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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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53 records · Page 3

Role of reinforcement learning for risk-based robust control of cyber-physical energy systems

Critical infrastructures such as cyber-physical energy systems (CPS-E) integrate information flow and physical operations that are vulnerable to natural and targeted failures. Safe, secure, and reliable operation and control of CPS-E is critical to ensure societal well-being and economic prosperity. Automated control is key for real-time operations and may be mathematically cast as a sequential decision-making problem under uncertainty. Emergence of data-driven techniques for decision making under uncertainty, such as reinforcement learning (RL), have led to promising advances for addressing sequential decision-making problems for risk-based robust CPS-E control. However, existing research challenges include understanding the applicability of RL methods across diverse CPS-E applications, addressing the effect of risk preferences across multiple RL methods, and development of open-source domain-aware simulation environments for RL experimentation within a CPS-E context. This article systematically analyzes the applicability of four types of RL methods (model-free, model-based, hybrid model-free and model-based, and hierarchical) for risk-based robust CPS-E control. Problem features and solution stability for the RL methods are also discussed. We demonstrate and compare the performance of multiple RL methods under different risk specifications (risk-averse, risk-neutral, and risk-seeking) through the development and application of an open-source simulation environment. Motivating numerical simulation examples include representative single-zone and multizone building control use cases. Finally, six key insights for future research and broader adoption of RL methods are identified, with specific emphasis on problem features, algorithmic explainability, and solution stability.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Binary Quantum Control Optimization with Uncertain Hamiltonians

Optimizing the controls of quantum systems plays a crucial role in advancing quantum technologies. The time-varying noises in quantum systems and the widespread use of inhomogeneous quantum ensembles raise the need for high-quality quantum controls under uncertainties. In this paper, we consider a stochastic discrete optimization formulation of a discretized binary optimal quantum control problem involving Hamiltonians with predictable uncertainties. We propose a sample-based reformulation that optimizes both risk-neutral and risk-averse measurements of control policies, and solve these with two gradient-based algorithms using sum-up-rounding approaches. Furthermore, we discuss the differentiability of the objective function and prove upper bounds of the gaps between the optimal solutions to binary control problems and their continuous relaxations. We conduct numerical simulations on various sized problem instances based on two applications of quantum pulse optimization; we evaluate different strategies to mitigate the impact of uncertainties in quantum systems. In conclusion, we demonstrate that the controls of our stochastic optimization model achieve significantly higher quality and robustness compared with the controls of a deterministic model.

conditional value-at-risk (CVaR)↗

Early detection and uncertainty quantification of rapid sea-level rise from Antarctica

Focal Areas: (i) classification and/or anomaly detection methods applied towards identifying critical climate system thresholds; improved emulator design for (ii) reducing computational costs relative to full-physics models and (iii) improved uncertainty quantification workflows. Rationale: The evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet in response to climate change remains the single largest uncertainty in projecting future sea-level rise (SLR), with risk-averse projections for 2100 spanning between zero and a half meter. During the past decade, DOE has made substantial investments in new ice sheet and Earth system models needed to improve both understanding and predictive capability in this area. Yet major challenges remain, including better understanding when and under what circumstances significant increases in SLR from Antarctica may be initiated and better quantifying uncertainties in model-based SLR projections. Here, we discuss the potential for transformative advances in these areas through the application of machine learning and artificial intelligence (ML and AI, respectively).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Supercritical Carbon Dioxide Primary Power Large-Scale Pilot Plant

