Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “reliability, risk, and resilience”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Risk-Informed ATF and FLEX Analysis for an Enhanced Resilient BWR Under Design-Basis and Beyond-Design-Basis Accidents

This report documents the activities performed by the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) during fiscal year (FY) 2020 for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program, Risk-Informed System Analysis (RISA) Pathway, Enhanced Resilient Plant (ERP) Systems research. The purpose of the RISA Pathway research and development is to support plant owner-operator decisions with the aim to improve the economics, reliability, and maintain the high levels of safety of current nuclear power plants over periods of extended plant operations. The concept of ERP refers to the combinations of accident-tolerant fuel (ATF), optimal use of diverse and flexible coping strategy (FLEX), enhancements to plant components and systems, and the incorporation of augmented or new passive cooling systems, as well as improved fuel cycle efficiency. The objective of the ERP research effort is to use the RISA methods and toolkit in industry applications, including methods development and early demonstration of technologies, in order to enhance existing reactors’ safety features (both active and passive) and to substantially reduce operating costs through risk-informed approaches to plant design modifications to the plant and their characterization. One main focus of the FY 2020 efforts documented in this report was to extend the analyses conducted in FYs 2018 and 2019 for a pressurized water reactor (PWR) to a boiling water reactor (BWR). The same analysis process, risk analysis approaches, and analysis tools as in the previous work for PWR were used for a generic BWR with near-term ATF cladding (i.e., Iron-Chromium-Aluminum [FeCrAl] cladding and Chromium [Cr]-coated cladding) designs under the postulated station blackout (SBO) and medium loss-of-coolant (MLOCA) accident scenarios. In addition, a FLEX model was developed and incorporated into a generic BWR probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) model using the INL-developed software tool, Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations (SAPHIRE), to assess the risk impact from FLEX. The other main focus of the FY 2020 efforts was to advance analysis methods, including developing dynamic approach for FLEX human reliability analysis (HRA) using the INL-developed software tool, Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Linked Diagrams (EMRALD), as well as developing a multicriterion benefit evaluation (MCBE) method for evaluating costs and benefits of safety enhancements in nuclear power plants (NPPs). As a case study, the MCBE method was applied to evaluate the costs and benefits brought by FLEX implementation.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Climate Nowcasting

The climate is changing so rapidly that climatologies based on historical statistics cannot reliably capture the current risk of extreme weather events hazardous to society. Decision relevant projections of weather extreme probability over the next 10–15 years are needed to enable adaptation and resilience in the face of this evolving risk. Current weather forecasts/predictions and long-term climate projections for decades into the future are inadequate for providing this information to stakeholders that need it, targeting forecast horizons either too short or too far into the future. We argue that a new approach is needed: climate nowcasting. Climate nowcasting would focus on user-inspired extreme metrics over the next 10–15 year time frame, targeting specific impacts and locations down to a local scale, by engaging with stakeholders to understand their needs and provide information in a format relevant for decision making. Importantly, climate nowcasting will not consist of a single approach or data set, involving rather data fusion from different sources of information: simulations, observations and data driven methods, likely through different weights depending on the metric of interest. Predictions must be accompanied by serious engagement with stakeholders facing climate risks, and clearly present uncertainties and limitations of any prediction. Such a vision is very different from how typical climate or weather forecasts are applied today.

Gettelman, Andrew↗
DOE OSTI2023

Data-Driven Scalable Emulation of Hydropower Using Real-Time Hardware-in-the-Loop

This presentation covers Motivation: (1) With the increased grid integration of inverter-based resources, hydropower plays a crucial role in maintaining the bulk power system reliability and resilience; and (2) A more dynamic response and new control designs are required to meet the grid requirements. To evaluate any modification, control-prototyping, performance validation and de-risking grid integration of hydropower, a high-fidelity environment is required. Also covers Objectives: (1) To develop data-driven emulation of hydropower using hardware-in-the-loop for different size, types of hydro plants; and (2) To characterize hardware and obtain accurate dynamic response for shaft speed, torque, and power. Provide a mechanical power interface with emulated dynamics of a hydro-turbine shaft that can be coupled to electrical generators for mechanical and electrical PHIL.

electrical↗
DOE OSTI2024

ByzSec — A Multi-layered Byzantine Resilient Architecture for Bulk Power System Protective Relays

