Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “scenario framework”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2006

A Test of Sensitivity to Convective Transport in a Global Atmospheric CO2 Simulation

Two approximations to convective transport have been implemented in an offline chemistry transport model (CTM) to explore the impact on calculated atmospheric CO2 distributions. GlobalCO2 in the year 2000 is simulated using theCTM driven by assimilated meteorological fields from the NASA s Goddard Earth Observation System Data Assimilation System, Version 4 (GEOS-4). The model simulates atmospheric CO2 by adopting the same CO2 emission inventory and dynamical modules as described in Kawa et al. (convective transport scheme denoted as Conv1). Conv1 approximates the convective transport by using the bulk convective mass fluxes to redistribute trace gases. The alternate approximation, Conv2, partitions fluxes into updraft and downdraft, as well as into entrainment and detrainment, and has potential to yield a more realistic simulation of vertical redistribution through deep convection. Replacing Conv1 by Conv2 results in an overestimate of CO2 over biospheric sink regions. The largest discrepancies result in a CO2 difference of about 7.8 ppm in the July NH boreal forest, which is about 30% of the CO2 seasonality for that area. These differences are compared to those produced by emission scenario variations constrained by the framework of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to account for possible land use change and residual terrestrial CO2 sink. It is shown that the overestimated CO2 driven by Conv2 can be offset by introducing these supplemental emissions.

Bian, H.↗
NASA NTRS2019

A Joint NICER and XMM-Newton View of the "Magnificent" Thermally Emitting X-ray Isolated Neutron Star RX J1605.3+3249

Thermally emitting X-ray isolated neutron stars (NSs) represent excellent targets for testing cooling surface emission and atmosphere models, which are used to infer the physical parameters of the NS. Among the seven known members of this class, RXJ1605.3+3249 is the only one that still lacks confirmation of its spin period. Here we analyze NICER and XMM-Newton observations of RXJ1605.3+3249, in order to address its timing and spectral behavior. Contrary to a previous tentative detection, but in agreement with the recent work by Pires et al., we find no significant pulsation with a pulsed fraction higher than 1.3% (3σ) for periods above 150 ms. We also find a limit of 2.6% for periods above 2 ms, despite searches in different energy bands. The X-ray spectrum can be fit by either a double-blackbody model or by a single-temperature magnetized atmosphere model, both modified by a Gaussian absorption line at ∼0.44 keV. The origin of the absorption feature as a proton cyclotron line or as an atomic transition in the NS atmosphere is discussed. The predictions of the best-fit X-ray models extended to IR, optical, and UV bands, are compared with archival data. Our results are interpreted in the framework of a fallback disk scenario.

Christian Malacaria↗
NASA NTRS2012

Using Game Theoretic Models to Predict Pilot Behavior in NextGen Merging and Landing Scenario

In this paper, we present an implementation of the Semi Network-Form Game framework to predict pilot behavior in a merging and landing scenario. In this scenario, two aircraft are approaching to a freeze horizon with approximately equal distance when they become aware of each other via an ADS-B communication link that will be available in NextGen airspace. Both pilots want to gain advantage over the other by entering the freeze horizon earlier and obtain the first place in landing. They re-adjust their speed accordingly. However, they cannot simply increase their speed to the maximum allowable values since they are concerned with safety, separation distance, effort, possibility of being vectored-off from landing and possibility of violating speed constraints. We present how to model these concerns and the rest of the system using semi network-from game framework. Using this framework, based on certain assumptions on pilot utility functions and on system configuration, we provide estimates of pilot behavior and overall system evolution in time. We also discuss the possible employment of this modeling tool for airspace design optimization. To support this discussion, we provide a case where we investigate the effect of increasing the merging point speed limit on the commanded speed distribution and on the percentage of vectored aircraft.

