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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Harmonizing tau positron emission tomography in Alzheimer's disease: The CenTauR scale and the joint propagation model

Abstract INTRODUCTION Tau‐positron emission tomography (PET) outcome data of patients with Alzheimer's disease (AD) cannot currently be meaningfully compared or combined when different tracers are used due to differences in tracer properties, instrumentation, and methods of analysis. METHODS Using head‐to‐head data from five cohorts with tau PET radiotracers designed to target tau deposition in AD, we tested a joint propagation model (JPM) to harmonize quantification (units termed “CenTauR” [CTR]). JPM is a statistical model that simultaneously models the relationships between head‐to‐head and anchor point data. JPM was compared to a linear regression approach analogous to the one used in the amyloid PET Centiloid scale. RESULTS A strong linear relationship was observed between CTR values across brain regions. Using the JPM approach, CTR estimates were similar to, but more accurate than, those derived using the linear regression approach. DISCUSSION Preliminary findings using the JPM support the development and adoption of a universal scale for tau‐PET quantification. Highlights Tested a novel joint propagation model (JPM) to harmonize quantification of tau PET. Units of common scale are termed “CenTauRs”. Tested a Centiloid‐like linear regression approach. Using five cohorts with head‐to‐head tau PET, JPM outperformed linearregressionbased approach. Strong linear relationship was observed between CenTauRs values across brain regions.

Neurosciences & Neurology↗
DOE OSTI2026

Prediction of Creep-Induced Strain Using a Symbolic Regression-Based Model

Material creep under high-temperature conditions limits the lifetime and safety of structural systems such as advanced nuclear reactors. Conventional creep testing is slow and often produces inconsistent results across nominally identical experiments, making lifetime prediction uncertain. Here, to address these challenges, this work develops a data-driven symbolic regression (SR) model that consolidates results from duplicate creep tests and predicts the remaining strain-time curve of an ongoing experiment. The method uses piece-wise multi-objective SR with physical constraints to generate analytic, interpretable functions describing transient creep strain. Applied to Inconel Alloy 617 data, the approach achieved relative mean absolute errors of 1.0–9.5%, providing closed-form predictions of strain evolution. These results demonstrate a first step toward reducing the duration and cost of long-term creep testing while retaining physically interpretable model forms.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Ultrasonic-Assisted Extrusion Processing for Enhancing Physical Properties of High-Density Polyethylene by Flow-Induced Crystallization

The evolution of crystallinity resulting from stress imposed on a melt, known as flow-induced crystallinity, can strongly influence the mechanical and physical properties of semicrystalline polymers. This study investigates shear-induced crystallization by applying an ultrasonic field to the melt flow as it passes through dies with various geometries. A custom-built sonication die is employed for controlling the dynamic temperature and shear environment, resulting in molecular alignment and potential for flow-induced crystallization. Application of both conventional and ultrasonic shear rates at the equilibrium melt temperature of high-density polyethylene (HDPE) was investigated to accelerate crystallinity and manipulate the crystal morphology across the film in pursuit of improved mechanical and gas barrier properties without the need for additives or other polymer layers. The relationships among ultrasonic-assisted extrusion processing, polymer structure, and performance were analyzed using wide- and small-angle X-ray scattering (WAXS and SAXS), tensile testing, and oxygen transmission rate (OTR) analysis. Multiple linear regression models were implemented to predict the correlation among HDPE structure, process, and properties. Structural analysis revealed that both conventional and ultrasonic shear rates had the most significant influence on lamellar spacing and redistribution of rigid and soft amorphous fractions within the crystalline domains, ultimately dictating the mechanical and physical properties of the films. The goal is to explore the potential of the ultrasonic-assisted high crystallinity monolayer that can replace some of the functionality of complex, heterogeneous multilayer packaging with a single-material film having enhanced oxygen barrier properties.

crystallinity↗
DOE OSTI2025

Many-body expansion based machine learning models for octahedral transition metal complexes

