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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2023

A Method for Projecting Cloud Shadows Onto a Central Receiver Field to Predict Receiver Damage

This work demonstrates methods of mapping high-spatial-resolution direct normal irradiance (DNI) data from satellites, Total Sky Imagers (TSIs), and analogous data sources onto a heliostat field for characterizing the spatial and temporal variation of the incident flux on a central receiver tower during cloud transient events. The mapping methods are incorporated into an optical software module that interfaces with CoPylot–SolarPILOT’s python API– to provide computationally efficient optical simulation of the heliostat field and the solar power tower. Eventually, this optical model will be incorporated into optimization models whereby a plant operator can understand the effects of cloud transient events on overall power production and receiver lifetime due to creep-fatigue damage and therefore make better informed decisions about receiver shutdown events. By more accurately modelling the effects of cloud events on receiver flux maps, this work may determine the magnitude and frequency of thermal cycling on receiver tubes and panels using actual or realistic cloud shapes instead of averaged DNI values–which may undercount the total cycle number. This work may also prevent unnecessary plant shutdowns due to overly precautionary control strategies and characterize the relative impact of various cloud types on receiver life. We plan to eventually integrate this methodology into the System Advisor Model (SAM) to improve performance model accuracy during periods of cloudiness. In this paper, we demonstrate generating DNI maps and mapping them to a solar field in CoPylot using 10 m resolution data from publicly available Sentinel-2 satellite data over the Crescent Dunes plant.

Mullin, Matthew↗
DOE OSTI2021

Understanding water and energy fluxes in the Amazonia: Lessons from an observation‐model intercomparison

Abstract Tropical forests are an important part of global water and energy cycles, but the mechanisms that drive seasonality of their land‐atmosphere exchanges have proven challenging to capture in models. Here, we (1) report the seasonality of fluxes of latent heat (LE), sensible heat ( H ), and outgoing short and longwave radiation at four diverse tropical forest sites across Amazonia—along the equator from the Caxiuanã and Tapajós National Forests in the eastern Amazon to a forest near Manaus, and from the equatorial zone to the southern forest in Reserva Jaru; (2) investigate how vegetation and climate influence these fluxes; and (3) evaluate land surface model performance by comparing simulations to observations. We found that previously identified failure of models to capture observed dry‐season increases in evapotranspiration (ET) was associated with model overestimations of (1) magnitude and seasonality of Bowen ratios (relative to aseasonal observations in which sensible was only 20%–30% of the latent heat flux) indicating model exaggerated water limitation, (2) canopy emissivity and reflectance (albedo was only 10%–15% of incoming solar radiation, compared to 0.15%–0.22% simulated), and (3) vegetation temperatures (due to underestimation of dry‐season ET and associated cooling). These partially compensating model‐observation discrepancies (e.g., higher temperatures expected from excess Bowen ratios were partially ameliorated by brighter leaves and more interception/evaporation) significantly biased seasonal model estimates of net radiation ( R n ), the key driver of water and energy fluxes (LE ~ 0.6 R n and H ~ 0.15 R n ), though these biases varied among sites and models. A better representation of energy‐related parameters associated with dynamic phenology (e.g., leaf optical properties, canopy interception, and skin temperature) could improve simulations and benchmarking of current vegetation–atmosphere exchange and reduce uncertainty of regional and global biogeochemical models.

Restrepo‐Coupe, Natalia↗
DOE OSTI2022

Physiochemical Machine Learning Models Predict Operational Lifetimes of CH3NH3PbI3 Perovskite Solar Cells