Reliability, selectivity, and sensitivity are the fundamental attributes of any protection system, acting as the main drivers in the selection of schemes, and equipment. In high-voltage systems, microprocessor-based relays represent the industry’s preferred solution, providing engineers with a vast array of benefits. However, they remain vulnerable to cybersecurity events that may compromise their functionality. To help mitigate against potential cybersecurity risks, this paper presents a fault-tolerant, Byzantine Resilient (BR) architecture that significantly increases the cybersecurity attributes of a protection system while minimizing the amount of performance impacts and integration overheads introduced. The solution relies on an array of independent relays that utilize robust consensus methods (based on Spire [1], [2]) to ensure correct system behavior is achieved even when a relay has been compromised. Furthermore, the solution has been complemented with a custom-built Situational Awareness engine that can be used to detect and identify potential threats. The implemented solution has been developed in consultation with three hardware vendors and has been tested to comply with the performance requirements of a 345kV differential protection scheme (87T). The results indicate that the proposed architecture is a comprehensive solution that: supports the strict correctness and performance requirements of the bulk power grid while providing a cost-effective alternative that offers a seamless, long-term solution.

byzantine security, Fault Tolerant Application Sof↗
DOE OSTI2023

Protecting Customer Privacy Through Distributed Energy Resource Anonymization

Due to their stochastic nature, the increase of Renewable Energy Resources (RERs) as a primary source of energy for power grids creates challenges regarding the reliability and resilience of the system. In order to combat these obstacles, expansion of Distributed Energy Resources (DERs) and their participation in Demand Response (DR) programs is necessary. Widespread participation requires prioritizing customer privacy and addressing concerns that may arise regarding communication between DERs and the Grid Service Provider (GSP). This paper discusses the use of flow reservation resources to split the operating cycles of DER load profiles into unique phases. The splitting of phases increases anonymization of the DERs by making it more difficult to determine the individual characteristics of the device. We discuss an example of this using simulated DER load profile data and examine the resulting effectiveness by using a machine learning algorithm for classification, called Support Vector Machine (SVM).

Distributed Energy Resource, Anonymization, Renewa↗
DOE OSTI2023

Component Assessment of the Electric Transmission Grid to Hurricanes

The increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events from climate change necessitates understanding impacts on critical infrastructure, particularly electrical transmission grids. One of the foundational concepts of a grid's resilience is its robustness to extreme weather events, such as hurricanes. Resilience of the electric grid to high wind speeds is predicated upon the location and physical characteristics of the system components. Previous modeling assessments of electric grid failure were done at the systems level with assumptions on location and type of specific components. To facilitate more explicit adaptation metrics, accurate component-level information is needed. In this study, we build and utilize a data set of location, physical characteristics, and age of transmission structures for nine counties in the Florida Panhandle. These component characteristics were then simulated for failure under a variety of scenarios using fragility curves. Eight hurricanes were modeled using Hazus from the Federal Emergency Management Administration and the resulting impact to the network was assessed. The network was generated using the transmission lines and towers, showing increasing impacts to network efficiency with larger storms. Although modern transmission structures are built under the more stringent extreme wind loading construction standards, the prevalence of older, wooden transmission structures throughout the region poses a substantial risk to reliable electricity transmission during tropical cyclone events from the Gulf of Mexico.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hydroclimate-coupled framework for assessing power system resilience under summer drought and climate change

Extreme drought, exacerbated by climate change, increasingly threatens power system resilience, and a systematic assessment of such impacts is challenging due to the unpredictability of drought and their associated modeling complexity. Here, to address the challenge, this research develops a hydroclimate-coupled power system resilience assessment framework that enables systematic modeling of drought and climate change impacts on generation, transmission, and demand sectors. Applying the framework to the 2025 Eastern U.S. power grid — comprising 6,055 at-risk generators — under climate-induced summer drought scenarios (including SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585) from 2023 to 2100, the study finds that climate-induced droughts could jeopardize the power system’s reliability to a greater extent than historical events, potentially leading to widespread load shedding. More specifically, the study reveals that under the twenty-one representative drought scenarios, the loss of load expectation (LOLE) of the grid could range from 34.77 to 91.48 days per summer. The simulations indicate that implementing resilience enhancement strategies is crucial to ensure reliable system operation, which encompasses initiatives such as demand response, upgrading open cooling systems, and transmission expansion. In all, these findings underscore the urgent need for proactive planning and investment in resilient U.S. power systems to mitigate the impacts of extreme drought events.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Securing the Modern Grid: Federal Investments, Digitization, and Supply Chain Strategy

