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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Aerosol impacts on isolated deep convection: findings from TRACER

This study focuses on quantifying the conditional relationship between aerosol and convective precipitation properties of isolated deep convective clouds (DCCs) in the Houston–Galveston region, after adjusting for confounding effects. We leverage comprehensive ground-based observations from the TRacking Aerosol Convection interactions ExpeRiment (TRACER) to estimate aerosol effects on convective echo top height (ETH), intensity, and area separately. Our results show that greater aerosol number concentrations generally have a limited impact on these convective properties, showing relationships consistent with the possibility of both invigoration and suppression effects. Under certain conditions, where ultrafine particles are abundant, aerosols exhibit a positive effect on ETH, increasing it by about 1 km. However, it is inevitable to consider measurement uncertainties and the limitations of temporal and spatial resolution in the data, as these factors can further contribute to uncertainties in our estimates. In DCCs associated with sea breezes, the estimated aerosol effects on DCCs are found to be more pronounced. However, this heightened effect could be attributed to the exclusion of key confounders such as boundary layer updrafts in the analysis.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Resource assessment of ocean thermal energy conversion in Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands

Island communities often struggle to establish and maintain traditional electric grids and are therefore heavily reliant on costly imported fossil fuels. In the case of Puerto Rico, these challenges are enhanced by extreme weather and other natural hazards that threaten the local electricity generation and transmission infrastructure. Ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) could play an important role in establishing a more resilient electrical grid in the region. Here, in this study, a detailed analysis is conducted to characterize the ocean thermal resource and power potential of OTEC in Puerto Rico based on a 14-year dataset of modeled ocean temperature. The assessment considers seasonal and interannual variability in the region's thermal resource and examines the operational limitations associated with minimal thermal gradients required to run a typical OTEC heat engine. Notably, the local thermal resource is found to be sensitive to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate patterns, with La Niña conditions linked to greater OTEC power availability. Seven areas of opportunity are identified based on their resource potential and proximity to existing electrical distribution lines, including two that could benefit the nearby U.S. Virgin Islands. The greatest OTEC power potential is observed to the south of the main island of Puerto Rico in the Caribbean Sea with an estimated capacity of 138 MW for a plant pumping cold water from a depth of 1,000 m, or the equivalent amount of electricity required to power 219,000 households.

OTEC↗
DOE OSTI2022

A framework for feasibility-level validation of high-resolution wave hindcast models

The value of long-term wave hindcasts for investigating wave climates, wave energy resources, and extreme wave conditions has motivated research developing, calibrating and validating wave hindcast models. Past hindcast model validation studies examined the accuracy in modeling bulk wave parameters of overall sea states without considering the dependency of the model's skill within different sea states. In the present study, a framework for wave hindcast model validation is developed by examining the model accuracy for the most frequently occurring sea states, sea states contributing the most energy to total wave power, sea states associated with hurricane events, and those with the largest model error. Here, validations using bulk wave parameters and frequency-directional spectra at these key sea states and extreme wave conditions based on univariate and bivariate-contour methods provide insights to improve model accuracy, identifying the model's strong and weak points, and pathways for improvement, e.g., modeling wave-current interactions and adjusting wind data. This study adds to a growing body of research demonstrating that a carefully calibrated and verified spectral wave hindcast model can be used to estimate key wave energy parameters over a wide range of wave energy climates, as well as their spatial, temporal, frequency, directional, and probabilistic distributions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Multiclass Classification Using Bayesian Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines

We present a new Bayesian model for the problem of multiclass classification. In this model, the probabilities of class membership of a given observation are determined by the mean of a latent Gaussian distribution. The mean functions of this latent distribution consist of combinations of highly flexible basis functions of the inputs: multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), first developed for multiple regression. We use reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo to make inference on the classification model, including the number of basis functions. We compare the probabilistic classification performance of our proposed approach to existing methods on simulated and benchmark data, and compare uncertainty estimates on simulated data. Our proposed method compares favorably with existing Bayesian and frequentist multiclass classification methods in out-of-sample probabilistic classification, and uncertainty estimation of these probabilistic classifications. We examine the fit of the proposed method to a data set of hurricane storm surge levels near Delaware Bay, US, and conclude that sea level rise is a key contributor to damage delivered by storm surge.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Effect of Heave Plate Hydrodynamic Force Parameterization on a Two-Body Wave Energy Converter

Heave plates are one approach to generating the reaction force necessary to harvest energy from ocean waves. In a Morison equation description of the hydrodynamic force, the components of drag and added mass depend primarily on the heave plate oscillation. These terms may be parameterized in three ways: (1) as a single coefficient invariant across sea state, most accurate at the reference sea state, (2) coefficients dependent on the oscillation amplitude, but invariant in phase, that are most accurate for relatively small amplitude motions, and (3) coefficients dependent on both oscillation amplitude and phase, which are accurate for all oscillation amplitudes. We validate a MATLAB model for a two-body point absorber wave energy converter against field data and a dynamical model constructed in ProteusDS. We then use the MATLAB model to evaluate the effect of these parameterizations on estimates of heave plate motion, tension between the float and heave plate, and wave energy converter electrical power output. We find that power predictions using amplitude-dependent coefficients differ by up to 30% from models using invariant coefficients for regular waves ranging in height from 0.5 to 1.9 m. Amplitude- and phase-dependent coefficients, however, yield less than a 5% change when compared with coefficients dependent on amplitude only. This suggests that amplitude-dependent coefficients can be important for accurate wave energy converter modeling, but the added complexity of phase-dependent coefficients yields little further benefit. We show similar, though less pronounced, trends in maximum tether tension, but note that heave plate motion has only a weak dependence on coefficient fidelity. Finally, we emphasize the importance of using experimentally derived added mass over that calculated from boundary element methods, which can lead to substantial under-prediction of power output and peak tether tension.

dynamical model↗
DOE OSTI2023

Environmental Impact Assessment of Lithium Recovery from Geothermal Brines in the SS-KGRA: An Overview

There is increasing interest in securing a reliable, domestic source of lithium in the United States to support an electrified grid and energy secure future. The Salton Sea Known Geothermal Resource Area (SS-KGRA) has garnered attention for this purpose due to the abundance of lithium in brines brought to the surface for geothermal energy production in this region. Geothermal production from this field is already expected to grow from the current 400 MWe to 920 MWe in the next 3-4 years with a potential total geothermal capacity in the region estimated at nearly 2,950 MWe. With this growth, there is potential for construction and operation of new direct lithium recovery and processing facilities to meet domestic demands for lithium. In this work, we estimate the potential impact of geothermal expansion and lithium extraction in the SS-KGRA on water use, direct air emissions from facilities, and solid waste production and management.

Busse, MM↗
DOE OSTI2026

Quasi‐Steady State Supersaturation: Do High Values Derived From ESCAPE Represent Real High Supersaturations and the Potential for Condensational Invigoration?

