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At least 55 records · Page 3

Future mission studies: Forecasting solar flux directly from its chaotic time series

The mathematical structure of the programs written to construct a nonlinear predictive model to forecast solar flux directly from its time series without reference to any underlying solar physics is presented. This method and the programs are written so that one could apply the same technique to forecast other chaotic time series, such as geomagnetic data, attitude and orbit data, and even financial indexes and stock market data. Perhaps the most important application of this technique to flight dynamics is to model Goddard Trajectory Determination System (GTDS) output of residues between observed position of spacecraft and calculated position with no drag (drag flag = off). This would result in a new model of drag working directly from observed data.

Ashrafi, S.↗

Simplified Solar Modulation Model of Inner Trapped Belt Proton Flux As a Function of Atmospheric Density

No simple algorithm seems to exist for calculating proton fluxes and lifetimes in the Earth's inner, trapped radiation belt throughout the solar cycle. Most models of the inner trapped belt in use depend upon AP8 which only describes the radiation environment at solar maximum and solar minimum in Cycle 20. One exception is NOAAPRO which incorporates flight data from the TIROS/NOAA polar orbiting spacecraft. The present study discloses yet another, simple formulation for approximating proton fluxes at any time in a given solar cycle, in particular between solar maximum and solar minimum. It is derived from AP8 using a regression algorithm technique from nuclear physics. From flux and its time integral fluence, one can then approximate dose rate and its time integral dose. It has already been published in this journal that the absorbed dose rate, D, in the trapped belts exhibits a power law relationship, D = A(rho)(sup -n), where A is a constant, rho is the atmospheric density, and the index n is weakly dependent upon shielding. However, that method does not work for flux and fluence. Instead, we extend this idea by showing that the power law approximation for flux J is actually bivariant in energy E as well as density rho. The resulting relation is J(E,rho)approx.(sum of)A(E(sup n))rho(sup -n), with A itself a power law in E. This provides another method for calculating approximate proton flux and lifetime at any time in the solar cycle. These in turn can be used to predict the associated dose and dose rate.

Wilson, Thomas L.↗

Empirical solar proton model for orbiting spacecraft applications

An empirical model for energetic solar proton fluxes is presented. With this model the effects of such protons on geocentric space missions, to be flown during the next solar active period (1977-1983), and with orbits involving partial magnetospheric shielding, may be estimated. A synoptic background review is given, followed by a detailed discussion of the model's use, errors, uncertainties, and limitations, including sample calculations which demonstrate the application of specific or general project missions. Finally, for circular trajectories, percentage exposure maps are presented, depicting fractional mission times spent outside particular L shells as functions of orbit altitude and inclination.

Stassinopoulos, E. G.↗

Revisions to Photochemical Data for Use in Atmospheric Modeling

Solar and stellar flux incident on an atmosphere can cause molecules to dissociate into highly reactive species and allows for photochemical processes to play a fundamental role in atmospheric chemistry. While models have tried to simulate such processes, they are extremely sensitive to photoabsorption cross-sections and quantum yields: two parameters that are important in determining the photodissociation rate, and hence the lifetime, of atmospheric compounds. Obtaining high-resolution and current data for these parameters is therefore highly desirable. Due to this, database and literature searches for high-quality cross-sections and quantum yields were performed and compiled for KINETICS, a Caltech/JPL Chemical Transport Model that can be used in modeling planetary atmospheres. Furthermore, photodissociation rates determined by running a Titan 1-D model were used to verify the completeness of these latest revisions.

Chemical Transport Model (CTM)↗

Solar EUV irradiance derived from a sounding rocket experiment on November 10, 1988

Results are presented on the solar EUV irradiance measurements in the range 30-100 nm obtained in a sounding rocket experiment launched from the White Sands Missile Range, New Mexico, on November 10, 1988. The observed solar EUV irradiance was found to be about 20 percent less than the solar EUV flux from a proxy model based on the daily 10.7-cm solar flux and its 81-day mean and the AE-E solar EUV data taken in the 1970s. The November 10 measurement of the solar EUV flux provides a good calibration reference spectrum for the solar EUV instruments on the San Marco satellite.