Across the United States (U.S.) grid expansion and modernization is underway, paving the way for accelerated load growth and intelligent resource management. Digitization of the grid is supported by several state and federal programs, providing support for utilities installing advanced metering infrastructure (AMI), AI-powered analytics systems, battery energy storage systems (BESS), and distributed energy resource management systems (DERMS) to transform the grid from a one-way power delivery system into an intelligent, responsive network that will enable faster load growth and power expansion of data centers for advanced artificial intelligence (AI) applications. The digital transformation of America's grid presents opportunity for increased efficiency and resiliency but also introduces new digital risks that require careful management. Digital equipment often contains several vulnerabilities such as unencrypted communication protocols, and persistent remote access capabilities that could be exploited to manipulate device settings, coordinate service disruptions, or inject false data into grid operations. These digital risks become particularly important as the grid must rapidly scale to support AI-driven data centers, which the administration has identified as essential for maintaining U.S. technological leadership and economic competitiveness. These vulnerabilities are compounded by supply chain realities: Chinese manufacturers currently produce 70-90% of essential grid components including inverters, batteries, and control systems, with the U.S. lacking domestic manufacturing capacity for critical assets like extra-high voltage transformers. Recent federal legislation has established Foreign Entity of Concern (FEOC) restrictions to address these risks, requiring projects to achieve escalating thresholds of non-FEOC content to receive tax credits while utilities work to expand sourcing channels for their supply chains and strengthen security measures. These restrictions arrive precisely when utilities face unprecedented electricity demand growth driven by the rapid growth in data centers, creating a considerable challenge: rapidly expanding infrastructure while navigating complex compliance requirements while lacking viable alternatives for many critical components. Idaho National Laboratory (INL) and its partners have developed practical approaches to help utilities navigate these intersecting challenges as they leverage federal investment to strengthen and grow the grid. These solutions include Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE) principles that build resilience directly into systems, the Cirrus tool for secure cloud migration, and enhanced procurement guidance that embeds security requirements throughout equipment lifecycles. Federal initiatives, such as the Technical Assistance for Digital Assurance (TADA) project, provide direct support to utilities implementing these approaches while facilitating knowledge sharing across the industry. While these tools and frameworks cannot eliminate all risks inherent in foreign supply chain dependencies, they offer pragmatic pathways for strengthening security posture without sacrificing the deployment momentum essential to meeting surging electricity demand. Ultimately, securing America's digital energy infrastructure demands dedicated coordination across multiple fronts: building domestic supply chains, implementing robust digital assurance practices, and maintaining the aggressive modernization timeline necessary for reliability, resilience, and energy independence.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Coupling of the Electricity and Transportation Sectors - Part II: Risk Assessment

This comprehensive report explores the intricate interplay through “sector coupling” between the Transportation Sector, Energy Sector, and the critical infrastructure challenges faced by the United States. Aligned with the ambitious federal goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, the report analyzes the present vulnerabilities in the fossil fuel supply chain, highlighting instances where the dependence on this industry has been susceptible to local and global disruptions. With a focus on risk assessment, this report establishes a framework to compare the fossil fuel-based transportation sector with the burgeoning electrified sector, considering the evolving technologies in electric vehicles (EVs) and the nascent charging infrastructure. This study delves into the historical reliability of fossil fuel-based transportation and identifies opportunities for strengthening sector coupling between transportation and the electric sector. Assessments of the gasoline-diesel supply chain provide insights into both opportunities and threats, offering a roadmap for creating a more reliable and resilient electrified transportation system. We modeled sectoral coupling scenarios for the current internal combustion engine (ICE)-based and future EV-dominant landscapes, leveraging qualitative sector attributes to identify relative strengths and weaknesses in Part 1 of the report. In this report (Part 2) we continue to understand the role of the electricity sector on transportation and develop a semi-quantitative methodology is employed to evaluate and compare the risks associated with the fossil fueled and electric transportation sector during emergency scenarios, drawing from real-world events like hurricanes and geopolitical disruptions. Different operational scenarios for the fossil fuel and electrified sectors have been developed to understand the risks associated with them. This report concludes with recommendations for the architectural designs of electric charging infrastructure, underlining the need for informed decisions in the transition towards a sustainable and resilient transportation future.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

The evolution of the Human Systems and Simulation Laboratory in nuclear power research