Deep convective clouds were intensively sampled during the Experiment of Sea Breeze Convection, Aerosols, Precipitation, and Environment (ESCAPE) with coordinated flights of the NRC Convair-580 and SPEC Learjet. A total of 219 updraft core segments were sampled over coastal Texas and Louisiana under diverse meteorological conditions. Median updraft properties included widths of ∼1 km, velocities of 4.8 m s −1 , droplet number concentrations of ∼400 cm −3 , and liquid water contents of 0.9 g m −3 . The limitations of using the quasi-steady state approximation to derive supersaturations were explored. Supersaturation (S QSS ) estimated from in situ observations under a quasi-steady state assumption averaged 0.4% but occasionally exceeded 2%, with values >1% (high supersaturations) identified as statistical outliers. Two case studies illustrated the conditions linked to high supersaturations. In a storm over the Gulf, median core S QSS reached 2.46% in the developing stage compared to 2.17% in the mature stage under similar thermodynamic conditions. In a storm over coastal Louisiana, S QSS peaked near 11% within a 13.7-m s −1 updraft, accompanied by predominantly supercooled liquid droplets at −13°C and exceptionally low diameter concentrations of 0.29 mm cm −3 . Bootstrap analysis of all sampled cores showed that high supersaturations are most probable in cold and mixed-phase regimes with moderate to strong updrafts and are strongly influenced by vertical velocity and droplet number concentrations. In conclusion, while extreme supersaturations (∼10%) were rare, their occurrence underscores the need for targeted multiplatform observations to resolve their spatiotemporal variability and assess their potential role in deep convective invigoration.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Sea spray aerosol production flux retrieval based on Doppler lidar measurements

Supermicron sea spray aerosols (SSA) play a crucial role in stratocumulus cloud microphysics and drizzle formation. However, our understanding of SSA's spatiotemporal distribution, production mechanisms, and fluxes in the marine boundary layer remains limited. This study introduces a novel approach to determine supermicron SSA production flux and number concentration at various heights above the ocean surface. Our method leverages Doppler lidar data, specifically attenuated backscatter and vertical velocity, collected at a 105 m range gate during the Eastern Pacific Clouds and Aerosols for Precipitation Experiment (EPCAPE) at Scripps Pier, La Jolla, California. To focus on nascent SSA, we analyzed data from periods with wind directions between 225° and 315° and wind speeds exceeding 4 m s −1 . Cloud and precipitation events were excluded using relative humidity, backscatter thresholds, and 2D Video Disdrometer observations. Results show that calculated supermicron SSA number concentrations at 105 m ranged from 0.26 to 2.93 cm −3 for surface wind speeds between 4 and 6 ms −1 . When exceeding the method's Limit of Detection, estimated production fluxes ranged from 0.20 to 1.53 cm −2 s −1 . This methodology has potential for application in various oceanic locations, likely enhancing our understanding of SSA's role in atmospheric processes and climate interactions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Deep neural operators can predict the real-time response of floating offshore structures under irregular waves

The use of neural operators in a digital twin model of an offshore floating structure holds the potential for a significant shift in the prediction of structural responses and health monitoring, offering valuable real-time control insights. In this work, we investigate the effectiveness of three neural operators, namely the deep operator network (DeepONet), the Fourier neural operator (FNO), and the Wavelet neural operator (WNO), to accurately capture the responses of a floating structure under six different sea state codes (3 − 8) based on the wave characteristics described by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). To further enhance the accuracy of the vanilla architecture of the neural operators, novel extensions, such as wavelet-DeepONet and self-adaptive WNO, are proposed in this paper. The results demonstrate that these high-precision neural operators can deliver structural responses more efficiently, up to two orders of magnitude faster than a dynamic analysis using conventional numerical solvers. Additionally, compared to gated recurrent units (GRUs), a commonly used recurrent neural network for time-series estimation, neural operators are both more accurate and efficient, especially in situations with limited data availability. Taken together, our study shows that FNO outperforms all other operators for approximating the mapping of one input functional space to the output space as well as for responses that have small bandwidth of the frequency spectrum. Conversely, DeepONet, with historical states, proves most accurate in learning the mapping of multiple input functions to the output space and capturing responses within a broad frequency spectrum.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Idaho National Laboratory’s Mobile Hot Cell Transportation: Engineering Solutions for Global Disused Sealed Radioactive Sources.

