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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2022

Combining Machine Learning and Numerical Simulation for High-Resolution PM2.5 Concentration Forecast

Forecasting ambient PM2.5 concentrations with spatiotemporal coverage is key to alerting decision-makers of pollution episodes and preventing detrimental public exposure, especially in regions with limited ground air monitoring stations. The existing methods either rely on chemical transport models (CTMs) to forecast spatial distribution of PM2.5 with nontrivial uncertainty or statistical algorithms to forecast PM2.5 concentration time-series at air monitoring locations without continuous spatial coverage. In this study, we developed a PM2.5 forecast framework by combining the robust Random Forest algorithm with a publicly accessible global CTM forecast product – NASA’s Goddard Earth Observing System “Composition Forecasting” (GEOS-CF), providing spatiotemporally continuous PM2.5 concentration forecasts for the next five days at a 1-km spatial resolution. Our forecast experiment was conducted for a region in Central China including the populous and polluted Fenwei Plain. The forecast for the next two days had overall validation R2 of 0.76 and 0.64, respectively; the R2 was around 0.5 for the following three forecast days. Spatial cross-validation showed similar validation metrics. Our forecast model, with validation normalized mean bias close to zero, substantially reduced the large biases in GEOS-CF. The proposed framework requires minimal computational resources compared to running CTMs at urban scales, enabling near-real-time PM2.5 forecast in resource-restricted environments.

PM2.5↗
NASA NTRS2006

Precipitation and Latent Heating Distributions from Satellite Passive Microwave Radiometry. Part II: Evaluation of Estimates Using Independent Data

Rainfall rate estimates from spaceborne microwave radiometers are generally accepted as reliable by a majority of the atmospheric science community. One of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) facility rain-rate algorithms is based upon passive microwave observations from the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI). In Part I of this series, improvements of the TMI algorithm that are required to introduce latent heating as an additional algorithm product are described. Here, estimates of surface rain rate, convective proportion, and latent heating are evaluated using independent ground-based estimates and satellite products. Instantaneous, 0.5 deg. -resolution estimates of surface rain rate over ocean from the improved TMI algorithm are well correlated with independent radar estimates (r approx. 0.88 over the Tropics), but bias reduction is the most significant improvement over earlier algorithms. The bias reduction is attributed to the greater breadth of cloud-resolving model simulations that support the improved algorithm and the more consistent and specific convective/stratiform rain separation method utilized. The bias of monthly 2.5 -resolution estimates is similarly reduced, with comparable correlations to radar estimates. Although the amount of independent latent heating data is limited, TMI-estimated latent heating profiles compare favorably with instantaneous estimates based upon dual-Doppler radar observations, and time series of surface rain-rate and heating profiles are generally consistent with those derived from rawinsonde analyses. Still, some biases in profile shape are evident, and these may be resolved with (a) additional contextual information brought to the estimation problem and/or (b) physically consistent and representative databases supporting the algorithm. A model of the random error in instantaneous 0.5 deg. -resolution rain-rate estimates appears to be consistent with the levels of error determined from TMI comparisons with collocated radar. Error model modifications for nonraining situations will be required, however. Sampling error represents only a portion of the total error in monthly 2.5 -resolution TMI estimates; the remaining error is attributed to random and systematic algorithm errors arising from the physical inconsistency and/or nonrepresentativeness of cloud-resolving-model-simulated profiles that support the algorithm.

Yang, Song↗
NASA NTRS1992

Laboratory for Engineering Man/Machine Systems (LEMS): System identification, model reduction and deconvolution filtering using Fourier based modulating signals and high order statistics

Several important problems in the fields of signal processing and model identification, such as system structure identification, frequency response determination, high order model reduction, high resolution frequency analysis, deconvolution filtering, and etc. Each of these topics involves a wide range of applications and has received considerable attention. Using the Fourier based sinusoidal modulating signals, it is shown that a discrete autoregressive model can be constructed for the least squares identification of continuous systems. Some identification algorithms are presented for both SISO and MIMO systems frequency response determination using only transient data. Also, several new schemes for model reduction were developed. Based upon the complex sinusoidal modulating signals, a parametric least squares algorithm for high resolution frequency estimation is proposed. Numerical examples show that the proposed algorithm gives better performance than the usual. Also, the problem was studied of deconvolution and parameter identification of a general noncausal nonminimum phase ARMA system driven by non-Gaussian stationary random processes. Algorithms are introduced for inverse cumulant estimation, both in the frequency domain via the FFT algorithms and in the domain via the least squares algorithm.