Yildiz, Yildiray↗
NASA NTRS2011

Optimizing Decision Preparedness by Adapting Scenario Complexity and Automating Scenario Generation

Klein's recognition-primed decision (RPD) framework proposes that experts make decisions by recognizing similarities between current decision situations and previous decision experiences. Unfortunately, military personnel arQ often presented with situations that they have not experienced before. Scenario-based training (S8T) can help mitigate this gap. However, SBT remains a challenging and inefficient training approach. To address these limitations, the authors present an innovative formulation of scenario complexity that contributes to the larger research goal of developing an automated scenario generation system. This system will enable trainees to effectively advance through a variety of increasingly complex decision situations and experiences. By adapting scenario complexities and automating generation, trainees will be provided with a greater variety of appropriately calibrated training events, thus broadening their repositories of experience. Preliminary results from empirical testing (N=24) of the proof-of-concept formula are presented, and future avenues of scenario complexity research are also discussed.

Dunne, Rob↗
NASA NTRS2019

Constraint-Based Off-Nominal Behavior Modeling for Europa Clipper

The risk analysis for the Europa Clipper mission evaluates the probability of mission failure based on the failure rates of individual components and dependencies among them. The probabilities are calculated by integrating over the intervals of time within which a fault occurs, accounting for an infinite number of cases. The response of the spacecraft to different faults can result in different schedules of activities, changing the intervals of integration. Europa currently uses models of spacecraft systems and components to simulate individual flight scenarios. The goal is to develop a framework for integrating, automating, and improving this modeling process. We describe an approach to generating the schedules for the different fault cases and determining the intervals for faults. It is not enough to just simulate individual cases because we are working with continuous variables that generate an infinite number of possible futures. Instead, we determine time windows within which certain faults can occur and use these time windows as bounds for integration. We found that determining these time windows is a constraint optimization problem. In order to represent these problems, we employ a language based on ontologies of behavior and scenarios. The language enables us to specify constraints in a simple, declarative syntax. A constraint-based analysis engine uses the declarative specification to identify bounds on system parameters and fill in details of behavior. For example, we created a detailed model of power generation, power use, and the corresponding effects on the battery in order to determine when an undervoltage fault can occur. An undervoltage during a trajectory correction maneuver requires that thrusting be interrupted for just enough time to recharge the battery such that the maneuver can be completed within battery limits. This behavior is generated based on the model to minimize the interruption time. For certain scenarios the constraint optimization problems were simple enough to be solved by hand, but the framework made the process substantially faster. It also produced solutions to other problems that we could not solve by hand or with existing tools and allowed us to generate and run many scenarios at once. The scenario language and engine greatly simplified the process of identifying time bounds and separating cases.

Everline, Chester J.↗
NASA NTRS1980

A methodology for long-range prediction of air transportation

A framework and methodology for long term projection of demand for aviation fuels is presented. The approach taken includes two basic components. The first was a new technique for establishing the socio-economic environment within which the future aviation industry is embedded. The concept utilized was a definition of an overall societal objective for the very long run future. Within a framework so defined, a set of scenarios by which the future will unfold are then written. These scenarios provide the determinants of the air transport industry operations and accordingly provide an assessment of future fuel requirements. The second part was the modeling of the industry in terms of an abstracted set of variables to represent the overall industry performance on a macro scale. The model was validated by testing the desired output variables from the model with historical data over the past decades.

Ayati, M. B.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Space power subsystem automation technology

The technology issues involved in power subsystem automation and the reasonable objectives to be sought in such a program were discussed. The complexities, uncertainties, and alternatives of power subsystem automation, along with the advantages from both an economic and a technological perspective were considered. Whereas most spacecraft power subsystems now use certain automated functions, the idea of complete autonomy for long periods of time is almost inconceivable. Thus, it seems prudent that the technology program for power subsystem automation be based upon a growth scenario which should provide a structured framework of deliberate steps to enable the evolution of space power subsystems from the current practice of limited autonomy to a greater use of automation with each step being justified on a cost/benefit basis. Each accomplishment should move toward the objectives of decreased requirement for ground control, increased system reliability through onboard management, and ultimately lower energy cost through longer life systems that require fewer resources to operate and maintain. This approach seems well-suited to the evolution of more sophisticated algorithms and eventually perhaps even the use of some sort of artificial intelligence. Multi-hundred kilowatt systems of the future will probably require an advanced level of autonomy if they are to be affordable and manageable.

