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The meeting was arranged to discuss atmospheric electricity and its relationship to severe storms, the feasibility of developing a set of instruments for either a Space Shuttle or an unmanned satellite, and the scientific rationale which would warrant further in-depth assessment, involvement and development of supporting activities by NASA.
Implementation by NASA of the South Pacific severe storm detection and warning system project for the Fiji Meteorological Service (FMS) in Nadi, Fiji, is discussed. A description of the need and use of the system by the FMS, of data reception, of interactive computer techniques, of training, and of the benefits to be derived from implementation of the system is given. The project allows precise tracking of all South Pacific tropical cyclones with frequent high-resolution reception of both the Japanese GMS and the U.S. GOES-West visible and IR cloud images.
In August 1986, a South Pacific Severe Storm Detection and Warning System (SPSSD/WS) was installed by NASA at the Fiji Meteorological Service (FMS) in Nadi, Fiji. The system consists of a 6.1 meter parabolic dish antenna, a satellite ground station, and computer and image processing facilities. The system allows tracking of all South Pacific tropical cyclones with real-time, high resolution reception of visible and infrared cloud images from both the Japanese Geostationary Meteorological Satellite (GMS) and the U.S. Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-WEST). Training was also provided in system usage and operations. In December 1986, the U.S. AID Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance (OFDA) commissioned an evaluation of the SPSSD/WS. The system was recognized as one of the most advanced of its kind in the Pacific Basin. It has functioned successfully since installation with only minor interruptions, and it has become the prime tool in supporting the FMS' role as the regional tropical cyclone warning center for the Southwest Pacific. However, it was noted that there are needed enhancements to the system.
The Mesoscale Atmospheric Processes Research Program is a program of integrated studies which are to achieve an improved understanding of the basic behavior of the atmosphere through the use of remotely sensed data and space technology. The program consist of four elements: (1) special observations and analysis of mesoscale systems; (20 the development of quanitative algorithms to use remotely sensed observations; (3) the development of new observing systems; and (4) numerical modeling. The Severe Storms Branch objectives are the improvement of the understanding, diagnosis, and prediction of a wide range of atmospheric storms, which includes severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, flash floods, tropical cyclones, and winter snowstorms. The research often shed light upon various aspects of local weather, such as fog, sea breezes, air pollution, showers, and other products of nonsevere cumulus cloud clusters. The part of the program devoted to boundary layer processes, gust front interactions, and soil moisture detection from satellites gives insights into storm growth and behavior.
Horizontal wind components, potential temperature, and mixing ratio fields associated with a severe storm environment in the south central U.S. were analyzed from synoptic upper air observations with a nonhomogeneous, anisotropic weighting function. Each data field was filtered with variational optimization analysis techniques. Variational optimization analysis was also performed on the vertical motion field and was used to produce advective forecasts of the potential temperature and mixing ratio fields. Results show that the dry intrusion is characterized by warm air, the advection of which produces a well-defined upward motion pattern. A corresponding downward motion pattern comprising a deep vertical circulation in the warm air sector of the low pressure system was detected. The axes alignment of maximum dry and warm advection with the axis of the tornado-producing squall line also resulted.
Horizontal wind components, potential temperature, and mixing ratio fields associated with a severe storm environment in the south central United States were objectively analyzed from synoptic upper air observations with a nonhomogeneous anisotropic weighting function. The particular case study discussed here is the tornado producting squall line which moved through eastern Oklahoma 26 May 1973. The synoptic situation which preceded squall line development was cyclogenesis and frontogenesis in the lee-of-mountain trough, which produced a well-defined surface dry line (or dew point front) and a pronounced mid-level dry air intrusion. It is shown that the intrusion was also characterized by warm air, with a lapse rate approaching the dry adiabatic.
Extreme lightning flash rates are proving to be an early indicator of intensifying storms capable of producing tornadoes, damaging winds and hail. Most of this lightning is in the cloud, where the naked eye can not see it. Recent global observations of thunderstorms from space indicate that giant electrical storms (supercells and convective complexes) with flash rates on the order of 1 flash per second are most common over the land masses of the America sub-tropics and equatorial Congo Basin. Within the United States, the average tornado warning lead time on a national basis is about 11 min. The real-time observation of extreme flash rates and the rapid increase in the in-cloud flash rate, signalling the intensification of the storm updraft, may provide as much as a 50% increase in severe storm warning lead time.
Four tasks related to the signal processing aspects of the severe-storms Doppler lidar program are discussed. The development of algorithms for windfield retrieval from Doppler lidar measurements are discussed. Signal processor installation on a CV-990 aircraft is discussed.
Analyses are performed of the meso beta-scale (20-200 km wavelengths and several hours to one-day periods) severe storm kinetic energy balance on the fifth day of the AVE SESAME campaign of May 1979. A 24-hr interval covering the antecedent, active and post-convective outbreak activity over Oklahoma are considered. Use is made of the kinetic energy budget equation (KEBE) for a finite volume in an isobaric coordinate system. Rawindsonde data with 75 km resolution were treated. The KEBE model covered changes in kinetic energy due to the cross contour flows, horizontal and vertical components of flux divergence, and volumic mass changes on synoptic and subsynoptic scales. The greatest variability was concentrated above 400 mb height and over the most intense storm activity. Energy was generated at the highest rates in divergence and decreased the most in convection. The meso beta-scale lacked sufficient resolution for analyzing mesoscale activity.
