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At least 55 records · Page 3

CO2ROpt (Feedstock Allocation Optimization Model) [SWR-22-13]

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions remains a critical challenge for the transportation and chemical sectors. The electrochemical reduction of carbon dioxide is a potential pathway for production of fuels and chemicals that uses atmospheric carbon dioxide as a feedstock. Here we present an analysis of the potential for carbon dioxide captured from point sources and via direct air capture to be utilized in electrochemical reduction under different market scenarios. Using a numerical optimization framework and national data sets, scenarios for nationwide production of ethylene, formate, and carbon monoxide are evaluated at scales comparable to current production of these molecules in the United States. We show that developing a network for production of these products at scale requires capture and utilization of significant portions of the carbon dioxide that is currently emitted from large stationary point sources. Because carbon dioxide point sources are spatially and compositionally variable, their use for carbon dioxide reduction depends on electricity prices, capture cost, and location. If the power sector in the United States is decarbonized, carbon dioxide supply decreases significantly, increasing the importance of utilizing other carbon dioxide streams, and increasing the likelihood that direct air capture plays a role in supplying carbon dioxide feedstocks. These findings provide a first insight into the feedstock and energy constraints for carbon dioxide reduction.

Badgett, Alex↗

Mitigating life cycle GHG emissions of roads to be built through 2030: Case study of a Chinese province

We report the expansion of road networks in emerging economies such as China causes significant greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This development is conflicting with China's commitment to achieve carbon neutrality. Thus, there is a need to better understand life cycle emissions of road infrastructure and opportunities to mitigate these emissions. Existing impact studies of roads in developing countries do not address recycled materials, improved pavement maintenance, or pavement-vehicle interaction and electric vehicle (EV) adoption. Combining firsthand information from Chinese road construction engineers with publicly available data, this paper estimates a comprehensive account of GHG emissions of the road pavement network to be constructed in the next ten years in the Shandong province in Northern China. Further, we estimate the potential of GHG emission reductions achievable under three scenario sets: maintenance optimization, alternative pavement material replacement, and EV adoption. Results show that the life cycle GHG emissions of highways and Class 1–4 roads to be constructed in the next 10 years amount to 147 Mt CO2-eq. Considering the use phase in our model reveals that it is the dominant stage in terms of emissions, largely due to pavement-vehicle interaction. Vehicle electrification can only moderately mitigate these emissions. Other stages, such as materials production and road maintenance and rehabilitation, contribute substantially to GHG emissions as well, highlighting the importance of optimizing the management of these stages. Surprisingly, longer, not shorter maintenance intervals, yield significant emission reductions. Another counter-intuitive finding is that thicker and more material-intensive pavement surfaces cause lower emissions overall. Taken together, optimal maintenance and rehabilitation schedules, alternative material use, and vehicle electrification provide GHG reduction potentials of 11%, 4%–16% and 2%–6%, respectively.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Quantification of Mono- and Multivalent Counterion-Mediated Bridging in Polyelectrolyte Brushes

Multivalent counterion-induced bridging interactions have been identified as the key mechanism of drastic collapse of the height of polyelectrolyte (PE) brushes. In this article, we employ all-atom molecular dynamics (MD) simulations to quantify the bridging interactions in PE brushes for counterions of different sizes and valences. We identify that unlike the current notion, bridging interactions are not the sole function of the counterion valence. Rather the bridging interactions depend on the fraction of counterions (of a given type) that get physically condensed on the PE backbone as well as the size of the counterion solvation shell. These mechanisms ensure that certain monovalent counterions demonstrate much stronger bridging interactions than that witnessed for certain divalent and trivalent counterions, while certain counterions of identical valences show drastically different bridging. Here, we argue that these counterion-specific bridging interactions eventually enable not only the significant reduction of the PE brush height in presence of certain multivalent screening counterions, but may also give rise to scenarios where the brush height reduction for certain monovalent counterions is larger than certain divalent and trivalent counterions. This latter observation contradicts the experimental findings where the multivalent counterions invariably led to a larger decrease in the height of the PE brushes: we argue that this discrepancy stems from the fact that in our simulations we only consider densely grafted and short (and hence less flexible) PE brushes that hinder the formation of different laterally inhomogeneous structures (like pinned micelles and cylindrical bundles) that would have led to a larger brush height reduction (in experiments, which invariably consider longer and less densely grafted brushes, the formation of such inhomogeneous structures are primarily responsible for larger brush height reduction in presence of multivalent counterions). Finally, we also probe the dynamic properties of the counterions (i.e., their time-dependent displacements) and their bridging interactions (i.e., lifetime of bridging interactions).

