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Comprehensive Study of the Potential of Extracting and Processing Critical Minerals from Coal-Based Resources - Phase I

The Phase I report prepared for the Department of Energy addresses U.S. Executive Order 13817 titled A Federal Strategy to Ensure Secure and Reliable Supplies of Critical Minerals, issued on December 20, 2017, that lists 35 critical minerals that are vulnerable to supply disruption. A comprehensive review of each of the minerals was conducted to determine the criticality based primarily on extractability from coal-based resources. Several other factors were also considered such as gaps in supply and demand, use in current technology, and the existence of viable substitutes. It was determined that the critical minerals that show highest potential for extraction from coal-based resources are lithium, rare earth elements (REEs), cobalt, and manganese. All four of the critical minerals listed serve an important role in the technology industry, have few substitutes, and have a heavy import reliance. Most notably are lithium, which is widely used in the electric vehicle industry, and the REEs which can be found in virtually all electronic devices. The research of critical mineral extraction from coal-based resources was completed using a combination of literature review from public sources as well as cooperation from coal mines and power plants across the United States. Samples collected from six different geographical locations across the U.S. were subjected to sample preparation (i.e., pH measurement, moisture content, particle size analysis) and characterization studies using Inductively Coupled Plasma-Mass Spectroscopy (ICP-MS) and Scanning Electron Microscopy, Energy Dispersive X-Ray Spectroscopy (SEM-EDX) instruments. 27 samples of coal waste materials such as refuse, sludge, and fly ash were tested to characterize the rare earth element concentration by total rare earth elements (TREEs), heavy rare earth elements (HREEs), and light rare earth elements (LREEs). Of the 27 samples tested, 22 contained a TREE concentration higher than the threshold of 300 ppm, which is considered a viable feedstock material. 3 samples contained less than 300 ppm of TREEs; however, they were within 20 ppm of the threshold, and could potentially be considered viable sources in the future pending the advancement of more efficient extraction technologies. 2 of the 27 samples had significantly low TREE concentrations, which does not imply any potential for being a source for REEs. For the minerals identified as most critical in the literature review, a conceptual process flow diagram (PFD) was developed for their extraction from different coal-based feedstocks. The process targets selective recovery of one commodity (i.e., rare earths, lithium, cobalt, and manganese) via several hydrometallurgical separation methods. By identifying potentially extractable coal-based critical mineral resources, a study of the current and future market environments for each critical mineral, and a review of current processing methodologies for critical mineral extraction from coal-based resources, the foundation has been laid to further characterize and explore new resources and extraction techniques. As reliance on technologies in industries such as the production of electronic devices, batteries, and alloys containing critical minerals utilizing critical minerals continues to increase, a sound understanding of our nation’s dependence on and even the global criticality of certain critical minerals, will serve as a catalyst for innovation in virtually all fields of science.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Final Technical Report

