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DOE OSTI2026

Measuring the Stress Factors for Photovoltaic (PV) Backsheet Degradation

Back sheet failure has resulted in power loss and large-scale recall of photovoltaic modules, resulting in billions of dollars in lost revenue. The light exposure on the backside of a photovoltaic module comes primarily from reflected light which alters the distribution of natural sunlight. Because of this, modelling the backside exposure and duplicating the exposure is much more difficult than modeling the frontside exposure. This project aims to study how various back sheets and junction box materials degrade under different conditions and to develop Python code to help model and predict degradation. The stress factors for back-sheet degradation must be quantified to extrapolate accelerated stress tests to the field. Test samples were placed in the A3, A4, and A5 conditions, as defined in IEC 62788-7-2, to assess the temperature and humidity dependence of ultraviolet (UV) induced degradation. We are utilizing a custom chamber with exposure from 0.5 UV-suns to 5 UV-suns to understand the dependence of degradation on light intensity. A group of samples put in the A3 condition had glass filters with 50% UV cut-offs of 320 nm, 335 nm, and 360 nm to assess the wavelength dependence of UV degradation. All this data is necessary to assess the impact of non-standard UV light exposure. The material evaluation tests include gloss measurements, attenuated total internal reflectance Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (ATR-FTIR), UV-visible reflectance/transmittance utilizing a Cary Ci7000 spectrophotometer, and a nano-indenter for surface hardness and modulus measurements. Alongside the experimental work, there is a computational effort using raytracing and Python open-source tools in PVDeg , PVLib, and Bifacial_Radiance. This code will create specific exposure scenarios and enable the evaluation of chamber degradation relative to field degradation. Equation 1 is a strawman equation used to model degradation on the backside of a PV module. We will create simplified code, based on the results of ray-tracing calculations, which uses a view factor approach to provide fast calculations for the most common exposure scenarios.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Characterizing the Impact of Heliostat Size, Focus Method, and Optical Error on Concentrating Solar Tower Systems

Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) tower systems use heliostat fields to direct solar energy to a central receiver. The efficiency of the heliostat field is crucial for achieving thermal generation targets and is also the largest cost component, making up 30-40% of total project costs. Developers face a tradeoff: reducing heliostat costs may decrease optical performance and increase land use, while improving performance could raise manufacturing costs (through higher precision). The optimal design depends on land, labor, and manufacturing costs. Additionally, inherent performance limitations exist - optical errors result in larger solar images as heliostats move farther from the receiver, increasing spillage and attenuation losses. Ultimately, there exists a point where receiver design power can no longer be achieved at design conditions for a given solar field area. This point depends on key heliostat field design parameters including field layout, heliostats size, focus method, and heliostat optical error. In this work, we explore and characterize the performance trade-offs between heliostat size, focus method, and optical error using Monte Carlo ray-tracing simulations using NREL's high performance computing resources. The goal of this fundamental investigation is to understand practical heliostat design performance impacts that can be used to produce more cost-effective heliostat fields while still achieving plant thermal generation targets.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Scalable Gaussian Process Approach to Shear Mapping with MuyGPs

Analysis of cosmic shear is an integral part of understanding structure growth across cosmic time, which in turn provides us with information about the nature of dark energy. Conventional methods generate shear maps from which we can infer the matter distribution in the universe. Current methods (e.g., Kaiser–Squires inversion) for generating these maps, however, are tricky to implement and can introduce bias. Recent alternatives construct a spatial process prior for the lensing potential, which allows for inference of the convergence and shear parameters given lensing shear measurements. Realizing these spatial processes, however, scales cubically in the number of observations—an unacceptable expense as near-term surveys expect billions of correlated measurements. Therefore, we present a linearly scaling shear map construction alternative using a scalable Gaussian process prior called MuyGPs. MuyGPs avoids cubic scaling by conditioning interpolation on only nearest neighbors and fits hyperparameters using batched leave-one-out cross-validation. This work is the first step toward a full, scalable mass mapping method. We work in a simplified regime where we validate our method by interpolating and analyzing maps given noisy point-estimate data from all three shear fields, taken from a suite of N -body ray-tracing simulations. We also show that we can perform these operations at the scale of billions of galaxies on high-performance computing platforms.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Changing-look Active Galactic Nuclei Powered by Disk Tearing