42 ENGINEERING↗

Manipulating the oxygen reduction reaction pathway on Pt-coordinated motifs

Electrochemical oxygen reduction could proceed via either 4e - -pathway toward maximum chemical-to-electric energy conversion or 2e - -pathway toward onsite H 2 O 2 production. Bulk Pt catalysts are known as the best monometallic materials catalyzing O 2 -to-H 2 O conversion, however, controversies on the reduction product selectivity are noted for atomic dispersed Pt catalysts. Here, we prepare a series of carbon supported Pt single atom catalyst with varied neighboring dopants and Pt site densities to investigate the local coordination environment effect on branching oxygen reduction pathway. Manipulation of 2e - or 4e - reduction pathways is demonstrated through modification of the Pt coordination environment from Pt-C to Pt-N-C and Pt-S-C, giving rise to a controlled H 2 O 2 selectivity from 23.3% to 81.4% and a turnover frequency ratio of H 2 O 2 /H 2 O from 0.30 to 2.67 at 0.4 V versus reversible hydrogen electrode. Energetic analysis suggests both 2e - and 4e - pathways share a common intermediate of *OOH, Pt-C motif favors its dissociative reduction while Pt-S and Pt-N motifs prefer its direct protonation into H 2 O 2 . By taking the Pt-N-C catalyst as a stereotype, we further demonstrate that the maximum H 2 O 2 selectivity can be manipulated from 70 to 20% with increasing Pt site density, providing hints for regulating the stepwise oxygen reduction in different application scenarios.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Smart building HVAC control challenge: experience and solutions from the ADRENALIN project

A smart building HVAC control competition crowdsourced and compared algorithms on fair and equal ground using the standardized BOPTEST framework. The competition attracted 138 participants, but only 9% submitted valid solutions for the final stage, highlighting the complexity of advanced HVAC control design. The winning solutions showed significant potential to reduce energy use and cost by shifting demand, without compromising occupant comfort. Across scenarios, thermal energy cost reductions of 36–76% relative to a baseline, were achieved. In peak heat periods, the cost reduction leveraged limited energy use reduction (0–15%), but more significant energy price reduction (34–62%). This shows smart controls' ability to avoid as much as possible consumption during the morning peak hours, when spot prices are tendentially the highest. Hosting the competition has highlighted challenges in creating competitions that both are fair and promotes solutions that are transferable to real life implementation.

BOPTEST↗

The Role of Hydropower Flexibility in Integrating Renewables in a Low-Carbon Grid

In this study, we looked at the role of hydropower flexibility in variable renewable energy (VRE) integration. Our focus was on facilities that have at least ten hours of storage, i.e., plants that are "dispatchable" and have capacity values similar to that of fossil-fired generation. For our modeling framework, we used NREL's Mid-Case/95% Carbon Reduction by 2035 standard scenario as our foundation. This zonal model is representative of the buildout of a near-zero carbon policy grid in an otherwise "business-as-usual" policy and economic environment. We chose this scenario because it aligns well with the Administration's net-zero carbon grid by 2035 goal.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Evaluating Utility Costs Savings and Resilience: A Case Study in Port Arthur, Texas

This study evaluates the techno-economic feasibility of integrating solar photovoltaics (PV), battery energy storage systems (BESS), and generators to enhance both cost savings and resilience in critical community facilities in Port Arthur, Texas. Using NREL's REopt model, we analyze four facilities: the Golden Triangle Empowerment Center (GTEC), Lamar State College (LSC), Port Arthur Independent School District (PAISD), and Port Arthur Transit (PAT). A key aspect of the analysis is the incorporation of the Value of Lost Load (VoLL) and microgrid upgrade costs to assess the hidden value of resilience during grid outages. While standalone PV scenarios show moderate cost reductions and a 10-15% decrease in CO2 emissions, the inclusion of resilience measures with BESS and generators significantly increases system costs. However, the hidden value of resilience - quantified through avoided outage costs - leads to a substantial improvement in financial outcomes, resulting in positive Net Present Value (NPV) at many sites. The study demonstrates that resilient solar and storage systems offer both economic and resilience benefits, particularly for underserved communities, by balancing energy savings and enhanced operational continuity during outages.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Evaluation of Physical Security Risk for Potential Implementation of FLEX using Dynamic Simulation Methods