Woods, Thomas N.↗

Modeling receiver flux of commercial power tower concentrating solar power plants using ray tracing: a round-robin comparison of SolTrace, Solstice, and TieSOL

This study presents a multi-stage, cross-validation comparison of three software packages for Monte Carlo ray tracing (MCRT) applied to central tower concentrating solar power (CSP) systems. The three packages evaluated are: (1) SolTrace, an open-source tool developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL); (2) Solstice, an open-source program created by CNRS-PROMES and Meso-Star, with enhancements for CSP applications (called solsticepy) from the Australian National University; and (3) TieSOL, a commercial software developed by Tietronix. This investigation extends previous ray tracing comparisons by incorporating models of multi-facet heliostats within a commercial-scale solar field, taking into account zoned focal lengths and canting configurations. Receiver flux distributions were compared across the tools using a series of case studies, including single-heliostat scenarios, isolated blocking situations, and comprehensive full-field simulations. The case studies were designed to diagnose differences across the models at varying levels of complexity, and to identify and resolve discrepancies as additional parameters were introduced. Key factors examined in the analysis include sun positions, heliostat location, facet and canting focus, and aimpoint strategies. The comparison aims to improve the accuracy and reliability of these tools while providing benchmark cases for validating future optical modeling tools.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Comparison of methods for calibrating AVIRIS data to ground reflectance

We are comparing three basic methods of calibrating AVIRIS data to ground reflectance: (1) atmospheric radiative transfer models with the solar flux can be used to calibrate AVIRIS radiance data (Specific methods include the University of Colorado CSES ARP and ATREM algorithms); (2) Robert Green's modified MODTRAN and AVIRIS radiance model (This method is similar to 1 but differs in that the solar radiance is bypassed, so any errors in the solar flux are canceled, too); and (3) ground calibration using known sites in the AVIRIS scene. We are using 1992AVIRIS data over Cuprite, Nevada, and Blackhawk Island, Wisconsin, as our test scenes. Both these sites have extensive field measurements. The Cuprite site had a very clear atmosphere, thus path radiance was dominated by Rayleigh scattering with little or no flux beyond 1 micron. The Blackhawk site has more aerosols, with significant path radiance flux beyond 2 micron.

Clark, Roger N.↗

Probabilistic Model for Low Altitude Trapped Proton Fluxes

A new approach is developed for the assessment of low altitude trapped proton fluxes for future space missions. Low altitude fluxes are dependent on solar activity levels due to the resulting heating and cooling of the upper atmosphere. However, solar activity levels cannot be accurately predicted far enough into the future to accommodate typical spacecraft mission planning. Thus, the approach suggested here is to evaluate the trapped proton flux as a function of confidence level for a given mission time period. This is possible because of a recent advance in trapped proton modeling that uses the solar 10.7 cm radio flux, a measure of solar cycle activity, to calculate trapped proton fluxes as a continuous function of time throughout the solar cycle. This trapped proton model is combined with a new statistical description of the 10.7 cm flux to obtain the probabilistic model for low altitude trapped proton fluxes. Results for proton energies ranging from 1.5 to 81.3 MeV are examined as a function of time throughout solar cycle 22 for various orbits. For altitudes below 1000 km, fluxes are significantly higher and energy spectra are significantly harder than those predicted by the AP8 model.

Xapsos, M. A.↗

Study of the response of stratospheric ozone to perturbations in the solar constant and solar UV flux

A one-dimensional radiative-convective photochemical model has been used to examine the response of stratospheric and total ozone to perturbations in the solar flux. The model considers a detailed chemical reaction mechanism; vertical transport is parameterized through eddy diffusion coefficients. The temperature profile is calculated using a radiative transfer model for both time-dependent and steady-state cases. Results are discussed for the following types of perturbations: a 5% increase in the solar UV flux in the wavelength range 175-300 nm, a 5% increase in the solar constant, and an annual 6.6% variation in the solar constant associated with the variation in the earth-sun distance.

