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At least 55 records · Page 3

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

NASA NTRS2014

Monitoring for Renal Stone Recurrence in Astronauts With History of Stone

After an initial stone episode persons are at increased risk for future stone formation. A systematic approach is required to monitor the efficacy of treatment and preventive measures, and to assess the risk of developing new stones. This is important for persons working in critical jobs or austere environments, such as astronauts. A literature review of the current standards of care for renal stone monitoring and imaging was done. Military and civil aviation standards were also reviewed, as well as the medical precedents from the space program. Additionally, a new, more effective, renal stone ultrasound protocol has been developed. Using this work, a monitoring algorithm was proposed that takes into consideration the unique mission and operational environment of spaceflight. The approach to imaging persons with history of renal stones varies widely in the literature. Imaging is often done yearly or biannually, which may be too long for mission critical personnel. In the proposed algorithm astronauts with a history of renal stone, who may be under consideration for assignment, are imaged by a detailed, physiciandriven, ultrasound protocol. Unassigned personnel are monitored by yearly ultrasound and urine studies. Any positive ultrasound study is then followed by low-dose renal computed tomography scan. Other criteria are also established. The proposed algorithm provides a balanced approach between efficacy and reduced radiation exposure for the monitoring of astronauts with a renal stone history. This may eventually allow a transition from a risk-averse, to a risk-modifying approach that can enable continued service of individuals with history of renal stone that have adequately controlled risk factors.

Reyes, David P.↗

DOE OSTI2025

From Stewardship to Transformation: Toward a Nuclear Enterprise for the 21st Century

The erosion of the global security environment over the last two decades has been rapid and dramatic. It appears also to be accelerating. There are deep and widening concerns in the United States and among its allies and partners that deterrence too has eroded at both the conventional and nuclear levels. The Strategic Posture Commission captured the essence of the problem in its October 2023 report—the United States seeks to meet the challenges of complex multipolar nuclear rivalry in the 21 st century with a slimmed down version of a nuclear deterrent designed in the middle of the 20 th century. With great urgency, the Commission recommended that something more and/or different is needed than simply the replacement of legacy systems with modern variants. But the U.S. nuclear security enterprise was reshaped after the Cold War to support the stockpile stewardship mission—not renewed designed, engineering, and production at scale. It has long fallen short of the agility, flexibility, and adaptiveness periodically asked of it by national leaders. In recent years, however, the message of urgency has been clearly received in the enterprise. Its culture has begun to shift. It has also been received by those in Washington D.C. responsible for funding and guiding the enterprise. The result is an enterprise in transition. Stockpile stewardship has given way to stockpile transformation. Risk aversion is giving way to risk management. Innovation and adaptation have been embraced. Experience to date has yielded some important lessons about what works and what doesn’t in terms of accelerating and delivering the needed innovation and adaptation. It has revealed the enduring character of some challenges. But it has also revealed that a much more agile and effective enterprise is within the national reach—something that will pay important dividends for deterrence, assurance, strategic stability, and peace.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

DOE OSTI2025

Data-Driven Compositional Optimization in Misspecified Regimes

With a manifold growth in the scale and intricacy of systems, the challenges of parametric misspecification become pronounced. These concerns are further exacerbated in compositional settings, which emerge in problems complicated by modeling risk and robustness. In “Data-Driven Compositional Optimization in Misspecified Regimes,” the authors consider the resolution of compositional stochastic optimization problems, plagued by parametric misspecification. In considering settings where such misspecification may be resolved via a parallel learning process, the authors develop schemes that can contend with diverse forms of risk, dynamics, and nonconvexity. They provide asymptotic and rate guarantees for unaccelerated and accelerated schemes for convex, strongly convex, and nonconvex problems in a two-level regime with extensions to the multilevel setting. Surprisingly, the nonasymptotic rate guarantees show no degradation from the rate statements obtained in a correctly specified regime and the schemes achieve optimal (or near-optimal) sample complexities for general T-level strongly convex and nonconvex compositional problems.