Title: Idaho National Laboratory’s Mobile Hot Cell Transportation: Engineering Solutions for Global Disused Sealed Radioactive Sources. Abstract: The Mobile Hot Cell (MHC), currently under development by Idaho National Laboratory (INL) for the Off-Site Source Recovery Project (OSRP), is designed to help international partners meet the unique challenges of end-of-life radioactive material management. The MHC will provide a critical resource for countries that require assistance securing and disposing of Disused Sealed Radioactive Sources (DSRS) and orphaned sources in challenging environments, allowing these sources to be secured against misuse and nefarious activities. The MHC is a rapidly deployable system for conditioning and preparing end-of-life radioactive sources for transportation or storage. It is designed to handle sources of up to 1,000 Ci Co-60 equivalent while maintaining full radiological and biological containment. It will be deployable within 48 hours of an alert, making it ideal for emergency situations. The MHC features an operational suite for control, support racks for electronics, pneumatics, and welding systems, and a modular robust steel structure providing radiological shielding and internal robotic support. This design allows configurations for multiple device types to be conditioned and the ability to safely manage routine issues such as leaking or damaged sources. The MHC has been designed with the transportation challenges of rapid deployment to difficult environments in mind. The system weighs approximately 150,000 pounds, with individual systems breaking down into pieces not exceeding 20,000 pounds. Components are to be transportable on standard 20ft ISO containers, with shielding shells on 20ft flat racks. It is estimated that a total of eight containers and flat racks will be required. The use of 20ft containers, as opposed to 40ft containers, minimizes the impact on less developed road infrastructures, enabling the MHC to be positioned in constrained environments such as hospital parking lots. The system’s modularity also allows for deployment using smaller equipment, such as a 10-ton boom truck or forklift, which is crucial given the potential logistical challenges in different countries. This transportation strategy, evaluated in collaboration with Utah State University, ensures the MHC can be deployed via ground, rail, sea, or air, addressing the primary concern of international transport logistics.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Climate Change and Changes in Compound Coastal-Riverine Flooding Hazard Along the U.S. Coasts

The cooccurrence of coastal and riverine flooding leads to compound events with substantial impacts on people and property in low-lying coastal areas. Climate change could increase the level of compound flood hazard through higher extreme sea levels and river flows. Here, a bivariate flood hazard assessment method is proposed to estimate compound coastal-riverine frequency under current and future climate conditions. A copula-based approach is used to estimate the joint return period (JRP) of compound floods by incorporating sea-level rise (SLR) and changes in peak river flows into the marginal distributions of flood drivers. Specifically, the changes in JRP of compound major coastal-riverine flooding defined based on simultaneous exceedances above major coastal and riverine thresholds, are explored by midcentury. Subsequently, the increase in the probability of occurrence of at least one compound major coastal-riverine flooding for a given period of time is quantified. The proposed compound flood hazard assessment is conducted at 26 paired tidal-riverine stations along the Contiguous United States coast with long-term data and defined flood thresholds. We show that the northeast Atlantic and the western part of the Gulf coasts are experiencing the highest compound major coastal-riverine flood probability under current conditions. However, future SLR scenarios show the highest frequency amplification along the southeast Atlantic coast. The impact of changes in peak river flows is found to be considerably less than that of SLR. Climate change impacts, especially SLR, may lead to more frequent compound events, which cannot be ignored for future adaptation responses in estuary regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

New approaches to an old problem: addressing spatial gaps in the World Stress Map

Abstract A well-recognized characteristic of the World Stress Map (WSM) database is the continued presence of large spatial gaps in the distribution of the data records despite the more than 40-year development history of the database. The current release has more than 30 000 high-quality (A–C) data records (often referred to as ‘stress indicators’), but while some continental areas (such as Australia) have seen a significant increase in spatial converge with the latest release, other continental regions (Africa, central Asia, most of South America) remain markedly sparse. In this contribution we (1) review the current state of the spatial distribution of stress indicators in the continental regions (above sea-level); (2) quantify the clustering of the stress indicators in the latest WSM release using the Hopkins statistic as a way to explore the current spatial distribution of the indicators and assess future WSM releases; and (3) present three approaches (joint inversion, seismic anisotropy and InSAR) that provide a way to fill in the gaps (both in the S Hmax orientation and principal stress magnitudes) in regions that lack active seismicity and where borehole drilling is cost prohibitive. These three approaches have the potential to guide procedures for improving a priori estimates of the ambient stress field in the Earth's crust and reduce the uncertainty in predicting both the magnitude and orientation of the principal tectonic stresses.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

