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DOE OSTI2021

Assessing the predictive impact of factor fixing with an adaptive uncertainty-based approach .

Despite widespread use of factor fixing in environmental modeling, its effect on model predictions has received little attention and is instead commonly presumed to be negligible. We propose a proof-of-concept adaptive method for systematically investigating the impact of factor fixing. The method uses Global Sensitivity Analysis methods to identify groups of sensitive parameters, then quantifies which groups can be safely fixed at nominal values without exceeding a maximum acceptable error, demonstrated using the 21-dimensional Sobol’ G-function. Furthermore, three error measures are considered for quantities of interest, namely Relative Mean Absolute Error, Pearson Product-Moment Correlation and Relative Variance. Results demonstrate that factor fixing may cause large errors in the model results unexpectedly, when preliminary analysis suggests otherwise, and that the default value selected affects the number of factors to fix. To improve the applicability and methodological development of factor fixing, a new research agenda encompassing five opportunities is discussed for further attention.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Using Mobile Charging Drones to Mitigate Battery Disruptions of Electric Vehicles on Highways

Our research explores innovative solutions to address the challenge of battery disruptions in electric vehicles (EVs) on highways. We propose a centralized fleet ownership model where a company manages a fleet of Mobile Charging Drones (MCDs) guided by a k-VRP (Vehicle Routing Problem) framework. This model is designed to tackle a multi-objective optimization issue with three primary goals: reduction of the overall operating costs, decrease in the cumulative waiting time, and minimization of the combined operating costs and waiting times. This approach extends beyond the usual VRP constraints, encompassing specific limitations for both MCDs and disrupted EVs (DEVs). Additionally, our study delves into the concept of decentralized fleet ownership through the lens of crowdsourcing. Preliminary numerical analyses indicate that the capital cost of MCDs is a significant factor on the charging service, and the system performance is sensitive to DEV owner's value of time (VOT) when VOTs are relatively low.

battery disruption↗

DOE OSTI2022

Geothermal Fault Zone and Fluid Imaging through Joint Airborne ZTEM and Ground MT Data Inversion Analysis

This project has aimed to achieve detailed electrical resistivity resolution at geothermal reservoir scales by combining airborne natural electromagnetic (EM) field surveying (ZTEM) with ground magnetotelluric (MT) measurements to approximate an airborne MT geophysical method. MT alone is relatively expensive and may have permitting challenges in sensitive areas. Airborne ZTEM field data contains only the magnetic field, requires a background assumption, and has been limited to relatively high frequencies, thus suffering uniqueness problems. Based on proto-type 2D simulations, ZTEM ambiguities may be reduced through formal incorporation with possibly sparse ground MT soundings, which we pursued in full 3D for this project. The methodology was tested at the high-temperature Roosevelt Hot Springs geothermal system, Utah, which was considered advantageous given the near total exposure of crystalline reservoir rocks across the project area. ZTEM and ground MT survey data were acquired in 2017, subcontracted to outside parties with which we have worked in the past. These included 80 remote-referenced tensor MT soundings over the Mineral Mountains and adjacent Roosevelt Hot Spring producing geothermal system. These MT stations abut later coverage of a similar number of MT stations taken for the Utah FORGE project providing excellent total data aperture to re-solve structure beneath both project areas better than either set alone. The airborne ZTEM survey covered 704 line kilometers in E-W flight lines with a 250 m line spacing. Although this survey was timed during a maintenance-related shutdown of power production at the Roosevelt Hot Springs, other noise sources difficult to identify but including two high-voltage state-scale transmission lines compromised the ZTEM survey badly leading to unusable responses. Thus, with DOE management concurrence, the project proceeded to emphasize inversion and interpretation of the joint SubTER-FORGE MT data sets with regard to the Roosevelt Hot Springs reservoir recharge and to deep heat sources for both it and the Utah FORGE EGS project area. We also investigated the joint ZTEM-MT sampling concept with data sets from the Eleven Mile Canyon prospect area donated by the U.S. Navy (A. Sabin, PoC). Inversion of the SubTER-FORGE MT data using the HexMT 3D finite element algorithm reveals a large, low-resistivity anomaly extending sub-vertically through the depth range of the crust beneath the western Mineral Mountains. The steep conductive zone connects in the lower crust to a more tabular conductor characteristic of much of the Great Basin that generally is ascribed to current mafic magmatic underplating, hybridization and fluid release. The location of the resolved anomaly relative to the recent (0.5-0.8 Ma) eruptive centers of the Mineral Mountains implicates it as remnants of the magma body which fed these centers. This structure appears to be currently feeding heat and fluids upward into the Roosevelt Hot Springs hydrothermal system, as well as heat laterally to the FORGE project area. Separate and joint inversion models were carried out for the donated Eleven Mile Canyon MT-ZTEM data set to demonstrate concept. ZTEM only inversion showed two main alteration zones in the western portion of the project area known from geological mapping. Joint inversion including an E-W profile of MT soundings sharpened these features considerably. It also resolved in much greater detail the graben related normal faulting structure of the central project area which lies at depths exceeding the sensitivity of ZTEM alone. The sparse number of MT da-ta relative to the ZTEM required upweighting the former by a factor of several, but an exact procedure awaits future research. Our final impression is that sparse MT data can improve resolution of the subsurface over that of ZTEM alone. However, well sampled MT data are to be preferred and offer the simplicity of interpreting just one data type, and possess the superior resolution capability coming with the electric field everywhere, and from their high bandwidth.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Wastewater reuse benefits for municipal complete retention lagoons: Life cycle assessment and dynamic modeling

