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Microbial Anomalies Encountered on the International Space Station
Microorganisms in our living environments are unavoidable. A community of microbes arrived in space with the delivery of the first element of the International Space Station (ISS), attached to hardware and on the bodies of the humans tasked with the initial assembly missions. The risk that microorganisms could cause adverse effects in the health of both the human occupants of the ISS as well as the physical integrity of the station environment and life support systems has been both a driver and a function of engineering and operational controls. Scientists and engineers at NASA have gone to extensive measures to control microbial growth at levels safe for the crewmembers and the spacecraft environment. Many of these measures were initiated with the design of the spacecraft and its systems. Materials used in the ISS were tested for resistance to fungi, such as mold and a paint with a fungus-killing chemical was also used. Controlling the humidity of the air in the Station is also an effective way of discouraging microbe growth. The breathing air is reconditioned by the Environmental Control Life Support System (ECLSS) prior to distribution, utilizing High Efficiency Particulate Air (HEPA) filtration. Requirements restricting the accumulation of water condensate in the air handlers and habitable volume of the ISS were other safeguards added. Water for drinking and food rehydration is disinfected or filtered. A robust in-flight housekeeping regimen for the ISS significantly reduces inappropriate growth of microorganisms and includes a regular cleaning of accessible surfaces with disinfectant wipes. Most of these requirements were suggested by microbiologists to mitigate and possibly prevent many microbiological risks. In addition to these controls, before flight monitoring and analyses of the cabin air, exposed surfaces, water and food, consumables, and crew members are conducted to mitigate microbial risk to the crew and spacecraft. Many microbial risks are much easier to identify and resolve before launch than during space flight. Although the focus has been on prevention of microbiologically related, not all problems can be anticipated. A number of microbial anomalies have occurred on ISS. This paper will discuss the occurrences, root-cause investigations, and mitigation steps taken to remediate the contamination.
Evolution and Implementation of the NASA Robotic Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis Concept of Operations
Reacting to potential on-orbit collision risk in an operational environment requires timely and accurate communication and exchange of data, information, and analysis to ensure informed decision-making for safety of flight and responsible use of the shared space environment. To accomplish this mission, it is imperative that all stakeholders effectively manage resources: devoting necessary and potentially intensive resource commitment to responding to high-risk conjunction events and preventing unnecessary expenditure of resources on events of low collision risk. After 10 years of operational experience, the NASA Robotic Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) is modifying its Concept of Operations (CONOPS) to ensure this alignment of collision risk and resource management. This evolution manifests itself in the approach to characterizing, reporting, and refining of collision risk. Implementation of this updated CONOPS is expected to have a demonstrated improvement on the efficacy of JSpOC, CARA, and owner/operator resources.
Frequency of Atrial Septal Aneurysms in Patients with Cerebral Ischemic Events
Background-Atrial septal aneurysm (ASA) is a putative risk factor for cardioembolism. However, the frequency of ASA in the general population has not been adequately determined. Therefore, the frequency in patients with cerebral ischemic events, compared with the frequency in the general population, is poorly defined. We sought to determine the frequency of ASA in the general population and to compare the frequency of ASA in patients with cerebral ischemic events with the frequency in the general population. Methods and Results-The frequency of ASA in the population was determined in 363 subjects, a sample of the participants in the Stroke Prevention: Assessment of Risk in a Community study (control subjects), and was compared with the frequency in 355 age- and sex-matched patients undergoing transesophageal echocardiography in search of a cardiac source of embolism after a focal cerebral ischemic event. The proportion with ASA was 7.9% in patients versus 2.2% in control subjects (P=0.002; odds ratio of ASA, 3.65; 95% CI, 1.64 to 8.13, in patients versus control subjects). Patent foramen ovale (PFO) was detected with contrast injections in 56% of subjects with ASA. The presence of ASA predicted the presence of PFO (odds ratio of PFO, 4.57; 95% CI, 2.18 to 9.57, in subjects with versus those without ASA). In 86% of subjects with ASA and cerebral ischemia, transesophageal echocardiography did not detect an alternative source of cardioembolism other than an associated PFO. Conclusions-The prevalence of ASA based on this population-based study is 2.2%. The frequency of ASA is relatively higher in patients evaluated with transesophageal echocardiography after a cerebral ischemic event. ASA is frequently associated with PFO, suggesting paradoxical embolism as a mechanism of cardioembolism. In patients with cerebral ischemia and ASA, ASA (with or without PFO) commonly is the only potential cardioembolic source detected with transesophageal echocardiography.
