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NASA NTRS1991

Long-term changes in composition of solar particles implanted in extraterrestrial materials

Analysis of lunar surface samples for elements implanted therein by solar corpuscular radiation reveals evidence for the following compositional changes over a time period between 1.5 and 3 Gyr: 50-percent decreases in the ratios He-4/Ar-36 and Xe/Ar-36; a 20-percent increase in the ratio He-3/He-4; a 3-percent increase in the ratio Ne-20/Ne-22; and a 50-percent increase in the ratio N-15/N-14. The causes of these changes are not resolved at this time but may include (1) a change in acceleration conditions of the solar wind, (2) a change in flux of solar energetic particles relative to that of the solar wind, and (3) a change in composition of the solar convective zone. There is good evidence for a long-term decrease in the solar-wind flux.

Kerridge, J. F.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Thermal perturbation of the Sun

An investigation of thermal perturbations of the solar convective zone via changes in the mixing length parameter were carried out, with a view toward understanding the possible solar radius and luminosity changes cited in the literature. The results show that: (a) a single perturbation of alpha is probably not the cause of the solar radius change and (b) the parameter W = d lambda nR./d lambda nL. can not be characterized by a single value, as implied in recent work.

Twigg, L. W.↗

NASA NTRS1985

On theories of rotating convection zones

It is shown that the time rate of change brought about by turbulent convective motions in the angular momentum of a thin spherical shell is such as to increase the angular velocity of the lower part of the solar convection zone (SCZ) and to decrease the angular velocity of the upper part. Arguments are presented in favor of the following very tentative model of rotation in the SCZ: (1) the lower region is in weaker differential rotation than the surface and not constrained by the Taylor-Proudman theorem, and (2) the observed solar differential rotation at the surface is generated as the SCZ relaxes from the state in the lower part to the state at the surface. In the upper and lower layers of the SCZ, angular-momentum conservation between the turbulent motions and viscous stresses leads to an angular velocity increasing upward.

Durney, B. R.↗

NASA NTRS1990

The Advanced Solar Observatory

A conceptual plan for the development of a comprehensive long duration solar space observatory, The Advanced Solar Observatory (ASO) is described. The ASO is intended to provide solar astronomers with the observational power necessary to address fundamental problems relating to the solar convection zone and activity cycle; the thermal and nonthermal processes that control the transport of energy, mass, and magnetic flux in the solar atmosphere; the generation of the solar wind; and the dynamics of the inner heliosphere. The ASO concept encompasses three proposed Space Station-based instrument ensembles: (1) the High Resolution Telescope Cluster, which includes far ultraviolet, extreme ultraviolet, and X-ray telescopes; (2) the Pinhole/Occulter Facility, which includes Fourier transform and coded aperture hard X-ray and gamma ray telescopes and occulted ultraviolet and visible light coronagraphs; and (3) the High Energy Facility, which contains neutron, gamma ray, and low frequency radio spectrometers. Two other facilities, the Orbiting Solar Laboratory, and a package of Global Dynamics Instrumentation, will, with the Space Station ensembles, form a comprehensive capability for solar physics. The scientific program of the ASO, current instrument concepts for the Space Station based ASO instrument ensembles, and plans for their accommodation on the Space Station are described.

Walker, Arthur B. C., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1996

Tomographic Imaging of the Suns Interior

A new method is presented of determining the three-dimensional sound-speed structure and flow velocities in the solar convection zone by inversion of the acoustic travel-time data recently obtained by Duvall and coworkers. The initial inversion results reveal large-scale subsurface structures and flows related to the active regions, and are important for understanding the physics of solar activity and large-scale convection. The results provide evidence of a zonal structure below the surface in the low-latitude area of the magnetic activity. Strong converging downflows, up to 1.2 km/s, and a substantial excess of the sound speed are found beneath growing active regions. In a decaying active region, there is evidence for the lower than average sound speed and for upwelling of plasma.