The Department of Energy is interested in technologies that support the sustainable production of fuels, chemicals, and other bioproducts from plant biomass, to offset the nation’s reliance on fossil resources. The plant cell wall of energy crops provides the largest reservoir of raw materials for bioproducts. However, the widespread use of plant cell walls is hampered by their complexity and resistance to breakdown. To improve the productivity and cost-effectiveness of using energy crops to generate bioproducts, the fundamental problem of deconstructing plant cell walls must be addressed. This project developed and evaluated an innovative genetic modification technology to produce strategically designed enzymes that specifically accumulate in the plant cell wall. The resulting enzyme-engineered energy crops are expected to grow normally under natural conditions but break down more quickly and easily under high temperature during the production of biobased products. As such, this plant cell wall targeting enzyme engineering effort will reduce the cost of plant cell wall deconstruction and ultimately improve the economics of bioproducts. The overall objective of this project is to develop and evaluate the in-planta enzyme engineering technology to reduce lignocellulose deconstruction cost. The concept was first validated using tobacco plant, a model plant system that is typically used in lab testing for initial concept validation. Then the enzyme optimization was validated using switchgrass, the energy crop to be used to produce bioproducts. There are three specific objectives in this Phase I project: (1) validate the enzyme optimization concept using tobacco plant, a model plant system. (2) validate the enzyme optimization concept using switchgrass. (3) techno-economic analysis (TEA) for further scale-up application. By the end of this project, in-planta enzyme engineering was validated in both tobacco and switchgrass plants, with improved enzyme activity and saccharification efficiency. The in-planta enzyme engineering in Tabacco didn’t have a significant impact on plant growth and development. Transgenic tobacco plants with in-planta cellulose degrading enzymes showed higher biomass digestibility than wild type. Gene construction and transformation in switchgrass was much longer than expected, which delayed the research progress. Besides, in-planta engineering of lignin degrading enzyme is more challenging than cellulose degrading enzyme, in terms of expression detection. Expression of lignin degrading enzyme and cellulose degrading enzyme improved biomass yield and saccharification efficiency of switchgrass, respectively. It is promising to express both genes in switchgrass for optimized overall performance. According to the results of TEA, switchgrass biomass production cost is mainly attributed to by fertility and harvesting. Biomass production profit can increase up to 10-fold depending on biomass price. The PHA production profit is also sensitive to the biomass price. The proposed technology could potentially reduce the biomass deconstruction cost from 33% to 9% of PHA revenue, making the biomass-based PHA competitive to petroleum-based polymers even in case of relatively high biomass price of biomass. Therefore, cultivation of the genetically engineered self-deconstruction switchgrass for Polyhydroxyalkanoate (PHA) production could benefit switchgrass grower and PHA producer with attractive profits for both sectors. This new enzyme optimization approach will be beneficial for bioindustries that use energy crops as feedstocks. It will improve the economic viability of converting energy crops to renewable products that support a sustainable society and helps address the Nation’s long-term strategic needs for renewable products and reduction of reliance on fossil resources.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Enhancing Power Resilience for Remote Communities: A Comprehensive Renewable Energy Solution for Itbayat Island

The island of Itbayat, Philippines, faces significant challenges in maintaining a reliable and resilient power supply due to its current reliance on a vulnerable power distribution system managed by a local electric cooperative. The existing infrastructure, which includes diesel generators and a radial network configuration with some above-ground lines, is highly susceptible to frequent typhoons and adverse weather conditions. These factors, combined with inadequate staffing and high operational costs, result in frequent power outages that disrupt daily life and hinder economic development. This white paper proposes a comprehensive solution to enhance the resilience and reliability of Itbayat's power system by integrating renewable energy sources, specifically solar photovoltaic (PV) systems, battery storage, and a microgrid controller. The proposed solution aims to reduce dependency on diesel fuel, optimize energy use, and provide a sustainable and robust power supply for the island. Key components of the solution include: 1. Solar PV Installation: Deploying solar PV panels to harness abundant solar energy, reducing reliance on diesel fuel. 2. Battery Storage Systems: Installing battery storage to store excess solar energy and ensure a continuous power supply during low solar generation periods. 3. Microgrid Controller: Implementing a microgrid controller to manage and optimize the integration of solar PV, battery storage, and existing diesel generators. The proposed solution addresses several critical issues, including system vulnerability, generator dependency, and operational inefficiencies. By adopting this innovative approach, Itbayat Island can achieve a more resilient, efficient, and sustainable energy infrastructure, ensuring a stable power supply for its residents and enhancing overall energy security.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Akiachak Energy Efficiency Retrofit Project (Final Technical Report)

The Akiachak Native Community (ANC), a federally recognized Yup'ik Tribe, undertook this energy efficiency initiative to enhance energy performance in key community buildings, including the Tribal IRA Office, Laundry, Police Station, Clinic, and Daycare. Through energy audits and upgrades, the project focused on high-impact improvements like air sealing, LED lighting, and programmable thermostats, primarily in the Tribal Office due to funding constraints. The initiative aims to reduce energy waste, lower heating and electricity costs, and improve facility comfort and longevity. The project aims to generate long-term savings for further improvements by decreasing reliance on imported fuel oil. This initiative aligns with the Tribe's vision for responsible energy use, addressing the challenges of high fuel prices in a remote community, and serves as a model for similar efforts in Akiachak and other Alaska Native villages pursuing energy self-reliance.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Utilizing Time Reversal Ultrasonics to Detect the Removal of Nuclear Materials from Geological Repositories (FY26 Mid-Year)

