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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Impact of Pressure-Dependent Interfacial Tension and Contact Angle on Capillary Heterogeneity Trapping of CO2 in Storage Aquifers

Summary Carbon dioxide (CO2) capillary trapping increases the total amount of CO2 that can be effectively immobilized in storage aquifers. This trapping, manifesting itself as accumulated CO2 columns at a continuum scale, is because of capillary threshold effects that occur below low-permeability barriers. Considering that capillary pressure is dictated by heterogeneous pore throat size, the trapped CO2 column height and associated CO2 saturation will vary spatially within a storage aquifer. This variation will be influenced by two pressure-dependent interfacial parameters—CO2/brine interfacial tension (IFT) and CO2/brine/rock contact angle. Our objective is to understand how the pressure dependence of these two parameters affects the heterogeneity of capillary trapped CO2 at a continuum scale. Our conceptual model is a 1D two-zone system with the upper zone being a flow barrier (low permeability) and the lower zone being a flow path (high permeability). The inputs to this model include microfacies-dependent capillary pressure vs. saturation curves and permeability values. The input capillary pressure curves were collected in the literature that represents carbonate microfacies (e.g., dolograinstone) in a prevalent formation in the Permian Basin. We then used the Leverett j-function to scale the capillary pressure curve for the two zones that are assigned with the same or different microfacies. During scaling, we considered the influence of pressure on both the IFT and contact angle of CO2/brine/dolomite systems. We varied the zone permeability contrast ratio from 2 to 50. We then assumed capillary gravity equilibriums and calculated the CO2 saturation buildup corresponding to various trapped CO2 column heights. The CO2 saturation buildup is defined as the CO2 saturation in the lower layer minus that in the upper one. We found that the saturation buildup can be doubled when varying pressure in a storage aquifer, after considering pressure-dependent IFT and contact angles. Thus, assuming these two parameters to be constant across such aquifers would cause large errors in the quantification of capillary trapping of CO2. The whole study demonstrates the importance of considering pressure-dependent interfacial properties in predicting the vertical distribution of capillary trapped CO2. It has important implications in developing a better understanding of leakage risks and consequent storage safety.

Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2025

PyTUQ: Python Toolkit for Uncertainty Quantification

SAND2025-03661O PyTUQ is a user-friendly software toolkit designed to help researchers and professionals understand and manage uncertainty in several scientific fields. By providing tools for analyzing how uncertainties affect outcomes, PyTUQ can be applied in areas such as energy production, and biology. Its unique approach allows users to make more informed decisions by assessing risks and improving predictions. Whether you're studying combustion processes or exploring complex biological systems, PyTUQ empowers you to gain deeper insights and enhance the reliability of your results. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

SciDAC↗
DOE OSTI2024

Nuclear safety Enhanced: A Deep dive into current and future RAVEN applications

As the horizon of nuclear energy expands with the advent of small modular reactors, IV generation reactors, and fusion reactors, there is a growing perspective that the licensing process could benefit from a more comprehensive approach. Moving beyond traditional deterministic and PRA analysis might pave the way for a novel safety analysis paradigm propelled by the increasing computational power at our disposal. This paper explores different methodologies that can improve the outcomes of nuclear safety analysis. These range from uncertainty quantification techniques, aimed at enhancing the precision of safety margins, to deploying dynamic event trees by driving system code simulations, capturing the potential evolutions of severe accidents. These methodologies introduce innovative dimensions to safety analysis, considering the consequences of postulated events and the dynamics of accident sequences. However, they also bring forth challenges, especially in managing the complexity and sheer volume of potential scenarios. The paper touches upon some strategies to counter these challenges, emphasizing the importance of adaptability and continuous evolution in the face of emerging nuclear safety concerns. Additionally, the paper sheds light on the need for advanced tools to apply these methodologies. Among these tools is RAVEN, an open-source software designed for parametric and probabilistic analyses. Its core components, including distribution, sampler, and reduced order model, enable various applications, from risk assessment and mitigation to dynamic learning and plant control logic simulations.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty quantification in MELCOR Safety analysis of ARIES reactor designs

MELCOR-TMAP is a combined thermal-hydraulics and tritium tracking code developed to simulate severe accident scenarios in fission and fusion power plants. Here, we demonstrate the results of MELCOR-TMAP analyses on historical ARIES program reference designs. By coupling MELCOR-TMAP with the open source RAVEN probabilistic risk analysis framework’s Bayesian UQ capabilities, we also demonstrate key uncertainties in material properties with the highest impact on tritium inventory and plant risk.

