepancy and variability. Adopting stochastic differential equation representations affords the model significant flexibility, but can also render it susceptible to overfitting during statistical inversion, where the inferred model may track noise rather than the underlying signal. To alleviate the effects of overfitting and to enable the discovery of the optimal sparse representation of the time-invariant parameters, a Bayesian sparse learning algorithm is embedded within the framework. This sparse learning framework adopts an approximate hierarchical Bayesian setting defined by a series of semi-analytical expressions. The model structure inference framework is validated using a stochastic compartmental model for tracking and forecasting active cases of an infectious disease. Compartmental models describe population-level infectious disease dynamics through interactions among population fractions grouped by disease state. Mathematically, such models consist of a system of coupled ordinary differential equations. This example adopts an expressive compartmental model that includes multiple possible interactions between disease states, motivated by early uncertainty surrounding COVID-19 reinfection dynamics and their implications for long-term epidemic forecasting. The sparse learning exercise permits the inference of a priori unknown epidemiological dynamics from simulated public health data, discovering the nested compartmental model that optimizes the trade-off between average data-fit and model complexity. It is shown that inducing sparsity among the model parameters eliminates redundant interactions between compartments, equivalently revealing the optimal coupling structure between differential equations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Sub-pilot-scale Production of High-Value Products from U.S. Coals

Investigators from the University of Utah, University of Wyoming and Marshall University pursued a program to study the conversion of raw coal to high-value products of carbon fiber and silicon carbide. Team members also developed an initial framework for a data portal that can incorporate laboratory data on coal processing and product quality, and also work with tools for machine learning for data analysis, data visualization and economic assessment. Experimental R&D efforts focused on the conversion of raw coal to coal tar and other byproducts, and the resulting tar intermediates were upgraded to form anisotropic and isotropic pitch materials. These pitch materials were produced from coal using both thermal (pyrolysis) and chemical (mild solvolysis liquefaction) decomposition of raw coal. Four different coals were studied: Utah bituminous coal (Sufco), Wyoming PRB coal (Black Thunder), Illinois bituminous coal (Illinois #6), and West Virginia bituminous coal (Flying Eagle). Both metallurgical-grade coking coals and lower-grade steam coals were investigated, and controlled secondary gas-phase reactions were used during a two-stage pyrolysis process to induce cracking and condensation reactions among the pyrolytic tar species. This approach successfully improved the performance of the lower grade coals for yielding pitch materials, with properties more consistent with a commercial-grade pitch that had previously demonstrated success for quality carbon fiber production. The use of waste plastic materials was also studied, to help improve physical and chemical characteristics of the intermediate tars and final pitch product; in particular, for lowering the pitch softening point to an acceptable level for melt spinning carbon fiber. Mild solvolysis liquefaction was also used as a method for producing pitch for carbon fiber production. As expected, significantly higher pitch yields were obtained using this approach, and waste plastic materials were also successfully used to reduce pitch softening point to an acceptable level. The plastic materials were also utilized to create a solvent for the mild solvolysis process, and this plastic-derived solvent was shown to provide results consistent with more expensive commercial chemical solvents, and could thus avoid the need for costly recovery and recycle of a liquefaction solvent. Additional experimental R&D focused on the production of silicon carbide (β-SiC) from the residual char byproduct from pitch production, and also on the production of carbon fiber from the anisotropic pitch. SiC was successfully synthesized using a mixture of residual char and sandstone at a ratio of 1:1. Reaction temperature and residence time were optimized and yielded a product purity of 81%. For carbon fiber production, the most successful pitch samples were obtained from the mild solvolysis liquefaction approach, combined with the use of a plastic (HDPE)-derived solvent. Fiber properties improved over time as laboratory fiber production methodologies improved, and final yields of carbon fiber were obtained with a diameter of 12.14 ± 1.10 um, Modulus of 173.73 ± 15.25 GPa, and Tensile Strength of 1.04 ± 0.10 GPa. A proof-of-concept Modern Community Research Data Portal (MCRDP) was developed and deployed for coal and coal-derived pitch characterization, with the full support of (i) remote web-based access, (ii) distributed analysis, (iii) interactive visualization and exploration, (iv) shared and long-term data access, (v) advanced query capabilities and (vi) real-time collaboration. The Coal to Products Data Portal “coaltoproducts.org” provides researchers with space to store and share data within a project, tools for analyzing and understanding data for scientific investigation, and the ability to publish data to the broader community for reproducibility. The portal leverages the Material Commons 2.0 (MC) platform developed by the Center for PRedictive Integrated Structural Materials Science (PRISMS) of the University of Michigan, to achieve long-term longevity of data collections and, more importantly, collaborative science. A number of data visualization tools were also assessed and implemented for interrogating the experimental and modeling data. The machine learning portion of this project analyzed datasets from two different coal conversion processes performed on a diverse set of coal samples from both the coal pyrolysis experiments and the solvent liquefaction experiments. The work was initiated by exploring standard regression models on the pyrolysis data, aiming to understand the impact of sample characteristics and processing conditions on key product metrics. Over the course of the project, the focus expanded to include a variety of machine learning tools, delving into both supervised and unsupervised learning methods. Models tested on the pyrolysis data included linear, ridge, lasso, elastic-net, Gaussian process, random forest regression, and AutoSklearn, and the approach was continually refined to enhance predictive accuracy and model interpretability. Similar techniques were applied to the liquefaction data with an additional focus on feature engineering. Along with mesophase content, additional outputs of interest were the pitch yield, softening point, and QI content. Insights derived from these analyses are crucial in determining the factors influencing the quality and yield of coal-derived products. As the work progressed, the research evolved from foundational model comparisons to analyses of random forests, decision paths, and feature importance scores. A thorough market analysis was performed to examine the prospects of coal-based carbon fibers. The best opportunities for coal come from its lower and more stable price relative to petroleum, particularly for subbituminous coals, which is the primary advantage that a coal refinery may have over a petroleum refinery. Before a commercial CTP production facility can be modeled, however, several things need to be understood regarding the nature of the would-be coal refinery. These include the technology to be deployed, the size of facility, the volume(s) of co-product(s), and the waste and emissions profile of the plant. The volume of co-products and waste may be substantial and will require separate market analysis to ensure viability. In the near-term, the importance of coal tar pitch, in the form of carbon pitch, to the aluminum and steel industries is likely to overshadow the alternative use of this material as an input for carbon fiber. The importance of steel and aluminum in building materials, and the need for carbon materials in their manufacturing, will ensure that demand for these products remains for the long run. In addition, carbon fiber may also be the best substitute for steel and aluminum well into the future. While society will eventually be able to shift production of much of its electricity needs to renewables, it will not be able to shift away from fossil fuels for production of high-strength construction and vehicular materials. Demand for carbon fiber is expected to increase quickly, but the volume of carbon fiber and the amount of coal that would be needed to produce even a sizeable share of this market may still be relatively small compared to current coal production. Thus, other coal-based products like graphene, graphite, carbon foams, resins, and carbon-based building products will play important roles in sustaining coal production as coal-fired power generation continues to decline.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Optoelectronic Properties of C60 and C70 Fullerene Derivatives: Designing and Evaluating Novel Candidates for Efficient P3HT Polymer Solar Cells