Business & Economics↗

NASA NTRS2016

Electrical, Electronic and Electromechanical (EEE) Parts in the New Space Paradigm: When is Better the Enemy of Good Enough?

As the space business rapidly evolves to accommodate a lower cost model of development and operation via concepts such as commercial space and small spacecraft (aka, CubeSats), traditional EEE parts screening and qualification methods are being scrutinized under a risk-reward trade space. In this presentation, two basic concepts will be the overarching theme: 1) The movement from complete risk aversion EEE parts methods to managing and/or accepting risk via alternate approaches; and, 2) A discussion of over-design focusing on both electrical design performance and bounding margins.

Small spacecraft↗

NASA NTRS2017

Electrical, Electronic and Electromechanical (EEE) Parts in the New Space Paradigm: When is Better the Enemy of Good Enough?

As the space business rapidly evolves to accommodate a lower cost model of development and operation via concepts such as commercial space and small spacecraft (aka, CubeSats and swarms), traditional EEE parts screening and qualification methods are being scrutinized under a risk-reward trade space. In this presentation, two basic concepts will be discussed: (1) The movement from complete risk aversion EEE parts methods to managing and/or accepting risk via alternate approaches; and, (2) A discussion of emerging assurance methods to reduce overdesign as well emerging model based mission assurance (MBMA) concepts. center dot Example scenarios will be described as well as consideration for trading traditional versus alternate methods.

LaBel, Kenneth A.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Electrical, Electronic and Electromechanical (EEE) Parts in the New Space Paradigm: When is Better the Enemy of Good Enough?

As the space business rapidly evolves to accommodate a lower cost model of development and operation via concepts such as commercial space and small spacecraft (aka, CubeSats), traditional EEE parts screening and qualification methods are being scrutinized under a risk-reward trade space. In this presentation, two basic concepts will be the overarching theme: 1) The movement from complete risk aversion EEE parts methods to managing andor accepting risk via alternate approaches; and, 2) A discussion of over-design focusing on both electrical design performance and bounding margins.

Electrical, Electronic, and Electromechanical (EEE↗

NASA NTRS2016

Electrical, Electronic and Electromechanical (EEE) Parts in the New Space Paradigm: When is Better the Enemy of Good Enough?

As the space business rapidly evolves to accommodate a lower cost model of development and operation via concepts such as commercial space and small spacecraft (aka, CubeSats), traditional EEE parts screening and qualification methods are being scrutinized under a risk-reward trade space. In this presentation, two basic concepts will be the overarching theme: 1) The movement from complete risk aversion EEE parts methods to managing and or accepting risk via alternate approaches; and, 2) A discussion of over-design focusing on both electrical design performance and bounding margins.

Electrical↗

NASA NTRS2016

Recent Advances and Future Challenges in Risk-Based Radiation Engineering

We cover a top-level introduction to hardness assurance (HA) from a robotic space system perspective, starting at the piece-part level. We discuss error sources inherent to presently-accepted HA practices and why they cause us to be risk-averse. We conclude by reviewing current proposals that move towards more risk-tolerant system design approaches as well as future challenges that will require these advanced techniques.

radiation effects↗

DOE OSTI2023

Carbon mitigation payments can reduce the riskiness of bioenergy crop production

Abstract Perennial bioenergy crops provide substantial carbon mitigation benefits but have risky returns. We couple economic analysis with a biogeochemical model (DayCent) to examine the effect of carbon mitigation payments on the spatially varying bioenergy crop returns and risk profiles relative to conventional crops across the rainfed United States. These payments increase the likelihood of positive profit in the Midwest for miscanthus and southern states for switchgrass. At low biomass prices, these payments make bioenergy crops appealing to risk‐averse farmers. At moderate biomass prices, these payments make bioenergy crops appealing to all farmers regardless of risk preference.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Habitat use by female desert tortoises suggests tradeoffs between resource use and risk avoidance

