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Presentation of Fermilan-specific muon collider scenarios, including site-filler RCS and possible re-use of the Tevatron tunnel. A brief discussion of the relevant technological considerations and the scenario planning that is site-agnostic. Recent work on Fermilab proton driver is presented.
This study examined state-of-the-art mission oriented simulation and its use in human factors research. Guidelines were developed for doing full-mission human factors research on crew member behavior during simulated air transport operations. The existing literature was reviewed. However, interviews with experienced investigators provided the most useful information. The fundamental scientific and practical issues of behavioral research in a simulation environment are discussed. Guidelines are presented for planning, scenario development, and the execution of behavioral research using full-mission simulation in the context of air transport flight operations . Research is recommended to enhance the validity and productivity of full-mission research by: (1) validating the need for high-fidelity simulation of all major elements in the operational environment, (2) improving methods for conducting full-mission research, and (3) examining part-task research on specific problems through the use of vehicles which contain higher levels of abstraction (and lower fidelity) of the operational environment.
One of the most intriguing and complex areas of current computer graphics research is animating human figures to behave in a realistic manner. Believable, accurate human models are desirable for many everyday uses including industrial and architectural design, medical applications, and human factors evaluations. For zero-gravity (0-g) spacecraft design and mission planning scenarios, they are particularly valuable since 0-g conditions are difficult to simulate in a one-gravity Earth environment. At NASA/JSC, an in-house human modeling package called PLAID is currently being used to produce animations for human factors evaluation of Space Station Freedom design issues. Presented here is an introductory background discussion of problems encountered in existing techniques for animating human models and how an instrumented manikin can help improve the realism of these models.
The NASA/MSFC Mission Analysis Program has recently been utilized in various National Aero-Space Plane (NASP) mission and operational planning scenarios. This paper focuses on presenting various atmospheric constraint statistics based on assumed NASP mission phases using established natural environment design, parametric, threshold values. Probabilities of no-go are calculated using atmospheric parameters such as temperature, humidity, density altitude, peak/steady-state winds, cloud cover/ceiling, thunderstorms, and precipitation. The program although developed to evaluate test or operational missions after flight constraints have been established, can provide valuable information in the design phase of the NASP X-30 program. Inputting the design values as flight constraints the Mission Analysis Program returns the probability of no-go, or launch delay, by hour by month. This output tells the X-30 program manager whether the design values are stringent enough to meet his required test flight schedules.
Mission Activities Planning is a complex task to be performed by mission control centers. AI technology can offer attractive solutions to the planning problem. This paper presents the use of a new AI-based Mission Planning System for crew activity planning. Based on a HERMES servicing mission to the COLUMBUS Man Tended Free Flyer (MTFF) with complex time and resource constraints, approximately 2000 activities with 50 different resources have been generated, processed, and planned with parametric variation of operationally sensitive parameters. The architecture, as well as the performance of the mission planning system, is discussed. An outlook to future planning scenarios, the requirements, and how a system like MARS can fulfill those requirements is given.
A top-down risk assessment in the early phases of space exploration architecture development can provide understanding and intuition of the potential risks associated with new designs and technologies. In this approach, risk analysts draw from their past experience and the heritage of similar existing systems as a source for reliability data. This top-down approach captures the complex interactions of the risk driving parts of the integrated system without requiring detailed knowledge of the parts themselves, which is often unavailable in the early design stages. Traditional probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) technologies, however, suffer several drawbacks that limit their timely application to complex technology development programs. The most restrictive of these is a dependence on static planning scenarios, expressed through fault and event trees. Fault trees incorporating comprehensive mission scenarios are routinely constructed for complex space systems, and several commercial software products are available for evaluating fault statistics. These static representations cannot capture the dynamic behavior of system failures without substantial modification of the initial tree. Consequently, the development of dynamic models using fault tree analysis has been an active area of research in recent years. This paper discusses the implementation and demonstration of dynamic, modular scenario modeling for integration of subsystem fault evaluation modules using the Space Architecture Failure Evaluation (SAFE) tool. SAFE is a C++ code that was originally developed to support NASA s Space Launch Initiative. It provides a flexible framework for system architecture definition and trade studies. SAFE supports extensible modeling of dynamic, time-dependent risk drivers of the system and functions at the level of fidelity for which design and failure data exists. The approach is scalable, allowing inclusion of additional information as detailed data becomes available. The tool performs a Monte Carlo analysis to provide statistical estimates. Example results of an architecture system reliability study are summarized for an exploration system concept using heritage data from liquid-fueled expendable Saturn V/Apollo launch vehicles.