The requirements for United States nuclear power plants to maintain a large onsite physical security force contribute to their large operational costs. The cost of maintaining the current physical security posture is approximately 10% of the overall operation and maintenance budget for commercial nuclear power plants. The goal of the Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program Physical Security Pathway is to develop tools, methods, and technologies and provide the technical basis for an optimized physical security posture. This pathway will analyze and minimize the conservatisms built into current security postures in order to reduce security costs while still ensuring adequate security and operational safety. The research performed at Idaho National Laboratory within this pathway has successfully developed a dynamic force-on-force (FOF) modeling framework using various computer simulation tools and integrated them with the dynamic assessment Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Linked Diagrams (EMRALD) tool. This document provides an overview of lessons learned in applying a dynamic computational framework that links results from a commercially available FOF simulation tool, a commercially available thermal-hydraulic tool, and EMRALD to an operating commercial nuclear power plant. This process of including plant procedures and multiple analysis results is being called Modeling and Analysis for Safety Security using Dynamic EMRALD Framework. Previous reports described how a user could integrate their plant-specific FOF models with the dynamic simulation tool EMRALD, model operator actions, integrate with probabilistic risk assessment tools, such as Computer Aided Fault Tree Analysis System or Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations, and with thermal-hydraulic tools, such as RELAP-5. Previous reports applied various combinations of available simulations codes with EMRALD using generic plant models to demonstrate how to perform the analysis. This report documents the results of applying the dynamic computational framework to an actual nuclear facility using their security scenarios and timelines. The purpose of this study was to verify that results achieved using generic models are similar to actual plant results and to refine our guidance of the use of the framework. Such an assessment enables further analysis, such as what-if scenarios and staff-reduction evaluation, thereby optimizing physical security at plants. NOTE: The work performed in this report is based on a generic EMRALD model with actual plant data used for the analysis. However, only the generic model and general results of the analysis are in the report. No plant’s sensitive information is discussed in this report. The discussion shows examples of insights that can be obtained from the MASS-DEF methodology.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Plant-specific Model and Data Analysis using Dynamic Security Modeling and Simulation

The requirements for U.S. nuclear power plants to maintain a large on-site physical security force contribute to their high operational costs. The cost of maintaining the current physical security posture is approximately 10% of the overall operation and maintenance budget for commercial nuclear power plants. The goal of the Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program’s physical security pathway is to develop tools, methods, and technologies and provide the technical basis for an optimized physical security posture. The conservatisms built into current security postures may be analyzed and minimized in order to reduce security costs while still ensuring adequate security and operational safety. The research performed at Idaho National Laboratory within LWRS program’s physical security pathway has successfully developed a dynamic force-on-force modeling framework using various computer simulation tools and integrating them with the dynamic assessment Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Linked Diagrams (EMRALD) tool. This document provides an update on the progress in applying a dynamic computational framework that links results from a commercially available force-on-force simulation tool, a commercially available thermal-hydraulic tool, and EMRALD to an operating commercial nuclear power plant. This report is only a summary of the progress and does not contain specific modeling results as those contain sensitive security information. This process of including plant procedures and multiple analysis results is being called Modeling and Analysis for Safety Security using Dynamic EMRALD Framework or MASS-DEF. Previous reports described how a user could integrate their plant-specific force-on-force models with the dynamic simulation tool EMRALD, model operator actions, integrate with probabilistic risk assessment tools, such as CAFTA (Computer Aided Fault Tree Analysis System) or SAPHIRE (Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations), and with thermal-hydraulic tools, such as RELAP-5. Previous reports applied various combinations of available simulations codes with EMRALD using generic plant models to demonstrate how to perform the analysis. This report documents the results of applying the dynamic computational framework to an actual nuclear facility using their security scenarios and timelines. This report does not contain any plant's sensitive information and/or Safeguards Information. The purpose of this study was to verify that results achieved using generic models are similar to actual plant results and to refine our guidance on the use of the framework. This assessment enables further analysis, such as what-if scenarios and staff-reduction evaluation, thereby optimizing physical security at plants.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

