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At least 55 records · Page 3

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NASA NTRS1979

A cross impact methodology for the assessment of US telecommunications system with application to fiber optics development: Executive summary

A cross impact model of the U.S. telecommunications system was developed. For this model, it was necessary to prepare forecasts of the major segments of the telecommunications system, such as satellites, telephone, TV, CATV, radio broadcasting, etc. In addition, forecasts were prepared of the traffic generated by a variety of new or expanded services, such as electronic check clearing and point of sale electronic funds transfer. Finally, the interactions among the forecasts were estimated (the cross impacts). Both the forecasts and the cross impacts were used as inputs to the cross impact model, which could then be used to stimulate the future growth of the entire U.S. telecommunications system. By varying the inputs, technology changes or policy decisions with regard to any segment of the system could be evaluated in the context of the remainder of the system. To illustrate the operation of the model, a specific study was made of the deployment of fiber optics, throughout the telecommunications system.

Martino, J. P.↗

NASA NTRS1979

A cross impact methodology for the assessment of US telecommunications system with application to fiber optics development, volume 1

A cross impact model of the U.S. telecommunications system was developed. It was necessary to prepare forecasts of the major segments of the telecommunications system, such as satellites, telephone, TV, CATV, radio broadcasting, etc. In addition, forecasts were prepared of the traffic generated by a variety of new or expanded services, such as electronic check clearing and point of sale electronic funds transfer. Finally, the interactions among the forecasts were estimated (the cross impact). Both the forecasts and the cross impacts were used as inputs to the cross impact model, which could then be used to stimulate the future growth of the entire U.S. telecommunications system. By varying the inputs, technology changes or policy decisions with regard to any segment of the system could be evaluated in the context of the remainder of the system. To illustrate the operation of the model, a specific study was made of the deployment of fiber optics throughout the telecommunications system.

Martino, J. P.↗

NASA NTRS1978

Market definition studies for photovoltaic highway applications

Prospects for solar electric power in applications related to highways within the continental United States are examined. Principal prospective users are found to be the highway departments of the various states. Economic analysis is employed to demonstrate that suitable applications can occur when powering apparatus such as signs, crossing signals, or instruments which consume less than 100 watts on the average, provided they are located at least one-half mile from existing utility power. Such applications are projected to occur two or three times per state per year. Attitudes of highway officials toward possible use of solar power are sampled and described. Although falling photovoltaic cell prices are expected to have little effect on sales potential here, methods for federal stimulation of this market are discussed.

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NASA NTRS1979

A study of the cost-effective markets for new technology agricultural aircraft

A previously developed data base was used to estimate the regional and total U.S. cost-effective markets for a new technology agricultural aircraft as incorporating features which could result from NASA-sponsored aerial applications research. The results show that the long-term market penetration of a new technology aircraft would be near 3,000 aircraft. This market penetration would be attained in approximately 20 years. Annual sales would be about 200 aircraft after 5 to 6 years of introduction. The net present value of cost savings benefit which this aircraft would yield (measured on an infinite horizon basis) would be about $35 million counted at a 10 percent discount rate and $120 million at a 5 percent discount rate. At both discount rates the present value of cost savings exceeds the present value of research and development (R&D) costs estimated for the development of the technology base needed for the proposed aircraft. These results are quite conservative as they have been derived neglecting future growth in the agricultural aviation industry, which has been averaging about 12 percent per year over the past several years.

Hazelrigg, G. A., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Near-term hybrid vehicle program, phase 1. Appendix A: Mission analysis and performance specification studies report

Results of a study leading to the preliminary design of a five passenger hybrid vehicle utilizing two energy sources (electricity and gasoline/diesel fuel) to minimize petroleum usage on a fleet basis are presented. The study methodology is described. Vehicle characterizations, the mission description, characterization, and impact on potential sales, and the rationale for the selection of the reference internal combustion engine vehicle are presented. Conclusions and recommendations of the mission analysis and performance specification report are included.

