Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “regression to the mean”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 55 records · Page 3

Reflectance spectroscopy of fresh whole leaves for the estimation of chemical concentration

Remotely sensed plant-canopy data in the visible and near-IR ranges are used to establish relations between the canopy reflectance and the chemical content of the leaves. The mathematical relation is generated by means of stepwise regression based on the derivative reflectance at certain wavelengths. Fourier filtering and sample control are used to minimize instrument noise and spectral overlap respectively, and absorption features are noted that correspond to sugar and protein. The coefficients of determination between estimated and measured concentrations are at least 0.82 for such substances as starch and chlorophyll. It is recommended in the analysis of remotly sensed canopy data that the chemicals with strong spectral overlaps with the chemical of interest be accounted for in order to estimate foliar chemical concentrations accurately.

Curran, Paul J.↗

Lithospheric thickness and mantle/lithosphere density contrast beneath Beta Rigio, Venus

The spatial variation of the geoid/topography ratio over the large Venusian volcanic highland Beta Regio is suggestive of thermal compensation, i.e., support of the highland's topography by lithospheric thinning. Both the thickness of the lithosphere and the density contrast at its base can be inferred from a quadratic regression of suitably filtered (600 km less than wavelength less than 4000 km) geoid vs. topography data. The regression yields a mean lithospheric thickness of 270 km and a density contrast of magnitude 2.5% to 3.0%. Simple isostatic balance of the long-wavelength topography at Beta Regio requires thinning of the lithosphere by 50-60% beneath the rise.

Moore, William B.↗

Evaluation of heart rate changes: electrocardiographic versus photoplethysmographic methods

The heart rate (HR) variation to forced deep breathing (HRDB) and to the Valsalva maneuver (Valsalva ratio; VR) are the two most widely used tests of cardiovagal function in human subjects. The HR is derived from a continuously running electrocardiographic (ECG) recording. Recently, HR derived from the arterial waveform became available on the Finapres device (FinapHR), but its ability to detect rapid changes in HR remains uncertain. We therefore evaluated HRDB and VR derived from FinapHR using ECG-derived HR (ECGHR) recordings as the standard. We also compared the averaged HR on Finapres (Finapav) with beat-to-beat Finapres (FinapBB) values. Studies were undertaken in 12 subjects with large HR variations: age, 34.5 +/- 9.3 (SD) years; six males and six females. FinapBB values were superimposable upon ECGHR for both HRDB and VR. In contrast, Finapav failed to follow ECGHR for HRDB and followed HRECG with a lag for the VR. To evaluate statistically how closely FinapHR approximated ECGHR, we undertook regression analysis, using mean values for each subject. To compare the two methods, we evaluated the significance of the difference between test and standard values. For HRDB, FinapBB reproducibly recorded HR (R2 = 0.998), and was significantly (p = 0.001) better than Finapav (R2 = 0.616; p < 0.001). For VR, HRBB generated a VR that was not significantly different from the correct values, while HRav generated a value that was slightly but consistently lower than the correct values (p < 0.001). We conclude that FinapHR reliably records HR variations in the beat-to-beat mode for cardiovascular HR tests.

Non-NASA Center↗

Analysis of a Split-Plot Experimental Design Applied to a Low-Speed Wind Tunnel Investigation

A procedure to analyze a split-plot experimental design featuring two input factors, two levels of randomization, and two error structures in a low-speed wind tunnel investigation of a small-scale model of a fighter airplane configuration is described in this report. Standard commercially-available statistical software was used to analyze the test results obtained in a randomization-restricted environment often encountered in wind tunnel testing. The input factors were differential horizontal stabilizer incidence and the angle of attack. The response variables were the aerodynamic coefficients of lift, drag, and pitching moment. Using split-plot terminology, the whole plot, or difficult-to-change, factor was the differential horizontal stabilizer incidence, and the subplot, or easy-to-change, factor was the angle of attack. The whole plot and subplot factors were both tested at three levels. Degrees of freedom for the whole plot error were provided by replication in the form of three blocks, or replicates, which were intended to simulate three consecutive days of wind tunnel facility operation. The analysis was conducted in three stages, which yielded the estimated mean squares, multiple regression function coefficients, and corresponding tests of significance for all individual terms at the whole plot and subplot levels for the three aerodynamic response variables. The estimated regression functions included main effects and two-factor interaction for the lift coefficient, main effects, two-factor interaction, and quadratic effects for the drag coefficient, and only main effects for the pitching moment coefficient.