An Evaluation of The Dynamic Physical Security Risk Assessment Methodology for Fleet-Wide Applications

The requirements for U.S. nuclear power plants to maintain a large onsite physical security force contribute to their high operational costs. The cost of maintaining the current physical security posture is approximately 10% of the overall operation and maintenance budget for commercial nuclear power plants. The goal of the Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program’s physical security pathway is to develop tools, methods, and technologies and provide the technical basis for an optimized physical security posture. The conservatisms built into current security postures may be analyzed and minimized to reduce security costs while still ensuring adequate security and operational safety. The research performed at Idaho National Laboratory within LWRS program’s physical security pathway has successfully developed a dynamic force-on-force modeling framework using various computer simulation tools and integrating them with the dynamic assessment Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Linked Diagrams (EMRALD) tool. This integrated process for physical security analysis is named Modeling and Analysis for Safety Security using Dynamic EMRALD Framework (MASS-DEF). This document provides an update on the progress in applying the MASS-DEF process to an operating commercial nuclear power plant as well as additional industry feedback regarding use of the tool for other physical security risk-informed topics. This report is only a summary of the progress and does not contain specific modeling results as those contain sensitive security information. Previous reports described how a user could integrate their plant-specific force-on-force models with the dynamic simulation tool EMRALD, model operator actions, and integrate with probabilistic risk assessment tools, such as CAFTA (Computer Aided Fault Tree Analysis System) or SAPHIRE (Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations), and with thermal-hydraulic tools, such as RELAP-5 or MAAP. Previous reports applied various combinations of available simulations codes with EMRALD using generic plant models to demonstrate how to perform the analysis. This report is an update the progress of applying the dynamic computational framework to an actual nuclear facility using their security scenarios and timelines. This report also provides an update to the procedural guidance for the MASS-DEF process and an overview of the generic models available for use by utilities. This report does not contain any plant’s sensitive information and/or safeguards information. This study’s purpose was to verify that the results achieved using generic models are similar to actual plant results and refine our guidance on the use of the framework. This assessment enables further analysis, such as what-if scenarios and staff-reduction evaluation, thereby optimizing physical security at plants.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

High-ambition climate action in all sectors can achieve a 65% greenhouse gas emissions reduction in the United States by 2035

Under the next cycle of target setting under the Paris Agreement, countries will be updating and submitting new nationally determined contributions (NDCs) over the coming year. To this end, there is a growing need for the United States to assess potential pathways toward a new, maximally ambitious 2035 NDC. In this study, we use an integrated assessment model with state-level detail to model existing policies from both federal and non-federal actors, including the Inflation Reduction Act, Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, and key state policies, across all sectors and gases. Additionally, we develop a high-ambition scenario, which includes new and enhanced policies from these actors. We find that existing policies can reduce net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 44% (with a range of 37% to 52%) by 2035, relative to 2005 levels. The high-ambition scenario can deliver net GHG reductions up to 65% (with a range of 59% to 71%) by 2035 under accelerated implementation of federal regulations and investments, as well as state policies such as renewable portfolio standards, EV sales targets, and zero-emission appliance standards. This level of reductions would provide a basis for continued progress toward the country’s 2050 net-zero emissions goal.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Grid Cost and Total Emissions Reductions Through Mass Deployment of Geothermal Heat Pumps for Building Heating and Cooling Electrification in the United States