Extravehicular Activity on the Lunar Surface: Mapping Mitigation Risk Consequence for Crew Needing Assistance or Rescue
The lunar environment offers unique challenges for human health and safety over the course of performing Extravehicular Activities (EVAs) during early Artemis missions. Driver medical conditions leading to an injured EVA crewmember needing assistance or rescue were analyzed and correlated to established, defined consequence categories. Catastrophic Drivers were identified, and three mitigation strategies were analyzed to determine if there was a potential change in consequence with their application. Risk consequence across the mitigations were compared with each other and the original risk without mitigations. Mitigations were further evaluated in a broader context with prospective preventions to understand the design and risk trade space associated with an early Artemis EVA.
Extravehicular Activity on the Lunar Surface: Mapping Mitigation Risk Consequence for Crew Needing Assistance or Rescue
The lunar environment offers unique challenges for human health and safety over the course of performing Extravehicular Activities (EVAs) during early Artemis missions. Driver medical conditions leading to an injured EVA crewmember needing assistance or rescue were analyzed and correlated to established, defined consequence categories. Catastrophic Drivers were identified, and three mitigation strategies were analyzed to determine if there was a potential change in consequence with their application. Risk consequence across the mitigations were compared with each other and the original risk without mitigations. Mitigations were further evaluated in a broader context with prospective preventions to understand the design and risk trade space associated with an early Artemis EVA.
Bone Quest - A Space-Based Science and Health Education Unit
This proposal addresses the need for effective and innovative science and health education materials that focus on space bone biology and its implications for bone health on Earth. The focus of these materials, bone biology and health, will increase science knowledge as well as health awareness. Current investigations of the bone loss observed after long-duration space missions provide a link between studies of bone health in space, and studies of osteoporosis, a disease characterized by bone loss and progressive skeletal weakness. The overall goal of this project is to design and develop web-based and print-based materials for high school science students, that will address the following: a) knowledge of normal bone biology and bone biology in a microgravity environment; b) knowledge of osteoporosis; c) knowledge of treatment modalities for space- and Earth-based bone loss; and d} bone-related nutrition knowledge and behavior. To this end, we propose to design and develop a Bone Biology Tutorial which will instruct students about normal bone biology, bone biology in a microgravity environment, osteoporosis - its definition, detection, risk factors, and prevention, treatment modalities for space- and Earth-based bone loss, and the importance of nutrition in bone health. Particular emphasis will be placed on current trends in . adolescent nutrition, and their relationships to bone health. Additionally, we propose to design and develop two interactive nutrition/health ' education activities that will allow students to apply the information provided in the Bone Biology Tutorial. In the first, students will apply constructs provided in the Bone Biology Tutorial to design "Bone Health Plans" for space travelers.
Report of the Workshop for Life Detection in Samples from Mars
The question of whether there is or was life on Mars has been one of the most pivotal since Schiaparellis' telescopic observations of the red planet. With the advent of the space age, this question can be addressed directly by exploring the surface of Mars and by bringing samples to Earth for analysis. The latter, however, is not free of problems. Life can be found virtually everywhere on Earth. Hence the potential for contaminating the Mars samples and compromising their scientific integrity is not negligible. Conversely, if life is present in samples from Mars, this may represent a potential source of extraterrestrial biological contamination for Earth. A range of measures and policies, collectively termed 'planetary protection', are employed to minimise risks and thereby prevent undesirable consequences for the terrestrial biosphere. This report documents discussions and conclusions from a workshop held in 2012, which followed a public conference focused on current capabilities for performing life-detection studies on Mars samples. The workshop focused on the evaluation of Mars samples that would maximise scientific productivity and inform decision making in the context of planetary protection. Workshop participants developed a strong consensus that the same measurements could be employed to effectively inform both science and planetary protection, when applied in the context of two competing hypotheses: 1) that there is no detectable life in the samples; or 2) that there is martian life in the samples. Participants then outlined a sequence for sample processing and defined analytical methods that would test these hypotheses. They also identified critical developments to enable the analysis of samples from Mars.
