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NASA NTRS2005

Health Management Applications for International Space Station

Traditional mission and vehicle management involves teams of highly trained specialists monitoring vehicle status and crew activities, responding rapidly to any anomalies encountered during operations. These teams work from the Mission Control Center and have access to engineering support teams with specialized expertise in International Space Station (ISS) subsystems. Integrated System Health Management (ISHM) applications can significantly augment these capabilities by providing enhanced monitoring, prognostic and diagnostic tools for critical decision support and mission management. The Intelligent Systems Division of NASA Ames Research Center is developing many prototype applications using model-based reasoning, data mining and simulation, working with Mission Control through the ISHM Testbed and Prototypes Project. This paper will briefly describe information technology that supports current mission management practice, and will extend this to a vision for future mission control workflow incorporating new ISHM applications. It will describe ISHM applications currently under development at NASA and will define technical approaches for implementing our vision of future human exploration mission management incorporating artificial intelligence and distributed web service architectures using specific examples. Several prototypes are under development, each highlighting a different computational approach. The ISStrider application allows in-depth analysis of Caution and Warning (C&W) events by correlating real-time telemetry with the logical fault trees used to define off-nominal events. The application uses live telemetry data and the Livingstone diagnostic inference engine to display the specific parameters and fault trees that generated the C&W event, allowing a flight controller to identify the root cause of the event from thousands of possibilities by simply navigating animated fault tree models on their workstation. SimStation models the functional power flow for the ISS Electrical Power System and can predict power balance for nominal and off-nominal conditions. SimStation uses realtime telemetry data to keep detailed computational physics models synchronized with actual ISS power system state. In the event of failure, the application can then rapidly diagnose root cause, predict future resource levels and even correlate technical documents relevant to the specific failure. These advanced computational models will allow better insight and more precise control of ISS subsystems, increasing safety margins by speeding up anomaly resolution and reducing,engineering team effort and cost. This technology will make operating ISS more efficient and is directly applicable to next-generation exploration missions and Crew Exploration Vehicles.

Alena, Richard↗
NASA NTRS1980

Effects of heavy metals on the absorbance and reflectance spectra of plants

The spectral responses of plants to various concentrations of heavy metals in their rooting media are investigated in relation to the application of remote sensing methods to the detection of vegetation under stress. Absorption photometry of chloroplasts, measurements of metal and chlorophyll concentrations and reflectance spectrometry were performed on leaves of pea, sunflower and soybean plants grown under greenhouse conditions with the addition of various concentrations of Cd, Cu, Pb and Zn to their rooting media and on leaves of oak trees growing naturally in an area of a copper-arsenic mineralization. Under laboratory conditions, the most general effect observed was growth inhibition and ultimately death, with pea plants also exhibiting changes of chlorophyll a/ chlorophyll b ratios with Cd and Cu and reflectance increases in the visible and decreases in the infrared. Although results for other species indicate that reflectance effects are dependent on species, correlations between reflectance and metal exposure is confirmed by the field investigations. It is concluded that a remote sensing system would be improved by the inclusion of bands around 1.65 and 2.20 microns to detect soil mineralization from plant spectra.

Horler, D. N. H.↗
NASA NTRS2000

BOREAS TE-19 Ecosystem Carbon Balance Model

The BOREAS TE-19 team developed a model called the Spruce and Moss Model (SPAM) designed to simulate the daily carbon balance of a black spruce/moss boreal forest ecosystem. It is driven by daily weather conditions, and consists of four components: (1) soil climate, (2) tree photosynthesis and respiration, (3) moss photosynthesis and respiration, and (4) litter decomposition and associated heterotrophic respiration. The model simulates tree gross and net photosynthesis, wood respiration, live root respiration, moss gross and net photosynthesis, and heterotrophic respiration (decomposition of root litter, young needle and moss litter, and humus). These values can be combined to generate predictions of total site net ecosystem exchange of carbon (NEE), total soil dark respiration (live roots + heterotrophs + live moss), spruce and moss net productivity, and net carbon accumulation in the soil. To date, simulations have been of the BOREAS NSA-OBS and SSA-OBS tower sites, from 1968-95 (except 1990-93). The files include source code and sample input and output files in ASCII format. The data files are available on a CD-ROM (see document number 20010000884), or from the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Distributed Activity Archive Center (DAAC).