This report presents the results of a study on the potential grid impacts of national-scale mass deployment of geothermal heat pumps (GHPs) coupled with weatherization in single-family homes (SFHs) from 2022 to 2050. GHPs are a technology readiness level 10, commercially available technology across the United States. This study is an impact analysis only; installed costs and available land areas for installing GHPs are not accounted for in determining their estimated deployment. The three scenarios studied were (1) continuing to operate the grid as it is today (the Base scenario), (2) a scenario to reach 95% grid emissions reductions by 2035 and 100% clean electricity by 2050 (the Grid Decarbonization scenario), and (3) a scenario in which the Grid Decarbonization scenario is expanded to include the electrification of wide portions of the economy, including building heating (the Electrification Futures Study or EFS scenario). The analysis team modeled each of these three scenarios with and without GHP deployment to a large percentage of US building floor space. In all cases, deployment of approximately 5 million GHPs per year demonstrated system cost savings on the grid, consumer fuel cost savings through eliminated fuel combustion for space heating, and CO 2 emission reductions from avoided on-site fuel combustion—and, in the case of the Base scenario, CO 2 emissions reductions from the electric power sector. GHPs have traditionally been viewed as a building energy technology. The most notable result of this study, however, is the demonstration that GHPs coupled with weatherization in SFHs are primarily a grid cost reduction tool and technology that, when deployed at a national scale, also substantially reduces CO 2 emissions, even in the absence of any other decarbonization policy.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Wake Effects in Lower Carbon Future Scenarios

In August 2022, the U.S. Congress passed the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which intended to accelerate U.S. decarbonization, clean energy manufacturing, and deployment of new power and end-use technologies. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory has examined possible scenarios for growth by 2050 resulting from the IRA and other emissions reduction drivers and defined several possible scenarios for large-scale wind deployment. These scenarios incorporate large clusters of turbines operating as wind farms grouped around existing or likely transmission lines which will result in wind farm wakes. Using a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model, we assess these wake effects in a domain in the U. S. Southern Great Plains for a representative year with four scenarios in order to validate the simulations, estimate the internal wake impact, and quantify the cluster wake effect. Herein, we present a validation of the ”no wind farm” scenario and quantify the internal waking effect for the ”ONE” wind farm scenario. Future work will use the “MID” scenario (more than 8000 turbines) and the “HI” scenario (more than 16,000 turbines) to quantify the effect of cluster wakes or inter-farm wakes on power production.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Grid Interconnection and Renewables Deployment Related Air Quality and Human Health Benefits in Southeast Asia

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has increasingly focused on multilateral electricity trade, improved grid resiliency and modernization. These opportunities in the power sector have been studied through the ASEAN Interconnection Masterplan Studies, the most recent of which is the ASEAN Interconnection Masterplan Study III (AIMS III). AIMS III assessed four different scenarios of power system in the ASEAN countries that include a base scenario and three additional scenarios (called optimum RE, ASEAN RE, and High RE) considering different levels of deployment of renewable energy (RE) and cross-border generation and trade of electricity for three years (2025, 2030, 2040). In this work, we quantify the potential air quality and public health co-benefits of AIMS III scenarios. For a rapidly expanding, energy hungry region like SE Asia generation is power generation is expected to increase significantly. The AIMS III scenarios' capacity expansion modeling suggest that: 1) Generation nearly doubles from 2025 to 2040 in all four AIMS III scenarios; 2) Most of the increased generation is met by coal in all four AIMS III scenarios; 3) While renewables generation increases in all four AIMS III scenarios, the fraction of total generation (its share) generally decreases because of the much greater increase in non-renewable sources, mostly coal. Only in the High RE Target scenario do renewables represent a higher share in 2040 than in 2025, though even here it is at the expense of natural gas rather than coal; 4) As a result, emissions of gaseous and aerosol pollutants increase significantly in all scenarios. Because emissions increase in 2040 compared to 2025 for all four AIMS III scenarios, so do PM2.5 concentrations. Even for the High RE Target scenario (the scenario with highest share of renewable energy), compared to the Base scenario in 2025, in 2040 PM2.5 concentrations are higher. Compared to the Base scenario in the same years, the Optimum RE and ASEAN RE Target scenarios do not differ very much from the Base in terms of PM2.5 concentration. The High RE Target scenario, on the other hand, yields noticeably lower PM2.5 concentration. For example, in 2040 the population-weighted decrease in annual average PM2.5 concentration in the High RE Target scenario relative to the Base scenario is 0.5 ug m-3. Compared to the Base scenario in 2040, each of the alternative AIMS III scenarios is estimated to result in net reductions in power-sector air quality-related excess mortality in the ASEAN region. Yet there are a few countries for which the Optimum RE and ASEAN RE Target result in increases in PM2.5-related excess mortality (Thailand and Vietnam for the ASEAN RE Target scenario and Thailand for the Optimum RE scenario). However, for the High RE Target scenario, all countries benefit and find reductions in excess mortality resulting from the power sector scenarios modeled in AIMS III with regionwide mortality decreasing by 16,000 compared to the Base scenario in 2040. In summary, our analysis finds that changing power generation emissions is a crucial lever for improving public health in ASEAN member countries and provides a pathway for policymakers to make decision backed by a realistic power sector expansion and air quality analyses.