Abstract Graph-based machine learning (ML) models for material properties show great potential to accelerate virtual high-throughput screening of large chemical spaces. However, in their simplest forms, graph-based models do not include any 3D information and are unable to distinguish stereoisomers such as those arising from different orderings of ligands around a metal center in coordination complexes. In this work we present a modification to revised autocorrelation descriptors, a molecular graph featurization method, for predicting spin state dependent properties of octahedral transition metal complexes (TMCs). Inspired by analytical semi-empirical models for TMCs, the new modeling strategy is based on the many-body expansion (MBE) and allows one to tune the captured stereoisomer information by changing the truncation order of the MBE. We present the necessary modifications to include this approach in two commonly used ML methods, kernel ridge regression and feed-forward neural networks. On a test set composed of all possible isomers of binary TMCs, the best MBE models achieve mean absolute errors (MAEs) of 2.75 kcal mol −1 on spin-splitting energies and 0.26 eV on frontier orbital energy gaps, a 30%–40% reduction in error compared to models based on our previous approach. We also observe improved generalization to previously unseen ligands where the best-performing models exhibit MAEs of 4.00 kcal mol −1 (i.e. a 0.73 kcal mol −1 reduction) on the spin-splitting energies and 0.53 eV (i.e. a 0.10 eV reduction) on the frontier orbital energy gaps. Because the new approach incorporates insights from electronic structure theory, such as ligand additivity relationships, these models exhibit systematic generalization from homoleptic to heteroleptic complexes, allowing for efficient screening of TMC search spaces.

Meyer, Ralf (ORCID:0000000322360261)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Data-Driven Digital Twin for Reliability Assessment of DC/DC Buck Converter

In commercial applications, the operation of DC/DC converters significantly impacts overall system performance and long-term reliability. This study introduces a data-driven digital twin (DT) approach for estimating critical degradation parameters of DC/DC BUCK converter under steady-state condition. Initially, a circuit-level MATLAB/Simulink digital model (DM C ) is refined against a hardware prototype’s switching model dataset using offline particle swarm optimization. The optimized digital model’s steady-state response is then verified with its average model response while varying the duty and load. Subsequently, degradation profiles are imposed on the inductor, capacitor, MOSFET in the DMC. A large dataset is generated from this model, allowing training, validation, and testing of machine learning (ML) models for component health regression tasks. The proposed method employs random forest ML models, achieving impressive regression results with a squared R value as high as 0.99978 and a root mean square error of 4.2× 10 –6 . The method is further validated on a medium power level DC/DC BUCK prototype with varying load conditions, and includes the analysis of MOSFET’s on-resistance under degradation conditions. This data-driven DT method shows promise for identifying parasitic degradation and ohmic loss parameters, enhancing converter reliability assessments in a non-invasive, generalized, and computationally efficient manner.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Serum bile acid and unsaturated fatty acid profiles of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease in type 2 diabetic patients

The understanding of bile acid (BA) and unsaturated fatty acid (UFA) profiles, as well as their dysregulation, remains elusive in individuals with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) coexisting with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Investigating these metabolites could offer valuable insights into the pathophy-siology of NAFLD in T2DM. Our aim is to identify potential metabolite biomarkers capable of distinguishing between NAFLD and T2DM. A training model was developed involving 399 participants, comprising 113 healthy controls (HCs), 134 individuals with T2DM without NAFLD, and 152 individuals with T2DM and NAFLD. External validation encompassed 172 participants. NAFLD patients were divided based on liver fibrosis scores. The analytical approach employed univariate testing, orthogonal partial least squares-discriminant analysis, logistic regression, receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, and decision curve analysis to pinpoint and assess the diagnostic value of serum biomarkers. Compared to HCs, both T2DM and NAFLD groups exhibited diminished levels of specific BAs. In UFAs, particular acids exhibited a positive correlation with NAFLD risk in T2DM, while the ω-6:ω-3 UFA ratio demonstrated a negative correlation. Levels of α-linolenic acid and γ-linolenic acid were linked to significant liver fibrosis in NAFLD. The validation cohort substantiated the predictive efficacy of these biomarkers for assessing NAFLD risk in T2DM patients. This study underscores the connection between altered BA and UFA profiles and the presence of NAFLD in individuals with T2DM, proposing their potential as biomarkers in the pathogenesis of NAFLD.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Compensating for Sintering Distortion in Additively Manufactured Shaped Charge Liners using Physics-Informed Machine Learning