Graves, J. R.↗
NASA NTRS1988

An Investigation of the Ability to Recover from Transients Following Failures for Single-Pilot Rotorcraft

A moving-base simulation was conducted to investigate a pilot's ability to recover from transients following single-axis hard-over failures of the flight-control system. The investigation was performed in conjunction with a host simulation that examined the influence of control modes on a single pilot's ability to perform various mission elements under high-workload conditions. The NASA Ames large-amplitude-motion Vertical Motion Simulator (VMS) was utilized, and the experimental variables were the failure axis, the severity of the failure, and the airspeed at which the failure occurred. Other factors, such as pilot workload and terrain and obstacle proximity at the time of failure, were kept as constant as possible within the framework of the host simulation task scenarios. No explicit failure warnings were presented to the pilot. Data from the experiment are shown, and pilot ratings are compared with the proposed handling-qualities requirements for military rotorcraft. Results indicate that the current proposed failure transient requirements may need revision.

Mansur, M. Hossein↗
NASA NTRS2000

The Geologic History of Mars: An Astrobiology Perspective

Fourteen SNC meteorites contain information which must be incorporated with recent spaceflight data for developing Mars' geologic history. SNCs have crystallization ages of 4500 to 160 m.y. Tle oldest meteorite ALH84001 contains information on the Noachian period of Mars' history. There are no meteorites from the Hesperian period and the remaining 13 meteorites fall into two age groups within the Amazonian: The nakhlites around 1300 m.y. and the shergottites between 800-160 m.y. Oxygen isotopic analysis of Martian samples shows two distinct O2 reservoirs throughout Martian history indicating late additions of volatiles and a lack of plate tectonics prior to 3.9 Gy. Evidence for percolation of aqueous brines through impact-produced fractures in the rocky surface is contained in the 3.9 Gy-old ALH84001 carbonate deposits. These carbonates precipitated at approx. 100 C. At this time life had already evolved on Earth. Early Mars could have hosted life similar to the bacteria that inhabited early Earth. Potential microorganisms could have been transported into fractures by carbonate-bearing waters and their remains could have become incorporated into the precipitated carbonate. Since Mars had a weak magnetic field at this time, it can be hypothesized that some of the Martian microorganisms may have been similar to terrestrial magnetotactic bacteria. Over geologic time episodic cratering, and tectonic events have occurred on Mars along with the periodic release of subsurface waters which may have produced clays within SNC meteorites. The geochemical data contained within SNC meteorites complements previous observational data and the recent Mars Global Surveyor data to provide a geological and environmental history which spans almost the entire lifespan on Mars. One of the outstanding features of this model is the possible creation of an early (about 4 Gy) volatile reservoir distinct from the outgassed Mars volatiles, and the persistence of this reservoir throughout most, if not all of subsequent Mars' history. Within the framework of this history a potential scenario for a possible record of living organisms is provided by suggestive structures and organic signatures trapped within secondary mineral deposits and alteration features of some SNC meteorites. Tracing the differences in oxygen isotopic compositions within Martian components allows us to gain insight in the history of Mars.

Gibson, Everett K.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Assessing Space Exploration Technology Requirements as a First Step Towards Ensuring Technology Readiness for International Cooperation in Space Exploration