Kosovichev, A. G.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Helioseismology: A probe of the solar interior, atmosphere, and activity cycle

Helioseismology began in earnest in the mid 1970's. In the two decades which have elapsed since that time this branch of solar physics has become a mature field of research. Helioseismology has demonstrated that the solar convection zone is about twice as deep as was generally thought to be the case before 1977. Helioseismology has also provided measurements of the solar internal angular velocity over much of the sun's interior. Helioseismology has also ruled out models which would solve the solar neutrino problem by a lowering of the temperature of the core. Recently, some of the seismic properties of the sun have been demonstrated to vary with changing levels of solar activity. Also, helioseismology has recently provided evidence for helical flow patterns in the shallow, sub-photosphere layers. The techniques of helioseismology are also expanding to include seismic probes of solar active regions. Some work is also being conducted into the possible contributions of the solar acoustic models to the heating of the solar atmosphere. In this talk I will highlight a few of the above results and concentrate on current areas of research in the field.

Rhodes, E. J., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Time-Series Analysis of Supergranule Characterstics at Solar Minimum

Sixty days of Doppler images from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) / Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) investigation during the 1996 and 2008 solar minima have been analyzed to show that certain supergranule characteristics (size, size range, and horizontal velocity) exhibit fluctuations of three to five days. Cross-correlating parameters showed a good, positive correlation between supergranulation size and size range, and a moderate, negative correlation between size range and velocity. The size and velocity do exhibit a moderate, negative correlation, but with a small time lag (less than 12 hours). Supergranule sizes during five days of co-temporal data from MDI and the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) / Helioseismic Magnetic Imager (HMI) exhibit similar fluctuations with a high level of correlation between them. This verifies the solar origin of the fluctuations, which cannot be caused by instrumental artifacts according to these observations. Similar fluctuations are also observed in data simulations that model the evolution of the MDI Doppler pattern over a 60-day period. Correlations between the supergranule size and size range time-series derived from the simulated data are similar to those seen in MDI data. A simple toy-model using cumulative, uncorrelated exponential growth and decay patterns at random emergence times produces a time-series similar to the data simulations. The qualitative similarities between the simulated and the observed time-series suggest that the fluctuations arise from stochastic processes occurring within the solar convection zone. This behavior, propagating to surface manifestations of supergranulation, may assist our understanding of magnetic-field-line advection, evolution, and interaction.

Dopplergrams↗

NASA NTRS1987

The generalization of mixing length theory to rotating convection zones and applications to the sun

The consequences of a balance between the Coriolis forces, pressure gradients, and buoyancy forces in a compressible medium are explored, and the generalization of mixing length theory to rotating convection zones is considered, with particular attention being given to the approximations involved. It is shown that if this balance holds, the latitudinally dependent part of the superadiabatic gradient is determined by the angular velocity. Reynolds stresses are found to transport angular momentum towards the equator and towards the deeper layers of the solar convection zone (SCZ). The behavior of the angular velocity at the boundaries of the SCZ is also studied.

Durney, Bernard R.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Predictions of Solar Cycle 24: How are We Doing?

Predictions of solar activity are an essential part of our Space Weather forecast capability. Users are requiring usable predictions of an upcoming solar cycle to be delivered several years before solar minimum. A set of predictions of the amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 accumulated in 2008 ranged from zero to unprecedented levels of solar activity. The predictions formed an almost normal distribution, centered on the average amplitude of all preceding solar cycles. The average of the current compilation of 105 predictions of the annual-average sunspot number is 106 +/- 31, slightly lower than earlier compilations but still with a wide distribution. Solar Cycle 24 is on track to have a below-average amplitude, peaking at an annual sunspot number of about 80. Our need for solar activity predictions and our desire for those predictions to be made ever earlier in the preceding solar cycle will be discussed. Solar Cycle 24 has been a below-average sunspot cycle. There were peaks in the daily and monthly averaged sunspot number in the Northern Hemisphere in 2011 and in the Southern Hemisphere in 2014. With the rapid increase in solar data and capability of numerical models of the solar convection zone we are developing the ability to forecast the level of the next sunspot cycle. But predictions based only on the statistics of the sunspot number are not adequate for predicting the next solar maximum. I will describe how we did in predicting the amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 and describe how solar polar field predictions could be made more accurate in the future.