This viewgraph presentation addresses the use of autonomy for remote mobile robotic exploration. The contents include; 1) Why Use Autonomy?; 2) What Are Some Options? JPL (Reasoning); 3) More Options.. . (Modeling); 4) The CLEaR Control System (Closed Loop Execution and Recovery); 5) Method of Response; 6) Overall Goal; 7) CLEaR in Action; 8) Initial Scenario; 9) Initial Scenario - Planned; 10) Unforeseen Events; and 11) Ongoing Research.
The Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) Traffic Management (UTM) research project has been developing and testing concept ideas for enabling small UAS (sUAS) operations in low altitude airspace (ground to 400 feet). To do this, a series of flight test demonstrations were organized over five years at seven test sites. Technology Capability Level-4 (TCL4), the most complex flight tests, were conducted in Texas, USA, during August 2019. This testing resulted in over 400 data collection flights using eight live rotorcraft, with nine flight crews flying pre-planned scenarios in the urban downtown and waterfront areas of Corpus Christi, Texas. Test scenarios were designed to include a variety of elements, including live and simulated vehicles, and personnel in many different roles, including flight crews and mission personnel. One group of people who did not have a role in the flight tests but will be affected by UAS operations as they become more ubiquitous, are the general public. What do the public think about sUAS operations in urban areas? In order to obtain a reference point that noted the public's view of the operations in the TCL4 demonstration, a short survey was developed and offered to members of the public who wished to comment on the sUAS activities they saw in their city during two weeks in August, 2019.Forty five people completed the online public opinion survey. Participants volunteered to take it, creating a self-selected sample. The survey included eleven questions that asked participants about their level of comfort and concerns with UAS activity; their knowledge of UAS operations; and, whether a traffic management system like UTM would increase their confidence in urban UAS activity. The general public in Corpus Christi showed a good level of knowledge of sUAS regulations, with almost half of their responses to the knowledge portion of the survey being correct. They expressed a moderate level of concern (x = 4.7 out of 7) at urban sUAS activity and, of those who cited a concern, the majority reported this was about privacy (54%), which are all responses in line with those reported in earlier research on public opinion. Views on UTM were mixed, with respondents indicating they thought the introduction of UTM will improve safety somewhat (5.2 out of 7) but it will also increase their concern a little (4.6 out of 7). This would indicate there needs to be more information and educational material about the UTM concept made available to the public with the aim to reduce public concerns about the system.
The Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) Traffic Management (UTM) research project has been developing and testing concept ideas for enabling small UAS (sUAS) operations in low altitude airspace (ground to 400 feet). To do this, a series of flight test demonstrations were organized over five years at seven test sites. Technology Capability Level-4 (TCL4), the most complex flight tests, were conducted in Texas, USA, during August 2019. This testing resulted in over 400 data collection flights using eight live rotorcraft, with nine flight crews flying pre-planned scenarios in the urban downtown and waterfront areas of Corpus Christi, Texas. Test scenarios were designed to include a variety of elements, including live and simulated vehicles, and personnel in many different roles, including flight crews and mission personnel. One group of people who did not have a role in the flight tests but will be affected by UAS operations as they become more ubiquitous, are the general public. What do the public think about sUAS operations in urban areas? In order to obtain a reference point that noted the public’s view of the operations in the TCL4 demonstration, a short survey was developed and offered to members of the public who wished to comment on the sUAS activities they saw in their city during two weeks in August, 2019. Forty five people completed the online public opinion survey. Participants volunteered to take it, creating a self-selected sample. The survey included eleven questions that asked participants about their level of comfort and concerns with UAS activity; their knowledge of UAS operations; and, whether a traffic management system like UTM would increase their confidence in urban UAS activity. The general public in Corpus Christi showed a good level of knowledge of sUAS regulations, with almost half of their responses to the knowledge portion of the survey being correct. They expressed a moderate level of concern (x = 4.7 out of 7) at urban sUAS activity and, of those who cited a concern, the majority reported this was about privacy (54%), which are all responses in line with those reported in earlier research on public opinion. Views on UTM were mixed, with respondents indicating they thought the introduction of UTM will improve safety somewhat (5.2 out of 7) but it will also increase their concern a little (4.6 out of 7). This would indicate there needs to be more information and educational material about the UTM concept made available to the public with the aim to reduce public concerns about the system.
