Development of a Tool to Calculate the System Cost of Replacement Energy (SCoRE)
Presentation for the 2022 Carbon Management Project Review Meetings
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Presentation for the 2022 Carbon Management Project Review Meetings
This presentation outlines the SCoRE tool, which can be used to identify the least-cost technology substitution pathway to meeting a decarbonization target within an operating region of the United States. The presentation showcases results from an application of the tool in the ERCOT operating region.
A structured decision metrics analysis was developed as one of the tasks under PROACTIVE’s Focus Area 4 (FA4) and used structured decision metrics for processes, items, and facilities (PIF) to determine the efficacy of an M&V system in meeting treaty goals and technical objectives. The method starts with the functional decomposition of a “treaty” with the M&V system overlaid on it. A Functional Decomposition Rubric (FDR) for each PIF is used to determine a score ranging from 0 (weak) to 4 (strong) for assurance, security, and burden. The individual scores are combined to provide an overall Verification System Score (VSS) which assesses the overall verification system’s suitability given goals; scores for each step of the process are also given. The outcome of the evaluation is to identify needs or modifications to the enterprise model, verification system, or proposed testbed capabilities. VeriScore was used to evaluate FA4’s Spiral 0 exercise; those results are included in this report. The VeriScore and FDR framework can also be used in a non-treaty environment, as any goal/objective/method structure will work, thus expanding its applicability beyond traditional arms control structures.
Supply disruptions and infrastructure failures in natural gas networks present critical challenges to energy reliability and risk-informed planning. This study evaluates two supply prioritization strategies, Maximum Delivery Prioritization (MDP) and Demand-Based Prioritization (DBP), within an arbitrary natural gas network under conditions of supply shortage. Model performance under both strategies is assessed in response to node and edge failure using demand satisfaction metrics, system-wide and localized dependency scores, and geographic information system (GIS)-based spatial analysis. Results show that DBP better preserves supply for high-demand nodes, while MDP offers broader coverage. The underlying network topology plays a critical role in shaping prioritization outcomes. Integrated GIS visualization enhances the interpretability of vulnerability assessments, revealing structurally critical components and localized vulnerabilities. The proposed framework supports scalable, data-driven decision-making for infrastructure planners and engineers, enabling improved disruption recovery and efficiency in constrained natural gas networks. These insights contribute to the development of more robust energy systems capable of withstanding stress and disruptions.
The following work has been completed to satisfy the Phase I Deliverables for the "HPT Clearance Control" project under NASA GRC's "Intelligent Engine Systems" program: (1) Need for the development of an advanced HPT ACC system has been very clearly laid out, (2) Several existing and potential clearance control systems have been reviewed, (3) A scorecard has been developed to document the system, performance (fuel burn, range, payload, etc.), thermal, and mechanical characteristics of the existing clearance control systems, (4) Engine size and flight cycle selection for the advanced HPT ACC system has been reviewed with "large engine"/"long range mission" combination showing the most benefit, (5) A scoring criteria has been developed to tie together performance parameters for an objective, data driven comparison of competing systems, and (6) The existing HPT ACC systems have been scored based on this scoring system.
The purpose of the Sentiment of Search Study for NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) is to gain insight into the intranet search environment. With an initial usability survey, the authors were able to determine a usability score based on the Systems Usability Scale (SUS). Created in 1986, the freely available, well cited, SUS is commonly used to determine user perceptions of a system (in this case the intranet search environment). As with any improvement initiative, one must first examine and document the current reality of the situation. In this scenario, a method was needed to determine the usability of a search interface in addition to the user's perception on how well the search system was providing results. The use of the SUS provided a mechanism to quickly ascertain information in both areas, by adding one additional open-ended question at the end. The first ten questions allowed us to examine the usability of the system, while the last questions informed us on how the users rated the performance of the search results. The final analysis provides us with a better understanding of the current situation and areas to focus on for improvement. The power of search applications to enhance knowledge transfer is indisputable. The performance impact for any user unable to find needed information undermines project lifecycle, resource and scheduling requirements. Ever-increasing complexity of content and the user interface make usability considerations for the intranet, especially for search, a necessity instead of a 'nice-to-have'. Despite these arguments, intranet usability is largely disregarded due to lack of attention beyond the functionality of the infrastructure (White, 2013). The data collected from users of the JSC search system revealed their overall sentiment by means of the widely-known System Usability Scale. Results of the scores suggest 75%, +/-0.04, of the population rank the search system below average. In terms of a grading scaled, this equated to D or lower. It is obvious JSC users are not satisfied with the current situation, however they are eager to provide information and assistance in improving the search system. A majority of the respondents provided feedback on the issues most troubling them. This information will be used to enrich the next phase, root cause analysis and solution creation.