Hall, Forrest G.↗
NASA NTRS1994

(abstract) Characterization of Tree Water Status and Dielectric Constant Changes of North American Boreal Forests in Combination with Synthetic Aperture Radar Remote Sensing

The occurrence and magnitude of temporal and spatial tree water status changes in the boreal environment were studied in a floodplain forest in Alaska and in four forest types of Central Canada. Under limited water supply conditions from the rooted soil zone in early spring (freeze/thaw transition) and during summer, trees show declining water potentials. Coincidental change in tree water potential, tree transpiration and tree dielectric constant had been observed in previous studies performed in Mediterranean ecotones. If radar is sensitive to chances in tree water status as reflected through changes in dielectric constant, then radar remote sensing could be used to monitor the water status of forests. The SAR imagery is examined to determine the response of the radar backscatter to the ground based observations of the water status of forest canopies. Comparisons are made between stands and also along the large North-South gradient between sites. Data from SAR are used to examine the radar response to canopy physiological state as related to vegetation freeze/thaw and growing season length.

remote sensing imaging↗
NASA NTRS1992

Intelligent alarming

This talk discusses the importance of providing a process operator with concise information about a process fault including a root cause diagnosis of the problem, a suggested best action for correcting the fault, and prioritization of the problem set. A decision tree approach is used to illustrate one type of approach for determining the root cause of a problem. Fault detection in several different types of scenarios is addressed, including pump malfunctions and pipeline leaks. The talk stresses the need for a good data rectification strategy and good process models along with a method for presenting the findings to the process operator in a focused and understandable way. A real time expert system is discussed as an effective tool to help provide operators with this type of information. The use of expert systems in the analysis of actual versus predicted results from neural networks and other types of process models is discussed.

Braden, W. B.↗
NASA NTRS1985

The Capillary Pumped Loop (CPL) GAS experiment G-471

The Capillary Pumped Loop (CPL) experiment, 6-471 is a thermal control system with high density heat acquisition and transport capability. The CPL consists of two capillary pumped evaporators with integral heaters, a fluid loop charged with ammonia (NH3), a condenser plate (heat sink), and various control electronics. The purpose of the experiment is to demonstrate the capability of a capillary pumped system under zero gravity conditions for use in the thermal control of large scientific instruments, advanced orbiting spacecraft, and space station components. A unique feature of the CPL is the capillary pumps, which contain no moving parts. Each pump contains a wick of porous material which is saturated with the working fluid (anhydrous ammonia). As heat is added to the fluid, it evaporates and travels to the condenser, thus transporting the heat (via the latent heat of vaporization) from the heat source to its sink at nearly a constant temperature. The evaporation process produces the pressure gradient or pumping action that circulates the fluid. This is the same principal that plants and trees use to transport water and nutrients from their roots to their leaves against gravity. The difference is that the CPL employs a closed system to return the fluid directly to the pumps, whereas "Mother Nature'' has an open system where the fluid is indirectly returned to the roots by condensation of water from the clouds in the form of rain. It should be noted that the CPL experiment was the first flight of a thermal control system of this type. It was also the first shuttle experiment from the Space Station Advanced Development Program.

Dan Butler↗
NASA NTRS2005

Climatic Versus Biotic Constraints on Carbon and Water Fluxes in Seasonally Drought-affected Ponderosa Pine Ecosystems

We investigated the relative importance of climatic versus biotic controls on gross primary production (GPP) and water vapor fluxes in seasonally drought-affected ponderosa pine forests. The study was conducted in young (YS), mature (MS), and old stands (OS) over 4 years at the AmeriFlux Metolius sites. Model simulations showed that interannual variation of GPP did not follow the same trends as precipitation, and effects of climatic variation were smallest at the OS ( 50%), and intermediate at the YS (<20%). In the young, developing stand, interannual variation in leaf area has larger effects on fluxes than climate, although leaf area is a function of climate in that climate can interact with age-related shifts in carbon allocation and affect whole-tree hydraulic conductance. Older forests, with well-established root systems, appear to be better buffered from effects of seasonal drought and interannual climatic variation. Interannual variation of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) was also lowest at the OS, where NEE is controlled more by interannual variation of ecosystem respiration, 70% of which is from soil, than by the variation of GPP, whereas variation in GPP is the primary reason for interannual changes in NEE at the YS and MS. Across spatially heterogeneous landscapes with high frequency of younger stands resulting from natural and anthropogenic disturbances, interannual climatic variation and change in leaf area are likely to result in large interannual variation in GPP and NEE.