Erickson, Gary E.↗

Removal of correlated background in a high-order harmonic transient absorption spectra with principal component regression

We demonstrate a 40x mean noise power reduction (NPR) in core-to-valence extreme ultraviolet (XUV) femtosecond transient absorption spectroscopy with a high harmonic generation (HHG) light source. An adaptive iteratively reweighted principal component regression (airPCR) is used to analyze and suppress spectrally correlated HHG intensity fluctuations. The technique requires significantly less user input and leads to a higher mean NPR than a previously introduced edge-pixel PCR method that relies on the manual identification of signal-free spectral regions. Both techniques are applied in a time-resolved XUV absorption study of the 2 snp 1 P o ( n ≥ 2) autoionizing Rydberg states of helium, demonstrating sub-10 −3 optical density sensitivity.

Faccialà, Davide (ORCID:0000000250720394)↗

The MSFC Solar Activity Future Estimation (MSAFE) Model

The MSAFE model provides forecasts for the solar indices SSN, F10.7, and Ap. These solar indices are used as inputs to space environment models used in orbital spacecraft operations and space mission analysis. Forecasts from the MSAFE model are provided on the MSFC Natural Environments Branch's solar web page and are updated as new monthly observations become available. The MSAFE prediction routine employs a statistical technique that calculates deviations of past solar cycles from the mean cycle and performs a regression analysis to calculate the deviation from the mean cycle of the solar index at the next future time interval. The forecasts are initiated for a given cycle after about 8 to 9 monthly observations from the start of the cycle are collected. A forecast made at the beginning of cycle 24 using the MSAFE program captured the cycle fairly well with some difficulty in discerning the double peak that occurred at solar cycle maximum.

Suggs, Ron↗

The MSFC Solar Activity Future Estimation (MSAFE) Model

The MSAFE model provides forecasts for the solar indices SSN, F10.7, and Ap. These solar indices are used as inputs to many space environment models used in orbital spacecraft operations and space mission analysis. Forecasts from the MSAFE model are provided on the MSFC Natural Environments Branch's solar webpage and are updated as new monthly observations come available. The MSAFE prediction routine employs a statistical technique that calculates deviations of past solar cycles from the mean cycle and performs a regression analysis to predict the deviation from the mean cycle of the solar index at the next future time interval. The prediction algorithm is applied recursively to produce monthly smoothed solar index values for the remaining of the cycle. The forecasts are initiated for a given cycle after about 8 to 12 months of observations are collected. A forecast made at the beginning of cycle 24 using the MSAFE program captured the cycle fairly well with some difficulty in discerning the double peak that occurred at solar cycle maximum.

Suggs, Ronnie J.↗

Satellite/radiosonde comparison

Collocated measurements of radiosonde and TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS) data are compared to determine whether significant latitudinal, seasonal, or instrumental biases exist. Long-wave structure determined by each system is being examined for correlation. Because U.S. radiosonde data are archived uncorrected, an effort to correct the measurements is being considered. These corrections will be applied to 7 years of measurements. New comparisons will then be made using corrected radiosonde and TOVS data. A regression method is used to retrieve temperatures, and radiosonde zonal means are used to update the regression coefficients. Preliminary results of auto-correlation analysis indicate that detection of long-wave structure in each set of data is slightly different with some levels and locations experiencing different wave periods or amplitudes. Scatter diagrams and linear regression for each layer show bias in the mean temperatures. Winter-time measurements show poorer correlations due to noisy measurements.

Schmidlin, F. J.↗

In Silico Prediction of the Toxicity of Nitroaromatic Compounds: Application of Ensemble Learning QSAR Approach

In this work, a dataset of more than 200 nitroaromatic compounds is used to develop Quantitative Structure–Activity Relationship (QSAR) models for the estimation of in vivo toxicity based on 50% lethal dose to rats (LD 50 ). An initial set of 4885 molecular descriptors was generated and applied to build Support Vector Regression (SVR) models. The best two SVR models, SVR_A and SVR_B, were selected to build an Ensemble Model by means of Multiple Linear Regression (MLR). The obtained Ensemble Model showed improved performance over the base SVR models in the training set (R 2 = 0.88), validation set (R 2 = 0.95), and true external test set (R 2 = 0.92). The models were also internally validated by 5-fold cross-validation and Y-scrambling experiments, showing that the models have high levels of goodness-of-fit, robustness and predictivity. The contribution of descriptors to the toxicity in the models was assessed using the Accumulated Local Effect (ALE) technique. The proposed approach provides an important tool to assess toxicity of nitroaromatic compounds, based on the ensemble QSAR model and the structural relationship to toxicity by analyzed contribution of the involved descriptors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Data-Driven Mean-Corrected Recursive Estimation-Based Optimal DER Dispatch for Distribution System Voltage Control