Complete retention lagoons with wastewater reuse for agricultural purposes may offer sustainability advantages over alternative systems for small communities in semiarid regions. This study quantifies the environmental life cycle impact of adopting agriculture water reuse systems using case study data to estimate operating and building infrastructure impacts and spatial–temporal modeling to quantify resource trade-offs. Water reuse system benefits are highly dependent on supply–storage–demand dynamics. The relative size of irrigated agricultural land to the lagoon size was the most significant factor influencing site water application rates. The benefits are sensitive to changes in air emissions occurring from the agricultural land and further emphasize the importance of proper fertilizer management when adopting water reuse systems. Wastewater reuse from complete retention lagoons reduce life cycle GHG emissions, primarily through excavation reductions, offset fertilizer use, and especially from increased crop yields from wastewater reuse at previously rainfed sites.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

A Unified Scaling Framework for Comparative Analysis of Major Electrical Machine Topologies

This paper presents a unified framework for comparing major electrical machine topologies under identical output and thermal constraints, with emphasis on supply-chain-aware selection among rare-earth-intensive, reduced-rare-earth, and rare-earth-free solutions. Using power factor and air-gap flux density as the principal descriptors, the framework links topology choice to relative size, copper demand, magnet dependence, cost sensitivity, and inertia. To support robust early-stage screening, the deterministic scaling model is combined with uncertainty representation, Monte Carlo scenario propagation, and hesitationaware ranking. The results show that rare-earth-rich machines remain compact and dense, whereas reduced-rare-earth and rare-earth-free alternatives become more attractive under specific material-risk and cost scenarios.

Kumar, Praveen [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000291877857)↗

DOE OSTI2021

Hidden Markov Model: a shortest unique representative approach to detect the protein toxins, virulence factors and antibiotic resistance genes

Objective: Currently, next generation sequencing (NGS) is widely used to decode potential novel or variant pathogens both in emergent outbreaks and in routine clinical practice. However, the efficient identification of novel or diverged pathogenomic compositions remains a big challenge. It is especially true for short DNA sequence fragments from NGS, since sequence similarity searching is vulnerable to false negatives or false positives, as is mismatching or matching with unrelated proteins. Therefore, this study aimed to establish a bioinformatics approach that can generate unique motif sequences for profiling searching, resulting in high specificity and sensitivity. Results: In this study, we introduced a Shortest Unique Representative Hidden Markov Model (HMM) approach to identify bacterial toxin, virulence factor (VF), and antimicrobial resistance (AR) in short sequence reads. We first construct unique representative domain sequences of toxin genes, VFs, and ARs to avoid potential false positives, and then to use HMM models to accurately identify potential toxin, VF, and AR fragments. The benchmark shows this approach can achieve relatively high specificity and sensitivity if the appropriate cutoff value is applied. Our approach can be used to recognize the protein sequences of known toxins and pathogens, identifies their common characteristics and then searches for similar sequences in other organisms.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Sensitivity of a Subject-specific Ankle Sprain Simulation to Extrinsic Versus Intrinsic Biomechanical Factors

Ankle sprains are the most common musculoskeletal injury in sport and military activity, despite existing prophylactic strategies. The purpose of this report was to develop a probabilistic simulation of lateral ankle sprains during single-limb drop landing, towards accelerating innovation in ankle sprain prevention. A deterministic, subject-specific musculoskeletal model was extended with automation and probabilistic distributions on sprain-related biomechanical factors. Probabilistic simulations were generated using traditional Monte Carlo techniques and the advanced mean value method, a more computationally-efficient approach. Predicted distributions of peak ankle joint rotations, velocities, and moments borne by supporting passive structures agreed favorably with the deterministic model and with reports of real sprain biomechanics. Parameter sensitivities identified that predictions were most strongly influenced by drop height, subtalar joint posture at contact, invertor/evertor co-activation, and passive ankle stiffness. The advanced mean value method predicted confidence bounds comparable to a 1000-trial Monte Carlo simulation, and required only 14 model evaluations and 4-min processing time. The extended probabilistic simulation may be useful to virtually test new prophylactic strategies for ankle sprains, and is made available for open-source use (https://simtk.org/projects/sprain-sim).