Schwarz, P. A.↗
NASA NTRS1994

(abstract) Monitoring the Freeze/Thaw Transitions in Taiga Forests Using ERS-1 SAR

Automated recording stations have been installed at the Bonanza Creek Experimental Forest, a Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) site located near Fairbanks, Alaska, in a forest stand of the Tanana River floodplain underlain by discontinuous permafrost. These stations provide a continuous record of dielectric constant and temperature of tree trunks, and soil moisture and temperature profiles down to the root zone. Along with the weather stations deployed at the same location, these measurements provide a continuous record of the environmental and phenologic conditions of the forest during a complete seasonal cycle. At the same time, ERS-1 SAR imaged the study site repeatedly from space to provide radar backscatter measurements of the forest approximately three times a month. Here, we examine the temporal dynamic of ERS-1 SAR measurements in relation with the changing environmental and phenologic state of the forest canopy and of the forest ground layers during the winter/spring and fall/winter transitions of 1992 and 1993. During these transitions, we examine whether changes in radar backscatter observed by ERS-1 may be related to freezing or thawing of the soil and vegetation in order to determine the start and end of the growing season for the forest. The results of this analysis are used in turn to determine whether similar changes are observed over larger regions. Mosaics of SAR data generated along three different North-South Alaskan ERS-1 transects that intercept with our study site are used in combination with hourly air temperature and daily precipitation rates gathered at airport weather stations by the National Weather Service. Results obtained using ERS-1 data collected from January 1992 to mid-1993 will be discussed.

permafrost temporal dynamics Alaska ecology radar ↗
NASA NTRS1972

Fluorescent antibody detection of microorganisms in terrestrial environments

The fluorescent antibody technique and its use in direct microscopic examination of the soil is discussed. Feasibility analyses were made to determine if the method could be used to simultaneously observe and recognize microorganisms in the soil. Some data indicate this may be possible. Data are also given on two related problems involving the interaction of soil microorganisms with plant roots to form symbiotic structures. One was concerned with the developmental ecology and biology of the root nodule of alder and the second was concerned with the ectotrophic mycorrhizal structure on forest trees, especially pines. In both, the fluorescent antibody detection of the microbial symbiont both as a free living form in soil, and as a root inhabiting form in the higher plant was emphasized. A third aspect of the research involved the detection of autotrophic ammonia oxidizing microorganisms in soil.

Schmidt, E. L.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Another Approach to Enhance Airline Safety: Using Management Safety Tools

The ultimate goal of conducting an accident investigation is to prevent similar accidents from happening again and to make operations safer system-wide. Based on the findings extracted from the investigation, the "lesson learned" becomes a genuine part of the safety database making risk management available to safety analysts. The airline industry is no exception. In the US, the FAA has advocated the usage of the System Safety concept in enhancing safety since 2000. Yet, in today s usage of System Safety, the airline industry mainly focuses on risk management, which is a reactive process of the System Safety discipline. In order to extend the merit of System Safety and to prevent accidents beforehand, a specific System Safety tool needs to be applied; so a model of hazard prediction can be formed. To do so, the authors initiated this study by reviewing 189 final accident reports from the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) covering FAR Part 121 scheduled operations. The discovered accident causes (direct hazards) were categorized into 10 groups Flight Operations, Ground Crew, Turbulence, Maintenance, Foreign Object Damage (FOD), Flight Attendant, Air Traffic Control, Manufacturer, Passenger, and Federal Aviation Administration. These direct hazards were associated with 36 root factors prepared for an error-elimination model using Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), a leading tool for System Safety experts. An FTA block-diagram model was created, followed by a probability simulation of accidents. Five case studies and reports were provided in order to fully demonstrate the usefulness of System Safety tools in promoting airline safety.