Pan, Jianqiang↗
NASA NTRS2018

Machine Learning Application to Atmospheric Chemistry Modeling

Atmospheric chemistry is a high-dimensionality, large-data problem and thus may be suited to machine-learning algorithms. We show here the potential of a random forest regression algorithm to replace the gas-phase chemistry solver in the GEOS-Chem chemistry model. In this proof-of-concept study, we used one month of model output to train random forest regression models to predict the concentrations of each long-lived chemical species after integration based upon the physical and chemical conditions before the chemical integration. The choice of prediction type has a strong impact on the skill of the regression model. We find best results from predicting the change in concentration for very long-lived species and the absolute concentration for shorter lived species. The skill of the machine learning algorithm is further improved by using a family approach for NO and NO2 rather than treating them independently.By replacing the numerical integrator with the random forest algorithm and running this model for one month, we find that the model is able to reproduce many of the features of the reference chemistry simulation. Replacing the integration methodology with a machine learning algorithm has the potential to be substantially faster. There are a wide range of applications for such an approach, e.g. to generate boundary conditions, for use in air quality forecasts or chemical data assimilation systems, etc.

Keller, Christoph A.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Random Matrix Approach to Quantum Adiabatic Evolution Algorithms

We analyze the power of quantum adiabatic evolution algorithms (Q-QA) for solving random NP-hard optimization problems within a theoretical framework based on the random matrix theory (RMT). We present two types of the driven RMT models. In the first model, the driving Hamiltonian is represented by Brownian motion in the matrix space. We use the Brownian motion model to obtain a description of multiple avoided crossing phenomena. We show that the failure mechanism of the QAA is due to the interaction of the ground state with the "cloud" formed by all the excited states, confirming that in the driven RMT models. the Landau-Zener mechanism of dissipation is not important. We show that the QAEA has a finite probability of success in a certain range of parameters. implying the polynomial complexity of the algorithm. The second model corresponds to the standard QAEA with the problem Hamiltonian taken from the Gaussian Unitary RMT ensemble (GUE). We show that the level dynamics in this model can be mapped onto the dynamics in the Brownian motion model. However, the driven RMT model always leads to the exponential complexity of the algorithm due to the presence of the long-range intertemporal correlations of the eigenvalues. Our results indicate that the weakness of effective transitions is the leading effect that can make the Markovian type QAEA successful.

Boulatov, Alexei↗
NASA NTRS2020

Rocky Mountain Disasters - Using NASA Earth Observations to Monitor Post-Fire Vegetation Recovery in the Colorado Front Range

Forest composition and structure in the Colorado Front Range has been altered by changing wildfire regimes. In particular, increased moderate- and high-severity fire significantly reduces forest cover following fire and often results in reduced seedling regeneration. Reduced tree canopy regrowth has chronic effects on upland ecological function and downstream water quality. This project partnered with the US Forest Service to estimate long-term vegetation recovery following four Colorado Front Range fires between 1996 and 2002—the Bobcat, Buffalo Creek, Hayman, and High Meadows fires—using Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM),Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM+), and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI). The random forest algorithm was applied to produce maps of percent forest canopy cover for coniferous trees, deciduous trees, and all trees using time-series variables for pre- and post-fire as inputs. Similarly, maps of post-fire seedling regeneration were produced using random forest for coniferous trees,deciduous trees, and all trees using ecological drivers (soil, climate, fire, and topography) and pre-fire remote sensing predictors. Relationships between ecological drivers of post-fire vegetation trajectories were also evaluated. Additional analyses were conducted to (1) assess whether seedlings could be detected by Landsat or synthetic aperture radar (SAR) time-series analysis (2) assess pre-fire and post-fire Landsat variables against pre-fire and post-fire tree cover estimates to evaluate whether magnitude of forest change can be detected. Understanding variables that influence vegetative recovery, vegetation type conversion, and watershed characteristics will aid forest restoration efforts and water quality management.

Eric Jensen↗
NASA NTRS2018

Impacts of Snow and Cloud Covers on Satellite-Derived PM 2.5 Levels

Satellite aerosol optical depth (AOD) has been widely employed to evaluate ground fine particle (PM 2.5 ) levels, whereas snow/cloud covers often lead to a large proportion of non-random missing AOD. As a result, the fully covered and unbiased PM 2.5 estimates will be hard to generate. Among the current approaches to deal with the data gap issue, few have considered the cloud-AOD relationship and none of them have considered the snow-AOD relationship. This study examined the impacts of snow and cloud covers on AOD and PM 2.5 and made full-coverage PM 2.5 predictions with the consideration of these impacts. To estimate the missing AOD, daily gap-filling models with snow/cloud fractions and meteorological covariates were developed using the random forest algorithm. By using these models in New York State, a daily AOD data set with a 1-km resolution was generated with a complete coverage. The“out-of-bag” R 2 of the gap-filling models averaged 0.93 with an interquartile range from 0.90 to 0.95. Subsequently, a random forest-based PM 2.5 prediction model with the gap-filled AOD and covariates was built to predict fully covered PM 2.5 estimates. A ten-fold cross-validation for the prediction model showed a good performance with an R 2 of 0.82. In the gap-filling models, the snow fraction was of higher significance in the snow season compared with the rest of the year. The prediction models fitted with/without the snow fraction also suggested the discernible changes in PM 2.5 patterns, further confirming the significance of this parameter. Compared with the methods without considering snow and cloud covers, our PM 2.5 prediction surfaces showed more spatial details and reflected small-scale terrain-driven PM 2.5 patterns. The proposed methods can be generalized to the areas with extensive snow/cloud covers and large proportions of missing satellite AOD for predicting PM 2.5 levels with high resolutions and complete coverage.