Animals may select habitat to maximize the benefits of foraging on growth and reproduction, while balancing competing factors like the risk of predation or mortality from other sources. Variation in the distribution of food resources may lead animals to forage at times or in places that carry greater predation risk, with individuals in poor quality habitats expected to take greater risks while foraging. We studied Mojave desert tortoises ( Gopherus agassizii ) in habitats with variable forage availability to determine if risk aversion in their selection of habitat relative was related to abundance of forage. As a measure of risk, we examined tortoise surface activity and mortality. We also compared tortoise body size and body condition between habitats with ample forage plants and those with less forage plants. Tortoises from low forage habitats selected areas where more annual plants were nutritious herbaceous flowering plants but did not favor areas of greater perennial shrub cover that could shelter them or their burrows. In contrast, tortoises occupying high forage habitats showed no preference for forage characteristics, but used burrows associated with more abundant and larger perennial shrubs. Tortoises in high forage habitats were larger and active above ground more often but did not have better body condition. Mortality was four times higher for females occupying low forage habitat than those in high forage habitat. Our results are consistent with the idea that tortoises may minimize mortality risk where food resources are high, but may accept some tradeoff of greater mortality risk in order to forage optimally when food resources are limiting.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2009

CRYOTE (Cryogenic Orbital Testbed) Concept

Demonstrating cryo-fluid management (CFM) technologies in space is critical for advances in long duration space missions. Current space-based cryogenic propulsion is viable for hours, not the weeks to years needed by space exploration and space science. CRYogenic Orbital TEstbed (CRYOTE) provides an affordable low-risk environment to demonstrate a broad array of critical CFM technologies that cannot be tested in Earth's gravity. These technologies include system chilldown, transfer, handling, health management, mixing, pressure control, active cooling, and long-term storage. United Launch Alliance is partnering with Innovative Engineering Solutions, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, and others to develop CRYOTE to fly as an auxiliary payload between the primary payload and the Centaur upper stage on an Atlas V rocket. Because satellites are expensive, the space industry is largely risk averse to incorporating unproven systems or conducting experiments using flight hardware that is supporting a primary mission. To minimize launch risk, the CRYOTE system will only activate after the primary payload is separated from the rocket. Flying the testbed as an auxiliary payload utilizes Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle performance excess to cost-effectively demonstrate enhanced CFM.

Gravlee, Mari↗

DOE OSTI2021

sCO 2 Brayton Energy Conversion Customer Discovery

All energy production systems need efficient energy conversion systems. Current Rankine cycles use water to generate steam at temperatures where efficiency is limited to around 40%. As existing fossil and nuclear power plants are decommissioned due to end of effective life and/or societies’ desire for cleaner generation options, more efficient energy conversion is needed to keep up with increasing electricity demands. Modern energy generation technologies, such as advanced nuclear reactors and concentrated solar, coupled to high efficiency sCO 2 conversion systems provide a solution to efficient, clean energy systems. Leading R&D communities worldwide agree that the successful development of sCO 2 Brayton power cycle technology will eventually bring about large-scale changes to existing multi-billion-dollar global markets and enable power applications not currently possible or economically justifiable. However, all new technologies face challenges in the path to commercialization and the electricity sector is distinctively risk averse. The Sandia sCO 2 Brayton team needs to better understand what the electricity sector needs in terms of new technology risk mitigation, generation efficiency, reliability improvements above current technology, and cost requirements which would make new technology adoption worthwhile. Relying on the R&D community consensus that a sCO 2 power cycle will increase the revenue of the electrical industry, without addressing the electrical industry’s concerns, significantly decreases the potential for adoption at commercial scale. With a clear understanding of the market perspectives on technology adoption, including military, private sector, and utilities customers, the Sandia Brayton Team can resolve industry concerns for smoother development and faster transition to commercialization. An extensive customer discovery process, similar to that executed through the NSF’s I-Corp program, is necessary in order to understand the pain points of the market and articulate the value proposition of Brayton systems in terms that engage decision makers and facilitate commercialization of the technology.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Supercritical Carbon Dioxide Primary Power Large-Scale Pilot Plant