Halide perovskites are promising photovoltaic (PV) materials with the potential to lower the cost of electricity and greatly expand the penetration of PV if they can demonstrate long-term stability under illumination in the presence of moisture and oxygen. The solar cell service lifetime as quantified by the T80 (the time required for the power conversion efficiency to drop to 80% of its starting value) is a useful metric to assess stability. The T80 for utility, commercial, or residential PV systems needs to be several decades in order to yield low-cost electricity, and thus it is not practical to directly measure the T80. It would be useful if T80 could be predicted from the initial dynamics of a solar cell’s performance, but until now no models have been developed to forecast T80. In this work, we report the development of machine learning models to predict T80 of ITO/NiOx/CH3NH3PbI3/C60/BCP/Ag solar cells operating at maximum power point under 1-sun equivalent photon flux in air at varying temperatures and relative humidities. Efficiency losses are driven by short-circuit current and fill factor, indicating that chemical decomposition of the perovskite is a major contributor to degradation. Spatial patterns evident from in situ dark field optical microscopy suggest that the electric field gradient at device edges plays a significant role in perovskite decomposition, along with photochemical reactions with O2 and H2O. Models are trained using a menu of features from three distinct categories: (i) features based on measurements of the initial rates of change of device parameters, (ii) features based on the ambient conditions during operation (temperature, & partial pressure of H2O), and (iii) features based on underlying physics and chemistry. We show that a theory-based physiochemical feature derived from a model of the chemical reaction kinetics of the rate of degradation of the CH3NH3PbI3 is particularly valuable for prediction. This physiochemical feature was selected as the first or second most dominant feature in the best performing models. With a dataset consisting of 45 accelerated degradation experiments with T80 that range over a factor of 30, the model predicts T80 with an accuracy of about 40% (|predicted T80 - observed T80| / observed T80) on samples not used in training. This hybrid ML approach should be effective when applied to other compositions, device architectures, and advanced packaging schemes.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Physiochemical Machine Learning Models Predict Operational Lifetimes of CH3NH3PbI3 Perovskite Solar Cells

Halide perovskites are promising photovoltaic (PV) materials with the potential to lower the cost of electricity and greatly expand the penetration of PV if they can demonstrate long-term stability under illumination in the presence of moisture and oxygen. The solar cell service lifetime as quantified by the T80 (the time required for the power conversion efficiency to drop to 80% of its starting value) is a useful metric to assess stability. The T80 for utility, commercial, or residential PV systems needs to be several decades in order to yield low-cost electricity, and thus it is not practical to directly measure the T80. It would be useful if T80 could be predicted from the initial dynamics of a solar cell’s performance, but until now no models have been developed to forecast T80. In this work, we report the development of machine learning models to predict T80 of ITO/NiOx/CH3NH3PbI3/C60/BCP/Ag solar cells operating at maximum power point under 1-sun equivalent photon flux in air at varying temperatures and relative humidities. Efficiency losses are driven by short-circuit current and fill factor, indicating that chemical decomposition of the perovskite is a major contributor to degradation. Spatial patterns evident from in situ dark field optical microscopy suggest that the electric field gradient at device edges plays a significant role in perovskite decomposition, along with photochemical reactions with O2 and H2O. Models are trained using a menu of features from three distinct categories: (i) features based on measurements of the initial rates of change of device parameters, (ii) features based on the ambient conditions during operation (temperature, & partial pressure of H2O), and (iii) features based on underlying physics and chemistry. We show that a theory-based physiochemical feature derived from a model of the chemical reaction kinetics of the rate of degradation of the CH3NH3PbI3 is particularly valuable for prediction. This physiochemical feature was selected as the first or second most dominant feature in the best performing models. With a dataset consisting of 45 accelerated degradation experiments with T80 that range over a factor of 30, the model predicts T80 with an accuracy of about 40% (|predicted T80 - observed T80| / observed T80) on samples not used in training. This hybrid ML approach should be effective when applied to other compositions, device architectures, and advanced packaging schemes.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Solar Neutrino Detection with a Pixelated Liquid-Argon Time Projection Chamber