Detecting unauthorized nuclear material removal from storage environments, such as geological repositories, is a critical safeguards task essential to ensuring the integrity and non-diversion of nuclear materials. However, this process is fraught with significant technical challenges. Storage configurations often involve tightly packed nuclear material containers or obstructed environments, making detection of removal events exceedingly difficult. Optical surveillance cameras, which are commonly used for monitoring, suffer from substantial limitations, including restricted coverage, reliance on line-of-sight measurements, and vulnerability to environmental conditions in certain storage scenarios. As the global inventory of monitored nuclear materials increases and storage configurations become more complex— such as deep geological repositories, inaccessible storage vaults, and tightly packed containers—there is an urgent need for innovative detection technologies that can reliably identify unauthorized diversion events in these challenging environments. The challenge of detecting nuclear material removal in complex storage environments is both significant and urgent. Preventing unauthorized access, diversion, or tampering with nuclear materials is a cornerstone of global nuclear safeguards and nonproliferation efforts. Current detection methods are increasingly inadequate as storage configurations become more intricate and inaccessible. The limitations of existing technologies—such as their inability to detect changes behind obstructions, reliance on costly and labor-intensive processes, and vulnerability to environmental conditions—pose risks to the effectiveness of safeguards systems. Addressing this challenge is critical to maintaining international trust in nuclear safeguards frameworks and ensuring compliance with nonproliferation agreements. Our project builds on the proven concept of TRU technology that can address this unmet need. TRU has demonstrated exceptional spatial sensitivity and change detection capabilities in complex non-line-ofsight environments, making it uniquely suited for detecting unauthorized nuclear material removal in challenging storage configurations. Unlike optical methods, TRU is not limited by line-of-sight constraints or environmental conditions, enabling reliable detection of subtle alterations even behind obstructions. By leveraging TRU’s ability to identify removal or tampering events, we aim to develop a robust detection system that enhances safeguards in geological repositories, storage vaults, and other complex environments.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Aniak Energy Efficiency Retrofit Project

The Native Village of Aniak (NVA), a federally recognized Yup'ik Tribe, undertook this energy efficiency initiative to enhance energy performance in key community buildings, including the Tribal Office, Community Center, Duplex, and Association of Village Council Presidents (AVCP) Office. Through energy audits and upgrades, the project focused on high-impact improvements like air sealing, LED lighting, and programmable thermostats, primarily in the Tribal Office due to funding constraints. The initiative aimed to reduce energy waste, lower heating and electricity costs, and improve facility comfort and longevity while achieving long-term savings for further improvements by decreasing reliance on imported fuel oil. Despite scope limitations exacerbated by budget constraints, this project achieved an approximately 52% reduction in EUI. Reducing operational costs emphasizes economic and environmental benefits, aligning closely with Aniak's broader energy sustainability objectives. This initiative aligned with the Tribe's vision for responsible energy use, addressing the challenges of high fuel prices in a remote community; it could serve as a model for similar efforts in Aniak and other Alaska Native villages pursuing energy self-reliance.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Resource Occurrence and Productivity in Existing and Proposed Wind Energy Lease Areas on the Northeast US Shelf