Ten novel fullerene-derivatives (FDs) of C60 and C70 had been designed as acceptor for polymer solar cell (PSC) by employing the quantitative structure-property relationship (QSPR) model, which was developed strategically with a reasonably big pool of experimental power conversion efficiency (PCE) data. The QSPR model was checked and validated with stringent parameter and reliability of predicted PCE values of all designed FDs. They were assessed by the applicability domain (AD) and process randomization test. The predicted PCE of FDs range from 7.96 to 23.01. The obtained encouraging results led us to the additional theoretical analysis of the energetics and UV-Vis spectra of isolated dyes employing Density functional theory (DFT) and Time-dependent-DFT (TD-DFT) calculations using PBE/6-31G(d,p) and CAM-B3LYP/6-311G(d,p) level calculations, respectively. The FD4 is the best C60-derivatives candidates for PSCs as it has the lowest exciton binding energy, up-shifted lowest unoccupied molecular orbital (LUMO) energy level to increase open-circuit voltage (VOC) and strong absorption in the UV region. In case of C70-derivatives, FD7 is potential candidate for future PSCs due to its strong absorption in UV-Vis region and lower exciton binding energy with higher VOC. Our optoelectronic results strongly support the developed QSPR model equation. Analyzing QSPR model and optoelectronic parameters, we concluded that the FD1, FD2, FD4, and FD10 are the most potential candidates for acceptor fragment of fullerene-based PSC. The outcomes of tactical molecular design followed by the investigation of optoelectronic features are suggested to be employed as a significant resource for the synthesis of FDs as an acceptor of PSCs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Degree-preserving graph dynamics: a versatile process to construct random networks