70 - PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Impact of representative ground motion level on seismic PSA with the boundary between overestimation and underestimation

One commonly used approach in seismic probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) is the discrete method. This method follows the standard PSA framework and can be applied to various models, such as multi-unit models, while reducing computational costs using standard software. However, due to the inability to subdivide intervals infinitely, the discrete method approximates with a finite number of subintervals. In practice, different numbers of subintervals are applied, and the representative ground motion level is selected based on expert judgment. When employing a smaller number of subintervals, it is important to take caution to prevent underestimation. This study analyzes the impact of the representative ground motion level on seismic risk. It confirms that underestimation can occur with a small number of subintervals depending on the representative ground motion level. This study also proposes a method for determining the boundary of underestimation and overestimation. The method is demonstrated through examples, providing a mathematical foundation for selecting appropriate representative ground motion levels. By avoiding underestimation, this research helps prevent the oversight of significant risk contributors and enhances the understanding of seismic risk.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2026

A review of energy storage for power system resilience: Functions, metrics, and applications

Aging infrastructure, increasing operational complexity, and surging electricity demand from artificial intelligence and electrification are straining the grid and heightening the risks of disruptions, making resilience a critical priority. Energy storage is increasingly deployed to provide critical power supply, fast grid support, and rapid restoration. However, current practice lacks consistent metrics and systematic methodologies to rigorously quantify the resilience benefits of storage. This paper provides a comprehensive review of energy storage in resilience enhancement, focusing on functional roles, quantification metrics, and integration strategies. A structured resilience metrics library is compiled and categorized to encompass both technical and economic performance aspects. Existing methodologies for resilience-oriented storage planning and operations are critically examined. Key technical and practical challenges are identified, and future research directions are outlined to strengthen storage contributions to grid resilience.

Benefit quantification↗
DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty quantification of a physics-informed model based on sparse identification of a Thermal Energy Distribution System

Integrated energy systems (IES)s are crucial for enhancing the economy and efficiency of power generation sources (e.g., nuclear energy) necessary to unleash American energy dominance. These systems can be integrated with thermal energy storage (TES) and intermittent renewable energies to optimize overall energy use, peak-load regulation, and demand-side responses. However, the stabilization of energy generation, transport, and utilization introduces operational complexities that exceed the challenges of managing each sub-component individually. Currently, though IESs rely on human operators for efficiency and stability, reducing human error risk and enhancing performance through automation is highly desirable. Recent advances at Idaho National Laboratory have demonstrated successful control of the Thermal Energy Distributed System (TEDS). However, the automatic control system depends on a deterministic Sparse Identification of Nonlinear Dynamics with Control (SINDyC) model, which are trained based on simulation data from physics-based simulations. Because of uncertainties in physics-based simulation, SINDyC model results in large discrepancies against experimental data and cannot be reliably used in automatic control. In this paper, we present an innovative approach to address these discrepancies by quantifying uncertainties and developing a more robust model. We first generated trajectories by using first-principles physics codes to encapsulate the experiment. Next, we trained thousands of models by randomly sampling these trajectories. We then collapsed all those models into one probabilistic SINDyC by fitting a multivariate Gaussian distribution onto the resulting coefficient’s distribution. Despite its simplicity, our approach successfully produced 95% confidence intervals that captured the experimental trajectories. It even did so with a higher probability and better U-pooling score across six of the seven relevant quantities of interest (QoIs), as compared to other classical approaches. In conclusion, ongoing research is focusing on generating new experimental trajectories to validate this approach, and on employing Bayesian calibration to refine parametric uncertainties and guide future model development efforts.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2026