Natarajan, M.↗

Probabilistic Prediction of Geomagnetic Storms and the K p index

Geomagnetic activity is often described using summary indices to summarize the likelihood of space weather impacts, as well as when parameterizing space weather models. The geomagnetic index K p in particular, is widely used for these purposes. Current state-of-the-art forecast models provide deterministic K p predictions using a variety of methods – including empirically-derived functions, physics-based models, and neural networks – but do not provide uncertainty estimates associated with the forecast. This paper provides a sample methodology to generate a 3-hour-ahead K p prediction with uncertainty bounds and from this provide a probabilistic geomagnetic storm forecast. Specifically, we have used a two-layered architecture to separately predict storm (K p ≥ 5 – ) and non-storm cases. As solar wind-driven models are limited in their ability to predict the onset of transient-driven activity we also introduce a model variant using solar X-ray flux to assess whether simple models including proxies for solar activity can improve the predictions of geomagnetic storm activity with lead times longer than the L1-to-Earth propagation time. By comparing the performance of these models we show that including operationally-available information about solar irradiance enhances the ability of predictive models to capture the onset of geomagnetic storms and that this can be achieved while also enabling probabilistic forecasts.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Two-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic model of emerging magnetic flux in the solar atmosphere

The nonlinear undular mode of the magnetic buoyancy instability in an isolated horizontal magnetic flux embedded in a two-temperature layered atmosphere (solar corona-chromosphere/photosphere) is investigated using a two-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic code. The results show that the flux sheet with beta of about 1 is initially located at the bottom of the photosphere, and that the gas slides down the expanding loop as the instability develops, with the evacuated loop rising as a result of enhanced magnetic buoyancy. The expansion of the magnetic loop in the nonlinear regime displays self-similar behavior. The rise velocity of the magnetic loop in the high chromosphere (10-15 km/s) and the velocity of downflow noted along the loop (30-50 km/s) are consistent with observed values for arch filament systems.

Shibata, K.↗

E3SMv3 ‘Nephele’ Perturbed Parameter Ensemble Value-Added Product for ENA, SGP, NSA, and Global Means

Processed output from the E3SMv3 Nephele perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE). This product contains global means of present-day (using 2010 aerosol forcings) and preindustrial (using 1850 aerosol forcings) monthly and daily global-mean quantities, as well as hourly mean quantities at the E3SMv3 model grid cell closest to the ENA, SGP, and NSA ARM sites. In this PPE, the E3SMv3 model was run for 27 months in an atmosphere-only configuration with free tropospheric winds nudged to reanalysis. Each ensemble member represents a unique combination of 25 model parameter values (in the microphysics, convective microphysics, and aerosol schemes) that were perturbed randomly and simultaneously. The E3SMv3 default configuration is included as member 0. See https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.174907165.57104591/v1 (in review) for more information on the Nephele PPE and the perturbed parameters.

Model atmospheric temperature↗

Modeling the electrochemical behavior and interfacial junction profiles of bipolar membranes at solar flux relevant operating current densities

A 1-dimensional, multi-physics model that accounts for the migration and diffusion of solution species, electrostatics, and chemical reactions, in particular water dissociation (WD), at bipolar membrane (BPM) interfaces was developed to study the electrochemical behavior of bipolar membranes (BPMs) at solar flux relevant operating current densities (tens of mA cm -2 ). Significant partial current densities for WD were observed at BPM voltages much less than the equilibrium voltage, e.g., 59 mV × ΔpH from both experiments and modeling. The co-ion leakage across the BPM at pH differentials accounted for the early presence of the partial current density for WD. Two distinctive electric field dependent WD pathways, the un-catalyzed pathway and the catalyzed pathway, were quantitatively and parametrically studied to improve the turn-on potential of the BPM. The catalyzed pathway accounted for the majority of the partial current density for WD at low voltages, while the un-catalyzed pathway dominated the WD at relatively high voltages. Significant WD was observed only within the interfacial CL (<5 nm), in which a large electric field was present. To improve the electrochemical behavior and the turn-on potential of BPMs, the impacts of the pKa of the immobilized WD catalysts, the electric-field dependent rate constant, the thickness of the catalyst layer and fixed charge density in BPMs on the partial current densities for WD were studied systematically. In addition, the electrochemical behavior and concentration profiles of BPMs in a buffered electrolyte were studied and contrasted with those in an un-buffered electrolyte from both modeling and experiments.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

