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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Photon phase-space dynamics in a plasma wakefield accelerator

Frequency up-shifting of laser light in a beam-driven plasma wakefield has the potential to provide high-intensity sources of short wavelength radiation. Simulations have demonstrated that a laser pulse can undergo large frequency shifts, limited only by the drive beam energy, when the plasma density is tailored to match the accelerating phase of the wake to the group velocity of the pulse. Here, we study the dynamical evolution of photons in the 1D1P phase-space vicinity of the plasma wake-phase matching condition. Numerical calculations using a photon kinetic model are validated by direct comparison with 1D and quasi-3D particle-in-cell simulations. These calculations form the basis of a linear theory of the photon dynamics which reveals several important results, including scalings for the properties of the witness pulse and a self-similar solution for the photon phase-space dynamics. One prediction of the analytic theory is that the pulse can be compressed indefinitely, though the amount of compression would ultimately be limited by practical constraints. These results suggest that photon acceleration can provide a novel source of sub-femtosecond, short wavelength radiation.

XUV generation↗
DOE OSTI2023

Convergence of halo statistics: code comparison between rockstar and compaso using scale-free simulations

ABSTRACT In this study, we perform a halo-finder code comparison between rockstar and compaso. Based on our previous analysis aiming at quantifying resolution of N-body simulations by exploiting large (up to N = 40963) simulations of scale-free cosmologies run using abacus, we focus on convergence of the halo mass function, two-point correlation function, and mean radial pairwise velocities of halo centres selected with the aforementioned two algorithms. We establish convergence, for both rockstar and compaso, of mass functions at the 1 per cent precision level and of the mean pairwise velocities (and also two-point correlation function) at the 2 per cent level. At small scales and masses, we find that rockstar exhibits greater self-similarity. We also highlight the role played by the merger-tree post-processing of compaso haloes on their convergence. Finally, we give resolution limits expressed as a minimum particle number per halo in a form that can be directly extrapolated to Lambda cold dark matter.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2026

Quantum critical collapse abhors a naked singularity

Classical critical collapse yields naked singularities from smooth initial data, challenging cosmic censorship, and shaping the spectrum of primordial black holes. We show that one-loop vacuum polarization near the threshold qualitatively changes this outcome by dressing the singularity with a horizon within a controlled semiclassical regime. In analytically tractable Einstein-scalar critical spacetimes, a one-loop $s$-wave treatment linearized around self-similar backgrounds shows that regularity uniquely selects an asymptotically Minkowskian, vacuum-polarization state. Its renormalized stress tensor carries a universal quantum growing mode that competes with the classical unstable mode, shifts the critical point, and generates a trapped surface along with a finite mass gap at the new threshold, thereby enforcing horizon formation even under arbitrary fine-tuning. In primordial collapse, the threshold shift enters exponentially into the formation fraction, while the mass gap truncates the low-mass tail, suggesting potentially important consequences for the predicted mass spectrum. Furthermore, these results provide a self-consistent semiclassical treatment of critical collapse and yield sharp predictions within the one-loop, near-critical, linearized regime.

Anomalies↗
DOE OSTI2026

Propagation of partially spatially coherent laser beams in instantaneous Kerr media

The propagation of intense, partially spatially coherent laser beams in a medium with instantaneous third-order susceptibility is studied analytically and numerically. For sufficiently high power relative to that required for nonlinear self-focusing, the propagation initially proceeds in two stages. In the first stage, spatial coherence builds up, and in the second stage, the number of speckles reduces. Once the degree of coherence is sufficiently high, whole-beam self-focusing occurs. The beam power is mostly confined within the initial spot radius. Two analytical approaches for describing the evolution of the beam are presented. The method of moments leads to an analytical solution for the rms spot radius that is in excellent agreement with simulations. This method does not require any knowledge of the field statistics beyond the initial conditions and provides no information about the evolution of the individual speckles. The other approach employs a self-similar solution for the second-order coherence function of the field and assumes that the fourth-order coherence function is factorizable and obeys complex circular Gaussian random statistics. The latter method also leads to an analytical expression for the spot radius, but its predictions for the qualitative evolution of the speckles disagree with wave-optics simulations.

lasers↗
DOE OSTI2026

Evaluating the Limits of QAOA Parameter Transfer at High-Rounds on Sparse Ising Models With Geometrically Local Cubic Terms