This thesis presents a study of low-energy solar neutrino detection using large-scale LArTPCs, focussing on novel pixelated readout technologies. Solar neutrinos offer a unique probe of fundamental neutrino properties and solar physics, but their detection in the MeV range is challenged by backgrounds. We investigate two complementary technologies: SoLAr, which integrates LArPix-based pixelated charge collection with Silicon Photomultipliers (SiPMs) in a hybrid anode design for simultaneous charge and light detection; and Q-Pix, a triggerless pixelated readout architecture based on charge integrate-reset circuits with local clocks, where Reset Time Differences encode ionisation waveforms via time-to-charge conversion. Two SoLAr prototypes were developed and operated, demonstrating VUV-sensitive SiPM performance in liquid argon and accurate charge-light signal matching with a charge detection threshold of $\sim 100 \mathrm{keV}$. We also implement a complete simulation and reconstruction framework, incorporating realistic detector geometry, electron transport, readout response, and detailed signal and background models, including intrinsic argon and radon progeny, as well as site-specific $\gamma$-ray and neutron fluxes. For Q-Pix, we demonstrate that with a pixel size of $4\times 4$ mm$^2$ and a reset threshold of 1 fC ($\sim 0.1475$ MeV), full-scale operation produces data volumes below 1 PB per 10 ktonne-year. For SoLAr, assuming a shielded DUNE-like detector and 100 ktonne-year exposure, we project uncertainties of $0.90\times 10^{-5}$ eV$^2$ on $\Delta m^2_{21}$ and 0.033 on $\sin^2\theta_{12}$, improving to $0.46\times 10^{-5}$ eV$^2$ and 0.025 with 400 kilotonne-year. At this higher exposure, we also obtain a day–night flux asymmetry at the level of $( -5.6 \pm 3.6 ) \%$. Combining Monte Carlo modelling, hardware validation, and advanced reconstruction techniques, this work establishes a path toward next-generation ktonne-scale LArTPCs as observatories for precision solar neutrino physics.

Ruiz Ferreira, Guilherme [Manchester U.] (ORCID:00↗
DOE OSTI2025

Damage modeling of power tower receiver tubes using the SRLIFE tool

Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) molten-salt central receivers are subject to high, transient incident flux during daily operation. The resulting creep-fatigue damage impacts the receiver’s reliability and restricts the permissible incident flux distribution for a given receiver. This paper aims to reduce CSP plants’ levelized cost of electricity by developing a methodology to predict lifetime and identifies the primary damage mechanism (creep vs fatigue) for any given fluid temperature and temperature gradient. Results are presented in the form of a damage map that serves as a valuable operation guide and design tool. Damage maps can be used to reduce maintenance costs by improving reliability and reduce receiver capital costs by better utilizing the receiver area. FEA simulation and damage modeling of tubes subject to asymmetrical flux conditions is performed in the open-source receiver design tool srlife. Parametric studies are performed over a range of inner tube temperatures and thermal gradients for A230, 316H, 740H, A282, A617, and 800H high temperature alloys. Damage maps are presented for each alloy. A parametric, FEA-based methodology is presented for comparison of fatigue-creep ratios and prediction of tube lifetime based on the critical thermal operating conditions. Fatigue is found to be negligible compared to creep for almost every case. Here, this finding suggests that fatigue effects associated with cloud events are insignificant compared to creep at these high temperature operating conditions. Additionally, lifetime predictions identify thermal conditions where small changes in operating conditions can result in large changes in predicted lifetime.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Numerical study of coronal plasma jet formation

A new scenario for solar flare eruption in the coronal holes is analyzed by using MHD stability concepts for a spheromak configuration. The stability properties of a spheromak partially embedded into a conducting surface are studied using three dimensional MHD simulations. In agreement with the analytical theory, a large degree of line-tying stabilizes the spheromak's tilt instability, while the elongation has a destabilizing effect. High-resolution nonlinear simulations also demonstrate current sheet formation at the upper surface of the spheromak, where the tilted magnetic field of the spheromak reconnects with the background magnetic field. The calculated stability threshold and the observed magnetic reconnection support a model of coronal jet eruptions where a dome-like magnetic structure grows through flux emergence on the solar surface, tilts, reconnects, and erupts. Countering the effect from elongation, line-tying strongly stabilizes a spheromak growing from a flux-emergence process, suggesting that to accelerate the onset of eruptive coronal jets, there must be magnetic reconnection at the bottom of the spheromak to detach the structure from the solar surface.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Data-Driven Specification of Earth's Magnetic Field