Recent advances in smart inverters offer opportunities to mitigate adverse grid impacts caused by high penetrations of distributed photovoltaics (PV) in distribution grids, such as voltage violations. Here, this paper proposes a novel measurement-driven optimal power flow (OPF)-based distributed energy resource management system (DERMS) voltage regulation via recursive sensitivity estimation informed coordinated control of distributed PV inverters. The proposed approach leverages available grid and controllable DER measurements, eliminating reliance on system model information while being adaptive and robust to volatile operating conditions. A mean-corrected recursive ridge regression (MCRRR) algorithm is proposed for sensitivity estimation, continuously refining the sensitivity model through a closed-form solution. It effectively manages varying grid operating conditions, such as changes in power injections and topology reconfiguration, to facilitate a time-varying update of the Load Sensitivity Factors (LSF). The proposed approach is formulated as a linear programming (LP) problem and is thus scalable to larger-scale distribution systems. Its effectiveness and efficiency are demonstrated on a realistic distribution feeder with high PV penetrations in Southern California, USA.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Global Total Ozone Recovery Trends Attributed to Ozone-Depleting Substance (ODS) Changes Derived From Five Merged Ozone Datasets

We report on updated trends using different merged zonal mean total ozone datasets from satellite and ground-based observations for the period from 1979 to 2020. This work is an update of the trends reported in Weber et al. (2018) using the same datasets up to 2016. Merged datasets used in this study include NASA MOD v8.7 and NOAA Cohesive Data (COH) v8.6, both based on data from the series of Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV), SBUV-2, and Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite (OMPS) satellite instruments (1978–present), as well as the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME)-type Total Ozone – Essential Climate Variable (GTO-ECV) and GOME-SCIAMACHY-GOME-2 (GSG) merged datasets (both 1995–present), mainly comprising satellite data from GOME, SCIAMACHY, OMI, GOME-2A, GOME-2B, and TROPOMI. The fifth dataset consists of the annual mean zonal mean data from ground-based measurements collected at the World Ozone and Ultraviolet Radiation Data Centre (WOUDC). Trends were determined by applying a multiple linear regression (MLR) to annual mean zonal mean data. The addition of 4 more years consolidated the fact that total ozone is indeed slowly recovering in both hemispheres as a result of phasing out ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) as mandated by the Montreal Protocol. The near-global (60° S–60° N) ODS-related ozone trend of the median of all datasets after 1995 was 0.4 ± 0.2 (2σ) %/decade, which is roughly a third of the decreasing rate of 1.5 ± 0.6 %/decade from 1978 until 1995. The ratio of decline and increase is nearly identical to that of the EESC (equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine or stratospheric halogen) change rates before and after 1995, confirming the success of the Montreal Protocol. The observed total ozone time series are also in very good agreement with the median of 17 chemistry climate models from CCMI-1 (Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative Phase 1) with current ODS and GHG (greenhouse gas) scenarios (REF-C2 scenario). The positive ODS-related trends in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) after 1995 are only obtained with a sufficient number of terms in the MLR accounting properly for dynamical ozone changes (Brewer–Dobson circulation, Arctic Oscillation (AO), and Antarctic Oscillation (AAO)). A standard MLR (limited to solar, Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), volcanic, and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)) leads to zero trends, showing that the small positive ODS-related trends have been balanced by negative trend contributions from atmospheric dynamics, resulting in nearly constant total ozone levels since 2000.

Total Column Ozone Trends↗

Performance Metrics for the Assessment of Satellite Data Products: An Ocean Color Case Study

Performance assessment of ocean color satellite data has generally relied on statistical metrics chosen for their common usage and the rationale for selecting certain metrics is infrequently explained. Commonly reported statistics based on mean squared errors, such as the coefficient of determination (r2), root mean square error, and regression slopes, are most appropriate for Gaussian distributions without outliers and, therefore, are often not ideal for ocean color algorithm performance assessment, which is often limited by sample availability. In contrast, metrics based on simple deviations, such as bias and mean absolute error, as well as pair-wise comparisons, often provide more robust and straightforward quantities for evaluating ocean color algorithms with non-Gaussian distributions and outliers. This study uses a SeaWiFS chlorophyll-a validation data set to demonstrate a framework for satellite data product assessment and recommends a multimetric and user-dependent approach that can be applied within science, modeling, and resource management communities.