The emergent practical applicability of the Quantum Approximate Optimization Algorithm (QAOA) for approximate combinatorial optimization is a subject of considerable interest. One of the primary limitations of QAOA is the task of finding a set of good parameters, which is usually done using a variational optimization loop. Parameter transfer, or parameter concentration, is a phenomenon where QAOA angles trained on problem instances that are self-similar tend to perform well for other problem instances from that similar class. This suggests a potentially highly efficient and scalable non-variational learning method for QAOA angle finding. In this work, we systematically study QAOA parameter transferability from small problem sizes (16 and 27 decision variables) onto large problem instances (up to 156 qubits) for heavy-hex graph Ising models with geometrically local higher order terms using the Julia based QAOA simulation tool \texttt{JuliQAOA} to perform classical angle finding for up to $49$ QAOA layers ($p$). Parameter transfer of the fixed angles is validated using a combination of full statevector, Projected Entangled Pair States (PEPS), Matrix Product State (MPS), and LOWESA numerical simulations. We find that the QAOA parameter transfer from single instances applied to other (unseen) problem instances does not in general provide monotonically improving performance as a function of $p$ - there are many cases where the performance temporarily decreases as a function of $p$ - but despite this the transferred angles have a general trend of improved expectation value as the QAOA depth increases, in many cases converging close to the true ground-state energy of the $100+$ qubit instances. We also sample the hardware-compatible Ising models using the ensemble of transfer-learned QAOA parameters on several superconducting qubit IBM Quantum processors with 127, 133, and 156 qubits. We find continuous solution quality improvement of the hardware-compatible QAOA circuits run on the IBM NISQ processors up to $p=5$ on \texttt{ibm\_fez}, up to $p=9$ on \texttt{ibm\_torino}, and up to $p=10$ on \texttt{ibm\_pittsburgh}.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2024

Phase-space entropy cascade and irreversibility of stochastic heating in nearly collisionless plasma turbulence

We consider a nearly collisionless plasma consisting of a species of “test particles” in one spatial and one velocity dimension, stirred by an externally imposed stochastic electric field—a kinetic analog of the Kraichnan model of passive advection. The mean effect on the particle distribution function is turbulent diffusion in velocity space—known as stochastic heating. Accompanying this heating is the generation of fine-scale structure in the distribution function, which we characterize with the collisionless (Casimir) invariant C 2 ∝ ∫ ∫ d x d v 〈 f 2 〉 —a quantity that here plays the role of (negative) entropy of the distribution function. We find that C 2 is transferred from large scales to small scales in both position and velocity space via a phase-space cascade enabled by both particle streaming and nonlinear interactions between particles and the stochastic electric field. We compute the steady-state fluxes and spectrum of C 2 in Fourier space, with k and s denoting spatial and velocity wave numbers, respectively. In our model, the nonlinearity in the evolution equation for the spectrum turns into a fractional Laplacian operator in k space, leading to anomalous diffusion. Whereas even the linear phase mixing alone would lead to a constant flux of C 2 to high s (towards the collisional dissipation range) at every k , the nonlinearity accelerates this cascade by intertwining velocity and position space so that the flux of C 2 is to both high k and high s simultaneously. Integrating over velocity (spatial) wave numbers, the k -space ( s -space) flux of C 2 is constant down to a dissipation length (velocity) scale that tends to zero as the collision frequency does, even though the rate of collisional dissipation remains finite. The resulting spectrum in the inertial range is a self-similar function in the ( k , s ) plane, with power-law asymptotics at large k and s . Our model is fully analytically solvable, but the asymptotic scalings of the spectrum can also be found via a simple phenomenological theory whose key assumption is that the cascade is governed by a “critical balance” in phase space between the linear and nonlinear timescales. We argue that stochastic heating is made irreversible by this entropy cascade and that, while collisional dissipation accessed via phase mixing occurs only at small spatial scales rather than at every scale as it would in a linear system, the cascade makes phase mixing even more effective overall in the nonlinear regime than in the linear one. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Heat transfer and transport property contrast effects on the compressible Rayleigh-Taylor instability