Lu, Chien-tsug↗
NASA NTRS1990

Efficient algorithms for dilated mappings of binary trees

The problem is addressed to find a 1-1 mapping of the vertices of a binary tree onto those of a target binary tree such that the son of a node on the first binary tree is mapped onto a descendent of the image of that node in the second binary tree. There are two natural measures of the cost of this mapping, namely the dilation cost, i.e., the maximum distance in the target binary tree between the images of vertices that are adjacent in the original tree. The other measure, expansion cost, is defined as the number of extra nodes/edges to be added to the target binary tree in order to ensure a 1-1 mapping. An efficient algorithm to find a mapping of one binary tree onto another is described. It is shown that it is possible to minimize one cost of mapping at the expense of the other. This problem arises when designing pipelined arithmetic logic units (ALU) for special purpose computers. The pipeline is composed of ALU chips connected in the form of a binary tree. The operands to the pipeline can be supplied to the leaf nodes of the binary tree which then process and pass the results up to their parents. The final result is available at the root. As each new application may require a distinct nesting of operations, it is useful to be able to find a good mapping of a new binary tree over existing ALU tree. Another problem arises if every distinct required binary tree is known beforehand. Here it is useful to hardwire the pipeline in the form of a minimal supertree that contains all required binary trees.

Iqbal, M. Ashraf↗
NASA NTRS2016

DeepSAT: A Deep Learning Approach to Tree-Cover Delineation in 1-m NAIP Imagery for the Continental United States

High resolution tree cover classification maps are needed to increase the accuracy of current land ecosystem and climate model outputs. Limited studies are in place that demonstrates the state-of-the-art in deriving very high resolution (VHR) tree cover products. In addition, most methods heavily rely on commercial softwares that are difficult to scale given the region of study (e.g. continents to globe). Complexities in present approaches relate to (a) scalability of the algorithm, (b) large image data processing (compute and memory intensive), (c) computational cost, (d) massively parallel architecture, and (e) machine learning automation. In addition, VHR satellite datasets are of the order of terabytes and features extracted from these datasets are of the order of petabytes. In our present study, we have acquired the National Agriculture Imagery Program (NAIP) dataset for the Continental United States at a spatial resolution of 1-m. This data comes as image tiles (a total of quarter million image scenes with ~60 million pixels) and has a total size of ~65 terabytes for a single acquisition. Features extracted from the entire dataset would amount to ~8-10 petabytes. In our proposed approach, we have implemented a novel semi-automated machine learning algorithm rooted on the principles of "deep learning" to delineate the percentage of tree cover. Using the NASA Earth Exchange (NEX) initiative, we have developed an end-to-end architecture by integrating a segmentation module based on Statistical Region Merging, a classification algorithm using Deep Belief Network and a structured prediction algorithm using Conditional Random Fields to integrate the results from the segmentation and classification modules to create per-pixel class labels. The training process is scaled up using the power of GPUs and the prediction is scaled to quarter million NAIP tiles spanning the whole of Continental United States using the NEX HPC supercomputing cluster. An initial pilot over the state of California spanning a total of 11,095 NAIP tiles covering a total geographical area of 163,696 sq. miles has produced true positive rates of around 88 percent for fragmented forests and 74 percent for urban tree cover areas, with false positive rates lower than 2 percent for both landscapes.

Imagery↗
NASA NTRS2010

Understanding the Scalability of Bayesian Network Inference Using Clique Tree Growth Curves

One of the main approaches to performing computation in Bayesian networks (BNs) is clique tree clustering and propagation. The clique tree approach consists of propagation in a clique tree compiled from a Bayesian network, and while it was introduced in the 1980s, there is still a lack of understanding of how clique tree computation time depends on variations in BN size and structure. In this article, we improve this understanding by developing an approach to characterizing clique tree growth as a function of parameters that can be computed in polynomial time from BNs, specifically: (i) the ratio of the number of a BN s non-root nodes to the number of root nodes, and (ii) the expected number of moral edges in their moral graphs. Analytically, we partition the set of cliques in a clique tree into different sets, and introduce a growth curve for the total size of each set. For the special case of bipartite BNs, there are two sets and two growth curves, a mixed clique growth curve and a root clique growth curve. In experiments, where random bipartite BNs generated using the BPART algorithm are studied, we systematically increase the out-degree of the root nodes in bipartite Bayesian networks, by increasing the number of leaf nodes. Surprisingly, root clique growth is well-approximated by Gompertz growth curves, an S-shaped family of curves that has previously been used to describe growth processes in biology, medicine, and neuroscience. We believe that this research improves the understanding of the scaling behavior of clique tree clustering for a certain class of Bayesian networks; presents an aid for trade-off studies of clique tree clustering using growth curves; and ultimately provides a foundation for benchmarking and developing improved BN inference and machine learning algorithms.