JetGP: A derivative enhanced Gaussian process library

Derivative enhanced Gaussian Processes (DEGPs) can significantly improve surrogate model accuracy over standard Gaussian Process (GP) formulations by incorporating derivative information. However, standard implementations scale poorly with dimension, limiting their use in high dimensional engineering problems. JetGP is a Python framework that unifies existing derivative enhanced GP methodologies into a single library and extends them to support arbitrary order derivative information. The library implements four complementary formulations: standard derivative enhanced Gaussian Processes (DEGP), directional DEGP (DDEGP), generalized directional DEGP (GDDEGP), and weighted DEGP (WDEGP). By unifying these approaches in a consistent interface with robust numerical implementations, JetGP enables practitioners to balance predictive accuracy and computational efficiency for high dimensional optimization, uncertainty quantification, and sensitivity analysis in engineering design.

Derivative enhanced Gaussian process↗
DOE OSTI2025

Neural chaos: A spectral stochastic neural operator

Building surrogate models for operators with uncertainty quantification capabilities is essential for many engineering applications where randomness–such as variability in material properties, boundary conditions, and initial conditions–is unavoidable. Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) is widely recognized as a go-to method for constructing stochastic surrogates in both intrusive and non-intrusive ways, and it has recently been used in the context of operator learning. However, its application becomes challenging for complex or high-dimensional processes, as achieving accuracy requires higher-order polynomials, which can increase computational demand and/or the risk of overfitting. Furthermore, PCE requires specialized treatments to manage random variables that are not independent, and these treatments may be problem-dependent or may fail with increasing complexity. Here, in this work, we adopt the same formalism as the spectral expansion used in PCE; however, we replace the classical polynomial basis functions with neural network (NN) basis functions to leverage their expressivity. To achieve this, we propose an algorithm that identifies NN-parameterized basis functions in a purely data-driven manner, without any prior assumptions about the joint distribution of the random variables involved, whether independent or dependent, or about their marginal distributions. The proposed algorithm identifies each NN-parameterized basis function sequentially, ensuring they are orthogonal with respect to the data distribution. The basis functions are constructed directly on the joint stochastic variables without requiring a tensor product structure or assuming independence of the random variables. This approach may offer greater flexibility for complex stochastic models, while simplifying implementation compared to the tensor product structures typically used in PCE to handle random vectors. This is particularly advantageous given the current state of open-source packages, where building and training neural networks can be done with just a few lines of code and extensive community support. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed scheme through several numerical examples of varying complexity and provide comparisons with classical PCE.

Polynomial chaos expansion↗
DOE OSTI2025

Increased inflammation as well as decreased endoplasmic reticulum stress and translation differentiate pancreatic islets from donors with pre-symptomatic stage 1 type 1 diabetes and non-diabetic donors

Aims/hypothesis Progression to type 1 diabetes is associated with genetic factors, the presence of autoantibodies and a decline in beta cell insulin secretion in response to glucose. Very little is known regarding the molecular changes that occur in human insulin-secreting beta cells prior to the onset of type 1 diabetes. Herein, we applied an unbiased proteomics approach to identify changes in proteins and potential mechanisms of islet dysfunction in islet-autoantibody-positive organ donors with pre-symptomatic stage 1 type 1 diabetes (HbA1c ≤42 mmol/mol [6.0%]). We aimed to identify pathways in islets that are indicative of beta cell dysfunction. Methods Multiple islet sections were collected through laser microdissection of frozen pancreatic tissues from organ donors positive for single or multiple islet autoantibodies (AAb + , n=5), and age (±2 years)- and sex-matched non-diabetic (ND) control donors (n=5) obtained from the Network for Pancreatic Organ donors with Diabetes (nPOD). Islet sections were subjected to MS-based proteomics and analysed with label-free quantification followed by pathway and functional annotations. Results Analyses resulted in ~4500 proteins identified with low false discovery rate (<1%), with 2165 proteins reliably quantified in every islet sample. We observed large inter-donor variations that presented a challenge for statistical analysis of proteome changes between donor groups. We therefore focused on only the donors with stage 1 type 1 diabetes who were positive for multiple autoantibodies (mAAb + , n=3) and genetic risk compared with their matched ND controls (n=3) for the final statistical analysis. Approximately 10% of the proteins (n=202) were significantly different (unadjusted p<0.025, q<0.15) for mAAb + vs ND donor islets. The significant alterations clustered around major functions for upregulation in the immune response and glycolysis, and downregulation in endoplasmic reticulum (ER) stress response as well as protein translation and synthesis. The observed proteome changes were further supported by several independent published datasets, including a proteomics dataset from in vitro proinflammatory cytokine-treated human islets and single-cell RNA-seq datasets from AAb + individuals. Conclusions/interpretation In situ human islet proteome alterations in stage 1 type 1 diabetes centred around several major functional categories, including an expected increase in immune response genes (elevated antigen presentation/HLA), with decreases in protein synthesis and ER stress response, as well as compensatory metabolic response. The dataset serves as a proteomics resource for future studies on beta cell changes during type 1 diabetes progression and pathogenesis. Data availability The LC-MS raw datasets that support the findings of this study have been deposited in the online repository: MassIVE (https://massive.ucsd.edu/ProteoSAFe/static/massive.jsp) with accession no. MSV000090212.