MHD waves on solar magnetic flux tubes - Tutorial review

Some of the highly simplified models that have been developed for solar magnetic flux tubes, which are intense photospheric-level fields confined by external gas pressure but able to vary rapidly with height, are presently discussed with emphasis on the torsional Alfven mode's propagation, reflection, and non-WKB properties. The 'sausage' and 'kink' modes described by the thin flux-tube approximation are noted. Attention is also given to the surface waves and resonance absorption of X-ray-emitting loops, as well as to the results of recent work on the resonant instabilities that occur in the presence of bulk flows.

Hollweg, Joseph V.↗

Cirrus microphysics and radiative transfer - Cloud field study on 28 October 1986

An analysis of remote-sensing measurements which had detected an inhomogeneous cloud structure, at 6-11 km altitude, in the data acquired during the FIRE 86 experiment in a 75 x 50 km cirrus cloud field, has derived fluxes whose comparison with modeled fluxes imply a modeling-based underestimation of both solar reflectivity/attenuation and downward IR fluxes. Reconciliation of model results with measurements can be achieved either by adding large concentrations of ice crystals or by altering the backscattering properties of ice crystals.

Kinne, Stefan↗

A model study of the response of mesospheric ozone to short-term solar ultraviolet flux variations

An investigation is conducted in order to determine the relative importance of several modeled processes in controlling the magnitude and phase of the mesospheric ozone response. A detailed one-dimensional modeling study of the mesospheric ozone response to solar UV flux variations is conducted to remove some of the deficiencies in previous studies. This study is also used to examine specifically the importance of solar zenith angle, self-consistent calculation of water vapor abundance, and temperature feedback with a nonlocal thermodynamic equilibrium radiation model. The photochemical model is described, and the assumptions made for the purpose of comparing model results with the observed ozone response obtained from a statistical analysis of Solar Mesosphere Explorer data (Keating et al., 1987) are discussed. The numerical results for the theoretical ozone response are presented. The results of selected time-dependent calculations are considered to illustrate the degree to which a relatively simple model of the mesosphere is able to capture the major characteristics of the observed response.

Summers, M. E.↗

Radiative forcing of the Venus mesosphere. I - Solar fluxes and heating rates

A radiative-transfer model has been used to derive the structure and amplitude of the solar fluxes and heating rates in the Venus mesosphere, accounting for absorption and scattering extinction sources that encompass CO2, H2O, SO2, and H2SO4 aerosols as well as an unidentified UV absorber. The unknown substance that causes the observed cloud-top UV contrasts is responsible for most of the absorption of sunlight within the upper cloud deck; this contributes to solar heating rates of the order of 6 K/day at levels near 65 km. These results are judged sufficiently reliable for use in numerical dynamical models of the Venus atmosphere.

Crisp, D.↗

The 200- to 300-nm radiation field in the stratosphere - Comparison of models with observation

The SABE 1 experiment (Herman and Mentall, 1982) measured the direct and scattered solar radiation at wavelengths between 190 and 320 nm from a balloon floating at 40 km altitude. We use state of the art radiative transfer models together with cross sections and solar flux data commonly used in modeling of the stratosphere to calculate the direct and scattered radiation at 40 km. The comparison between theory and experiment made by Herman and Mentall (1982) is extended. Significant discrepancies in the ratio of the scattered to direct flux not discussed in their work were found in the Schumann-Runge band and above 280 nm. Possible reasons for the differences are discussed.

Kylling, A.↗