Mengshoel, Ole J.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Achieving Improved Reliability with Failure Analysis

Reliability is the ability of a product to properly function, within specified performance limits, for a specified period of time, under the life cycle application conditions. Failure analysis is a vital tool in the effort to ensure reliability of electronic products and systems throughout their product lifecycle. Today, organizations involved in activities within the electronics supply chain are facing new challenges, not just from complex assembly styles, harsher lifecycle environments, and sophisticated supply chains, but also from customers who are demanding a quicker turn-around. Unfortunately, root cause failure analysis is often performed incompletely, leading to a poor understanding of failure mechanisms and causes and, customer dissatisfaction due to recurring failures. The PDC (Professional Development Course) starts with an introduction to reliability concepts, physics of failure and an overview of failure mechanisms that affect PCBs (Printed Circuit Boards), PCBAs (Printed Circuit Board Assembly) and components. The PDC then dives into root cause hypothesizing techniques (Pareto, FMEA (Failure Modes and Effects Analysis), fishbone (Cause-And-Effect Diagram), FTA (Fault Tree Analysis)), non-destructive and destructive analysis and, materials characterization will be discussed. Numerous failure analysis case studies will be used to illustrate the techniques and analysis principles to arrive at the root cause(s) of field failures on printed circuit boards, active components, and assemblies. What Attendees will Learn: Topics include: Overview of Reliability Concepts Failure mechanisms of electronic products Root cause analysis Failure analysis techniques -Non-destructive techniques (optical, CSAM (Confocal Scanning Electron Microscopy) etc.) -Destructive analysis (DPA (Destructive Physical Analysis), Decap (Decapsulation), FIB (Focused Ion Beam) etc.) -Materials characterization (XRF (X-Ray Fluorescence) , EDS (Error Detection Sequential), TMA/DSC (Thermal Mechanical Analysis/Differential Scanning Calorimetry) etc.)

PCB quality↗
NASA NTRS2009

Understanding the Scalability of Bayesian Network Inference using Clique Tree Growth Curves

Bayesian networks (BNs) are used to represent and efficiently compute with multi-variate probability distributions in a wide range of disciplines. One of the main approaches to perform computation in BNs is clique tree clustering and propagation. In this approach, BN computation consists of propagation in a clique tree compiled from a Bayesian network. There is a lack of understanding of how clique tree computation time, and BN computation time in more general, depends on variations in BN size and structure. On the one hand, complexity results tell us that many interesting BN queries are NP-hard or worse to answer, and it is not hard to find application BNs where the clique tree approach in practice cannot be used. On the other hand, it is well-known that tree-structured BNs can be used to answer probabilistic queries in polynomial time. In this article, we develop an approach to characterizing clique tree growth as a function of parameters that can be computed in polynomial time from BNs, specifically: (i) the ratio of the number of a BN's non-root nodes to the number of root nodes, or (ii) the expected number of moral edges in their moral graphs. Our approach is based on combining analytical and experimental results. Analytically, we partition the set of cliques in a clique tree into different sets, and introduce a growth curve for each set. For the special case of bipartite BNs, we consequently have two growth curves, a mixed clique growth curve and a root clique growth curve. In experiments, we systematically increase the degree of the root nodes in bipartite Bayesian networks, and find that root clique growth is well-approximated by Gompertz growth curves. It is believed that this research improves the understanding of the scaling behavior of clique tree clustering, provides a foundation for benchmarking and developing improved BN inference and machine learning algorithms, and presents an aid for analytical trade-off studies of clique tree clustering using growth curves.