The United States electrical power generation fleet encompasses a wide range of technologies, ranging from traditional combustion-based power generation, to nuclear power, to renewable energy. While the distribution of these assets continues to shift due to economic and regulatory influences, coal combustion continues to be a key part of the US energy portfolio. Despite the relative maturity of coal combustion technology, improvements in overall fuel-to-power efficiency and generation flexibility are still possible and will improve both the economic and environmental factors of coal combustion. Echogen Power Systems proposes to lead a world-class team including the University of Missouri, Electric Power Research Institute and Louis Perry Associates in the design, construction and operation of a 10MWe coal-fired supercritical carbon dioxide (sCO 2 ) large-scale pilot. This transformational technology uses sCO 2 as a working fluid instead of water to achieve high thermodynamic efficiencies that can significantly exceed advanced steam-Rankine cycles. Further, the compact nature of sCO 2 turbomachinery offers capital cost and footprint advantages, and the low maintenance of a water-free power cycle can significantly reduce operation and maintenance (O&M) costs over conventional steam-Rankine systems. Recent integration studies of sCO 2 with coal combustion power plants highlight the significant improvements in plant efficiency that sCO 2 can offer relative to even advanced steam Rankine cycles. At commercial scales, coal-sCO 2 plant net efficiency is predicted to be 39-44.0% (HHV), or 10-20% higher output than conventional steam-Rankine systems, which will significantly improve the competitiveness of coal-fired generation. This proposal builds upon projects previously funded by the Department of Energy, including DE-FE0025959 (High-Efficiency Thermal Integration of Closed Supercritical CO 2 Brayton Power Cycles with Oxy-Fired Heaters) and DE-NE0008470 (Conceptual Design for sCO 2 Power Cycle Test Facility). An appropriately-scaled and properly designed and operated pilot project is essential to overcome the natural risk-aversion of the power generation industry and project financing community. The 10 MWe coal-fired sCO 2 pilot power plant proposed herein will reduce the technical and economic risk of this transformational technology, enabling commercial deployment at the conclusion of the project. For the second phase of this project, Echogen lead a team that completed and refined the pilot system conceptual system and key component designs resulting in the completion of a front-end-engineering-design (FEED) study, completed the NEPA review process, completed the permitting process for construction and operation, refined the techno-economic analysis of the proposed system at commercial scale and received commitments for Phase III cost share. The end result of the program will be to demonstrate the technical and economic superiority of the sCO 2 power cycle for coal-fired operation. Major risk elements will have been retired with sufficient operation at high power to enable the power generation industry to move forward with the first commercial deployment of this transformational system.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Evaluation of In-Situ AM Process Monitoring Techniques and Potential for Detecting Process Anomalies and Undesirable Microstructures

The US Department of Energy’s Advanced Materials and Manufacturing Technologies (AMMT) program is pursuing rapid qualification of new materials for fabrication of nuclear relevant components using advanced manufacturing techniques. Particular interest is placed on code-qualifying stainless steel (SS) 316H processed by laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) additive manufacturing. A paradigm that incorporates data from in-situ sensing during the printing, ex-situ characterization, and advanced artificial intelligence–based models was established under the Transformation Challenge Reactor (TCR) program to develop a pedigree for each fabricated component that could be tracked from the feedstock to the component’s release for application. Under the TCR program, the Peregrine software was developed as a tool for incorporating the vast amounts of in-situ and ex-situ characterization data collected; all data stored on a rapidly growing digital platform. The digital platform allows for users to link site-specific process anomalies to the macro- and microstructure. The platform will eventually be able to predict component performance, which will be crucial to qualifying materials and components in risk-averse industries such as those supporting and building nuclear reactors. Current in-situ process monitoring techniques that are already integrated with software like Peregrine are advantageous for identifying process anomalies including powder spatter, component edge swelling, recoating-build interactions, and so on. However, additional data are required to fully predict the resulting microstructures needed for identifying relationships to component performance. The rapid cooling rates observed in LPBF are some of the highest of any bulk manufacturing process, resulting in heterogenous microstructures and typically causing anisotropy in mechanical properties. Moreover, evolved residual thermal stresses are high, which can cause severe defects such as delamination or cracking. Therefore, other in-situ monitoring methods are warranted for exploration to measure and map the thermal history, and potentially the stress state, of each build. This report summarizes different in-situ monitoring strategies proposed for LPBF with a focus on the more developed sensor systems. Novel capabilities for measuring melt pool temperatures are also addressed to better inform modeling efforts.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A Probabilistic Methodology for Determining Collision Risk of Marine Animals with Tidal Energy Turbines