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Search for two-neutrino double-beta decay of 136 Xe to the $0$$^{+}_{1}$ excited state of 136 Ba with the complete EXO-200 dataset*

A new search for two-neutrino double-beta (2νββ) decay of 136 Xe to the $0$$^{+}_{1}$ excited state of 136 Ba is performed with the full EXO-200 dataset. A deep learning-based convolutional neural network is used to discriminate signal from background events. Signal detection efficiency is increased relative to previous searches by EXO-200 by more than a factor of two. With the addition of the Phase II dataset taken with an upgraded detector, the median 90% confidence level half-life sensitivity of 2νββ decay to the $0$$^{+}_{1}$ state of 136 Ba is 2.9 x 10 24 yr using a total 136 Xe exposure of 234.1 kg yr. Furthermore, no statistically significant evidence for 2νββ decay to the $0$$^{+}_{1}$ state is observed, leading to a lower limit of $T$$^{2v}_{1/2}$(0 + → $0$$^{+}_{1}$) > 1.4 x 10 24 yr at 90% confidence level, improved by 70% relative to the current world's best constraint.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Eight decades of research on the long-term health effects of radiation in atomic bomb survivors and their offspring

Abstract This year marks the 80th anniversary of the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Over the past eight decades, large-scale cohort studies of atomic bomb survivors and their offspring conducted by the Radiation Effects Research Foundation and its predecessor, the Atomic Bomb Casualty Commission, have provided critical insights into the long-term health effects of radiation exposure. Key findings include early identification of radiation-associated leukemia, as well as excess risks of all solid cancers combined, and most individual cancer sites. Observed radiation dose–response relationships have generally followed a linear-quadratic model for leukemia and a linear model for all solid cancers. Recent findings indicating possible upward curvature in the dose–response for all solid cancers may reflect underlying heterogeneity in factors related to individual cancer sites and should be explored further. Generally, younger age at exposure, lower attained age, and female sex appear to show greater radiation sensitivity for all solid cancers combined but results differ by individual cancer site. Recent studies have also identified potential radiation-related excesses for non-cancer diseases such as cataracts, various circulatory diseases, and others. Studies of heritable effects on the offspring of exposed atomic bomb survivors, in contrast, have shown no elevated risk to date in offspring from parental radiation exposure, either at the molecular or disease level. With the cooperation of the atomic bomb survivors and their families, Radiation Effects Research Foundation’s research will continue to play a crucial role in informing the health of survivors, their families, and global radiation protection in the decades to come.

Oncology↗

DOE OSTI2021

Neutron-neutron scattering length from the 6 He(p,pα)nn reaction

We propose a novel method to measure the neutron-neutron scattering length using the 6 He(p,pα)nn reaction in inverse kinematics at high energies. The method is based on the final-state interaction (FSI) between the neutrons after the sudden knockout of the α particle. We show that the details of the neutron-neutron relative-energy distribution allow for a precise extraction of the s-wave scattering length. Here, we present the state of the art in regard to the theory of this distribution. The distribution is calculated in two steps. First, we calculate the ground-state wave function of 6 He as a αnn three-body system. For this purpose we use Halo effective field theory, which also provides uncertainty estimates for the results. We compare our results at this stage to model calculations done with the computer code face. In a second step we determine the effects of the nn FSI using the nn t-matrix. We compare these FSI results to approximate FSI approaches based on standard FSI enhancement factors. While the final distribution is sensitive to the nn scattering length, it depends only weakly on the effective range. Throughout we emphasize the impact of theoretical uncertainties on the neutron-neutron relative-energy distribution, and discuss the extent to which those uncertainties limit the extraction of the neutron-neutron scattering length from the reaction 6 He(p,pα)nn.