As our society is increasingly dependent on technologies in space, predicting space weather becomes ever more important. We have come to rely on technologies such as cellphones, GPS, the Internet, and other commercial and military assets. In order to protect these systems a high priority is to develop better understanding of the harmful conditions of space weather encountered in the near-Earth radiation environment which are mostly dictated by the dynamics of energetic charged particles. The main objective of our proposal was to improve the specification and forecast of the particle distribution in the Earth’s inner magnetosphere using data assimilation together with machine learning (ML) algorithms in our ring current-atmosphere interactions model with self-consistent magnetic and electric fields (RAM-SCBE). Specifically, we explored the application of machine learning algorithms to emulate and improve, through infusion of observational data, the magnetic field (SCBE) of our ring current model. Our work advanced towards the characterization of the RAM-SCBE particle flux field and its potentially different simulation scenarios. We explored how the model behaves in a number of simulation scenarios in order to better understand how the model reacts to perturbations in the solar wind. We were able to capture this behavior through the simulation of an ensemble of RAM-SCB model solutions. The ensemble showed the important correlations between the particle fluxes and the magnetic field. We were able to start the training of a neural network (Autoencoder) to identify the dominant features of the magnetic field, and the main correlations (linear and non-linear) between the particle fluxes and the magnetic field. Our next steps consists of training a neural network to capture the time evolution of the dominant features and obtain a consistent surrogate model for the RAM-SCB.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

A parameterization of sub-grid topographical effects on solar radiation in the E3SM Land Model (version 1.0): implementation and evaluation over the Tibetan Plateau

Abstract. Topography exerts significant influences on the incoming solar radiation at the land surface. A few stand-alone regional and global atmospheric models have included parameterizations for sub-grid topographic effects on solar radiation. However, nearly all Earth system models (ESMs) that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) use a plane-parallel (PP) radiative transfer scheme that assumes that the terrain is flat. In this study, we incorporated a well-validated sub-grid topographic (TOP) parameterization in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model (ELM) version 1.0 to quantify the effects of sub-grid topography on solar radiation flux, including the shadow effects and multi-scattering between adjacent terrain. We studied the role of sub-grid topography by performing ELM simulations with the PP and TOP schemes over the Tibetan Plateau (TP). Additional ELM simulations were performed at multiple spatial resolutions to investigate the role of spatial scale on sub-grid topographic effects on solar radiation. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data was used to compare with the ELM simulations. The results show that topography has non-negligible effects on surface energy budget, snow cover, snow depth, and surface temperature over the TP. The absolute differences in surface energy fluxes for net solar radiation, latent heat flux, and sensible heat flux between TOP and PP exceed 20, 10, and 5 W m−2, respectively. The differences in land surface albedo, snow cover fraction, snow depth, and surface temperature between TOP and PP exceed 0.1, 0.1, 10 cm, and 1 K, respectively. The magnitude of the sub-grid topographic effects is dependent on seasons and elevations and is also sensitive to the spatial scales. Although the sub-grid topographic effects on solar radiation are larger with more spatial details at finer spatial scales, they cannot be simply neglected at coarse spatial scales. When compared to MODIS data, incorporating the sub-grid topographic effects overall reduces the biases of ELM in simulating surface energy balance, snow cover, and surface temperature, especially in the high-elevation and snow-covered regions over the TP. The inclusion of sub-grid topographic effects on solar radiation parameterization in ELM will contribute to advancing our understanding of the role of the surface topography on terrestrial processes over complex terrain.

Hao, Dalei (ORCID:0000000334979774)↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Parameterization of Sub-grid Topographical Effects on Solar Radiation in the E3SM Land Model (Version 1.0): Implementation and Evaluation Over the Tibetan Plateau