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Cyber Testing for Resilient Industrial Control Systems™ (CyTRICS™) is the Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) program for cybersecurity vulnerability testing, digital subcomponent enumeration, and forensic assessment. CyTRICS leverages best-in-class test facilities and analytic capabilities at six DOE National Laboratories and strategic partnerships with key stakeholders including technology developers, manufacturers, asset owners and operators, and interagency partners. During the program’s development, CyTRICS established a unique methodology for prioritizing digital components within operational technology (OT) and industrial control systems (ICS) in the Energy Sector Industrial Base (ESIB) for cyber vulnerability testing. The CyTRICS prioritization process leverages multiple characteristics of systems, components, and their contextual deployment to calculate a quantification of individual digital components for CyTRICS testing. The initial version of the CyTRICS prioritization process was premised largely upon the impact which could result to an energy sector industrial control system if the digital component under testing was compromised, either through malicious means, faulty engineering, or other modes. CyTRICS has termed this process the “CyTRICS Impact-based Prioritization Process.” This paper describes the factors identified for use in the Impact-based Prioritization process and identifies the rationale for inclusion. During development, three National Laboratories piloted this prioritization process and generated prioritization scores for seven systems. Following the piloting of the process, laboratory subject matter experts (SME) validated that the numerical scores generated by the prioritization process were consistent with their knowledge of the impact that may occur should any of these systems be disrupted. The following document explains how to perform the prioritization process to generate prioritization scores for energy sector systems. After outlining assumptions required to conduct the process, it describes how to identify and elicit data which can be leveraged to evaluate a system and assign numerical values for each factor. The prioritization process uses different weights on different factors; rationale for each weight is included within the paper. Additionally, the paper includes some recommendations for future enhancements to prioritization, including lessons learned from developing and piloting the process. Finally, a comprehensive appendix includes example documents to be leveraged by those looking to execute the prioritization process.
This work is aimed at understanding the aspects of designing a miniature mass spectrometer (MS) system. A multitude of commercial and government sectors, such as the military, environmental agencies and industrial manufacturers of semiconductors, refrigerants, and petroleum products, would find a small, portable, rugged and reliable MS system beneficial. Several types of small MS systems are evaluated and discussed, including linear quadrupole, quadrupole ion trap, time of flight and sector. The performance of each system in terms of accuracy, precision, limits of detection, response time, recovery time, scan rate, volume and weight is assessed. A performance scale is setup to rank each systems and an overall performance score is given to each system. All experiments involved the analysis of hydrogen, helium, oxygen and argon in a nitrogen background with the concentrations of the components of interest ranging from 0-5000 part-per-million (ppm). The relative accuracies of the systems vary from < 1% to approx. 40% with an average below 10%. Relative precisions varied from 1% to 20%, with an average below 5%. The detection limits had a large distribution, ranging from 0.2 to 170 ppm. The systems had a diverse response time ranging from 4 s to 210 s as did the recovery time with a 6 s to 210 s distribution. Most instruments had scan times near, 1 s, however one instrument exceeded 13 s. System weights varied from 9 to 52 kg and sizes from 15 x 10(exp 3)cu cm to 110 x 10(exp 3) cu cm.
Here, to address the cyber-physical security in PV farms, a hybrid cyber-attack detection is proposed in this manuscript. To secure PV farms, the proposed method integrates model-based and data-driven methods by fusing the detection score at the device and system levels. First, a model-based cyber-attack detection method is developed for each PV inverter. A residual between the estimation of the Kalman filter and measurement is calculated. By leveraging the calculated residual from all inverters, a squared Mahalanobis distance is developed for device detection score generation. At the system level, a convolutional neural network (CNN) is proposed to detect cyber-attack using the waveform data at the point of common coupling (PCC) in PV farms. To improve the CNN detection accuracy, a set of well-designed features are extracted from the raw waveform data. Finally, a weighted detection score fusion method is proposed to combine device and system detection scores by using their complementary strength. The feasibility and robustness of the proposed method are validated by testing cases and a comparative experiment.