In extreme environments, the Rayleigh-Taylor instability (RTI) may occur under large variations in density and temperature and with fluid transport properties strongly dependent on temperature. Direct numerical simulations of the 3D fully compressible RTI are conducted, examining the idealized configuration of a hotter, less dense fluid pushing against a colder, denser fluid. Various temperature ratios and transport property configurations are explored to examine how heat conduction, large variations in transport properties, and sudden changes in transport properties can affect the evolution of the mixing layer. Nonuniform fluid expansion and contraction induced by heat transfer can significantly affect local density differences and overall instability growth, causing profile asymmetries about the initial interface for flow and mixing statistics. The departures from classical self-similar development of the instability along with misalignment between regions of mixing and regions of most intense turbulent activity caused by both heat transfer and transport property contrasts are examined. After sudden changes in fluid transport properties, which may occur as a result of rapid heating (e.g., in inertial confinement fusion), the flow quickly responds and begins to relax towards quasi-self-similar late-time evolution. For many dynamical quantities such as vorticity and dissipation, this late-time evolution resembles that of the configuration that already started with the final transport property magnitudes, suggesting that these quantities depend only on the transport properties and not on past flow history, provided that the density field distributions for the flows remain similar. On the other hand, the mixing evolution after the transport property change is unique, implying that both property magnitudes and previous history are impactful on the mixing. In conclusion, these simulations demonstrate how various temperature-related effects are extremely important to consider in compressible RTI flows with large temperature variations.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Hindered segmental dynamics in associative protein hydrogels studied by neutron spin-echo spectroscopy

Transient binding between associating macromolecules can cause qualitative changes to chain dynamics, including modes of conformational relaxation and diffusion, through tethering effects imparted by long-range connectivity. Here, in this work, the role of binding on short-time segmental dynamics in associative polymer gels is investigated by neutron spin-echo (NSE) measurements on a class of model artificial coiled-coil proteins with a systematically varied architecture, probing timescales of 0.1–130 ns, and length scales close to the molecular radius of gyration. The results illustrate effects of transient cross-linking on chain dynamics on different timescales, manifested in changes in segmental relaxation behavior with variations in strand length, chain concentration, and sticker distribution (endblock- vs midblock-functionalized). In all gels, a short-time cooperative diffusion mode is seen over all wave vectors, analogous to a semidilute solution, with no transitions seen at any known structural length scale. However, the diffusion coefficients are found to decrease with increasing junction density across all gels, with the strand length and number of stickers per chain in each gel appearing to play a relatively minor role. The slowing of cooperative diffusion with junction density contrasts with classical predictions of a greater restoring force for fluctuation dissipation due to the increased elasticity, suggesting additional effects of the coiled-coil junctions such as an enhancement in local viscosity that slows dynamics. Notably, the relaxation rates for all gels can be rescaled by the interjunction spacing inferred from small-angle neutron scattering, where they collapse onto a master curve suggestive of self-similar dynamics even in networks with different strand lengths and chain architectures. On long timescales (but shorter than the junction exchange time), a slowing of network relaxation is observed, resulting in a nondecaying plateau in the spin-echo amplitude attributed to a freezing of chain dynamics due to tethering. A characteristic length scale corresponding to the extent of dynamic fluctuations is estimated for each gel, which appears to be smaller than the interjunction spacing but similar to the correlation blob size of the overlapping strands. The results indicate an important role of transient binding on molecular-scale dynamics in associative polymer gels, even on timescales shorter than the junction exchange time, in addition to its effects on long-range self-diffusion previously observed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Global cascade of kinetic energy in the ocean and the atmospheric imprint

Here, we present an estimate for the ocean's global scale transfer of kinetic energy (KE), across scales from 10 to 40,000 km. Oceanic KE transfer between gyre scales and mesoscales is induced by the atmosphere’s Hadley, Ferrel, and polar cells, and the intertropical convergence zone induces an intense downscale KE transfer. Upscale transfer peaks at 300 gigawatts across mesoscales of 120 km in size, roughly one-third the energy input by winds into the oceanic general circulation. Nearly three quarters of this “cascade” occurs south of 15°S and penetrates almost the entire water column. The mesoscale cascade has a self-similar seasonal cycle with characteristic lag time of ≈27 days per octave of length scales; transfer across 50 km peaks in spring, while transfer across 500 km peaks in summer. KE of those mesoscales follows the same cycle but peaks ≈40 days after the peak cascade, suggesting that energy transferred across a scale is primarily deposited at a scale four times larger.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Explicit Monotone Stable Super-Time-stepping Methods for Finite Time Singularities