The wave energy converter control competition (WECCCOMP): Wave energy control algorithms compared in both simulation and tank testing

The wave energy control competition established a benchmark problem which was offered as an open challenge to the wave energy system control community. The competition had two stages: In the first stage, competitors used a standard wave energy simulation platform (WEC-Sim) to evaluate their controllers while, in the second stage, competitors were invited to test their controllers in a real-time implementation on a prototype system in a wave tank. The performance function used was based on converted energy across a range of standard sea states, but also included aspects related to economic performance, such as peak/average power, peak force, etc. This paper compares simulated and experimental results and, in particular, examines if the results obtained in a linear system simulation are borne out in reality. Overall, within the scope of the device tested, the range of sea states employed, and the performance metric used, the conclusion is that high-performance WEC controllers work well in practice, with good carry-over from simulation to experimentation. However, the availability of a good WEC mathematical model is deemed to be crucial.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2025

Decomposing a Compound Flood Event in an Urban Pacific Northwest Estuary: Primary Drivers and Projections for the Future

The Duwamish River Estuary (DRE) of Washington is prone to compound flooding during atmospheric river (AR) events. The processes contributing to such flooding (coastal and fluvial) have remained opaque to municipalities that are increasingly impacted. Here, we conduct a suite of coupled atmosphere-hydrology-ocean model simulations with varying forcing combinations (tide, surge, and/or river discharge) to identify the primary drivers of compound flooding during a recent AR event. We also test year 2,100 climate forcing to project how flooding and drivers may change in the future for the same event. We identify a clear distinction between dynamics in the downstream, engineered portion of the DRE compared to the upstream, “natural” river. Downstream, tides dominate water levels but contributions from storm surge and nonlinear tide-surge interaction elevate tide-only high waters from no flooding to major flooding. Upstream, total water levels during the event are ∼6 cm higher than downstream due to an increasing influence of river discharge over surge and tides. Notably, nonlinear surge-river and tide-river interactions act to reduce upstream water levels up to 50% compared to estimates which linearly sum tides, surge, and river, likely reducing flood vulnerability. Under two future climate scenarios: one with only sea level rise (SLR) and another with SLR plus atmospheric warming, we find little change in mechanism contributions to water levels. Expanded flooding in both cases is largely due to SLR, as a ∼50% increase to river discharge under the warming scenario has no impact downstream and marginally increases (∼3 cm) water level upstream.

atmospheric river↗
DOE OSTI2023

Mission Analysis for Marine Renewable Energy to Provide Power for Marine Carbon Dioxide Removal

The mission of this project was to provide a preliminary feasibility assessment of powering different marine carbon dioxide removal (mCDR), marine carbon capture, and marine carbon sequestration strategies with marine energy. In this report, carbon capture refers to methods that can separate or capture carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) from the air or ocean; carbon sequestration refers to methods that store CO 2 obtained by capture methods out of the atmosphere for long periods of time; and carbon dioxide removal (CDR) refers to methods that do both. The project found that mCDR powered by marine energy and offshore wind energy available in the United States could meet global CDR scales needed by 2040 and 2050 to limit warming to 1.5 degrees C by 2100. Note that this preliminary estimate assumes that it is possible to harvest all the marine and offshore wind resources available in the United States with existing technology options, and it does not account for the power needed for monitoring these methods, as these power needs are not yet well defined and require further research. Additionally, these CDR scales will still require emissions reductions.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2025

Observations of Subduction, Downward Heat Flux and Dense Filament Collapse in the Northern Gulf of Mexico