Real-world networks evolve over time via the addition or removal of vertices and edges. In current network evolution models, vertex degree varies or grows arbitrarily. A recently introduced degree-preserving network growth (DPG) family of models preserves vertex degree, resulting in structures significantly different from and more diverse than previous models. Despite its degree preserving property, the DPG model is able to replicate the output of several well-known real-world network growth models. Simulations showed that many real-world networks can also be constructed from small seed graphs via the DPG process. Here, we start the development of a rigorous mathematical theory underlying the DPG family of network growth models. We prove that the degree sequence of the output of some of the well-known, real-world network growth models can be reconstructed via the DPG process, using proper parametrization. We also show that the general problem of deciding whether a simple graph can be obtained via the DPG process from a small seed (DPG feasibility) is, however, NP-complete. In conclusion, it is an intriguing open problem to uncover whether there is a structural reason behind the DPG-constructability of real-world networks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

On the Coupling Time of the Heat-Bath Process for the Fortuin–Kasteleyn Random–Cluster Model

We consider the coupling from the past implementation of the random–cluster heat-bath process, and study its random running time, or coupling time. We focus on hypercubic lattices embedded on tori, in dimensions one to three, with cluster fugacity at least one. We make a number of conjectures regarding the asymptotic behaviour of the coupling time, motivated by rigorous results in one dimension and Monte Carlo simulations in dimensions two and three. Amongst our findings, we observe that, for generic parameter values, the distribution of the appropriately standardized coupling time converges to a Gumbel distribution, and that the standard deviation of the coupling time is asymptotic to an explicit universal constant multiple of the relaxation time. Perhaps surprisingly, we observe these results to hold both off criticality, where the coupling time closely mimics the coupon collector’s problem, and also at the critical point, provided the cluster fugacity is below the value at which the transition becomes discontinuous. Finally, we consider analogous questions for the single-spin Ising heat-bath process.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Spatiotemporal Downscaling Model for Solar Irradiance Forecast Using Nearest-Neighbor Random Forest and Gaussian Process

Accurate solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity estimation requires high-resolution, site-specific solar irradiance data to account for localized variability. However, global datasets, such as the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB), provide regional averages that fail to capture the fine-scale fluctuations critical for large-scale grid integration. This limitation is particularly relevant in the context of increasing distributed energy resources (DERs) penetration, such as rooftop PV. Additionally, it is critical to the implementation of the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) Order 2222, which facilitates DER participation in U.S. bulk power markets. To address this challenge, this study evaluates Nearest-Neighbor Random Forest (NNRF) and Nearest-Neighbor Gaussian Process (NNGP) models for spatiotemporal downscaling of global solar irradiance data. By leveraging historical irradiance and meteorological data, these models incorporate spatial, temporal, and feature-based correlations to enhance local irradiance predictions. The NNRF model, a machine-learning approach, prioritizes computational efficiency and predictive accuracy, while the NNGP model offers a level of interpretability and prediction uncertainty by numerically quantifying correlations and dependencies in the data. Model validation was conducted using day-ahead predictions. The results showed that the average Goodness of Fit (GoF) of the NNRF model of 90.61% across all eight sites outperformed the GoF of the NNGP of 85.88%. Additionally, the computational speed of NNRF was 2.5 times faster than the NNGP. Finally, the NNGP displayed polynomial scaling while the NNRF scaled linearly with increasing number of nearest neighbors. Additional validation of the model on five sites in Puerto Rico further confirmed the superiority of the NNRF model over the NNGP model. These findings highlight the robustness and computational efficiency of NNRF for large-scale solar irradiance downscaling, making it a strong candidate for improving PV capacity estimation and real-time electricity market integration for DERs.

Asiedu, Shadrack (ORCID:0009000646004826)↗

Operation Optimization using Reinforcement Learning with Integrated Artificial Reasoning Framework

In large and complex systems, operational decision-making requires a systematic analysis with a vast amount of data from both process parameters and component status monitoring. In this paper, we present an integrated artificial reasoning approach for system state transition models that can help operational decision-making with explainable and traceable reasoning. The integrated artificial reasoning framework is a physics-based approach of defining the system structure in a Bayesian network, so we leveraged it in a Markov decision process (MDP) for finding optimal operational solutions. In our proposed framework, the MDP is implemented on a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN), which represents causalities in a system. The multilevel flow modeling was utilized in order to extract these causalities in a more efficient and objective manner. Since multilevel flow modeling is based on the fundamental energy and mass conservation laws, the target system is decomposed into several mass, energy, and information structures, which serve as the basis for a DBN. The MDP consists of the processes of finding a solution for the Bellman equation, which can be derived from the conditional probability equations of the constructed DBN. System operators can capture stochastic system dynamics as multiple subsystem state transitions based on their physical relations and uncertainties coming from the component degradation process or random failures. We analyzed a simplified example system to illustrate finding an optimal operational policy with this approach.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Jamming and Tiling in Aggregation of Rectangles