Topography exerts significant influences on the incoming solar radiation at the land surface. A few stand-alone regional and global atmospheric models have included parameterizations for sub-grid topographic effects on solar radiation. However, nearly all Earth System Models (ESMs) that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) use a plane-parallel (PP) radiative transfer scheme that assumes the terrain is flat. In this study, we incorporated a well-validated sub-grid topographic (TOP) parameterization in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model (ELM) version 1.0 to quantify the effects of sub-grid topography on solar radiation flux, including the shadow effects and multi-scattering between adjacent terrain. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data was used to evaluate the performance of ELM. We studied the role of sub-grid topography by performing ELM simulations with the PP and TOP schemes over the Tibetan Plateau (TP). Additional ELM simulations were performed at multiple spatial resolutions to investigate the role of spatial scale on sub-grid topographic effects on solar radiation. When compared to MODIS data, incorporating the sub-grid topographic effects overall reduces the biases of ELM in simulating surface energy balance, snow cover and surface temperature especially in the high-elevation and snow-cover regions over the TP. Topography has non-negligible effects on surface energy budget, snow cover, and surface temperature over the TP. The absolute differences in surface energy fluxes for net solar radiation, latent heat flux, and sensible heat flux between TOP and PP exceed 20 W/m 2 , 10 W/m 2 , and 5 W/m 2 , respectively. The differences in land surface albedo, snow cover fraction, and surface temperature between TOP and PP exceed 0.1, 20%, and 1K, respectively. The magnitude of the sub-grid topographic effects is dependent on seasons and elevations, and is also sensitive to the spatial scales. Although the sub-grid topographic effects on solar radiation are more significant with more spatial details at finer spatial scales, they cannot be simply neglected at coarse spatial scales. The inclusion of sub-grid topographic effects on solar radiation parameterization in ELM will contribute to advancing our understanding of the role of the surface topography on terrestrial processes over complex terrain.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Demonstrating SolarPILOT’s Python API Through Heliostat Optimal Aimpoint Strategy Use Case

SolarPILOT is a software package that generates solar field layouts and characterizes the optical performance of concentrating solar power (CSP) tower systems. SolarPILOT was developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) as a stand-alone desktop application but has also been incorporated into NREL’s1 System Advisor Model (SAM) in a simplified format. Prior means for user interaction with SolarPILOT have included the application’s graphical interface, the SAM routines with limited configurability, and through a built-in scripting language called “LK.” This paper presents a new, full-featured, Python-based application programmable interface (API) for SolarPILOT, which we hereafter refer to as CoPylot. CoPylot provides access to all SolarPILOT’s capabilities to generate and characterize power tower CSP systems seamlessly through Python. Supported capabilities include (i) creating and destroying a model instance with message reporting tools; (ii) accessing and setting any SolarPILOT variable including custom land boundaries for field layouts; (iii) programmatically managing receiver and heliostat objects with varied attributes for systems with multiple receiver or heliostat types; (iv) generating, assigning, and modifying solar field layouts including the ability to set individual heliostat locations, aimpoints, soiling rates, and reflectivity levels; (v) simulating solar field performance; (vi) returning detailed results describing performance of individual heliostats, the aggregate field, and receiver flux distribution; and, (vii) exporting Python-based model instances to multiple file formats. CoPylot enables Python users to perform detailed CSP tower analysis utilizing either the Hermite expansion technique (analytical) or the SolTrace ray-tracing engine. In addition to CoPylot’s functionality, Python users have access to the over 100,000 open-source libraries to develop, analyze, optimize, and visualize power tower CSP research. This enables CSP researchers to perform analysis that was previously not possible through SolarPILOT’s existing interfaces. This paper discusses the capabilities of CoPylot and presents a use case wherein we demonstrate optimal solar field aiming strategies.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evidence for the 3D Radiative Effects of Boundary-Layer Clouds From Observations of Direct and Diffuse Surface Solar Fluxes

Numerical experiments have revealed the importance of horizontal transport of light in the presence of clouds (“3D effects”), with consequences for climate, weather, and solar resource availability predictions. Yet, analysis of 3D effects from observations remain sparse because of the difficulty to isolate the effect of horizontal transport in radiation measurements. In this study, we provide observational evidence for 3D effects based on the direct-diffuse partition of surface solar fluxes. It is compared to outputs from the ecRad radiative transfer scheme run on retrieved cloud profiles. Furthermore, the direct-beam calculation takes careful account of the field-of-view of the pyrheliometer to ensure consistency between observed and modeled direct fluxes. Only the solver that accounts for 3D effects is able to reproduce the observed mean direct-diffuse partition as a function of solar zenith angle and cloud cover, in particular at large solar zenith angles where cloud sides intercept most of the direct beam.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