Mengshoel, Ole Jakob↗
NASA NTRS2009

MODIS Tree Cover Validation for the Circumpolar Taiga-Tundra Transition Zone

A validation of the 2005 500m MODIS vegetation continuous fields (VCF) tree cover product in the circumpolar taiga-tundra ecotone was performed using high resolution Quickbird imagery. Assessing the VCF's performance near the northern limits of the boreal forest can help quantify the accuracy of the product within this vegetation transition area. The circumpolar region was divided into longitudinal zones and validation sites were selected in areas of varying tree cover where Quickbird imagery is available in Google Earth. Each site was linked to the corresponding VCF pixel and overlaid with a regular dot grid within the VCF pixel's boundary to estimate percent tree crown cover in the area. Percent tree crown cover was estimated using Quickbird imagery for 396 sites throughout the circumpolar region and related to the VCF's estimates of canopy cover for 2000-2005. Regression results of VCF inter-annual comparisons (2000-2005) and VCF-Quickbird image-interpreted estimates indicate that: (1) Pixel-level, inter-annual comparisons of VCF estimates of percent canopy cover were linearly related (mean R(sup 2) = 0.77) and exhibited an average root mean square error (RMSE) of 10.1 % and an average root mean square difference (RMSD) of 7.3%. (2) A comparison of image-interpreted percent tree crown cover estimates based on dot counts on Quickbird color images by two different interpreters were more variable (R(sup 2) = 0.73, RMSE = 14.8%, RMSD = 18.7%) than VCF inter-annual comparisons. (3) Across the circumpolar boreal region, 2005 VCF-Quickbird comparisons were linearly related, with an R(sup 2) = 0.57, a RMSE = 13.4% and a RMSD = 21.3%, with a tendency to over-estimate areas of low percent tree cover and anomalous VCF results in Scandinavia. The relationship of the VCF estimates and ground reference indicate to potential users that the VCF's tree cover values for individual pixels, particularly those below 20% tree cover, may not be precise enough to monitor 500m pixel-level tree cover in the taiga-tundra transition zone.

Montesano, P. M.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Fir Decline and Mortality in the Southern Siberian Mountains

Increased dieback and mortality of dark needle conifer (DNC) stands (composed of fir (Abies sibirica),Siberian pine (Pinus sibirica) and spruce (Picea obovata)) were documented in Russia during recent decades. Here we analyzed spatial and temporal patterns of fir decline and mortality in the southern Siberian Mountains based on satellite, in situ and dendrochronological data. The studied stands are located within the boundary between DNC taiga to the north and forest-steppe to the south. Fir decline and mortality were observed to originate where topographic features contributed to maximal water-stress risk, i.e., steep (18 deg to 25 deg), convex, south-facing slopes with a shallow well-drained root zone. Fir regeneration survived droughts and increased stem radial growth, while upper canopy trees died. Tree ring width (TRW) growth negatively correlated with vapor pressure deficit (VPD), drought index and occurrence of late frosts, and positively with soil water content. Previous year growth conditions (i.e., drought index, VPD, soil water anomalies) have a high impact on current TRW (r = 0.60 to 0.74). Fir mortality was induced by increased water stress and severe droughts (as a primary factor) in synergy with bark-beetles and fungi attacks (as secondary factors). Dendrochronology data indicated that fir mortality is a periodic process. In a future climate with increased aridity and drought frequency, fir (and Siberian pine) may disappear from portions of its current range (primarily within the boundary with the forest- steppe) and is likely to be replaced by drought-tolerant species such as Pinus sylvestris and Larix sibirica.

conifer mortality↗
NASA NTRS2016

Fir Decline and Mortality in the Southern Siberian Mountains

Increased dieback and mortality of dark needle conifer (DNC) stands (composed of fir (Abies sibirica),Siberian pine (Pinus sibirica) and spruce (Picea obovata))were documented in Russia during recent decades. Here we analyzed spatial and temporal patterns of fir decline and mortality in the southern Siberian Mountains based on satellite, in situ and dendrochronological data. The studied stands are located within the boundary between DNC taiga to the north and forest-steppe to the south. Fir decline and mortality were observed to originate where topographic features contributed to maximal water-stress risk, i.e., steep (1825),convex, south-facing slopes with a shallow well-drained root zone. Fir regeneration survived droughts and increased stem radial growth, while upper canopy trees died. Tree ring width(TRW) growth negatively correlated with vapor pressure deficit (VPD), drought index and occurrence of late frosts, and positively with soil water content. Previous year growth conditions (i.e., drought index, VPD, soil water anomalies)have a high impact on current TRW (r 0.600.74). Fir mortality was induced by increased water stress and severe droughts (as a primary factor) in synergy with bark-beetles and fungi attacks (as secondary factors). Dendrochronology data indicated that fir mortality is a periodic process. In a future climate with increased aridity and drought frequency, fir (and Siberian pine) may disappear from portions of its current range (primarily within the boundary with the forest steppe)and is likely to be replaced by drought-tolerant species such as Pinus sylvestris and Larix sibirica.

Kharuk, Viacheslav I.↗