The events at Three Mile Island in the United States brought about fundamental changes in the ways that simulation would be used in nuclear operations. The need for research simulators was identified to scientifically study human-centered risk and make recommendations for process control system designs. This paper documents the human factors research conducted at the Human Systems and Simulation Laboratory (HSSL) since its inception in 2010 at Idaho National Laboratory. The facility’s primary purposes are to provide support to utilities for system upgrades and to validate modernized control room concepts. In the last decade, however, as nuclear industry needs have evolved, so too have the purposes of the HSSL. Thus, beyond control room modernization, human factors researchers have evaluated the security of nuclear infrastructure from cyber adversaries and evaluated human-in-the-loop simulations for joint operations with an integrated hydrogen generation plant. Lastly, our review presents research using human reliability analysis techniques with data collected from HSSL-based studies and concludes with potential future directions for the HSSL, including severe accident management and advanced control room technologies.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Secure Time Synchronization in Power Grids and Network HIL Synchrophasor Testing

Reliable and secure time synchronization underpins the monitoring and control functions of modern power grids. As GPS-based timing infrastructures grow more susceptible to spoofing and jamming, their vulnerabilities pose escalating risks to grid stability. This work investigates a secure, resilient timing framework that can serve as an alternative or redundant source for power grids, with a particular focus on synchrophasorbased applications. A candidate timing system architecture is evaluated to guarantee trustworthy time dissemination, even in degraded conditions. A network hardware-in-the-loop testing of two synchrophasors validates the concepts, demonstrating enhanced timing integrity, improved detection of timing anomalies, and sustained observability during adverse timing events.

Wu, Ori [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000326723410)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Logarithmic Resilience Risk Metrics That Address the Huge Variations in Blackout Cost

Resilience risk metrics must address the customer cost of the largest blackouts of greatest impact. However, there are huge variations in blackout cost in observed distribution utility data that make it impractical to properly estimate the mean large blackout cost and the corresponding risk. These problems are caused by the heavy tail observed in the distribution of customer costs. To solve these problems, we propose resilience metrics that describe large blackout risk using the mean of the logarithm of the cost of large-cost blackouts, the slope index of the heavy tail, and the frequency of large-cost blackouts.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Resilient buildings for fire-adapted landscapes: EE and flexible loads integrated with solar and storage microgrids

Energy efficiency (EE) and flexible loads can be part of a resilient buildings packagewhen they are combined with solar and storage in a clean energy microgrid to reduce the carbonfootprint of buildings and enable resilience to extreme events. Recent large wildfires and an emerging understanding of the fire-adapted landscapes in the American West underscore the urgency of work towards scaling and commercializing these systems. For example, a recent power shutoff in Northern California (October 9-12, 2019) resulted in 738k customers disconnected at the peak of the outage and is emblematic of challenges to come. Our paper reports on insights from a clean energy microgrid deployment pilot that integrates a 50 kWAC PV array, a 109 kW / 174 kWh battery system, switchgear to safely isolate from the regional power system, and communicating controllers for HVAC and refrigeration. The project will be commissioned in May 2020 and is sited at a critical infrastructure site in rural Northern California – in this case a gasoline station with convenience store. Our experience and results shed light on capabilities of integrated microgrids to provide value to customers during blue sky conditions and resilience during black sky days with high fire risk, and what opportunities and barriers exist for scaling these integrated microgrid systems in the near term. We use a simulation model to estimate how EE and flexibility can extend the run time of solar and storage, improving the reliability of power at critical sites.

Alstone, Peter↗
DOE OSTI2024

PV Reliability and Resilience in Challenging Climates

Challenging climates for Photovoltaics are usually based on climate classification. However, extreme weather events such as high wind, flooding, large hail, extreme snow etc. have become more ubiquitous globally. To study the impact of extraordinary weather events on PV reliability we used two of the largest databases in the USA. First, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) database on extreme weather and secondly, the PV Fleet Data Initiative where we have collected high-resolution PV performance data of more than 8 gigawatts or about 6-7% of all commercial and utility systems in the USA. We analyzed almost 200 systems between 2008-20022 that were immediately impacted by these weather events. The immediate impact (outages) was determined to be about 1% of or a median of approximately 3 days of annual lost production. However, the risk these events pose is exemplified by a long tail where 0.4 % of all systems lost more than 2 weeks annual production. We also found a threshold for high wind (90 km/hr) and hail (25mm), above which we observed significantly higher degradation implying long-term damage to the systems. In addition, we are using satellite imagery to quantify visible damage to PV plants. Finally, we share module, design and installation lessons from some observed case studies to improve extreme weather resilience for PV power systems.