Submesoscale processes are important contributors to the global heat budget and generally support upward heat transport through restratification. However, in salinity‐stratified regions, such as the northern Gulf of Mexico with its influx of freshwater from the Mississippi‐Atchafalaya river system, temperature can act like a passive tracer and submesoscale processes can contribute to downward heat transport. Oceanic heat content is a factor in many environmental risks the region faces, for example, hurricane intensification, and marine heatwaves. During the 2022 field campaign of the Submesoscales Under Near‐Resonant Inertial Shear Experiment, a sampling plan was developed to study such submesoscale processes in high resolution. Over 31 hr, four assets (two research ships and two remotely controlled boats) drove in parallel across a dense filament, capturing its evolution in time and space. The observations show that surface waters, warmed by daytime solar radiation, were subducted and that the associated overturning circulation transported heat below the surface layer where it was later irreversibly mixed away. The estimated downward heat flux was as strong as the concurrent net air‐sea heat flux into the ocean. The filament was then observed to rapidly collapse which we attribute to boundary layer turbulence and the breakdown of geostrophic balance. The collapsing fronts display behaviors indicative of gravity currents. These observations highlight how in salinity‐stratified regions, frontal dynamics can be associated with downward heat flux and how the submesoscale can play an important role in the oceanic heat budget.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Equation‐Free Surrogate Modeling of Geophysical Flows at the Intersection of Machine Learning and Data Assimilation

Abstract There is a growing interest in developing data‐driven reduced‐order models for atmospheric and oceanic flows that are trained on data obtained either from high‐resolution simulations or satellite observations. The data‐driven models are non‐intrusive in nature and offer significant computational savings compared to large‐scale numerical models. These low‐dimensional models can be utilized to reduce the computational burden of generating forecasts and estimating model uncertainty without losing the key information needed for data assimilation (DA) to produce accurate state estimates. This paper aims at exploring an equation‐free surrogate modeling approach at the intersection of machine learning and DA in Earth system modeling. With this objective, we introduce an end‐to‐end non‐intrusive reduced‐order modeling (NIROM) framework equipped with contributions in modal decomposition, time series prediction, optimal sensor placement, and sequential DA. Specifically, we use proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) to identify the dominant structures of the flow, and a long short‐term memory network to model the dynamics of the POD modes. The NIROM is integrated within the deterministic ensemble Kalman filter (DEnKF) to incorporate sparse and noisy observations at optimal sensor locations obtained through QR pivoting. The feasibility and the benefit of the proposed framework are demonstrated for the NOAA Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature (SST) V2 data set. Our results indicate that the NIROM is stable for long‐term forecasting and can model dynamics of SST with a reasonable level of accuracy. Furthermore, the prediction accuracy of the NIROM gets improved by almost one order of magnitude by the DEnKF algorithm.

Pawar, Suraj↗
DOE OSTI2020

Annual Performance of the Second-Generation Variable-Geometry Oscillating Surge Wave Energy Converter

Recent studies in wave energy have highlighted the need for a structured innovation approach in wave energy converter (WEC) design because cost-of-energy estimates have remained high. One specific innovation being investigated by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory is WEC geometry control, which uses control surfaces in combination with an oscillating surge WEC (OSWEC) to increase device availability and power generation while limiting structural costs. This study performs the first analysis of annual performance for a novel OSWEC with geometry control to understand how the geometry control affects availability, annual power generation, and structural loadings like the power-take-off (PTO) torque or surge foundation force. Device hydrodynamic coefficients are calculated using linear potential theory for six geometry configurations. A nonideal PTO system is assumed and quadratic viscous damping losses are considered. Annual performance is evaluated and compared for three U.S. wave energy sites. The WEC geometry and PTO system are controlled on a sea-state basis to optimize for power capture while remaining under limits set on motion amplitude and structural loads. Results indicate that geometry control can increase availability up to 25 days in an average year depending on design limits, increase average power generation, and significantly reduce peak structural loads.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