Autoantibody-positive↗
DOE OSTI2026

AI/ML-Enhanced Wind Forecasts for Reducing Uncertainty in Prescribed Fire Planning

Prescribed fire is a vital tool for ecosystem management and wildfire risk reduction but its escalation is constrained by overly conservative burn windows because of uncertainties, for instance, in wind forecasts. This review describes the state of the art in weather product use by fire/smoke models and identifies three priority research gaps that artificial intelligence/machine learning (AI/ML) is well positioned to address: (1) spatial and temporal downscaling to meter-scale, sub-hourly wind fields; (2) bias correction for systematic model errors in complex terrain; and (3) robust uncertainty quantification to inform ensemble-based simulations. Emerging AI/ML techniques offer promising frameworks to address all three challenges. By providing high-resolution, bias-corrected, and probabilistic wind fields, AI/ML-enhanced forecasts will allow for expanded burn windows, improved ignition strategy design and a reduced reliance on expert intuition, especially when a prescribed fire is introduced into new areas.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Insights Into Nature-Based Climate Solutions: Managing Forests for Climate Resilience and Carbon Stability

Successful implementation of forest management as a nature-based climate solution is dependent on the durability of management-induced changes in forest carbon storage and sequestration. As forests face unprecedented stability risks in the face of ongoing climate change, much remains unknown regarding how management will impact forest stability, or how interactions with climate might shift the response of forests to management across spatiotemporal scales. Here, we used a process-based model to simulate multidecadal projections of forest dynamics in response to changes in management and climate. Simulations were conducted across gradients in forest type, edaphic factors, and management intensity under two alternate radiative forcing scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). This allowed for the quantification of forest stability shifts in response to climate change, and the role of management in modulating that response, where ecosystem stability is characterized as the resilience and temporal stability of net primary production, aboveground biomass, and soil carbon. Our results indicate that forest structure is primarily shaped by management, but the same management strategy often produced divergent structures over time, due to interactions with regional climate change. We found that management can be used to increase stability and minimize the release of stored carbon by reducing mortality, but also highlight the regional dependency of management-induced changes in resilience to climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Fracture Network Quantification for Enhanced Reservoir Characterization in CO2 Storage Sites

Presentation slides on “Fracture Network Quantification for Enhanced Reservoir Characterization in CO2 Storage Sites” for the CCUS 2025 conference held in Houston, Texas March 3-5, 2025. Accurate reservoir characterization is fundamental for the safe and efficient operation of carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) projects. This process is not only critical during initial site selection but also plays a key role in continuously updating reservoir geomodels throughout injection operations to effectively manage subsurface storage sites. Our primary objective is to develop a comprehensive understanding of fracture networks within CO2 injection reservoirs, which are critical for predicting the behavior of injected fluids, ensuring storage integrity post-injection, and mitigating risks such as leakage or induced seismicity.

artifical intelligence / machine learning (AI/ML)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Regression Analysis with the Directed Infusion of Data