6 ≤ A ≤ 19↗

DOE OSTI2021

An Overview of Non-LWR Vessel Cooling Systems for Passive Decay Heat Removal (Technical Letter Final Report)

The following report provides a technical review of various reactor vessel cooling system (VCS) concepts under consideration for decay heat removal (DHR) in non-light water advanced reactor designs. This review focuses on ex-vessel designs, including the Reactor Cavity Cooling System (RCCS), the Reactor Vessel Auxiliary Cooling System (RVACS), and hybrid iterations, using both air and water cooling to achieve their heat removal function. Based on a literature review of publicly available sources published between 1979 and 2021, a technical summary is presented detailing existing and planned VCS design options, their applicability to specific reactor type, and review of authored research and development studies. Following an assessment of the availability of data and modeling tools, an evaluation was performed analyzing their likely performance during normal, degraded, and accident conditions, including reliability, stability, and longevity. With renewed consideration of air-based DHR systems by some US vendors, there is a need to fully understand the complexities inherent to natural circulation systems, and more importantly, how they may influence safety-related heat removal functions and system performance. For DHR systems that rely on air-based mode of cooling, this entails quantification of the impacts of low flow conditions during start-up, relative elevations of inlet and outlet ducts for below-grade installations, effects of the use of multiple parallel chimneys for redundancy, and impact of weather conditions at the plant site. For systems relying on water-based mode cooling, reliance on limited coolant inventory in an event of pipe break or extended duration accident scenarios, sensitivities related to stability of boiling flow and heat transfer conditions, and quantification of full-scale structural vibrations on balance of plant structures are among the complicating factors.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2025

A heat and mass transfer model for evaluation of damaged cesium chloride radiological sources

Radiological sources are vital to many applications, and typically contain byproducts from waste streams which decay over time to form complex mixtures of elements. Daughter products resulting from these decay processes can introduce complicating factors to the integrity and safety of the vessel that contains the radiological material. Sources containing cesium 137 ( 137 Cs) are of particular interest, because the decay of this isotope produces barium metal which reacts readily and exothermically with oxygen. This work employs physics-based numerical tools to examine the thermal response of a radiological source containing a mixture of cesium and barium in the event that vessel walls are damaged and atmospheric gases contact source material. A parametric study was conducted to determine the sensitivity of the response to various factors, including vessel geometry, source material age, the degree of vessel damage, and other parameters. Here, it was found that the peak temperatures that occurred within the source material strongly depend on these parameters, particularly vessel geometry and age, which determine whether a breach would be a relatively minor accident or a catastrophic incident. Finally, the model’s sensitivity to uncertain thermophysical properties is discussed.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating the Impacts of Autonomous Electric Vehicles Adoption on Vehicle Miles Traveled and CO2 Emissions

Autonomous electric vehicles (AEVs) can potentially revolutionize the transportation landscape, offering a safer, contact-free, easily accessible, and more eco-friendly mode of travel. Prior to the market uptake of AEVs, it is critical to understand the consumer segments that are most likely to adopt these vehicles. Beyond market adoption, it is also important to quantify the impact of AEVs on broader transportation systems and the environment, such as impacts on the annual vehicle miles traveled (VMT) and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In this pilot study, using survey data, a statistical model correlating AEV adoption intention and socioeconomic and built environment attributes was estimated, and a sensitivity analysis was conducted to understand the importance of factors impacting AEV adoption. We found that the market segments range from early adopters who are wealthy, technologically savvy, and relatively young to non-adopters who are more cautious to new technologies. This is followed by a synthetic population microsimulation of market penetration for the San Francisco Bay Area. With five household vehicle replacement scenarios, we assessed the annual VMT and tailpipe carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions change associated with vehicle replacement. It is found that adopting AEVs can potentially reduce more than 5 megatons of CO2 yearly, which is approximately 30% of the total CO2 emitted by internal combustion engine (ICE) cars in the region.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Sensitivity analysis towards trace-uranium detection with γ-γ coincidence NAA

An improved approach for detection of trace amounts of 238 U by means of neutron activation analysis (NAA) is presented. The analysis enhancement is obtained by utilizing γ-γ coincidence counting. An empirical method for evaluating the sensitivity gain in the presence of a large source-related background is presented. A comparison of detection limits is made between two counting schemes; namely, counting single gammas using one HPGe detector versus counting coincident gammas using two HPGe detectors placed face-to-face. Furthermore, a data-validated radiation transport model, created in GEANT4 for a single HPGe detector, is extended to handle the two detector setup. In this counting scheme, a 238 U-detection sensitivity enhancement of about a factor of 8 is predicted for a sample of Saint-Gobain G3 Sapphire when compared to the simpler singles counting approach.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2021