ClimGen: Learning the Forcing-Response Relationship in Climate System

Solar Radiation Management (SRM) is emerging as a potential geoengineering strategy to address the anthropogenic impact on climate, but its effective implementation requires an iterative and large ensemble of highly accurate and efficient climate projections. Traditional climate projections rely on executing computationally demanding and time-consuming numerical climate models. Recent advances in machine learning (ML) aim to enhance these approaches by emulating traditional methods. In this work, we propose a novel framework for directly learning the relationship between solar radiation flux at the top of the atmosphere and the corresponding surface temperature response. To evaluate the feasibility of this direct ML-based projection, we developed a dataset using an intermediate complexity model, incorporating a comprehensive suite of different forcing patterns and evaluation metrics to rigorously assess the ML model’s performance. We introduce a Conditional Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Model (cDDPM) for this task, which demonstrates encouraging skill in representing climate statistics under previously unseen forcing patterns. This approach provides a promising pathway for direct climate projections by accurately learning the forcing-response relationship, with a wide range of applications in impact mitigation, emissions policy design, and SRM strategies.

Chen, Tse-Chun [BATTELLE (PACIFIC NW LAB)] (ORCID:↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Near-infrared Spectrum of the Nuclear Star Cluster: Looking below the Tip of the Iceberg, and Comparisons with Extragalactic Nuclei

Long-slit near-infrared (NIR) spectra of the Galactic nuclear star cluster (NSC) are discussed. The spectra sample the major axis of the NSC out to its half-light radius. The absorption spectrum of the central regions of the NSC is averaged over angular scales of tens of arc seconds in order to sample globular cluster-like total luminosities, and the results are compared with model spectra. The equivalent widths of Na i2.21 μm and Ca 2.26 μm outside of the center of the NSC, where light from nuclear bulge stars contributes a large fraction to the total flux, are consistent with solar chemical mixtures. In contrast, the equivalent widths of Na i2.21 μm and Ca i2.26 μm near the center of the NSC are larger than expected from models with solar chemical mixtures, even after light from the brightest evolved stars is removed. The depths of spectroscopic features changing along the major axis of the NSC are consistent with imaging studies that have found evidence of population gradients in the NSC. That Na i2.21 μm and Ca i2.26 μm are deeper than predicted for solar chemical mixtures over a range of evolutionary states is consistent with previous studies that find that the majority of stars near the center of the NSC formed from material that had nonsolar chemical mixtures. The depths of the Na i2.21 μm and Ca i2.26 μm features in the central regions of the NSC are comparable to those in the nuclear spectrum of the early-type Virgo disk galaxy NGC 4491, and are deeper than in the central spectra of NGC 253 and 7793. A spectrum of nebular emission and the youngest stars near the galactic center is also extracted. The equivalent widths of emission features in the extracted NIR spectrum are similar to those in the nuclear spectrum of NGC 253, and it is argued that this agreement is best achieved if the current episode of star formation near the center of the NSC has been in progress for at least a few megayears.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Constraining the charge-, time-, and rigidity-dependence of cosmic-ray solar modulation with AMS-02 observations during Solar Cycle 24

Our basic theoretical understanding of the sources of cosmic rays and their propagation through the interstellar medium is hindered by the Sun, that through the solar wind affects the observed cosmic-ray spectra. This effect is known as solar modulation. Recently released cosmic-ray observations from the Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer (AMS-02) and publicly available measurements of the solar wind properties from the Advanced Composition Explorer and the Wilcox observatory allow us to test the analytical modeling of the time-, charge- and rigidity-dependence of solar modulation. We rely on associating measurements on the local heliospheric magnetic field and the heliospheric current sheet’s tilt angle, to model the time-dependence and amplitude of cosmic-ray solar modulation. We find evidence for the solar modulation’s charge- and rigidity-dependence during the era of solar cycle 24. Our analytic prescription to model solar modulation can explain well the large-scale time evolution of positively charged cosmic-ray fluxes in the range of rigidities from 1 GV to 10 GV. Here, we also find that cosmic-ray electron fluxes measured during the first years of cycle 24 are less trivial to explain, due to the complex and rapidly evolving structure of the heliosphere’s magnetic field that they experienced as they propagated inwards.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dynamically Downscaled (WRF) 1km, Hourly Meteorological Conditions 1987-2020. East/Taylor Watersheds