States in the Northeast United States have the ambitious goal of producing more than 22 GW of offshore wind energy in the coming decades. The infrastructure associated with offshore wind energy development is expected to modify marine habitats and potentially alter the ecosystem services. Species distribution models were constructed for a group of fish and macroinvertebrate taxa resident in the Northeast US Continental Shelf marine ecosystem. These models were analyzed to provide baseline context for impact assessment of lease areas in the Middle Atlantic Bight designated for renewable wind energy installations. Using random forest machine learning, models based on occurrence and biomass were constructed for 93 species providing seasonal depictions of their habitat distributions. We developed a scoring index to characterize lease area habitat use for each species. Subsequently, groups of species were identified that reflect varying levels of lease area habitat use ranging across high, moderate, low, and no reliance on the lease area habitats. Among the species with high to moderate reliance were black sea bass ( Centropristis striata ), summer flounder ( Paralichthys dentatus ), and Atlantic menhaden ( Brevoortia tyrannus ), which are important fisheries species in the region. Potential for impact was characterized by the number of species with habitat dependencies associated with lease areas and these varied with a number of continuous gradients. Habitats that support high biomass were distributed more to the northeast, while high occupancy habitats appeared to be further from the coast. There was no obvious effect of the size of the lease area on the importance of associated habitats. Model results indicated that physical drivers and lower trophic level indicators might strongly control the habitat distribution of ecologically and commercially important species in the wind lease areas. Therefore, physical and biological oceanography on the continental shelf proximate to wind energy infrastructure development should be monitored for changes in water column structure and the productivity of phytoplankton and zooplankton and the effects of these changes on the trophic system.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

A Double-Edged Sword: The Role of Prior Knowledge in Memory Aging

People accumulate knowledge throughout their lifespan and the accumulated knowledge influences how we encode and retrieve information in memory processing. This study aims to investigate the role of knowledge in associative memory across the adult lifespan, and specifically examines the effects of two material properties that interact with prior knowledge: congruency – whether the material is congruent with people’s prior knowledge, and ambiguity – whether the material is ambiguous to interpret based on prior knowledge. 273 participants (aged 22–70 years old) completed an incidental memory task online. Participants were shown pictures depicting an object in a scene and judged if the object was likely or unlikely to be in the particular scene. Later, in the recognition test, participants were asked to identify if the exact picture was presented earlier. The pictures were manipulated to have varying levels of congruency, meaning that some depicted likely object–scene pairs and some unlikely. We also measured how different the likely/unlikely judgment for each object–scene pair was across all participants to determine the ambiguity level of the object–scene pair: some were more likely to receive diverse responses across people, whereas others are unambiguously consistent (or inconsistent) with common knowledge shared by most people. We used mixed-effects logistic regressions to predict memory outcome for each trial as a function of age, age 2 , congruency/ambiguity, and their interactions. The object–scene pairs perceived as congruent had higher hit rates than incongruent ones, as well as higher false alarm rates, especially in middle-aged and older people. Higher ambiguity was also related to both greater true and false memory, independent of age. Finally, the effect of ambiguity only emerged when the object–scene pair was perceived incongruent. The results suggest that people rely on prior knowledge to process new information and that this reliance improves hit responses, but also induces false memories particularly for middle-aged and older people, suggesting a double-edged role of knowledge in associative memory and its disproportionate influence on memory aging. Over-reliance on knowledge in older adults, which has been suspected in other cognitive processes, may be one of the mechanisms underlying associative memory decrease in aging.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Decentralized Distributed Proximal Policy Optimization (DD-PPO) for High Performance Computing Scheduling on Multi-User Systems