PROBABALISTIC RISK ANALYSIS AND THERMAL MARGIN PROCESS FOR AN INFLATABLE AEROSHELL
Atmospheric entry vehicle thermal protection systems (TPS) are margined due to the uncertainties that exist in entry aeroheating environments and the thermal response of the materials and structures. Traditional approaches typically over-margin TPS and offer very little insight into the risk of over-temperature during flight. A probabilistic margin process can be used to apply thermal margin to an aeroshell based on a rigorously calculated risk of failure. This probabilistic margin process allows engineers to make informed aeroshell design, entry-trajectory modifications, and risk trades while preventing excessive margin from being applied. This methodology can also be applied to other TPS applications, hot structures, and other engineering disciplines.
The Search for Extant Life on Mars as a Focusing Scientific Goal for Future Human Exploration Missions
A search for evidence of extant life on Mars provides a focusing goal for human exploration missions that are planned for the 2030s. Finding an example of extant life beyond Earth would be one of the greatest scientific discoveries of all time. Human exploration brings extraordinary improvements over robotic missions in both payload and analytical capability. Environments that may be habitable for modern life on Mars include salts and brines, ground ice, caves, and deep subsurface aquifers [Carrier et al. 2020]. The habitability case for each environment is reviewed as well as how human missions may enable the search. It is important to determine if life exists on Mars prior to human exploration activities to prevent both the risk to Earth of inadvertently bringing potentially harmful organisms from Mars, risks to astronaut health, and the complication of recognizing Mars life once terrestrial contamination has occurred.
LOFTID Aeroshell Thermal Response Uncertainty Analysis Utilizing the End-to-End Monte Carlo Approach
A probabilistic thermal margin process has been performed to design the flexible thermal protection system (FTPS) and select entry trajectory constraints given an acceptable risk level for the Low-Earth Orbit Flight Test of and Inflatable Decelerator (LOFTID) project. Uncertainties exist in atmospheric entry aeroheating environments and the predicted thermal response of thermal protection system (TPS) material. Entry vehicle TPS is often over-sized to mitigate uncertainty by combining conservative bounding scenarios together. The probabilistic thermal margin process allows engineers to make informed aeroshell design, flight design, and FTPS performance risk trades while preventing excessive FTPS margin from being applied. This paper describes the uncertainty analysis methodology used to carry out a probabilistic thermal margin process used for LOFTID’s aeroshell and explains how the calculated probability of exceeding flight allowable temperatures is used to design the FTPS and establish nominal flight design constraints. This probabilistic thermal margin process had never been applied to entry, decent, and landing design for a flown entry vehicle and it is one of the LOFTID project’s goals to demonstrate its merits.
Peru Health and Air Quality II: Leveraging Earth Observations and Health Data to Map Outbreak Risk and Inform Public Health Interventions for Zoonotic Disease Prevention
Peru's Madre de Dios region is a hotspot for dengue fever and leishmaniasis due to its tropical Amazonian climate. Though treatable, these zoonotic diseases are debilitating for under-resourced communities whose already close proximity to mosquito and sandfly vectors continues to increase via rapid urbanization and deforestation. Peru’s Ministries of Health (MINSA) and Environment (MINAM) are working to better understand the environmental factors amplifying the risk of dengue fever and leishmaniasis transmission. The first term of this project classified the land use and land cover of Madre de Dios’ 11 districts for 2010, 2015, and 2020 and identified a correlation between both diseases and urbanization. Our team expanded this analysis by creating urban-forest edge maps and incorporating climatic and topographic variables with data from Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+), Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG), and the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM). We determined these variables’ impacts on disease incidence by assessing existing literature and running regression models. Dengue fever correlated with urban-forest edge, urban area, slope, temperature, and precipitation. Leishmaniasis primarily correlated with forest-edge area and elevation, but lacking additional statistical significance prevented further work, a decision supported by the literature. Thus, the risk matrix and risk map which we scripted in R to visualize the risk of disease posed to districts alongside health post locations addresses only dengue fever. The results and products will inform MINSA and MINAM in public health interventions, resource distribution, and policy initiatives.