Commercial development of tidal stream energy is hampered by technical and financial challenges, and impeded by uncertainty about potential environmental effects that drive environmental risk assessments and permitting (consenting) processes. The effect of greatest concern for operational tidal stream energy devices is the potential for marine animals to collide with turbine blades, resulting in injury or death. Due to the turbulent and often turbid waters that frequently characterize tidal turbine sites, there is an absence of empirical evidence about collisions with marine animals. This paucity of observations often leads to risk-averse permitting decisions that further restrict the deployment of tidal energy devices that are needed to collect this evidence. This paper relies on the framework of stressors and receptors that is widely used in marine energy studies and outlines a stepwise probabilistic methodology that applies existing knowledge to further elucidate the risk to marine animals from operational tidal turbines. A case study using striped bass from the Bay of Fundy, Canada, accompanies the methodology, to partially demonstrate its application.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Navigating Epistemic Uncertainty in the Management of Flash Droughts

Abstract: Flash droughts, characterized by their rapid onset, sharply contrast with the typically gradual development of traditional droughts. These events are triggered by a combination of low rainfall and high evaporation rates, driven by elevated temperatures, making them particularly challenging to predict and prepare for. As a relatively new concept, flash drought is not well understood, which introduces significant epistemic uncertainties regarding their nature and detection methods. This under-detection hinders planners' ability to effectively manage these events. Despite these uncertainties, flash droughts can have significant impacts, raising the question: how can decision-makers prepare for such events given the current knowledge gaps? To address this, we propose a methodological framework aimed at enhancing flash drought preparedness by guiding the selection of appropriate indicators based on their detection capabilities and the decision-makers' level of risk aversion. Our approach involves evaluating six different flash drought indicators and analyzing the level of agreement among them. Additionally, we consider the decision-makers' risk aversion, distinguishing between those who require consensus across all methods (risk-takers) and those who act based on a single method's indication (risk-averse). The insights gained from this study offer a pathway towards more informed decision-making processes regarding flash droughts, potentially mitigating their adverse effects through better preparedness and response strategies.

climate resilience↗

Anticipating the reaction: public concern about sample return missions

Shifts in public attitude that may affect extraterrestrial sample return include increased public participation in the legal and regulatory environment, institutionalized public vigilance, politicization of technological debates and shifts in the nature of public decision-making, and a risk-averse public accustomed to mass media coverage that focuses on hazards and disasters. The ice-minus recombinant DNA experiment is used as an example of the effects of public opinion on scientific experimentation.

NASA Center ARC↗

Flight Systems Integration and Test

Topics to be Covered in this presentation are: (1) Integration and Test (I&T) Planning (2) Integration and Test Flows (3) Overview of Typical Mission I&T (4) Supporting Elements (5) Lessons-Learned and Helpful Hints (6) I&T Mishaps and Failures (7) The Lighter Side of I&T and (8) Small-Group Activity. This presentation highlights a typical NASA "in-house" I&T program (1) For flight systems that are developed by NASA at a space flight center (like GSFC) (2) Requirements well-defined: qualification/acceptance, documentation, configuration management. (3) Factors: precedents, human flight, risk-aversion ("failure-phobia"), taxpayer dollars, jobs and (4) Some differences among NASA centers, but generally a resource-intensive process