We study a random aggregation process involving rectangular clusters. In each aggregation event, two rectangles are chosen at random and if they have a compatible side, either vertical or horizontal, they merge along that side to form a larger rectangle. Starting with N identical squares, this elementary event is repeated until the system reaches a jammed state where each rectangle has two unique sides. The average number of frozen rectangles scales as N α in the large-N limit. The growth exponent α = 0.229 ± 0.002 characterizes statistical properties of the jammed state and the time-dependent evolution. We also study an aggregation process where rectangles are embedded in a plane and interact only with nearest neighbors. In the jammed state, neighboring rectangles are incompatible, and these frozen rectangles form a tiling of the two-dimensional domain. Here in this case, the final number of rectangles scales linearly with system size.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Lithium-Ion Battery Diagnostics Using Electrochemical Impedance via Machine-Learning

Diagnosing battery states such as health, state-of-charge, or temperature is crucial for ensuring the safety and reliability of electrochemical energy storage systems. While some states, such as temperature, may be measured using cheap sensors, accurate diagnosis of battery health metrics usually requires time-consuming performance measurements, making them infeasible for use in real-world operation. These health metrics can be measured during lab-testing and then estimated on-line using predictive life models or via state observer algorithms such as Kalman filters, but these predictive methods should be supplemented by actual measurement of battery health whenever possible to ensure reliability. Rapid measurement of battery health may be done by various types of fast diagnostic techniques such as electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS), which can be performed in only a few minutes and require only a fraction of the energy and power needed for a full charge and discharge measurement. But there is a substantial challenge for estimating battery health using EIS data, as EIS is sensitive to cell temperature, state-of-charge, current, and resting time in addition to health. Thus, utilizing EIS data to predict battery capacity requires correcting for all these additional variables, a task that is extremely difficult to handle analytically. This talk utilizes machine-learning methods to estimate the effectiveness of battery capacity prediction from EIS data, leveraging a data set of hundreds of EIS measurements recorded at varying temperature and state-of-charge throughout a 500-day aging study of 32 commercial, large-format NMC-Graphite lithium-ion batteries. Using EIS as input to machine-learning models is complicated by the nonlinear response of impedance to battery health, temperature, and state-of-charge, as well as the collinearity between the impedance response at neighboring frequencies, which can easily lead to overfit models. To train robust models, features from EIS data need to be extracted from the data or some subset of critical frequencies selected. Many approaches for extracting and selecting features from EIS data from electrochemical analysis and machine-learning fields were identified for analysis: using the entire raw spectra; selection of one, two, or many frequencies from the entire spectra; selecting interesting points from the EIS measurement using domain knowledge; fitting EIS with an equivalent-circuit model; calculating statistics on the raw impedance values; and reducing the dimensionality of the data using unsupervised linear (principal component analysis) and non-linear (uniform manifold approximation and projection) methods. These approaches were rigorously compared using a machine-learning pipeline approach, training linear, Gaussian process, and random forest regression models and quantifying performance using cross-validation as well as a held-out test set. An artificial neural network model trained on the raw spectra was also tested. Promising pipelines were fine-tuned via Bayesian hyperparameter optimization using cross-validation loss and training with class-specific weights to counter data set imbalance. The most reliable method for utilizing impedance in this work was the selection of two optimal frequencies through an exhaustive search, resulting in about 2% mean absolute error on test data for both Gaussian process and random forest model architectures. Interrogation of a variety of models reveals critical frequencies of 100 Hz and 103 Hz for this data set, though the optimal set of frequencies is not necessarily intuitive, i.e., the best performing models are not simply those that use impedance at frequencies that have the highest correlation to the relative discharge capacity. The best performing model is an ensemble model, which is able to predict battery capacity with 1.9% mean absolute error for unseen cells using impedance recorded at a variety of temperatures and states-of-charge.

battery↗

Random Walk on a Perturbation of the Infinitely-Fast Mixing Interchange Process

We consider a random walk in dimension d≥1 in a dynamic random environment evolving as an interchange process with rate γ>0. We prove that, if we choose γ large enough, almost surely the empirical velocity of the walker X{sub t}/t eventually lies in an arbitrary small ball around the annealed drift. This statement is thus a perturbation of the case γ=+∞ where the environment is refreshed between each step of the walker. We extend three-way part of the results of Huveneers and Simenhaus (Electron J Probab 20(105):42, 2015), where the environment was given by the 1-dimensional exclusion process: (i) We deal with any dimension d≥1; (ii) We treat the much more general interchange process, where each particle carries a transition vector chosen according to an arbitrary law μ; (iii) We show that X{sub t}/t is not only in the same direction of the annealed drift, but that it is also close to it.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