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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

System Health and Status Reporting is Used to Improve Infrastructure Systems at the Hanford Site - 20449

Reliable physical infrastructure systems are vital to completing the clean-up mission and the start-up and commissioning of new nuclear waste processing facilities at the Hanford Site. Key infrastructure systems at Hanford include water, sewer, and electrical utilities, roads, telecommunications/network systems, and fire systems. All of the infrastructure systems are non-nuclear, General Service systems that are being maintained under formal engineering configuration control and none are specifically credited in any documented safety analysis (DSA). Starting in calendar year 2017, the Hanford Site's infrastructure and services contractor started producing system health and status reports for a total of 15 critical infrastructure systems as means to get a better understanding of each system's health and how it could be improved to ensure better and more reliable service delivery. As the reporting, tracking, and use of the metrics has matured, the number of systems for which reports are being developed has been expanded to a total of 23. Each of the critical infrastructure systems are assigned primary and alternate design authorities that complete qualifications on each assigned system. The design authorities actively manage and maintain configuration control on each of their systems and track metrics associated with availability, maintenance (corrective and preventive), and configuration of the technical baseline. The metrics are based on the principles established in Chapter V of DOE O 420.1C, Facility Safety, [1] and have been tailored as appropriate to each of the key infrastructure systems. An overall assessment of system health is performed and documented on a routine basis (e.g., quarterly). Included in this documentation is a quantitative score for each of the metrics (i.e., availability, maintenance, configuration management) along with results of system walk-downs, description of any permanent design modifications, identification of new or emerging issues and vulnerabilities affecting the system, and an assessment by the design authority of actions necessary to improve the system health score. The overall status scores are calculated using a formula and based on a pre-determined grading scale, a color is assigned for simple presentation. The information gained from developing the reports is being used to (1) assist with making timely and better informed decisions through the use of solid technical bases that are increasing the overall reliability and capabilities of the Site's infrastructure systems as new expense and capital projects in the Reliability Projects Investment Portfolio (RPIP) are prioritized and executed; (2) feed the risk management program, and (3) integrate the technical content of Master Plans that describe the Site's needs for the system and the system's capabilities to meet those future needs. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2020

Computer-aided classification of suspicious pigmented lesions using wide-field images

Early identification of melanoma is conducted through whole-body visual examinations to detect suspicious pigmented lesions, a situation that fluctuates in accuracy depending on the experience and time of the examiner. Computer-aided diagnosis tools for skin lesions are typically trained using pre-selected single-lesion images, taken under controlled conditions, which limits their use in wide-field scenes. Here, we propose a computer-aided classifier system with such input conditions to aid in the rapid identification of suspicious pigmented lesions at the primary care level. 133 patients with a multitude of skin lesions were recruited for this study. All lesions were examined by a board-certified dermatologist and classified into “suspicious” and “non-suspicious”. A new clinical database was acquired and created by taking Wide-Field images of all major body parts with a consumer-grade camera under natural illumination condition and with a consistent source of image variability. 3–8 images were acquired per patient on different sites of the body, and a total of 1759 pigmented lesions were extracted. A machine learning classifier was optimized and build into a computer aided classification system to binary classify each lesion using a suspiciousness score. In a testing set, our computer-aided classification system achieved a sensitivity of 100% for suspicious pigmented lesions that were later confirmed by dermoscopy examination (“SPL_A”) and 83.2% for suspicious pigmented lesions that were not confirmed after examination (“SPL_B”). Sensitivity for non-suspicious lesions was 72.1%, and accuracy was 75.9%. With these results we defined a suspiciousness score that is aligned with common macro-screening (naked eye) practices. This work demonstrates that wide-field photography combined with computer-aided classification systems can distinguish suspicious from non-suspicious pigmented lesions, and might be effective to assess the severity of a suspicious pigmented lesions. We believe this approach could be useful to support skin screenings at a population-level.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Prognosis of Wind Turbine Gearbox Bearing Failures Using SCADA and Modeled Data