Changing-look active galactic nuclei (CLAGN) feature order-of-magnitude variability in both the continuum and broad line luminosities on months-to-years-long timescales, and are currently unexplained. Simulations have demonstrated that rotating black holes (BHs) sometimes tear apart tilted accretion disks. These tearing events violently restructure the disk on timescales much shorter than a viscous timescale, hinting at a connection to CLAGN. Here, we show that disk tearing can power changing-look events. We report synthetic observations of an extremely high-resolution, three-dimensional, general-relativistic magnetohydrodynamic simulation of a geometrically thin, tilted accretion disk around a rapidly rotating, 10 8 M ⊙ BH. We perform ray-tracing calculations that follow the thermal disk emission to both a line-of-sight camera and to a distribution of cameras in a prescribed torus-like broad-line region (BLR). The continuum photoionizes the BLR, and we calculate the resulting spectrum. Both the continuum and line luminosities undergo order-of-magnitude swings on months-to-years-long timescales. We find shorter, week-long variability driven by the geometric precession of the inner disk and an intraday quasiperiodic oscillation driven by radial breathing of the inner disk. When the torn disk precesses, it causes asymmetric illumination of the BLR, driving time-evolving red-to-blue asymmetries of the broad emission lines that may be a smoking gun for disk tearing. We also make predictions for future photometric observations from ULTRASAT and Vera Rubin Observatory, given a Shakura–Sunyaev–like effective temperature profile, both of which may play an important role in detecting future changing-look events. Future work should consider nonthermal emission, especially from the time-variable corona.

accretion↗

NASA NTRS1967

Automatic design of optical systems by digital computer

Computer program uses geometrical optical techniques and a least squares optimization method employing computing equipment for the automatic design of optical systems. It evaluates changes in various optical parameters, provides comprehensive ray-tracing, and generally determines the acceptability of the optical system characteristics.

Casad, T. A.↗

NASA NTRS1972

Design parameters of paraboloid-hyperboloid telescopes for X-ray astronomy.

A systematic evaluation has been made of the principal optical properties of paraboloid-hyperboloid X-ray telescopes using a ray-tracing procedure. It has been found that the results obtained for resolution, focal plane curvature, and finite source distance effects may be approximated in terms of the design parameters by simple empirical formulas.

Vanspeybroeck, L. P.↗

NASA NTRS1972

Current methods of radio occultation data inversion

The methods of Abel integral transform and ray-tracing inversion have been applied to data received from radio occultation experiments as a means of obtaining refractive index profiles of the ionospheres and atmospheres of Mars and Venus. In the case of Mars, certain simplifications are introduced by the assumption of small refractive bending in the atmosphere. General inversion methods, independent of the thin atmosphere approximation, have been used to invert the data obtained from the radio occultation of Mariner 5 by Venus; similar methods will be used to analyze data obtained from Jupiter with Pioneers F and G, as well as from the other outer planets in the Outer Planet Grand Tour Missions.

Kliore, A. J.↗

NASA NTRS1974

A test of incoherent Cerenkov radiation for VLF hiss and other magnetospheric emissions

Consideration of incoherent Cerenkov radiation from intense fluxes of electrons in the magnetosphere as a source of VLF hiss and several other emission phenomena. A procedure for calculating the Cerenkov and cyclotron radiation power from a spectrum of electrons in a test volume is outlined, as well as a ray-tracing routine for determining the path that the emitted power follows through the magnetosphere. Comparisons are made between a VLF hiss event and an energetic particle spectrum observed simultaneously with the Injun 5 spacecraft. Calculated power and fields for incoherent Cerenkov radiation are two orders of magnitude below the observed VLf hiss values, although the spectral shapes are similar. It is concluded that a partially coherent or amplified Cerenkov source or an instability is located in the altitude range from 3000 to 10,000 km. Calculations regarding Cerenkov radiation as a possible source for other wave phenomena indicate that upper hybrid resonance noise and fast hisslers may be understood in terms of incoherent Cerenkov radiation, but that V-shaped VLF hiss, saucers, ELF hiss, and Io-related Jovian decametric radiation may not.