Copper is a challenging material to process using laser-based additive manufacturing due to its high reflectivity and high thermal conductivity. Sintering-based processes can produce solid copper parts without the processing challenges and defects associated with laser melting; however, sintering can also cause distortion in copper parts, especially those with thin walls. In this study, we use physics-informed Gaussian process regression to predict and compensate for sintering distortion in thin-walled copper parts produced using a Markforged Metal X bound powder extrusion (BPE) additive manufacturing system. Through experimental characterization and computational simulation of copper’s viscoelastic sintering behavior, we can predict sintering deformation. We can then manufacture, simulate, and test parts with various compensation scaling factors to inform Gaussian process regression and predict a compensated as-printed (pre-sintered) part geometry that produces the desired final (post-sintered) part.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Constraining Galaxy-Halo connection using machine learning

We investigate the potential of machine learning (ML) methods to model small-scale galaxy clustering for constraining Halo Occupation Distribution (HOD) parameters. Our analysis reveals that while many ML algorithms report good statistical fits, they often yield likelihood contours that are significantly biased in both mean values and variances relative to the true model parameters. This highlights the importance of careful data processing and algorithm selection in ML applications for galaxy clustering, as even seemingly robust methods can lead to biased results if not applied correctly. ML tools offer a promising approach to exploring the HOD parameter space with significantly reduced computational costs compared to traditional brute-force methods if their robustness is established. Using our ANN-based pipeline, we successfully recreate some standard results from recent literature. Properly restricting the HOD parameter space, transforming the training data, and carefully selecting ML algorithms are essential for achieving unbiased and robust predictions. Among the methods tested, artificial neural networks (ANNs) outperform random forests (RF) and ridge regression in predicting clustering statistics, when the HOD prior space is appropriately restricted. We demonstrate these findings using the projected two-point correlation function (w p (r p )), angular multipoles of the correlation function (ξ ℓ (r)), and the void probability function (VPF) of Luminous Red Galaxies from Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument mocks. Our results show that while combining w p (r p ) and VPF improves parameter constraints, adding the multipoles ξ 0 , ξ 2 , and ξ 4 to w p (r p ) does not significantly improve the constraints.

cosmology↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating the potential of short-term instrument deployment to improve distributed wind resource assessment

Distributed wind projects, which are connected at the distribution level of an electricity system or in off-grid applications to serve specific or local energy needs, often rely solely on wind resource models to establish wind speed and energy generation expectations. Historically, anemometer loan programs have provided an affordable avenue for more accurate onsite wind resource assessment, and the lowering cost of lidar systems has shown similar advantages for more recent assessments. While a full 12 months of onsite wind measurement is the standard for correcting model-based long-term wind speed estimates for utility-scale wind farms, the time and capital investment involved in gathering onsite measurements must be reconciled with the energy needs and funding opportunities that drive expedient deployment of distributed wind projects. Much literature exists to quantify the performance of correcting long-term wind speed estimates with 1 or more years of observational data, but few studies explore the impacts of correcting with months-long observational periods. This study aims to answer the question of how short you can go in terms of the observational time period needed to make impactful improvements to model-based long-term wind speed estimates. Three algorithms, multivariable linear regression, adaptive regression splines, and regression trees, are evaluated for their skill at correcting long-term wind resource estimates from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis version 5 (ERA5) using months-long periods of observational data from 66 locations across the US. On average, correction with even 1 month of observations provides significant improvement over the baseline ERA5 wind speed estimates and produces median bias magnitudes and relative errors within 0.22 m s −1 and 4 percentage points of the median bias magnitudes and relative errors achieved using the standard 12 months of data for correction. However, in cases when the shortest observational periods (1 to 2 months) used for correction are not well correlated with the overlapping ERA5 reference, the resultant long-term wind speed errors are worse than those produced using ERA5 without correction. Summer months, which are characterized by weaker relative wind speeds and standard deviations for most of the evaluation sites, tend to produce the worst results for long-term correction using months-long observations. The three tested algorithms perform similarly for long-term wind speed bias; however, regression trees perform notably worse than multivariable linear regression and adaptive regression splines in terms of correlation when using 6 months or less of observational data for correction. Translating the analysis to wind energy, median relative errors in the capacity factor are on average within 10 % using 1 month of training. If the observation period used for correction is not well correlated with the reference data, however, misrepresentation of the observed capacity factor can be substantial. The risk associated with poor correlation between the observed and reference datasets decreases with increasing training period length. In the worst-correlation scenarios, the median capacity factor relative errors from using 1, 3, and 6 months are within 47 %, 26 %, and 16 %, respectively.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Sparse-Data Deep Learning Strategies for Radiographic Non-Destructive Testing