NASA System Safety Handbook: System Safety Framework and Concepts for Implementation - Volume 1
System safety assessment is defined in NPR 8715.3C, NASA General Safety Program Requirements as a disciplined, systematic approach to the analysis of risks resulting from hazards that can affect humans, the environment, and mission assets. Achievement of the highest practicable degree of system safety is one of NASA's highest priorities. Traditionally, system safety assessment at NASA and elsewhere has focused on the application of a set of safety analysis tools to identify safety risks and formulate effective controls.1 Familiar tools used for this purpose include various forms of hazard analyses, failure modes and effects analyses, and probabilistic safety assessment (commonly also referred to as probabilistic risk assessment (PRA)). In the past, it has been assumed that to show that a system is safe, it is sufficient to provide assurance that the process for identifying the hazards has been as comprehensive as possible and that each identified hazard has one or more associated controls. The NASA Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel (ASAP) has made several statements in its annual reports supporting a more holistic approach. In 2006, it recommended that "... a comprehensive risk assessment, communication and acceptance process be implemented to ensure that overall launch risk is considered in an integrated and consistent manner." In 2009, it advocated for "... a process for using a risk-informed design approach to produce a design that is optimally and sufficiently safe." As a rationale for the latter advocacy, it stated that "... the ASAP applauds switching to a performance-based approach because it emphasizes early risk identification to guide designs, thus enabling creative design approaches that might be more efficient, safer, or both." For purposes of this preface, it is worth mentioning three areas where the handbook emphasizes a more holistic type of thinking. First, the handbook takes the position that it is important to not just focus on risk on an individual basis but to consider measures of aggregate safety risk and to ensure wherever possible that there be quantitative measures for evaluating how effective the controls are in reducing these aggregate risks. The term aggregate risk, when used in this handbook, refers to the accumulation of risks from individual scenarios that lead to a shortfall in safety performance at a high level: e.g., an excessively high probability of loss of crew, loss of mission, planetary contamination, etc. Without aggregated quantitative measures such as these, it is not reasonable to expect that safety has been optimized with respect to other technical and programmatic objectives. At the same time, it is fully recognized that not all sources of risk are amenable to precise quantitative analysis and that the use of qualitative approaches and bounding estimates may be appropriate for those risk sources. Second, the handbook stresses the necessity of developing confidence that the controls derived for the purpose of achieving system safety not only handle risks that have been identified and properly characterized but also provide a general, more holistic means for protecting against unidentified or uncharacterized risks. For example, while it is not possible to be assured that all credible causes of risk have been identified, there are defenses that can provide protection against broad categories of risks and thereby increase the chances that individual causes are contained. Third, the handbook strives at all times to treat uncertainties as an integral aspect of risk and as a part of making decisions. The term "uncertainty" here does not refer to an actuarial type of data analysis, but rather to a characterization of our state of knowledge regarding results from logical and physical models that approximate reality. Uncertainty analysis finds how the output parameters of the models are related to plausible variations in the input parameters and in the modeling assumptions. The evaluation of unrtainties represents a method of probabilistic thinking wherein the analyst and decision makers recognize possible outcomes other than the outcome perceived to be "most likely." Without this type of analysis, it is not possible to determine the worth of an analysis product as a basis for making decisions related to safety and mission success. In line with these considerations the handbook does not take a hazard-analysis-centric approach to system safety. Hazard analysis remains a useful tool to facilitate brainstorming but does not substitute for a more holistic approach geared to a comprehensive identification and understanding of individual risk issues and their contributions to aggregate safety