The United States electrical power generation fleet encompasses a wide range of technologies, ranging from traditional combustion-based power generation, to nuclear power, to renewable energy. While the distribution of these assets continues to shift due to economic and regulatory influences, coal combustion continues to be a key part of the US energy portfolio. Despite the relative maturity of coal combustion technology, improvements in overall fuel-to-power efficiency and generation flexibility are still possible and will improve both the economic and environmental factors of coal combustion. Echogen Power Systems proposes to lead a world-class team including the University of Missouri, Electric Power Research Institute and Louis Perry Associates in the design, construction and operation of a 10MWe coal-fired supercritical carbon dioxide (sCO 2 ) large-scale pilot. This transformational technology uses sCO 2 as a working fluid instead of water to achieve high thermodynamic efficiencies that can significantly exceed advanced steam-Rankine cycles. Further, the compact nature of sCO 2 turbomachinery offers capital cost and footprint advantages, and the low maintenance of a water-free power cycle can significantly reduce operation and maintenance (O&M) costs over conventional steam-Rankine systems. Recent integration studies of sCO 2 with coal combustion power plants highlight the significant improvements in plant efficiency that sCO 2 can offer relative to even advanced steam Rankine cycles. At commercial scales, coal-sCO 2 plant net efficiency is predicted to be 39-44.0% (HHV), or 10-20% higher output than conventional steam-Rankine systems, which will significantly improve the competitiveness of coal-fired generation. This proposal builds upon projects previously funded by the Department of Energy, including DE-FE0025959 (High-Efficiency Thermal Integration of Closed Supercritical CO 2 Brayton Power Cycles with Oxy-Fired Heaters) and DE-NE0008470 (Conceptual Design for sCO 2 Power Cycle Test Facility). An appropriately-scaled and properly designed and operated pilot project is essential to overcome the natural risk-aversion of the power generation industry and project financing community. The 10 MWe coal-fired sCO 2 pilot power plant proposed herein will reduce the technical and economic risk of this transformational technology, enabling commercial deployment at the conclusion of the project. For the second phase of this project, Echogen lead a team that completed and refined the pilot system conceptual system and key component designs resulting in the completion of a front-end-engineering-design (FEED) study, completed the NEPA review process, completed the permitting process for construction and operation, refined the techno-economic analysis of the proposed system at commercial scale and received commitments for Phase III cost share. The end result of the program will be to demonstrate the technical and economic superiority of the sCO 2 power cycle for coal-fired operation. Major risk elements will have been retired with sufficient operation at high power to enable the power generation industry to move forward with the first commercial deployment of this transformational system.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

NASA NTRS2013

Risk-Constrained Dynamic Programming for Optimal Mars Entry, Descent, and Landing

A chance-constrained dynamic programming algorithm was developed that is capable of making optimal sequential decisions within a user-specified risk bound. This work handles stochastic uncertainties over multiple stages in the CEMAT (Combined EDL-Mobility Analyses Tool) framework. It was demonstrated by a simulation of Mars entry, descent, and landing (EDL) using real landscape data obtained from the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter. Although standard dynamic programming (DP) provides a general framework for optimal sequential decisionmaking under uncertainty, it typically achieves risk aversion by imposing an arbitrary penalty on failure states. Such a penalty-based approach cannot explicitly bound the probability of mission failure. A key idea behind the new approach is called risk allocation, which decomposes a joint chance constraint into a set of individual chance constraints and distributes risk over them. The joint chance constraint was reformulated into a constraint on an expectation over a sum of an indicator function, which can be incorporated into the cost function by dualizing the optimization problem. As a result, the chance-constraint optimization problem can be turned into an unconstrained optimization over a Lagrangian, which can be solved efficiently using a standard DP approach.