Radiography is an imaging technique used in a variety of applications, such as medical diagnosis, airport security, and nondestructive testing. We present a deep learning system for extracting information from radiographic images. We perform various prediction tasks using our system, including material classification and regression on the dimensions of a given object that is being radiographed. Our system is designed to address the sparse-data issue for radiographic nondestructive testing applications. It uses a radiographic simulation tool for synthetic data augmentation, and it uses transfer learning with a pre-trained convolutional neural network model. Using this system, our preliminary results indicate that the object geometry regression task saw an improvement of 70% in the R-squared value when using a multi-regime model. In addition, we increase the performance of the object material classification tasks by utilizing data from different imaging systems. In particular, using neutron imaging improved the material classification accuracy by 20% when compared to x-ray imaging.

convolutional neural networks↗
DOE OSTI2025

Geothermal well testing pressure prediction by using a hybrid transformer model system: FORGE well use case

Geothermal has huge potential to become an indispensable component in achieving the goal of sustainable energy economy, given its capability to provide consistent baseload power to the electric grid. Injection tests are crucial in geothermal energy system as they naturally help to evaluate reservoir properties, understand fluid flow and even enhance reservoir performance. In this research, we developed a hybrid model system that integrates machine learning (ML) regression, a physics-based mathematical model, and transformer deep learning. Trained and validated using FORGE injection test dataset, this system can forecast the pressure variations both upward and downward over time. The pressure prediction achieved prediction accuracy within 3-6% variance of true pressure values. The system can significantly save time and reduce costs by testing only a few cycles and then using model predictions for further analysis, instead of conducting additional real injection cycle tests. The developed model system also holds promise for designing injection test processes and maintaining well production in geothermal energy. Presented at the IMAGE ‘25 Conference led by Shell.

FORGE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Extreme Temperature Cryptography Based On Nitrogen-Incorporated Ultrananocrystalline Diamond

Physical entropy sources that remain stable under extreme temperatures are essential for cryptography in emerging technological frontiers in deep space exploration, geothermal energy harvesting, and nuclear energy. However, conventional semiconductor platforms fail to generate stable and reliable cryptographic keys above 200 degrees C due to performance degradation. Here, we report a diamond-based cryptographic primitive that exploits the defect-rich sp 2 -bonded grain boundary network in nitrogen-incorporated ultrananocrystalline diamond (n-UNCD) film as a robust entropy source to generate cryptographic keys that remain operationally stable even after enduring extreme temperatures of 700 degrees C for 54 h while also surviving thermal cycling between room temperature and 700 degrees C for 48 h. The strength of the generated keys is assessed through several cryptographic metrics such as bit uniformity, entropy, hamming distances, and correlation coefficients, all of which are found to be near their respective ideal values. Moreover, the generated keys pass the NIST SP 800 and SP 800-90B tests and are also resilient to supply bias variations and a regression-based machine learning attack model based on the Fourier series. The robustness of the keys is attributed to the better thermal stability and chemical inertness of the n-UNCD film. This is supported by high-resolution energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDS), which shows no significant lateral diffusion of metal atoms into the n-UNCD layer, and by Raman spectroscopy, which reveals no significant changes in the bonding configuration of the n-UNCD structure. Our findings highlight the remarkable potential of n-UNCD film for extreme environment cryptography by expanding the operational limits of conventional hardware security platforms.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

wa-hls4ml and lui-gnn: A benchmark and GNN-based surrogate model for hls4ml resource and latency estimation