air quality↗

Towards intelligent emergency control for large-scale power systems: Convergence of learning, physics, computing and control

Here, this paper has delved into the pressing need for intelligent emergency control in large-scale power systems, which are experiencing significant transformations and are operating closer to their limits with more uncertainties. Learning-based control methods are promising and have shown effectiveness for intelligent power system control. However, when they are applied to large-scale power systems, there are multifaceted challenges such as scalability, adaptiveness, and security posed by the complex power system landscape, which demand comprehensive solutions. The paper first proposes and instantiates a convergence framework for integrating power systems physics, machine learning, advanced computing, and grid control to realize intelligent grid control at a large scale. Our developed methods and platform based on the convergence framework have been applied to a large (more than 3000 buses) Texas power system, and tested with 56 000 scenarios. Our work achieved a 26% reduction in load shedding on average and outperformed existing rule-based control in 99.7% of the test scenarios. The results demonstrated the potential of the proposed convergence framework and DRL-based intelligent control for the future grid.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Correlating Impacts of Injected Fuels on Carbon Emissions in Blast Furnace with Computational Fluid Dynamics Modeling

A major challenge for steelmaking is the reduction of CO 2 emissions. In this regard, the blast furnace (BF) is critical due to the high associated CO 2 levels. This investigation assesses the impact of tuyere‐injected fuels on BF CO 2 emissions. Specifically, computational fluid dynamics results obtained previously at Purdue University Northwest are analyzed to obtain CO 2 emissions when natural gas (NG), syngas, hydrogen, or hydrogen/NG are injected. CO 2 emissions are compared with those produced when 95 kg of NG/thm is injected. Among these scenarios, the largest CO 2 reduction occurs when 102 kg of syngas/thm (COG feedstock #1) is injected at 973 K, reducing CO 2 by 190.6 kg thm −1 . The largest CO 2 reduction obtained with NG occurs when 130 kg thm −1 is injected at 600 K, reducing emissions by 65 kg thm −1 . H 2 injection also reduces CO 2 , but requires careful adjusting to reach stable operation. For instance, injecting 35 kg of H 2 /thm reduces CO 2 by 52 kg thm −1 . Increasing gaseous injection rates can significantly reduce CO 2 emissions, with fuel preheating providing an addendum, but high injection rates can lead to unstable operation. Furthermore, results show a correlation between CO 2 emissions and average temperature of shaft region for multiple fuels and injection conditions.

Metallurgy & Metallurgical Engineering↗

Deciphering Reaction Mechanisms of Molecular Proton Reduction Catalysts with Cyclic Voltammetry: Kinetic vs Thermodynamic Control