AOD↗
NASA NTRS1990

Random search optimization based on genetic algorithm and discriminant function

The general problem of optimization with arbitrary merit and constraint functions, which could be convex, concave, monotonic, or non-monotonic, is treated using stochastic methods. To improve the efficiency of the random search methods, a genetic algorithm for the search phase and a discriminant function for the constraint-control phase were utilized. The validity of the technique is demonstrated by comparing the results to published test problem results. Numerical experimentation indicated that for cases where a quick near optimum solution is desired, a general, user-friendly optimization code can be developed without serious penalties in both total computer time and accuracy.

Kiciman, M. O.↗
NASA NTRS2000

JavaGenes and Condor: Cycle-Scavenging Genetic Algorithms

A genetic algorithm code, JavaGenes, was written in Java and used to evolve pharmaceutical drug molecules and digital circuits. JavaGenes was run under the Condor cycle-scavenging batch system managing 100-170 desktop SGI workstations. Genetic algorithms mimic biological evolution by evolving solutions to problems using crossover and mutation. While most genetic algorithms evolve strings or trees, JavaGenes evolves graphs representing (currently) molecules and circuits. Java was chosen as the implementation language because the genetic algorithm requires random splitting and recombining of graphs, a complex data structure manipulation with ample opportunities for memory leaks, loose pointers, out-of-bound indices, and other hard to find bugs. Java garbage-collection memory management, lack of pointer arithmetic, and array-bounds index checking prevents these bugs from occurring, substantially reducing development time. While a run-time performance penalty must be paid, the only unacceptable performance we encountered was using standard Java serialization to checkpoint and restart the code. This was fixed by a two-day implementation of custom checkpointing. JavaGenes is minimally integrated with Condor; in other words, JavaGenes must do its own checkpointing and I/O redirection. A prototype Java-aware version of Condor was developed using standard Java serialization for checkpointing. For the prototype to be useful, standard Java serialization must be significantly optimized. JavaGenes is approximately 8700 lines of code and a few thousand JavaGenes jobs have been run. Most jobs ran for a few days. Results include proof that genetic algorithms can evolve directed and undirected graphs, development of a novel crossover operator for graphs, a paper in the journal Nanotechnology, and another paper in preparation.

Globus, Al↗
NASA NTRS1975

The analysis of the pilot's cognitive and decision processes

Articles are presented on pilot performance in zero-visibility precision approach, failure detection by pilots during automatic landing, experiments in pilot decision-making during simulated low visibility approaches, a multinomial maximum likelihood program, and a random search algorithm for laboratory computers. Other topics discussed include detection of system failures in multi-axis tasks and changes in pilot workload during an instrument landing.

Curry, R. E.↗
NASA NTRS1982

On the interaction of auroral protons with the earth's atmosphere

The interaction of energetic auroral protons with the atmosphere is investigated. The results of a random number algorithm that describes the proton-hydrogen interconversion reactions as the beam loses energy are adopted to construct an energy deposition curve applicable over a wide range of initial proton energies. Ionization rates and production rates of ejected electrons are computed and emission rates of hydrogen Balmer alpha and beta lines are evaluated using recently available low energy cross-sections.

Rees, M. H.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Parameter estimation in truss beams using Timoshenko beam model with damping

Truss beams with members having viscous damping are modeled with a Timoshenko beam. Procedures for deriving the equivalent bending rigidity, transverse shear rigidity, and damping are presented. Explicit expressions for these equivalent beam properties are obtained for a specific truss beam. The beam model thus established is then used to investigate the effect of damping in free vibration. Finally, the beam is employed in the estimation of structural parameters in a simply-supported truss beam using a random search algorithm.

Sun, C. T.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Search Space Characterization for a Telescope Scheduling Application

This paper presents a technique for statistically characterizing a search space and demonstrates the use of this technique within a practical telescope scheduling application. The characterization provides the following: (i) an estimate of the search space size, (ii) a scaling technique for multi-attribute objective functions and search heuristics, (iii) a "quality density function" for schedules in a search space, (iv) a measure of a scheduler's performance, and (v) support for constructing and tuning search heuristics. This paper describes the random sampling algorithm used to construct this characterization and explains how it can be used to produce this information. As an example, we include a comparative analysis of an heuristic dispatch scheduler and a look-ahead scheduler that performs greedy search.