On-demand transit (ODT) systems are increasing in number and size. In order to evaluate and quantify outcomes, we use the Mobility Energy Productivity (MEP) metric, a holistic tool to analyze, quantify, and compare the mobility and accessibility of various transportation modes in a specific area. In this paper, we apply the MEP tool to the ODT system in Arlington, Texas, and compare the results among four existing transportation modes (drive, transportation network company, transit, and bike) and five additional ODT scenarios. We focus our analysis on the opportunities that an ODT system presents such as serving disadvantages communities. While the results in Arlington show the typical U.S. pattern of driving receiving the highest MEP score, the ODT system best serves those in disadvantaged communities, helping with an equity design goal. ODT improved the average MEP score across the service area by 100% when considering only non-private vehicle modes (bike, transit, and ODT). For the ODT scenarios, decreasing the wait time 50% compared to the baseline scenario led to a nearly 160% increase in MEP score, while increasing the ODT travel speed by 21% led to an 80% improvement in MEP score. The decreased wait time scenario had the highest MEP score out of the six ODT scenarios. This paper demonstrates how ODT can enhance mobility, particularly for disadvantaged communities. The results of a MEP analysis can be used by researchers and transit agencies to compare transportation modes and improve the effectiveness of transportation systems in subareas across a service area.
This project developed a framework for asset and system risk management that can be incorporated into current electricity system operations to improve economic efficiency and establish an Electric Assets Risk Bureau. We leveraged scoring and ratings from banking and financial institutions alongside current optimization methods in dispatching power systems to help system operators and electricity markets schedule resources. This approach is based on the observation that there are major discrepancies between the power scheduled by a system operator and the actual power generated/consumed. These discrepancies—exacerbated by unplanned contingencies (e.g., natural disasters)—are caused by multiple factors, including the different financial, environmental and risk preferences of power producers, consumers, and aggregators. We developed a framework that counteracts two failures in electricity system operations: imperfect information and missing markets for products. The technical approach included five tasks. Tasks 1 and 2 supported the development of risk scores at the asset level with historical data collected for this project. Tasks 3, 4, and 5 incorporated scoring into decision-making at the system level. The proposed effort achieved PERFORM's Program Objectives because the proposed outputs and algorithms do not exist in the electricity industry and are an innovative approach to managing risk. Since the acknowledged need to better assess and act upon risk profiles for grid assets has not been met by the industry, this project will also impact ARPA-E's Mission Areas, including improving energy efficiency and giving the U.S. a technological lead in advanced energy technologies.
The Chemical Recommender System (CRS) is an open-source, high-performance toolkit that enables real-time similarity searches across the complete PubChem database (over 50 million molecules) using commodity hardware. The CRS addresses critical limitations in existing chemical informatics platforms through a novel vector database infrastructure, extensible model integration capabilities, and complete algorithmic transparency. The system implements a vector database deployment with partitioned indexing that achieves a ~60x speedup over traditional approaches. A containerized model integration framework allows researchers to seamlessly incorporate custom predictive models into the full-scale search and scoring pipeline, while complete configurability of search parameters, filtering logic, and scoring functions provides capabilities not available in existing black-box solutions. Beyond structural similarity, the CRS integrates OPERA QSAR models for thermophysical and toxicity predictions, RDKit synthetic accessibility scoring, and user-defined models to compute weighted final replacement scores. The complete system is accessible through an interactive web application supporting real-time progress monitoring, post-processing score re-weighting, automated PDF reporting, and batch processing capabilities.
One of the primary hindrances to producing a viable, sustainable domestic biomass industry for renewable biofuels, bio-products and bio-power is the lack of understanding and quantification of the risks associated with both the biomass supply chain and preprocessing and conversion technologies. Currently a consistent method for assessing, comparing, and quantifying risks in biomass supply chains does not exist, creating a major investment barrier to bioenergy projects in the U.S. The lack of a standardized approach has resulted in bioenergy stakeholders independently using inconsistent approaches and evaluation criteria, leading to unreliable and incomparable assessments of risks and financing barriers to bio-project development. Along with the challenges of inconsistent risk assessment for supply chain risk, technology specific risks based on variability in biomass properties are not fully understood and can pose significant unforeseen challenges for bioenergy projects. In many cases these properties have not yet been identified and the impacts on the proposed technology and products unquantified. This is particularly challenging for emerging preprocessing and conversion technologies. Without a firm understanding of the preprocessing/conversion technology-specific critical properties, the risk of a proposed bio-project cannot be fully evaluated. To address inconsistent risk evaluation in the biomass supply chain supporting project financing, a Biomass Supply Chain Risk Standards (BSCRS) framework was developed. The BSCRS framework includes a comprehensive list of known and perceived risks (Risk Indicators) to the supply chain developed through 100’s of interviews with bioenergy industry experts spanning from feedstock growers and suppliers to representatives from the financial sector. These risks have been organized into a manageable hierarchy of Risk Categories and Risk Factors that can be practically assessed. This BSCRS framework also provides mitigation strategies for multiple Risk Indicators from best available industry practices and research findings. Additionally, a risk quantification methodology for each Risk Factor, Risk Category, and the bio-project as a whole was developed to enable capital markets to assess feedstock risk more efficiently and more accurately. Multiple case studies representing existing bio-projects have been used to evaluate and verify the BSCRS framework and scoring methodology. To address technological risk along with the supply chain risk captured in the developed BSCRS framework, this work also focuses on development of a systematic criticality assessment tool using well-accepted, quantitative risk analysis methods to evaluate bioenergy feedstock critical properties impacting system unit operations. The proposed Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) approach uses a team of subject area experts (SAEs) for each targeted unit operation within a system. Collectively, the team will develop and use a quantitative scoring system to assess the material attributes, process parameters, and quality attributes for key unit operations that have already been identified. The FMEA process generates Risk Priority Numbers (RPNs) for the various failures and predominant causes for each material/process unit/product combination resulting in a semi-quantitative, standardized methodology for assessing technological risk and biomass properties contributing to that risk.