Pesnell, William D.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Sources of uncertainty in direct seismological measurements of the solar helium abundance

The methods by which Dappen et al. (1988, 1990, 1991) and Dziembowski et al. (1990, 1991, 1992) recently obtained discrepant estimates of the helium abundance in the solar convection zone are compared. The aim of the investigation reported in this paper is to identify the main source of the discrepancy. Using as proxy data eigenfrequencies of a set of modes of a theoretical solar model, computed with the same physics as were the frequencies of a reference model with which these data are compared, the two methods yield similar results. Thus we ascertain that the principal source of the discrepancy is not in the inversions themselves, which yield essentially a measure of the variation of the adiabatic exponent gamma of the material in the He II ionization zone. Instead it is in the approximations adopted in the treatment of heavy elements in the equation of state used to relate the variation of gamma to chemical composition. We obtain acceptably consistent results when inverting solar data by two methods using the same equation of state. We attempt to identify the likely residual sources of uncertainty.

Kosovichev, A. G.↗

NASA NTRS2004

How Large Scales Flows May Influence Solar Activity

Large scale flows within the solar convection zone are the primary drivers of the Sun's magnetic activity cycle and play important roles in shaping the Sun's magnetic field. Differential rotation amplifies the magnetic field through its shearing action and converts poloidal field into toroidal field. Poleward meridional flow near the surface carries magnetic flux that reverses the magnetic poles at about the time of solar maximum. The deeper, equatorward meridional flow can carry magnetic flux back toward the lower latitudes where it erupts through the surface to form tilted active regions that convert toroidal fields into oppositely directed poloidal fields. These axisymmetric flows are themselves driven by large scale convective motions. The effects of the Sun's rotation on convection produce velocity correlations that can maintain both the differential rotation and the meridional circulation. These convective motions can also influence solar activity directly by shaping the magnetic field pattern. While considerable theoretical advances have been made toward understanding these large scale flows, outstanding problems in matching theory to observations still remain.

Hathaway, D. H.↗

NASA NTRS1998

The Solar Dynamo

The solar dynamo is the process by which the Sun's magnetic field is generated through the interaction of the field with convection and rotation. In this, it is kin to planetary dynamos and other stellar dynamos. Although the precise mechanism by which the Sun generates its field remains poorly understood despite decades of theoretical and observational work, recent advances suggest that solutions to this solar dynamo problem may be forthcoming. Two basic processes are involved in dynamo activity. When the fluid stresses dominate the magnetic stresses (high plasma beta = 8(pi)rho/B(sup 2)), shear flows can stretch magnetic field lines in the direction of the shear (the "alpha effect") and helical flows can lift and twist field lines into orthogonal planes (the "alpha effect"). These two processes can be active anywhere in the solar convection zone but with different results depending upon their relative strengths and signs. Little is known about how and where these processes occur. Other processes, such as magnetic diffusion and the effects of the fine scale structure of the solar magnetic field, pose additional problems.

Hathaway, David H.↗

NASA NTRS1985

The detection of global convective wave flows on the Sun

Global convective flows in the solar convection zone have been predicted by theoretical interpretations of the global-scale ordering of magnetic fields and activity centers and by theoretical analyses of rotating convection zones. Direct evidence of these flows in the photosphere has not previously been found despite several long-term efforts. The signatures of such flows have now been detected by analyzing the daily series of low-resolution Dopplergrams obtained at the Wilcox Solar Observatory at Stanford University. The signatures are patterns of alternating east and west flows with amplitudes on the order of 25 m/s and longitudinal extent of about 30 degrees. The patterns move across the disc at approximately the solar rotation rate and have lifetimes of at least several rotations. Boundaries of the fast and slow flows are often associated with large magnetic active regions.

Scherrer, P. H.↗

NASA NTRS1986

The detection of global convective wave flows on the sun

Scherrer, Philip H.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Properties of r-modes in the sun

Global oscillations of the sun (r-modes) with very long periods of about 1 month are reviewed and studied. Such modes would be trapped in an acoustic cavity formed either by most of the convective envelope or by most of the radiative interior. A turning point frequency giving cavity boundaries is defined and the run of eigenvalues for angular harmonics l less than or equal to 3 are plotted for a conventional solar convection zone. The r-modes show equipartition of oscillatory energy among shells which each contain one antinode in the radial dimension. Toroidal motion is dominant to at least the 14th radial harmonic mode. Viscosity from convective turbulence is strong and would damp any mode in just a few solar rotations if it were the only significant nonadiabatic effect. 'Radial fine splitting' which lifts the degeneracy in n is very small (20 nHz or less) for all n less than or equal to 14 trapped in the envelope. But if splitting could be detected, there would be a valuable new constraint on solar convection theories.