Over the past several years, Urban Air Mobility (UAM) has galvanized enthusiasm from investors and researchers, marrying expertise in aircraft design, transportation, logistics, artificial intelligence, battery chemistry, and broader policymaking. However, two significant questions remain unexplored: (1) What is the value of UAM in a region’s transportation network? and (2) How can UAM be effectively deployed to realize and maximize this value to all stakeholders, including riders and local economies? To adequately understand the value proposition of UAM for metropolitan areas, the authors develop a holistic multi-modal toolchain, SimUAM, to model and simulate UAM and its impacts on travel behavior. This toolchain has several components: (1) Microsimulation Analysis for Network Traffic Assignment (MANTA): A fast, high-fidelity regional-scale traffic microsimulator, (2) VertiSim: Agranular, discrete-event vertiport and pedestrian simulator, (3) Flexible Engine for Fast-time Evaluation of Flight Environments (Fe3): A high-fidelity, trajectory-based aerial microsimulation. SimUAM, rooted in granular, GPU-based microsimulation, models millions of trips and their movements in the street network and in the air, producing interpretable and actionable performance metrics for UAM designs and deployments. Once the ground-air interface is modeled, the authors find that the market for UAM decreases across all network designs relative to models with static assumptions about transfer times. However, significant improvements can be made to balance the demand and optimize the networks for transfer time, likely increasing the number of benefited trips. The modularity, extensibility, and speed of the platform will allow for rapid scenario planning and sensitivity analysis, effectively acting as a detailed performance assessment tool.
Over the past several years, Urban Air Mobility (UAM) has galvanized enthusiasm from investors and researchers, marrying expertise in aircraft design, transportation, logistics, artificial intelligence, battery chemistry, and broader policymaking. However, two significant questions remain unexplored: (1) What is the value of UAM in a region’s transportation network?, and (2) How can UAM be effectively deployed to realize and maximize this value to all stakeholders, including riders and local economies? To adequately understand the value proposition of UAM for metropolitan areas, we develop a holistic multi-modal toolchain, SimUAM, to model and simulate UAM and its impacts on travel behavior. This toolchain has several components: (1) MANTA: A fast, high-fidelity regional-scale traffic microsimulator, (2) VertiSim: A granular, discrete-event vertiport and pedestrian, (3) 3: A high-fidelity, trajectory-based aerial microsimulation. SimUAM, rooted in granular, GPU-based microsimulation, models millions of trips and their exact movements in the street network and in the air, producing interpretable and actionable performance metrics for UAM designs and deployments. The modularity, extensibility, and speed of the platform will allow for rapid scenario planning and sensitivity analysis, effectively acting as a detailed performance assessment tool. As a result, stakeholders in UAM can understand the impacts of critical infrastructure, and subsequently define policies, requirements, and investments needed to support UAM as a viable transportation mode.
Systems and methods are described herein for real-time data processing and for emergency planning. Scenario test data may be collected in real-time based on monitoring local or regional data to ascertain any anomaly phenomenon that may indicate an imminent danger or of concern. A computer-implemented method may include filtering a plurality of different test scenarios to identify a sub-set of test scenarios from the plurality of different test scenarios that may have similar behavior characteristics. A sub-set of test scenarios is provided to a trained neural network to identify one or more sub-set of test scenarios. The one or more identified sub-set of test scenarios may correspond to one or more anomaly test scenarios from the sub-set of test scenarios that is most likely to lead to an undesirable outcome. The neural network may be one of: a conventional neural network and a modular neural network.
Systems and methods are described herein for real-time data processing and for emergency planning. Scenario test data may be collected in real-time based on monitoring local or regional data to ascertain any anomaly phenomenon that may indicate an imminent danger or of concern. A computer-implemented method may include filtering a plurality of different test scenarios to identify a sub-set of test scenarios from the plurality of different test scenarios that may have similar behavior characteristics. A sub-set of test scenarios is provided to a trained neural network to identify one or more sub-set of test scenarios. The one or more identified sub-set of test scenarios may correspond to one or more anomaly test scenarios from the sub-set of test scenarios that is most likely to lead to an undesirable outcome. The neural network may be one of: a conventional neural network and a modular neural network.
Storm-DEPART (Damage Estimate Prediction and Restoration Tool): Each year hurricanes and tropical storms in the United States damage critical infrastructure assets, disrupt the services they provide, and cause millions to billions of dollars in economic impacts due to extended recovery times. The Storm-DEPART tool and analytical output enable more impactful data-driven decision-making capabilities and strengthen national-level disaster preparedness, response, and recovery. Storm-DEPART, built through multi-month collaboration between Entergy and INL, combines Entergy’s critical infrastructure inventory data with weather forecasts to predict damages to Electric utility’s assets due to natural disasters and the estimated recovery support needed, including time, materials, and resource allocation. In the event of an approaching hurricane, this innovative solution can assess potential damage to power generation capacity, transmission grids, distribution networks, and communications assets from wind bands, storm surge, and flooding. With more effective predictions, Entergy can more efficiently allocate resources to mitigate impacts and optimize recovery for customers. Storm-DEPART also allows Electric utilities the ability to apply a planning scenario and model expected damage to better inform infrastructure restoration needs leading to enhance system resiliency. The technology is fully transferrable to other electric utilities with the same damage estimating challenges. The INL team is working on the evolution of Storm-DEPART to include ice event damage prediction framework.