We explore a novel way to numerically resolve the scaling behavior of finite-time singularities in solutions of nonlinear parabolic PDEs. The Runge–Kutta–Legendre (RKL) and Runge–Kutta–Gegenbauer (RKG) super-time-stepping methods were originally developed for nonlinear complex physics problems with diffusion. These are multistage single step second-order, forward-in-time methods with no implicit solves. The advantage is that the time-step size for stability scales with stage number 𝑠 as $\mathcal{O}$⁡(𝑠 2 ). Many interesting nonlinear PDEs have finite-time singularities, and the presence of diffusion often limits one to using implicit or semi-implicit time-step methods for stability constraints. Finite-time singularities are particularly challenging due to the large range of scales that one desires to resolve, often with adaptive spatial grids and adaptive time steps. Here, in this study, we show two examples of nonlinear PDEs for which the self-similar singularity structure has time and space scales that are resolvable using the RKL and RKG methods, without forcing even smaller time steps. Compared to commonly used implicit numerical methods, we achieve a significantly smaller run time while maintaining comparable accuracy. We also prove numerical monotonicity for both the RKL and RKG methods under their linear stability conditions for the constant coefficient heat equation, in the case of infinite domain and periodic boundary condition, leading to a theoretical guarantee of the superiority of the RKL and RKG methods over traditional super-time-stepping methods, such as the Runge-Kutta-Chebyshev and the orthogonal Runge-Kutta-Chebyshev methods. Code can be found at https://github.com/ZT220501/SRK-Singularity.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

High-speed fiber-coupled terahertz time-domain spectroscopy system using a bias-free plasmonic source

We demonstrate a high-speed fiber-coupled terahertz time-domain spectroscopy (THz-TDS) system using a bias-free plasmonic terahertz source. The system is powered by a compact, low-power femtosecond fiber laser oscillator that drives a dual-branch fiber amplifier to pump and probe a plasmonic terahertz source and detector, respectively. A polarization-maintaining, fiber-coupled optical delay line is employed to precisely control the temporal offset between the pump and probe beams through a compact, robust platform. Operating in the self-similar amplification regime, the fiber amplifiers are engineered to mitigate nonlinear pulse distortion and dispersion while delivering robust, high-energy pulses at a 1560-nm wavelength, with an output power exceeding 326 mW. In reflection mode, the THz-TDS system achieves a peak dynamic range of 81 dB and a bandwidth greater than 3.5 THz at a scan rate of 3.75 Hz. The utility of the system for rapid sensing is further demonstrated by quantifying the porosity and density of pharmaceutical tablets through measurements of their physical thickness and effective refractive index.

Jiang, Xinghe [University of California, Los Angel↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Scaling Analysis of Post-Detonation Mixing With Detailed Chemical Kinetics

This report documents a scaling study of hemispherical pentaerythritol tetranitrate explosives detonated in ambient air. The focus is on the mixing layer and evolution of the chemical species. The HyBurn code developed at the University of Florida is used to simulate center initiated 12, 38, 120, and 1200 mm diameter charges. The results show blast structures commonly found in the literature. Azimuthal averaging is used to radially average the flow variables to get mean values. The charges exhibit self-similar behavior at early times in a primarily gas dynamic regime, but discrepancies between the scales form at later times due to the finite rate chemistry. The turbulent mixing layer is calculated and used to define a region to conditionally average by mixture fraction. The results of the conditional averages imply a transition from a kinetic-limited regime to a mixing-limited regime with increasing scale. The scaling of the total heat release rate confirms an early time gas dynamic regime, and a later time regime where mixing and chemistry becomes impactful.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Experimental Measurements of Soot and Soot Precursors of Sustainable Aviation Fuels

Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAFs) are promising for decarbonizing the challenging-to-electrify aerospace sector and reducing yearly greenhouse gas emissions by thousands of tons. Developing predictive detailed chemical kinetic models for SAF (and traditional) fuel mixtures necessitates a robust experimental database to elucidate the intricate pyrolysis and oxidation chemistry of SAF fuel blend components. Two critical components of SAF surrogate mixtures are iso-dodecane isomers and trans-decalin. This report characterizes the structure of three slightly sooting, laminar, non-premixed, nitrogen-diluted Planar Mixing Layer Flames (PMLFs) fueled by either pure ethylene, ethylene doped with 1500ppm of either 2,2,4,6,6-pentamethyl-heptane or trans-decalin. The flames have the same stoichiometric mixture fraction and total mole fraction of fuels in the fuel stream (X F,F = X C2H4,F + X Dopant,F = 0.26), resulting in approximately the same maximum temperature (T max ≈ 1800 K) to highlight the effect of doping on soot and its gaseous precursors. The PMLF is unconfined and established between adjacent planar jets of the fuel and oxidizer streams surrounded by annular shielding nitrogen. The flow is stabilized by exhausting the hot buoyant flame products through a slot in a downstream plate onto which the cold flow impinges. Importantly, any horizontal cross-section of the PMLF has a self-similar thermochemical structure of a reactive boundary layer that grows at increasing Height Above the Burner (HAB). Therefore, the horizontal cross-sections of a PMLF can be modeled as a One-Dimensional Counterflow Flame (1D-CF) with very low strain rates which are unachievable in traditional CFs and yield a structure that is several millimeters thick. In brief, the PMLF is ideal for performing spatially resolved measurements with minimal effects of the sampling-induced perturbations, to develop and validate detailed chemical kinetic models on time scales of a few tens of milliseconds that are relevant in aviation applications. The horizontal profiles of C0-C18 gaseous species at HAB = 50 mm and soot volume fraction at 25 and 50 mm are measured using capillary sampling followed by GC-MS analyses and Laser Induced Emission Spectroscopy (LIES), respectively. Additionally, the Elastic Laser Light Scattering (E-LLS) coefficient is measured at HAB = 50 mm and 25 mm to determine the strain rates of the 1D-CFs equivalent to the characterized PMLF horizontal cross sections and the profile of the E-LLS equivalent diameter of soot. The comparison of the results in the base PMLF fueled only by ethylene with those in either doped PMLF in which 1500 ppm of ethylene are replaced with 2,2,4,6,6-pentamethyl-heptane or trans-decalin, reveals that the doping increases the mole fraction of several Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) at both HABs by a factor of approximately 2.5, and the soot volume fraction at both HABs by factors of ~1.5 for 2,2,4,6,6-pentamethyl-heptane and ~1.25 for trans-decalin doping, respectively. Conversely, doping causes a near doubling of the soot equivalent diameter only at HAB = 50 mm, without significant effects at 25 mm. The experimental results partially validate the tested state-of-the-art detailed chemical kinetic model and also point toward the further improvement of its predictive capabilities.

10 SYNTHETIC FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Generative Model for Realistic Galaxy Cluster X-Ray Morphologies

Abstract The X-ray morphologies of clusters of galaxies display significant variations, reflecting their dynamical histories and the nonlinear dependence of X-ray emissivity on the density of the intracluster gas. Qualitative and quantitative assessments of X-ray morphology have long been considered a proxy for determining whether clusters are dynamically active or “relaxed.” Conversely, the use of circularly or elliptically symmetric models for cluster emission can be complicated by the variety of complex features realized in nature, spanning scales from megaparsecs down to the resolution limit of current X-ray observatories. In this work, we use mock X-ray images from simulated clusters from The Three Hundred project to define a basis set of cluster image features. We take advantage of the clusters’ approximate self-similarity to minimize the differences between images before encoding the remaining diversity through a distribution of high-order polynomial coefficients. Principal component analysis then provides an orthogonal basis for this distribution, corresponding to natural perturbations from an average model. This representation allows novel, realistically complex X-ray cluster images to be easily generated, and we provide code to do so. The approach provides a simple way to generate training data for cluster image analysis algorithms and could be straightforwardly adapted to generate clusters displaying specific types of features or selected by physical characteristics available in the original simulations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Constraints on Nonthermal Pressure at Galaxy Cluster Outskirts from a Joint SPT and XMM-Newton Analysis

We present joint South Pole Telescope and XMM-Newton observations of eight massive galaxy clusters (0.8–2 × 10$^{15}$ M$_{⊙}$) spanning a redshift range of 0.16–0.35. Employing a novel Sunyaev–Zel’dovich + X-ray fitting technique, we effectively constrain the thermodynamic properties of these clusters out to the virial radius. The resulting best-fit electron density, deprojected temperature, and deprojected pressure profiles are in good agreement with previous observations of massive clusters. For the majority of the cluster sample (five out of eight clusters), the entropy profiles exhibit a self-similar behavior near the virial radius. We further derive hydrostatic mass, gas mass, and gas fraction profiles for all clusters up to the virial radius. Comparing the enclosed gas fraction profiles with the universal gas fraction profile, we obtain nonthermal pressure fraction profiles for our cluster sample at >0.5R$_{500}$, demonstrating a steeper increase between R$_{500}$ and R$_{200}$ that is consistent with the hydrodynamical simulations. Our analysis yields nonthermal pressure fraction ranges of 8%–28% (median: 15% ± 11%) at R$_{500}$ and 21%–35% (median: 27% ± 12%) at R$_{200}$. Notably, weak-lensing mass measurements are available for only four clusters in our sample, and our recovered total cluster masses, after accounting for nonthermal pressure, are consistent with these measurements.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