Integrating artificial intelligence and machine learning tools into industry necessitates large-scale collaborative efforts that ensure the robust and accurate execution of downstream analytics such as time series prediction, uncertainty quantification, grid optimization, and condition monitoring. However, concerns related to data privacy pervade the nuclear industry due to the proprietary nature of its data and the possibility of data leakage. Legacy techniques such as encryption often require the explicit transmission of data to trustworthy parties, thereby inviting data leakage concerns. The ideal collaboration scenario avoids the explicit dissemination of data/code while maintaining experimental fidelity, which is currently accomplished using various techniques such as trusted execution environments, homomorphic encryption, differential privacy, and multimatrix masking. These techniques, however, often necessitate a trade-off between trust, efficiency, and utility. This article extends a previously proposed technique called the directed infusion of data (DIOD) that ensures data privacy, allows for scalable obfuscation, and combats the risk of data leakage without compromising utility. The experiments discussed in this article examine a regression-type scenario using DIOD with the goal of preserving the inferential link between two variables. Using the point-kinetics equations, regression experiments compare the performance of a model trained using the original data to that of a model trained using the obfuscated data, which produced identical results. Our claim is further strengthened by an information theoretic proof and experiment, which showed that the inferential content between variables remains the same after obfuscation, thereby avoiding the required communication of the proprietary data.

47 - OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Work With Us to Advance Cybersecurity for the Current and Future Grid

The energy sector is undergoing rapid change. Advanced technologies and controls, digitally connected devices, and a mix of generation sources offer increased energy reliability and security, reduced energy costs, and enhanced grid operations. But they can also carry physical and cybersecurity risks that are not yet fully understood. With deep expertise in advanced energy technologies, the National Laboratory of the Rockies is examining the cybersecurity implications of evolving systems and developing cutting-edge tools, novel approaches, and innovative research capabilities to address sector-wide challenges. Together with our partners, we are working to achieve a more secure, defensible, and reliable grid.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Envisioning U.S. Climate Predictions and Projections to Meet New Challenges

In the face of a changing climate, the understanding, predictions, and projections of natural and human systems are increasingly crucial to prepare and cope with extremes and cascading hazards, determine unexpected feedbacks and potential tipping points, inform long-term adaptation strategies, and guide mitigation approaches. Increasingly complex socio-economic systems require enhanced predictive information to support advanced practices. Such new predictive challenges drive the need to fully capitalize on ambitious scientific and technological opportunities. These include the unrealized potential for very high-resolution modeling of global-to-local Earth system processes across timescales, reduction of model biases, enhanced integration of human systems and the Earth Systems, better quantification of predictability and uncertainties; expedited science-to-service pathways, and co-production of actionable information with stakeholders. Enabling technological opportunities include exascale computing, advanced data storage, novel observations and powerful data analytics, including artificial intelligence and machine learning. Looking to generate community discussions on how to accelerate progress on U.S. climate predictions and projections, representatives of Federally-funded U.S. modeling groups outline here perspectives on a six-pillar national approach grounded in climate science that builds on the strengths of the U.S. modeling community and agency goals. This calls for an unprecedented level of coordination to capitalize on transformative opportunities, augmenting and complementing current modeling center capabilities and plans to support agency missions. Tangible outcomes include projections with horizontal spatial resolutions finer than 10 km, representing extremes and associated risks in greater detail, reduced model errors, better predictability estimates, and more customized projections to support next generation climate services.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evidential Deep Learning for Probabilistic Modelling of Extreme Storm Events

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods play an important role in reducing errors in weather forecasting. Conventional approaches in UQ for weather forecasting rely on generating an ensemble of forecasts from physics-based simulations to estimate the uncertainty. However, it is computationally expensive to generate many forecasts to predict real-time extreme weather events. Evidential Deep Learning (EDL) is an uncertainty-aware deep learning approach designed to provide confidence about its predictions using only one forecast. It treats learning as an evidence acquisition process where more evidence is interpreted as increased predictive confidence. We apply EDL to storm forecasting using real-world weather datasets and compare its performance with traditional methods. Our findings indicate that EDL not only reduces computational overhead but also enhances predictive uncertainty. This method opens up novel opportunities in research areas such as climate risk assessment, where quantifying the uncertainty about future climate is crucial.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