remote sensing↗

Active- and transfer-learning applied to microscale-macroscale coupling to simulate viscoelastic flows

Active- and transfer-learning are applied to microscale dynamics of polymer flows for the multiscale discovery of effective constitutive approximations required in viscoelastic flow simulation. The result is macroscopic rheology directly connected to a microstructural model. Micro and macroscale simulations are adaptively coupled by means of Gaussian process regression (GPR) to run the expensive microscale computations only as necessary. This multiscale method is demonstrated with flows of a polymer solution as a model system. At the microscale level dissipative particle dynamics (DPD) is employed to model the fluid as a suspension of bead-spring micro-structures subjected to steady shear flow. The results yield the non-Newtonian viscosity and the first normal stress difference at strain rates as training data used in a GPR model. DPD parameters are calibrated with respect to experimental data for a real polymer solution. Compliance with these data requires adjustment of the DPD model's cutoff radius, which then becomes a function of the second invariant of the strain rate tensor. The FENE-P model is chosen for the macroscale description using the spectral element method (SEM) to simulate channel flow and flow past a circular cylinder. The DPD results at the lowest possible shear strain rate yield an estimate of the zero-shear rate viscosity, which allows the initiation of the macroscale flow by SEM as a Newtonian fluid. The resulting strain-rate field is surveyed to determine additional shear strain rate sampling points for the DPD system. This new information allows an initial fitting of parameters of the constitutive equation followed by new SEM simulations at the macroscale. Additionally, guided by active-learning GPR to select new sampling points, this process continues until convergence is achieved. The effectiveness of this new simulation paradigm for viscoelastic flows is tested with different macroscale operating conditions. The effective closure learned in the channel simulation is then transferred directly to the flow past a circular cylinder at low Reynolds number, where the results show that only two additional DPD simulations are required to achieve a satisfactory constitutive model. With an increase of the Reynolds number, the active-learning scheme automatically detects the inaccuracy of the learned constitutive model, and initiates additional DPD simulations for the extra data needed to once again close the microscale-macroscale coupled system. This new paradigm of active- and transfer-learning for multiscale modeling is readily applicable to other microscale-macroscale coupled simulations of complex fluids and other materials. Furthermore, the coupling between microscale and macroscale solvers can be seamlessly implemented with our open source multiscale universal interface (MUI) library.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Echocardiographic measurements of left ventricular mass by a non-geometric method

The accuracy of a new nongeometric method for calculating left ventricular myocardial volumes from two-dimensional echocardiographic images was assessed in vitro using 20 formalin-fixed normal human hearts. Serial oblique short-axis images were acquired from one point at 5-deg intervals, for a total of 10-12 cross sections. Echocardiographic myocardial volumes were calculated as the difference between the volumes defined by the epi- and endocardial surfaces. Actual myocardial volumes were determined by water displacement. Volumes ranged from 80 to 174 ml (mean 130.8 ml). Linear regression analysis demonstrated excellent agreement between the echocardiographic and direct measurements.

Parra, Beatriz↗

On the distribution of pitch angles in external galactic spirals NGC 1232 and NGC 5457

A numerical method, originally developed to analyze the morphology of global and local structure in prototype galaxies, is modified for analyzing observed disk-shape galaxies. Two digitized spiral galaxies NGC 1232 and NGC 5457 with varying degrees of contrast between arm and interarm regions are analyzed. A synergism of partitioning methods and a geometric mean least-squares regression algorithm serves to isolate local arm segments, spurs, feathers, and secondary features and to measure their pitch angles and lengths. The global arms are actually highly disjointed, with arm segments frequently revealing pitch angles between 30 and 50 deg, certainly greater than those of the parent arms. Prominent spurs tend to exhibit a much greater pitch angle. The automated mathematical algorithm is shown to have negligible numerical biasing and could be applied to any number of spiral galaxies manifesting flocculent structure, either prototype or observed, and could possibly be used as a tool for classification of multiple-armed-type galaxies.