Resource allocation in High Performance Computing (HPC) environments presents a complex and multifaceted challenge for job scheduling algorithms. Beyond the efficient allocation of system resources, schedulers must account for and optimize multiple performance metrics, including job wait time and system throughput. Traditional heuristic-based scheduling algorithms increasingly struggle and lack the efficiency needed to meet the demands and address the complexity and scale of modern HPC systems. Consequently, recent research efforts have focused on leveraging advancements in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Deep Learning (DL), particularly Reinforcement Learning (RL), to develop more adaptable and intelligent scheduling strategies. Previous RL-based scheduling approaches have explored a range of algorithms, from Deep Q-Networks (DQN) to Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO), and more recently, hybrid methods that integrate Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) with RL techniques. However, a common limitation across these methods is their reliance on relatively small datasets, with few methods being evaluated using large-scale, multi-million-job trace datasets representative of real-world HPC workloads. Moreover, existing RL schedulers face scalability issues due to centralized policy updates, which hinder training efficiency and performance when applied to large datasets. This study introduces a novel RL-based scheduler utilizing Decentralized Distributed Proximal Policy Optimization (DD-PPO) algorithm, which supports large-scale distributed training across multiple workers without requiring parameter synchronization at every step. By eliminating reliance on centralized updates to a shared policy, the DD-PPO scheduler enhances scalability, training efficiency, and sample utilization. Experimental validation using a large real-world dataset containing over 11.5 million job traces collected from petascale HPC systems over six years assesses the influence of dataset scale on training effectiveness and compares DD-PPO performance to traditional and advanced scheduling approaches. The experimental results demonstrate improved scheduling performance in comparison to both heuristic-based schedulers and existing RL-based scheduling algorithms.

AI↗

Development of Design Data for Propulsion PMR-15 Composites

The continuing development of PMR-15 composite materials and their associated design properties is pacing the implementation of this technology on commercial aircraft. The guidelines that the FAA has issued regarding the certification of advanced composite structures are very significant with respect to future PMR-15 research and development activities. The FAA has issued an advisory circular dated 1-5-83 concerning guidelines for composite aircraft structures. Of particular significance to PMR-15 technology development is the reliance on combined environmental exposure and component testing, coupled with the stipulation that reliance on previous experience be limited to where common structures and materials have been used for a similar function. Critical environmental exposures for commercial propulsion structures include 50,000 cycle service life, exposure to skydrol, moisture and other fluids, and nacelle fire conditions.

Postlewaite, J.↗

Precision orbit determination using the Tracking and Data Relay Satellite System (TDRSS)

The growth of the Tracking and Data Relay Satellite System (TDRSS) is the result of a greater reliance on the systems to provide nearly global coverage for relaying data from environmental satellites and to reduce or eliminate the reliance on global networks of tracking ground stations. Tracking data collected by TDRSS is often used to compute orbital solutions for moperational mission requirements. Investigations are in progress that seek to assess the feasibility of extending the use of tracking data collected by TDRSS as a means for computing precise orbital solutions. Specifically, this investigation will use covariance analysis techniques to evaluate this extended capability as applied to the TOPEX/Poseidon mission. This study will complement other investigations which carry out similar assessments of TDRSS using actual tracking data. This paper presents some preliminary results for Cycle 5 of the TOPEX/Poseidon mission using simulated two-way range-rate measurements.

Roesset, P.↗

Effects of Secondary Task Modality and Processing Code on Automation Trust and Utilization During Simulated Airline Luggage Screening

The purpose of this research was to examine the impact of environmental distractions on human trust and utilization of automation during the process of visual search. Participants performed a computer-simulated airline luggage screening task with the assistance of a 70% reliable automated decision aid (called DETECTOR) both with and without environmental distractions. The distraction was implemented as a secondary task in either a competing modality (visual) or non-competing modality (auditory). The secondary task processing code either competed with the luggage screening task (spatial code) or with the automation's textual directives (verbal code). We measured participants' system trust, perceived reliability of the system (when a target weapon was present and absent), compliance, reliance, and confidence when agreeing and disagreeing with the system under both distracted and undistracted conditions. Results revealed that system trust was lower in the visual-spatial and auditory-verbal conditions than in the visual-verbal and auditory-spatial conditions. Perceived reliability of the system (when the target was present) was significantly higher when the secondary task was visual rather than auditory. Compliance with the aid increased in all conditions except for the auditory-verbal condition, where it decreased. Similar to the pattern for trust, reliance on the automation was lower in the visual-spatial and auditory-verbal conditions than in the visual-verbal and auditory-spatial conditions. Confidence when agreeing with the system decreased with the addition of any kind of distraction; however, confidence when disagreeing increased with the addition of an auditory secondary task but decreased with the addition of a visual task. A model was developed to represent the research findings and demonstrate the relationship between secondary task modality, processing code, and automation use. Results suggest that the nature of environmental distractions influence interaction with automation via significant effects on trust and system utilization. These findings have implications for both automation design and operator training.