Predictive maintenance and condition monitoring systems for wind turbines have seen increased adoption to minimize downtime, reducing operation and maintenance costs. On today’s wind power plants, the integrated supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) system provides low- frequency operational data that can be leveraged to quantify a wind turbine’s health. The aim of this study is to utilize machine-learning techniques to predict axial cracking failures in wind turbine gearbox bearings up to 1 month ahead of time. The failures are assumed to have occurred when the investigated bearing was replaced. While current SCADA systems show the overall condition of a wind turbine, often they do not allow for the investigation of specific gearbox bearings’ health. To enrich bearing fault signatures, additional data are computed through physics-based models using gearbox design information. Based on SCADA data, modeled data, and bearing failure log data from an actual wind plant, the performances of different machine-learning models on unseen data are then evaluated using industry-standard metrics such as precision, recall, and F1 score. Results show the overall system performance enhancement in predicting bearing failure when modeled data are included with SCADA data. The reduction in terms of false alarms is about 50%, and improvement in terms of precision and F1 score is about 33% and 12% respectively, based on the best modeling case in this study.

49 EE - Wind and Water Power Program - Wind (EE-4W↗
DOE OSTI2026

Early calendar life and health prediction of silicon batteries via machine learning with uncertainty quantification

Lithium-ion batteries with silicon anodes promise high energy density but are limited by calendar lifetime. Reducing the long iteration time to obtain experimental results requires predicting calendar lifetime early in a cell's life. In this study, we demonstrate that lightweight machine learning models with feature engineering can provide calendar lifetime estimates from early electrochemical signals. After 1 month of electrochemical aging, the best models achieve 10% error in calendar-life prediction and can separate "bad" from "good" lifetime cells with a mean F1 score of 0.857. As battery systems exhibit inherent variability, four methods for uncertainty quantification are compared, and confidence intervals are demonstrated with an uncertainty of +-3.6 months in lifetime prediction. A feature importance analysis indicates that early patterns in voltage decay are the strongest indicators of calendar lifetime. Finally, this modeling approach has high error when generalizing to new electrode chemistries or testing conditions but with appropriately low confidence.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Connectivity, Centrality, and Bottleneckedness: On Graph Theoretic Methods for Power Systems

This report provides an introduction to selected graph theoretic topics with pertinence to the structural analysis of electric power grid and communication systems. We focus on methodologies for defining, scoring, and identifying connectivity, spectral, and bottleneckeness properties in graphs, as well as vertex and edge importance measures such as centrality. We apply these measures to power systems and communications graph data, discuss and visualize the results, and comment on computational aspects of these methods. We show that graph theoretic methods can provide useful insights into grid and communication network structure, leading to tools and methods that could be used by electric utility engineers to improve key grid and communication network characteristics, such as resilience and scalability.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

A User-Facing Metric to Quantify the Quality of Mobility (CRADA Final Report)

The leading urban mobility data analytics firm StreetLight Data, Inc. partnered with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory to explore a commercial version of the Mobility Energy Productivity (MEP) metric. The commercialization effort was aimed to expand the adoption of the metric to key stakeholders in the urban planning space. Research comprised industry analysis, stakeholder feedback and conducting transportation practitioner focus groups. StreetLight concluded that commercialization of MEP is not feasible in the current market because users need a dynamic MEP tool that enables scenario planning. It should be able to calculate a MEP score dynamically (near instantaneous) when different inputs are changed.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2023

A new control score concept for building performance assessment

In buildings, performance assessment often focuses on energy use with metrics such as energy use intensity (EUI) used to benchmark performance. However, energy performance of a building is fundamentally determined by the control system that engages the energy-using systems. There are two aspects of control that are of particular importance: (1) the ability to regulate process variables to their setpoints; and (2) whether the setpoints are at the right levels and/or following desired profiles. Most buildings do not reach their energy efficiency potential due to deficiencies in control performance and operators do not have access to metrics that can illuminate these deficiencies. Here this paper addresses this problem by providing novel techniques that combine these two aspects of control performance into a single standardized score on the scale of 0-10. The concept of a standardized control scores enables all systems in a building to be compared on the same scale and also for scores to be rolled up to different levels in the building and system hierarchy for system-wide analysis. The paper presents the theory for the method, describes a prototype tool for displaying scores, and presents results from application to a large building in Minneapolis.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