Advancing critical and enhancing technologies is considered essential to enabling sustainable and affordable human space exploration. Critical technologies are those that enable a certain class of mission, such as technologies necessary for safe landing on the Martian surface, advanced propulsion, and closed loop life support. Others enhance the mission by leading to a greater satisfaction of mission objectives or increased probability of mission success. Advanced technologies are needed to reduce mass and cost. Many space agencies have studied exploration mission architectures and scenarios with the resulting lists of critical and enhancing technologies being very similar. With this in mind, and with the recognition that human space exploration will only be enabled by agencies working together to address these challenges, interested agencies participating in the International Space Exploration Coordination Group (ISECG) have agreed to perform a technology assessment as an important step in exploring cooperation opportunities for future exploration mission scenarios. "The Global Exploration Strategy: The Framework for Coordination" was developed by fourteen space agencies and released in May 2007. Since the fall of 2008, several International Space Exploration Coordination Group (ISECG) participating space agencies have been studying concepts for human exploration of the moon. They have identified technologies considered critical and enhancing of sustainable space exploration. Technologies such as in-situ resource utilization, advanced power generation/energy storage systems, reliable dust resistant mobility systems, and closed loop life support systems are important examples. Similarly, agencies such as NASA, ESA, and Russia have studied Mars exploration missions and identified critical technologies. They recognize that human and robotic precursor missions to destinations such as LEO, moon, and near earth objects provide opportunities to demonstrate the technologies needed for Mars mission. Agencies see the importance of assessing gaps and overlaps in their plans to advance technologies in order to leverage their investments and enable exciting missions as soon as practical. They see the importance of respecting the ability of any agency to invest in any technologies considered interesting or strategic. This paper will describe the importance of developing an appropriate international strategy for technology development and ideas for effective mechanisms for advancing an international strategy. This work will both inform and be informed by the development of an ISECG Global Exploration Roadmap and serve as a concrete step forward in advancing the Global Exploration Strategy.

Laurini, Kathleen C.↗
NASA NTRS2017

A Probabilistic Asteroid Impact Risk Model

Asteroid threat assessment requires the quantification of both the impact likelihood and resulting consequence across the range of possible events. This paper presents a probabilistic asteroid impact risk (PAIR) assessment model developed for this purpose. The model incorporates published impact frequency rates with state-of-the-art consequence assessment tools, applied within a Monte Carlo framework that generates sets of impact scenarios from uncertain parameter distributions. Explicit treatment of atmospheric entry is included to produce energy deposition rates that account for the effects of thermal ablation and object fragmentation. These energy deposition rates are used to model the resulting ground damage, and affected populations are computed for the sampled impact locations. The results for each scenario are aggregated into a distribution of potential outcomes that reflect the range of uncertain impact parameters, population densities, and strike probabilities. As an illustration of the utility of the PAIR model, the results are used to address the question of what minimum size asteroid constitutes a threat to the population. To answer this question, complete distributions of results are combined with a hypothetical risk tolerance posture to provide the minimum size, given sets of initial assumptions. Model outputs demonstrate how such questions can be answered and provide a means for interpreting the effect that input assumptions and uncertainty can have on final risk-based decisions. Model results can be used to prioritize investments to gain knowledge in critical areas or, conversely, to identify areas where additional data has little effect on the metrics of interest.

Asteroid↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Using Degradation Modeling to Identify Fragile Operational Conditions in Human- and Component-driven Resilience Assessment

Studying failure events shows that many high-impact events result from the complex interactions between precipitating failure events and degraded operational conditions. Often, when a system is put in operations, unforeseen practical realities (e.g., maintenance and/or workforce availability) lead the system to be operated in configurations outside its envisioned nominal range. However, design-time failure models often assume that the failure events are initiated in an idealized, nominal state of system operation, resulting in an incomplete assessment of future risk. To solve this, this paper develops a framework to consider degraded operational performance in scenario-based resilience models which uses a corresponding model of performance degradation to determine the values of deteriorated model parameters in the resilience model. This framework is demonstrated on a remotely-piloted rover to determine the (individual and combined) effect of drive-train wear and operator fatigue on the resilience of the rover to drive-train faults. This demonstration showed the substantial impact that degradation has on resilience, highlighting the need to account for degradation in resilience models–specifically, unconsidered degradation can lead to overestimates of resilience (and thus underestimates of safety margin) and because resilience can degrade prior to visible unreliability, which can lead to an operational environment with a high propensity for high-impact unforeseen failure events.