risks. The handbook strives to emphasize the importance of identifying the most critical scenarios that contribute to the risk of not meeting the agreed-upon safety objectives and requirements using all appropriate tools (including but not limited to hazard analysis). Thereafter, emphasis shifts to identifying the risk drivers that cause these scenarios to be critical and ensuring that there are controls directed toward preventing or mitigating the risk drivers. To address these and other areas, the handbook advocates a proactive, analytic-deliberative, risk-informed approach to system safety, enabling the integration of system safety activities with systems engineering and risk management processes. It emphasizes how one can systematically provide the necessary evidence to substantiate the claim that a system is safe to within an acceptable risk tolerance, and that safety has been achieved in a cost-effective manner. The methodology discussed in this handbook is part of a systems engineering process and is intended to be integral to the system safety practices being conducted by the NASA safety and mission assurance and systems engineering organizations. The handbook posits that to conclude that a system is adequately safe, it is necessary to consider a set of safety claims that derive from the safety objectives of the organization. The safety claims are developed from a hierarchy of safety objectives and are therefore hierarchical themselves. Assurance that all the claims are true within acceptable risk tolerance limits implies that all of the safety objectives have been satisfied, and therefore that the system is safe. The acceptable risk tolerance limits are provided by the authority who must make the decision whether or not to proceed to the next step in the life cycle. These tolerances are therefore referred to as the decision maker's risk tolerances. In general, the safety claims address two fundamental facets of safety: 1) whether required safety thresholds or goals have been achieved, and 2) whether the safety risk is as low as possible within reasonable impacts on cost, schedule, and performance. The latter facet includes consideration of controls that are collective in nature (i.e., apply generically to broad categories of risks) and thereby provide protection against unidentified or uncharacterized risks.
Texas Disasters II: Utilizing NASA Earth Observations to Assist the Texas Forest Service in Mapping and Analyzing Fuel Loads and Phenology in Texas Grasslands
The risk of severe wildfires in Texas has been related to weather phenomena such as climate change and recent urban expansion into wild land areas. During recent years, Texas wild land areas have experienced sequences of wet and dry years that have contributed to increased wildfire risk and frequency. To prevent and contain wildfires, the Texas Forest Service (TFS) is tasked with evaluating and reducing potential fire risk to better manage and distribute resources. This task is made more difficult due to the vast and varied landscape of Texas. The TFS assesses fire risk by understanding vegetative fuel types and fuel loads. To better assist the TFS, NASA Earth observations, including Landsat and Moderate Resolution Imaging Specrtoradiometer (MODIS) data, were analyzed to produce maps of vegetation type and specific vegetation phenology as it related to potential wildfire fuel loads. Fuel maps from 2010-2011 and 2014-2015 fire seasons, created by the Texas Disasters I project, were used and provided alternating, complementary map indicators of wildfire risk in Texas. The TFS will utilize the end products and capabilities to evaluate and better understand wildfire risk across Texas.
Bioastronautics Roadmap: A Risk Reduction Strategy for Human Space Exploration
The Bioastronautics Critical Path Roadmap is the framework used to identify and assess the risks to crews exposed to the hazardous environments of space. It guides the implementation of research strategies to prevent or reduce those risks. Although the BCPR identifies steps that must be taken to reduce the risks to health and performance that are associated with human space flight, the BCPR is not a "critical path" analysis in the strict engineering sense. The BCPR will evolve to accommodate new information and technology development and will enable NASA to conduct a formal critical path analysis in the future. As a management tool, the BCPR provides information for making informed decisions about research priorities and resource allocation. The outcome-driven nature of the BCPR makes it amenable for assessing the focus, progress and success of the Bioastronautics research and technology program. The BCPR is also a tool for communicating program priorities and progress to the research community and NASA management.