A time-varying vulnerability index for COVID-19 in New Mexico, USA using generalized propensity scores

The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has highlighted systemic inequities in the United States and resulted in a larger burden of negative social outcomes for marginalized communities. New Mexico, a state in the southwestern US, has a unique population with a large racial minority population and a high rate of poverty that may make communities more vulnerable to negative social outcomes from COVID-19. To identify which communities may be at the highest relative risk, we created a county-level vulnerability index. After the first COVID-19 case was reported in New Mexico on March 11, 2020, we fit a generalized propensity score model that incorporates sociodemographic factors to predict county-level viral exposure and thus, the generic risk to negative social outcomes such as unemployment or mental health impacts. We used four static sociodemographic covariates important for the state of New Mexico—population, poverty, household size, and minority population—and weekly cumulative case counts to iteratively run our model each week and normalize the exposure score to create a time-varying vulnerability index. We found the relative vulnerability between counties varied in the first eight weeks from the initial COVID-19 case before stabilizing. This framework for creating a location-specific vulnerability index in response to an ongoing disaster may be used as a quick, deployable metric to inform health policy decisions such as allocating state resources to the county level.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Informing selection of drugs for COVID-19 treatment through adverse events analysis

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an ongoing pandemic and there is an urgent need for safe and effective drugs for COVID-19 treatment. Since developing a new drug is time consuming, many approved or investigational drugs have been repurposed for COVID-19 treatment in clinical trials. Therefore, selection of safe drugs for COVID-19 patients is vital for combating this pandemic. Our goal was to evaluate the safety concerns of drugs by analyzing adverse events reported in post-market surveillance. We collected 296 drugs that have been evaluated in clinical trials for COVID-19 and identified 28,597,464 associated adverse events at the system organ classes (SOCs) level in the FDA adverse events report systems (FAERS). We calculated Z-scores of SOCs that statistically quantify the relative frequency of adverse events of drugs in FAERS to quantitatively measure safety concerns for the drugs. Analyzing the Z-scores revealed that these drugs are associated with different significantly frequent adverse events. Our results suggest that this safety concern metric may serve as a tool to inform selection of drugs with favorable safety profiles for COVID-19 patients in clinical practices. Caution is advised when administering drugs with high Z-scores to patients who are vulnerable to associated adverse events.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

AI-Enabled Operations at Fermi Complex: Multivariate Time Series Prediction for Outage Prediction and Diagnosis

The Main Control Room of the Fermilab accelerator complex continuously gathers extensive time-series data from thousands of sensors monitoring the beam. However, unplanned events such as trips or voltage fluctuations often result in beam outages, causing operational downtime. This downtime not only consumes operator effort in diagnosing and addressing the issue but also leads to unnecessary energy consumption by idle machines awaiting beam restoration. The current threshold-based alarm system is reactive and faces challenges including frequent false alarms and inconsistent outage-cause labeling. To address these limitations, we propose an AI-enabled framework that leverages predictive analytics and automated labeling. Using data from $2,703$ Linac devices and $80$ operator-labeled outages, we evaluate state-of-the-art deep learning architectures, including recurrent, attention-based, and linear models, for beam outage prediction. Additionally, we assess a Random Forest-based labeling system for providing consistent, confidence-scored outage annotations. Our findings highlight the strengths and weaknesses of these architectures for beam outage prediction and identify critical gaps that must be addressed to fully harness AI for transitioning downtime handling from reactive to predictive, ultimately reducing downtime and improving decision-making in accelerator management.

Jain, Milan [PNL, Richland] (ORCID:000000021676111↗
DOE OSTI2024

Data-Driven Model for Photovoltaic Generation: Comparison with Physical Models Using a Microgrid in Puerto Rico

Photovoltaic (PV) generation is a critical component of microgrids, but its accurate modeling is challenging due to the complex and dynamic interactions between solar irradiance, temperature, and PV system installation. This paper develops a multilayer perceptron (MLP) model that inputs solar irradiance and temperature to estimate the PV generation, and it compares the proposed data-driven model’s performance to two well-known physical models: the single-diode model and the inverter model. The results demonstrate that all the models can reach high levels of accuracy. However, the MLP model outperforms the physical models on average by 4.5 to 6.6 percent in R squared scores and 220 to 290 Watts in RMSE scores, and it does not require physical system parameters. Moreover, the data-driven model can overcome the limitations of the lack of real-time PV generation data.