Russell, William S.↗

Atmospheric moisture fields derived by satellite observations over the tropical Pacific Ocean

Values of precipitable water are retrieved over the tropical and subtropical Pacific Ocean from TOVS infrared and microwave channel brightness temperature and OLR observations by means of stepwise linear regression. The most useful temperature and moisture sensing channels are pre-selected from sensitivity tests of a radiative transfer model. Numerous models are developed and tested against collocated radiosonde observations and Nimbus-7 SMMR precipitable water estimates. For RAOB comparisons, the best estimator used 15 TOVS predictors and captured 71.1 deg percent of the variance (+0.62 g/sq cm standard error) for column precipitable water; for precipitable water of 700-500 mb bulk layer, these values were 71.7 percent and +/- 0.17 g/sq cm. Little skill of estimated precipitable water was obtained for moisture above 500 mb. Regressions were less skillful against SMMR, unless collocation parameters were tightly controlled; SMMR was less acceptable than RAOB's because of observational drift and errors. Generally, the most skillful predictors were boundary layer brightness temperatures of TOVS channels and satellite estimated stability indices. 'Moisture channels' were hardly useful except for estimating middle and upper tropospheric moisture. Additional regression models were constructed testing the sensitivity to different observational and meteorological characteristics. Models which used some in situ observations surface observations or stabilities calculated from RAOB, were the most successful. The best of these explained 87.5 percent of the variance but the regression selected almost no TOVS channels, relying instead on conventional RAOB and surface observations. A set of four regression models were developed, stratifying atmospheric characteristics on the basis of collocated OLR values. These models improved the variance explained by 5.0 percent; the model associated with the highest OLR values (275 W/sq m less than or equal to OLR; that is, no cloud) showed only marginal skill. Precipitable water fields were generated from the best TOVS-only model for seven days in January 1983 and compared with SMMR-estimated fields. OLR fields and ECMWF precipitable water analysis. The TOVS regression model compared favorably to the SMMR analysis in amplitudes and features. It revealed more evolving synoptic signal than the ECMWF analysis. In synoptically active regions, it differed with respect to the OLR analysis, primarily because of actual differences in the vertical distribution of water vapor.

Chung, Hyosang↗

Precision Interval Estimation of the Response Surface by Means of an Integrated Algorithm of Neural Network and Linear Regression

The integration of Radial Basis Function Networks and Back Propagation Neural Networks with the Multiple Linear Regression has been accomplished to map nonlinear response surfaces over a wide range of independent variables in the process of the Modem Design of Experiments. The integrated method is capable to estimate the precision intervals including confidence and predicted intervals. The power of the innovative method has been demonstrated by applying to a set of wind tunnel test data in construction of response surface and estimation of precision interval.

Lo, Ching F.↗

Total Ozone Trends from 1979 to 2016 Derived from Five Merged Observational Datasets - The Emergence into Ozone Recovery

We report on updated trends using different merged datasets from satellite and ground-based observations for the period from 1979 to 2016. Trends were determined by applying a multiple linear regression (MLR) to annual mean zonal mean data. Merged datasets used here include NASA MOD v8.6 and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) merge v8.6, both based on data from the series of Solar Backscatter UltraViolet (SBUV) and SBUV-2 satellite instruments (1978–present) as well as the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME)-type Total Ozone (GTO) and GOME-SCIAMACHY-GOME-2 (GSG) merged datasets (1995-present), mainly comprising satellite data from GOME, the Scanning Imaging Absorption Spectrometer for Atmospheric Chartography (SCIAMACHY), and GOME-2A. The fifth dataset consists of the monthly mean zonal mean data from ground-based measurements collected at World Ozone and UV Data Center (WOUDC). The addition of four more years of data since the last World Meteorological Organization (WMO) ozone assessment (2013-2016) shows that for most datasets and regions the trends since the stratospheric halogen reached its maximum (approximately 1996 globally and approximately 2000 in polar regions) are mostly not significantly different from zero. However, for some latitudes, in particular the Southern Hemisphere extratropics and Northern Hemisphere subtropics, several datasets show small positive trends of slightly below +1 percent decade(exp. -1) that are barely statistically significant at the 2 Sigma uncertainty level. In the tropics, only two datasets show significant trends of +0.5 to +0.8 percent(exp.-1), while the others show near-zero trends. Positive trends since 2000 have been observed over Antarctica in September, but near-zero trends are found in October as well as in March over the Arctic. Uncertainties due to possible drifts between the datasets, from the merging procedure used to combine satellite datasets and related to the low sampling of ground-based data, are not accounted for in the trend analysis. Consequently, the retrieved trends can be only considered to be at the brink of becoming significant, but there are indications that we are about to emerge into the expected recovery phase. However, the recent trends are still considerably masked by the observed large year-to-year dynamical variability in total ozone.

column ozone trends↗