High-fidelity Experiments of Turbulent Buoyant Jets from Simultaneous Particle Image Velocimetry and Laser Induced Fluorescence

Accurate models of turbulent buoyant flows are essential for the design of nuclear reactors thermal hydraulics and passive safety systems. However, available models fail to fully capture the physics of turbulent mixing when buoyancy becomes predominant with respect to momentum. Therefore, high-fidelity experiments of well-controlled fundamental flows are needed to develop and validate more accurate models. We performed experiments of positive and negative turbulent buoyant jets, both in uniform and stratified environments, with the aim of understanding the thermal hydraulics of turbulent mixing with variable density and providing high-fidelity data for the development and validation of turbulence models. Non-intrusive, simultaneous Particle Image Velocimetry and Laser Induced Fluorescence measurements were carried out to acquire instantaneous velocity and concentration fields on a vertical section parallel to the axis of a jet in the self-similar region. The Refractive Index Matching method was applied to measure high-resolution buoyant jets with up to 8.6% density difference. These data are free of the typical errors that characterize optical measurements of buoyancy driven flows (e.g., natural and mixed convection) where the refractive index of the fluid is inhomogeneous throughout the measurement domain. Turbulent statistics and entrainment of buoyant jets in uniform and stratified environments are presented. These data are compared with non-buoyant jets in uniform environment, as a reference to investigate the effects of buoyancy and stratification on turbulent mixing. The results will be used for the assessment of current turbulence models and as basis for the development of a new one that captures turbulent mixing.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

A riming‐dependent parameterization of scattering by snowflakes using the self‐similar Rayleigh–Gans approximation

Abstract Riming is a key process of precipitation formation in ice‐containing clouds, but quantifying riming from observations is challenging, limiting our ability to evaluate the riming process in numerical weather models. One challenge for radar observations is that riming changes both the physical properties (mass, area cross‐section) and scattering properties of ice particles. These changes need to be implemented consistently as a function of riming in radar forward operators, which are required for retrievals and model evaluation in observation space. In this study, mass–size, cross‐section area–size, and backscattering cross‐section relations are developed as a function of the normalized rime mass for aggregates composed of various monomer types (columns, dendrites, needles, plates, and rosettes). The proposed framework allows us to simulate scattering properties of aggregated ice particles consistently as a function of riming in retrievals and radar forward operators. The parameterizations are developed from a large data set of simulated rimed aggregates of different sizes and monomer crystal types. The backscattering cross‐section parameterization (the “riming‐dependent parameterization”) is evaluated for radar frequencies of 35.6 and 94.0 GHz and is based on the Self‐Similar Rayleigh–Gans approximation (SSRGA), which is increasingly used to calculate microwave scattering of ice crystals and snowflakes. Compared with parameterizations from the literature that do not consider riming, the riming‐dependent parameterization leads to significantly smaller biases in terms of backscattering cross‐section. When using the particle masses and scattering properties of the individual particles simulated by the aggregation and riming model as a reference, the bias of our parameterization is below 1 dB when integrating over an exponential particle size distribution with sizes from 0.1–10 mm.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Seeing through noise in power laws

Despite widespread claims of power laws across the natural and social sciences, evidence in data is often equivocal. Modern data and statistical methods reject even classic power laws such as Pareto’s law of wealth and the Gutenberg–Richter law for earthquake magnitudes. We show that the maximum-likelihood estimators and Kolmogorov–Smirnov (K-S) statistics in widespread use are unexpectedly sensitive to ubiquitous errors in data such as measurement noise, quantization noise, heaping and censorship of small values. This sensitivity causes spurious rejection of power laws and biases parameter estimates even in arbitrarily large samples, which explains inconsistencies between theory and data. We show that logarithmic binning by powers of λ > 1 attenuates these errors in a manner analogous to noise averaging in normal statistics and that λ thereby tunes a trade-off between accuracy and precision in estimation. Binning also removes potentially misleading within-scale information while preserving information about the shape of a distribution over powers of λ, and we show that some amount of binning can improve sensitivity and specificity of K-S tests without any cost, while more extreme binning tunes a trade-off between sensitivity and specificity. We therefore advocate logarithmic binning as a simple essential step in power-law inference.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