Taylor, W. W. L.↗

NASA NTRS1975

Evaluation of image quality in a Cassegrain-type telescope with an oscillating secondary mirror

A ray-trace analysis is described of aberrations and extreme rays of a Cassegrain-type telescope with a tilted secondary mirror. The work was motivated by the need to understand the factors limiting image quality and to assist in the design of secondary mirrors for three telescopes with oscillating secondary mirrors (OSM) used at Ames Research Center for high altitude infrared astronomy. The telescopes are a 31-cm-diameter Dall-Kirkham (elliptical primary, spherical secondary) flown aboard a Lear jet, a 71-cm balloon-borne Dall-Kirkham flown on the AIROscope gondola, and a 91-cm true Cassegrain (parabolic primary, hyperbolic secondary) flown aboard a C-141 jet transport. The optics for these telescopes were not designed specifically for OSM operation, but all have OSM's and all must be used with various detector configurations; therefore, a facility that evaluates the performance of a telescope for a given configuration is useful. The analytical expressions are summarized and results for the above systems are discussed. Details of the calculation and a discussion of the computer program are given in the appendices.

Erickson, E. F.↗

NASA NTRS1975

Propagation predictions and studies using a ray tracing program combined with a theoretical ionospheric model

Radio wave propagation predictions are described in which modern comprehensive theoretical ionospheric models are coupled with ray-tracing programs. In the computer code described, a network of electron density and collision frequency parameters along a band about the great circle path is calculated by specifying the transmitter and receiver geographic coordinates, time, the day number, and the 2800-MHz solar flux. The ray paths are calculated on specifying the frequency, mode, range of elevation angles, and range of azimuth angles from the great circle direction. The current program uses a combination of the Penn State MKI E and F region models and the Mitra-Rowe D and E region model. Application of the technique to the prediction of satellite to ground propagation and calculation of oblique incidence propagation paths and absorption are described. The implications of the study to the development of the next generation of ionospheric models are discussed.

Lee, M. K.↗

NASA NTRS1977

Primary aberrations for grazing incidence

Beginning with exact relations between object and image coordinates for a single reflective surface, a systematic analysis of general grazing incidence systems is presented. A complete set of primary aberrations for single-element and two-element systems is developed. The importance of a judicious choice for a coordinate system in showing field curvature to be clearly the predominant aberration for a two-element system is discussed. The validity of the theory is verified through comparisons with the exact ray-trace results for the case of a telescope.

Winkler, C. E.↗

NASA NTRS1976

Technical feasibility of a modular dish solar electric system

The paper presents the technical feasibility of generating electricity by using a gas turbine in conjunction with a paraboloid of revolution (dish) solar concentrator. A conceptual design of a dish concentrator is obtained by parametrically examining the significant optical parameters. The optical performance analysis was conducted using a Monte Carlo ray-trace simulation program. The performance of four candidate thermodynamic cycles utilizing two working fluids was analyzed; the cycles were the regenerative and nonregenerative Brayton cycles of both open and closed type. Air and helium were the working fluids for the open and closed type respectively. Heat transfer from the solar radiation to the gas flowing in metal tubes at the receiver was also analyzed. A paraboloid of revolution dish with a cavity receiver using an open air regenerative Brayton cycle turbine emerged as a technically feasible concept in the power range from 30 to 100 KWth per module.

Gupta, B. P.↗

NASA NTRS1977

The linear Fresnel lens - Solar optical analysis of tracking error effects

Real sun-tracking solar concentrators imperfectly follow the solar disk, operationally sustaining both transverse and axial misalignments. This paper describes an analysis of the solar concentration performance of a line-focusing flat-base Fresnel lens in the presence of small transverse tracking errors. Simple optics and ray-tracing techniques are used to evaluate the lens solar transmittance and focal-plane imaging characteristics. Computer-generated example data for an f/1.0 lens indicate that less than a 1% transmittance degradation occurs for transverse errors up to 2.5 deg. In this range, solar-image profiles shift laterally in the focal plane, the peak concentration ratio drops, and profile asymmetry increases with tracking error. With profile shift as the primary factor, the ninety-percent target-intercept width increases rapidly for small misalignments, e.g., almost threefold for a 1-deg error. The analytical model and computational results provide a design base for tracking and absorber systems for the linear-Fresnel-lens solar concentrator.