The role of evapotranspiration in a prestorm environment and the way in which a local severe storm initiates under the influence of spatial variations of soil moisture and vegetation coverage are examined. The Goddard Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (Kaplan et al., 1982) is used to study the case of an isolated but intense convective storm associated with the Grand Island, Nebraska, tornado on June 3-4, 1980. It is found that spatial variations of vegetation and soil moisture increase the surface temperature gradient, enhance the thermally direct ageostrophic circulation, intensify the surface pressure gradient, and enhance the geostrophic low-level southerly flow.
A system of differential equations is integrated numerically in space and time over several different matrices in an effort to simulate the atmospheric wave structures which organize severe local storms. Preliminary results with case studies indicate that dynamical fields produced by the numerical simulations can be translated into very fine scale space and time zones where severe storm forecast indices can be developed. These fine scale indices are now available in real-time when run on Langley's STAR 100 computer system.
The recommended algorithm for the correction of higher order data errors in severe storms doppler lidar signal processing is discussed.
The method and results of the analysis of photographic records of the summit areas of severe storms obtained from a U-2 aircraft flying at an altitude of 65,000 ft. over Oklahoma are described. Comparison of the heights of storm cells protruding through the main anvil cirrus deck of a squall line with the predictions of simple "parcel" theory suggests the latter may be used to indicate the maximum development attainable (but not necessarily attained) by a squall line on a given day. It is suggested that temperatures approaching -1OO°C. may occur in the domes of giant quasi-steady storm cells reaching altitudes of 55,000 - 60,000 ft. bounded by a thin shell of extremely stable air, which is not inconsistent with the rather smooth texture of dome summits sometimes shown by the U-2 photographs.
This paper describes a successful research and operational collaboration between NASA scientists and NWS forecasters to improve severe stor m warnings using real-time data from a regional VHF total lightning mapping array (LMA). Key objectives of our research using LMA data ar e: a) Identification of intensifying and weakening storms using the time rate-of-change of total flash rate; b) Improved severe storm poten tial situational awareness; c) Evaluation of the potential of total f lash rate trend to improve severe storm probability of detection (POD ) and lead time; and d) Validation of mesoscale model forecasts of th understorm initiation. The LMA data are distributed for ingest and di splay in the WFO AWIPS decision support system, and archived at each WFO for case studies, event playbacks, and assessments using the NWS Warning Event Simulator. The Huntsville WFO has upgraded severe thund erstorm warnings to verified tornado warnings and avoided a false ala rm on a severe storm through the added information on storm growth, intensification, and decay that can be deduced from the magnitude and temporal trend of total flash rates. We present detailed case studies of the observed relationships between lightning activity and tornadi c storm development as determined by radar reflectivity and velocity fields, and thunderstorms forecast by the Weather Research and Foreca st (WRF) model. From these collaborative studies, forecasters can eva luate the added value of total lightning data within the forecast and warning decision-making process (http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/sport) .
Successful ground truth support of U-2 overflights was been accomplished. Data have been reduced for 4 June 1984 and some of the results have been integrated into some of MSFC's efforts. Staccato lightning (multiply branched, single stroke flash with no continuing current) is prevalent within the rainfree region around the main storm updraft and this is believed to be important, i.e., staccato flashes might be an important indicator of severe storm electrification. Results from data analysis from two stations appear to indicate that charge center heights can be estimated from a combination of intercept data with data from the fixed laboratory at NSSL. An excellent data base has been provided for determining the sight errors and efficiency of NSSL's LLP system. Cloud structures, observable in a low radar reflectivity region and on a scale smaller than is currently resolved by radar, which appear to be related to electrical activity are studied.
A brief description is given of significant research accomplishments and of planned research on atmospheric variability and the interaction of severe storms with their environment using atmospheric variability experiments data. Use of the results for the assessment of satellite capabilities are described briefly.
A nine-element continuum wave spectrum, high-frequency, Doppler sounder array has been used to detect upper atmospheric wave-like disturbances during periods with severe weather activity, particularly severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. Five events of severe weather activity, including extreme tornado outbreak of April 3, 1974, were chosen for the present study. The analysis of Doppler records shows that both infrasonic waves and gravity waves were excited when severe storms appeared in the north Alabama area. Primarily, in the case of tornado activity, S-shaped Doppler fluctuations or Doppler fold-backs are observed, while quasi-sinusoidal fluctuations are more common in the case of thunderstorm activity. A criterion for the production of Doppler fold-backs is derived and compared with possible tornado conditions.
Specifications are discussed for the overall system configuration, the processor, the scanner, the CO2 laser, and data analysis methods required to measure velocity flow fields associated with severe storms. Modifications to the clear air turbulence (CAT) system and its capability for two dimensional measuring are examined.