Wright, Michael R.↗

Monitoring for Renal Stone Recurrence in Astronauts With History of Stone

After an initial stone episode persons are at increased risk for future stone formation. A systematic approach is required to monitor the efficacy of treatment and preventive measures, and to assess the risk of developing new stones. This is important for persons working in critical jobs or austere environments, such as astronauts. A literature review of the current standards of care for renal stone monitoring and imaging was done. Military and civil aviation standards were also reviewed, as well as the medical precedents from the space program. Additionally, a new, more effective, renal stone ultrasound protocol has been developed. Using this work, a monitoring algorithm was proposed that takes into consideration the unique mission and operational environment of spaceflight. The approach to imaging persons with history of renal stones varies widely in the literature. Imaging is often done yearly or biannually, which may be too long for mission critical personnel. In the proposed algorithm astronauts with a history of renal stone, who may be under consideration for assignment, are imaged by a detailed, physiciandriven, ultrasound protocol. Unassigned personnel are monitored by yearly ultrasound and urine studies. Any positive ultrasound study is then followed by low-dose renal computed tomography scan. Other criteria are also established. The proposed algorithm provides a balanced approach between efficacy and reduced radiation exposure for the monitoring of astronauts with a renal stone history. This may eventually allow a transition from a risk-averse, to a risk-modifying approach that can enable continued service of individuals with history of renal stone that have adequately controlled risk factors.

Reyes, David P.↗

JPL Innovation Foundry

Space science missions are increasingly challenged today: in ambition, by increasingly sophisticated hypotheses tested; in development, by the increasing complexity of advanced technologies; in budgeting, by the decline of flagship-class mission opportunities; in management, by expectations for breakthrough science despite a risk-averse programmatic climate; and in planning, by increasing competition for scarce resources. How are the space-science missions of tomorrow being formulated? The paper describes the JPL Innovation Foundry, created in 2011, to respond to this evolving context. The Foundry integrates methods, tools, and experts that span the mission concept lifecycle. Grounded in JPL's heritage of missions, flight instruments, mission proposals, and concept innovation, the Foundry seeks to provide continuity of support and cost-effective, on-call access to the right domain experts at the right time, as science definition teams and Principal Investigators mature mission ideas from "cocktail napkin" to PDR. The Foundry blends JPL capabilities in proposal development and concurrent engineering, including Team X, with new approaches for open-ended concept exploration in earlier, cost-constrained phases, and with ongoing research and technology projects. It applies complexity and cost models, projectformulation lessons learned, and strategy analyses appropriate to each level of concept maturity. The Foundry is organizationally integrated with JPL formulation program offices; staffed by JPL's line organizations for engineering, science, and costing; and overseen by senior Laboratory leaders to assure experienced coordination and review. Incubation of each concept is tailored depending on its maturity and proposal history, and its highest leverage modeling and analysis needs.

mission development↗

Recent Advances and Future Challenges in Risk-Based Radiation Engineering

We cover a top-level introduction to hardness assurance (HA) from a robotic space system perspective, starting at the piece-part level. We discuss error sources inherent to presently-accepted HA practices and why they cause us to be risk-averse. We conclude by reviewing current proposals that move towards more risk-tolerant system design approaches as well as future challenges that will require these advanced techniques.