Wolff, C. L.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Solar Cycle Predictions Near Sunspot Minimum

Observations of solar magnetic activity and the dynamics of the solar convection zone have produced severe constraints on models of the Sun's magnetic dynamo. These constraints are so severe that, at present, we do not have numerical models that can accept the current conditions and then march forward in time to predict future activity. Given this state of solar dynamo theory we are forced to examine previous behavior to discover patterns and trends that afford us some measure of predictability. Here we examine the behavior of several indicators of solar activity near solar minimum that are well correlated with the amplitude of the following solar maximum to predict the level of solar activity over cycle 23. Sunspot numbers, areas, and positions are useful for characterizing solar cycle behavior due to the extent of the data (12 cycles or more). These data exhibit several patterns that relate future activity to past behavior. With the Odd-Even effect the odd numbered cycles have been larger than their even numbered predecessors for each of the last six cycle pairs. With the Amplitude-Period effect short period cycles have been followed by large amplitude cycles and long period cycles have been followed by small amplitude cycles for 10 of the last 13 cycles. With the Maximum-Minimum effect the sunspot number at minimum is directly correlated with the sunspot number at maximum for a given cycle. The geomagnetic indices aa and Ap are also related to solar activity by the connections between disturbances in the solar wind and variations in the Earth's magnetic field. Like the Maximum-Minimum effect for sunspots, the size of the aa and Ap indices at minimum are directly related to the amplitude of the following maximum. The number of geomagnetically disturbed days (days with Ap >= 25) over the course of a cycle is another indicator for the size of the next cycle. The aa and Ap indices can each be separated into a component in phase with the current sunspot cycle and an "extended cycle" component that is directly related to the following cycle. Individually each of these indicators provides some measure of predictive ability for the amplitudes of previous cycles. Taken in combination we find that the predictions are much more accurate. Our multi-variate analysis indicates that a maximum sunspot number of 160 +/- 20 should occur near the end of 1999 for cycle 23.

Hathaway, David H.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Subphotospheric current systems and flares

Subphotospheric current systems inferred from recent vector magnetograph observations imply the existence of electric currents penetrating the photosphere and thus flowing deep in the solar convection zone. These currents presumably originate in an internal dynamo that supplies the observed photospheric magnetic fields through the buoyant motions of the initially deeply-buried flux tubes. The coronal fields resulting from this process therefore must carry slowly-varying currents driven by emfs remote from the surface. These currents may then drive solar-flare energy release. This paper discusses the consequences of such a deep origin of the coronal parallel currents. Simple estimates for a large active region suggest a mean current-closure depth of not less than 10,000 km, with a subphotospheric inductance of not less than 100 H and a subphotospheric stored energy of not less than 10 to the 33rd ergs.

Hudson, Hugh S.↗

NASA NTRS1994

The possibility of forming an inhomogeneous Sun and the solar neutrino effect

Recent observations confirm that the flux of neutrinos from the interior of the Sun is significantly less than what is expected on the basis of solar models. It has long been known that a low neutrino flux could result from a temperature in the Sun's core lower than the approximately 1.5 x 10(exp 7) K central temperature given by standard solar models. A low central temperature could occur if the solar interior were depleted in the so-called metals -- atomic species heavier than helium -- resulting in lower internal opacity. In this case, chemical abundances measured in the solar convection zone would be unrepresentative of the deep-interior abundances. The possibility of a compositionally inhomogeneous Sun has usually been discarded on the basis of cosmogonical arguments against the formation of such nonhomogeneity. This paper suggests that compositional nonhomogeneity could have arisen through unremarkable physical processes during the formation of the Sun, and that a compositionally inhomogeneous Sun remains a viable possibility for investigation of the solar neutrino problem.

Levy, E. H.↗