This dataset contains meteorological output from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) version 3.8.1. This dataset has been created to 1) investigate hydrometeorological processes impacting the East River and water-delivery to the Critical Zone, and 2) provide meteorological forcing data for distributed Earth-science modeling applications in the East River watershed. Variables have a 1 kilometer spatial resolution and hourly temporal resolution and encompass a rectangular region encompassing the East and Taylor River watersheds, Colorado, near the town of Crested Butte. WRF was forced using Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) lateral boundary conditions. Each .zip file contains one "water year" of data (October 1 -- September 30; i.e. water year 2017 starts October 1, 2016 and ends September 30, 2017). Each zip folder contains 12 netcdf (.nc) files containing one month of hourly data each and are approximately 250mb. Model timestamps are in UTC time.The files contain the following data variables:EAST_MASK: binary mask of the watershed regionTAYLOR_MASK: binary mask of the watershed regionGLW downwelling longwave radiation (w/m2)HR_PRCP: Hourly Precipitation Rate (mm/hr). Includes all hydrometeors (solid+liquid). HFX NoahMP LSM total grid-cell modelled sensible heat flux (w/m2) [positive towards atmosphere]LH NoahMP LSM total grid-cell modelled latent heat flux (w/m2) [positive towards atmosphere; can be converted to ET]PSFC Surface Barometric Pressure (hPa)Q2 Two-meter specific humidity (kg/kg)SWDOWN Downwelling shortwave solar radiation (w/m2)SWNORM Terrain-normal downwelling shortwave radiation (w/m2)T2 Two-meter air temperature (deg K)U10 10-m U-component of wind velocity (m/s)V10 10m V-component of wind velocity (m/s)XLAT Latitude of grid-center point XLONG Longitude of grid-center point XTIME Model timestamp, **in UTC**

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Antiprotons and Elementary Particles over a Solar Cycle: Results from the Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer

We present results over an 11-year Solar cycle of cosmic antiprotons based on 1.1 × 10 6 events in the rigidity range from 1.00 to 41.9 GV. The $\bar{𝑝}$ fluxes exhibit distinct properties. The magnitude of the $\bar{𝑝}$ flux temporal variation is significantly smaller than those of 𝑝, 𝑒 − , and 𝑒 + . A hysteresis between the $\bar{𝑝}$ fluxes and the 𝑝 fluxes is observed, whereas the $\bar{𝑝}$ and 𝑒 − fluxes show a linear correlation. With a model-independent analysis, we found a universal relation between the shape of the rigidity spectrum and the magnitude of flux temporal variation over an 11-year Solar cycle for both positively and negatively charged particles. The simultaneous results on $\bar{𝑝}$ and 𝑝, 𝑒 − , and 𝑒 + provide unique information for understanding particle transport in the Solar System as a function of mass, charge, and spectral shape.

cosmic ray composition & spectra↗
DOE OSTI2024

Reduced‐Order Probabilistic Emulation of Physics‐Based Ring Current Models: Application to RAM‐SCB Particle Flux

Abstract In this work, we address the computational challenge of large‐scale physics‐based simulation models for the ring current. Reduced computational cost allows for significantly faster than real‐time forecasting, enhancing our ability to predict and respond to dynamic changes in the ring current, valuable for space weather monitoring and mitigation efforts. Additionally, it can also be used for a comprehensive investigation of the system. Thus, we aim to create an emulator for the Ring current‐Atmosphere interactions Model with Self‐Consistent magnetic field (RAM‐SCB) particle flux that not only improves efficiency but also facilitates forecasting with reliable estimates of prediction uncertainties. The probabilistic emulator is built upon the methodology developed by Licata and Mehta (2023), https://doi.org/10.1029/2022sw003345 . A novel discrete sampling is used to identify 30 simulation periods over 20 years of solar and geomagnetic activity. Focusing on a subset of particle flux, we use Principal Component Analysis for dimensionality reduction and Long Short‐Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks to perform dynamic modeling. Hyperparameter space was explored extensively resulting in about 5% median symmetric accuracy across all data sets for one‐step dynamic prediction. Using a hierarchical ensemble of LSTMs, we have developed a reduced‐order probabilistic emulator (ROPE) tailored for time‐series forecasting of particle flux in the ring current. This ROPE offers accurate predictions of omnidirectional flux at a single energy with no pitch angle information, providing robust predictions on the test set with an error score below 11% and calibration scores under 8% with bias under 2% providing a significant speed up as compared to the full RAM‐SCB run.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