resilience↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Using Degradation Modeling to Identify Fragile Operational Conditions in Human- and Component-driven Resilience Assessment

Studying failure events shows that many high-impact events result from the complex interactions between precipitating failure events and degraded operational conditions. Often, when a system is put in operations, unforeseen practical realities (e.g., maintenance and/or workforce availability) lead the system to be operated in configurations outside its envisioned nominal range. However, design-time failure models often assume that the failure events are initiated in an idealized, nominal state of system operation, resulting in an incomplete assessment of future risk. To solve this, this paper develops a framework to consider degraded operational performance in scenario-based resilience models which uses a corresponding model of performance degradation to determine the values of deteriorated model parameters in the resilience model. This framework is demonstrated on a remotely-piloted rover to determine the (individual and combined) effect of drive-train wear and operator fatigue on the resilience of the rover to drive-train faults. This demonstration showed the substantial impact that degradation has on resilience, highlighting the need to account for degradation in resilience models--specifically, unconsidered degradation can lead to overestimates of resilience (and thus underestimates of safety margin) and because resilience can degrade prior to visible unreliability, which can lead to an operational environment with a high propensity for high-impact unforeseen failure events.

Daniel Hulse↗
NASA NTRS2017

Representing Water Scarcity in Future Agricultural Assessments

Globally, irrigated agriculture is both essential for food production and the largest user of water. A major challenge for hydrologic and agricultural research communities is assessing the sustainability of irrigated croplands under climate variability and change. Simulations of irrigated croplands generally lack key interactions between water supply, water distribution, and agricultural water demand. In this article, we explore the critical interface between water resources and agriculture by motivating, developing, and illustrating the application of an integrated modeling framework to advance simulations of irrigated croplands. We motivate the framework by examining historical dynamics of irrigation water withdrawals in the United States and quantitatively reviewing previous modeling studies of irrigated croplands with a focus on representations of water supply, agricultural water demand, and impacts on crop yields when water demand exceeds water supply. We then describe the integrated modeling framework for simulating irrigated croplands, which links trends and scenarios with water supply, water allocation, and agricultural water demand. Finally, we provide examples of efforts that leverage the framework to improve simulations of irrigated croplands as well as identify opportunities for interventions that increase agricultural productivity, resiliency, and sustainability.

Irrigated Agriculture; Crop Model; Hydrologic Mode↗
NASA NTRS2013

Education and Public Outreach and Engagement at NASA's Analog Missions in 2012

Analog missions are integrated, multi-disciplinary activities that test key features of future human space exploration missions in an integrated fashion to gain a deeper understanding of system-level interactions and operations early in conceptual development. These tests often are conducted in remote and extreme environments that are representative in one or more ways to that of future spaceflight destinations. They may also be conducted at NASA facilities, using advanced modeling and human-in-the-loop scenarios. As NASA develops a capability driven framework to transport crew to a variety of space environments, it will use analog missions to gather requirements and develop the technologies necessary to ensure successful exploration beyond low Earth orbit. NASA s Advanced Exploration Systems (AES) Division conducts these high-fidelity integrated tests, including the coordination and execution of a robust education and public outreach (EPO) and engagement program for each mission. Conducting these mission scenarios in unique environments not only provides an opportunity to test the EPO concepts for the particular future-mission scenario, such as the best methods for conducting events with a communication time delay, but it also provides an avenue to deliver NASA s human space exploration key messages. These analogs are extremely exciting to students and the public, and they are performed in such a way that the public can feel like part of the mission. They also provide an opportunity for crew members to obtain training in education and public outreach activities similar to what they would perform in space. The analog EPO team is responsible for the coordination and execution of the events, the overall social media component for each mission, and public affairs events such as media visits and interviews. They also create new and exciting ways to engage the public, manage and create website content, coordinate video footage for missions, and coordinate and integrate each activity into the mission timeline. In 2012, the AES Analog Missions Project performed three distinct missions - NASA Extreme Environment Mission Operations (NEEMO), which simulated a mission to an asteroid using an undersea laboratory; In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) Field Test, which simulated a robotic mission to the moon searching and drilling for water; and Research and Technology Studies (RATS) integrated tests, which also simulated a mission to an asteroid. This paper will discuss the education and public engagement that occurred during these missions.