Storm-DEPART (Damage Estimate Prediction and Restoration Tool): Each year hurricanes and tropical storms in the United States damage critical infrastructure assets, disrupt the services they provide, and cause millions to billions of dollars in economic impacts due to extended recovery times. The Storm-DEPART tool and analytical output enable more impactful data-driven decision-making capabilities and strengthen national-level disaster preparedness, response, and recovery. Storm-DEPART, built through multi-month collaboration between Entergy and INL, combines Entergy’s critical infrastructure inventory data with weather forecasts to predict damages to Electric utility’s assets due to natural disasters and the estimated recovery support needed, including time, materials, and resource allocation. In the event of an approaching hurricane, this innovative solution can assess potential damage to power generation capacity, transmission grids, distribution networks, and communications assets from wind bands, storm surge, and flooding. With more effective predictions, Entergy can more efficiently allocate resources to mitigate impacts and optimize recovery for customers. Storm-DEPART also allows Electric utilities the ability to apply a planning scenario and model expected damage to better inform infrastructure restoration needs leading to enhance system resiliency. The technology is fully transferrable to other electric utilities with the same damage estimating challenges. The INL team is working on the evolution of Storm-DEPART to include ice event damage prediction framework.
The importance of hydropower increases as the power grid evolves with the higher variable renewable contribution. As conventional thermal power plants are retired, the importance of hydropower contribution increases to balance the variability of solar and wind generation. However, reservoir water resources are constrained by multiple constraints, and variability of water inflow to the reservoirs creates limitations to dam water releases for power grid needs. Coordinating multiple tools, including water resources, ecological, and technical and economic power grid modeling, informs dam water releases. The case study, the Columbia River Basin multipurpose reservoir project, is operated for hydropower production and many other purposes considering the aquatic habitat of the river basin. Specifically, the river basin fish population is a vital element for the tribal community of the river basin. We integrated a production cost model, a water resource model, and decades of tribal knowledge to analyze the fish-friendly way of operating Columbia hydropower scheduling and grid impacts. We measure power grid impacts for various water resources planning scenarios in terms of total system operating cost, system reliability indicators, changes in wind and solar generation and curtailments, local marginal prices, and revenue for hydropower producers. The study results inform reservoir operating rules decisions from hydropower power producers, system operators, other water users, tribes, environmentalists, and other stakeholders.
In fiscal year (FY) 2024, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) took a major leap forward with the completed full buildout of Kestrel, the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy's newest high-performance computing (HPC) system. Kestrel is already supporting science across the portfolio, bringing roughly 44 petaflops of computing power, which is more than five times the capacity of our previous supercomputer, Eagle. By delivering greater GPU capacity, Kestrel enables faster progress in artificial intelligence (AI) and opens new avenues in energy research - from defining long-term planning scenarios to accommodate a growing power system to material discovery to improving energy efficiency in photovoltaics (PV). Across the portfolio, research is being accelerated by Kestrel's impressive power. During FY24, 427 projects and more than 700 researchers used NREL's HPC, supporting the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy across 13 funding areas. Through these collaborations, researchers produced more than 450 technical outputs, including 195 articles in peer-reviewed publications, pushing the boundaries of science and engineering. This year's report features new sections spotlighting the expanding roles of Artificial Intelligence and Accelerated Computing. We also introduce an early career section to celebrate the accomplishments of our up-and-coming researchers, whose pioneering work is shaping the future of energy. We hope you enjoy the new insights and discoveries highlighted in these pages.
We propose a generalized framework which performs an optimal partitioning of a limited budget into various organizational sectors in order to improve the cybersecurity of a smart device or component in the Cyber Physical Energy System (CPS). The framework identifies the adversarial threats and possible attack sequences which can be performed to exploit cyber vulnerabilities of the component. Thereafter, we formulate an Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP) optimization problem which aims to evaluate the optimal budget partitions in order to minimize the number of highly likely attack sequences. Though we provide results for using the framework in CPES, the proposed methodology can be extended for multiple domains with a set of known adversarial and mitigation actions.