R pesante colón, Marcos↗
DOE OSTI2023

Suppressing Quantum Circuit Errors Due to System Variability

We present a quantum circuit optimization technique that takes into account the variability in error rates that is inherent across present-day noisy quantum computing platforms. This method can be run after qubit routing or postcompilation and consists of computing isomorphic subgraphs to input circuits and scoring each using heuristic cost functions derived from system calibration data. Using an independent standard algorithmic test suite, we show that it is possible to recover on average nearly 40% of missing fidelity using better qubit selection via efficient to compute cost functions. We demonstrate additional performance gains by considering qubit placement over multiple quantum processors. The overhead from these tools is minimal with respect to other compilation steps, such as qubit routing, as the number of qubits increases. As such, our method can be used to find qubit mappings for problems at the scale of quantum advantage and beyond.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2024

Mobility Energy Productivity Evaluation of On-Demand Transit: A Case Study in Arlington, Texas

On-demand transit (ODT) systems are increasing in number and size. To evaluate and quantify outcomes, the research team utilizes the mobility energy productivity (MEP) metric, which is a holistic accessibility measure, to analyze and compare the mobility of various transportation modes in Arlington, Texas. The MEP tool is applied to the ODT system in Arlington, Texas, as well as to five existing transportation modes (driving, transportation network company, transit, biking, and walking). Six ODT scenarios are also analyzed and compared. The analysis is focused on the opportunities that an ODT system presents for transportation disadvantaged communities (DACs) with low rates of car ownership. Although driving received the highest MEP score—a finding typical for a U.S.A. city— the results for the ODT system reveal that it serves those in DACs effectively, helping to achieve an equity design goal. ODT improved the average MEP score across the service area by 83% when considering only accessible, nonprivate vehicle modes (biking, transit, and ODT). For the ODT scenarios, decreasing the wait time by 50% compared with the baseline scenario led to a nearly 160% increase in the MEP score, whereas increasing the ODT travel speed by 21% led to an 80% improvement in the MEP score. As analyzed through the MEP tool, here this paper demonstrates how ODT can enhance mobility, particularly for DACs. The results of an MEP analysis can be used by researchers and transit agencies to compare transportation modes and improve the effectiveness of transportation systems across a service area.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Determining Catalytically Relevant Surfaces through Coverage-Dependent Lattice Gas Models: Carbon Adsorption on Fe(100)

Here, we have quantified the C–C lateral interactions on Fe(100) using a density functional theory (DFT)-parameterized lattice gas cluster expansion (LG CE) model trained using 265 unique configurations spanning a C coverage from 0 to 1 monolayer (ML). Our LG CE model shows high predictive accuracy with a leave-multiple-out cross-validation score of 10.2 and 16.6 meV/site for systems with and without the top two layers of Fe atoms fixed, respectively. Electronic ground-state structures identified from the lattice gas model (including the structures at 0 and 1 monolayers) were further used to generate ab initio phase diagrams under a range of temperatures and pressures. At low temperatures (<400 K), we found that the 1.0 monolayer structure is dominant, whereas at higher temperatures (>500 K), the 0.88 ML structure is most likely to form on the Fe surface. Interestingly, our model identified a c (2 × 2) ordered structure at 1/2 ML, which correlates well with previous DFT studies for carbon adsorption on iron surfaces and matches with the experimentally observed low-energy electron diffraction structure. Overall, the DFT-parameterized energies for the C/Fe system including effects of coverage and configurational space can further help in developing multiscale models for various heterogeneous reactions involving C–C and C–Fe interactions.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2025

Building molecular model series from heterogeneous CryoEM structures using Gaussian mixture models and deep neural networks