Phillips, Rachel↗

Conjunction Assessment Past, Present, and Future

Since 1957, humankind's reliance on the space domain for military, humanitarian, and commercial applications has continued to increase. 1960 first successful use of a meteorological satellite,1963 first use of a geosynchronous communications satellite, 1985 Block I of GPS fielded, 1998 first module of ISS, 2001 first satellite radio broadcast over North America. What you take into space, stays in space: launch vehicle, rocket-bodies, mission-related debris. Debris can also be generated on-orbit: fuel/battery explosions, collisions. Only naturally-occurring retarding effect is orbital decay due to atmospheric drag: some remediation measures available, active debris removal not yet viable option. Because of our reliance on space and the fact that space really isn't limitless, the Big Sky theory is no longer an acceptable risk posture. There have been eight (8) on-orbit collisions reported to date, half of which occurred in the last 10 years.

Assessment↗

Bayesian Safety Risk Modeling of Human-Flightdeck Automation Interaction

Usage of automatic systems in airliners has increased fuel efficiency, added extra capabilities, enhanced safety and reliability, as well as provide improved passenger comfort since its introduction in the late 80's. However, original automation benefits, including reduced flight crew workload, human errors or training requirements, were not achieved as originally expected. Instead, automation introduced new failure modes, redistributed, and sometimes increased workload, brought in new cognitive and attention demands, and increased training requirements. Modern airliners have numerous flight modes, providing more flexibility (and inherently more complexity) to the flight crew. However, the price to pay for the increased flexibility is the need for increased mode awareness, as well as the need to supervise, understand, and predict automated system behavior. Also, over-reliance on automation is linked to manual flight skill degradation and complacency in commercial pilots. As a result, recent accidents involving human errors are often caused by the interactions between humans and the automated systems (e.g., the breakdown in man-machine coordination), deteriorated manual flying skills, and/or loss of situational awareness due to heavy dependence on automated systems. This paper describes the development of the increased complexity and reliance on automation baseline model, named FLAP for FLightdeck Automation Problems. The model development process starts with a comprehensive literature review followed by the construction of a framework comprised of high-level causal factors leading to an automation-related flight anomaly. The framework was then converted into a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) using the Hugin Software v7.8. The effects of automation on flight crew are incorporated into the model, including flight skill degradation, increased cognitive demand and training requirements along with their interactions. Besides flight crew deficiencies, automation system failures and anomalies of avionic systems are also incorporated. The resultant model helps simulate the emergence of automation-related issues in today's modern airliners from a top-down, generalized approach, which serves as a platform to evaluate NASA developed technologies

Ancel, Ersin↗

Enhanced Flight Vision Systems Operational Feasibility Study Using Radar and Infrared Sensors

Approach and landing operations during periods of reduced visibility have plagued aircraft pilots since the beginning of aviation. Although techniques are currently available to mitigate some of the visibility conditions, these operations are still ultimately limited by the pilot's ability to "see" required visual landing references (e.g., markings and/or lights of threshold and touchdown zone) and require significant and costly ground infrastructure. Certified Enhanced Flight Vision Systems (EFVS) have shown promise to lift the obscuration veil. They allow the pilot to operate with enhanced vision, in lieu of natural vision, in the visual segment to enable equivalent visual operations (EVO). An aviation standards document was developed with industry and government consensus for using an EFVS for approach, landing, and rollout to a safe taxi speed in visibilities as low as 300 feet runway visual range (RVR). These new standards establish performance, integrity, availability, and safety requirements to operate in this regime without reliance on a pilot's or flight crew's natural vision by use of a fail-operational EFVS. A pilot-in-the-loop high-fidelity motion simulation study was conducted at NASA Langley Research Center to evaluate the operational feasibility, pilot workload, and pilot acceptability of conducting straight-in instrument approaches with published vertical guidance to landing, touchdown, and rollout to a safe taxi speed in visibility as low as 300 feet RVR by use of vision system technologies on a head-up display (HUD) without need or reliance on natural vision. Twelve crews flew various landing and departure scenarios in 1800, 1000, 700, and 300 RVR. This paper details the non-normal results of the study including objective and subjective measures of performance and acceptability. The study validated the operational feasibility of approach and departure operations and success was independent of visibility conditions. Failures were handled within the lateral confines of the runway for all conditions tested. The fail-operational concept with pilot in the loop needs further study.