Flavoured axions in the tail of B q → μ+μ- and B → γ* form factors

We discuss how LHC di-muon data collected to study B q → μμ can be used to constrain light particles with flavour-violating couplings to b -quarks. Focussing on the case of a flavoured QCD axion, a , we compute the decay rates for B q → μμa and the SM background process B q → μμγ near the kinematic endpoint. These rates depend on non-perturbative B q → γ (*) form factors with on- or off-shell photons. The off-shell form factors — relevant for generic searches for beyond-the-SM particles — are discussed in full generality and computed with QCD sum rules for the first time. This includes an extension to the low-lying resonance region using a multiple subtracted dispersion relation. With these results, we analyse available LHCb data to obtain the sensitivity on B q → μμa at present and future runs. We find that the full LHCb dataset alone will allow to probe axion-coupling scales of the order of 10 6 GeV for both b → d and b → s transitions. As a spin-off application of the off-shell form factors we further analyse the case of light, Beyond the Standard Model, vectors.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Challenges and Lessons Learned in Applying Sensitivity Analysis to Building Stock Energy Models

Uncertainty Analysis (UA) and Sensitivity Analysis (SA) offer essential tools to determine the limits of inference of a model and explore the factors which have the most effect on the model outputs. However, despite a well established body of work applying UA and SA to models of individual buildings, a review of the literature relating to energy models for larger groups of buildings undertaken by Fennell et al. (2019) highlighted very limited application at larger scales. This contribution describes the efforts undertaken by a group of research teams in the context of IEA-EBC Annex 70 working with a diverse set of Building Stock Models (BSMs) to apply global sensitivity analysis methods and compare their results. Since BSMs are a class of model defined by their output and coverage rather than their structure and inputs, they represent a diverse set of modelling approaches. Key challenges for the application of SA are identified and explored, including the influence of model form, input data types and model outputs. This study combines results from 7 different modelling teams, each using different models across a range of urban areas to explore these challenges and begin the process of developing standardised workflows for SA of BSMs.

ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION↗

DOE OSTI2021

The Impacts of Distinct Flexibility Enhancements on the Value and Dynamics of Natural Gas Power Plant Operations

The rapid increase of renewable generation and its anticipated continued growth requires greater operational flexibility in modern power systems. Previous studies explored the addition of more flexible resources to improve system flexibility, but this may also be achieved at lower cost by enhancing existing power plants via flexibility retrofits. Potential flexibility upgrades to existing thermal plants include modifications that enable faster ramp rates, increase maximum load levels, decrease minimum load levels, and provide faster and lower cost startup operations. In this paper, we focus on improvements to existing natural gas combined cycle generators, and apply a unit commitment model to analyze the impact that each specific upgrade has on their operational dynamics and profitability from both the system perspective and from the asset owner perspective. We show that the value of each type of flexibility improvement varies depending on the capacity factor and usage pattern of the generator before the upgrade, and that the relative benefit of each type of flexibility varies. We demonstrate diminishing returns to increased flexibility when upgrading multiple generators simultaneously. Sensitivity tests for several shares of renewable generation, different generation mixes and different net load realizations confirm the generality of the results shown.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Assessment of Clonal Expansion Using CarcSeq Measurement of Lung Cancer Driver Mutations and Correlation With Mouse Strain- and Sex-Related Incidence of Spontaneous Lung Neoplasia

Quantification of variation in levels of spontaneously occurring cancer driver mutations (CDMs) was developed to assess clonal expansion and predict future risk of neoplasm development. Specifically, an error-corrected next-generation sequencing method, CarcSeq, and a mouse CarcSeq panel (analogous to human and rat panels) were developed and used to quantify low-frequency mutations in a panel of amplicons enriched in hotspot CDMs. Mutations in a subset of panel amplicons, Braf, Egfr, Kras, Stk11, and Tp53, were related to incidence of lung neoplasms at 2 years. This was achieved by correlating median absolute deviation (MAD) from the overall median mutant fraction (MF) measured in the lung DNA of 16-week-old male and female, B6C3F1 and CD-1 mice (10 mice/sex/strain) with percentages of spontaneous alveolar/bronchioloalveolar adenomas and carcinomas reported in bioassay control groups. A total of 1586 mouse lung mutants with MFs > x 10-4 were recovered. The ratio of nonsynonymous to synonymous mutations was used to assess the proportion of recovered mutations conferring a positive selective advantage. The greatest ratio was observed in what is considered the most lung tumor-sensitive model examined, male B6C3F1 mice. Of the recurrent, nonsynonymous mouse mutations recovered, 55.5% have been reported in human tumors, with many located in or around the mouse equivalent of human cancer hotspot codons. MAD for the same subset of amplicons measured in normal human lung DNA samples showed a correlation of moderate strength and borderline significance with age (a cancer risk factor), as well as age-related cumulative lung cancer risk, suggesting MAD may inform species extrapolation.

Toxicology↗