Risk Assessment Overview
Risk assessment is used in many industries to identify and manage risks. Initially developed for use on aeronautical and nuclear systems, risk assessment has been applied to transportation, chemical, computer, financial, and security systems among others. It is used to gain an understanding of the weaknesses or vulnerabilities in a system so modification can be made to increase operability, efficiency, and safety and to reduce failure and down-time. Risk assessment results are primary inputs to risk-informed decision making; where risk information including uncertainty is used along with other pertinent information to assist management in the decision-making process. Therefore, to be useful, a risk assessment must be directed at specific objectives. As the world embraces the globalization of trade and manufacturing, understanding the associated risk become important to decision making. Applying risk assessment techniques to a global system of development, manufacturing, and transportation can provide insight into how the system can fail, the likelihood of system failure and the consequences of system failure. The risk assessment can identify those elements that contribute most to risk and identify measures to prevent and mitigate failures, disruptions, and damaging outcomes. In addition, risk associated with public and environment impact can be identified. The risk insights gained can be applied to making decisions concerning suitable development and manufacturing locations, supply chains, and transportation strategies. While risk assessment has been mostly applied to mechanical and electrical systems, the concepts and techniques can be applied across other systems and activities. This paper provides a basic overview of the development of a risk assessment.
GO/NO-GO - When is medical hazard mitigation acceptable for launch?
Medical support of spaceflight missions is composed of complex tasks and decisions that dedicated to maintaining the health and performance of the crew and the completion of mission objectives. Spacecraft represent one of the most complex vehicles built by humans, and are built to very rigorous design specifications. In the course of a Flight Readiness Review (FRR) or a mission itself, the flight surgeon must be able to understand the impact of hazards and risks that may not be completely mitigated by design alone. Some hazards are not mitigated because they are never actually identified. When a hazard is identified, it must be reduced or waivered. Hazards that cannot be designed out of the vehicle or mission, are usually mitigated through other means to bring the residual risk to an acceptable level. This is possible in most engineered systems because failure modes are usually predictable and analysis can include taking these systems to failure. Medical support of space missions is complicated by the inability of flight surgeons to provide "exact" hazard and risk numbers to the NASA engineering community. Taking humans to failure is not an option. Furthermore, medical dogma is mostly comprised of "medical prevention" strategies that mitigate risk by examining the behaviour of a cohort of humans similar to astronauts. Unfortunately, this approach does not lend itself well for predicting the effect of a hazard in the unique environment of space. This presentation will discuss how Medical Operations uses an evidence-based approach to decide if hazard mitigation strategies are adequate to reduce mission risk to acceptable levels. Case studies to be discussed will include: 1. Risk of electrocution risk during EVA 2. Risk of cardiac event risk during long and short duration missions 3. Degraded cabin environmental monitoring on the ISS. Learning Objectives 1.) The audience will understand the challenges of mitigating medical risk caused by nominal and off-nominal mission events. 2.) The audience will understand the process by which medical hazards are identified and mitigated before launch. 3.) The audience will understand the roles and responsibilities of all the other flight control positions in participating in the process of reducing hazards and reducing medical risk to an acceptable level.
Assessing Land Cover Change Dynamics in the Peruvian Amazon to Map Outbreak Risk and Inform Public Health Interventions for Zoonotic Disease Prevention
Dengue fever and leishmaniasis are two tropical diseases prevalent in Madre de Dios Region of Peru and have been associated with urbanization and road construction. Rapid land use changes such as mining, timber harvesting, and hydroelectric dam development lead to denser human presence in previously sparsely-populated areas which increases the proximity of human settlements to zoonotic disease vectors. In partnership with the Peruvian Ministries of Health (MINSA), the Environment (MINAM), and other in-country collaborators, a NASA DEVELOP team examined Land Use Land Cover (LULC) changes and reported dengue and leishmaniasis incidence in the Madre de Dios region. This sought to help MINSA and MINAM understand the spatial relationship between land use change and zoonotic disease incidence. We created a LULC classification script using Google Earth Engine (GEE) with Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM) and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) imagery to classify land cover in 2010, 2015, and 2020 and evaluate changes over this time period. The team then compared the quantified results of the LULC assessment in conjunction with reported disease cases to evaluate disease incidence and key land cover changes across Madre de Dios’s 11 districts. Follow on work will use these products to develop more detailed outbreak risk maps. These products will allow MINSA, MINAM, and other partners to understand hotspots of land cover change in Peru and the relationship with outbreaks to inform public health decision makers and environmental policy.