As machine learning (ML) increasingly serves as a tool for addressing real-time challenges in scientific applications, the development of advanced tooling has significantly reduced the time required to iterate on various designs. These advancements have solved major obstacles, but also exposed new challenges. For example, processes that were not previously considered bottlenecks, such as model synthesis, are now becoming limiting factors in the rapid iteration of designs. To reduce these emerging constraints, multiple efforts are being launched toward designing an ML-based surrogate model that estimates resource usage of synthesized accelerator architectures. This model would reduce the design iteration time, especially when designing within a set of given hardware constraints. This approach shows considerable potential, but as it stands, the effort is early and would benefit from coordination and standardization to assist future work as it emerges. We introduce wa-hls4ml, a benchmark for ML accelerator resource and latency estimation, and its corresponding initial dataset of more than 100,000 fully connected neural networks, all synthesized using hls4ml and targeting Xilinx FPGAs. In addition to the resource utilization and latency data provided, the dataset includes generated artifacts and log files for many of the synthesized neural networks, in order to support future research in ML-based code generation. The benchmark evaluates the performance of resource and latency predictors against several common ML model architectures, primarily originating from scientific domains, as exemplar models, as well as the average performance across a subset of the dataset. We measure the performance of a given predictor model through multiple metrics, including $R^2$ score and SMAPE on regression tasks, as well as inference time to further characterize the estimator under test. Additionally, we introduce the latency/utilization inference graph neural network (lui-gnn), a surrogate model that uses a graph neural network to represent input architectures in the form of a directed graph. This graph representation allows for a diverse set of model architectures to all be effectively handled by a surrogate model. We present the architecture and performance of the model, as evaluated by the new proposed benchmark, including SMAPE, $R^2$ score, and inference times, and find that lui-gnn generally predicts latency and utilization for the 75\% quantile within several percent of the synthesized resources on the synthetic test dataset, indicating that this approach of estimating resource and latency via a surrogate models has promise and warrants further research.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Rapid and high-throughput determination of sorghum ( Sorghum bicolor ) biomass composition using near infrared spectroscopy and chemometrics

Compositional characterization of biomass is vital for the biofuel industry. Traditional wet chemistry-based methods for analyzing biomass composition are laborious, time-consuming, and require extensive use of chemical reagents as well as highly skilled personnel. In this study, near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy was used to quickly assess the composition of above-ground vegetative biomass from 113 diverse, photoperiod-sensitive, biomass-type sorghum (Sorghum bicolor) accessions cultivated under field conditions in Central Illinois. Biomass samples were analyzed using NIR spectra collected in the spectral range of 867–2536 nm, with their chemical compositions determined following the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) protocol. Advanced spectral pre-treatment and band selection techniques were utilized to develop calibration models using partial least squares regression (PLSR). The models’ effectiveness was assessed through cross-validation and independent data tests. The predictions for moisture, ash, extractives, glucan, xylan, acid-soluble lignin (ASL), acid-insoluble lignin (AIL), and total lignin were accurate and reliable, demonstrating the capability of NIR spectroscopy to provide rapid and precise characterization of sorghum biomass. The results demonstrated that NIR spectroscopy is an efficient tool for rapidly characterizing sorghum biomass, making it a sustainable option for screening desirable feedstock for biofuel or bioproduct production.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Physics-Aligned Multi-Domain Machine Learning Framework for Time-Localised Diagnosis of Power Electronics Faults

This paper presents a physics-aligned framework for fault diagnosis in multi-phase power-electronic systems using cycle-synchronous windowing and multi-domain features derived from Fourier, wavelet, and Hilbert–Huang representations. While both logistic regression and multilayer perceptron (MLP) models achieve perfect performance under standard evaluation, blind unseen testing reveals a critical failure in a baseline MLP. This is shown to arise from model selection based on validation accuracy. Using validation-loss-based selection restores correct unseen performance and improves confidence. Feature ablation shows that Fourier and wavelet features dominate, while computational analysis indicates that feature extraction, particularly HHT, governs runtime.

Kumar, Praveen [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000291877857)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Data for Rapid and High-Throughput Determination of Sorghum ( Sorghum bicolor ) Biomass Composition using Near Infrared Spectroscopy and Chemometrics

Compositional characterization of biomass is vital for the biofuel industry. Traditional wet chemistry-based methods for analyzing biomass composition are laborious, time-consuming, and require extensive use of chemical reagents as well as highly skilled personnel. In this study, near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy was used to quickly assess the composition of above-ground vegetative biomass from 113 diverse, photoperiod-sensitive, biomass-type sorghum ( Sorghum bicolor ) accessions cultivated under field conditions in Central Illinois. Biomass samples were analyzed using NIR spectra collected in the spectral range of 867–2536 nm, with their chemical compositions determined following the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) protocol. Advanced spectral pre-treatment and band selection techniques were utilized to develop calibration models using partial least squares regression (PLSR). The models’ effectiveness was assessed through cross-validation and independent data tests. The predictions for moisture, ash, extractives, glucan, xylan, acid-soluble lignin (ASL), acid-insoluble lignin (AIL), and total lignin were accurate and reliable, demonstrating the capability of NIR spectroscopy to provide rapid and precise characterization of sorghum biomass. The results demonstrated that NIR spectroscopy is an efficient tool for rapidly characterizing sorghum biomass, making it a sustainable option for screening desirable feedstock for biofuel or bioproduct production.