radiation effects↗

22 N HPGP Thruster Life Testing

In the ever-changing paradigm of efficient and capable spacecraft design, scientific missions continue pushing the envelope enabling spacecraft subsystems to deliver effective solutions to meet challenging new mission/spacecraft needs. From an in-space storable liquid chemical propulsion perspective, monopropellant hydrazine has been, and continues to be, a dependable propellant with considerable flight heritage, a variety of engine thrust classes available from multiple vendors, with repeatable and reliable performance. Additionally, the space propulsion industry has learned to successfully handle hydrazine, its regulations, the safety protocols, the personnel protective equipment, and the unique training standards–all requisite for loading spacecraft propulsion systems with toxic hypergolic hydrazine. The question now arises as to “what is next for in-space chemical propulsion?” Further, with the evolution and concrete advancements in innovative in-space green propellant technologies, capable of providing realizable benefits to scientific missions, concern over the reliability and availability of this higher performing and safer to handle class of propellants is waning. As science missions move forward with the potential flight in fusion of High Performance Green Propulsion (HPGP), NASA and its industry partners are working to address any gaps in system reliability, performance, or unique operational considerations. Propellant technology that offers both higher performance and significant reduction in personnel hazards compared to hydrazine presents an attractive propulsion subsystem design opportunity. Increased propulsion subsystem performance can result in lower spacecraft launch mass, larger scientific payloads, or extended on-orbit lifetimes. Mission trades using green propulsion technologies have been documented on multiple NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) mission classes, examining various parameters and requirements to support mission architectures in Low Earth Orbit (LEO), High Earth Orbit (HEO), geostationary, lunar, planetary, and Quasi-halo orbit around Sun-Earth Lagrange point (L2). The results of these trade studies show promising, attainable benefits. The perceived programmatic risk of flying a newer propulsion technology has, unfortunately, not outweighed the benefits to date. To take advantage of the improved performance and mitigate programmatic risk, HPGP engines must demonstrate life testing at higher propellant throughputs than have currently been demonstrated. In an effort to proactively address the challenges with technology infusion into a risk-averse community, NASA and the Swedish National Space Agency (SNSA) outlined a collaborative Implementing Arrangement (IA) for the respective agencies to pursue increased HPGP technology maturation. This initial IA effort began in 2013, fresh off the heels of the successful PRISMA HPGP technology demonstration mission. The IA targeted objective is to reduce risk to potential future HPGP missions and fully characterize the LMP-103S propellant and associated engine performance. Over the past eight years, HPGP has flown in propulsion systems on twenty-five(25) spacecraft from seven(7) different Launch Ranges around the globe and on seven (7) different Launch Vehicles. Six(6) of these launches involved multiple loading operations for multiple spacecraft. For U.S. Range operations, nine (9) HPGP systems have been processed at Vandenberg Space Force Base(VSFB):six(6) in 2017, and three (3) in 2018. Six (6) more have been processed at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS)in May 2020, with three (3) systems launched in June 2020 and the remaining three (3) system were left loaded and ready until their launch in August of 2020. Three (3) more systems have been processed at Wallops Flight Facility(WFF)and launched in June 2021. In addition, these propulsion subsystems employed heritage propulsion subsystem component such as valves, filters, and pressure transducers, and have further demonstrated nominal functionality in both diaphragm and Propellant Management Device (PDM) propellant tanks. Based on these successes, HPGP technology continues to be considered for NASA Science Mission Directorate missions at GSFC. The work presented herein represents many years of development and collaborative efforts to successfully align higher performance, low toxicity hydrazine alternatives into scientific missions. NASA GSFC Propulsion Engineering, in collaboration with Bradford ECAPS, has developed mission specific thruster design and testing requirements to establish GSFC’s desired test conditions and firing sequences.In2017, the first flight-like 22N HPGP thruster Engineering Qualification Model (EQM-1)was designed and built by Bradford ECAPS to prove out the thruster design, materials, build process, and test campaign with respect to NASA GSFC critical component and mission requirements. This test program was developed to comprehensively test the thruster, the technology, and ultimately increase the 22N HPGP Technology Readiness Level(TRL). EQM-1was tested to environmental qualification levels prior to hot fire performance testing to represent the relevant end-to-end environment (launch to on-orbit operation)with required margin. This thruster demonstrated steady-state and pulse mode operational capability with propellant thruster throughput up to~53kg.At this throughput level, the EQM-1 engine began to present off-nominal performance and the test campaign was halted to allow for non-destructive testing and identify the root cause for the an omalous performance. Capitalizing on the successful elements of the EQM-1 campaign, an upgraded 22N HPGP EQM-2 has been manufactured by Bradford ECAPS to meet the complete GSFC requirements. The EQM-2 thruster’s test campaign has further demonstrated the robustness of the HPGP propulsion technology and increased the Technology Readiness Level (TRL) by undergoing a full acceptance test program, then proceeding into qualification, including environmental testing (vibration and shock to qualification levels),as well as hot-fire life testing, operating at steady-state and pulse modes with increased propellant thruster throughput to~150kg. The HPGP thruster performance testing enables effective HPGP thruster readiness evaluation to meet NASA candidate mission requirements in the future.