Bresina, John↗
NASA NTRS2002

The Three-Dimensional Combustion of Heterogeneous Propellants

A numerical framework is described which permits the calculation of the 3-D combustion field supported by a heterogeneous propellant, allowing for complete coupling between the condensed phase physics, the gas-phase physics, and the unsteady, uneven, regressing surface. A random packing algorithm is used to construct models of ammonium-perchlorate in hydroxyl-terminated-polybutadiene propellants which mimic experimental propellants designed by R. Miller, and these are numerically burnt. Mean burning rates are compared with experimental data for four packs, over a pressure range of 7-200atm.

Massa, L.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Observed Trend in Surface Wind Speed Over the Conterminous USA and CMIP5 Simulations

There has been no spatial surface wind map even over the conterminous USA due to the difficulty of spatial interpolation of wind field. As a result, the reanalysis data were often used to analyze the statistics of spatial pattern in surface wind speed. Unfortunately, no consistent trend in wind field was found among the available reanalysis data, and that obstructed the further analysis or projection of spatial pattern of wind speed. In this study, we developed the methodology to interpolate the observed wind speed data at weather stations using random forest algorithm. We produced the 1-km daily climate variables over the conterminous USA from 1979 to 2015. The validation using Ameriflux daily data showed that R2 is 0.59. Existing studies have found the negative trend over the Eastern US, and our study also showed same results. However, our new datasets also revealed the significant increasing trend over the southwest US especially from April to June. The trend in the southwestern US represented change or seasonal shift in North American Monsoon. Global analysis of CMIP5 data projected the decrease trend in mid-latitude, while increase trend in tropical region over the land. Most likely because of the low resolution in GCM, CMIP5 data failed to simulate the increase trend in the southwest US, even though it was qualitatively predicted that pole ward shift of anticyclone help the North American Monsoon.

simulations↗
NASA NTRS2018

Computational Model Prediction and Biological Validation Using Simplified Mixed Field Exposures for the Development of a GCR Reference Field

The yield of chromosomal aberrations has been shown to increase in the lymphocytes of astronauts after long-duration missions of several months in space. Chromosome exchanges, especially translocations, are positively correlated with many cancers and are therefore a potential biomarker of cancer risk associated with radiation exposure. Although extensive studies have been carried out on the induction of chromosomal aberrations by low- and high-LET radiation in human lymphocytes, fibroblasts, and epithelial cells exposed in vitro, there is a lack of data on chromosome aberrations induced by low dose-rate chronic exposure and mixed field beams such as those expected in space. Chromosome aberration studies at NSRL will provide the biological validation needed to extend the computational models over a broader range of experimental conditions (more complicated mixed fields leading up to the galactic cosmic rays (GCR) simulator), helping to reduce uncertainties in radiation quality effects and dose-rate dependence in cancer risk models. These models can then be used to answer some of the open questions regarding requirements for a full GCR reference field, including particle type and number, energy, dose rate, and delivery order. In this study, we designed a simplified mixed field beam with a combination of proton, helium, oxygen, and iron ions with shielding or proton, helium, oxygen, and titanium without shielding. Human fibroblasts cells were irradiated with these mixed field beam as well as each single beam with acute and chronic dose rate, and chromosome aberrations (CA) were measured with 3-color fluorescent in situ hybridization (FISH) chromosome painting methods. Frequency and type of CA induced with acute dose rate and chronic dose rates with single and mixed field beam will be discussed. A computational chromosome and radiation-induced DNA damage model, BDSTRACKS (Biological Damage by Stochastic Tracks), was updated to simulate various types of CA induced by acute exposures of the mixed field beams used for the experiments. The chromosomes were simulated by a polymer random walk algorithm with restrictions to their respective domains in the nucleus [1]. The stochastic dose to the nucleus was calculated with the code RITRACKS [2]. Irradiation of a target volume by a mixed field of ions was implemented within RITRACKs, and the fields of ions can be delivered over specific periods of time, allowing the simulation of dose-rate effects. Similarly, particles of various types and energies extracted from a pre-calculated spectra of galactic cosmic rays (GCR) can be used in RITRACKS. The number and spatial location of DSBs (DNA double-strand breaks) were calculated in BDSTRACKS using the simulated chromosomes and local (voxel) dose. Assuming that DSBs led to chromosome breaks, and simulating the rejoining of damaged chromosomes occurring during repair, BDSTRACKS produces the yield of various types of chromosome aberrations as a function of time (only final yields are presented). A comparison between experimental and simulation results will be shown.

Hada, M.↗