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NASA NTRS1980

New technologies for solar energy silicon - Cost analysis of BCL process

New technologies for producing polysilicon are being developed to provide lower cost material for solar cells which convert sunlight into electricity. This article presents results for the BCL Process, which produces the solar-cell silicon by reduction of silicon tetrachloride with zinc vapor. Cost, sensitivity, and profitability analysis results are presented based on a preliminary process design of a plant to produce 1000 metric tons/year of silicon by the BCL Process. Profitability analysis indicates a sales price of $12.1-19.4 per kg of silicon (1980 dollars) at a 0-25 per cent DCF rate of return on investment after taxes. These results indicate good potential for meeting the goal of providing lower cost material for silicon solar cells.

Yaws, C. L.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Assessment of the impact of advanced air-transport technology

The long term prospects for commercial supersonic transportation appear attractive enough to keep supersonic research active and reasonably healthy. On the other hand, the uncertainties surrounding an advanced supersonic transport, (AST) specifically fuel price, fuel availability and noise, are too significant to warrant an accelerated research and development program until they are better resolved. It is estimated that an AST could capture about $50 billion (1979 dollars) of the potential $150 billion in sales up to the year 2010.

Maxwell, R. L.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Solar heating and cooling system installed at RKL Controls Company, Lumberton, New Jersey

The final results of the design and operation of a computer controlled solar heated and cooled 40,000 square foot manufacturing building, sales office, and computer control center/display room are summarized. The system description, test data, major problems and resolutions, performance, operation and maintenance manual, equipment manufacturers' literature, and as-built drawings are presented. The solar system is composed of 6,000 square feet of flat plate collectors, external above ground storage subsystem, controls, absorption chiller, heat recovery, and a cooling tower.

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NASA NTRS1981

Market assessment of photovoltaic power systems for agricultural applications in the Philippines

The market potential in the Philippines for stand alone photovoltaic (P/V) systems in agriculture was assessed. Applications include: irrigation, postharvest operation, food and fiber processing and storage, and livestock and fisheries operations. Power and energy use profiles for many applications as well as assessments of business, government and financial climate for P/V sales are described. Many characteristics of the Philippine agriculture and energy sector favorably influence the use of P/V systems. However, serious and significant barriers prevent achieving the technically feasible, cost competitive market for P/V systems in the agricultural sector. The reason for the small market is the limited availability capital for financing P/V systems. It is suggested that innovative financing schemes and promotional campaigns should be devised.

Cabraal, R. A.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Market assessment of photovoltaic power systems for agricultural applications in Nigeria

The market potential for stand-alone photovoltaic systems in agriculture was studied. Information is presented on technical and economically feasible applications, and assessments of the business, government and financial climate for photovoltaic sales. It is concluded that the market for stand-alone systems will be large because of the availability of captial and the high premium placed on high reliability, low maintenance power systems. Various specific applications are described, mostly related to agriculture.

Staples, D.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Restructuring the US telecommunications industry - Impact on innovation

The Communications Act of 1934, which regulates the United States telecommunications industry, is becoming less able to deal with the changes brought by modern technology. Therefore, proposals are being made to restructure the industry. Breaking up AT&T into smaller firms would have only minor effects, since its ratio of R and D to sales has been near the median for large telephone companies. Restructuring AT&T into subsidiaries dealing at arms' length might cause a reordering of priorities toward more directly marketable and useful products, but too extensive a break-up could endanger Bell Labs' commitment to basic research. Regulation leads a firm to ignore true social value of possible products, expand into low profit markets, and favor capital-intensive over labor-intensive innovation. If regulatory lag occurs, a firm will produce cost-reducing innovation in order to increase its profit.

Agnew, C. E.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Market assessment of photovoltaic power systems for agricultural applications worldwide

Agricultural sector PV market assessments conducted in the Phillippines, Nigeria, Mexico, Morocco, and Colombia are extrapolated worldwide. The types of applications evaluated are those requiring less than 15 kW of power and operate in a stand alone mode. The major conclusions were as follows: PV will be competitive in applications requiring 2 to 3 kW of power prior to 1983; by 1986 PV system competitiveness will extend to applications requiring 4 to 6 kW of power, due to capital constraints, the private sector market may be restricted to applications requiring less than about 2 kW of power; the ultimate purchase of larger systems will be governments, either through direct purchase or loans from development banks. Though fragmented, a significant agriculture sector market for PV exists; however, the market for PV in telecommunications, signalling, rural services, and TV will be larger. Major market related factors influencing the potential for U.S. PV Sales are: lack of awareness; high first costs; shortage of long term capital; competition from German, French and Japanese companies who have government support; and low fuel prices in capital surplus countries. Strategies that may aid in overcoming some of these problems are: setting up of a trade association aimed at overcoming problems due to lack of awareness, innovative financing schemes such as lease arrangements, and designing products to match current user needs as opposed to attempting to change consumer behavior.