A telephone survey of U.S. aerospace engineers and scientists belonging to the Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE) was conducted between December 4, 1991 and January 5, 1992. The survey was undertaken to (1) validate the telephone survey as an appropriate technique for collecting data from U.S. aerospace engineers and scientists; (2) collect information about how the results of NASA/DoD aerospace research are used in the R&D process; (3) identify those selection criteria which affect the use of federally-funded aerospace R&D; and (4) obtain information that could be used to develop a self-administered mail questionnaire for use with the same population. The average rating of importance of U.S. government technical reports was 2.5 (on a 4-point scale); The mean/median number of times U.S. government technical reports were used per 6 months was 8/2. Factors scoring highest for U.S. government technical reports were technical accuracy (2.9), reliable data and technical information (2.8), and contains comprehensive data and information (2.7) on a 4-point system. The factors scoring highest for influencing the use of U.S. government technical reports were relevance (3.1), technical accuracy (3.06), and reliable data/information (3.02). Ease of use, familiarity, technical accuracy, and relevance correlated with use of U.S. government technical reports. Survey demographics, survey questionnaire, and the NASA/DoD Aerospace Knowledge Diffusion Research Project publications list are included.
Computer program description and sample printout for orbital mission by Voyager project - users manual
Improvements to building control systems can lead to energy savings and increased occupant comfort. In an optimized system, process variables such as air temperature will closely follow their desired setpoints and avoid excess energy use. Typically, experts must manually inspect individual control loops to identify poor performance and opportunities for improvement. However, this approach is difficult in modern buildings that have a prohibitively large number of controllers. To address this issue, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) created the ControlScore concept, which takes operating data from the many controllers within a building and generates standardized scores for each loop on a scale of 0 to 10 (a score of 0 indicates poor control, a score of 10 indicates good control). PNNL applied the Building ControlScore application to all available data from a General Services Administration office building within the period of January 1, 2023, to March 9, 2023. The building scored a 4.7 overall, with all 74 of the building’s loops fitting a roughly normal distribution centered around 5. These results indicate that the analyzed systems have below-average performance with room for improvement, especially in the poorly scored systems. Airflow loops tended to have much lower scores than zone temperature loops. The lowest and highest performing systems in the building section were identified, as were all loops with a score less than 1. While the ControlScore identifies loops and systems that aren’t meeting their designated setpoints, it does not indicate the cause of those issues. For example, consider a supply air terminal unit’s airflow loop that received a low score due to it delivering less air than specified by the setpoint. The lower-than-desired airflow could be due to equipment limitations (e.g., the terminal unit or duct serving is too small to accommodate that airflow), malfunctioning equipment (e.g., a stuck damper or bad sensor), or something else entirely. The ControlScore does not diagnose problems it simply identifies the symptoms that can be explored and addressed by building operators.
Researchers conducted a usability study using two graphical user interfaces (GUIs) to explore how individuals interpret and interact with different preflight information displays, and to inform the development of Uncrewed Aircraft System (UAS) preflight planning predictive support tools to assess and mitigate flight hazards and risks. A series of preflight risk-assessment tasks were developed to evaluate participant performance using the Supplemental Data Service Provider-Consolidated Dashboard (SDSP-CD) and the Human Automation Team Interface System (HATIS) GUIs. Participants were trained to use both interfaces and their performance was evaluated. These evaluations focused on participants’ preflight planning activities. Objective data on performance tasks across different scenarios involving multi-UASs, as well as self-reports of interactions and subjective experiences using the GUIs were collected. Scores on the system usability scale (SUS) and on a simple task set were examined, as well as user feedback on open-ended questions, to inform development and identify potential improvements to the interfaces.