Cryogenic electron microscopy (CryoEM) produces structures of macromolecules at near-atomic resolution. However, building molecular models with good stereochemical geometry from those structures can be challenging and time-consuming, especially when many structures are obtained from datasets with conformational heterogeneity. Here we present a model refinement protocol that automatically generates series of molecular models from CryoEM datasets, which describe the dynamics of the macromolecular system and have near-perfect geometry scores. This method makes it easier to interpret the movement of the protein complex from heterogeneity analysis and to compare the structural dynamics observed from CryoEM data with results from other experimental and simulation techniques.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Criticality Analysis of Wind Turbine Components - Intern Poster [Poster]

Wind turbines are an important part of critical energy infrastructure, with wind farms generating more than 10% of US energy in 2023. The goal of this project is to identify and analyze major, common components of wind turbines to reach a preliminary understanding of which should be considered most critical in terms of turbine operation and attack surface. At the time of this project, minimal data was available regarding component costs and lead times, so a qualitative risk assessment approach was used. Components were given a score of 1-5 in four categories– cost to repair, operational downtime, ease of physical attack, and ease of cyber attack. An overall component criticality score was assigned based on the sum of those scores, with a higher score indicating higher criticality. The turbine control system was identified as the most critical component, closely followed by the blades, structural components, and gearbox. This is ongoing project, and further research on the supply chain for wind turbine components will allow for a deeper and more concrete understanding of component criticality.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Resilience Metrics Framework for Solar Photovoltaics

This presentation was given at the Photovoltaic Specialist Conference (PVSC) 54 in New Orleans, Louisiana. Photovoltaic (PV) systems are routinely exposed to extreme weather, including wind and hail storms. Historically, most systems have proven to be resilient to such events, but some storms have damaged PV systems, leading to physical and financial loss. Storm hardening measures and specific system attributes can reduce this risk. This work introduces a set of resilience metrics and a framework for quantifying, comparing, and predicting PV system resilience. The framework is divided into two parts: 1) predictive, attribute metrics based on site and component characteristics, and 2) impact metrics that assess post-storm performance. Metrics are weighted and aggregated, producing hazard-specific resilience scores. We derive damage functions from storm-impacted PV systems, establishing a baseline against which post-storm performance can be compared. This damage was widely variable across hail and wind intensities, and field hail damage was less than predicted by laboratory tests, suggesting that system features - in addition to storm conditions - influence damage likelihood. Finally, the metrics framework is demonstrated using three case studies of storm damaged PV systems. Although additional data are needed to create attribute specific damage functions and establish metric weights, this study presents a methodology for evaluating PV resilience and contributes new damage functions to the literature.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

FEW questions, many answers: using machine learning to assess how students connect food–energy–water (FEW) concepts

There is growing support and interest in postsecondary interdisciplinary environmental education which integrate concepts and disciplines in addition to providing varied perspectives. There is a need to assess student learning in these programs as well as rigorous evaluation of educational practices, especially of complex synthesis concepts. This work tests a text classification machine learning model as a tool to assess student systems thinking capabilities using two questions anchored by the Food-Energy-Water (FEW) Nexus phenomena by answering two questions (1) Can machine learning models be used to identify instructor-determined important concepts in student responses? (2) What do college students know about the interconnections between food, energy and water, and how have students assimilated systems thinking into their constructed responses about FEW? Reported here are a broad range of model performances across 26 text classification models associated with two different assessment items, with model accuracy ranging from 0.755 to 0.992. Expert-like responses were infrequent in our dataset compared to responses providing simpler, incomplete explanations of the systems presented in the question. For those students moving from describing individual effects to multiple effects, their reasoning about the mechanism behind the system indicates advanced systems thinking ability. Specifically, students exhibit higher expertise for explaining changing water usage than discussing tradeoffs for such changing usage. This research represents one of the first attempts to assess the links between foundational, discipline-specific concepts and systems thinking ability. These text classification approaches to scoring student FEW Nexus Constructed Responses (CR) indicate how these approaches can be used, in addition to several future research priorities for interdisciplinary, practice-based education research. Development of further complex question items using machine learning would allow evaluation of the relationship between foundational concept understanding and integration of those concepts as well as more nuanced understanding of student comprehension of complex interdisciplinary concepts.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