Watkins, Wendy L.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Implications of abundance measurements of the intracluster medium

The potential implications of future measurements of the heavy-element abundances in intracluster gas are considered in the framework of the cold-dark-matter scenario of structure formation in the early universe (Blumenthal et al., 1984). Particular attention is given to the correlation between the M(gas)/M(stellar) ratio and the gas temperature in groups and clusters of galaxies found by Jones et al. (1989) and its relationship to the efficiency of galaxy formation. Quantitative predictions for the correlation between Fe abundance and gas temperature are presented in graphs and discussed in detail.

Forman, W.↗
NASA NTRS1996

A Risk Assessment Model for Reduced Aircraft Separation: A Quantitative Method to Evaluate the Safety of Free Flight

As new technologies and procedures are introduced into the National Airspace System, whether they are intended to improve efficiency, capacity, or safety level, the quantification of potential changes in safety levels is of vital concern. Applications of technology can improve safety levels and allow the reduction of separation standards. An excellent example is the Precision Runway Monitor (PRM). By taking advantage of the surveillance and display advances of PRM, airports can run instrument parallel approaches to runways separated by 3400 feet with the same level of safety as parallel approaches to runways separated by 4300 feet using the standard technology. Despite a wealth of information from flight operations and testing programs, there is no readily quantifiable relationship between numerical safety levels and the separation standards that apply to aircraft on final approach. This paper presents a modeling approach to quantify the risk associated with reducing separation on final approach. Reducing aircraft separation, both laterally and longitudinally, has been the goal of several aviation R&D programs over the past several years. Many of these programs have focused on technological solutions to improve navigation accuracy, surveillance accuracy, aircraft situational awareness, controller situational awareness, and other technical and operational factors that are vital to maintaining flight safety. The risk assessment model relates different types of potential aircraft accidents and incidents and their contribution to overall accident risk. The framework links accident risks to a hierarchy of failsafe mechanisms characterized by procedures and interventions. The model will be used to assess the overall level of safety associated with reducing separation standards and the introduction of new technology and procedures, as envisaged under the Free Flight concept. The model framework can be applied to various aircraft scenarios, including parallel and in-trail approaches. This research was performed under contract to NASA and in cooperation with the FAA's Safety Division (ASY).

Cassell, Rick↗
NASA NTRS2014

Agent Based Modeling of Air Carrier Behavior for Evaluation of Technology Equipage and Adoption

As part of ongoing research, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and LMI developed a research framework to assist policymakers in identifying impacts on the U.S. air transportation system (ATS) of potential policies and technology related to the implementation of the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen). This framework, called the Air Transportation System Evolutionary Simulation (ATS-EVOS), integrates multiple models into a single process flow to best simulate responses by U.S. commercial airlines and other ATS stakeholders to NextGen-related policies, and in turn, how those responses impact the ATS. Development of this framework required NASA and LMI to create an agent-based model of airline and passenger behavior. This Airline Evolutionary Simulation (AIRLINE-EVOS) models airline decisions about tactical airfare and schedule adjustments, and strategic decisions related to fleet assignments, market prices, and equipage. AIRLINE-EVOS models its own heterogeneous population of passenger agents that interact with airlines; this interaction allows the model to simulate the cycle of action-reaction as airlines compete with each other and engage passengers. We validated a baseline configuration of AIRLINE-EVOS against Airline Origin and Destination Survey (DB1B) data and subject matter expert opinion, and we verified the ATS-EVOS framework and agent behavior logic through scenario-based experiments. These experiments demonstrated AIRLINE-EVOS's capabilities in responding to an input price shock in fuel prices, and to equipage challenges in a series of analyses based on potential incentive policies for best equipped best served, optimal-wind routing, and traffic management initiative exemption concepts..

Horio, Brant M.↗