Ono, Masahiro↗

NASA NTRS2005

A Lengthy Career's Lessons on Risk

I BECAME A PROJECT MANAGER AT AGE TWENTY-TWO AT Eglin Air Force Base. I managed the droning of the B47 to fly unmanned, and 1 had zero experience to take on that task. What 1 learned is the real way you acquire risk aversion: 1 was scared to death that I d fail. This developed a characteristic that 1 carried with me throughout my career. The strongest thing a project leader can feel, in terms of risk, is the risk of failing. So I took it upon myself to learn everything about the airplane and the guidance control system by searching out the best in the aerospace community. At that time, Lockheed was doing a modification of the aircraft. Boeing designed and built the aircraft, and Sperry was doing the guidance control system. I made sure that I spent hours and hours with each of them to understand exactly what 1 was responsible for.

Guastaferro, Angelo↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Multi-Stage Stochastic Risk Assessment With Markovian Representation of Renewable Power

Probabilistic forecasts provide a distribution of possible outputs and so can capture the uncertainty and variability of Variable Renewable Energy (VRE). However, taking advantage of uncertainty information has practical challenges that make it difficult to integrate probabilistic forecasting into control room decision-making. This paper proposes a novel use-case for probabilistic forecasts by incorporating them into the hour-ahead operations for situational awareness via a risk-averse multi-stage stochastic program. We employ a Markovian representation of the probabilistic forecasts that enables the formulation of the multi-stage problem and avoids a scenario generation phase. We test the model on a realistically sized system to assess risk and showcase the capability of using probabilistic renewable forecast as input to produce probabilistic output forecasts of future system states. The results show that the model can capture time consistency in the reserves and Area Control Error (ACE) forecast. The solution times are adequate for risk profiling in hour-ahead timescales.

forecasting↗

DOE OSTI2023

Rethinking the Price Formation Problem–Part 2: Rewarding Flexibility and Managing Price Risk

In this study, part 1 of this two-part paper describes the impact that uncertainty has on the design and analysis of price formation policies in the non-convex auctions conducted by U.S. wholesale electricity market operators. Using first a toy model and then a large-scale test system, Part 2 demonstrates the difference in prices under the idealized benchmark of ex ante convex hull pricing defined in Part 1 versus existing methods, in particular documenting the potential for suppression of volatility and therefore under-compensation of flexibility by existing methods. The examples highlight that inefficient spot price formation can induce inefficient forward commitments of generators, necessitating out-of-market intervention to restore a reliable and efficient operating plan.Given the potential side effects of existing policies for investment and operation, we suggest two elements in a reoriented approach to the price formation problem: first ensuring that prices exhibit full-strength volatility, and second ensuring that risk-averse market participants have sufficient ability to manage this volatility.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS2018

NASA Electronic Parts and Packaging (NEPP) Program: Resources for SmallSats on EEE Parts

From the outside looking in, the NEPP program supports NASA's traditional approach to providing electrical, electronic, and electromechanical (EEE) assurance for space missions. Standards (military and commercial) for EEE parts are based on risk averse methodologies, drive higher costs and schedules, and, in general, provide devices that significantly lag behind commercial devices in performance aspects (speed, power efficiency, etc...). This is NOT the model most small missions realistically can use. However, when you look behind the curtain, NEPP has been considering the risk trade space for small missions for over five years and has consistently provided resources that the small mission regime would find useful. In this paper, we provide a brief overview of these resources as well as NEPP's current research/development efforts that are relevant. While we'll primarily discuss radiation assurance related issues such as data availability and usage, assurances processes for not only the radiation effects side, but also the EEE parts reliability will be touched upon.

Electrical↗