Cosby, R. M.↗

NASA NTRS1977

Spacecraft observations of man-made whistler-mode signals near the electron gyrofrequency

The reported investigation extends the range of whistler-mode wave observations to a wave frequency/electron gyrofrequency ratio of about 0.9, where an abrupt cutoff is observed. This cutoff can be explained entirely in terms of accessibility and hence, if there is damping, it must be limited to normalized frequencies above 0.9. In connection with a study of the behavior of the signal intensity, ray tracings were carried out at 80 kHz. The ray-tracing calculations were carried out with the aid of a computer program written by Walter (1969) and modified by Angerami (1970).

Dunckel, N.↗

NASA NTRS1977

Study of stratospheric-ionospheric coupling during thunderstorms and tornadoes

A continuous-wave-spectrum high-frequency Doppler sounder array with three transmitters at each of three sites was used to observe the dynamics of the coupling of energy between the stratosphere and the ionosphere. During times of severe weather activity wavelike disturbances have been detected on ground-based ionospheric sounding records as perturbations in electron densities. Infrasonic waves with wave periods of 3-7 min and with horizontal phase velocities of 600-800 m/s were observed when there was thunderstorm activity; gravity waves with wave periods of 10-15 min and horizontal phase velocities of 100-200 m/s were detected when there was tornado activity. Both triangulations from the cross correlation functions of the Doppler records based on an assumption of no background wind shear and ray-tracing computations including an assumed background wind shear indicate that the waves originated in the vicinity of the thunderstorms and tornadoes. A comparison of the wavelengths of the infrasonic and gravity waves observed at ionospheric heights and those in cloud-top pictures from satellites show that they are all of the order of 100-300 km.

Hung, R. J.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Mesospheric heating due to intense tropospheric convection

A series of rocket measurements made twice daily at Wallops Island, Va., revealed a rapid heating of the mesosphere on the order of 10 K on days when thunderstorms or squall lines were in the area. This heating is explained as the result of frictional dissipation of vertically propagating internal gravity waves generated by intense tropospheric convection. Ray-tracing theory is used to determine the spectrum of gravity wave groups that actually reach mesospheric heights. This knowledge is used in an equation describing the spectral energy density of a penetrative convective element to calculate the fraction of the total energy initially available to excite those waves that do reach the level of heating. This value, converted into a vertical velocity, is used as the lower boundary condition for a multilayer model used to determine the detailed structure of the vertically propagating waves. The amount of frictional dissipation produced by the waves is calculated from the solutions of the frictionless model by use of a vertically varying eddy viscosity coefficient. The heating produced by the dissipation is then calculated from the thermodynamic equation.

Taylor, L. L.↗

NASA NTRS1980

Computer prediction of large reflector antenna radiation properties

A FORTRAN program for calculating reflector antenna radiation patterns was rewritten and extended to include reflectors composed of a number of panels. These individual panels must be analytic surfaces. The theoretical foundation for the program is as follows: Geometrical optics techniques are used to trace rays from a feed antenna to the reflector surface and back to a mathematical plane just in front of the reflector. The resulting tangential electric field distribution, assumed to be the only source of forward radiation, is integrated numerically to calculate the radiation pattern for a desired set of angles. When the reflector is composed of more than one panel, each panel is treated as a separated antenna, the ray-tracing procedure and integration being repeated for each panel. The results of the individual aperture plane integrations are stored and summed to yield the relative electric field strength over the angles of interest. An example and several test cases are included to demonstrate the use of the program and verify the new method of computation.

Botula, A.↗

NASA NTRS1980

Gravity waves and GOES IR data study of an isolated tornadic storm on 29 May 1977

Enhanced convection-initiated gravity waves associated with an isolated tornado in the absence of a squall line are investigated. Ray-tracing computations based on data observed on May 29, 1977 indicated that the wave sources were located in north-central Oklahoma. Comparison with a radar echo map during the time period when the waves were excited showed that the waves were generated by an isolated cloud with enhanced convection. GOES infrared digital data during the time period from wave excitation to tornado touchdown were analyzed. Results showed that the cloud where the gravity waves were excited was characterized by both a very low temperature at the cloud top and a very high expansion rate of the cold cloud-top area. The lead time between the excitation of the gravity waves and the tornado touchdown is discussed in conjunction with the growth rate of the clouds associated with the tornado.

Hung, R. J.↗