The kinetics and thermodynamics of elementary reaction steps involved in the catalytic reduction of protons to hydrogen define the reaction landscape for catalysis. The mechanisms can differ in the order of the elementary proton transfer, electron transfer, and bond-forming steps and can be further differentiated by the sites at which protons and electrons localize. Access to fully elucidated mechanistic, kinetic, and thermochemical details of molecular catalysts is crucial to facilitate the development of new catalysts that operate with optimal efficiency, selectivity, and durability. The mechanism by which a catalyst operates, as well as the kinetics and thermodynamics associated with the individual steps, can often be accessed through electroanalytical studies. Here, this Account details the application of cyclic voltammetry to interrogate reaction mechanisms and quantify the kinetics and thermodynamics of elementary reaction steps for a series of molecular catalysts that mediate electrochemical proton reduction. I distinguish the limiting scenarios wherein a catalyst operates under kinetic control vs thermodynamic control, with a focus on detecting how cyclic voltammetry features shift with proton source strength and concentration, as well as scan rate. For systems that operate under kinetic control, catalytic currents are observed at, or slightly positive toward, the formal potential for the redox process that triggers catalysis. Under thermodynamic control, catalytic responses shift as a function of the proton source pKa and effective pH of the solution. After drawing this distinction, we introduce the appropriate voltammetry experiments and accompanying analytical expressions for extracting key metrics from the data. To illustrate analytical strategies to quantify elementary reaction steps of catalysts operating under kinetic control, I describe our studies of proton reduction catalysts Co(dmgBF 2 ) 2 (CH 3 CN) 2 (dmgBF 2 = difluoroboryl-dimethylglyoxime) and [Ni(P 2 Ph N 2 Ph ) 2 ] 2+ (P 2 Ph N 2 Ph = 1,5-phenyl-3,7-phenyl-1,5-diaza-3,7-diphosphacyclooctane). Here, peak shift analysis, foot-of-the-wave analysis, and plateau current analysis are applied to data sets wherein voltammetric response are recorded as a function of catalyst concentration, proton source concentration, proton source strength, and scan rate to quantify rate constants for elementary proton transfer and bond-forming steps in a catalytic cycle. Further, the case study of [Ni(P 2 Ph N 2 Ph ) 2 ] 2+ illustrates how complementary spectroscopic methods can bolster the mechanistic assignment. Collectively, these two studies showcase how detailed mechanistic studies inform on rate-limiting elementary steps in catalysis and other key processes underpinning catalysis. Second, I present analytical strategies to interrogate catalysts operating under thermodynamic control, centered on the case study of [Ni II (P 2 Ph N 2 Bn ) 2 ] 2+ (P 2 Ph N 2 Bn = 1,5-dibenzyl-3,7-diphenyl-1,5-diaza-3,7-diphosphacyclooctane). Here, the application of nonaqueous Pourbaix theory to extract thermodynamic information is introduced, and the construction of a coupled Pourbaix diagram is detailed. This study identifies ligand-based protonation as the key process that places catalysis under thermodynamic control and influences the reaction mechanism. Together, the work detailed in this Account showcases the utility of electroanalytical methods to disentangle complex reaction mechanisms and extract key thermochemical and kinetic parameters for elementary steps of catalysis. Through detailed presentation of the key analytical expressions that underpin these analyses, this Account seeks to facilitate the adoption of cyclic voltammetry by the community to fully extract kinetic, thermochemical, and mechanistic information on electrochemical small-molecule activation.

catalysts↗

When to vaccinate for seasonal influenza: check the peak forecast

Background Seasonal influenza infects 5-20% of people every year in the United States, resulting in hospitalizations, deaths, and adverse economic impacts. To mitigate these impacts, influenza vaccines are developed and distributed annually; however, growing evidence suggests that vaccine effectiveness (VE) wanes over the course of a flu season. Delaying influenza vaccination for older adults has attracted attention as a potential public health strategy. However, given the uncertainties in seasonal peak, vaccine effectiveness, and waning rates, postponing vaccination could also lead to increased morbidity, motivating an evaluation of a range of potential scenarios. The aim of this study was to investigate favorable age group-specific vaccination schedules that could lead to the greatest disease burden reduction. Methods We systematically investigated a broad range of vaccination start times for five age groups under six combinations of initial effectiveness and waning rates, based on influenza cases and vaccine uptake data from 10 influenza seasons. We defined the most favorable vaccination schedule as the one that resulted in the greatest reduction in disease burden. Results In scenarios with fast waning, all age groups benefit from delaying vaccination regardless of initial VE and peak timing. In scenarios with slower waning, results are mixed. For the ≥65 group, high initial VE and slow waning suggests that in early-peaking seasons, early vaccination most effectively reduces disease burden, while in late-peaking seasons delaying vaccination is most effective. For the ≥65 group in medium and low initial VE, and slow waning scenarios, delaying vaccination appears to prevent the greatest number of cases, regardless of whether the season peaks early or late. Conclusion The most favorable vaccination schedule is sensitive to changes in initial VE, waning rate, and peak timing. Given estimates of these quantities from statistical and immunological models and observations, our methods can inform vaccination recommendations in order to most effectively reduce the annual disease burden caused by seasonal influenza. Specifically, accurate peak timing forecasts for the upcoming season have the potential to guide decisions on when to vaccinate.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