High↗

Space ROS TOFU: Flying Space ROS with Containerized Hybrid Trust

Space ROS is a distribution of Robot Operating System 2 (ROS2) targeting the specific requirements of flight software and spaceborne robotics while maintaining the flexibility that has made ROS indispensible for robotics research and industrial system integration. With Space ROS, a project can leverage the existing ROS2 ecosystem to reduce redundant development while tackling increasingly complex demands for on-device intelligence; however, there is no substitute for flight heritage to combat the risk-aversion common to spaceflight projects, and Space ROS has yet to fly. To break the collective-action standoff and gain valuable flight experience, the Distributed Spacecraft Autonomy (DSA) team at NASA Ames Research Center developed Opportunistic Software Experiments for Spacecraft Autonomy Testbeds (OSE-SAT) architecture, utilizing containerization to execute lower-trust software under traditionally verified heritage flight software for demonstration on-orbit. OSE-SAT leverages a hybrid-trust model where flexible, complex components like Space ROS can run without risk to the host spacecraft while providing validated feedback to a highly scrutinized, trusted core. We leverage this testbed to demonstrate Space ROS in flight, building heritage, and experience for projects with "Trust On First Use" (TOFU) requirements for flight heritage. We present a Space ROS component for OSE-SAT, lessons learned integrating Space ROS into a flight software stack, and the results of the first known use of Space ROS in orbit.

small satellites↗

Demonstration of Rapid Development Through Containerization: OSE-SAT

Modern advancements in spacecraft technology have enabled engineers to develop radically smaller and lighter spacecraft, which has drastically reduced the cost of putting spacecraft into space. Despite these advancements and the shrinking cost to get spacecraft into space, space exploration is still prohibitively expensive. So much so that many space missions prefer to err on the side of caution than take on additional risk by trying newer, unproven technologies. This risk-averse mission design, while very reasonable from a program management point of view, significantly impacts engineers’ ability to solve newer, more complicated problems and limits scientists’ ability to develop more complex experiments that rely on newer technology. Often these new technologies remain stuck at lower technology readiness levels for many years due to the space community's reluctance to take on the additional risks of proving out unproven technology. The Distributed Spacecraft Autonomy (DSA) team at NASA Ames Research Center is developing a containerized solution to enable the rapid development of newer space technologies and accelerate their adoption into space missions. The Opportunistic Software Experiments for Spacecraft Autonomy Testbeds (OSE-SAT) is an on-orbit test bed that aims to reduce the amount of risk associated with newer, unproven space technologies by containerizing each experiment in its own isolated environment and providing a safe, robust, and controlled interface to access spacecraft host resources that is monitored in real time by thoroughly tested Trusted Container developed by DSA. This paper will describe DSA’s implementation of OSE-SAT and discuss the benefits, as well as challenges, of on-orbit containerization.

Aaron J Woodard↗

Extreme Risk Mitigation in Reinforcement Learning using Extreme Value Theory

Risk-sensitive reinforcement learning (RL) has garnered significant attention in recent years due to the growing interest in deploying RL agents in real-world scenarios. A critical aspect of risk awareness involves modelling highly rare risk events (rewards) that could potentially lead to catastrophic outcomes. These infrequent occurrences present a formidable challenge for data-driven methods aiming to capture such risky events accurately. While risk-aware RL techniques do exist, they suffer from high variance estimation due to the inherent data scarcity. Our work proposes to enhance the resilience of RL agents when faced with very rare and risky events by focusing on refining the predictions of the extreme values predicted by the state-action value distribution. To achieve this, we formulate the extreme values of the state-action value function distribution as parameterized distributions, drawing inspiration from the principles of extreme value theory (EVT). We propose an extreme value theory based actor-critic approach, namely, Extreme Valued Actor-Critic (EVAC) which effectively addresses the issue of infrequent occurrence by leveraging EVT-based parameterization. Importantly, we theoretically demonstrate the advantages of employing these parameterized distributions in contrast to other risk-averse algorithms. Our evaluations show that the proposed method outperforms other risk averse RL algorithms on a diverse range of benchmark tasks, each encompassing distinct risk scenarios.

Wang, Yu↗