Cabraal, A.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Aeronautics systems technology studies

Data collection and analysis in the areas of air transportation, aircraft manufacturing and sales, airline operations, market projections, internal trade, and energy consumption; legislation and regulations, technology needs; surveys; decision-making; cost analyses; and technology transfer are discussed.

Bauchspies, J. S.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Great prospects for fiber optics sensors

Fiber optic sensors provide noise immunity and galvanic insulation at the measurement point. Interest in such sensors is increasing for these reasons. In the United States sales are expected to increase from 12 million dollars in 1981 to 180 million in 1991. Interferometric sensors based on single modus fibers deliver extremely high sensitivity, while sensors based on multi-modus fibers are more easily manufactured. The fiber optic sensors which are available today are based on point measurements. Development of fiber optic sensors in Norway is being carried out at the Central institute and has resulted in the development of medical manometers which are now undergoing clinical testing.

Hansen, T. E.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Assessment of institutional barriers to the use of natural gas fuel in automotive vehicle fleets

Institutional barriers to the use of natural gas as a fuel for motor vehicle fleets were identified. Recommendations for barrier removal were developed. Eight types of institutional barriers were assessed: (1) lack of a national standard for the safe design and certification of natural gas vehicles and refueling stations; (2) excessively conservative or misapplied state and local regulations, including bridge and tunnel restrictions, restrictions on types of vehicles that may be fueled by natural gas, zoning regulations that prohibit operation of refueling stations, parking restrictions, application of LPG standards to LNG vehicles, and unintentionally unsafe vehicle or refueling station requirements; (3) need for clarification of EPA's tampering enforcement policy; (4) the U.S. hydrocarbon standard; (5) uncertainty concerning state utility commission jurisdiction; (6) sale for resale prohibitions imposed by natural gas utility companies or state utility commissions; (7) uncertainty of the effects of conversions to natural gas on vehicle manufactures warranties; and (8) need for a natural gas to gasoline equivalent units conversion factor for use in calculation of state road use taxes.

Jablonski, J.↗

NASA NTRS1984

The future of satellite remote sensing: A worldwide assessment and prediction

A frame-work in which to assess and predict the future prospects for satellite remote sensing markets is provided. The scope of the analysis is the satellite-related market for data, equipment, and services. It encompasses both domestic and international markets and contains an examination of the various market characteristics by market segment (e.g., Federal Government, State and Local Governments, Academic Organizations, Industrial Companies, and Individuals) and primary applications areas (e.g., Geology, Forestry, Land Resource Management, Agriculture and Cartography). The forecasts are derived from an analysis of both U.S. and foreign market data. The evolution and current status of U.S. and Foreign markets to arrive at market growth rates is evaluated. Circumstances and events which are likely to affect the future market development are examined. A market growth scenario is presented that is consistent with past data sales trends and takes into account the dynamic nature of the future satellite remote sensing market. Several areas of current and future business opportunities available in this market are discussed. Specific worldwide forecasts are presented in three market sectors for the period 1980 to 1990.

Spann, G. W.↗

NASA NTRS1983

NASA photography index

An index of photographs and descriptions of their content from various NASA missions is presented. All photographs are available free to the media upon request and for sale to the general public.

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NASA NTRS1984

Timber inventory using Landsat

The results of recent efforts to apply Landsat MSS imagery, in concert with topological maps, to forestry timber inventories via the FOCIS program are reported. FOCIS (Forests Classification and Inventory System) was defined for inventorying the lumber volume of coniferous tree types in rugged terrain regions. Data from four bands serve as input for unsupervised clustering and iterative labeling of the elevation, slope angle, and subregions of interest. Simulated photographic maps are generated which serve as overlays for regular maps for assessing timber harvests and sales goals. Sample procedures followed in mapping the Eldorado region forests in the Sierra Nevada mountains are discussed.

Strahler, A. H.↗