Biomass Analytics↗
DOE OSTI2026

An Automated Probabilistic Asteroid Prediscovery Pipeline

We present an automated and probabilistic method to make prediscovery detections of near-Earth asteroids (NEAs) in archival survey images, with the goal of reducing orbital uncertainty immediately after discovery. We refit the Minor Planet Center's astrometry and propagate the full six-parameter covariance to survey epochs to define search regions. We build low-threshold source catalogs for viable images and evaluate every detected source in a search region as a candidate prediscovery. We eliminate false positives by refitting a new orbit to each candidate and probabilistically linking detections across images using a likelihood ratio. Applied to the Zwicky Transient Facility's (ZTF) imaging, we identify approximately 3000 recently discovered NEAs with prediscovery potential, including a doubling of the observational arc for about 500. We use archival ZTF imaging to make prediscovery detections of the potentially hazardous asteroid 2021 DG1, extending its arc by 2.5 yr and reducing future apparition sky plane uncertainty from many degrees to arcseconds. We also recover 2025 FU24 nearly 7 yr before its first known observation, when its sky plane uncertainty covers hundreds of square degrees across thousands of ZTF images. The method is survey agnostic and scalable, enabling rapid orbit refinement for new discoveries from Rubin, NEO Surveyor, and NEOMIR.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Evolution of Randomized Clinical Trial Designs to Assess Therapeutics in Alzheimer Disease

Importance The success of recent randomized clinical trials (RCTs) for Alzheimer disease (AD), particularly those focusing on anti-amyloid therapies, has been discussed at length. However, the evolution of RCT design features for AD that preceded this success remain underexplored. Objective To describe temporal changes in the features of RCT design for interventions in AD. Evidence Review PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science databases were searched in January 2025 for phase 2 and 3 AD RCTs published between January 1992 and December 2024. RCTs that investigated an intervention for AD, with a placebo or standard-of-care control group, were included. Four assessors independently reviewed full-text articles to capture study characteristics. Main Outcomes and Measures The number of participants and the duration of RCTs as well as the target population, outcomes, and funding were extracted from published reports. These features were analyzed with respect to time using linear regression and χ 2 analyses. Results The study included 203 RCTs with 79 589 participants testing interventions in AD. From 1992 to 2024, the mean sample size increased by 464% for phase 2 RCTs (from 42 to 237), and 50% for phase 3 RCTs (from 632 to 951), while the mean trial duration increased by 188% (from 16 to 46 weeks) for phase 2, and 256% (from 20 to 71 weeks) for phase 3 RCTs. This longer duration of RCTs may be partially attributed by a greater share of disease-modifying rather than symptomatic treatments. Similarly, more recent trials required AD biomarker evidence for enrollment (from 1 of 36 [2.7%] before 2006 to 40 of 76 [52.6%] since 2019). A substantial difference in the type of therapeutics researched was observed, with anti-amyloid and anti-tau RCTs being more likely to be funded by the pharmaceutical industry compared with neurotransmitter or other RCTs (anti-amyloid or anti-tau, 68 of 71 [95.8%]; neurotransmitter, 52 of 69 [77.6%]; other, 33 of 52 [63.5%]). RCT transparency improved, with more frequent data accessibility statements, registered reports, and better reporting on race and ethnicity. Conclusions and Relevance This methodology research of AD RCTs highlights substantial changes in key features of AD clinical trials from 1992 to 2024. AD RCTs have become larger and longer, such that they are powered to detect smaller clinical differences. The increased sample sizes and duration should enable the detection of smaller and more slowly occurring outcomes, which may lead to successful RCTs of therapies with slower and more subtle efficacy.

General & Internal Medicine↗