degradation↗
DOE OSTI2025

Cost-Benefit Analysis of Electricity Resilience Projects: State of the Art and Gap Analysis

Utilities and regulators must weigh the benefits of electricity resilience projects against their costs, which would be passed on to customers. Cost-benefit analysis (CBA) is an appropriate method for assessing this tradeoff. Here, in this paper we review the literature on CBA of electricity resilience projects and analyze gaps in the available methods and tools. The costs of resilience projects are typically straightforward to estimate but their benefits — particularly the avoided costs of power interruptions — are complex to quantify and monetize. A common perception among practitioners is that current CBA tools are not sufficiently mature to be adopted into real-world practice. We propose an electricity resilience CBA framework consisting of several elements: risks, physical impacts, power interruptions, economic impacts, and resilience projects. While methods for some elements are well-developed, there is a need for novel approaches to value avoided power interruptions, integrate multiple risks and benefit streams, and incorporate uncertainty.

Cost-benefit analysis↗
DOE OSTI2022

Real-time Event Detection Using Rank Signatures of Real-world PMU Data

Timely detection of power system events is a crucial task, which can facilitate the implementation of remedial actions to improve reliability, resiliency, and security of the system. Meanwhile, the widespread deployment of phasor measurement units (PMUs) makes it possible to develop data-driven event detection techniques. However, relying purely on data without incorporating domain knowledge for the event detection task in power systems poses substantial security and stability risks due to issues associated with data misinterpretation and model accuracy. In this regard, we propose a real-time event detection method using real-world PMU data by incorporating domain knowledge to adequately capture the event signatures. Specifically, we track the change in rank signatures of PMU data to accurately localize the events. To optimize the detection process, we incorporate an offline Bayesian optimization algorithm to tune the parameters by efficiently searching for the best values. The experiments using the real-world PMU dataset from a U.S. interconnection show that the proposed event detection approach can efficiently detect the events from PMU data streams with high accuracy.

Ghasemkhani, Amir↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Role of PHM in Autonomous Decision-Making: Aerospace applications

There is an increased need for onboard decision-making capabilities in cyber-physical systems be it in energy, automotive, aviation, space, or other industries as they aim for increased efficiency, resiliency, and mission assurance capabilities. Emerging next-gen technologies such as multi-rover planetary missions, distributed satellites, unmanned ground and aerial vehicle operations and smart grid systems rely on in-time risk assessment and autonomous decision-making. One critical piece of the autonomy puzzle is reliable prediction of system behavior under time-varying and potentially uncertain environmental conditions. Further, if agent states change during operation such as initiation of faults or degradation, reliable diagnostic tools need to be investigated. In this tutorial, we will revise approaches that integrates existing physics-based and data-driven models of agents interacting with probability models of the environment and component operation state. Role of existing PHM methodologies as they feed into decision-making under uncertainty will be studied. Balancing critical trade-offs between high-fidelity prognostic models, prediction time-horizons and the computational requirements for in-time cost-effective decision-making will be discussed through the implementation of surrogate models. Finally, the audience will be introduced to a real-time application of in-time trajectory planning of an unmanned aerial system (UAS) based on its PHM assessments under uncertain and varying wind conditions.

decision-making↗
DOE OSTI2022

ReNew100: Reliable Power System Operation with 100% Renewable Generation

The ReNew100 project has developed and demonstrated an operator support system (OSS) to operate power systems with 100% renewable power generation from inverter-based resources (IBRs) like wind and solar that significantly reduces the risk of widespread power outages in a simulated operational environment at Technology Readiness Level (TRL) 6. The OSS achieves resilient operation for power systems under changing operation modes including varying combinations of conventional and renewable generation, including cases with 100% renewable generation from wind and solar IBRs. The OSS continuously monitors the N-1 security of the power system, which refers to the ability of the power systems to survive single outages of power system elements, like the loss of a generator or a power line, without causing widespread power outages beyond those expected and planned for. If the OSS identifies that the system is not N-1 secure, an automatic Controller Parameter Optimization (CoPO) developed within Renew100 is activated to optimize the N-1 security of the system by tuning controller parameters within different assets like batteries, wind, and solar plants. The core innovation of ReNew100 is the development of this CoPO as well as the demonstration of the OSS for a real-time simulation of the Hawai'i Island power system. Moreover, Renew100 has developed new model calibration techniques for dynamic power system models and demonstrated them for Hawai'i Island.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