Etherington, Timothy J.↗

Real-Time Early Warning Techniques

Contemporary approaches to aerospace vehicle system monitoring rely heavily on thresholds that represent a compromise between providing warning early enough to avert a mishap while simultaneously minimizing false alarms. While this reliance on thresholds has been in place for decades and has permeated both cockpits and control rooms, we often find it insufficient when retrospectively analyzing data from an accident. To modernize and enhance flight test safety, we introduce new methods of monitoring for anomalous patterns of interaction rather than for thresholds exceedance. For systems with a well characterized baseline we show how the Inductive Monitoring System (IMS), utilized by NASA in the aftermath of the Columbia accident, might be implemented in real-time to provide earlier warning than currently employed techniques. For systems without such a baseline, we introduce new developments in statistical methods relating to critical slowing down, first applied in medicine and physics, which show promise for adaptation to flight test. Finally, the familiar resource constrained environment leads to a reliance on increased instrumentation that is challenging the limits of the current one-sensor, one-indicator threshold paradigm. Existing methods thus fail to accurately reflect the true complexity of a vehicle rich with interdependent interacting systems. We highlight these concepts in a brief summary of the 2001 Air Transat Flight 236 deadstick landing in the Azores. We then suggest control room and cockpit modifications to better display the information gleaned using these novel monitoring methods.

Javorsek, Dan↗

Enhancing Flight Test Safety with Real-Time Early Warning Techniques

Contemporary approaches to aerospace vehicle system monitoring rely heavily on thresholds that represent a compromise between providing warning early enough to avert a mishap while simultaneously minimizing false alarms. While this reliance on thresholds has been in place for decades and has permeated both cockpits and control rooms, we often find it insufficient when retrospectively analyzing data from an accident. To modernize and enhance flight test safety, we introduce new methods of monitoring for anomalous patterns of interaction rather than for thresholds exceedance. For systems with a well characterized baseline we show how the Inductive Monitoring System (IMS), utilized by NASA in the aftermath of the Columbia accident, might be implemented in real-time to provide earlier warning than currently employed techniques. For systems without such a baseline, we introduce new developments in statistical methods relating to critical slowing down, first applied in medicine and physics, which show promise for adaptation to flight test. Finally, the familiar resource constrained environment leads to a reliance on increased instrumentation that is challenging the limits of the current "one-sensor, one-indicator" threshold paradigm. Existing methods thus fail to accurately reflect the true complexity of a vehicle rich with interdependent interacting systems. We highlight these concepts in a brief summary of the 2001 Air Transat Flight 236 deadstick landing in the Azores. We then suggest control room and cockpit modifications to better display the information gleaned using these novel monitoring methods.

Javorsek, Daniel, II↗

Utilizing Convolutional Neural Networks for Global Seagrass Habitat Mapping

Convolutional neural networks (CNNs) are becoming an increasingly prevalent machine learning algorithm due to their high accuracy and lack of reliance on heuristic processes. One of the major drawbacks of convolutional neural networks is their reliance on large amounts of training data in order to generate sensible results. This talk will cover how our team has utilized the strengths and overcome the weaknesses of convolutional neural networks as they apply to seagrass habitat mapping. We will share our technical CNN results over time, detail the requirements and challenges that our team overcame and explore how other teams can better incorporate a stronger seagrass component into their machine learning projects.

Convolutional↗